during 12 years of war, but now syria's druze are protesting in their heartland. they're demanding bashar al-assad to step down. but why now? what's really behind their anger? and could these demonstrations gain momentum? this is inside story. welcome to the program. weeks of demonstrations in

southern syria against rising costs have escalated against bashar al-assad. the protests are taking place in the druze community. lots to discuss with our guests. but first, our reporter sets the scene. reporter: anger on the streets of syria. demonstrations that began weeks ago sparked by surging inflation have transformed into calls for political change. >> we would like to send a message to authorities. even if you distribute gas for free or planes shower from the sky.

reporter: rallies are centered in the province of where the druze are. they are seeking to oust bashar al-assad. the rising cost of living is leading to public criticism, where residents use smart cards to buy goods. >> i am a proud syrian but i am not proud of the first lady's gifts which is the smartcard. the card will kill us. reporter: the civil war has taken a toll on syria. much of the countries infrastructure is destroyed and the economy is in shambles. the local currency is trading at 47 pounds to the dollar at the

start of the conflict. >> i have four children from the first to 10th grade. the cost for stationary for each child is $15. prices have doubled over the past year. reporter: so far, there has been no reaction from the government known for its swept crackdown on dissent. in 2011, they responded vibrantly to peaceful protest, leading to a complex civil war. the fighting has killed more than half a million people and dispersed millions more. the united nations says most of the population has been pushed into property. with soaring prices, the calls for political change in syria are growing louder once more.

imran: let's bring our guests. executive director of syrian emergency task force, nonprofit that focuses on political advocacy and humanitarian aid. professor and middle eastern studies director at smith college. and joshua landis, director of the center for middle east studies at oklahoma university. he writes a daily newsletter on syrian politics. i would like to begin with stephen. this is a community that has largely been very loyal to president bashar al-assad.

they have given their blessing to the protest but have stopped short of calling for the removal of bashar al-assad. how worrying is this for the president? >> i think this has to be seen as a deeply troubling development by the regime. i would not describe the druze community is deeply loyal. they have remained neutral, but they have taken steps like resisting conscription for young men in the druze community. there has been a calculated position in relation to the regime and the conflict and we have seen that collapse in the last several weeks as economic shocks have pushed the druze community and syrians all over the country beyond a tipping point that would prevent them from publicly expressing their dissatisfaction with the regime.

this is an enormous problem because this is a regime that does not at the moment have the resources to respond constructively to the economic crisis that syrians are experiencing. it is difficult to see a way out of this crisis for the regime if they crackdown. they risk pushing the druze and others more forcefully into the opposition. if they do not, they risk empowering those who are dissatisfied with the regime and bad is a large number of people. so this is a huge issue for the regime, it is a huge problem. the regime has no easy choices at the moment. imran: no easy choices. would you agree with that? >> i would agree, especially with the part that the druze community have not been historically loyal.

at the beginning of the nonviolent protests, the druze community have been trying to balance being able to speak out and at the same time make sure they are safe. now 17 days of protests saying how they really feel about the bashar al-assad regime. i think it is quite clear that the druze community have very much understood what the regime is. the road is one that is complete

darkness. it is important to highlight those who are standing up calling for a political transition, the implementation of the security council that until today has been adopted but never really gone anywhere while the world turns away from the conflict. imran: let me bring in joshua. are we looking at a syrian revolution 2.0? >> no, we are not. syrians are in a terrible situation. the poverty is extreme. the currency has been collapsing. in a sense, sanctions from europe and the united states have been working. and we see this uprising going on in the government-controlled zones also going on in the american control zone. syrians are in a very bad

position. all of these various regimes, whether it is the opposition, are all very dictatorial. this presents a terrible problem for bashar al-assad. the flags that are being flown in the druze region are the druze flags with five stripes of colors. you see very few of the rebel flags with three stars. and that is a statement on the part of the druze. they are calling for the fall of the regime, but they are not embracing entirely the revolution that broke out in 2011. and this has been a dilemma for the uprising because there has been deep divisions among syrians. imran: stephen, this idea that

we are talking about a divided syria never really apply to the loyalist areas. it is something new. traditionally speaking, president bashar al-assad would have crackdown on this almost straightaway. it is 17 days into the protests and this suggests he is taking a softer approach. >> i think the senior figures in the regime recognize very well the difficult consequences that would follow crackdown against the druze community. i imagine that the conversations happening in the presidential palace right now are about the trade-offs associated with violent repression of the kind of regime used repeatedly over the past 12 years, as opposed to finding some strategy of accommodation that my fine a way

to tamp down on these very risible -- visible expressions of its failure to govern and provide the basic necessities of economic life for ordinary people. there is almost without any question of quite intense debate underway whether or when they crackdown will be needed. i will be surprise if we do not see a shift to some increased level of violence on the part of the regime as these protests develop. it is precisely because of the effect they are having in which they are inspiring syrians in other areas, including in loyalist parts of the country where quite expressions of defiance are now being heard. i want to respond to the comment about sanctions working because

i think we also need to recognize that what makes this crisis difficult for the regime is that there are lots of vectors of economic suffering. there is the destruction caused by the war by the regime and its russian sponsors. there is the corruption of the regime itself and there is the collapse of the lebanese economy. while sanctions are certainly one piece of the broader picture that defined syria's economic crisis, we need to be careful about not exaggerating its role. imran: one of the things that is a surprise for me, i was talking to a few syrian friends, and they are saying that if we did this in damascus, they would crackdown straightaway.

would you agree with that? >> i think the regime makes different calculations in terms of how it deals with people that are rising against them. and every one of these protests was the 1959 flag used by the syrian revolution. you have people inspired in other areas. there were activists that came out and stood with the druze. we know why happens in the regime jails. they torture men, women, children. to your question, i think in

damascus if the regime looks and sees there is a sunni neighborhood, he has little problem going out there and arresting, killing. he also needs to preserve an image as someone who is trying to say i protect. we saw when sweden came out against him, he allow for isis to go in there and even came out and said extremists will come out and slaughter you. it is a very mean the political and vindictive regime. -- a very vindictive and -- regime. he has different ways of dealing

with these different areas of the country. they are all united to see an end to this brutal regime. they want to see a transition to something different and they deserve that. i do agree in damascus it is much more dangerous. he has put up security forces in different areas. worried about renewed protests there. it is truly courageous what the people are doing. imran: it is a very interesting strategy of treating different areas slightly differently. as there is becoming this united voice, that is the question, is there a united voice? whether they are doing it

quietly or whether they are on the streets. >> there are some definite similarities between all of the regions that are calling for the end of the regime. the problem for the demonstrators is that in sweida, there is about 3000 demonstrators. and that will not overturn this regime. the regime is willing to use brutal force against the uprising and it has. and it has won in part because europe and the united states were fearful of what the opposition would bring. that is both al qaeda and isis. this was the downfall of the rebellion. have there been a real unity, we would have seen a different outcome.

the united states and europe would have pumped in real arms and help them win. at no point in this uprising was the u.s. or europe willing to see the destruction of the syrian army. imran: are you saying that this uprising in sweida could be armed by the united states in order to get rid of bashar al-assad? >> no, i think america has given up on the rebellion and that is very important because i do not see a way that the rebels and the people who are suffering terribly in the druze region are going to overturn the regime. and i do not believe that the opposition in syria today is going to be able through demonstrations to overthrow this regime which has shown time and time again its willingness to

use force and the militaries against demonstrators. imran: bashar al-assad has won this civil war. he did it with the support of russia and iran. where are russia and iran right now? both of them are busy. both of those countries have their own problems. in syria on their agenda anymore? >> i think syria remains on the agenda for both countries. in the russian case, the scale of the military resources it has been prepared to commit has declined. but otherwise i am the diplomatic front and the economic front, i do not see any

significant holdback in the level of support that iran and russia are providing to the bashar al-assad regime. there has been speculation about the effects of russia's invasion of ukraine on the balance of influence between iran and russia inside of syria. with a lot of speculation that iran has benefited in terms of its relative balance of influence over the regime. that may well be true. but i do not think we have seen any significant decline in the support for the regime from either of its main international sponsors. whether the regime has won is the big question that these protests confront the regime with. it is now went missing large scale -- witnessing a

large-scale uprising back has spilled over into other parts of the country. the protests signal the failure of the regime at least in economic terms of its legitimacy. and i agree with josh whyle that these protesters are not on their own going to overthrow the regime, but they totally undermined the narrative of victory and legitimacy that is happening at a time when the normalization process that arab states have embarked on has been failing. it comes at a moment when the regime really has no resources in which to respond to these forces. it will increase subsidy cuts this month. i think we need to see this as a significant crack in this narrative of victory that the

regime has tried to put forward. imran: if i understand this correctly, you just came back from syria with senior american politicians. what were they telling you? >> i went into -- there were a couple of congressional delegations that met with syrian opposition coalitions. i also took three members of congress to northwest syria into the border of the turkish-syria border. they met with first responders. they met with the syrian opposition coalition that are

calling for a real roadmap that allows us to achieve [indiscernible] and we discussed sweida. there was a firm commitment by these members of congress that when they come back to the united states they will pressured the biden administration to help protect lives in syria and move things in the right eruption. -- direction. perhaps the biden administration has put syria on the back burner. but there are many within the congress that continued to know exactly what is happening in syria. we keep saying bashar al-assad

has won. he had the entire russian air force and iranian backed troops and he still does not control the northwest or the northeast. sweida is protesting against him all the time. i think that is an important reminder that the syrian people has survived for 13 years. and that is truly inspirational. imran: what bashar al-assad won is another show entirely. josh whyle, -- josh, there was a

commitment to talk about syria. what can the u.s. do right now? >> the u.s. can do very little unfortunately. we are seeing in the northeast where the u.s. holds 30% of syrian territory that there is -- americans juggling this boiling territory with two different nationals aspirations, the kurds and dear ribs. -- arabs. this is the syrian dilemma. it is a multiethnic and multireligious territory where people want different things. unfortunately, the regime has ruled with brutality and it has kept. imran: sorry, we are running out

of time. stephen, we talked about russia and iran. but there is an arab role in all of this. syria was welcomed back to the arab league. is there anybody that can have influence in the arab world that can make a difference? >> this is one of the challenges of normalization, which is how to translate it into influence inside of syria. so far the regime is determined to insulate itself from the kind of pressure that normalization might be expected to bring. it wants to benefit from reintegration without making reciprocal steps that would respond to the concerns of arab neighbors. that includes avoiding a return to the levels of violence of the past. it does seemed that there is much leverage that they can use

to try to temper whatever path the bashar al-assad regime makes about whether to repress or not. imran: very quickly. is the arab league useful in this or is any useless debating society? >> the arab league has been pretty useless in general. they were worried about iran. they welcomed the leader with massive fanfare. they have gone against their own interests. they put the leverage over bashar al-assad and he now has leverage over them.

imran: i want to thank all of our guests. i want to think -- thank you as well. you can see the program any time by visiting our website at aljazeera.com. you can also join the conversation on x. from me and our team, goodbye for now.

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