♪ >> will azerbaijan take full control of nagorno karabakh? armenian separatists in the region agreed to disarm after a quick assault by baku. they are also considering reintegrating into azerbaijan. so, is this the end of this decades long conflict? this is "inside story." ♪ mohammed: hello and welcome to the program. i'm mohammed jamjoom. in only 24 hours of fighting, azerbaijan has changed the facts

on the ground in nagorno-karabakh. a new cease-fire with ethnic groups appears to put the country's forces in full control of the region. azerbaijan and armenia have battled over the enclave for decades, but this time armenia kept out of the fighting, leaving ethnic armenian groups in the region to fend for themselves. in the coming months, the future of those groups will be decided, along with their integration into the azerbaijani state. we will go to our panel in just a moment. but for, fenton monaghan has this report. reporter: after a lightning offensive, azerbaijan now says it is in full control of nagorno-karabakh. ethnic armenians in the disputed region agreed to lay down their weapons and disband their forces . >> as a result of the start of the antiterrorist measures, as a vision has restored it 70. the events that occurred yesterday and today at the same table have a positive impact on the peace process armenia and azerbaijan. i want to hope that our steps,

the result of antiterrorist measures, will eliminate the obstacles that were put forward, call it what you want, from the armenian side and this will create a new reality, long-term peace in the south caucuses. reporter: the enclave is internationally recognized as part of azerbaijan. but large part were controlled by ethnic armenians with close links to the armenian government. two wars have been fought over the region since the fall of the soviet union. the last conflict in 2020 saw azerbaijan make sizable gains. in armenia, the latest defeat sparked protests. many say ethnic armenians and nagorno-karabakh were abandoned. they want prime minister nikol pashinyan to stand down. pashinyan says the armenian military wasn't involved in the latest fighting or the cease fire process. >> we hope that military escalation will not continue, because stability is very important for future projects.

reporter: thousands of russian peacekeepers field to stop the fighting. they helped evacuate around 10,000 ethnic armenian civilians. now they will monitor the new cease fire. as azerbaijan seeks to reintegrate the region and its people. fintech monaghan for "inside story." ♪ mohammed: for more on all of this, i am joined by are guests. in istanbul, is esmira jafarova, a board member of the center of analysis of international relations. she's a former azerbaijan diplomat and adviser to the minister of energy. in yerevan, is arsen kharatyan editor-in-chief of aliq media, an armenian-georgian media platform. he is also the former foreign policy adviser to the armenian prime minister. also in istanbul is matthew bryza, former u.s. mediator to the nagorno-karabakh conflict. he is the former u.s. ambassador to azerbaijan. warm welcome to you all and thanks for joining us today on "inside story." esmira, let me start with you today.

azerbaijan now intends to bring nagorno-karabakh under full control. how easy or difficult will that be? guest: thank you very much, first of all, for the invitation. azerbaijan conducted a short uh antiterrorist operation, which is aimed at only targets, provit no civilian objects were even harmed or where the object of the operation. the reason was that recently, two days ago, seven azerbaijani policemen were killed as a result of a landmine explosion planted in azerbaijani land via the infiltration of armenian forces after the war was over. we have been warning about the threat for a long time and also about the existence of around 10,000 armenian billy show. they were all unheeded.

as a result, all of these events happening one after another, are a short, local antiterrorist operation. today there was a meeting with representatives of the karabakh armenians in the region. the commitment and abiding by the agreement of the cease-fire that was reached yesterday. one of those results of the agreements was that the militia have to disarm and have to go through the disarmament. and after that, of course, there is also calls for the discussion of the rites and the conditions of the karabakh armenians. these issues were discussed today and it was only the first meeting. there is a agreement for a follow-up meeting as well and they will request that karabakh armenians satisfy their need for fuel and humanitarian aid and

those needs be met with satisfaction. so there will be a follow-up. but i am saying is -- yes? mohammed: sorry to interrupt you. let me get back into some of those details in depth with you shortly. arsen prime minister nikol pashinyan has said that armenian military was not involved in the latest fighting and not in the cease fire process. what does that mean going forward? does it mean he has accepted the outcome of this? guest: thank you, again, for inviting me to the show. not only the prime minister announced that armenian military was not present in karabakh, everybody knows that, it has been true the last two years. as of the summer of 2021, there was no armenian military whatsoever. it was all taken out. russian peacekeepers have been there watching it. azerbaijanis have been controlling it very, very

tightly. so they know that. i will have to address two points that our colleague has pointed out, talking about not touching civilians. we have over 200 people dead, including civilians and children . over 400 people injured. the whole world has been seeing how stepanakert has been shelled and bombed. villages have been destroyed and people evacuated outside of their homes. so i don't even know how you guys are talking about not attacking or not targeting civilians, but talking about the armenian military for armenia's involvement, armenia has said it will not go to war with azerbaijan. however, it is open to receiving people who would like to leave. from what i can understand from our contacts in karabakh, the situation is so dire that i think 80% of the population would leave the place right away

, coming to armenia. basically because they don't have anything -- they don't have electricity, food, basic supplies. with regards to the meeting today between karabakh armenians and azerbaijani officials, it was the first meeting. armenians are not there were several points where they had no agreement. i don't know how it will move forward. azerbaijan is announcing this is one of many. we don't even hear what exactly armenians were offered. i don't think anybody has confidence in possibly leaving under azerbaijani rule after the attack from various friends in karabakh. and if our colleagues from azerbaijan are actually genuine about any integration or dialogue, they should start killing our civilians and population in nagorno-karabakh. mohammed: matthew, what we have seen transpire in the past couple of days, from your vantage point, does it mean the

end of this decades long conflict? guest: i think so. i mean, i have been working on trying to mediate this conflict since 2001 and they have been moments where there seemed to be progress and then backtracking, but the progress was a list of words coming up with a theoretical framework to settle the conflict. in this case, that framework was established already through the cease fire statement of november 10, 2020 after the second karabakh war. there was an obstacle in moving from that framework to a final peace treaty. we never talked about a peace treaty in the past. now a peace treaty i think is definitely within sight. the president of the european council, the u.s. secretary of state, have been leading one mediation process. the russians have as well, of their own. i think what was really the big problem that was blocking the finalization of a peace treaty has been the presence of weapons

, called them karabakh militia, azerbaijanis called them armenian forces. in any case, as long as those military capabilities where there, there was a temptation by extremists who oppose pashinyan in armenia, who don't want a settlement, to be able to put pressure on him. also, that military presence served as an irritant for the azerbaijani side and undermined any sense of trust. with that military presence gone, i don't see any serious obstacle to a peace treaty except pashinyan's own survival, physically and politically, because he has some very strong opponents now in yerevan who can't believe that he didn't bring armenia on the side of the karabakh armenians. elizabeth: one of the big questions right now is how azerbaijan will handle the issue of the ethnic armenian population of nagorno-karabakh? you were talking a little earlier about details of the plan thus far. from your vantage point, how to go forward with that?

because in yerevan, we have seen protesters who have voiced fears that azerbaijan might be poised to launch a crackdown on ethnic armenians in nagano karabakh. guest: first of all, let me address a point raised by armenian guest before him. when the military operations started, there was a notification sent to all civilians living in karabakh in order to make sure they were evacuated. azerbaijani authorities also worked with the russian peacekeepers in the cases of evacuation of the civilians from those areas. the humanitarian corridors were also created for them. so the problem is that armenia created and located their military fortification at near the inhabited areas. maybe there could have been some collateral damage, but those numbers are very, very inflated, so i wouldn't go with those numbers. we took all measures of percussions against civilian harm.

the second issue is about the presence of militias raised and that was the number one security threat to azerbaijan and deliberated azerbaijani lands, and the reintegration of karabakh armenians. there is a human dimension also to this issue. 7500 azerbaijanis cannot go back to the liberated lands because of the landmine threat, because of the existence of the illegal militias in those territories. and nobody is ever talking about that. again, if we are talking about human issues, the human dimension, we shouldn't turn a blind eye to the plight of azerbaijanis that were expelled from those territories 30 years ago. back to your question of what azerbaijan is planning to do to integrate karabakh armenians azerbaijani society, we have reached out to them in a number of occasions, and it was only in the first meeting between azerbaijani authorities and karabakh armenians a couple of months ago. but they refused another meeting invitation because the separatist forces in armenia

were dragging them down and preventing their meetings with azerbaijani authorities. there was also planned to be another meeting before this meeting, before the military operations started, but they refused to come to this meeting. we didn't have to go through this, violence aren't military operations in order to reach out to karabakh armenians for the dialogue. we have been reaching out to them and extending our hand took on the seat and dialogue with them for a long time, but we were back down and kept back by the separatist forces. under these conditions, now they have agreed to talk. there are plans azerbaijani authorities are putting forward for their reintegration, for their cultural and educational rates. this is all under discussion. we are hoping to find common ground. this is only the first meeting and i am sure there will be more to come. mohammed: arsen, i can see you want to jump in.

i have to ask you something that matthew brought up. he talked about the fact that what has happened in nagorno-karabakh has brought some peril potentially to the political survival of the armenian prime minister. i want to ask you about that, because on wednesday, you had thousands of protesters on the streets of yerevan. they demanded the resignation of the prime minister for his handling of this crisis. i mean, how much does this imperil him politically? guest: it is definitely having an impact domestically, no doubt about it. some of the people who are originally from karabakh who ended up losing their homes and were moved to armenia have legitimate anger. there are also political forces often times linked to external parties. there are people who are angry with this government and they were in the streets, protesting even today. we will talk about political survival. he was talking about physical survival. i don't know about that, we will

see. but can we not -- can we stop fabricating stories? nobody was given a humanitarian corridor. as a vision has been a blockading nagorno-karabakh. we have people dying of starvation. people couldn't karabakh for get out of karabakh for -- people couldn't get out of karabakh for their medical needs. azerbaijan couple of months ago, started talking about we can open the route and you can use azerbaijani territory. the amount of hatred that karabakh armenians are hearing about themselves, the amount of anti-armenian notions that we know exist in azerbaijan -- obviously there is enmity between societies in general, but we are being compared to cats and animals. we are constantly hearing that you either integrate forced integration, or you have to basically make your choices. so right now, in this level of rhetoric both on the state-led televisions, on the official

levels, how do you imagine nagorno-karabakh armenians getting along and saying, you know what, it all didn't happen. we can live with you. give us some rights and we will get along with that. my understanding, and what was we see now is that nagorno-karabakh armenians are not only fighting for their lives on a daily and hourly basis, but they have no trust and confidence in any possible cohabitation, which i think in the long run, is a huge mistake azerbaijan is making. before we can talk about any form of integration or integration, there must be some kind of dialogue. and reconciliation process. there must be a long process of discussing how we can imagine living together, let alone being reintegrated by force. with regards to armenia proper, i think the next couple of days, we will see what happens. we do see some kind of a connection between these attacks

in karabakh and the protests in yerevan. we also see the big boy in the neighborhood, in the region, russia, having peacekeepers on the ground and being unable, or unwilling to actually take care of or implement their mandate. and -- mohammed: arsen. sorry to interrupt you, but i do want to ask you more about russia's role in this. but i want to go to matthew. i saw you reacting to some of what arsen was saying there. i will give you an opportunity to respond. guest: in all of these 21 years i talked about working on the karabakh issue in the white house, in the state department, with the current president's father, with this current president, with the armenian side -- the president of azerbaijan has consistently said that azerbaijan's goal is the reintegration of the armenian community into azerbaijan at the end of this process. he was consistent throughout the second karabakh war. he is consistent now. and so i really believe that is the goal.

i also agree with him that you can't flip a switch and say, ok, everybody is integrated. because the law says you are azerbaijani citizens. there need to be this long dialogue, guarantees for the protection of the cultural, economic, or political rights, the security of the earth -- ethnic armenian community. it will take a long time to build the requisite trust, the process perhaps began today with that meeting in yevlakh. it will take a while, but it is underway. elizabeth: with regard to the meetings taking place in yevlakh, do you expect russia will be heavily involved in talks going forward? guest: thank you very much. first of all, if i may quickly react to armenian representatives, nobody said that reintegration has to happen by force, those were definitely not my words. it has to be a dialogue. that is what i was talking

about. it has to be a process. nobody expects these two nations that have lived apart and in animosity for decades, could just reintegrate overnight. so it's a process and a dialogue. but we do not want armenian proper, or armenian nationalist or revancheist forces to hinder this process. that is what is happening. they prevented armenians of karabakh from getting into dialogue with azerbaijan. that was also the problem. also about the corridor, as a was offering corridors for a long time. however, this road was blocked by concrete from the separatists who didn't want to get any aid through this road because they wanted to operate without any checkpoints because it was easier to bring in militias and landmines into azerbaijani territories and then create problems to azerbaijan security. and then there was an agreement

reached on september 1 that both routes should have open simultaneously, which was also fought by the armenian side. we have been extending lots of proposals and ideas of cooperation. however, they were all blocked, because armenia was preventing it and they just wanted to have the road closed without any checkpoints. that did not happen. now both roads are operating simultaneously. this is what as abrasion was proposing in the first place. what about russia's role? russia has peacekeepers in the place and as abrasion was cooperating -- azerbaijan was cooperating with them when it came to the security provisions in the areas where russian peacekeepers were deployed. this is not something we would like to discuss with the presence of third parties. we would like to talk to karabakh armenians, who are our

citizens directly, and discuss their problems ourselves, which happened today. i don't know if you have seen the statement of a their presidential administration, but there was clearly some progress. let's talk to the karabakh armenians themselves. listen to their complaint, which was happening today again. their complaints and their demands were met. the azerbaijani government will take steps to provide them with fuel, humanitarian aid that they asked for, their fuel and heating system for the schools, for their hospitals and for other necessary objects for survival, they will be provided for them. so again, this is the first step in the dialogue. there should be more steps. it's a process. it is a dialogue. there shouldn't be any outside interference. mohammed: arsen. i want to get back to the pointyou are making about russia in asking about the fact that

many in armenia are criticizing what they see as the failures of russia. russia brokered a cease-fire, russia has had a peacekeeping force in nagorno-karabakh since 2020. many in armenia say russia didn't do enough to protect the lives of ethnic armenians. how much anger is there now about russia? guest: there are protests in front of the russian embassy. the society is shifting in its, navy understanding of what russia's role has been, and is. i will get to that. two things that need to be clear, you are talking about the azerbaijani guest is talking about both roads being opened? it's not true. one corridor was opened two or three times just to allow some people with critical care needs to be moved out by the red cross , but nothing was allowed to come in. as you well know. you talked about opening a road. that is it.

take it or leave it, is what we are hearing from azerbaijan. this is very much a continuous policy of ethnic cleansing. you are making a situation for the people in nagorno-karabakh which are so unbearable that they don't imagine how they are going to be living with azerbaijanis and under the azerbaijani state. i'm not even going to get into the rights issues and staff. right now while the first meeting in yevlakh what's happening, spent -- first meeting in yevlakh what's happening, stepanakert was being showed. we were seeing bombs. can you explain why you were doing that? on the one hand, you were calling the people to speak with them and at the same time you are continuing to send shells even near the hospitals, the civilian infrastructure. azerbaijani soldiers are inside, almost inside stepanakert, and people are thinking, next thing is tomorrow night we'll wake up and we're going to see azerbaijani flags here? this is creating a situation where people have no other

choice but to ask and beg for evacuation. i don't imagine in this situation, within these conditions, as nice packaging as you can try to give us, people are devastated. people became homeless. people have not had basic supplies, let alone medications and other things for months now. and after shelling their living areas, you're telling them reintegration. that is what is going to happen. take it or leave it, is what we are hearing basically. pushing out the population of nagorno-karabakh by every single step that you are making as much as today, the footage coming out that karabakh armenians and as abrasion is met. you call the azerbaijani president's office and said this is one of many meetings. i am not sure if many meetings are going to happen if we are constantly worried about finding our kids. right now what i am seeing on

social media, whenever they have internet in nagorno-karabakh, people are asking, have you seen this boy? ? have you seen my parents. people are lost. they don't have information. people don't know what is happening. their communication and basic supplies is cut off. . they feel like the next thing that is meant to happen is been to be an attack on everyone. mohammed: matthew, there are those questioning if russia will actually be able to play an effective role in peacekeeping going forward. many have suggested that russia is simply too stretched because of the war in ukraine. what do you say? guest: as much as my government and i personally locked horns with my russian counterparts on georgia when russia invaded georgia in 2008, i worked very well with them when it came to mediation of the karabakh conflict and found them to be professional and creative, including including foreign minister lavrov and then-president medvedev.

the peacekeepers are basically performing their tasks. the peacekeepers' mandate is not to intervene on the territory of azerbaijan. karabakh is part of azerbaijan. the peacekeepers' mandate is to come in to locations as armenian military forces withdrew. that is what the november 9 and 10th cease-fire statement said. until there was this clarification that there are no more armenian-affiliated military forces in karabakh, it was not in the mandate of the russian peacekeepers to go there. they don't have a mandate of peace enforcement. their mandate is not to stop azerbaijan from taking what it believes is a legitimate security operation. they are not peacemakers. they are peacekeepers. so, i am hoping that now there is a peace that is going to be capped and that the russian peacekeepers will provide a sense of security for the

armenian community that will remain in karabakh, however big or small it may be. mohammed: alright, we have run out of time, so we will have to leave our conversation there. thanks so much to all of our guests, esmira jafarova, arsen kharatyan, and matthew bryza. and thank you, too, for watching. you can see the program again anytime by visiting our website, aljazeera.com. and for further discussion, go to our facebook page, that is facebook.com/ajinsidestory. you can also join the conversation on x. our handle is @ajinsidestory. from me, mohammed jamjoom and the whole team here, bye for now. ♪

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