>> they couldn't you the au, nato, and funding the war in ukraine has warning slovakia's general election. robert fico process populist party got 23% in the right to form the next government. so what is behind this result in ukraine's neighbor? this is "inside story." ♪ emily: hello and welcome to the

program, i am emily angwin. slovakia's former leftist prime minister robert fico has won saturday's parliamentary election. he stood on a platform critical of the e.u., nato, and funding the war in ukraine. his party won nearly 1/4 of the vote and a chance to form the next government. if he succeeded, it could mean big changes for the nation's foreign policy. since russia launched its war last year, nato member slovakia has supported ukraine, supplying weapons and welcoming refugees, but is that about to change? we will put that to our guests. first, this report. reporter: the 3-term former prime minister staging a political comeback in slovakia. robert fico's leftist party defied exit polls and saturdays parliamentary election securing nearly 23% of the vote on a pro -russian and anti-u.s. campaign. the populist leader has doubled

down on his stance of ending military aid to ukraine and is now calling for talks to end the war. >> slovakia and people in slovakia have more serious problems than ukraine, that is all i can say at this moment. we believe ukraine is a great tragedy for everybody. if our party help us to form the government, no matter if it gets the post of the prime minister, we will do that we can also within the e.u. to reach peace negotiations as soon as possible. reporter: robert fico was forced to step down in 2018 after the murder of an investigative journalist. under his leadership, slovakia was a staunch supporter of ukraine at the time of russia's annexation of crimea in 2014. ♪ the government has also backed kyiv after that russian invasion

last year. it has donated arms and opened its borders to ukrainian refugees. but voters have now supported a party that has promised to focus on domestic issues like the energy crisis, and rising cost-of-living. kyiv has little choice but to accept a seemingly changing reality. >> we respect the choice of the slovak it is too early to say how the election result will affect slovakia's position. we need to wait for the formation of the coalition and then, looking at the composition of this coalition, we can draw the first conclusions. reporter: slovakia became an independent state in 1993, after the breakup of czechoslovakia. this elementary election is being seen as a test of its foreign policy. fico's critics worry that his return to power could lead slovakia to the same path as hungary under prime minister viktor orban, straining ties with the e.u. and nato.

emily: let's take a quick look at where slovakia is located. the former soviet bloc communist nation is now a member of both the e.u. and nato. it shares a border with ukraine and with poland, which has played a major role in efforts to supply weapons to ukraine since russia invaded. to the south is hungary, whose leader, viktor orban, has welcomed fico's win, sharing some of his policies. ♪ let you bring in our guests now. in bratislava is alena kudzko, the vice president of policy and programming of globsec, a public policy think tank. in berlin is ben aris, founder and editor in chief of bne intelli news. he's also the former moscow bureau chief for the daily telegraph. also in bratislava, pavel

dharmesh, a former slovakian foreign prime minister and advisor to slovakia's first president after the breakup of czechoslovakia. a warm welcome to all of you and thank you for joining us on the program. before we look at the broader geopolitical implications of this election, i want to first get your take on the results. were you surprised by fico's win , albeit he does need to form a coalition still, but what does that say about voters in slovakia? guest: it was a very tight election and one of those extremely important ones because they were deciding about policy both at home, and also foreign policy of slovakia. and until the last moment, it was not clear whether he is going to win, or now a second progressive party which happened

to be the second, or the international community got quite interested in this, because the unity of nato, two groupings of which slovakia is a member of since 2004, show that there may be some cracks, similar to hungary which you already mentioned. but i think that today's announcement by robert fico, the winner of the selection, shows that he claimed that there will be no change in foreign in the policy of slovakia, e.u. and nato membership will be a reality. but since his language was rather inflammatory during the election campaign which helped him to come back for a fourth time as prime minister caused all these worries.

in conclusion, i would say that unlike hungary where viktor orban is a very strong politician who has the majority, robert fico does not have a strong majority. he will have to create a coalition comprising of at least three parties. and his second potential strong candidate, former prime minister pellegrini, yesterday very clearly stated that he will join a coalition only on the circumstance that slovakia's position with the e.u. and nato will not be changed. so i don't think that comparison with hungary is accurate. we will see how rhetoric's, -- pre-election rhetoric will be changed during the government formation process which started today, when the president asked robert fico to come up with his proposal for 75-plus members. because slovakia has one chamber

of parliament consisting of 150 deputies. emily: yes, i want to get onto the coalition before we look more closely into the role of slovakia's neighbors. alena, the shape of this government and its policy towards ukraine are really dependent on the makeup of the coalition that is formed. how do you see that laying out? guest: as he mentioned, robert fico has the first opportunity to fund the government as the winner of the elections. he has a couple of options. most likely he will be able to form a coalition of three parties. the third-largest party led by pellegrini, the last party, will be decisive and the votes will be indispensable. but they will also need a third partner. that could be either slovak nationalist party, which is in its orientation, more pro-russian, and would be pushing more in this direction. but they also have an option to include the christian democratic party, which pellegrini prefers,

which is more pro-european and more moderate. emily: one analyst in bratislava, said that for most voters, it was an primarily about ukraine in the selection. it was more about values -- conservatism and liberalism and bread-and-butter issues like food and fuel prices. do you share that view? guest: yes, absolutely. looking at central europe, there is a sort of values fault line that runs down the middle of it. and to the left in western europe, we have this sort of liberal european values, promotion of equality, gender rates, lgbt rights, whereas if you go to the right into what was eastern europe, it is much more based on christian conservative orthodox, family values. there is a basic clash between the two.

moreover, fico in the elections, was campaigning on these sorts of things, that in the new countries of central europe, they are not as on board with the whole e.u. project, the, the values part of it, as we are here in the rest. and also the cost of living, rising inflation food prices, , energy prices and these things are starting to hit the people in the pocket. and after a year and a half of this war, they are starting to get tired of that. so there's a certain fatigue going on within society. emily: pavol, kremlin spokesman dmitry peskov is forecasting war fatigue in the west growing and increasingly exploding opinion. does he have a point? i mean, we are looking at billions of dollars in military aid which has been provided by the west over the past 19 months. guest: definitely the ukraine war played an important role in these elections. but as was said before, it was

much more of these value-driven campaigns and conservative versus liberal and so on and so forth that are playing a very important role. but robert fico was accusing the united states that it, together with the russia basically, that this was a clash between the u.s. and russia on the territory of ukraine. that he was strongly against the sanctions against russia imposed by the e.u. and nato, and also, i think that he was benefiting from pro-russian sentiment which is rather pronounced throughout slovak society. but i don't think that slovakia, which played such an important role in political, humanitarian, economic and military terms vis-a-vis ukraine, that this will disappear, because slovakia is a member of the eurozone.

we are intertwined economically with the e.u.. over 80% of our exports go to the e.u. so robert fico will need to balance his policy vis-a-vis e.u., nato or taken into consideration, our membership obligations and so on. so i don't think that he will just walk out of this. he is a pragmatist. i would suggest that he is such a pragmatist that he will even be able to gather the new cabinet which will announce most likely they government manifesto with adherence to the e.u. and nato, some degree of cooperation also on further military

assistance slovakia still has, , because besides car industry, quite well developed military industry. emily: just picking up on what pavol said, fico has doubled down on his pro-russian stance. he's opposed to sanctions, as we have just heard, and he wants to stop aid to ukraine. how else is he likely to show his work for moscow? wes: we will see. it will depend on the exact composition of the coalition. it is also important to dig a little bit deeper, deeper even in the campaign promises, for example featuring promises that he might potentially stop providing military aid to ukraine. slovakia has already provided an marsai amount of support to ukraine. there is not much slovakia has now installed that could be given to ukraine. so even if this decision is actually going to come to force, it doesn't necessarily mean it will change the situation. but of course, the political

unity in the european union matters. if fico comes tomorrow, it will mean more voices coming from central europe that question support to ukraine at the european level, and, by extension, it will be more difficult for the e.u. to reach consensus, or the decisions will be delayed and potentially watered down. but again,, we still need to see whether he delivers on his campaign promises. emily: i wanted to pick up on two points, first, alena mentioned about the flow of arms not necessarily changing to ukraine. slovakia has already given most of what it can spare. it was the first country to provide ukraine with fighter jets and air defense missiles. so, do you agree that the impact on the ground in ukraine via slovakia will not necessarily change? guest: i think the issue of arms is a key one. as you mentioned, most of the nato members actually depleted

their stocks of arms that they had available, to send to ukraine. they are running out. there was just a defense forum in kyiv at the weekend where they are talking about manufacturing. the e.u. promised $1 billion to invest into new production. so there is a cry or brewing in ukraine, they are running low, and consequently, they have to get these arms from somewhere, by setting up more production. and the stocks remaining are the residual stock they need to protect themselves in case this were escalates and it becomes nato and russia, which is at the a confrontation between nato and russia, which is at the the back of everybody's mind. so ukraine is in a difficult position trying to source these arms. i think the worst has actually run to the end of the road of what it had in stock to give ukraine and now needs to invest in the in the production to make more munitions. that process is already ongoing. emily: as you mentioned, the

west, how closely will it have been watching this election? how will the rest of europe have been watching this election unfold, and what would they be making of it? guest: very closely. as eleanor mentioned, european unity is key here. what surprised everybody was the level of unity that was in the e.u. at the beginning of the war where the sections rolled out were extreme and they brought on a lot of costs on western europe. as a result, soaring energy prices, the energy crisis and the soaring food prices. however long this goes on, it has been about 19 months now, fatigue is building and they are becoming tired of the cost. this election is part of a wider move in europe where you could see some of the countries are unhappy. they want the war to finish. it is costing them too much money. we have this result in slovakia. in hungary, it has already gone away. the greeks are increasing the

amount of oil they are transporting for russia. and when the e.u. try to put this 15% energy cut, most of the countries turned around and said no. the whole story was highlighted with the grain crisis we had recently where poland, slovakia, hungary banned the import of ukrainian grain. their only hard currency earner, because it can left the local markets. so now you have the station, the standby with ukraine for political reasons which everybody is on board with, and then the interference in national interests, the damage into your academic which people are unhappy about. that is putin's game. he's going to spin this war out for as long as it takes to wait for that unity to crumble. we have seen a few cracks. that is what this election result means. it is another crack in the unity. it hasn't broken yet, but it is a worrying sign. emily: speaking of those cracks,

how can the west engage with fico and his potential coalition and not lose slovakia to russia? guest: two points before i answer this question, the slovak ministry of defense in the caretaker government was in kyiv during this meeting of building new industry for military purposes which was in kyiv. today, there is a meeting of foreign ministers of the e.u., kyiv and sierra, the foreign minister is in kyiv. he declared a continuation of support for slovakia to ukraine and so on. lastly also, the new e.u. ambassador to ukraine, a slovak official. so i think for us, this is a country which is occupying our attention and is testing a whole

body of politics in slovakia. i believe that there are two points which are going to show seriousness of slovakia as a member of nato and as a reliable nato member, and providing assistance to the ukraine. it will be the coalition creation and what will be in the government manifesto. secondly, who will become our foreign and defense minister. because my guess is that robert fico will tried not to put an ideologue, but rather, a professional and these two positions, which i believe will try to dilute the suspicion that slovakia is better than hungary, that slovakia is a country that will be undermining the unity of that you and nato. my feeling is that robert fico and his coalition partners will

try to fix some of these damages in the procession of slovakia. lastly, i think that this image issue became quite obvious after exit polls were released which suggested that fico lost and that progressive slovakia 18 elections. when we woke up sunday morning, things were completely different , fico was leading about 5%. but in parliament, he doesn't have such the strength that he could simply divert the country into the hungarian way. emily: sure, and there are a lot of things still to be concerned in relation to the coalition and how that plays out. how best can slovakia engage with the west, given that fico has doubled down on his pro-russian stance earlier today? guest: i think one can expect that robert fico will try to

prove that slovakia will continue to be the partner of the u.s. and nato. he will try to show his suggestion on how peace should be brought in, or something along those lines. emily: ben, i see you shaking your head there. to want to jump in? guest: i don't think he is going to lose slovakia. it remains an e.u. country. nobody is going to go over and support russia after this unprovoked invasion of ukraine that has caused hundreds of thousands of deaths. however, there is a subtle game here of how we exit, the off ramps. that is still not clear because the positions between ukraine and russia are so far apart we

begin to start talking. so we are stuck in this stalemate. the fighting on the ground has also ground plate stalemate and it is the worst of all possible scenarios. the european politicians, i think everyone is looking for an off-ramp of some sort. hungary and slovakia went to see that happen sooner than everybody else because they have serious economic interests and they are suffering serious economic pain from this conflict. but i don't see that there is anything that we can do. for european union members to be captured by russia, it is inconceivable. emily: says we have heard, slovakia, hungary and serbia all have shown significant sympathy for russian president putin. could poland and its upcoming election be next? we see the influence there. guest: poland is a very different country. we can also compare them by

looking at publica finance before the war and also during the war. if poland's sympathy to russia was very low significantly which is a different case in slovakia were between 30%, sometimes 50% of slovaks would say that they consider russia as an important and strategic partner for the country with whom we would like to have good relations in the future. in poland, the situation is different. of course there are parts of polish society who want to pressure their politicians to pay more attention to the kitchen-table issues at home. it doesn't necessarily mean that polish foreign policy will change. i also want to go back to slovakia and emphasized the important point possible was making about the ability of robert fico to make compromises when he needs them. during his previous terms, we saw that he managed very

skillfully to both be friends with russia and maintain very good relations with russia combat and at the same time, be a constructive partner to the e.u. as well. for example, he supported sanctions against russia, so chances are he can be pragmatic again. and by the way, slovakia has a lot to gain by being friends with ukraine and having good relations with ukraine. slovakia definitely wants to be part of the reconstruction of ukraine. it will benefit significantly from a stronger economy in the region, from stronger logistical ties. if we go back to the issue of military supplies, there is a level of pragmatism there as well. what robert fico said is that he was military supplies to up military supplies to ukraine, probably meaning the ones that are paid from the slovak budget. but there is very strong military industry in slovakia who is manufacturing weapons for ukraine, which are paid by external partners. so i think this pragmatism will

also be applied in these cases and such types of contracts will continue. emily: i guess it also comes down to this idea of open ended commitment. as mentioned, it has been 19 months since this war has been going on. we have seen friends and other major european countries approach to that idea of an open-ended commitment. what are you forecasting in terms of the next six months, 12 months? ben? guest: the war will continue. it is clear that they will continue fighting in the winter which is actually cold and there will be difficult conditions. the prospects of any kind of cease-fire, the start of the heating season would be a natural point. assess. there are reports coming out of ukraine about the progress of the counteroffensive. they have been very disappointing. practically no territory has

changed. we're talking about villages on the line of contact. there is no prospect for any kind of breakthrough, which is what the counteroffensive was hoping for, was a repeat of the spectacular success of the kharkiv offensive last september were ukraine look through the lines and we took hundreds of kilometers of territory. this time, they have taken back nothing. at the same time,, both sides just put through their budgets for the year and have increased military spending. putin is clearly in this for the long haul. putin and kremlin will not even think about starting any cease-fire talks until the results of the u.s. presidential election arcane in november, because there is a possibility of change. again, fatigued in the u.s. is very clear. they just took out the ukraine support from the budget bill that just went through yesterday . that is his game. he is hoping for unity to

crumble. he does want the war to end. this is costing russia's economy a huge amount as well and they want to end the war, they want to end the sanctions regime. but my prediction is that we have at least another year of fighting. emily: and pavol, just quickly, how do you think the people of slovakia will be assessing what happened in terms of their parliamentary elections and going forward? guest: i think that we need to expect a continuation of slovakia's membership in the e.u., both of politicians and the people that we are in good or bad members of e.u. and nato. we need to do everything to overcome some of the cracks, disbelief, and help ukraine. i believe that what he was mentioning, russia is expecting

that america may change politics after the elections because donald trump would fix things within 24 hours, and he is still a very hot candidate. so let's keep our fingers crossed that the u.s. will be leading all of nato and we in the e.u. will be united in confronting this war and other big challenges which are ahead of us. emily: well, we have run out of time. we have certainly covered a lot of ground and we appreciate your insights. thank you to all our guests, alena kudzko, ben aris and bubble diminish. and -- alena kudzko, ben aris and pavol demesh. and thank you, too, for watching. you can see the program anytime by visiting our website, aljazeera.com. and for further discussion, go to our facebook page, that is facebook.com/ajinsidestory. you can also join the conversation on x, formally known as twitter. our handle is @ajinsidestory. from me, emily angwin, and the entire team here in doha, bye for now. ♪