mohammed: european with ukraine's hopes for eu leadership and focus. some within the block are less enthusiastic. can you become a reality and what are the difficulties? this is inside story. ♪ mohammed: welcome to the program. for ukraine there has been plenty of financial and military

support in europe since russia invaded last year and a war that is seen as a battleground between east and west. but kyiv is looking for support on another front. a country once joined with russia and the soviet union but now wants to join the european union sharing the benefits enjoyed by member states. powerful eu figures such as ursula von der leyen back ukraine's desire. but making it come our reality is far from simple. not everyone shares her enthusiasm. there are worries about the price tag and impact on existing members as well as corruption in ukraine. let's take a look at where we are talking about. ukraine is here in the center of europe. ordered by russia and belarus the eu is made of 27 countries across the continent. ukraine shares the border with several eu member straits -- member states. it is one of the discussion

points of the european collateral -- european political community. reporter: the arrival of the ukrainian president volodymyr zelenskyy is a sign that the issue of ukraine and its place among europe is very much at the center of these talks. there are other issues such as migration, but the ongoing war in ukraine is one of the topics that is being discussed. also in connection with the enlargement of the european union, a subject that has been discussed quite a bit alongside with allowing moldova and georgia in an expanded version of the eu. there are a number of risks, including security issues. leaders have expected to continue their support for ukraine and the war against

russia, there was also perhaps a lesser enthusiasm for allowing ukraine into the european union. while this is been spearheaded by rents in germany and mention -- by france and germany and ursula von der leyen who has said that ukraine's place was in the union, but there are a number of formalities that are expected to take place before it can happen. even though there are reports of formal talks already occurring as soon as december, there is less enthusiasm from other member states as to what this would entail and the accountability that we need to happen. there is the question of issues such as agriculture. ukraine is a major agricultural producer, that might come to clash with other countries and their own worries about how that would conflict with their own agricultural industries.

let's not forget that negotiating the common agricultural policy in the european union was a complex issue. there really member states that will be reluctant to open that up again. ♪ mohammed: let's bring in our guests. in berlin is olena prokopenko, the cochair for the trans-atlantic taskforce on ukraine and former ukrainian finance ministry. and pieter cleppe, and daniella irerra. a warm welcome to you all and thank you for joining us today. if a decision is made to open negotiations for ukraine to join the eu how politically fraught

will that process be? daniella: the process could be very relevant for political implications. there is the procedural consideration to be made because it is not so easy for a country to be part of the european union. there are a bunch of formal procedures to take into account. at the same time, there are political considerations because it is all is try to expand its borders for strengthening security and building peaceful neighbors. it would be a complicated process which would require a big consensus from all member states and this is the most problematic thing. mohammed: ukraine got eu

candidate status in 2022, that is a process that has taken longer for other countries. ukraine jumped the line. i want to ask you if that is fair, and a from your vantage point, could we see a shorter timeline for membership? olena: ukraine's eu exception -- eu process is a complex undertaking. ukraine received a fast-track eu candidacy status and it was also seen by many as a goal that would take years to achieve. yet ukraine received -- ukraine received the status after it submitted its formal application. although eu membership is an

ambitious undertaking, ukraine has been paying the highest price for the european values for freedom and democracy. it has been proving again and again since 2014 that it is ready to fight and die for these values. speaking about the merit-based approach and about fairness, it is fair because ukraine has been making significant progress on the reform track. it has been complying with seven conditions of the european commission that have been put forward. moreover last month ukraine past another package of legislation to bring it closer to the you. and it needs to fast-track the procedure. but it is the political will that needs to be there.

and the obstacles to ukraine's membership in the eu are largely political and the countries behind them, hungary and slovakia, no longer comply with european values and do not belong with european process. it is up to our democratic allies to put pressure on these member states and have them seize -- cease blocking ukraine. mohammed: i want to ask you more about the package of legislation. even if formal negotiations were to begin later this year, this is not a short process. you heard her talk about the political obstacles that lay ahead when it comes to joining the eu, how difficult could this be, and do you think it could become a reality? pieter: at this point it is a

very unrealistic -- only today we have the former commission president coming out and saying that ukraine is very corrupt according to him. this is something that has been confirmed by international rankings. but he also said that we should not give our friends, and he considers u.k. to be a friend, false hope. behind the scenes diplomats say that the west is trying to square the circle. they want to give ukraine hope, they want to send material positive signals but at the same time the reform process in ukraine will take a lot of time. mohammed: would this potential membership of ukraine really have been given this much

consideration were it not for the russian invasion of ukraine? >> it can be a political reality but at the same time it is extremely difficult because as people were saying, there is a lot of political consideration to be made. the consideration of relations with other countries and the balances under which the global order is based are playing a role. for sure the consideration of this can be done, and formal procedures can be started, they may start in the future, but at the same time, this is not just an automatic process. because i see many difficulties

along the line. mohammed: you are talking before about a package of laws that had been passed into ukraine to meet the criteria to join the eu. there is a lot of concerned by other member states if the criteria to join the eu has actually been met, what else needs to be done. one big concerns is battling corruption. what has been passed that you are referring to and how can ukraine assure eu member states that they are ready to meet the criteria? olena: i disagree with the statement that ukraine is so corrupt that it cannot be a member of the eu, ukraine has been making significant progress on this path. there are reasons to believe that the reports on the path of

complying will be positive which means that the progress we have been making is consistent with our commitments and consistent with the requirements that ukraine has committed to comply with. we also believe that ukraine is currently much more transparent than many european member states . the package of the legislation that was passed in the ukrainian parliament brings ukraine closer to the eu by closing some of the loopholes. it also opens a declaration of officials of ukraine public, this is due to the civil societies pressure and the work of the civil society with the ukrainian government.

the political party reporting is now public and there is a lot of progress on the anti-oligarchization french. i can say with confidence that the oligarchs that have been influencing ukraine's policymaking and economic relations until recently have been removed from these processes. this is the progress that we are proud of. mohammed: from the kind of talk we have been hearing from brussels, it makes it sound like ukraine's membership is a done deal. i want to ask you why that is and what are eu member leaders discussing? pieter: if you listen to the chairman of the european council of member states, he mentioned 2030 fourth ukraine to enter. this is merely expressing hope,

there is no consensus about the dates. behind the scenes, countries are split. they also have to reckon with elections -- projections, the western balkans, currently at war with russia. those are realities. it is good to see in the news that people have stepped down over corruption scandals in ukraine. typically that means that something is done about it. let's be positive. maybe the war brings only negative things but perhaps in this case it may send an electroshock through the ukrainian system. and maybe support the people who want genuine perform. it is important to remain optimistic. there is great opportunities for

ukraine. but behind the scenes, diplomats are working out on giving ukraine some kind of comfort. i don't think we can expect any hard commitments or promises. it is likely that the european commission will be the most friendly to ukraine in this respect. just like it is finally towards the western balkans, it will be the member states that will need to do the dirty work and say despite everything, you are not ready yet. mohammed: since a full e.u. membership is not an easy process, are there potentially any other options that have been discussed by eu members? something that could maybe lead to a gradual integration of ukraine into the eu. >> if we are referring to

something similar to the world map that the western balkans have living -- the process, it could be a potential model. it is also true that ukraine is being included in european policy in the past which has produced less outcomes that were expected. the sense was to gradually build stronger relationships with those countries, and the sense is among these neighbors, only some countries were interested in getting closer to the eu. and ukraine is one of them. our roadmap can obviously be considered. it is one of the political or

diplomatic solutions that are considered because it is gradual, it takes more time and in the meantime many issues can be managed. but i don't think ukraine is interested in this kind of roadmap. because it is necessary to be fast, from the point of ukraine. if this kind of solution would be offered i am not sure it would be welcomed by ukrainian president. probably it is one of the possible solutions, better than the long starting process, which will take more and more time. it is the sort of diplomatic solution which doesn't solve everything, it can just manage things in the short-term. mohammed: let me ask you about

what daniela was saying, do you think that ukraine would accept another type of roadmap, a more gradual easing in? there have been ukrainian officials who have said they would not accept second tier membership, they want to be full members of the eu. olena: i believe ukraine will not accept this option. we have no time to waste, eu membership is necessary as soon as possible for many reasons. it would speed up and enhance ukraine's postwar recovery, it would assist the country in dealing with the aftermath of russian genocide and mass destruction of the country. e.u. membership would bring ukraine closer to the

cutting-edge technologies that would make recovery more cost-effective and speedy. it would give us access to investments that would enhance the country's prospects for recovery. moreover, in the conditions when the u.s. government is in crisis, when the support for ukraine from the u.s. is largely threatened, and we have no clarity as to what will happen to u.s. policy in terms of supporting ukraine, it is very critical to have the european countries take the lead in this process. we need to ukraine to be as close to the european union -- european allies as possible. but i want to emphasize that ukraine brings so much to the table, its value is much greater

then any complexity. while europe is struggling, ukraine demonstrates 92% of support for the country's membership. it is much higher than in many other european member states. ukraine rings -- brings competitive business, the experience of building strong democratic infrastructure during the war. all of this experience can and should be utilized by other eu member states. mohammed: you heard her talking about the advantages that ukraine brings to the eu as a potential member. i want to ask you what leverage does ukraine have when it comes to this process with the eu and maintaining membership --

attaining number ship? daniella: if we analyze things from a political science perspective, in terms of costs and benefits, obviously ukraine is bringing a lot of things, a lot of benefits to the table. it is a relevant country from strategic and security point of view. it will expand the border of the european union. and from the agricultural point of view and other resources, ukraine is also bringing many benefits. but making the consideration of costs and benefits, costs should be considered. from what i see and perceive, looking at member states'

performance in europe, these benefits are perceived but the sense of cost is too high for many countries. personally speaking, i would be optimistic and say that ukraine is closer to the eu then we can expect. but what we see is the heavy burden of the political willingness of states to do something that can be very challenging. mohammed: you heard her talk about the costs, if ukraine were to join the eu, this would come as a massive cost, how much of a financial burden with abby?

pieter: -- we ran some simulations. the noteworthy thing is that a lot of european member states would turn from net receivers to net contributors to the european union budget. you can imagine that is not exactly going to play them an argument in favor of ukraine. ukraine is a very big country so it will have political weight in the context of the eu decision-making. at least the first thing can be solved relatively easily. at the moment the massive transfers we seek within the eu are not working well. the agricultural transfers, there is a lot of corruption that ends up in the hands of organized crime, of oligarchs,

the economic studies are negative about its effect. so maybe if ukraine would enter this would be an opportunity to get rid of most of these transfers and to have the eu focus on its core business, which is the single market. this is a win-win for ukraine and the current member statesm because -- states because it would increase loss. mohammed: i want to ask about the issue of agriculture, if you bring in a huge agricultural powerhouse like ukraine, how severe would the consequences be for farmers and other member states be? with a have to accept lower payments? -- would they have to accept lower payments?

pieter: if you let me decide, let's scrap all of these payments. farmers are capable of operating in a dynamic market without subsidies. and if you no longer give farmers all that money you have to give them tax relief, regulatory relief, and this is a good idea because at the moment we have heard complaints from the agricultural sector in your -- sector in europe that ukraine already had access to those markets. now these regulations are burdensome for farming companies so perhaps if ukraine entered this would serve as an opportunity to deregulate the farming sector which would be win-win for both ukrainian farmers and their counterparts

in the current eu 27. mohammed: i want to ask you how radical eu -- how critical e.u. membership is for ukraine? you have heard about concerns from other member states, how much concern is they are in ukraine that all of those -- that all of that could hamper this proceeding? >> i will like, -- like to come back to the costs question. nearly 350 billion euros are currently frozen and stored in the west in terms of russian assets. our partners should find a way to channel these russian assets

into supporting ukraine. this will release significant resources that are necessary for ensuring ukraine's membership. and ukraine needs e.u. membership now. it will enhance the countries recovery, it will speed up the reform process, it will bring ukraine closer to the european market, to technologies and everything we need to build the country and not just recover but develop it into a strong democratic state. mohammed: we have run out of time. thank you so much to all of our guests, ol. thank you for watching. for further discussion, go to our facebook page. you can also join the conversation on x, our handle is

@ajinsidestory. goodbye for now. ♪