the hamas terror attack on israel is the largest mass murder of jews since the holocaust says israel's president, what he called his country's darkest hour has cast a long shadow worldwide. the assault on october 7th is prompting comparisons he called his country's darkest hour has cast a long to massacres perpetrated by the terrorist group. isis hamas fighters killed more than 1000 israelis including babies, children, old people they seized an unprecedented number of hostages. so far, at least 1000 indians have died during counter attacks by the israeli army which has blocked the gaza strip and mobilized a record 300,000 reservists. why were israel's wanted military and intelligence services caught off guard? what will the attack mean a record 300,000 reservists. why were israel's wanted military and

for an already precarious region? our topic today, hamas terror against israel. how will it change the middle east? and welcome to the point. it's a pleasure to introduce our guests, starting with guido steinberg who is a terrorism expert at the german institute for international and security affairs. swp it's also a pleasure to welcome daniel dylan burma. he is a senior news editor on the foreign affairs desk at the german daily. shani rozan is a colleague here at dw. she's a commentator and editor for us and has also worked for media in her home country israel and it's a pleasure to welcome joining us virtually, er waldman. he is an independent author and a musician who's

equally at home and in germany and in israel and waldman. he is an independent author and a musician who's he joins us via skype. and, er, if i may waldman. he is an independent author and a musician who's i'd like to start with you. you are in israel waldman. he is an independent author and a musician who's at the moment, tell us how people are reacting to this worst attack in 50 years, israel had been riven by divisions in recent months. is that now has that receded? well, the people are more preoccupied with overcoming the everyday challenges. we have to help those who have been evacuated from gaza, those who are being evacuated from the northern borders. i would say the larger questions like the question of social unity about politics. these are questions that we have to wait until the war is over. thank question of social unity about politics. these are questions that you and shani, one of the striking things about the images that we've been seeing images of terrified young concert goers of blood smeared homes and villages very close to the border is the fact that people seem to have felt so safe there, so close to gaza. it seems

that that very high tech, very expensive wall was viewed as an impenetrable barrier, correct. that was one of israel's pillars of defense when it was looking into that region the assumption was first that there will be head notice in the sense of intelligence and that this barrier, which the assumption was first that there will be head notice was, as you said, very expensive and very theologically advanced will secure the border. and the failure of these two is still something that so many israelis are grappling with will secure the border. and the failure of these two still and it's going to stay there for a long time. we're going to figure this out and we will come back to that question shortly. but let me ask you about the comparisons that we're hearing more and more now between hamas and the incredible suffering that it wreaked you about the comparisons that we're hearing more and more in its attack. and isis are those comparisons justified? and what do they tell us? well, both organizations come from totally different ideological backgrounds. and until recently, i would always

have argued that hamas is a lot more pragmatic in the muslim brotherhood tradition than isis was. but if we take a look at the violence that has been perpetrated over there, uh it uh primarily reminds me uh of of the yazidi genocide in iraq and this quest for an annihilation, not only of israelis, but of jews is i think something new and that's quite comparable to isis so i think when dealing with the organization, we should perhaps not think as much of hamas of former times but rather of fighting an organization that is a lot closer to isis than we previously thought. daniel. what will have been the driver for hamas to perpetrate this attack now at this moment in time, what do we know about hamas aims here? well, there is some speculation over

that. one of the most plausible explanations is that the sponsors of hamas were interested in stopping the rapprochement between israel and saudi arabia, which would have been really a serious blow to iranian strategy in the region. but i think we can't take this completely for granted. at least the united states say they have no indication that iran directly ordered this attack. but we can be sure it couldn't have happened without iranian approval. and as for hamas they always have an interest in dealing fatal blows to israel, melinda just can quickly add to that. we know this was in the making for many months over a israel, melinda just can quickly add to that. we know year already. and the saudi american ties that have been exposed, this just happened recently. so there's something deeper there connecting more to what guido was saying about where hamas is heading ideologically, what we're seeing as the hatred running

deep and how it channels the actions of this organization and all of this is taking place in a region that was already a tinder box. what potential reverberations worry you the most. well, honestly speaking, as i'm talking to you from the northern part of israel next to haifa as i was driving around my hometown here in northern israel, seeing all the tanks, seeing all the military, we are looking towards north to the lebanese border. we ask ourselves, how will the hezbollah react? how will iran react it is? i must admit as an israeli again living now in northern israel. very reassuring to see the strong us american response sending a carrier here to the region to send a message. don't, as president biden said, don't back off and us foreign minister also traveling to the to send a message. don't, as president biden said, don't region as well. let's take a closer look at the

hamas attack and its potential reverberations in the region. hamas region as well. let's take a closer look at the an islamist terrorist 1000 rockets in israel on october 7th alone, it broke through the barrier around the gaza strip using explosives and bulldozers. according to israeli reports, some 1500 militants breached the israeli military blockade of gaza into israeli territory and killed more than 1200 people on the street and in their homes, including young people attending a music festival. about 150 people including women and children have been taken hostage. the iranian head of state ayatollah khamenei praised the attack while rejecting accusations that it had been orchestrated by the mullah regime. but some analysts say that a large scale attack of this nature would have not been possible without support. iran has repeatedly threatened to destroy its perceived arch enemy israel for years. the regime has aided

the militant islamist group, hamas providing money, weapons and training iran has also threatened israel with the help of hezbollah its ally militia in lebanon. widely considered a terrorist organization hezbollah immediately expressed solidarity with hamas by firing rockets at the israeli border. can israel defeat hamas by military means i'd like to put that question to you. but coupled with some of the language that israeli leaders are using they're talking about eliminating hamas when they describe their intentions gaza is a dense urban area. hamas fighters are surrounded by civilians. so what does a campaign of elimination look like? well, we don't know exactly what, what the israeli war plan will be, but according to what leaders say we will have to expect a ground offensive through the

whole gaza strip. and i think that the israeli military is capable of destroying the structures of hamas in the whole gaza strip. and i think that the israeli military gaza strip, many hamas fighters will die. perhaps most of them, many israeli soldiers will die and many civilians will gaza strip, many hamas fighters will die. perhaps most of die no matter how careful the israeli military proceeds. i don't think there is, there is any alternative if, if the government, if the israeli government really wants, wants to go through all the, all the gazan cities, daniel, the eu's foreign policy chief and a number of other leaders as well have warned that israel as it embarks on a military campaign must respect international law, avoid harming civilians is that wishful thinking, it will be hard to do that. but if you take international law, quite literally, international

law does recognize the fact that civilian casualties happen in wars. international law says that warring parties need to take every measure they can in order to protect civilians. but wars. international law says that warring parties need to take what is sure is that we will see a lot of civilian casualties. and we will also see media and policy campaigning from the hamas side and also in many arab states that will accuse israel of needlessly slaughtering palestinians this will be part of the political fight around this conflict. you recently wrote that making peace with hamas is impossible out of the question. so i know it's early days. but what does that mean? how does this end well, i think making peace with hamas is at least close to impossible because of its fundament, fundamentalist religious ideology well, i think making peace with hamas is at least

and also because it's not up to hamas alone to make peace. it is also an instrument of iranian foreign policy. i think if we want to settle the conflict around hamas for good, then it would need a grand settlement in the middle east that would somehow at least limit the confrontation with iran from israel, but also for many arab states. this is part of the context, at least for iran and we'll come back to that point but shani, let me ask you about the hostage situation hamas has some 150 israeli hostages, including old and young but shani, let me ask you about the hostage situation people, children, mothers. it has threatened to murder them if israel attacks in the gaza strip indiscriminately without warning. do you think that will deter the israeli authorities? well, officially they say it won't all the statements we've been hearing from israeli officials is that they're going to fight hamas

as if there are no hostages. only maybe in specific cases when they know of specific place where they're being held, they, it might deter them. it's a terrible position that it puts the israeli leadership in. you cannot, they don't control gaza. they don't know what's happening in the underground level of the tunnels in gaza and where these people are hidden. they're not even sure how many of them are there held by hamas and hamas is very purposely hiding that to use that i wouldn't put it past them to use the hostages in any way possible and israel is always, it's always a touchy subject in israel. and this time specifically, the greater the outcry from the public will be the harder it will be for the israeli leadership to take to ignore this topic. er in the past israel has participated in hostage exchanges. in fact, the current head of hamas in gaza was a member of a mass group that was swapped for one fact, the current head of hamas in gaza was a

israeli prisoner, namely gilad shalit. do you think any kind of negotiations would be going on? now, is there any way to try to effect such a swap at this time? well, there are attempted negotiations via qatar via egypt actually, as one reads via germany as well, we have time? well, there are attempted negotiations via qatar via egypt a different dimension. now, as you have rightly mentioned, gilad shalit was one person who was exchanged to around 1000 uh palestinian prisoners in israel. we have now around 150 israeli um uh prisoners or uh israeli victims sitting in uh palestinian prisoners in israel. we have now around 150 the um in the gaza strip, young babies, all the old people. and i must say it is a challenge talking as a journalist. it is a challenge to talk about these things, to talk about the human sufferings of these people. actually to also talk about the human suffering of the civil population in gaza in a, in a remote manner. maybe because i see in israel it is

rather rather difficult. and i ask myself in order to avoid from the destruction that awaits. now the gaza strip from an israeli offensive. i think that it is the role maybe of the arabic world. it is definitely the role of the palestinian diaspora to sound a clear voice that whatever hamas has done made. it actually is not a thing that has been done on behalf of the palestinian people. it is not a thing that has been done for the palestinian struggle for independence. and that might give a perspective that might give a way to relieve gaza and relieve israel from hamas and avoid civilian casualties on both sides as much as possible. are you hearing voices like that? for example, from members of fatah, which on both sides as much as possible. are you hearing is usually viewed as the moderate palestinian representative. there are two answers to this question, the arabic silence, especially the is usually viewed as the moderate palestinian representative. there are silence of the palestinian autonomy and the silence of the

palestinian diaspora is painful in our ears, especially those of us who have been struggling side alongside with the palestinians for palestinian statehood. but within israel, we see in a row of jewish arabic ns, we see voices, we hear voices of solidarity regarding these attacks. we see voices, we hear voices who say this has nothing to do with the palestinian struggle. this has nothing to do with islam but again, the silence of the palestinian diaspora, the silence of the palestinian authority is painful. we also need to keep in mind, melissa, there's muslim victims among the israelis and still being bombarded. there are many muslim, arab israelis sharing destiny and faith with israelis, shoulder to shoulder. g are those palestinian civilians in gaza. israel has called on them to leave undoubtedly as it's considering a ground offensive

but where are they supposed to go? egypt for one has refused to set up safe corridors for refugees to leave the gaza strip? well, there is an area in the gaza strip where they could possibly go in the southeast. and i think that that the israeli military would be ready to respect the safety of any persons in the area. but quite in general, there simply won't be enough space for gazan gazans to leave if egypt does not let them into the coununty and it seems as if egypt will not do that again. if israel attacks no matter whether there are humanitarian corridors inside or outside of gaza, many civilians will die. daniel, can you say a word about again, how you see the further progression of gaza, many civilians will die. daniel, can you say in gaza, let's say israel does conduct this campaign to

eliminate hamas. what does it have to do after that reoccupy gaza? it has been profoundly reluctant to do so it left more than 20 years ago and has attempted to contain rather than to occupy will that change? well i think it might change. and actually when you talk to members of the israeli military and to some politicians behind closed doors, they will tell you that maybe it was really a mistake to move out of gaza in behind closed doors, they will tell you that maybe it 2005. and that it has been evident that you can't control this place from the outside, that you can't prevent it from becoming a time bomb that explodes in regular intervals. so i think this is definitely not out of the question, but i think we also have to keep in mind that there are also problems brewing in the west bank. and this could be another problem that israel has to deal with either politically or security wise, maybe west bank. and this could be another problem that israel

even within the course of this conflict. let me ask i'm going to switch focus a bit and come back to how this could have happened. and shani, if i look at the headlines in israel, i see headlines like netanyahu's recklessness has brought war upon israel. that's a quote from hartz, the left leaning israeli newspaper despite the mood of national unity or at least solidarity would you say from hartz, the left leaning israeli newspaper despite the mood that this is provoking criticism and is the debacle as much a political one as a military one? well, everybody that this is provoking criticism and is the debacle as feels something is off right left, strong supporters of netanyahu everybody understand this is an unprecedented failure. this is an unprecedented shock and trauma. there are attempts mostly from above from politicians to put politics aside. but the rage is unprecedented shock and trauma. there are attempts mostly from above such thahat these voices cannt be tamed for too long

there is no doubt netanyahu has been the prime minister for over, i mean, for 16 years, almost other than a short interval. last year, he has appointed many of the heads of the security and defense apparatus. he has been campaigning to be mr defense. this is claimed for the heads of the security and defense apparatus. he has fame and failing in this point. it's going to be something going to be very hard for him to dodge so i think also if we want to stay away something going to be very hard for him to dodge from cynical look into politics, this is the role of something going to be very hard for him to dodge leadership taking responsibility, the israeli people, many of them feel they have been left without anyone taking responsibility to fend for themselves during that attack. and in the days that they have been left without anyone taking responsibility to fend they are still following with a great need that is there and very little response from the government. so it has to go hand in hand. we have to see together guido us leaders are saying that egypt actually warned israel about three days before the attack that something like this might be coming and it seems that hamas in

part through disinformation, managed to lull the israeli security services into a false sense of security. so how was that possible? and what does it tell us about a vaunted military and intelligence power? look, i'm not that sure that possible? and what does it tell us about a vaunted the intelligence failure is as big as it is being depicted right now, simply because hamas is a very professional very secretive, highly ideological organization, it is capable of hiding some things, especially because the israelis were expecting a similar attack, not from the gaza strip, but from the north for months already. so i'm not that sure that you always have to expect that your intelligence services don't get prior information about operations. they are not perfect. it's a very, very hard job. they have been extremely successful for decades. but things like that happen and that is why

on such a border, you need the military, but the military wasn't there theoretically, it should be one division, let's say about 20 25,000 20,000 soldiers, they were not there military wasn't there theoretically, it should be one division, let's so that's the failure of the military leadership and of the political leadership. and i agree some months after after this war has ended, i believe netanyahu and some others will have to leave wolf. and n netanyahu has now gone this war has ended, i believe netanyahu and some others into a unity government with the centrist opposition leader benny gantz who has a great deal of military experience. but the extreme right wing members of netanyahu's coalition remain in the government as i understand it. so what if anything will change? i would allow him to rephrase your question a little bit. netanyahu was forced into a government of national unity. we had to wait for five days for

this government of national unity to be formed. we had to, we had to wait for 789 hours before netanyahu who is actually, he jumps in front of every camera before he talked to the israeli people explaining what is who is actually, he jumps in front of every camera going on. actually, the only act of political leadership that we have seen in israel in the past few days came from us, president joe biden, it did not come from the israeli leadership and to follow up on what guto steinberg just said the military was not there. where was it? the question is, where was it? i know these are questions that will be discussed after the war was it? the question is, where was it? i know is over. but we know that the israeli military and this reflects upon your question about the right wing right extremists in the israeli government has created many provocations in the west bank through the settler movement and the israeli army was forced to take care of those provocations. so we ask ourselves, where was the military? what is the role of the political, of the political leadership in israel in allowing this horrible attack to happen? and i'm sorry

to say, i hope that guto steinberg is right and that netanyahu will not survive this world is bloodiest day for the jewish people since 1945. but the israeli, the that netanyahu will not survive this world is bloodiest day israeli politics is since 10, 11 months. anything else but rational. so we will, we will have to wait and see. so i'd like to briefly, the failure is in is in the macro. we're not into the details of what happened to the intelligence. the failure is the short sightedness. the failure is the arrogance. the failure is the lack of prospect that netanyahu is not, you know, has given or not given to the region to the palestinian for many years. this is where the failure is. let me come back to another dimension that was covered briefly in our report that we saw earlier and that is me come back to another dimension that was covered briefly iran's ongoing support for hamas and for hezbollah daniel, you me come back to another dimension that was covered briefly have called hezbollah iran's sharpest swords. so two quick questions if i may, what do we know about iran's involvement

in the attack itself? whether there was explicit foreknowledge and intentionality? and secondly, what do we think about whether hezbollah will jump into the fray? well as for iran and its involvement, as i've said, it's inconceivable that this would have happened without iran knowing and approving it. there have been reports from lebanon that there was a meeting between iranian hamas and hezbollah leaders on monday before the attack this is not a confirmed report. so we should treat it with caution. but it is possible that iran was closely involved at least as an observer in that as for you wanted to. um as for hezbollah, hezbollah is mainly so strong because it has a huge arsenal of missiles. not all of them are really advanced missiles, although there are some guided precision missiles among them, but the

sheer number of missiles could cause a huge problem for israeli missile defense, which we know is probably the most advanced in the world. i don't think that hezbollah wants to enter the fight at the moment. there is a tit for tat at the north, but this could escalate and it is already escalating. our title asks whether this tit for tat at the north, but this could escalate will change the middle east. could we see this turn into a regional, even an international conflagration? it's a plausible scenario if hezbollah intervenes, if hezbollah sees itself forced into a confrontation with israel. that is, that is a scenario and that's the very reason why we have seen the movement of the american aircraft carrier towards the eastern mediterranean i hope that we will see a relatively short war in gaza, but i'm not that sure that, um, that

this will be, will be the reality in the coming weeks. i'm afraid we'll have to leave it there. thank you very much to all of you for being with