the us crisis. diplomacy is in full swing. the recently reignited middle east conflict is just one of the many crises and wars that the us is currently having to deal with. president biden has made a personal visit to israel and met prime minister netanyahu following the earlier deployment deal with. president biden has made a personal visit to of two us aircraft carriers to the mediterranean to deter deal with. president biden has made a personal visit to at the same time, the us government is also supplying weapons and financial support in the russian war of aggression against ukraine. a situation that many in the us have weapons and financial support in the russian war of aggression started to find overwhelming. meanwhile, china america's primary geopolitical rival is busy expanding its global influence at the silk road summit. is the us having too many balls to juggle

at once and could she and putin ultimately be the ones to reap the benefits to the point? we ask superpower on the strain. how many global conflicts can the us cope with? hello and welcome to, to the point i'm isha bhatia san here in berlin. let me quickly introduce my guest to you. we have nico lange, he is senior fellow at the munich security conference and former chief of staff of the german ministry of defense. next on the panel is joseph brah. he is a political analyst and the european director of the trilateral commission, a global platform for dialogue between america europe and asia. and we have sudha david w she is a senior fellow global platform for dialogue between america europe and asia. and and the regional director of the german marshall fund in

berlin. a very warm welcome to you all. thank you for joining so that there is the middle east crisis right now. then we also have ukraine and russia and for joining so that there is the middle east crisis then we also have china taiwan, which of all of these crisis is something that bothers us the most, which is the most dangerous one where they need to focus most at the moment. well, i think unfortunately all three are interconnected and there is an issue where the us has to pay attention to all three crises in the world, hopefully together with allies because without doing it together with partners, the us will probably at some point and world, hopefully together with allies because without doing it together is already feeling overstretched. i think there is an expectation that europe will do more for ukraine, especially as the us enters an election here. the middle east is focusing a lot of energy for the us administration right now and that's we've seen this playbook in the past. many us presidents get embroiled in middle east policy, but i

think at one point, president biden will have to pivot towards his re election. nico. the us has been steering think at one point, president biden will have to pivot away from ththe middle east fr some time and focusing more on china and pacific. but now the us feels the need to focus more on the middle east. would you say that they are back in the role of global sheriff? what we can clearly see is when the us started to retreat from certain areas of the world the situation got worse. one of the reasons is that the europeans were not capable of filling the gap themselves uh but now we see america has to be a decisive factor in many crises that we have european unity when it comes to supporting ukraine against russian aggression is an achievement of the biden administration. it's not an achievement of the europeans themselves, but i agree with sudha, i mean, if the us has to dedicate so many resources to the conflicts we are talking about, i think the

mean, if the us has to dedicate so many resources europeans have to step up, especially when it comes to supporting ukraine. and we are not observers in this germany's interests are in europe, they are in the middle east they are in asia. so germany cannot expect the us interests are in europe, they are in the middle east helping to fulfill germany's interests. germany has to get involved itself is if i could just clarify before you go to josef, the reason that all three of these countries are interconnected is because they're all on the front lines of democracies and very dangerous areas and it's in the united states interest as well as partners to defend democratic of democracies and very dangerous areas and it's in the values and also to try to hold an already stressed international rules based international order. joseph, would you say it was a strategic mistake to disengage from the middle east for so long? i think so. and we sent signals

of weakness that may have emboldened the one or the other dictator. i mean, when barack obama, we all love him, but he drew a red line in syria and it turned out to be a pink line. you know that's not how deterrence works. he said, if you use chemical weapons, we will answer no answer from washington. the withdrawal from afghanistan didn't look heroic to other autocrats. so chemical weapons, we will answer no answer from washington. the they may not be forgiven, but they may have calculated america's weak has problems to defend its own democracy. we may have to talk about trump and the front line of defending democracy. i think thahat's in america because we all depend on america. so the russians, the chinese and all the others cannot do to us what america is doing to itself right now. so that's the biggest problem so add everything together. then we don't have the guardian of the rule based order, which used to be america

and we have to live in a world now that has been described as titan v. there, we woke up we woke up late, but hopefully we stay awake and not dream or sleep, walk into the next crisis, woke up late, but finally woken up. so at the moment the middle east seems to be the top priority for the us government. the us wants to ensure that the conflict does not escalate beyond gaza. it's a dangerous trip at a highly explosive time. the us president is visiting israel with a clear message. i want you to know at a highly explosive time. the us president is visiting you're not alone, you are not alone. as i emphasized earlier, we will continue to have israel's back as you work to defend your people. diplomacy is in full swing israel qatar, saudi i arabia egypt, secretary of state antony lincoln is touring the middle east to mediate and find solutions

under discussion is also the precarious situation of the palestinians trapped in the gaza strip in cairo. the us and egypt are discussing how to get aid from egypt into gaza without triggering a feared mass exodus into egypt itself at the same time, america is sending clear military signals it is moving fire jets and more warships to the region. above all the move is about deterrence, not only for hamas but also for other terrorist organizations supported by region. above all the move is about deterrence, not only iraq such as hezbollah in lebanon. most recently us peace efforts have focused primarily on reconciliation between saudi arabia and israel. but the war is now reshuffling the cards in the middle east. how can the us prevent a broader war flaring up in the region? so there are your thoughts on that? can the us really prevent flaring up

war in this region? can bibidn really contain this? i mean, right now, president biden, the us is still the leading force in the world, the leading power, the leading hegemon and president biden must do something to try to stop a configuration of the middle east, but he can hegemon and president biden must do something to try to only do it also with partners. chancellor schultz was also in egypt, annalena barabak was also in the middle east so it is in our interest to make sure that in egypt, annalena barabak was also in the middle east stability can be achieved. but first and foremost, israel does need to react to happened last week. and hamas is sort of discredit itself as a party to negotiate with hamas must be dismantled and israel has the right to exist. but certainly the hope is that eventually this two state solution could get back on track and a, you know, a warming of relations between saudi arabia and israel

can move forward, but first the hostages need to be released. and israel also has to make a statement and not let what happened last week go unanswered since you mentioned schultz, how were the two visits different schultz's and biden's when it comes to the outcomes? well, i mean first off because of the horrible tragedy with the hospital president, biden was not, didn't get the opportunity to meet with abbas and with other arab leaders, chancellor schultz managed to meet, have a meeting in egypt. so, but i still think that what the us does, what it signals comes first and the europeans usually fall in line or there may be nuances that would maybe help the situation but for the most part, i think europe and the us must try to remain in lockstep just as they

have done with ukraine. but can you continue the task us must try to remain in lockstep just as they of mediation if the arab leaders refuse to meet? yes i think so. um i mean, the situation about uh of mediation if the arab leaders refuse to meet? yes the, the tragedy when it comes to the hospital is more clear now. um and i think the combination of sending a carrier strike group and sending diplomats is the right one and it's only the us can provide this unfortunately, we do as europeans, we do not have those instruments at our disposal. that is our weakness. we have unfortunately, we do as europeans, we do not have those to work on um to distinction between the terror organization hamas and the arab population in gaza, i think is very important. unfortunately, we in germany are not good enough in making that distinction so far. what i've seen from very important. unfortunately, we in germany are not good enough the us is something i think that could be helpful and we have to say it's early, but so far the us is something i think that could be helpful it's working deterring hezbollah from joining the war against israel

i think is the most important immediate issue. many further developments would develop on that. and so far i think the us is setting the right tone there. there are about 2 million civilians in gaza and half of which are children is the us working on getting a humanitarian corridor for them doing that. but what is more important is that there are not more of that. so to keep both hezbollah out of the war and iran. so the clear signal deterrence is important as bad as it is right now. it could be a lot worse. so that's the most important. so this doesn't enlarge and us are the only credible voice who can do both assure security. they are the security guarantee even of israel. i mean, who would have thought that israel would be surprised like that? i mean, this has been amazing to many

of us. so it needs america. but america is only the other force who can also say don't overdo it don't make the same mistake as we did after 9 11. so military force is not the only solution. i mean, biden knows what americans are talking about it. so if we did that, we would have a problem especially in germany, but america is credible on that one. and i think if somebody manages it's the american president, if god and his health would allow for that, president bay did just that. i mean, he talked about israel's right to self defense but also differentiated between hamas and the palestinian people. and also mentioned that, you know, there has to self defense but also differentiated between hamas and the to be a humane way to let civilians cross. and so i do think that president biden and has also told israel don't let revenge consume you think about what your next steps are. and i do think that president biden still wants to somehow achchieve a two state solution

don't forget president biden and president obama didn't have the best relationship with netanyahu. and so i do think that president biden loves israel but is also aware of the different players that are at the table and he's best with his experience. he's the best person. we have to try to get some stability back into that. aid is still not treating that. as we said, they're working on it. i mean, i know that they're working on it as there is constant shuttle diplomacy going on right now and hopefully there will be a breakthrough. now, a lot of experts are saying that if a ground offensive, which is planned, if that happens, that's probably not a very good idea. is it too late or can it still be stopped? we don't know what the id f is really planning. i think they are doing well in not telling anybody, um the ground. so the ground offensive is an assumption um from a strictly military point of view

a ground offensive in a densely populated area is always a very, very difficult, uh long and dangerous endeavor because it develops into three dimensional uh warfare. um the problem is i think that hamas is using the civil population of the area uh to avoid being hit by id is i think that hamas is using the civil population f. and it's, i think a combination of special operations and ground operations that can maybe find a way around that. but let's be clear, this terror attack on israel um, there needs from a point of view of the security of israel, which is also reon d'etat of germany there needs to be an answer to that and i share the view of idf, that hamas as a terrorist organization needs to be destroyed, to provide security for israel share the view of idf, that hamas as a terrorist and the question how to have a distinction again to

separate the terrorists from hamas and the population, uh, uh that wants, uh, uh, just a normal civil life is something that we did not pay attention enough to. i think also for the last decades, because there would be possibilities to organize a better life in gaza. there would have been possibilities before, but hamas was taking over, the authorities are not playing the role they could have played maybe there is a way to transform this into a situation where a better life is possible in gaza after this. so the ground offensive is still an assumption. but if it were to happen, would the us still support israel financially? and technically, of course, there's no question about that, that's what biden made clear. and if in that case, if israel were to take gaza strip, then the us would still continue. sure. ok, clear words, talking about current sentiment in the us. how are people in america

looking at this? well, i think the sympathy lies very current sentiment in the us. how are people in america much with israel. but of course, you know, there is a split in the democratic party to some degree, you do see people also in college campuses. unfortunately, i think not necessarily having enough information and realizing the difference between hamas and the palestinian people. and so i do think that the government, no matter republican or democrat will always support israel, just like for germany, israel is an important valuable partner for the united states. but i do think that the united states also would like to see a two state solution no matter how hard it is, that goal should not be given up. we've made now obviously move backwards on that path. but hopefully, as nico long said, it may take a tragedy to try to get people to talk about this again, you wanted to pitch

in, not necessarily, but i mean, what policymakers want and do is one thing, i mean, it's clear in germany and the us but take arab states, you know, this do is one thing, i mean, it's clear in germany abrams accords, i think that's off the table right now that was a cynical calculation of hamas, not only at the expense of its own people to gain power within palestinia or territories though that's their cynical power game and to destroy that peace movement because they would be out of business. i mean, war fighters, terrorists are not in a good position when there will be peace and arab states who have neglected, you know, the two state solution i mean, they, they weren't really interested when you remember wikileaks and what all as i said, not did. and now they have to be aware of their population. not wikileaks and what all as i said, not did. and only in harvard, you have to be careful what you say because there are so many people who do not

differentiate. i mean, in these regions of the world, i mean, the leaders have to be careful not to be swept away by de folks. so let's not be too optimistic about peace solutions. let's just contain the situation and avoid a bigger war, contain the situation and think carefully about what our contribution from a german and european point of view should be. because yes, we are on the about what our contribution from a german and european point side of israel. that's very clear. yes, we have diplomatic possibilities. and the chancellor showed that showed that with, with going to cairo. but at the same time, it sounds paradox. but more support for ukraine from a military point of view could be exactly what would be needed while the focus of the us is necessarily very much on the middle east. and the us is the only one the focus of the us is necessarily very much on really with the tools to achieve a solution in the

middle east. so it's again a connection between, between the different conflicts. but i'm convinced we need to step up now to support ukraine to give biden more head space to work also on other issues and also to build a bridge towards the resources discussion in the u si think if the europeans would contribute more and be on eye level when it comes to help for ukraine also the whole argument for a budget. it will be easier eye level when it comes to help for ukraine also with india. i would like to come back to ukraine in a bit. the us government currently is not only facing challenges on the international front but is also encountering significant hurdles in the domestic politics, particularly from the republicans domestic politics. us president biden took office with the aim of reconciling a deeply divided society. after the polarizing trump years, he wanted to bring the political camps closer together so far without success. there is chaos in the house

of representatives. there are budget disputes and donald trump may well stand again as biden's republican opponent, the ukraine war the counter offensive is threatening to become a bloody trench war. new funding for weapons to ukraine is being blocked by the domestic political turmoil. power struggle with china here too. there is hardly any progress on delicate points of contention such as taiwan or advanced technology. despite so many crises, the us is asserting itself also with respect to the middle east and ukraine or the united states of america. for god's sake, the most powerful nation in the history of that in the war and the history of america. for god's sake, the most powerful nation in the the world, the history of the world. we can take care of both of these and still maintain our overall international defense. can the us manage multiple crises at once

so that can the us manage tools at the same time, it has domestic issues to deal with as well sure the united states can definitely manage the poly crisis world that we live in, but we can't do it alone. we need to do it with partners. and also world that we live in, but we can't do it president biden has to be careful, of course, about domestic sentiments because the american people are tired of these endless wars ever since. you know, after george w bush has been in office, america has shown more restraint. but unfortunately wars ever since. you know, after george w bush has or fortunately, it seems clear that the united states has to maintain a presence, has to show deterrence. otherwise, the rules of the jungle will, you know, be sort of the rules that we have to contend with. so unfortunately also the united states because everything actually is relatively going well, the economy is quite strong compared to other industrialized countries. but we seem to have been making our own goals because of our polarization and inability to work together

in dc. and we're seeing that playing out right now in the house of representatives, you were talking about ukraine in dc. and we're seeing that playing out right now now, ukraine is concerned that the middle east crisis would have an impact on them and they might not get the financial aid that they've been getting is the concern have an impact on them and they might not get justified. i think the concern is about the combination of the specific situation in the political system in the us and the non approval of budgets and the attention the us is now dedicating to the middle east and in ukraine, it's a very practical matter. it's not about political support, it is about military support. and if ammunition is running out, if certain types of weapons are running out then ukraine will have a weaker position. and russia at the same time, while we are talking is trying to gain the initiative to seize the initiative on the battlefield because they know that it is a problem for ukraine if the us support would not be there anymore, we because they know that it is a problem for ukraine can see we will see if the us will find a solution. there is talk about a 100 billion package

that might include help for israel and for ukraine and other elements as well, that could solve the situation. but the us has to elect a speaker first and the time is running and russia is attacking, that is the the us has to elect a speaker first and the situation as we speak. so i think also that points to a necessity that the europeans are stepping up also to give ukraine more confidence in the situation because it changes the calculations clearly already on the russian side. us to give ukraine more confidence in the situation because it the republicans are not able to agree on a speaker how does that affect america's reputation across the world? well it shows that we're paralyzed and we're dysfunctional in washington because there is a lot of bipartisan consensus when it comes to ukraine. if you look at the senate, republicans and democrats, both think that ukraine is in the national interest and, and the same goes with israel, i think in both chambers of the congress that support for israel is a must. but without having a speaker, there, no

laws can be passed, no money can be allocated towards these regions. and so we're facing a situation where the laws can be passed, no money can be allocated towards us is looking like a banana republic when it comes to governing. if biden were to resolve one of these conflicts, how would that help him in the upcoming elections i think he will try to kill slansky if he hasn't done so far. i think he has done so i think he will try to kill slansky if he far to come to terms with some solution because biden doesn't want to have the ukraine issue in the election it's not only unpopular with republicans. look at the front runners, nobody wants to really defend ukraine. you have mitch mcconnell, people worry about his health. you know, sometimes he's in the wrong movie. i mean, he reassured us in munich at the munich security conference but he couldn't make in the wrong movie. i mean, he reassured us in a deal with then speaker mccarthy because they did ukraine support out and now the last deal they made it

was at the expense of ukraine. so ukraine is not an issue. you run on to win an election in was at the expense of ukraine. so ukraine is not the us. so don't be surprised if biden run on foreign policy. that was the assumption. so let's put it differently. biden will try to get ukraine out of the electoral campaign because he has a son who is still in the bois and ukraine mess and democrats don't want to have that. so i'm afraid ukraine and here i agree with you will be our problem. america has different to have that. so i'm afraid ukraine and here i problems, especially in asia and china, we cannot discuss ukraine and even if we say they have to come to terms that does not change the situation, the reality is shaped by the reality on the battlefield. we have last 10 seconds so that you disagree. nobody runs on foreign policy issues in the us. when it comes to politics it's all kitchen table issues. we'll be looking at it policy issues in the us. when it comes to politics you see trump, he will be running on that and then this will make biden to change. that's, that's all the time we got, that's all the time we got

how many global conflicts can the us really cope with what do you think about it? if you're watching us