the tea party gets its way for now. let's play some "hardball." good evening. leading off tonight, if at first you don't succeed, add a balanced budget amendment. that's what speaker john boehner did after he was embarrassed last might when he didn't have enough votes to pass his debt ceiling bill. he threw in a balanced budget amendment which won over tea party republicans and guaranteed failure many the senate. in the past hour the house passed the debt ceiling bill on a strictly party line vote 218

to 2010. what happens next? the senate now takes the initiative with a weekend of rangeling and possible late night votes. we'll get the latest in just a moment. plus, how far will tea party republicans go to get what they want? is it really a conservative proposition to risk default? we've got two tea partiers here tonight. is anyone winning politically? president obama is trying to position himself as the adult in the room. if the economy tanks, doesn't his prospects tank with it. have you had enough yet? if people are fed up with democrats and republicans is there a thard way? a group called americans elect says yes, it may have the money and know how to get a ticket on the ballot in all 50 states. finally let me finish with a solution right in front of their nose. chuck, who holds the cards now? >> right now we're looking at a group of republican senators

that are ready to potentially deal with harry reid. that's what this could come down to. could come down in the next few hours. there are people publicly today that came out for cutting a deal john thune from south dakota, bob corker of tennessee, roy blunt of missouri, scott brown of massachusetts. i didn't even mention the main republicans who most people assume would be available for a potential crossover appeal. but i can tell you this right now, harry reid is dangling a lot of things to try to attract republicans. a few more cuts up front. a promise of a vote on a balanced budget amendment. not linking passage to the next round of cuts. making quote, the trigger stronger for the second round of deficit reduction. all this is about one thing that the white house cares about, getting rid of the second debt ceiling vote that would take place in six to nine months if john boehner and mitch mcconnell got the bill that they wanted. >> is the starting point for

what's about to transpire in the senate that which just passed the house, prior to the vote here on "hardball" you said it was almost of no consequence, they could adopt the number from the bill and treat it as a blank slate. >> that's exactly right. there were some similarities to this bill before boehner had to put the balanced budget amendment deal in there. that was some of the cuts up front. there there be some similarities that will be used and using for instance, promising a vote on the balanced budget amendment, harry reid will argue that is at least taking the spirit of what john boehner was trying to do in the house. but that's what they're going to do. they're going to take the boehner bill number. it's a shell. essentially do shift control a all the, delete it and paste in his version of the bill. the question is what bill does he put in by midnight tonight. we've got a legislative clock. if he bills the bill by midnight

tonight, that means the way this process works we probably have the vote to end the filibuster at 1:00 a.m. sunday morning. >> wow. >> we may see some kots. and then the actual vote on the legislation monday morning perhaps 7:00, 8:00 in the morning. then handed off to the house and give them a good 24 hours to figure out how they're going to pass it. it's going to take both democrats and republicans to get it to the president to sign before midnight, august 2nd. >> so far, it be only folks benefitting are papa john's and dominos. >> that's exactly right. >> speaker boehner said he'd stuck his neck out trying to strike a deal. listen to this and then react to it. >> i stuck my neck out a mile. and i put revenues on the table. in order to try to come to an agreement to avert us being where we are. but a lot of people in this town

can never say yes. a lot of people can never say yes. this house has acted. and it is time for the administration and time for our colleagues across the aisle put something on the table. tell us where you are. >> house speaker seemed to be speaking extemporaneously. especially that line about revenues. do you think that took some of his colleagues by surprisesome. >> it was. by putting it out there it's trying to headache sure when the post mortems are written his version of history is in there. the white house is thinking about post por themselves when this thing is said and done. what i found interesting was how he word things. he didn't say the bill that he passed here was the good compromise. he was very careful to draw lines, but to come out and talk about revenues, i think he wants to remind folks of both in his

own party how hard this was. and remind them of the loyalty that he had to them and vice versa. at the same time send a message to the white house, look, i went out there. you have no idea. you should now see how hard i told you this was going to be and you kept pushing me and you kept saying i have no idea. this really was as far as i could go. i think the president and speaker boehner wish they could have the last two weeks back. if they knew now what they knew then, they would have cut that deal. i really do. >> chuck, i wonder if that was not some over amateur to moderates and independents, i think the president has established the ground as he that was willing to compromise more so than the other side. earlier i asked simon hobbs to analyze the current economic situation as well as the potential implications if there's no agreement on the debt ceiling reached, it was very insightful. here's what he had to say.

>> in the their heart of hearts i don't think the markets believe there would be a default that everybody would be that stupid. the nervousness is palpable. we've lost the best part of 600 points over the last six sessions. that's more than 4.5%. there's a houj amount of activity behind the scenes. technical activity to deal with the process of a default, the 20 biggest wall street banks were with the treasury today. yesterday there was a huge conference call about how you work through what would be a technical default. if there's one thing that i can leaf with is this, as the hours tick by it becomes increasingly likely that the greatest nation in the world, the united states will be stripped of its aaa credit rating by the rating agencies. it means that the rest of the world will say you are more of a liability to lend to than france or germany or bring britain or canada. i believe when this episode is written this historical episode is written that they will lay

the blame of that squarely on the part of the republicans ap personally on john boehner in particular. let me explain why, for ten years on international markets we've known about the twin deficits, the public deficit, the government deficit and the trade deficit. we knew it needed to be sorted out. we were looking for a bipartisan approach on that and you've had various commissions in that regard. what the republicans decided to do usa was up to ante and have the fight now. they said we'll use the debt ceiling. they're saying to the rest of the world you know that $14 trillion that we've lent to you and our own people, from tuesday, we may not pay any interest on it and we may not repay the principal. they hold the rest of the world to ransom. what do they get in return for that? remember the yardstick from s&p is about $4 trillion of spending cuts or revenue increases to start bending the curve down. when obama was talking to boehner three weeks ago we were getting towards that.

now we don't have anywhere near $4 trillion move at all because boehner couldn't sell revenue increases to his own party. we're not bending the curve down. in that process, the blood -- the publics are now poisoned. the bipartisan approach is being lost and there are more hurdles being set up along the way such as the balanced budget amendment. aaa countries don't play by these rules. >> chuck todd this speaks to a big concern many the edifice behind you, if they cut the deal, if the aaa bond rating is reduced, it will be on the president's watch. >> right. that's been the issue for this white house. that's why number one, they really want to move this debt ceiling issue away from the next two years. yes, it's a political issue. it's also an economic issue. some really bad gdp numbers came on it. all of this uncertainty, we've all known that businesses right now in the last couple weeks they have gotten a little

nervous. people have held back they're not sure what's going on. they're not sure how this is going to end. i think -- look, i still have a lot of confidence that when all is said and done they're going to figure it out. all the leaders are on the same page. all of the leaders are on the same page. yes, they have an unpredictable -- an unpredictable group of lawmakers on their hands. so the one thing that i have as a political person, i would find surprising at the end to have day if they do agree to what this deal's going to look like, it is going to be a cup of trillion dollars, a downpayment on that it would be hard to imagine that they would simply look at our political system and downgrade us simply for politics if there is a path forward to some reductions. >> chuck todd, thanks so much for being with us. we appreciate your efforts. >> with us now is democratic congressman james clyburn of south carolina. congressman, this is one of those strange bedfellow scenarios.

it occurs to me, sir, you were on the same voting side as every republican member of your delegation, but obviously for different reasons. >> i'm sure there were different reasons, thank you so much for having me this evening. i find it interesting. i was attacked by the chair of the republican party in south carolina two days ago. when i talk about why i was not going to vote for this. now all five of the republicans from south carolina did not vote for it either. so i'm just interested in seeing next week what that gentleman is going to write about those five people who oppose this bill. >> you know, congressman, a lot gets said here about the perceived intransigence of those gop house members. data came out today suggesting that the president has reached a new low relative to gallup. i'm sure the numbers are the same for members. nobody's coming out of this thing looking good. surely you know that. >> absolutely. that's the case when it comes to

making legislation. it's sausage making. we all know that. people would not like to see it being done. but it's the way we do business in this country. i remember a former colleague from pennsylvania used to say democracy is a messy business. and it is. we try to get as many people involved in the process as we possibly can. we want people to have their say. and we may not always agree with each other. i don't get all upset about this. i'm sure when it's all said and done people will wait to see exactly how the markets react, how people react in the lending institutions around the country. and then i think they will determine whether or not this is a good thing. >> you know, the republicans had drawn a line in the sand relative to no new takesst taxes. were you taken by surprise when speaker boehner said, hey, i offered them revenues.

>> i was a little bit surprised at that, but i think it's one way of saying to us that he tried. and saying to the american public that he tried. because i think that nearly 80% of the american people were of the belief that we should have both cuts and revenues. so i think he wanted to say to those people who are in the majority in this country that did have both in his repertory. >> congressman, final question. my understanding, sir, is that which passed the house had a six-month time frame and then we have to do it all over again. that which senator reid was seeking would extend it beyond the 2012 election. when that gets resolved which way is it going to go? are we going to be revisiting the issue before americans vote for president? >> i don't think so. i've said before and i've said again, if a six-month extension

lands on the president's desk, he ought to veto it and next to it have an executive order invoking the 14th amendment. because i think that we will not do a single thing for people's confidence, for for the confidence of the markets if it's only six months. it might as well not be anything because it will not change the paradime at all. >> stability is what we need. >> thank you for having me. coming up, how far will the tea party take this fight? default, economic chaos? we're going to ask a couple of tea party republicans how far they plan to go. that's next. i have astigmatism. so my old contact lenses would sometimes move out of place and blur my vision. my eye doctor said there's great news

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yes, people can be critical of what we've done.

but where are the other ideas? at this point in time, the house is going to act, we're going to act again. but it is final for our colleagues across the aisle to tell us what they're for. tell us how we can end this crisis. >> welcome back to "hardball." that was speaker john boehner before the house voted to pass his debt ceiling bill. joining us now republican congressman from kansas who voted against the boehner bill. congressman, welcome, why did you vote against it? >> i don't think it does enough. we've got a $14.3 trillion deficit. it made progress in the right way. i appreciate the efforts of our leadership. the problem remains the senate hasn't put a plan out yet. hopefully they might get started this weekend. >> common sense would dictate if you didn't go for what the republican house passed, there's a small prospect you'll be satisfied with what comes back from the senate. >> assuming anything comes back.

the senate is yet to have a debate. they haven't produced a budget in 820 days. that's frustrating morely as a freshman. they have yet to have a debate. >> allow me to share with you the thinking of a conservative columnist who lashed out in this piece aimed squarely at the tea party today. he used a famous civil war quote from abraham lincoln. he said, lincoln is reputed tobs i hope to have god on my side, but i hope to have kentucky. i do know that conservatives don't have kentucky, they don't have the senate, they don't have the white house. under our constitutional system you cannot govern from one house alone. given this reality trying to turn a minority into a blocking authority is not just counterconstitutional in spirit, but self-destructive in practice. >> i think the constitution does mention the senate. if the senate doesn't produce a plan, this would be the first

time if they produce one this week in a plan to deal with our debt crisis, harry reid plans to debate the issue. is only plan that will avoid a downgood day is cap and balance. we thought it was the greatest body in the world. but harry reid refuses to allow a debate. >> i guess the intonation of the words is you do control the house, but we have divided government at this junture. the perception, i'm paraphrasing is at this point you're really being an obstructionist. >> the house is the only body what's produced a plan. the senate has no plan. they've not have debate. the president has no plan. he has a budget from january that was rejected 0-97 in the senate. we are doing our job. we're talking about cutting spending. we need to balance our budget. we need a balanced budget

amendment. i don't know what the senate position is is. they don't have one yet. >> all right. thank you for your time, sir. >> thank you. up next, texas governor rick perry, he flip-flops on same-section sex marriage. last week he said he allowed state rights to allow it, then he remembered that only applies to issues he likes.

welcome back to "hardball." time for the side show. rick perry shocked many of us for new york's right to pass a law allowing gay marriage. let's listen. >> that's new york and that's their business. and that's fine with me. that is their call. if you believe in the 10th amendment, stay out of their

business if you live in some other state or particularly if you're the federal government. >> no surprise that didn't sit well with perry supporters. so how about a clarification. >> it's a small group of activist judges and frankly, a small handful, if you will, of states in these little special interest groups that are intent on a redefinition, if you will, of marriage on the nation, for all of us. and not pass the federal marriage amendment would impinge on texas and other states. >> exactly. >> right, not to have marriage forced upon them by these activist judges and these special interest groups. >> sounds like more of a 180 to me. state rights are fundamentalal to the integrity of the united states unless of course, texas doesn't approve. up next, yesterday i spoke with simpson who co-chaired last year's white house deficit reduction committee on my radio

program. he was not pleased to say the least with his colleagues that the urgency of raising the debt ceiling is majorly overblown. listen to this. >> a final question, if i might for senator simpson, what's the response to those who are out there and saying michele bachmann included, we don't want to raise the debt ceiling and that frankly this is a whole chicken little thing that's been created. >> it will be a different definition of chicken, but the last word won't be little. >> subtle, no, it's pretty clear. next up, looks like president obama had dual reasons for speaking about fuel efficient vehicles in washington this morning. he's thinking ahead to his daughter getting behind the wheel. let's listen. >> as some of you may know it's only a matter of time until maliyah gets her learner's permit. so i'm hoping to see one of those models that gets a top speed of 15 miles per hour. >> there's some motivation for

all the dads out there to get behind this cause. that's "hardball" for now. thanks for being with us. chris matthews will be back on monday. up next "your business", with j.j. ramberg. my contacts are so annoying. they're itchy, dry and uncomfortable. i can't wait to take 'em out, throw 'em away and never see them again. [ male announcer ] know the feeling? get the contacts you've got to see to believe. acuvue® oasys brand contact lenses with hydraclear® plus technology, keeping your eyes exceptionally comfortable all day long. it feels like it disappeared on my eye. [ male announcer ] discover why it's the brand eye doctors trust most for comfort.

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