the tea party gets itsway -- for now. let's play some "hardball." good evening. i'm michael smerconish in for chris matthews. leading off tonight, if at first you don't succeed, add a balanced budget amendment. that's what speaker john boehner did after he was embarrassed last night when he didn't have enough to pass his debt ceiling bill. he guaranteed failure in the senate. in the past hour, a strictly party line vote, 218 to 210. no democrats voted yes. 22 republicans voted no.

what happens next? the senate takes the initiative way weekend of wrangling and possible late-night votes. we'll get the latest in a moment. plus how far will tea party republicans go to get what they want? is it really a conservative proposition to risk default? we have two tea partiers here tonight. and is anyone winning politically? president obama is trying it position himself as the adult in the room, but if the economy tanks, doesn't his prospect tank with it? have you had enough yet? if people are fed up with dem are republicans having a third way? a group called americans elect says yes and it may have the money and know-how to get a third ticket on the ballot in all 50 states. finally, we start with the house vote tonight an what happens next? chuck todd is white house chief correspondent and political collector. chuck, who holds the cards now? >> reporter: right now we're looking at a group of republican senators that are ready to

potentially deal with harry reid. that's what this could come down to. could come down in the next few hours, to be honest. but there are people publicly today that came out for cutting a deal, including john thune from south dakota, murkowski of alaska. roy blunt of missouri. i didn't mention the main republicans most assume would be available for potential crossover appeal. i can tell you this right now, harry reid is dangling a lot of things to try to attract republicans pap few more cuts up front. a promise of a vote on the balanced budget amendment, not linking passage to the next round of cuts. making the "trigger e" stronger for the second round reef duction. of course, all this is about one thing that the white house tears about. giding rid of the second debt ceiling vote that would take place in six to nine months if john boehner and mitch mcconnell got the bill they want. >> is the starting point that's

about to start in the senate that which just passed the house? you said to me prior on "hardball," it's of no consequence, adopt the number from the bill and treat as it a blank slate. >> true. exactly right. but there were similarities to the bill before boehner put the balanced budget deal in there, some of it's cuts up front. there will be some similarities that will be used and using, for instance, promising a vote on the balanced budget amendment. harry reid will argue, that is at least taking the spirit of what john boehner was trying to do in the house, but that's what they're going to do. they're going to take the boehner bill number. it's a shell. essentially do shift control a. get it all, delete it. and paste in his version of the bill. the question is what bill does he put in by midnight tonight? that's what we also got remember tonight. we have a legislative clock we have to worry about. if he files his bill by midnight

tonight, that means the aweigh this process works, we probably have the vote to end the filibuster at 1:00 a.m. sunday morning. saturday to sunday morning. number to one, so we may see some cots. then the actual vote on the legislation, monday morning. perhaps 7:00, 8:00 in the morning. hand it off to the house and give them a good 24 hours to figure out how are going to pass it. it will take both democrats and republicans to get to to the president to sign before midnight august 2nd. >> so far the only ones benefiting are papa john's and dominoes. i thought this was interesting. he said he stuck his neck out and tried to strike a deal. listen to this and then react to it. >> i've stuck my neck out a mile, and i've put revenues on the table. in order to try to come to an agreement to avert us being where we are. well, a lot of people in this town can never say, yes.

a lot of people can never say yes. this house has acted. and it is time for the administration and time to our colleagues across the aisle, put something on the table. tell us where you are. >> the house speaker seemed to be speaking extemporaneously. do you think this was by surprise. >> it's hard to know when the post-mortems are written, if his is in there. the white house is thinking about post-mortems when this whole thing is said and done. but what i found interesting about the speaker's comments, it's how he worded things. he didn't necessarily say the bill that they passed here was the bill, the good compromise, this or that. he was very careful to draw lines, but to come out and talk about revenues i think he wants to remind folks of both in his own party how hard this was.

and remind them of the loyalty that he had to them and vice versa, but at the same time, send a message to the white house, like, look. i went out there. you have no idea. you should now see how hard i told you this was going to be and you kept pushing me, and i kept saying you have no idea. this is as far as i could go. i think the president and speaker boehner wish they could have the last two weeks back. if they knew now, they would have cut the deal. i really think that. >> i wonder if that is not some overture to moderates and independents because i think one thing the president has done is establish the ground as he who was willing to compromise who so than the other size. i want to show i something. earlier i asks cnbc simon hobbs to look at the potential implications. if there's no agreement on the debt ceiling reach, it was very insightful. here kbhap he had to say. >> michael, in their hearts of hearts, the opening markets

believe there will be a default that everybody would be so stupid to threat go that far. the nervousness is absolutely palpable. the dow jones industrial we've lost the best part of 600 points over the last six sessions. more than 4.5%. a huge amount of activity behind the scenes. technical activity to deal with the process of a default, the 20 biggest wall street banks. with the treasury and yesterday a conference call how you work through a technical default. one thing i could leave you with, it is this. as the hours tick guy, it becomes increasingly likely the united states it be stripped of its aaa rating by the rating agencies. in other words, it means the rest of the world will say, you are more of a liability to lend money to than singapore or hong kong or germany or britain or indeed canada, and believe when this historical episode is written, michael, they will lay the blame squarely on the part

of the republicans and personally on john banenoehner particularly. we've known for ten years of the public, trade deficit. we looking at a bipartisan approach on that. you've had various commissions in that regard. what republicans decide to do, up the ante, accelerate things and have the fight now. what in effect did they do? use the debt ceiling. that means they're saying to the rest of the world, you know thathat $14 trillion? we may not pay the principle and hold the rest of the world ransom subpoena what did they get in return noor? remember here from s&p, $4 trillion of spending consults or revenue to bend the kurn down. when obama was talking to boehner a few weeks ago, we getting near that. now we don't have anywhere near a $4 trillion move at all.

because bavor couldn't sell the revenue increases to the party. last we're holding the world to ransom. one more thing, michael. in that process, the politics are now poisoned. the bipart sn approach lost and there are more hurdles along wait such as the balanced budget amendment. they don't sign by those rules, michael. >> and this speaking to an edifice behind you. eve you if they cut the deal, the aaa bond rating reduced it will be on the president's watch. >> reporter: right. that's the issue for this white house and why, number one they want to move the debt ceiling issue away from the next two years. yes, it's a political issue but also an economic issue. really bad gdp numbers came out on it, and all of this uncertainty, we've all known that businesses right now in the last couple of weeks have gotten a little nervous. people have held back, because they're not sure what's going

on. they're not sure how this is going to end. i think -- look, i still have a lot of confidence that, you know, when all is said and done, they're going to figure it out, because all the leaders are on the same page. all of the leaders are on the same page. yes, they have an unpredictable, an unpredictable group of lawmakers on their hands. the one thing i have as a political person, i would find surprising at the end of the day if they agree what the deal will look like, it is going to be a couple of trillion dollars, a down payment on that. it would be hard to imagine they would simply look at a political system and downgrade us simply for politics, if there is a -- a half forward to some reductions. >> chuck todd, thanks for being with us. appreciate your efforts. >> reporter: you got. with us now, democratic congressman james clyburn. occurs to me you were on the

same voting side as every republican member of your delegation. obviously for different reasons. >> thank you so much for having me this evening. i find it interesting. i was attacked by the jeer of the republican party in south carolina two days ago, when i talked about why i was not going to vote for this. now, all five of the republicans from south carolina did not vote for it either. i'm just interested in seeing next week what that gentleman is going to write about those five people who opposed this bill. >> congressman, a lot gets said here about the perceived intransigents those gop house members. data says the president reached a new low relative to gallup. i'm sure the democratic numbers of congress are the same. my point, sir, nobody's coming out of this thing looking good. surely you knee? >> absolutely. this case when it comes to making legislation is insulting

and people don't like to see it being done, but it's the way we do business in this country. i remember a former colleague from pennsylvania used to say, democracy is a messy business. an it is. we tried to as many people involved in the process and we possibly can. we want people to have their say. and we may not always agree with each other. so i won't get all upset about this. i'm sure that when it is all said and done people will wait to see exactly how the markets react. how people react and the lending institutions around the country and then, i think they will determine whether or not this is a good thing. >> you know, the republicans have drawn a line in the sand relative to no new taxes. were you taken by surprise when speaker boehner in his remarks prior to the vote said, extemporaneously, i offered them revenues.

>> i was a little bit surprised at that, but i think that's one way of saying to us that he tried, and saying to the american public that he tried. because i think that nearly 80% of the american people were of the belief that we should have both cuts and revenues. and so i think he wanted to say to those people, who are in the majority in this country, that he did have both in his repertoire. >> congressman, final question if i might. my understanding is that that which passed the house had a six-month time frame and then we have to do it all over again. that which senator reid was seeking would extend it beyond the 2012 election. when that gets resol solved, which way will it go? will we revisit this issue before the americans vote for president? >> i don't think so. i have said before and i will say again, if a six-month extension lands on the president's desk, he ought to

veto it and next to it, have an executive order invoking the 14th amendment, because i think we will not do a single thing for people's confidence, for the confidence of the markets, if it's only a six month. it might as well not be anything because it will not change the paradigm at all. stability. >> stability. stability is what we most seem to need. >> absolutely. thank you congressman. i appreciate your time. >> thanks for having me. >> coming up, how far will the tea party take the default? we will ask republicans how far they plan to go. that's next. you're watching "hardball" only on msnbc. just one phillips' colon health probiotic cap a day

helps defends against occasional constipation, diarrhea, gas and bloating. with three strains of good bacteria to help balance your colon. you had me at "probiotic." [ female announcer ] phillips' colon health. [ male announcer ] get ready for the left lane. the volkswagen autobahn for all event is back. right now, get a great deal on new volkswagen models, including the jetta, awarded a top safety pick by the iihs. that's the power of german engineering. hurry in and lease the jetta s for just $179 a month. ♪ visit vwdealer.com today. and form a layer called biofilm so strong it survives brushing. thankfully, there's listerine® antiseptic.

its triple-action formula penetrates biofilm, kills germs and protects your mouth for hours. fight biofilm with listerine®.

people can be critical of

what we've done, but where are the other ideas? at this point in time the house is going to act and we're going to act again. it is time for our colleagues across the aisle to tell us what they're for. tell us how we can end this crisis. >> welcome back to "hardball" nap was speaker john boehner just before the house voted to approve his new debt ceiling bill, but will the house vote to pass the compromised bill back from the senate? joining us now, republican from kansas who voted against the boehner bill. congressman welcome. why did you vote against it. >> well, i don't think it does enough. we've got a $14.3 trillion defenda deficity. i appreciate the efforts of leadership but the senate hasn't put out plan and hopefully will get started this weekend. >> common sense, if you didn't go for what the republican house passed, a small prospect you'll be satisfied of with what comes back from the senate? >> assuming anything comes back. the senate has yet to have a don't.

haven't produced a budget in 88 days. >> a conservative columnist who lashed out in his piece aimed squarely at the tea party using a famous civil war quote from abraham lincoln to make his point and he wrote, lincoln is reputed to have said, i to have god on my side, but i must have kentucky. i don't know whether conservatives have god on their side but i do know they don't have kentucky. they don't have the senate. they don't have the white house and under our constitutional system you cannot govern from one house alone. given this reality, trying to force blocking minority into a governing authority is self-destructive in practice. has are your thoughts? >> the constitution does say it and if the senate doesn't produce a plan, the first time if they actually produce one this weekend to deal with the

debt crisis. harry reid refuses to let senators debate the issue. we sent cut, cap and balance over there. the only plan ton avoid a credit downgrade. it's high time the senate have a debate. that's very constitutional. we thought the greatest deliberative body in the world. harry reid refuses. hopefully that will happen soon. >> and the words, you do control the house but we have divided government at this junk color a -- juncture. at this point you're being an obstructionist? >> the house is the only body that's actually produced a plan. we now sent two over to the senate. the senate has no plan. they've had no debate. the bred has no plan. he has no written plan. he has a budget from january that was rejected 0-97 in the senate. we are doing our job. we're talking about cutting spending. we need to balance our budget. we need a balanced budget amendment. i don't know what the senate position is. they don't have one because they

haven't debated one and we're days away from the deadline. >> thank you for your time. up next, rick perrily lyili. -- perry. flip-flops on same-sex marriage. you're watching "hardball" only on msnbc.

♪ going to the bank without going to the bank... that's a step forward. with chase quickdeposit on your smartphone, you just snap a picture, hit send and done. chase quickdeposit. take a step forward and chase what matters. ♪ we just keep on keepin' on ♪ ♪ keep on ...was it something big? ...or something small? ...something old? ...or something new? ...or maybe, just maybe... it's something you haven't seen yet. the 2nd generation of intel core processors.

stunning visuals, intelligent performance. this is visibly smart.

welcome back to "hardball." time now for the "sideshow." first up, governor rick perry shocked many of us last week voicing support for new york's right to pass a law allowing gay marriage. let's listen. >> that's new york, and that's their business, and that's fine with me. that is their call. if you believe in the tenth amendment, stay out of their business, if you live in some other state or particularly in

if you're the federal government. >> no surprise that didn't sit well with perry's supporters. so how about a clarification? >> it's a small group of activists judges, and frankly, a small handful, if you will, of states and these liberal special interest groups that are intent on a redefinition, if you will, of marriage on the nation, for all of us. to not pass the federal marriage amendment would impinge on texas, and other states, right, not to have marriage forced upon them by these activists judges and these special interest groups. >> sounds like more of a 180 to me. state rights of fundamental to the united states. unless, of course, texas doesn't approve. up next, i spoke with senator alan simpson who co-chaired last year the reduction on the radio program.

not pleased with the deal the former colleagues the urgency of raising the debt ceiling is majorly overblown. listen to this. >> final question if i might for senator simpson. what's the response to those out there saying michele bachmann included we don't want to raise the debt ceiling and that frankly this is a whole chicken little thing that's been created, it's really not going to be as bad as they say it's going to be? >> it will be a different desks of chicken but the last word won't be little. >> clear what he was getting up. next up, speaking about fuel-efficient vehicles in washington. thinking ahead to his daughter getting behind the wheel. let's listen. >> as some of you may know it's only a matter of time until malia gets her learner's permit. so i'm hoping to see one of those models that gets a top speed of 15 miles an hour. >> motivation for all dads out

there 20 get to get behind this. that's "hardball" for now. chris matthews will be back on monday. up next, "your business" with j.j. ramberg. into the future. into the future. there's a nurse who can access in an instant every patient's past. and because the whole hospital's working together, there's a family who can breathe easy, right now. somewhere in america, we've already answered some of the nation's toughest healthcare questions. and the over 60,000 people of siemens are ready to do it again. siemens. answers. is best absorbed in small continuous amounts. only one calcium supplement does that in one daily dose. new citracal slow release... continuously releases calcium plus d for the efficient absorption my body needs. citracal. that's me with the blow dryer and the flat iron until i see smoke.

so pantene said, "breakage and split ends? no problem." they gave me this pantene called breakage to strength. [ female announcer ] the keratin protection pro-v system helps prevent then repair split ends. zero fear of breakage, 100% more strength. no regrets, just health. i'm not giving up the heat. [ female announcer ] the breakage to strength system from pantene. uh-huh. jeff! honey, i can't walk any faster. [ female announcer ] oscar mayer deli fresh turkey comes in a clear pack... [ cellphone beeps ] [ jeff ] ooh. thanks hun! [ female announcer ] ...so the freshness you see is what you taste. ♪ it doesn't get better than this ♪