i'm alex witt. good morning to "msnbc sunday." let's get to what's happening right now out there the last-minute scramble to reach a deal on the debt seems to be getting results. the white house and gop are making progress. >> we're still working on the parameters of it. we're very close to being able to recommend -- i am, to my members, that this is something they ought to be able to support. >> well, lawmakers have just two days to raise the debt ceiling and avoid a catastrophic default that could send the economy spiraling downward. senior white house adviser david plouffe says the clock is ticking. >> in the coming hours, it's incouple bent on congressional leaders to compromise the last bit. >> lawmakers will cast a test bill at 1:00 p.m. eastern. that could change, as things

have mightily the last couple of days. let's go to luke russert. good sunday morning to you, luke. can you tell us what the tentative deal is that's on the table, at least by some reports? >> sure, let's emphasize this is presumed tentative, not concrete, the ink is not dry on the paper if you will. for starters, a debt ceiling increase of $2. trillion, initial spending cuts of $1 trillion, discretionary. a clean vote on a balanced budget amendment, and a commercial committee to find $1 trillion in cuts before thanksgiving and automatic cuts by committee are not adopted, they will be across the board, trying to target republican sacred cows and democrat sacred

cows. this is the first glimmer of hope over the past few weeks. that being said, already this looks like a plan that's tailor made to go through the senate. mitch mcconnell saying this morning, it has to get democratic votes in the senate. he believes when all is said and done, he believes this is something he can recommend to his republican members. i cover the house, been calling house sources and seeing from initial reports what do they think of it? and it's quite an interesting cross section of views. i spoke to one close to the house progressive caucus who said members would be sufficiently spooked by this. saying the president -- getting no revenue in return, no new taxes and would have cuts across the board. especially cuts that could target medicare. i spoke to sources close to tea party republicans who say they don't expect members to vote for this even though they voted for the boehner bill on friday. a g.o.p. leadershipid aide said

serious issues still existed. their members have to weigh in. we're proclaiming this as the deal and the white house is drumming up support for it, and mitch mcconnell is drumming up support and there is this wave of optimism, remember, this could very well pass the senate, we saw how difficult it was to get the republican bill out of house last week. it took speaker boehner three times, and this bill right now, as it's written is angering folks on the left and right. can john boehner or if he agrees to take this, and he's usually in one-on-one, connecting to mitch mcconnell, can they get a coalition of 216 votes in the house on tuesday? if this is the deal, that becomes the real question over the next two days, and that's a question we can't answer right now. it will be ai whole cross section of views, and if this is already angering the left and the right, you're looking at

between anywhere between 80 to 100 members who are saying no. the road to 216 really becomes a big story if this is the deal. >> luke russert, thank you for telling it like it is. >> take care. >> for more on where the debt debate stands, check out the white house with david plouffe. it will reair on "meet the press" on 2:00 p.m. right here. the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff admiral mike mullen told soldiers in kandahar if talks fail they still have to fight but might not get paid. >> plenty of you live paycheck to paycheck if paychecks stop, it can have a devastating impact pretty quickly. >> and then there at camp leather neck, mullen told marines, all services face cutbacks in size and possibly as

well in military benefits. as you heard from nbc's luke russert, the reaction is mixed on capitol hill to reports on the white house that the gop has reach aid deal. with signs of dissent on the left and right in the house of representatives. joining me now is eddie berniece from texas. good morning. where do you stand on things this morning? what are you hearing overall? >> all i'm hearing i'm hearing on msnbc. we have not communicated with each other. however, what i'm hearing, i am not impressed, because raising the debt ceiling has nothing to do with more and more cuts. we have heard over and over again that unless the economy gets better, the president is in peril. well, the economy is not going to get better with what's going on. it simply cannot when you continue to kill jobs. it's not going to get better. when you continue to make

children at risk for not only education, but just safe water, safe air and safe food. and putting senior citizens at risk, it's not going to get better. people cannot spend what they don't have. unless we're getting some spending going on. that puts demand on goods, which create jobs. get something done for small businesses. the economy won't get better. it is getting worse under these proposals, and i don't see any reason to support it at this point. i think we're at the point where the president must use the 14th amendment to exercise his right to declare an emergency and lift this debt ceiling this is a ploy that we're going through, and it's not going to solve anything. it's going to make things worse. >> now, am i taking it from you correctly that you are not going to vote for the proposal? >> i have not seen the proposal. i have not seen it. what i hear, i cannot.

based on what i'm hearing now. >> is that which you apose that's left out or not tended to or the possibility of the u.s. defaulting on its debt? >> none of these two are good. i do not agree that we should throw all of the working people under the bus, in order for them to get off the president's neck and allow the debt ceiling to be raised. it is not connected. we're talking about servicing the debt that's already been made. not anything that's being spent at this time not anything that's being spent under this president. it was spent some years ago, so why should we punish, the children, the old people, the small businesses and everyone else that could help through innovation and research, which is all being slaughtered? >> you mentioned the children, the small businesses, the elderly and the like.

if the united states defaults on its debt, though, as a result of too many no votes ultimately, won't every man, woman, and child be affected by that and paying more for things? >> indeed they will be affected. indeed. no question about it. but under what's being proposed, they will suffer anyway. and so you wonder, then, why are we tying all of this to the debt ceiling? it should not be. it has no connection whatsoever. we have never tied any other president's hands on any of this, even when you disagree with everything that he's doing. we've always been able to do our best. and has never been tied, string holding, all of the working people. >> it should not be clearly, it is. and with 48 hours plus, maybe 60 hours total to get this thing

done, do you have any hope that it will be done to your liking? >> well, nothing that is done will be totally to my liking. i understand that. i will compromise. my record shows that. there's a point where you have to make people accountable to the people of this nation. we cannot continue to put our feet and stomp the working people of this nation just to let the wealthy get off the hook. they don't even want this. i don't think it's worth going any deeper into the opportunities, into creating jobs, because we're not creating jobs. if anything, we're killing them. the economy does not get better, and so i'll have to look at what's being said, but it doesn't look good to me. >> representative eddie vernic mcconnell, thank you for joining us on this important day. >> thank you. >> ann marie buerkle from new

york, a view on the tentative debt deal. keep it here. we will have chuck todd "host of "the daily rundown" picking up coverage at noon eastern. government unrest. reports of gunfire and bloodshed. she's been missing for almost a week after disappearing without a trace. the fbi is issuing a reward. two american hikers go on trial in iran. word today their release could come soon. you're watching "msnbc sunday." e there was a 93% increase in cyber attacks. in financial transactions... on devices... in social interactions... and applications in the cloud. some companies are worried. some, not so much. thanks to a network that secures it all

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about the possible results of debt negotiations. between the white house and republican leaders in congress. white house senior adviser david plouffe says there is a general agreement that the general debt would be reduced in two stages much. the first would be a general $1 trillion cuts. >> the second is the entitlement reform and tax reform which the super committee is charged with. and its incumbent that people on committee would drive to yes, get out of their parties' comfort zone. the committee won't be charged with spending cuts only. they will look at entire deficit reduction problem and look at things like tax reform and revenue. >> joined by a congressional reporter from "the washington post" and a.b. stoddard for "the hill" newspaper. >> good morning. >> there has never been a committee like this before. what is your take on this part

of the compromise? >> the committee part is something that was included in both parties' proposals as we were heading into the final stage of debt limit negotiations, it's something that both sides and the white house will be able to agree to. what the committee essentially does, it punts the tougher issues, the key philosophical issues of the parties into the later part of this year and early next year. the first part of the debt ceiling process that looks at the white house and senate leaders looks for one trillion spending cuts to be enacted and then it would be kicked down the road. both parties say that's the last thing they want to do, this would exceed in diverting an immediate default, something that no one wants and when bigger discussions taking place down the line, the consequences of them not reaching a deal would not be as dire for the country as they would be at this

point. so in that respect it's something that everyone can agree on. politically what this means for the president, he gets to avoid the country on the verge of default right now into next year. and house democrats have not been happy about this. they feel essentially they are not really getting anything out of deal. they are just getting the debt ceiling raised. republicans are sort of on the fence about this. some are pleased to getting several trillion in cuts. but some of the tea party republicans, 40 or so we're looking at, they are probably not going to be suting this deal. it doesn't require the passage of a special amendment. >> and kicking the can means going to thanksgiving time, another $1. trillion in cuts. to you, a.b., why democrats would vote at all for this deal. it seems to take taxes off the table what do you mean of david blo plouffe saying the committee would look at tax reform and

revenues? >> democrats will want to see that revenues are still on the table. and the new super committee would be appointed it would be members of the senate, members of the house, six from each party, and i think you can bet the republicans will be put on that commission or committee that are not interested in raising revenue, and dem rats are going to be pushing revenue raising is part of the formula nah gets to us deficit reduction. that is a big discussion in the next couple of days about what is the trigger for failure to act by the commission and then how is the commission really made up? you know, alex, and so does felisha, that the town is littered with the bones of failed commissions. we had the biden committee working with members from each party and each chamber, trying to put something together. the gang of six. people try this all the time and it never works, so the chief of how you form a committee and how it gets to resolution, whether

it's a mixture, as they figure out a mixture of revenue and entitlement cuts in advance or how do you really thread that needle will be the crux of the negotiations over the coming hours. >> can i ask both of you to sort of gaining from what you're hearing, does the compromise that appears to be taking shape look more similar to john boehner's plan or harry reid's plan? if felisha. >> it looks a lot more similar to the reid plan in the sense that it would raise the debt ceiling through the end of 2012, which is something that the white house and democrats have been pushing for and the boehner plan would only allow for short term raising for six months or so. it wouldn't include the war savings that the reid plan had included and that was about $1 trillion or so. and republican has criticized that part of the reid plan, again, saying that the smoke and mirrors, typical washington and a nonstarter for them on the

house side. and it would also call for this trigger mechanism that would have consequences for -- if the committee is not able to reach an agreement down the line. those are the two main differences. >> we are out of time. a.b., the assessment, closer to reid or boehner? >> felicia is right. cuts are much closer to boehner, much more real cuts. the democrats will not like as as much as they were supporting the reid plan. the timing of letting this go into 2013 is a big win for the democrats. >> thank you so much. good to see you both. >> thank you. another big story we're following. renewed unrest in the middle east. activists inside syria say dozens have been killed as syria ramps up crockdown of activists in front of rama dad. tanks stormed hama before dawn today, killing 62 people in a barrage of shelling and gunfire. hama has seen some of the largest anti government

protests. the fate of the two jailed american hikers in iran will be announced within the week according to the hikers' lawyer and a syrian official. they were arrested along the iran/iraq border fortress passing and spying for the u.s. today's news dashes hopes they would be released immediately after the day's final hearing in their case. has a best-in-class driving range of over 500 miles per tank. so you can catch morning tee time in pebble beach and the afternoon meeting in los angeles all without running out of gas. just make sure you don't run out of gas. ♪ but when she got asthma, all i could do was worry ! specialists, lots of doctors, lots of advice...

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23 past the hour. a live look at the capitol. the senate will convene in 40 minutes or so. word trickles out that the are public i h republican leaders are close to a deal with the white house. more at the bottom hour. a new twist in the disappearance of an 11-year-old girl in new hampshire. the fbi is offering a $25,000 reward. no trace of celina cass since last seen monday night at her

home in stewartstown. they hope this leads to information about what happened to the young girl. >> this reward should not be read into that we're transitioning in this investigation. we want to put it out there because of the vigilance of the public, the recent successful cases of missing children that have been recovered as a result of that vigilance from the public. >> celina's family returned to their home after the police searched the property not far from the canadian border. no indication that someone took her. we get to the video which relates to ominous clouds of thick, black smoke over one tennessee town. a fierce fire at a bioenergy plant unleashed the suffocating plumes. one worker at that plant was hurt and several homes were evacuated. no word on the cause. the first trees have been

planted at the flight 93 memorial in shanksville, pennsylvania. those trees donated by the september 11th memorial in new york. the national park service says the 40 trees are the symbol of the ties between the memorials of the 9/11 attackers and serve as a physical reminder of the 40 lives lost aboard flight 93. we're return to our top story in a moment. the latest from the white house on what should be a near done deal on debt. some are concerned about the devil in the details. stay with us. you're watching a very busy "msnbc sunday." i'm on an aspirin regimen now because i never want to feel that helplessness again. [ male announcer ] be sure to talk to your doctor before you begin an aspirin regimen. talk to your doctor, and take care of what you have to take care of.

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♪ [ cat meows ] ♪ [ whistles ] ♪ [ cat meows ] ♪ [ ting! ] [ male announcer ] travelers can help you protect the things you care about and save money with multi-policy discounts. are you getting the coverage you need and the discounts you deserve? for an agent or quote, call 800-my-coverage or visit travelers.com. the white house is reportedly close to reaching a deal with republicans to avoid default in two short days. david plouffe, white house adviser, says there is still work to be done. >> we don't have a deal. general agreement we'll have debt reduction in two stages. first is something that the parties largely agree on, about

$1 trillion in deficit reduction. the second element is entitlement reform and tax reform, which is the super committee is charged with. >> joining me now, mike viqueira. your day is far from over. let me tell you. >> i love it, alex. how are you? >> i'm well, thanks. where do negotiations stand right now? i'm sure it's different than last hour. >> we don't know for sure. basically they have been on the edge of sealing the deal for the last few hours. we've learned deals of emerging agreements. mitch mcconnell says that a deal is very close. and david plouffe, about the same time, said no agreement yet. we have agreements of what is on the table in terms of a possible agreement. let's couch it that way. if we learned one thing over the course of last week, nothing is done until it's done it would raise the debt ceiling by $2.8 trillion, get us through the next election, that's a

condition president obama had all along. initial spending cuts of $1 trillion of discretionary spending would take place in the short term. there would be a clean vote in the senate on a balanced budget amendment, not agreement there, amendment. that is expected to go nowhere, but it's in there nonetheless to make some people happy. the super committee of members of congress that they are going to form is going to be meeting from now until thanksgiving. mandated to find $1.8 trillion in cuts, and you heard david plouffe say everything is on the table, including entitlement cuts, aka, social security, medicare, medicaid. as well as revenues, but republicans say new taxes are not part of this. automatic cuts across the board. defense and medicare, as well as other discretionary spending programs by the end of the year that would be automatically triggered if congress has not adopted the measures put forward

by the super committee. a trigger mechanism. a sticking point all along with thes innence that the debt ceiling be raised through the end of the year it appears that has been satisfied. we'll see how this goes over. apparently in the senate, there are bright prospects for this day. it's not out of the question that we would see the president at some point during the course of the day, once this is certain or even if it should break down, god forbid at the last minute. once it gets back to the house, alex, we can expect both ends of the political spectrum, left, right to be upset about what's going on here for different reasons, obviously. so that will be a very interesting vote. and we near the deadline of midnight tuesday night, alex. >> you make up a good point. i spoke with eddie vernice john of texas. she said i can't vote for this. a lot of people will echo the

sentiment. how long this k this play out? the clock is ticking for midnight tuesday night. >> one of the things people are asking me on twitter and elsewhere. how will bush tax cuts be extended? there was a deal to extend them another two years. they are not affected by this deal. they would expire as scheduled unless there is intervening sprit legislation and obviously that's not out of the question as we move on down the road. democrats will look at this and say, look, the president has already put entitlement programs on the table. that is something that we are very much against. not only that at the current time, we have the political advantage because the house of representatives has voted on the ryan plan you remember, dramatically reskukured medicare, proven to be policy anathema for democrats and a policy winner as well if this committee comes out with cuts to xwiltsment programs and forced to vote on that and pressure from the white house to go along

or the trigger comes down on them, that will put them in a very difficult position. they will have problem with that on the right and the right will have problems on it. they don't think it goes far enough. >> thank you for that. joining me now, msnbc political analyst and former dnc analyst karen finney and the host of roll call tv. how was your coffee? did you get it all sorted out there? >> good morning. >> i watched. >> i paid cash. >> very good. all of us being able to pay cash, especially the government. meanwhile, robert, we heard from white house adviser david plouffe who said on "meet the press" a deal would be this two-step approach with the committee to recommend more budget cuts. will all kinds of cuts be on the table for that committee? >> i think so. look, there is really three things that the committee needs

to look at. and they know this. defense, medicare, and social security. those are the three things that take up a lot of the revenues here in this country and if we don't rein those big three things in, the country will consider to spiral into bankruptcy. if you take a look at this commission, hopefully the committee will meet, and we all know, nobody wants to cut social security, nobody wants to cut medicare, but defense, again, this committee will have to sit down and make a couple of representations. probably in the context of the commission that made the same recommendations a couple of months ago. >> we have not heard from senator harry reid today. how is he involved in negotiations this morning if at all. is there a better chance of passing the senate if passed by mcconnell and the president? >> not at all. one of the masters of senate procedure is harry reid, the other one actually is mitch mcconnell.

that is part of why we saw last night this postponement from the 1:00 a.m. vote to the 1:00 p.m. vote. obviously, the public message is to give everybody a little more time, but from what i've been hearing, senator reid was not happy with what went on yesterday and a number of other senators not happy. and you're hearing it from the house progressive caucusful so clearly they are trying to make it clear that they are relevant and they there are certain things that are important to democrats. but -- one thing i would say. you say nobody would want to touch medicare or social security. that's not true. plenty in your party who have wanted to get their hands on medicare and social security for a long time and that is largely what democrats are very concerned about in terms of what that actually means for real people in the day to day when we start cutting these things. >> alex, very interesting the change of events. 48 hours ago, 72 hours ago, it was about speaker boehner being in the hot seat. now senator reid is in the hot

seat, and the players have changed. all of a sudden, mitch mcconnell, fairly quiet over the last week or so on the debt ceiling negotiation and the president and vice president are, again, reengaged if you will. an interesting change of eventsory the last 72 hours. >> listen, the two of you we'll let it be a wrap right there. we of the players standing by. let's get to it. a deal might be very close, the fact that a sticking point or a few of them remain, less than comforting. especially when sticking points are contentious ones. we were just discussing this with karen and robert. ann marie buekle of new york joins us from washington. thank you for joining us on this busy day. >> good morning, thank you for having me. >> how hopeful are you, if at all, that things are coming together to the satisfaction of both sides? >> i'm very hopeful. i think that both parties understand the right thing to do is to get this -- this debt

ceiling raised, but i think what we're adamant about, we can't raise taxes in this fragile economy and that we have to do it responsibly, and we do it responsibly by cutting spending. we have to stop spending. the debt ceiling really isn't the problem. the problem is our debt. and that's where the markets are looking at and they are fearful, unless we get a plan in place, unless we are clear we have to stop spending money we don't have, they will drop our credit rating. >> when it comes to the raising of revenue, and raising taxes, the two contentious areas are, of course, on businesses, big businesses that are making so much money in their surplus and people who make so much money, the millionaires, bill on airs, the like. do you have an argument that will be palatable to the other side? they could afford to have

raising of revenue and taxes? >> two points about that. first of all this is the united states of america. our system is one that rewards that entrepreneurial spirit. that rewards hard work. we don't punish that. we reward that by doing well and being successful. that's the underpin of the united states of america. but beyond that, we don't have a -- a taxing problem. we have a subpoenaing problem. and all of the talk about the corporate jets and the mantra from this administration, we've talked about and we've got it in our proposed budget that we would simplify the tax code, eliminate the loopholes, very important, but we do not have to raise taxes, we need to get our subpoenaing under control and have to create with our small businesses, because that's really the engine that drives our economy. we have to create for them an environment where they can do well. where we're not regulating and taxes them to death this

administration, last december in 2010, with -- along with the -- excuse me. democratic house, democratic senate and democratic administration, they all agreed to extend the tax rates. they knew in this economy the wrong thing to do would be to raise taxes. now it's become a republican issue. they made that choice last december that raising taxes in this environment, this fragile economy is not the right thing to do. >> there's a point well taken right there. with regard to if there is no agreement on what to cut, one prospect out there, just cutting across the board and one area that could be affected is defense spending. how do you think that would go over with fellow republicans when you think about as we've been interviewing jim miklaszewski out in the field, boots on the ground, saying are we going to get paid for fighting the fight? >> agree with you. that is a contentious issue. we have men and women in harm's

way. this administration, congress, we've made the decision to send men and women into harm's way and to engage in these battles. the right thing to do is give them what they need. so i think you will find a lot of resistance to those kinds of cuts to the defense this is not the time and we -- it's a moral obligation. if we send these young men and women out, we need to give them what they need to be successful in their endeavors and that's where you will see resistance from the republican side. >> congressman ann marie beu referen beurkle, thank you very much. >> thank you. it was great to be here. in a few minutes, we'll speak with benjamin kracardin. right back with that.

taking a look at capitol hill, the senate will be in session in less than 20 minutes from now. today, the entire u.s. economy

hangs in the balance with the debt ceiling deadline two days away. there is that vote scheduled for 1:00 p.m. eastern, but also pretty intense behind the scenes negotiations going on between congressional leaders and the white house. joining me now from washington, democratic senator benjamin cardin from maryland. and senator, a very good morning to you. with 15 minutes to go. you have to get in the chamber and start her up again today. are senators being told anything yet, sir? >> last night we were told that the negotiations had reached a point where there was a reason to have some optimism that we were able to get an agreement. but obviously the details were still not totally worked out and still some loose ends. hasn't been agreed to yet, but we have reason to have optimism that we're getting close. >> tell me what happened with regard to senator harry reid's vote on his bill on -- at 1:00. about an hour and 15 minutes from now. what does that mean in terms of

going forward? depending on the outcome of the vote? >> two things. first, harry reid's proposal is a compromise. a compromise because democrats have no revenues in it, plus we have yielded to the republicans to have dollar for dollar reduction in spending for the increase in the debt ceiling. so it represents a good faith compromise. second point, this is a cloture vote which means republicans if they don't vote for this, means they would filibuster, raising the debt ceiling, something we haven't done in the past. that's the real symbolism behind this vote. it's an important vote. we hope we will get the necessary 60 votes so that it is penneding and we can vote on it by majority vote. >> okay. how quickly could the senate potentially pass a bill today? could that happen right at 1:00? or would that be later on in the afternoon with amendments and tweaking? >> well, if the cloture vote

would pass there, is a required 30 hours of debate. any senator could block us for taking the vote off tomorrow. having said that, if we can reach an agreement. we hope we could allow earlier voting, get an agreement. may take some time to get that drafted. so i think the likely scenario, if we vanhave an agreement woule to vote on the compromise. >> how important is it to get the vast number of senators, more than 60 to present back to the house. what kind of message does that send? >> the important message here is if an agreement has been struck it is one that will get us past 2012, some stability in the markets and confidence we really are moving forward with no longer a threat on our credit, but also a credible plan to bring down the government debt. we had that, that's a really good message, hopefully will help the markets and the international community with

confidence and the u.s. dollar. that's the important message. how many votes actually, the number of senators that vote for it? my guess, you'll see senators on both sides of the aisle voting for and against, but enough votes to pass it? >> is that really a message to send to house tea party members as in stop doing what many have suggested are you doing, which is holding this country cost hostage or what's productive in the house? >> i think speaker boehner will have to rely on votes from the democrats to pass this. i don't think he has enough votes from his party to pass it. and quite frankly that might be healthy to have democrats and republicans joining together to get the necessary votes. >> what will be the final outcome? >> we'll have predictability, giving confidence to the international community and our own people that we were able to get past the debt ceiling crisis. an arbitrary crisis.

and i hope we have a credible plan to move forward to get our deficit under control. what many of us have been arguing that has to be balanced. between domestic and military spending, between spending and eliminating loopholes in our tax code. i hope that the final product represents that. obviously, i haven't seen it yet, but i think that's the message. two goals. increase the debt ceiling, credible plan to deal with the deficit. >> all right. democratic senator ben cardin, best of luck today. thank you for joining us. >> thank you. >> nbc's political director, chief white house correspondent and host of "the daily rundown" will pick up coverage at the top of the hour. right back with more. ♪ ♪ look at that car, well, it goes fast ♪ ♪ givin' my dad a heart attack ♪ [ friend ] that is so awesome.

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the ntsb and faa are both investigating a deadly mid-air collision in alaska. the two small xlaeplanes collid.

the accident happened in uncontrolled airspace. four people were killed. authorities call it a miraculous plane crash in south america. several passengers were hurt but no one was killed after this plane overshot the runway during a landing attempt in georgetown guyana this weekend. the flight originating from new york touched down on a wet runway, slid through a chain link fence and broke in half just before a 200-foot ravine. passengers describe the chaos. zblefr one was screaming. i can't explain. >> we all try to get -- we have to jump over plane. >> four people were taken to the hospital with serious injuries. the senate returns to session shortly. eight minutes from now as talks proceed with a deal said to be very close on raising the debt limit. joining me now, chief business correspondent for "u.s. news & world report," rick newman.

rick, i know investors are watching this extremely closely. what kind of impact could this have on the markets, both the mood and actual practicality of how they react? >> the markets are clearly very spooked. they've been going sideways. six losses in a row, six days in a row. i don't think we're necessarily going to see a rout tomorrow. i think a lot of people will be sitting on the sidelines. the thing here is that it is still a very low probability that there's something like a default or that there is no debt extension. but if that does happen the consequences will be severe so financial firms are trying to figure out how do you prepare for something that's probably not going to happen but would be severe in it does happen. they're really not sure what to do. >> i have to ask people the question what i asked you, when i tried to lead new a very positive answer, you didn't go for it. >> you're asking the wrong guy. >> this is not a silver lining kind of guy. but that said, account u.s. really see a downgrade now even

if we come to an agreement? >> it is distinctly possible. ratings agencies have been more an more clear about this and said just an agreement to extend the borrowing limit is not nearly enough. this has gotten really to the point where they have to see there is a credible plan in place to start fixing the debt problem. they don't need to see drastic spending cuts right away which might actually be worse because that could actually trigger another recession which would make the debt problem worse. they need to see a credible, rational plan that says we are going to tackle this problem in an incredibleal way and it is going to get more serious as the economy gets healthier. these just can't be empty promises. >> they want substance. >> if they don't, s&p has said 50%-50% the u.s. goes from aaa to something lower. >> which could be aa-plus or aa. that said, how does this play out into people's wallets? >> it is not necessarily a disaster. it means that i -- i won't take

you through all the daisychain of events but basically means interest rates will go up, maybe by a little bit at first, maybe by a little bit more. if this happens in kind of a predictable way, some things in the financial industry are tied to u.s. treasury securities. that includes pension funds, money market funds, things that affect millions and millions of ordinary people. so the financial industry all of it -- the whole global financial industry is going to have to recalibrate where we've got all these investment vehicles that are pegged to treasury securities. how do we need to tweak this and change this. if this happens in a measured and predictable way it won't necessarily be catastrophic but interest rates probably will go up and that will affect more rates and other consumer rates. >> okay, rick. thanks so much. that does it for me this morning. i'm alex witt. thanks so much for watching. my colleague chuck todd picks up our coverage at the top of the hour. he'll have the very latest on the plan under discussion on capitol hill to raise the debt

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developing now on msnbc -- do we have a deal? the senate is scheduled to cast a test vote in one hour on harry reid's compromised plan to avert a default on the debt. top senate republican mitch mcconnell says they are close to a new deal but white house advisor david plouffe says there's still some sticking points. >> well we don't have a deal. there's general agreement that we're going to have deficit reduction in two stages, the first something the parties largely agree on, about $1 trillion in deficit reduction. the second stage is going to be the trickier area of entitlements and tax reform. welcome to this special edition of msnbc on this sunday here in washington. let's go through the contours of what this deal, at least the framework, may look like. it begins of a