come on, seriously. >> he's tired. >> he's tired. >> i can't believe alex told you to stretch. >> alex, seriously? >> he doesn't need to be told to stretch. his default setting is stretch. >> where's chuck? let me tell you this story. i don't know if you guys know this or not, but i was in congress. so it was 1995. we had a government shutdown. and i say to newt, willie, if it's way too early, what time is it? >> stick around right now for "the daily rundown" with chuck. well, the dow bounces back. can the president come off one of the worst weeks of his presidency? what does he have to do to turn the tide? with even supporters losing a little faith. is it time for a big move? a grand gesture. what is it? democrats fall a seat short in the wisconsin recall election, leaving republicans in

control of the state senate there. it's a big victory for republican governor scott walker and his spending cuts that set off the firestorm of protests and a bigger defeat for organized labor. and senate democrats unveil their picks for the powerful new super deficit reduction super committee. harry reid picks at least one wild card. will republicans follow suit? it's wednesday, august 10th, 2011. i'm chuck todd. let's get right to my first reads of the morning. look, the economic anxieties gripping wall street and main street and now it's gripping democrats, and more of them are griping about the president. and supporters are afraid the economic crisis has become and has the potential to become a full-blown political crisis for the president. democrats want him to be assertive. they believe words matter. that it's worked in the past. but some are also looking for a gr grand gesture. maureen dowd called him withholder in chief.

it's an august ritual of sorts with the president. and in the past, mr. obama has almost reveled in the criticism. >> i'm always amused when the pundits in washington, you know, say boy, you know, obama hasn't gotten this passed yet. some of his supporters are disappointed about this. you know, the campaign, it was so smooth. you know. and i'm thinking, what campaign were they watching? >> look, there's agreement among supporters and advisers that they know they have a perception problem. they may not agree on the depth of this issue when it comes to the idea of leadership, the idea of running washington, is he in control? but the division comes to, does he need to do something big like bring congress back? as you heard terry mcauliffe say earlier this week on this show. or is it an august swoon, the typical story since he was candidate obama going all the way back to august '07.

only time will tell. harry reid announced his three picks to serve on the so-called super committee charged with coming up with $1.5 trillion in deficit reduction this fall. the three that he picked, senators max baucus, john kerry and patty murray. now, what's interesting here, there is a wild card. max baucus voted for the 2001 bush tax cuts. he worked with the bush administration on the prescription drug bill. reid is signaling he wants to be a statesman. the question is, will everybody else follow suit? the deadline for choosing members is august 16th. well, let's move on to wisconsin. a major blow for organized labor last night. democrats came up short in their proxy fight between the unions and business and republican governor scott walker. voters recalled two out of the six republican state senators who supported walker's law limiting collective bargaining. but a quote that sometimes gets contributed to vince lombardi,

winning isn't everything. republican state senator alberta darling who won the deciding race with 54% of the vote declared victory last night. >> i'm very proud to say we stood up against the special interest groups. we stood up against the unions, and we said the voters have the vote that counts! >> here's what i learned from the wisconsin fight. both parties are energized in that state. wisconsin really is a swing state this time. remember, it has voted with the democrats in every election going back since reagan in '84. that was the last time wisconsin went republican. i think we see this time this is going to be a very, very close battleground state. and finally, ames or bust. with three days until the straw poll and a big night tomorrow night, the candidates who have the most to gain or lose on saturday are doing everything they can to avoid getting overshadowed by the newest candidate in the race, rick perry. >> come from 9:00 to 5:00, we

have an air-conditioned tent. we've got chairs. we've got live, we've got country legend superstar randy travis live. we're also going to have a petting zoo for the kids and food. i mean, it is fun and entertainment. >> there you go. that's what michele bachmann's got going on saturday in ames. the hilton coliseum there. the tim pawlenty tour bus was crashed for americans for rick perry supporters and were wearing the burnt orange of texas. they were handing out literature. pawlenty and ron paul yesterday on the trail both talked about perry. >> i know rick perry. i respect him. i like him. we've traveled together internationally. i think for texas he did a really positive job for his state. but as he gets into the race like all of us, it will be an announcement opportunity. after that everybody's record gets scrutinized. >> i don't think people have a picture of our governor and the true picture will evolve as he gets involved in the race.

there are those who campaign part of the status quo. all he's going to do is dilute the status quo. >> well, there you go. ron paul painting rick perry as a member of the status quo. here's one thing you need to know about rick perry. he will not be in tomorrow night's debate. he's not participating in the straw poll. those are the last two presidential events he will not be a part of. the first debate he takes part in looks like it's going to be at the reagan library which is nbc news and politico. michele bachmann is doing all she can to draw opponents -- supporters to ames this saturday. he's bringing in, as you saw, country music legend randy travis, setting up a petting zoo for kids. nbc campaign reporter who is traveling with the congresswoman joins me now from des moines. all right. we know what her strategy is. she's trying to make it as entertaining as possible, to make it easier for folks to come. what else are you seeing? is she renting buses? what else are you seeing in what she's trying to do to get people to come to ames?

>> good question, chuck. the campaign will have buses. they haven't told me how many. they've told me that they're not interested in telling me how many. but they will have buses. and there will be a tent there. randy travis, as you say. and every time i ask them what they expect out of ames, chuck, they say, we're focused on doing well there. we're focused on continuing to meet the voters of iowa. and then south carolina and then new hampshire. so i would say discipline is their posture. >> it's hard to imagine anything less would be acceptable to them at this point. now, yesterday you did some reporting on this bachmann response on the issue of the "newsweek" cover. and they seemed to, no matter how many times people ask them about it, they're not attacking tina brown or "newsweek." >> no. they want to remain above the fray, chuck. when i talk to the campaign, they say they're not interested in getting into this discussion. they want to remain focused on

ames, on meeting the voters of iowa, but they also said the campaign also told me that the photo was taken during a lighting test, and the campaign had an opportunity, chuck, to indicate its preferences. they were able to see some of the photos, they say. they tell me. and that the photo that finally appeared on the cover of "newsweek," chuck, was not among the photos that they indicated that they liked to "newsweek," chuck. >> i was surprised to hear that actually "newsweek" gave them photos to pick from in the first place. jamie traveling -- >> and i should say, chuck, that -- right. and "newsweek" tells nbc that the bachmann campaign was not given a choice. >> fair enough. jamie, i will see you tomorrow in iowa. all right. let's go to tim pawlenty. he knows saturday's straw poll could make or break his candidacy. and he's leaving nothing to chance. he's spending over $1 million in organizing, hitting up half a dozen campaign events a day. he's also got a chance to make waves at tomorrow's republican

debate where we may see a more aggressive candidate this time around. >> everybody's got their own style. you know, i've got more than one gear. and i think people want to see what hopeful, can-do optimistic leadership with results. i certainly provided that as governor of minnesota. but i also put the hammer down when i need to. >> he's promising to put the hammer down. andrew rafferty is our man traveling with pawlenty. he joins me by phone from adel, iowa. >> hey, chuck. >> how you doing? how's the pawlenty campaign feeling? yesterday you had some reporting showing that the intensity for him at some of these events isn't the same as you see with a bachmann or others. >> yeah. well, he's out talking to about -- he'll get about 30 or 40 folks at these meet and greets throughout iowa. and it's very low-key. he just kind of comes in, talks, takes some questions, spends about an hour. yesterday i was at a gop picnic

where michele bachmann was also speaking. she spoke briefly for tim pawlenty. and the contrast is really striking. it's like a rock concert with michele bachmann. she's got the music blaring. she's got her big tour bus. she's yelling "i love you" to all her supporters. where pawlenty is no-nonsense, comes, takes questions, runs on his record. the support, it's a mix of support. both candidates have very different styles. >> do you get the picture that they realize how much pressure is on them to perform well at this straw poll? >> well, they certainly know. they certainly know what's at stake. they're not putting out expectations too high. the theme that we heard throughout the week is movement. "the des moines register" poll had them around six. and they expect to move up four or five places. you've got to think that they need to at least finish in the top three. governor pawlenty has said he

doesn't feel like they need to win it. but they really need to solidify themselves as one of the top contenders. >> andrew rafferty traveling, making a lot of stops, probably more than anybody, it seems, this week when it comes to any of the candidates. see you on the trail. >> see the winnebago drive by. >> atlantic, winterset, denison, harlan. markets bounce back from monday's plunge with their best day in two years. let's bring in cnbc's becky quick. becky. what's it going to be today? you tell me. >> the markets around here are just like the weather. you don't like it, you wait a few minutes and you'll see things change. but we thought perhaps we had seen a bottom put in. that was the hope yesterday when the market rallied at the end of the session. today we're giving a lot of it back. in over the last five or ten minutes, we have seen the markets rapidly decline. it looks like the dow will open

down by about 230 points. so all those gains we got back yesterday, giving back a lot of them in these first early moments. markets going to open in less than 20 minutes at this point. gold prices have been climbing once again. there's not a real reason for any of this. there's a lot of volatility. there's a lot of nervousness, and that plays out on a daily basis right here. as soon as you see a rally, people tend to sell into that rally. tomorrow we've got jobless claims, and that will be important for the market. >> becky quick at cnbc's world headquarters, thanks very much. >> thanks, chuck. coming up, we're going to bust out the 2012 battleground maps, and i'm bringing out the ipad. chris solizza will be here with his ten states that will decide the presidency. what's interesting is what's not on this list. plus, anti-abortion, anti-tax anti-taxes, anti-gay marriage. sometimes it seems like the only thing republicans running for president aren't against is more pledges. we'll take a look at the effect of pledges on politics this

year. and do a lot of "p" words. first, a look ahead at the president's schedule. you're watching "the daily rundown" on msnbc. ben and his family live on this block. ben's a re/max agent, and he's a big part of this community. re/max agents know their markets, and they care enough to get to know you, too. nobody sells more real estate than re/max. visit remax.com today.

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all right. what's it going to take to win the white house in 2012? the president's poll numbers suggest it could come down to ten states. iowa, pennsylvania, florida, north carolina, virginia, new mexico, ohio, nevada, arizona and colorado. what was the common thread here? president obama won nearly all of them in 2008 except arizona. but currently, according to gallup, polls below 50% in every single one of these, but above 44% in job approval.

with me, chris solizza. >> love it. >> the daily gallup tracking poll i hate. it's almost like an ekg. but the upside of it, they get all of this data state-by-state data, so they're able to do a month-long look. >> this is six months. >> six months. so they're able to do an average. >> it's a lot of interviews. >> a lot of interviews and a much more credible thing. here are the states on here. most of them are not surprising. i would say the most surprising is arizona. how seriously do we take it? is this one of those states that's a not there yet but? >> not there yet but. in 2008, i think if john mccain, arizona senator, had not been the nominee, given what we know about the electorate in 2008, we could have seen barack obama win. >> like indiana or north carolina. >> or a north carolina. i don't see it happening this time. yes, the latino vote is big in that state. yes, we expect it to go heavily for him, but i don't think it's there yet.

>> iraaarizona, it's going to g before texas becomes a swing state. let's go on the other side of, of these ten, and let's go to pennsylvania. this is the state that we were just talking, there are swing r% that's the republican party. >> like we say about new jersey, chris christie pulled it off. ohio, florida, virginia, north carolina. >> let's talk about florida because, you know, we're in your area of expertise. this is a state that obama won. >> look at that. it's right on the number.

47% nationally and 47%. >> and it's grown, it gains two more electoral votes, which is even more important. republicans will have a very important primary down in florida in the early nominating process. so, you know, i think that we're going to be talking about florida again at the end of a very late night. >> we do know that team obama loves the growth states, states that are growing, they feel like they can do well with voter registration, young minority population. what also intrigues me, i'm going to pull up ohio. it's my understanding the obama campaign believes they can win the presidency and lose ohio, that they almost have to plan for that. >> you know, you said the states that they like, younger states, states with a young population, minority population. >> this is not one of those states. >> no. >> older, whiter and shrinking. >> and we talked about pennsylvania. he carried ohio and pennsylvania in '08. but in the primaries he lost ohio and pennsylvania to hillary clinton. this is a state he's never been the kind of native son. they've loved him.

i think they can win without ohio, but that means they win places like north carolina, virginia, colorado, new mexico, nevada. you know, can they? sure. will they? we don't know. >> i've got to ask you about two states not on here, wisconsin and new hampshire, which means that it didn't fall into gallup's 44% to 49%. wisconsin, 50. >> i feel like wisconsin is an asterisk. >> we saw that last night. it's going to be a swing state. what's the matter with kansas? what's the matter with new hampshire? 40 in new hampshire. >> not 40s, 40. >> 4-0 approval. remember license plate, live free or die. those people do not like government. i actually think new hampshire is more of a problem than the obama political team does. it's a small state. it's only four electoral votes. >> romney is the nominee. >> we're going to see a close election. four electoral votes could make the difference. >> chris, going to see you a lot in the next couple of weeks, brother. thanks for being here. still ahead, we'll take you

live to the opening bell on wall street. can stocks keep up their rally? plus taking the pledge. what is it about this political season that's causing pledges with their pledge pins? since 1980 in the years without an incumbent republican president running for re-election, how many times has a dole or a bush won the iowa caucuses? tweet me, the answer @chucktodd, @dailyrundown. i'm going to be live in des moines at java joe's, good friend of the show. 8:00 a.m. in des moines. come on down and watch the show, you iowans. and on saturday, don't miss a special primetime edition of "the daily rundown." we'll be the results show for the ames straw poll. we'll be right back. what's up, smart? oh, just booked a summer vaycay. ooo. sounds pricey? nah, with the hotels.com summer sale, you can find awesome deals for places nearby.

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cycle, republican canned dates are being flooded with pledges to sign for taxes to marriage and everything in between. already some candidates have gotten into trouble for not reading what they've signed. nbc news political reporter joins me now. pledge pin, i'm thinking "animal house" routine here. lots of pledges going on. >> everyone wants to know what a politician is going to do. and this year more than ever they're asking candidates to put it in writing. >> reporter: when most think of pledges, they likely think of this. >> i pledge allegiance to the flag. >> reporter: but republicans are being bombarded for requests they sign pledges from everything from abortion to gay marriage to spending and, of course, taxes. one from a group this iowa was billed as anti-gay marriage, but the 1,000-word, 14-point pledge was about much more, including language signers must agree with that married people have better sex and that black children during slavery were more likely to be raised by two parents than

today. just two candidates signed on. congresswoman michele bachmann and rick santorum both backtracked later saying they hadn't fully read it. but one pledge stands apart. there's one pledge, the taxpayer protection pledge, and then there are other things which are questionnaires or things that want a written commitment, but there really is only one pledge. >> reporter: grover norquist has made his no new taxes pledge to entrenched in washington that norquist says not a single house republican has voted for a tax increase in 21 years. and every republican presidential candidate this year except former utah governor jon huntsman has signed it. in 1988, the no taxes pledge became an issue in the new hampshire primary between republican bob dole and pete dupont. >> sign it. >> i'd have to read it first. maybe george will. >> reporter: both dodged the pledge and lost the nomination. that year's nominee, george h.w.

bush, signed it. >> read my lips, no new taxes. >> reporter: but he raised taxes two years later. norquist blames the tax hike for bush's 1992 defeat. >> he signed the pledge. he broke the pledge. and he lost the presidency. >> reporter: when dole ran again in 1996, he caved and signed with norquist looking on and went on to win the nomination. but not everyone falls in line. >> everybody knows there's going to have to be a compromise on some sort of revenue increases. we make the major cuts. that's just fact. you can deny it. and grover's old news. it doesn't matter what he says. it doesn't matter what he wants. >> coburn looks pretty foolish, doesn't he? >> reporter: there was no tax compromise on the debt ceiling deal. a special committee is scheduled to meet. six republicans, six democrats, to try to iron out the impasse over revenue. norquist remains confident. >> the one thing that committee won't do is raise taxes. >> well, and i asked norquist if

one man unelected should have shkis this kind of sway, and on message, people don't want their taxes raised. >> the rest of them people are signing. those guys probably feel comfortable violating it. this one that he has proved. >> right. and there are at least they have had to sign including two now on gay marriage, including one this past week. >> and the one that doesn't sign them is huntsman. >> no. >> romney has been signing most of them. >> although huntsman does have a meeting scheduled with norquist. >> fun footage. you know i love that archive stuff. buckle up. minutes away from the opening bell. looks like another rough day and another bumpy ride. plus, the chaos is spreading in london. a massive crackdown after four days of violent rioting. indiana governor mitch daniels will be joining me with his plan to improve education in his state. could it be key to fixing our nation's schools? a little "education nation" segment coming up. we'll get his thoughts on the republican race for the

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about the tom of the hour now. a quick look at what's driving the day. it's all about wall street where the opening bell has just rung. what can we expect today? well, the dow is down, opened 180 points down. look now, it's already over 200. you're going to have whiplash watching today. it's probably what a lot of experts have been telling us this morning. if you're of the faint of heart, turn it off. anyway, not helping matters, a poll of wall street economists believed there was a one in three chance that the country will slip back into the technical definition of a recession. asian markets, by the way, look stronger today, but the european stocks were mixed, at best. a few other stories maked

headlines, 16 police finally brought a semblance of calm yesterday in london. unrest has spread to other british cities like manchester and birmingham. police have arrested more than 1,100 people. the obama administration is reportedly preparing to call on syrian president assad to step down. the administration wants to level tough new sanctions against assad and his regime after months of ruthless crackdowns on pro-reform protesters. the news comes this morning just as syrian tanks stormed two towns near the border with turk turkey. and what happened here, the turkish diplomacy efforts have failed. you have saudi arabia now condemning the violence. suddenly as more in the middle east speak out. the united states is doing the same. and a big military milestone potentially for china as the country launched its first aircraft carrier today. the 300-meter vessel, it's based

on an empty hull bought from the ukraine years ago. the launch is a key step in the country's efforts at rapid military modernization, a long-term strategy to challenge u.s. naval supremacy in asia. america's first black secret service agent has died. charles gittins passed away. the u.s. secret service confirmed yesterday he was the first african-american to serve in the agency. described as an outstanding guy, gittins joined the outfit in 1956 and went on to mentor many other young african-american agents. he was 82. all right. now to our making the grade segment, indiana is one of several states expected to take the obama administration's offer to waive certain requirements of the no child left behind law. reforms implemented by governor mitch daniels and the state's school superintendent seem to be working there. indiana is only one of ten states ranked above average on the readiness of students in math and science.

joining me now, governor mitch daniels. we saw arne duncan come out, secretary of education, offer up this waiver program because it looks like a revamped version of no child left behind isn't going to get through this congress any time soon. what are some of the waivers you're going to be asking for? >> first let me thank secretary duncan. i think he's doing exactly the right thing here, chuck. ideally congress would have gotten organized to make the necessary modifications. but in the absence of that, i think it's right for the department to act. and we're most interested in the flexibility to measure the growth of students, not simply their absolute levels, taking into account that the teacher or the school does not control the level at which kids enter school. and what we're doing in indiana is measuring and then holding schools accountable, rewarding those teachers who help a child grow at least a year for every year in the classroom. that's the single most important thing, change that we could ask

for. and the secretary, to his credit, is going to provide it. >> you know, it's interesting, governor, you were in the bush add when no child left behind was created. it was a bipartisan effort between ted kennedy and the president, john boehner involved in that. and when the law was written at the time, what wasn't foreseen, and now that you're on the state side of things, what wasn't foreseen at the time when they wrote the law that has made it frankly so controversial to so many state governors regardless of party? >> first i'd say the law gets more than it deserves. we needed accountability in education. we came off decades in which the education establishment just said shovel in some more money and shut up. the national policy finally said no, we want to see every child have a chance to succeed in life. we're tired of minority kids and others being hidden. their failure being hidden in the averages. so the general idea of no child left behind deserves the bipartisan support that it had.

but it was a pretty clumsy implement as was quickly learned. i go back to the point i made earlier. it isn't fair to hold a teacher or a school accountable for a child who might have arrived at school with very, very far behind, it may be impossible for that kid to pass a test that's really meant for those students who are succeeding. but it is fair to see whether that teacher, that principal, that school district is helping the child grow and catch up over time. that's the kind of flexibility that secretary duncan is going to afford us. >> what is the federal accountability that should be there? that's what i think has been the push and pull over decades in this fight between local control of schools, but at the same time you want some sort of national standards of some sort that make students competitive globally. >> i think this is another example, chuck, a great one of where the -- we're all learning

together and making improvements. the idea of the federal government setting national standards would be a terrible one. but the states have not waited on washington, really. they have acted together. almost every state now part of a program to draw up among us some standards. so we're all jumping over the same bar. we know how our kids rank compared to kids elsewhere. but it's not controlled from washington. i think that's another good example of how we're learning, finally, to implant some accountability into public education without forfeiting local control. >> you know, i can't help myself, i've got to ask you a couple political questions. number one, what do you think of the field with rick perry as a member of the republican presidential field that you're not a member of. a lot of people wanted you to be. >> i don't know. obviously, rick didn't think it was. maybe there will be a few

others. i think the more the merrier. i think it's got some really good people in it. people of the character and skill set to be president. you know, my one hope is that the republican field will speak the language of unity, will explain to every american, we are in this together. we have a mathematical problem with the debt, and we have a transcendent problem to get this economy growing at a much faster rate. whatever your situation in life, you have a stake in that. so let's come together and take those actions that will be effective at a faster growing american economy that therefore can pay the debts we've piled up. >> we have heard governors have been sitting on the sidelines waiting to rally around somebody. a bunch of them were ready to rally around you or potentially haley barbour. you both decide not to run. do you expect these governors to rally around rick perry? >> i'm not sure. i think it all dependses on what

governor perry or other candidates have to say. governors as a species, we're pretty action oriented and practical. you have to be in one of these jobs. whatever candidate, whether -- we've got some other former governors in the field who could be contenders, i think, to attract and excite people like me and my colleagues. >> and do you plan on endorsing before the primaries end, or are you going to stay out of this? >> well, first, i don't know who would care of what i thought, but i'm just waiting and seeing. as i said, there are a lot of good people out there. a lot of -- i could easily imagine supporting enthusiastically. it's not -- that's not in question. what i want to hear is what they have to say, how clearly and boldly and positively they're ready to say to america the kind of things i suggested a minute ago. >> no regrets?

>> i'm pretty busy at a job i care a lot about. i've got 18 months to try to make indiana schools even a lot better than they are now. and that will keep me busy. >> so no second thoughts, huh? >> no, sir. >> okay. governor mitch daniels, thanks for coming on this morning, talking education and a little politics. appreciate it. join msnbc this sunday, august 14th, at noon for a special two-hour program. it's called "a stronger america: making the grade." we'll be live from de's hosted also ctributing. and you can be a part of that conversation right now at facebook.com/strongeramerica and follow it on twitter @strongeramerica. coming up, it's hump day panel time. the dow plunging once again. yea! we'll talk about this volatility, how it affects the politics of this country and, of course, we'll talk about the expectation ames. get it?

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prominent early supporters of president obama. i remember, you were a constant presence on this channel and others. >> that's right. >> let me tell you what maureen dowd writes in "the new york times." faced with a country keening for reassurance and reinvention, he turns out to be the odd case of a pragmatist who can't learn from his mistakes and adapt. they want him to do simply something. what say you? >> barack obama is a phenomenal communicator. we all know that. but there's something that he lacks that ronald reagan and bill clinton had. they knew how to communicate with people who don't agree with them. clinton learned it coming up in arkansas politics where he had to go into a roomful of people. if you got to 40, you were doing well. coming up in chicago politics in a democratic environment, obama didn't have to learn that skill.

ronald reagan -- people rejected his whole world view. for barack obama to be successful in 2012, he's going to have to find a way to start communicating and making a case not just to people who are inspired by him and who love him, but to people who frankly disagree with the way he views the world. he's got to find a way to talk to them in their language and start to move them. >> jennifer ruben, george bush faced a similar issue at this point in his presidency. democrats thought they smelled blood and thought he was vulnerable. bush sort of made this calculation, look. i am who i am. you're going to have to deal with it, and then went after the other guy. it worked. but the second term wasn't a very productive term. republicans seemed to smell blood in the water. are republicans going to go with their head or their heart? it seems rick perry is a choice between the head and the heart. >> let's start by saying if maureen dowd and jennifer rubin sound alike, we're in trouble.

i think you're right, there's going to be a choice between a romney and a not romney. it remains to be seen whether perry or bachmann will be the not romney. we have to think, do we want who way not be the most authentic conservative, the most devoted conservative, but who has a broader appeal to the general audience because we really want to win the white house. or are they going to go for the most conservative person they can find who's still standing on the ballot when they get to their state? >> christine, i look at '04 and '08. democrats went with their head in '04 and more with their heart in '08. 23 they were less sure about winning the white house in '08, you might have seen more democrats hold off on obama and would have gone with what would have been a safer nom any no hillary clinton. republicans, you get the sense with some of these primary voters, they don't want to go with the safe choice. >> no. they're looking for this fighter. i think that's something obama did prove in 2008. he defeated clinton who was obviously one of the toughest campaigners, had this very tough campaign family that he was going up against.

and he has won these big contested primaries, never had to sort of get to that middle ground and wing the swing vote as we just talked about. but i think the calculations the obama people are making is that it doesn't matter who the republican nominee is because they can keep democrats because who else are you going to choose? >> and that's been the argument. the base is with him. they're not happy. they know that if they did somehow come up with a ridiculous primary challenger, you could be as successful as pat buchanan was against george h.w. bush, it just causes problems. >> can rick perry turn into someone who has a message for white working-class voters in ohio and pennsylvania and michigan? can he take the social conservatives under the skills he has in speaking to the right of the republican party. he's extremely good at the prayer piece he did. this guy is a preacher. >> but he's speaking to people who already agree with him. >> but can he develop a message, an economic message to white

working-class voters? if perry can pull that off, then he could be the bill clinton of this cycle. the guy's talent carries him. >> i want to bring mitt romney. mckinnon said he will put romney on the microwave and turn it up on high. ask kay bailey hutchison. >> his friends agree that he's a bare knuckles politicians. romney has had some sniping below his feet, he had tim pawlenty in that iconic debate in his presence, so he really hasn't been challenged head-on with someone who has good conservative credentials. on the other hand we haven't seen rick perry on the national stage. if you've seen the national media, you really haven't. there's a big question mark.

is this an evangelical fred thompson or -- >> or does he are real -- >> and we won't see rick perry nationally, either. he will be announcing. hey, we get the first debate with rick perry at the reagan library. i'm happy about that. stick around. we asked since 1980s, how many times has a dole or a bush won the iowa caucuses. ready for this? four times. so ready for this? it's every time but once in 2008, when huckabee won the caucus winner. five competitive caucuses, and one time was a guy not named dole or bush. ♪ let me do a few tricks ♪ some old and then some new tricks ♪ ♪ i'm very versatile ♪ so let me entertain you

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bachmann v. pawlenty. what's going on here? our folks on the ground show bachmann with a ton of energy, paw leviny not so much. >> i think that's exactly right. i think pawlenty is one of the candidates that seem good on paper, just has not connected with audiences, hasn't projected that sense of authority. i don't see any sign he's making progress on the ground. >> but there's a guy like this every cycle, john glenn at one point, on paper they look great, they're running on their ultimate electability, but never put -- >> there's still vendors in alabama that haven't been paid by the glenn committee, i believe. . >> she's talking about romney more than anyone else. i would say tim pawlenty has huckabee performing -- and so does rick santorum. >> apparently huckabee is going to be performing everywhere. quickly shameless plug.

>> i am a dog love, send pictures of your favorite paw with its pet to right term. >> i will be hosting xm's press pool tomorrow from noon to 3:00. >> i like jennifer's writing, and rod blath, two of the best conservative bloggers in the country. >> shame his, yeah, thank you, everybody. that's it for this edition. five straight days on the roared. tomorrow i'll be live in iowa. saturday don't miss a special primetime episode. chris jannen -- jansing & company is next. and a choice. take advil now and maybe up to four in a day. or choose aleve and two pills for a day free of pain. way to go, coach. ♪

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good morning. i'm chris jansing. we're going to begin with breaking news out of the afghanistan. coalition forces strike back. they have killed taliban militants responsible for