on msnbc. have a great weekend, guys. >> yeah. >> all right. ♪ minnesota, nice? how about ice? as in cold as. bachmann and pawlenty spar bitterly at the republican debate, both correctly realize how the race will get a good shake-up after tomorrow's straw poll. and another debate where romney goes virtually untouched. but his iowa moment wasn't last night it was earlier at the state fair debating democratic hecklers. by the way, how does rick perry feel this morning, assuming he even watched last night's debate? then i go to the state fair where politics goes hand in hand with farm animals, music, all fried food on a stick that you can eat. just a little taste of what sarah palin's going to expect when she shows up there today. it's friday, august 12, 2011, i'm chuck todd and this is a special edition of "the daily

rundown" coming to you live from java joe's in des moines, iowa. the come to the hawkeye state for the straw poll for republicans who want to challenge president obama in 2012. make sure to tune in again tomorrow at 6:00 p.m. eastern, a special primetime edition, "the daily rundown" comes from ames with the live straw poll results. trite my first read of the morning. let's get to the debate. no more minnesota nice. the final debate white house texas governor rick perry in the race will be known as the night two minnesota republicans vying for their own political life held little back. with the ames straw poll tomorrow, tim pawlenty showed it's now or never for him repeatedly going after michele bachmann, and she returned the favor. >> it's an undisputable fact that in congress her record of accomplishment and results is non-existent. >> when it came to health care i brought ten of thousands of americans to washington to fight the unconstitutional individual mandate.

i didn't praise it. when it came to cap and trade, i fought it with everything that was in me, including i introduced the light bulb freedom of choice act. >> she's got a record of misstating and making false statements. if that's your view of effective leadership with results, please, stop, because you're killing us u. said the era of small government was over. that sounds a lot more like barack obama, if you ask me. >> bachmann feels she got the best of pawlenty for now. but is he like the guy who jump and the grenade? maybe sacrificing himself to help the rest of the field figure out how to attack her? he got her to slip up a couple of times when one of her three accomplishments is a light bulb bill, that was not necessarily one of her best moments. that said, it was tough for pawlenty. he went after others there, and there's that fine line of being tough and looking desperate. mitt romney, rick perry's long shadow hanging over him got through another debate unscathed

and largely on the sideline. pawlenty tried to engage him to prove he wasn't the pushover her looked like at the last debate. >> obamacare was patterned after mitt's plan in massachusetts. and for mitt or anyone else to say that there are unsubstantial similarities or not essentially the same plan, it just is incredible. >> i think i like tim's answer the last debate better. >> things actually got more heated for romney earlier in the day when he talk down a democratic protester at the iowa state fair. >> hang on a second -- >> and you-doctor. >> hold on a second. i'm not going to raise taxes. that's my answer. i'm not going to raise taxes. and if you want someone that can raise taxes you can vote for barack obama. >> how good does romney campaign feel about that moment? they're now e-mailing it around in a fund-raising e-mail calling it their "iowa moment."

it did show, you heard republicans say behind the scenes, the first time he has shown some fire. shown some fight. it is what a lot of republican primary voters are looking for. finally, because of time constraints, some of the other lively exchanges have ended up on the cutting room floor, but not here. we'll call it the page a4 story. ron paul proving he can knock his party off message like nobody else and newt gingrich apparently ate his wheaty. he entertained the crowd, that's for shunch for sure. >> iran is not icelands. been at war with us since 1979. ask israelis what keeps them up at night. if iranians are -- >> you've heard the war propaganda that is liable to lead us into the sixth war and i worry about that position. >> just like we did in iraq. build up to war propaganda.

there was no al qaeda in iraq and they had nuclear weapons and we had to go in. i'm sure you supported that war as well. >> and then one of the odder changes was gingrich. he didn't go after the opponents, he went after his former employer. >> does too much attention paid by the press corps about the campaign minutia and not enough paid by the press corps to the basic ideas to distinguish us from barack obama. >> now, look, the question about his campaign is relevant in this, for this reason. you're running to run the biggest entity in the world, the united states government. if you can't run your campaign there is going to be questions about whether you can run the country. that said it is hard to figure out full-fledged winners and losers. everybody had some moments that were good for them that they needed, whether it was bachmann, pawlenty, whether it was romney, but you've got to wonder for

unaffiliated republicans the turn that the race has made, republicans are going after each other more than going after president obama, is something that has to concern them a little bit. all right. so we saw minnesota nights go bad, michele bachmann and plenty went toe-to-toe, last chance before tomorrow's straw poll. with us, tim pawlenty's campaign manager. >> the coffee is very good. >> it's great. not waffle house, but it's great. >> we'll see. we may have to bring the waffle house -- lgts right. >> your guy, lots of heat last night. poked at michele bachmann and mitt romney. at any point do you feel he brought too much heat? >> we saw a candidate comfort in his own skin speaking in his own voice and largely talking about his own record, chuck. that's what govern every pawlenty showed up to talk about last night, about his record, not of talking and not about rhetoric but of actually achieving results for the conservative movement and he did it in one of the most democratic

states in the country, and it was in stark contrast to a candidate who's now re-invented himself again, the former governor of massachusetts and a candidate who has no record of results. she does a really good job talking about the right issues and said the right things for the last six years in congress, but when 2 it comes to actually achieving anything, she led the fight guess t.a.r.p., against governor spending and obamacare and didn't have an answer for governor pawlenty when he said, if you led all of those fights, stop. please, stop. you're hurting us. then, by the way, her own retort, push back on misleading statements and allegations of which she has a long history of. >> i want to push back here. >> sure. >> what michele bachmann was saying about governor pawlenty, trying to point out that he seems to have changed some of his views. the era of small government is over? >> retracted two days later in the newspaper. >> two other thing. he regretted the cigarette tax, since recigaretted his position

on cap and trade. so you just made the case that mitt romney re-invented himself. how is this not a reinvention. >> for this exact reason. governor pawlenty stepped up and said i'm not ducking, dodging or weaving. >> apologizing? >> i've made mistakes. stark contrast with governor romney, defending a plan that was the blueprint for obamacare. ultimately, voters, they don't need perfection. they want authenticity and honesty. >> one of the other moments of that debate when they were asked, would they take a ten to one spending cuts to a tax deal, all said they wouldn't do it. aaa, he did agree to a tax increase, and since apologized for it. so as president, he wouldn't take a ten to one deal, authentic moment? >> of course it is. the situation in minnesota is different than the situation the country is facing. last night he said, look, i wish i would have held out the

government shut down longer. the first govern flerin 130 yeao shut down government. that's not what the country need. the country doesn't need tax increase. >> going to the straw poll. do you feel -- everybody says you have to finish strong. how about straight talk? is strong first or second? >> strong is showing significant movement. we feel we have the best team in politics led by sarah huckabee sanders. doing a tough job. >> everybody agrees, best organization. if it's all about organization, you should win. >> i don't know. we would have to show a lot of progress in order to do that. just last month the des moines register showed us in sixth or seventh place. in four weeks going from sixth or seventh to first would be a big challenge. look, we hope to show real movement on saturday and believe we're going to do that. we've got a good team on the ground. our ads effective. most importantly, our candidate, traveled 2,600 miles throughout iowa is beginning to resonate. >> you went all-in on the straw

poll? >> made a big investment in the straw poll, feel it's the kickoff to the campaign season and we needed to show real movement. >> nick ayers, see you tomorrow. >> the sonic slush, two popular bands, the big hit, the dairy queen blizzard. >> by the way, we should wish sarah huckabee a happy birthdays. >> happy birthdays. up next, joini ining our kaffeeklatsch. sharing wisdom, and ask about his trip to the state fair with mitt romney, and what he thinks of the entire 2012 field and what his fave rid fried item is. first a look ahead at the president's schedule, kind of a quiet day today. we'll see. he honors the green bay packers. it's killing me on the day he's honoring the packers i am not there. erin rogers, leave me something. you're watching "the daily

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and we're back live here at java joe's. tremendous hosts for us here and every time that we broadcast live from des moines. i'm joined by iowa's senior senator chuck bradley. a front row seat for all of the state's republican straw polls dating back to 1979. not trying to date you, senator. >> okay. >> but he joins me now. you watched this debate last night i. sure did. >> give 345me your overall sens. a good night for the republican party's goal of defeating president obama? because i felt like maybe they got off track a little bit. >> no, i don't think they got off track at all, because they were concentrating on what was

wrong with our country, and that's the discredited policies of the president, and i think that that's our strong suit. everybody seemed to be on the same page in regard to that. there were some candidates, a little more specific on what, how they would counter that, but i think they all came off very strong. and i think question be proud of the group of candidates we have thus far and presumably we're going to have some more. >> later today -- that's probably true -- saturday rick perry. later today yew accompany a couple more to the straw poll. rick santorum, tim pawlenty. you walked around net with mitt romney. he's in the lead, still haven't proven himself, he's running high in the polls because he's a businessman but not so high. he has could tum here, compete for delegates and convince people. do you think he made a mistake by not competing in the straw poll? >> i think he looked at it this

way. he spent a lot of resources here over the last you know, four years ago, and a lot of resources, and it didn't seem to pay off when it came to delegates. i think his idea, although i don't know his strategy totally i but i think it's to concentrate between now and that period of time. my advice wasn't nationally as how you do things in iowa. like campaigning for sheriff. he's got to show people he wants to be president the united states, and if he does that he can compete here, even though he hasn't spent a lot of time here so far. >> you've also expressed concern over the last six months. you really would like to see the winner of the iowa caucus beat someone that can beat the nomination. you feel like, the implication, you feel too many unelectable people have ended up winning the iowa caucuses. is that -- in the past. how do you think about that? >> okay. i think one and only one way for my point of view, because you can do well in iowa, but you've got to be able to compete in new

hampshire, south carolina, nevada. you name the states that come up right afterwards, and can you do well in iowa, but if you don't have the resources to go beyond. so i'm looking for people that are qualified to be president, number one. number two, doing reasonably well until iowa but have the resources to go beyond and bible to put on a national campaign and hopefully able to put on a national campaign you're just not relying on taxpayer funded campaigns like mccain had to, and raise resources so you can compete financially with president obama. >> you haven't endorsed yet but haven't ruled out endorsing? is that your criteria? you want somebody who not only you can support but you think actually can get the nomination? you're not going with somebody, maybe, because they touch a cord with the conservative core of the -- >> in particular, just in the iowa. as important as iowa is, you've got to bounce from here to make sure you can carry it through,

and that basically is resources. and when you get to other states, a lot of times that's resources just to the able to spend a lot of money on tv. i wish it weren't that way, but it tends to be less retail politics in some of the states than it is in iowa like where it's kind of running for sheriff. >> you've been in the united states senate 1980, i believe. >> yeah. >> the two people you served with every year since then, dick lugar and orrin hatch, both runs for their lives in republican primaries. do you think it's unfair that they're having to deal with this tea party insurgency a bit that their record is, they're just not -- are they really not conservative enough for your republican party? >> they are very, very conservative, but here's what you've got to look at. the dynamics of american politics, and keeping everybody, even chuck grassley, anybody else that's been in the senate a long time, we've got to make sure we stay responsive to the grass roots of america. the representative policies of our government, and whether it's

right or wrong for lugar or hatch to have opposition, it is what's traditional about american politics, and they as well as every one of us have to be very thankful for the tea party movement, because, you know, prior to this year, everything was, are we going to increase expenditures a little built or a lot? >> you think tea party movement has been good for republicans? >> absolutely. because everything now in washington from the standpoint of the bad fiscal policies of this president is cut, cut, cut. not how much are we going to increase, but has are we going to do to get this thing under control and do it in a dramatic way, number one, on fiscal policy, and number two, follow the constitution. >> all right. senator chuck grassley, senior senator in iowa. see are tomorrow at ames. >> yes. still ahead what do you get when you mix a reporter, fried food on sticks and a camera. by the way, i didn't ask you. what's your favorite on a stick? >> mine would be the pork chop.

but that's a bone. >> my trip tight wa state fair next. live here at java joe's, david axelrod, senior strategist for president obama's campaign. first today's question, how many winners of the ames straw poll have gone on to win the ames straw caucuses? the answer and more coming up on "the daily rundown" live here from java joe's. [ female announcer ] what if your natural beauty could be flawless too? discover aveeno positively radiant tinted moisturizers with scientifically proven soy complex and natural minerals. give you sheer coverage instantly, then go on to even skin tone in four weeks. aveeno tinted moisturizers. it's schwab at your fingertips wherever, whenever you want. one log in lets you monitor all of your balances and transfer between accounts, so your money can move as fast as you do. check out your portfolio, track the market with live updates. and execute trades anywhere and anytime

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and we're back here live here at java joes. it's the morning. we need a lot of caffeine. late nights and early mornings. so speaking of a late night and early morning, my next guest here, while potential opponents were locked away in debate prep yesterday, the president took his rhetoric on the road and as you may expect, he has tough words for an opponent he'd like

to run against. congress. >> this downgrade you've been reading about could have been entirely avoided if there had been a willingness to compromise in congress. there's some in congress right now who would rather see their opponents lose than see america win. >> well, is this the stronger president obama? some critics have been waiting for? is it too little, too late? never too little, too late. we're joined by the senior political strategist for president obama's re-election campaign, david axelrod. okay. >> chuck. >> i want to ask you, he actually addressed an issue that had become a debate point in the beltway. i know how you guys feel about us beltway folks sometimes. bring congress back, a rough road for the president personally. questions about his leadership, but also the economy, the downgrade. the tea malttuous stock market and he explained why he didn't want to do it, and i guess it is this weird thing.

why have inaction in the month of august? >> i don't think there's inaction. obviously, the president and his adviser, working on the programs, some of which he has discussed over time. some of which is new, and he's going to challenge congress to act instead of acting out when they come back, but it's important for them to go home and get out of that hot house of washington where bipartisanship and dogma rules the day and let them go back, hear from constituents. hear the outrage. you've seen the polls. congress at its lowest point in recorded history, and why? because people see this kind of unyielding, unbending partisanship, unbend iing ideological kind of tea party craziness, and so let them go home and marinate a while in what their neighbors have to say and then come back. i think you'll find a different

mood potentially once they have to face their constituents. >> i'll be a little surprised. simply these days when you go home to have the town hall meetings and you're a member of congress, it ends up being all ideological. either it's the angriest activists on the left and right. >> i don't think it's the town hall meetings. it's the interactions as the groatry stor rgrocery store, th pool. had 14% approve of what congress is doing, you don't have to walk far to see what's going on in washington. people are desperate for action. the president has a program. the president also has a comprehensive approach, a fair balanced approach to how to deal with the debt ceiling, and what we ran into was an unwillingness to compromise, an unwillingness to put party aside for the good of country. i think people are eager to see congress move. >> it's clear i think when you look at the polls. the president won the argument about this idea of the balanced

approach, but it was in the last six weeks that he won the argument. any regrets about not spending six months -- i mean, we knew on election night 2010 that the debt ceiling was going to be used as a tool of sorts by house republicans to have a fight over spending. so why not -- >> chuck i don't think that t the -- i don't think that what we needed was a longer fight. i don't think that's what -- >> the president didn't lay out his plan, really, until late in the game that he really started selling it. >> there were discussions going on from january on, but it wasn't going to be -- until -- until we got somewhat closer to the a vent it was not going to be the public issue and should not have become the public issue it was in a negative way but should have been taken to the brink. last night one of the most stunning things was when all of

those guys were asked, would you accept the resolution to this -- that involved ten to one cuts to revenues, and every single one raised their hands and pledged allegiance to the tea party and said, no, i won't accept that. not one dime from the wealthiest american. not one more dime from corporate tax loopholes. i think that we're going to have a very, very meaningful debate about that. i don't think that's where the country is, and it's not in the interests of our future. >> a quick politics in the state left. iowa, new hampshire, early states but also swing states. here you don't -- the president is going to come here to iowa but doesn't spend a lot of time in both, you're going to have a lot of republican campaigning in both states beating up the president. it's taken a toll in both states. how concerned are you that the early primary states, particularly four of the five are swing states. nevada, iowa, new hampshire,

florida, are going to put the president a little more of a hole. we thought, look, it happened in reverse. look at new hampshire and what it did to his re-election in '04. >> no doubt we'll have to mount a major effort in these states. they're important states. we're going to spend a lot of time there. i'm not sure exactly how it's all going to net out. the more that these guys get together and behave as they did last night and talk about things like mitt romney's suggestion that we have a federal amendment on marriage and so on, instead of talking about constructive ideas to move this economy forward, i don't know that they're helping themselves, and in the long run. they may be helping themgz with a faction of their party to get nominated but not helping themselves with the broader electorate. i don't -- it doesn't bother me that people are getting a good look at these candidates and what they're saying and doing. i think it's going to -- at the end of the day, that contrast is going to come down to our

benefit. >> any chance the president postpones his vacation or stays closer to home? >> his family's going on vacation. he wants to be with them. wherever he is he's going to be working on these issues, and you know, you are a student of all of this, and i understand you're asking about the optics of it, but the substance of it is, you know that he's going to be working on these issues and he's going to be talking to folks and working, and moving on this, but i don't begrudge him wanting to be with his family. >> neither does the entire washington press corps. everybody needs a little bit of an august break. david axelrod, senior strategist for the president. welcome back to iowa. >> great to be in iowa. >> like coming home. >> it is subpoena go to the state fair. fried macaroni and cheese shgz man. >> warned off. >> you look great. be careful. >> exactly. i could fall off the wagon. still ahead, after another wild day on wall street we're going to get a quick check on the opening bell, and how is this struggling economy affecting our children's

education? one of the questions msnbc is confronting in our upcoming "making the grade" special. we'll get a preview. plus -- a love affair. i personally picked out today's fried food of the day. a tough job, but someone had to do it, despite his doctor the warning. my pick and much more coming up on "the daily rundown" live from java joes. specialists, lots of doctors, lots of advice... and my hands were full. i couldn't sort through it all. with unitedhealthcare, it's different. we have access to great specialists, and our pediatrician gets all the information. everyone works as a team. and i only need to talk to one person about her care. we're more than 78,000 people looking out for 70 million americans. that's health in numbers. unitedhealthcare. is best absorbed in small continuous amounts. only one calcium supplement does that in one daily dose. new citracal slow release... continuously releases calcium plus d

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all right. the trading day has begun on wall street. will it be a fifth straight day of 400 points up or down ask right now the market opened up big, up 140 points. 143, been going back and forth. we'll see, again, may be better off going on the roller coasters at the state fair. "making the grade."

msnbc air as special two-hour program on the state of the country education system this sunday at noon. hosting that special and joining me now, nbc news "news nation" tamron hall and jeff johnson. thank you both. tamron, let me start with you. all right. you're going to be in detroit. this was a school system trying to figure out how to shrink. what's the message you're trying to send by being in detroit on this, for this story? >> interesting, cluck, because jeff is right now in new orleans and detroit is considering itself the new new orleans. it didn't take a natural disaster like katrina, but detroit is now focusing in on the schools that are at the lowest, the 5% that represent what's failing about that school system, and now they want to really push teachers, parents and the students to take it to the next level. this is not a charter school program, bought way to say instead of throwing out the kids and the schools away and deeming

them failures, let's look at it and reformulate how we teach. if we can make this a success, other districts around the country might follow. >> jeff johnson, in new orleans. used as an example because of the katrina situation. what is it, though, what is the one lesson in new orleans that you can pass on to other -- and this has to do with city school systems more so than all school systems. >> i think what people are realizing is this is going to take broad effort. school systems have to be supported not just by local government, but they have to be supported by communities, is a are the positived by private industry, and there has to be a real system of accountability in place for those that are charged with leading the school system and there has to it be clear benchmarks and timetables so that school systems aren't just walking around in this purgatory, if you will, of reform that doesn't actually see change in the classroom and in the system.

>> tamron, tell me about the two-hour special itself. what about it do you feel is going to move the ball forward, that folks will learn by watching it? >> interesting, chuck. last night's debate, no child left behind was brought up. i just did an interview late yesterday, we taped it, it's going to be a part of the special with education secretary arne duncan who says no child left behind is a slow moving train wreck and we heard the presidential candidates last night comment on it, and duncan said, listen, it's time to -- >> bipartisan agreement. >> i don't know if they would consider that, also duncan said it's the politics of washington that is injuring and hurting our school systems. we've put together an amazing panel. big names from detroit looking, you pointed out, at reforming the school district there. even director/writer robert townsend, and he's going to talk about what he's experienced as young african-american man who made it through a successful point in hollywood. has is the key here? assembled a cross-section of

people. ben chavez, the list goes on and on and people for charter school, teachers who are going to discuss, you well know, the hard tajik of tenure and what is necessary. it is interesting. the political climate is always interesting. loved last night that no child left behind was talked about. it plays has we're talking about. how do we take it to the next level? we're exploring that on sunday. >> right. exactly. move from talk to action. tamron hall and jeff johnson, thank you both. you guys will are hosting. called "a stronger america: making the grade" this sunday at noon on incomes. tivo it if you think you might. part carnival, part political convention and all sales pitch. today when republican candidates court voters with free food, musical performances and any number of attention-getting stunts. for example, michele bachmann will have a petting zoo in her tent. i'm not kidding. not feeling the whole farm animal deal jl how about

dancing? put your dancing shoes on and head over to dancin' rick santorum's summer dance party. the one-time president's hopeful mike huckabee will be performing there. he's actually performing in a lot of places. by the way, you can not only get your jam on with santorum but you can get actual santorum family jam. yes, as in peanut butter and santorum jam sandwiches. don't worry if you miss huckabee's first performance. you can catch him and his band capital offense in herman king's tent and in the tim pawlenty area. and ron paul prosperity playground. a dump ben bernanke dunk tank, naturally, and inflatable sliding dollar slide. you get the feeling if ron paul could primary bernanke we would? of course, there's food. i told you about the santorum jam. they call it presidential peach preserves. and trucking in from minnesota and herman cain's tent, serving

godfather's pizza. a want to know there's more barbecue there. a little concerned, not enough barbecue. we'll see. if you want the real deal on food you have to go to the iowa state fair, which is what i did yesterday. yesterday we told you about the macaroni and cheese, fried macaroni and cheese. too much pasta got in the way of the cheeses. this is definitely fried cheese. cajun batter. american cheese. on a stick. >> wow. that is really, guys -- thanks. that's had you're wondering, is your producing team producing for you or producing at you? all right. that's enough, because we're in iowa, they're fry just about anything. what is our fried food of the day? --

drum roll, please. how about just butter. just butter. deep fried on a stick. i have a feeling our doctors suggest, stay away from this one. i've not tried it and i don't plan to try it. i know everything's better with butter, including fried batter. we'll be right back with two great guests. their caffeinating up and getting ready. no fried food on them. live here at java joes here in the morning. you're watching "the daily rundown" only on msnbc. ♪ ♪ [ male announcer ] you've reached the age where you don't back down from a challenge. this is the age of knowing how to make things happen. so, why would you let something like erectile dysfunction get in your way? isn't it time you talked to your doctor about viagra? 20 million men already have.

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when raise your hand if you feel so strongly about not raising taxes you'd walk away on the ten to one deal. >> grover norquist says anti-tax pledge, had a good night last night. more on the night's other winners and losers i'm joined by dan walsh, national reporter and

chief at "the washington post" and thank you both for joining us. dan, that moment there, the obama campaign loves it. they feel like that moment in particular made last night's debate a pretty good night for them. do you buy that? >> well, up to a point, but, i mean, in a sense that answer was not surprising, although -- >> not surprising but didn't see authentic. >> well -- but we know where the republican party is right now based on the debate we had over the debt ceiling. i mean, the republican party is in a position now of opposing revenues as part of a deal to deal with that deficit. whether they will eat those words later under whatever circumstances a possible republican president might have to govern we'll know later. but they're in the zone now of trying to win the republican nomination and anybody who didn't raise his or her hand last night would come out of that debate with a problem. >> beth reinhart, we're told by

rick perry's campaign, no plans to watch the debate but he might watch highlights. what do you think he's thinking with highlights? good night for him? >> i do. i don't know that anyone was that intimidating to him, who falls on the sidelines, looks like he won't be there much longer. there's plenty of room for him in the race. >> the pawlenty/bachmann back and forth. bachmann folks feel britpretty in the moment, dan, but other folks feel pawlenty drew some blood? >> you know, he did what he had to do. you know, he feels he's -- >> leave it all on the field. >> he knows he's got it all on the line on saturday. what was interesting, and i credit david chalian from pbs on this, he noted last night after the debate, he said, what was interesting was that she came very prepared to go at him. not just to count wlaer has he to say but make a case against

him. it suggests both of them understand saturday's going to be a very big day for them. >> could it be we're down to a three-person race for all intents and purposes on sunday? that is, bachmann, perry and romney, if pawlenty can't seem to break through? >> don't forget ron paul. i mean -- >> he's there, he's a factor, but is he a nominatable factor? >> no. interesting about ron paul is he's one candidate whom win or lose straw poll, he's the same ron paul the next day. probably not possible as a nominee. >> all right. beth, dan, i got to leave it there. you know who i got coming up next. >> who's that? >> the man himself. >> mr. iowa. >> you can't come to iowa without him. anyway, trivia time, how many winners of the ames straw poll have gone on to win the iowa caucuses, did you know? >> some. >> some is a good answer. people not in my kitchen is another answer. the answer is three.

george w. bush in 1979. bob tole, a tie in 1995 and george w. bush in 1999. pat robertson and mitt romney both won the straw poll but lost the caucuses. when we come back, the expectation ames. iowa legend mr. made-right sandwich himself david, right here at java joes. we're yaching "the daily rundown" on msnbc. my contacts are so annoying. they're itchy, dry and uncomfortable. i can't wait to take 'em out, throw 'em away and never see them again. [ male announcer ] know the feeling? get the contacts you've got to see to believe. acuvue® oasys brand contact lenses with hydraclear® plus technology, keeping your eyes exceptionally comfortable all day long. it feels like it disappeared on my eye. [ male announcer ] discover why it's the brand eye doctors trust most for comfort. if you have astigmatism, there's an acuvue® oasys lens for that too, realigning naturally with every blink. ask your doctor for acuvue® oasys brand. realigning naturally with every blink.

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♪ meet me at the coffee shop well we're back here live at java joe's, our final segment this friday before we move over to ames, glenn gary glenn ross poll, third place isn't the place to be. first place cadillac el dorado, second place set of steak knives and thirst place out of the race.

david yepsen, former long time columnist for "the des moines register" and sherry tullets, political reporter for "roll call." mr. yepsen, about ames, if ron paul wins it, it would undermine the entire straw poll. >> it could. he's not seen by a lot of the people in the political community as a distance runner, so one of the criticisms of the iowa process it's stacked by activists and too many social conservatives, too many people on the fringe. if he were to win it, that would be criticized for that. >> i hear on the ground here particularly from folks that were on the successful grand stand campaigning telling me the poll organization, bachmann has energy and paul has growth. >> paul is organized. last time it was more energy but

whimsical. it wasn't a serious organization. this time it's organized and there's a good time he could come in first tomorrow. >> this never really necessarily propels a candidate the straw poll, it eliminates them. brownback he was the guy trying to do what for instance rick santorum is trying to do or michele bachmann and he finished third, elizabeth dole, dan quayle, eliminated from '99 straw poll. that's what's going on tomorrow. >> it's almost as if the straw poll replaced the caucuses themselves as an event that whittles the field. with the ron paul candidacy it's much more of a legitimate campaign than it was last time, they'll have an impact. i thought of the debate you saw this fault line that's developing inside the republican party about america's role in the world. >> it's an old fault line. >> it's been there since 192. >> let's not pretend.

there's always been an isolationist streak in the republican party. >> absolutely it's flaring up again. one of the things that goes on with the straw poll, a discussion about the message as well as the messenger is going to be in the republican party. >> sheri you've been covering a lot about michele bachmann. how much did she push back last night to some of the paw lelent attacks? >> she was very prepared. if you watched her career she was disciplined last night. her answers were trained, they were rehearsed. she was listening and hired some people to whom she'll license to, like ed rollins, serving her well. >> one of the things you've seen, david, over the years, one party dominating the caucuses here, it actually hurts the out party, hurts the incumbent president running for re-election, their numbers go down. are we seeing that same thing

happen for president obama? >> absolutely. you made a good point earlier in the show, what happens is, this stage it's very competitive. george bush carried the state by less than one vote for precinct. >> al gore the previous. >> it doesn't take much to tip a few electoral votes. it's a small state just like new hampshire. the republicans will come out of this with a better list of precinct,ers, activists, of people who support them. one other thing going on in the state the liberal base is very dispirited, very unhappy, some of the same people -- >> how does it -- >> the shock troops aren't there. obama has to fire up the base if he wants to win in iowa. >> is there one around here? >> a few around town. >> david yepsen, go salucki. shira nice to see you. >> and you.

>> don't miss our prime time results tomorrow, live at ames at the hilton colosseum as the straw poll results come in, that starts at 6:00 p.m. eastern, and i'm going to be joined by andrea mitchell, here at java joe's today at 1:00 and going to be with me tomorrow, she's doing the two-hour shift in front of me, coming up next is "chris jansing and company." stick with us. [ male announcer ] it's simple physics...

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but when she got asthma, all i could do was worry ! specialists, lots of doctors, lots of advice... and my hands were full. i couldn't sort through it all. with unitedhealthcare, it's different. we have access to great specialists, and our pediatrician gets all the information. everyone works as a team. and i only need to talk to one person about her care. we're more than 78,000 people looking out for 70 million americans. that's health in numbers. unitedhealthcare. good morning. i'm chris jansing. we are a day away from the highly anticipated iowa straw poll. the pressure is on. big fireworks among all eight republican candidates in last night's debates especially between the two minnesotans, tim pawlenty and michele bachmann. chuck todd was there. >> i need to respond to that. >> reporter: