perry-scope. let's play "hardball." good evening. i'm chris matthews down in washington. leading off tonight the real winner of last night's debate. yesterday we said the republican debate in ames, iowa was a tussle between those alternatives in the republican party and the tea party crowd. the answer came in one jarring image from the debate. all eight candidates raised their hands when asked whether they would reject, reject a budget plan that offered $10 in

cuts for every $1 in tax increases. all eight. three conclusions there. one, the republican party today is unwilling to compromise under any circumstances. two, they really don't care about the deficit. all they care about is taxes. and three, this is the big one, they're all scared of not looking as right wing as possible. but it was the elephant not in the room who may have been the big winner last night. rick perry. the texas governor stole a lot of the thunder when he said yesterday he's running. he may steal their votes when he makes it official tomorrow. the day of the straw poll. just happens to be the same day. president obama couldn't have been unhappy with what he saw last night, but he still needs to come up with a jobs program himself. a democratic congressman who agrees with me on that joins us tonight. also has war weariness taken over the right. coming home soon may be the one thing both parties now can agree on. let me finish with the two women who just climbed the highest peak in africa.

we start with the republican debate. and for that we go to iowa. chuck todd is nbc's chief political director and our white house chief correspondent. we also have "the new york times" political reporter jeb zoni in des moines. i want you to look at this. during the fox news debate last night moderator brent baird asked all the candidates if they'd turn down a deal that cut $10 in spending for every $1 raised in taxes. take a look at what happened. >> if you raise your hand if you feel so strongly about not raising taxes you'd walk away. >> that's frightening. chuck, that shows -- i said today and i mean it. that was one of those reverend sun myung moon weddings whether everybody gets married at the same time. wait a minute. 10-1, would any member of congress or senator turn down a

deal like that? seems like even jim demint would look twice at that deal. >> i have a feeling two-fold on this issue. number one is, i'm betting that a couple of these candidates will end up backtracking on this. maybe not for four months, but that was an odd moment. it was one of those where i'm thinking did they not hear that it was 10 to 1? did they not hear that was the ratio? clearly you heard david axelrod, president obama's chief campaign strategist, he just gobbled that moment up. saying see, this proves the point that the president was willing to move in the middle and the republican party today is not. but the fact of the matter is the issue of taxes is what unifies this party. there's a lot of disparate coalitions inside this party right now, social conservatives, libertarians, isolationists, you name it.

but the one thing that keeps them together is taxes. i've told you this before. i've had republican pollsters tell me that it would break the republican party apart if they somehow split on taxes. >> let me go to jeb on that same point. i think this was the bicentennial moment yesterday. jeff, to follow on on what chuck said there, they may backtrack on that in three or four months, some of them, but the fact that none of them asked for a clarification. they just kneejerk response. they all put their hands up, afraid not to be with the group. >> no question. but i think that really sort of was a metaphor for the whole debate. they were really focused, most of the candidates on the stage were focused on the here and now, which is the iowa straw poll. they're worried about not being on the same page as michele bachmann perhaps or ron paul, perhaps. but i think chuck's right in the long-term view. i'm not sure that they will have this same point of view. i could see perhaps jon

huntsman, once new hampshire comes along, give a slightly nuanced answer to that. but i think that signified the whole thing. these candidates are afraid to alienate the most activated, energized set of voters in their party. and that is one thing, perhaps one of the only things that's a bright spot or this white house is that they thing that this field of candidates is veering so far right they won't be aubl to correct. but i'm not so sure that's the case. at the end of the day, i think that someone would perhaps have a window into something more pragmatic here. >> let's take a look at u.s. congresswoman michele bachmann saying she is right when she voted to let the government default. remember her vote? she wasn't going to vote on anything to do with the debt ceiling. she would let the thing happen. what she said last night. >> we just heard from standard & poor's, when they dropped our credit rating, what they said is we don't have an ability to

repay our debt. that's what the final word was from them. i was proved right in my position. we should not have raised the debt ceiling and instead we should have cut government spending which was not done, and then we needed to get our spending priorities in order. >> well, the conflict came immediately on that was standard & poor's told political today that the downgrade that happened last week was, because, quote, people in the plit canal arena were even talking about a potential default. that a country even has such voices, albeit a minority, is something notable. this kind of rhetoric is not common among aaa sovereigns. >> that's interesting where there's an alternative universe where bachmann can stand up there with confidence and not admit that her willingness to lead to a default was somehow proven right in her universe. >> i think this is the most

important overlooked part of this debate last night, which is that tim pawlenty, while clumsily sometimes in his attacks on michele bachmann, forced her to say some things and expose some weaknesses with her which will eventually make her unnominatable. the debt issue. this morning on the "today" show she was asked to clarify on this issue of the debt ceiling. she wasn't for raising it under any circumstances. remember, there is a majority of the house republicans and the tea party caucus were okay with raising the debt ceiling if they got their balanced budget amendment. she's not even there. she's in the minority among some of the most conservative parts of the house republican conference. and i think that that puts her in a precarious place that if she's trying to jump to the mainstream inside the republican party. she's trying to prove to the business community in the republican party that she's nominatable, that they can trust

her. those comments on the debt ceiling i think ended any chance she had to make that leap. i think it's a very -- she's put herself in a very tough spot. >> let's watch tim pawlenty here take on michele bachmann and her record last night in that fox news debate. >> it's an undisputable fact that in congress her record of results is nonexistent. >> when it came to health care, i brought tens of thousands of americans to washington to fight the unconstitutional individual mandate. i didn't praise it. when it came to cap and trade, i fought it with everything that was in me including i introduced the light bulb freedom of choice act. >> she's got a record of misstating and making false statemen statements. if that's your view of effective leadership, please stop because you're killing us. >> you said the era of small government was over, that sounds a lot more like barack obama, if you ask me. >> jeff, there you have her again arguing basically that her

words are what matters, not her effectiveness. and governor pawlenty saying it matters if you get anything done. there's her saying yeah, but i came out for the light bulb freedom of choice. it sounds as if that's with confidence that that's a significant thing to say on this planet. >> and i think one thing that voters here in iowa at least have been really paying attention to this for quite a while. it wasn't just last night that they started hearing these distinctions. tim pawlenty, yes, he's been sort of struggling. he has small crowds. he hasn't attracted as much pop as she has, but the republican voter s here who i talked to, some of them are beginning to understand that she's the candidate of the moment. she's probably a summertime candidate. i asked her this afternoon, she had a formal media availability in a town outside of des moines, almost like a presidential press conference. reporters were seated. she called on us by name, which was curious. i asked her what are your real

accomplishments. she went back to minnesota. she talked about her education efforts, she talked about getting a marriage amendment on the ballot. i think when she is pressed on these, she knows that she falls up short. but the question is is there enough time for governor pawlenty? what are voters at the straw poll going to do? perhaps it's an unfair test for him, but he walked into this. tomorrow, like it or not, is important for him. and if he happens to do better than her, then i think she has a tough few months ahead. >> who can make the big headline tomorrow? is there any potential rezounding headline, because it seemses to me if paul wins tomorrow, it doesn't mean anything because he's too libertarian. who can come out of this with some fire power up against the guy who is not in the race tomorrow rick perry? >> tim pawlenty is hoping for the biggest headline, but even if he gets it, that will be a split screen with rick perry. what about mitt romney?

what if he does well tomorrow, his name would be on the ballot. that would draw him back to iowa and make him compete with rick perry. which a lot of his supporters want him to do. they say if he doesn't go toe to toe with him, they're afraid this steamroller might be hard to stop in new hampshire. watch how many people mitt romney gets. there's been a quiet campaign to get some of the supporter into the straw poll and vote for him. i don't think he'll win, but he certainly would make a big headline. >> boy, that's learning from the kerry campaign. kerry went out and met howard dean in iowa rather than waiting for him in new hampshire, beat him there and beat him the rest of the way. same theory, right, jeff? >> exactly. >> you got to beat him in the beginning. >> and romney people are thinking about that. >> chuck, last word. >> you win them both, chris. if romney went in and took iowa, it would be over. >> wow. >> new hampshire, done, this race is finished. but you know, that's the risk/reward of romney playing here for real and doing what he's doing now. >> i love strategic questions.

thanks so much, chuck todd. looks like a nice day out there. thank you jeff for joining us tonight. coming up, the biggest winner wasn't on the stage. he's the most interesting guy right now. rick perry, governor of texas. he's announcing tomorrow. he's teased it all over the place. he could be a nightmare for romney, get in there and beat him in iowa, then challenge him in new hampshire and take him in south carolina and win the whole thing. he could challenge the president, too. he could be it. k, jogging strol. you've been stuck in the garage, while my sneezing and my itchy eyes took refuge from the dust in here and the pollen outside. but with 24-hour zyrtec®, i get prescription strength relief from my worst allergy symptoms. it's the brand allergists recommend most. ♪ lily and i are back on the road again. where we belong. with zyrtec®, i can love the air®.

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back to "hardball," many are saying the real winner of the debate was not even on that stage. texas governor rick perry is getting all the action right now. he's dominated the latest news cycle. his announcement that he's getting in the race is

threatening to overshadow the ames straw vote, which is tomorrow. joining me now the co-author of "bush's brain" and todd harris. speaking of bush's brain, jim, thanks for joining us. what's larger, the brain of karl rove or the brain of rick perry? >> i'd put my money on karl rove, but i think people dismiss rick perry at their peril. this man is possibly the most instinct politician from lbj. he's a horrible governor, make no mistake. but his instincts are good. he ran to the tea party early when a lot of other politicians were being cautious. and that embracing the tea party is what helped him defeat kay bailey hutchison here in texas in spite of the fact that we're pretty much a train wreck down here. >> he looks like a clown in these picture. they could not be very representative. but he dresses very fancy. there's something about the way he puts himself together that doesn't look authentic. he looks like, i don't know, a

wax figure pretending to be a governor. there's something that doesn't quite add up to me. maybe this texas bs and boots and tuxedo thing they do down there. why does it work? outside of texas -- let me put it this way, it doesn't travel very well. but why does it work down there? >> well, i think that he got re-elected simply because the democrats completely messed up. there were three candidates running against him. kinky friedman, carol strayhorn and chris bell, which was a pretty good candidate but the trial lawyers put their money behind the more logical candidate and rick perry got re-elected with only 39%. a straight one on one contest i don't think he would have won. he was unfortunate in that regard. he plays the texas thing up, he plays the mythology up. it has a big appeal in texas. and this whole business with

secession, it does resonate with a public fed up with washington. >> but he's just historically inaccurate. when texas came into the union for the republic of texas into the union, there wasn't any provision which allowed it to secede. the provision was that it could break itself into six separate states and get 12 senators. why did he get something as fundamentally important to texas history wrong? or do you believe he deliberately crafted this secession thing to make him look like a real cowboy? >> well, number one, the public, as you know, doesn't pay close enough attention to these people, as we're starting to parse them as they run for public office. number two is that i don't think rick really understood what the constitution said about breaking into five states. and he knew that the message of secession was going to be wildly embraced by those tea party folks. and guess what happened? he was down by 25 points to kay bailey hutchinson when he went

out there and spoke to those people about recession and a week later the guy is up by ten points and he easily defeats her. >> what a strange world. let's take a look. most of the candidates had nothing but praise for rick perry last night when asked about his decision to enter the race. >> governor perry has a great record of job creation in texas and i think is a very formidable person. >> i think there's room in the race for governor perry, sarah palin. >> welcome to the contest. from my perspective, it doesn't bother us for my campaign. that's just one more politician, and that makes this business problem solver stand out thatch more. >> my hope is that if he does get into this race, he broadens the dialogue about job creation. >> i'm very pleased that he's coming in because he represents the status quo. >> i don't know what to make of that. let's get some straight talk. this guy, is he as good as he looks right now in terms of the fact that he clearly look gs to the right. >> here's the rick perry balance sheet. on the plus side, you've got a

definitiveness, an assuredness that his supporters see as real strength that they think is going to contrast beautifully with what many republicans view as the weakness of president obama. >> you get it. >> he swaggers better than -- >> i was going to say, but detractors say it's swagger. his supporters say that it's strength. on the flip side, you know, as jim was pointing out, perry's record in texas, while it certainly will make for an outstanding 30-second commercial for him, there's also enough in there to make a pretty good 30-second commercial against him, whether it's the trans-texas corridor where the state went to seize about half a million acres of private property, there's issues about whether he raised taxes or not, issues surrounding the state debt. when you're mitt romney or tim pawlenty or any of these other candidates in the field, there will be enough in perry's

records to fire all kind of bullets. but jim is right, he should absolutely not be dismissed. >> jim, what about the good old texas interanywaysen battle down there, the hatred of the bushes for this guy. what's that based on? >> it goes back to the bushes getting behind kay bailey hutchison. that's one of the big reasons. because karl rove ran that campaign. remember, it was karl who made rick perry go to republican. but when he ran for lieutenant governor perry was on the verge of big race and wanted to go negative but karl wanted to run the numbers up so george bush would look presidential and he held rick back from going negative. there's been antipathy on political direction, then it got very bad in the water recently with that primary campaign against kay bailey. the bushes have always been with karl and karl has always been with the bushes. >> why were dogs around the country getting riled up last night by the republican debate.

what a strange event that was. they heard doorbells, these the dogs. i

back to "hardball." now for the side show. first up, there may be no clear answers to who, if anyone, came out on top on last night's gop debate. but some of the most heated reactions to the events may have been sparked by an unlikely group of spectators -- dogs. each time a candidate's time to respond was ended a bell went off. >> if i'm the president of the united states -- [ bell ] >> when others ran, i fought. [ bell." >> sounds a lot like a doorbell. the nation's dogs did, too. twitter exploded at what went

down each time that bell sound. one, every time the bell rings in the republican debate, our dog starts barking. no, lola, mitt romney is not at the front door. the debate moderators rang the bell to stop a runaway answer, andy came bounding out of the kitchen warking his little sh noodle head off. how do you know it was the bell setting him off? it could have been a republican talking. candidate mitt romney turned heads when he pointed out that corporations are people, too. rand paul seemed to reverse the comparison entirely. listen. >> i think we're all corporations. so to say we're going to punish corporations like they're someone else, all of us are corporations. you think about, you do you have a retirement fund, do you have a 401(k), everybody has a 401(k) who owns parts of corporations.

i think a lot of times people want to vilify corporations as other rich people. they're us. >> that's a bit of a stretch when was the last time that we heard someone refer to themselves, we're a corporation. i don't know what they're talking about these days. [ female announcer ] to get a professional cleaning system

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