next on msnbc saturday. show dmoun the hawkeye state. the iowa straw poll. which of these republicans. live reports and analysis straight ahead. >> plus, he is not even running in iowa, but he looms large in the fight for the republican nomination. are americans willing to elect another texas governor for president? also ahead, against his will. an american living in pakistan taken from his home at gunpoint. and back to florida. there's a judge's order that puts casey anthony's life in jeopardy? good morning, everyone. welcome to msnbc saturday. i'm alex witt. it is 9:00 a.m. on the nose. today marks the first major 2012 test for republicans.

just hours from now iowa residents will cast ballots in the ames straw poll, and when the results are in, wheel see whose campaign is on fire, and whose message is falling flat. most of the major candidates are on the ballot, and not all of them are courting the iowa voters. nbc news capitol hill distribute kelly o'donnell is live are for us in ames, iowa with a good saturday morning to you, kelly. today's results will not win the nomination for any one condoleezza riced, but they could mean big problems for people who end up at the bottom of the heap, right? >> this is really a perception game, alex, and when you called it a big test, it's kind of like an olympic book test because these campaigns spend big money to bring supporters to ames to cast their ballots. the actual straw poll is a fundraiser for the republican party here, and each ticket is $30. campaigns typically buy those tickets for their supporters to attend. there's food and entertainment. it's sort of a carnival summer fair atmosphere. to make it an event that people want to attend for kind of a

long day of voting opportunities, and when you say it could be tough for some people, that surely is the case because the perception game, who gets momentum, who can show that they have an energized and organized base of support, and can go forward? that's the real test that comes out of this. whether names are on the ballot or not, how well they do or not, everybody has something to win or lose. >> under the iowa sun and on top of the hottest hay bail in politics. >> iowans are going to send the signal. this is where barack obama got his start. this is where he is going to come to his end. in iowa. >> michelle bachmann making the final push before today's straw poll. pumped up crowds, tailgate rallies, and all the deep fried delicasies that go down easy at the fair. >> the food, definitely. >> we tried the fried butter. >> oh, it was so good. >> republican contenders like

tim pawlenty have poured huge campaign money into getting supporters here. paying for the $30 ticket needed to attend and cast a straw introet vote. a test of any candidate's organization and energy. >> it's going to have a lot to say about who the candidates are who are going to be going forward as president of the united states. >> reporter: those relying on a less expensive grassroots game plan get the same soapbox to make their pitch. >> businessman herman cain. >> i didn't get the memo. >> as far as i'm concerned, i want to be a silt zen this summer helping my country get back to work, helping my country solve his problems. we have plenty of time to run for president later. >> today's results can be make or break. even though the outcome carries no official weight, it is

influential. the undeclared and undecided sarah palin drew cameras and clouds here. palin said expect to hear whether she's in or out by the end of september. >> i want to be very fair to supporters and not keep them hanging on, you know. it's fair to them to give them an answer here in short order so they can jump on board with someone else and/or, you know, decide for themselves what they want to do. >> reporter: not here and not actually competing in the straw poll, mitt romney back in new hampshire was pressed on his much talked about comment that corporations are people. >> it's really astonishing to me that the obama folks would try and argue that businesses aren't people. what do they think they are? little men from mars? it's -- the businesses are comprised of people. and so mitt romney's name does appear on the ballot, but he didn't want it to be there necessarily. it was the republican party here

that saw fit to put his name on the ballot. so romney is not a big presence today. that is also true, of course, of the newest entrance into the campaign for 2012. that's governor rick perry of texas. he is not in iowa today. he is visiting new hampshire and south carolina where he will officially kick off his race. what we do expect in terms of the energy and the enthusiasm, ron paul who has more signs in this auditorium than anyone. i saw one of his volunteers putting signs outside about 5:30 this morning, and, of course, the nearby minnesota resident governor tim pawlenty and congresswoman michelle bachmann. they are expected to do well here today. it's hard to know what the results will look like when the day is over and what it will mean for those campaigns, but everyone will be reading those tea leaves and trying to decide what it says about the race going forward. alex. >> and that includes you, so we'll get more info from you down the road. thank you so. , kelly o'donnell. the iowa straw poll has grown from a fundraiser into a major test of campaign strength. it's only been around since

1979, and it's only held when the incumbent is not a republican, which means there have only ever been five straw polls. in order to cast a ballot in the straw poll, you have to be 18 years old, an iowa resident, and you have to buy a ticket to a fundraising dinner. former minimum men governor tim pawlenty needs a strong showing in iowa to prove his campaign has momentum. he laid out the stakes for a crowd of iowa students yesterday. >> the ames straw poll will have a lot to say about who the candidates are who are going to be going forward as president of the united states. we need you to come by for an hour or less. >> andrew rafferty is in ames, iowa. andrew joins me now on the phone. with a good morning to you, what's the spin from inside the pawlenty campaign? >> the feeling is that at the end of the day they're going to be in a better position than they are reason. this is all about trajectory for

them showing they are on the movement upwards, forging ahead from the bottom of the polls, which is what we've seen. this is really going into the fall. they want to be able to say, look, we're really resonating for voters. they're starting to hear our message. his aggressive campaign schedule is really telling as to how much he feels that just meeting voters and talking to them is really the key to their campaign. >> have you a bird's eye view, do you get that the tenor has changed or is changing from minnesota nice to going on the extreme aggressive? >> of course, that's the debate on thursday. they had to address that. that's a question, of course, the defining moment of the candidacy up to this point was really that debate in new

hampshire. that has been a question that voters have been asking him when he is going around to these town halls throughout iowa. they want to see that he is a strong candidate, that he is somebody who can stand up to whether it's his republican rivals or, you know, as a president some other leaders from around the world. that's a question that a lot of voters had, and that's something that they felt the need to address from the debate, and they're going to be more aggressive going forward. certainly. >> yeah. andrew, real quick. a lot of people suggested it's shaping up to be a battle between the two minnesotans with michelle bachmann there against tim pawlenty. do you get a sense they have trained their eyes mostly on taking her out or is it not necessarily the case? >> have you michelle bachmann who is the congresswoman from minnesota who worked in the

state legislature when pawlenty was governor and who is getting all this attention while they can't seem to rake in the same kind of headlines. yeah, militia bachmann is certainly on their radar very much today. >> okay. andrew rafferty, many thanks from iowa. >> thank you. so just how relevant is the iowa straw poll in the battle for the gop nomination? the answer may lie in the previous five polls. only two winners, bob dole and george bush went to capture the nomination. the beat goz for sarah palin. meanwhile, we invite you to stay with msnbc today for live coverage of the iowa stray poll. we'll have live ames reports throughout the afternoon. then at 4:00 eastern we'll have a special edition of andrea mitchell reports from 6:00 until 8:00. nbc's chuck todd hosts a special edition of the daily rundown with those poll results. president obama is telling voters this morning if they're as frustrated as is he with congress, they should pick up their phone it and they will their representatives to shaep up where. >> if you refuse to settle for

politics where points is more important than settling problems, if you believe it's time to put country before party and the interests of our children before our own, then let them know. maybe they'll get back to washington ready to compromise. cnbc chief washington correspondent john harwood is live at the white house for us. good saturday morning to you, john. >> hey, alex. >> what's the president saying, larger strategy, big picture as he urges people to call their representatives? >> it's a presidential version of the transition where tim pawlenty goes from minnesota nice to more aggressive. we're seeing a transition from obama cool to obama hot and what i mean by that is the president has been negotiating with republicans on capitol hill the president decided try to go over the heads of congress, go out in the country while they're on break, put some heat on them in

their districts by campaigning for his priorities and saying we want you, the american people, to put pressure on congress. the polls have shown that the president has public opinion on his side on some of the key questions in the deficit reduction debate, but he hasn't been able to translate that into legislative success. he is trying a different tack now. >> and the democrats who head to iowa, david axelrod, debbie wasserman-schultz, the president himself this week. the calculation is what behind being there right now on this big gop day? >> the calculation is, one, we want to win the state of iowa. we won it in 2008. we need it. it's a swing state. it's a state the democrats have done well in the last several elections. it's also that at this moment of maximum media and public attention on the state of iowa for the straw poll, they don't want democrats and democratic arguments out of the story, so they want spokesmen there to

challenge mitt romney, to jump on him when he says corporations are people. he has a response to that, but they're trying to engage and weaken him for the long-term. just simply make sure that all of the obama bashing that's been going on in that debate on thursday night and that the straw poll has a reply because we've learned in modern politics that if you don't answer a charge, it tends to be accepted by the public. >> okay. john harwood there at the white house for us. thanks, john. >> you bet. we're following developing news from pakistan this morning where the u.s. embassy has confirmed that an american contractor has been kidnapped. pakistani police say he was taken by gunmen from his house in the city of lahore near the border. good morning to you. the state department is confirming early this morning in the eastern city of lahore, an embassy spokesperson in islamabad tells nbc news the man

is in his of 0s where, it was carried out by as many as ten gunmen. they opened the gates at the upscale home by telling them that they wanted to share some food. it's common during the muslim holy week month of rahm dan. once inside they apparently overpowered the guards and forced a driver to knock on a bedroom door. when the american opened that door, the kidnappers grabbed him, loaded him into a car at gunpoint and sped away. at this point there's been no indication of a motive, and no group has claimed responsibility for the abduction. kidnappings are common in pakistan, though rarely as brazen as this one, and it's even more rare for americans to be the target, though the state department has issued recently a travel advisory for u.s. citizens working or traveling in pakistan. alex. >> that travel advisory came from where, though? was there anything some sort of an uptick, something that said watch out, we have a heightened

advisory? >> there had been a lot more militant attacks. there had been a lot more violence in the area. also, there was a lot of concern over a souring of relations between the u.s. and pakistan and so they wanted to make sure that citizens either working or traveling in the area were very aware of that. >> okay. jake ray in london. many thanks for that. >> thanks. she went to aruba to enjoy a nice vacation. now she is missing and police fear the worst. that's ahead. >> there's a judge's order that may put her life in jeopardy. also ahead, the call for help for britain's prime minister to a former top cop here in the u.s. is that call being answered? you're watching msnbc saturday. completing an atm deposit in record time... that's a step forward. go! go! with deposit friendly atms, you can make ultra fast, secure deposits

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well, robyn gardner is still missing in aruba this morning.

authorities say they believe the maryland woman is in longer alive, but they have many unanswered questions about what's happened to her. nbc's janet shamlyan is in aruba this morning. what's the latest from there? >> reporter: alex, you know, there have been a number of developments i want to tell you about in the last 24 hours. first of all, gary giordano has stopped cooperating with police. initially he was full of information telling them what happened. he is now not talking whatsoever. yesterday at this his home in maryland fbi agents late at night spent about two hours inside. they came out just before midnight with bags and boxes. things that could be potential evidence in this case. meanwhile, another investigation here in aruba found authorities yesterday on an isolated stretch of beach near an abandoned phosphate mine. they came out of that mine with a couple of items of interest that may or may not belong to robyn gardner, a pink t-shirt and a pair of sandals. they haven't said much more than that. there is a hearing in aruba on monday. prosecutors are expected to go

to the judge and ask for eight more days to hold giordano while they hold their investigation. robyn gardener went missing about ten days ago. they were here in aruba snorkelling, reportedly, on an isolated stretch of beach when he says she did not return to shore. it's a story that the police say they doubt. it's a story her family says they doubt. right now they are going through the hotel room here at the marriott where they stayed. they are looking at the rental car. they're looking at this mine, and back in the united states they're looking at items taken from his home. her family is making a plea for her safe return, but i will tell you, alex, that authorities here in aruba do not believe robyn gardner is still alive. >> msnbcing. okay. >> janet, thanks for that sobering news right there. a new poll of president obama's state by state approval rating suggests the re-election map is getting a bit tougher. the national journal examined gallop's poll numbers. the president's approval rating

is below 50% in rhode island, pennsylvania, iowa, north carolina, and florida. now, those states represent 74 electoral votes, and there are all states that the president carried in 2008. i'm joined by former democratic governor of pennsylvania, ed rendell. good morning to you, ed. good to see you. >> state by state as we look at this. i mean, that essential is how elections are won. how tough is the fight going to be in 2012 in these battleground states recited in the poll? >> it's not going to be easy for the president, but, remember, alex, the toughest thing for an incumbent politician to run against is himself. it changes when there's an opponent. it changes when there are debates. it changes when there's a comparison made by the voters side-by-side. if i'm president obama's campaign manager, i am not too alarmed. i'm worried about these polls, but i'm not too alarmed. i think it changes once the race is joined, and it's sort of natural with all of the things that have gone wrong in the country, many of which are not the fault of the president.

it's sort of natural that people are ticked off and they tend to focus their eyre on incumbents. it's far too early this is tougher or easier. i don't think president obama, for example, is going to win pennsylvania by 11 points like four years ago, but i think he has an excellent chance of carrying the state, but not by 11 points. >> well, okay. of course, it is a support right now, according to this poll, in your state there, pennsylvania, less than 50%. why is he losing support there? >> many of which are not the president's fault. all of the conditions have combined to make a very pessimistic electorate, number one. number two, because i don't think the presses has appeared to be a strong leader. i think when you hold an executive office, what people are looking for, even more than what you do on a specific issue, is can you lead? do you have the ability to bring about the needed changes that

people expect? up until for you i think the president has been a little bit too laid bath back, sort of let the congress set the tone, and hasn't forged the type of leadership that people are looking for. if i were the president and i have gin this advice before, i would get out there and tell people what i think we need to do. be specific. be a leader. try to bring people in and say this is my plan. if you don't like it, then explain it to the voters. it's fwood for the country. let's get it done and get it done now. >> okay. but, ed, it's one thing to be able to put out a plan and get specific, but then to have that plan either followed through upon or voted upon in congress with a positive result. does that then get lost on voters so if they don't see the results they need, then his question of leadership can be called into question still? >> i think he has -- i think by doing that, he has two possible alternatives. one he forges the compromise. we do the big deal, and we get

deficit reduction with revenue, with continued spending cuts. we get that for the next decade, and he is a hero because he has led. two, if he doesn't get it, then he can go to the voters next year and say, hey, do you know that 38% of the corporations in america don't pay any taxes? i tried to change that, and they voted no. do you know that warren buff pays a smaller percentage of his taxes than his secretary does. i tried to change that, and they voted no. i think it either does something great for the country and looks like a strong leader, or if it fails, he makes a clear choice for the voters, a clear choice of alternatives. i think it's a no lose situation for him if he tries to lead and if he is specific. >> okay. yeah, go ahead. >> well, i just wanted to say that i'm in a little bit of a hurry because i'm having breakfast with a corporation. >> there's a little sock it to

mitt romney right there. can i ask you real quickly about that. >> sure. >> iowa. there's a little thing going in the straw poll. as you know. as you examine the gop field, who do you see posing the toughest electoral challenge for the president? >> well, i still think the closest thing to a moderate ticket they can put together, and it's getting very hard for them to find anything close to a moderate, but that's the one that will appeal to independent voters next november. i think that will be some combination of, let's say, mitt romney for president and tim pawlenty for vice president. something like that. from our standpoint, we want the most extreme candidates we can get. we want a michelle bachmann, rick perry. i want to be able to play in november that tape of rick perry saying texas should secede from the union. i think that would scare the bejabbers out of people. that's what we want. a ticket like romney and pawlenty is a tough ticket. i'll say this about mitt romney, and is he my friend, and i think he is on balance a good

governor, but boy, is he a terrible campaigner. he is a terrible -- >> why? do you think he is really ticking off a lot of iowans by not having a big presence there today? these are folks who take their politics very seriously right now, and although he says, yeah, i'm going to be there a lot, no shortage of mitt romney leading up to the january or february caucuses, a lot of people are saying, hey, what about us now? >> well, i think, though, it's probably a smart course for him to follow now because with pawlenty and bachmann being hometown heroes with ron paul being very attractive to a lot of minnesota voters, if he participated and didn't do well, it would be sort of a significant momentum crasher. here he can say, well, i just didn't put any time into it, i didn't put any effort into it. the interesting thing is the minnesota straw poll -- the iowa straw poll shouldn't count for anything. you have to pay $30 to buy a ticket. it's ludicrous. of course, we make it important. therefore, it becomes important.

for example, if tim pawlenty doesn't do well and tim pawlenty is a very competent guy, i think his candidacy is finished. he has to finish in the top two or three or else he is in deep trouble. >> well, i want rick perry to join the race if for nothing else scaring the bejabbers out of everybody. >> that shows how old i am. >> good luck with the breakfast with the corporation. >> thanks. >> thanks to lady luck. you'll meet them next on msnbc saturday. [ male announcer ] this is the network. a network of possibilities.

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to help you take care of the ones you love. go to legalzoom.com today and complete your will in minutes. at legalzoom.com we put the law on your side. a huge day in iowa. some of the candidates were campaigning late last night, including minnesota congresswoman michelle bachmann. sdmrool iowa is the state that launched barack obama, and iowa will be the place where that presidency is coming to an end. you get to choose tomorrow, and i couldn't be more excited. >> where do the candidates stand in today's contest. i talked with chief white house correspondent and host of msnbc's "the daily rundown" chuck todd. >> when you talk to iowa republicans, both affiliated with campaigns and unaffiliated,

they will say it's michelle bachmann, tim pawlenty and ron paul. they've poured the most money and resources. pawlenty and bachmann bought tv ads. with an expected turnout to the straw poll and the festival today of 10,000 to 15,000, that means it may only take about 3,500 identified supporters, ticks, et cetera, to win this thing. probably the more people that show up, the better that might be for a michelle bachmann, frens. the fewer, the closer that is to 10,000, the better that might be for aron paul. to answer the second part of your question, you know, because this is the day that rick perry announces, it really puts a premium, i think, on victory, particularly if you are michelle bachmann. you know, she is the quasi-iowa frontrunner if you will. a win today continues that march for her, makes her look formidable and keeps her sort of in the top tier of candidacies, even as on the same day that perry is getting it. if she doesn't win here, here's

the person leading in the polls, but if she doesn't win here, then -- and it's a day perry gets in, she has got a little bit of scrambling to do in order to make sure she doesn't get overtaken or overshadowed, particularly in this conservative bracket, if you will, by rick perry. >> is it enough for tim pawlenty to just finish in the top three, or does he really need this win? >> no. he is running low on resources. he has put everything into this thing. he needs a win probably more than any other candidate participating today. if he can get this win, it would be a booster shot, if you will, prove to maybe some nay sayers in the donor community that, you know what, maybe he does have the chops. he certainly had the iowa organization that, you know, he is sort of the tortuous and the heir here. he has been plot it all together. victory for him together is crucial. anything short of that and i

think he is going to have a hard time being seen as a potential challenger to mitt romney, frontrunner status, and a potential nominee. >> part of my conversation with chuck todd, msnbc's. rick perry is poised steal the spotlight from iowa today, and at 1:00 p.m. eastern we're expecting him to announce he is jumping into the presidential race. he is scheduled travel to new hampshire later today and into iowa tomorrow after the fact. mark halprin is a senior political analyst and time magazine editor at large, and mark joins he me now from ames, iowa. good morning to you. >> good morning. >> so i know you just interviewed governor perry for "time." he says there's not one aspect of running for president that intimidates him. is this a guy ready to make a splash? >> well, look, every first-time candidate struggles in some way or another, but rick perry has a lot of experience in politics. he is a three-time elected governor of texas, and i think if he does well, if he comes in and performs the way his advisors thinks he can, and we

think he has the potential, he will be a major player in a big hurry in this race. >> give me your impression from rick perry from your "time" interview. was he exactly as he expected or different? >> i have met him and interviewed him in the past, so i have gotten used to him. he has to remind a lot of people that don't know him, and he is not particularly well known for a country for a guy that would like to be the republican nominee in the next few months. not particularly well known. his mannerism are going to remind a lot of people are george bush, and there are some people in the republican party who say we don't need noerp southerner now. president bush's legacy is still working its way out. i think people are going to be surprised by that. i was surprised when i met him how he decided -- or he told me he decided run. up until that point he had suggested to people that while he was thinking about a run, he didn't have his mind set. in fact, he told me he had decided 45 days earlier. he wanted to run. the question was could his team put together the logistics to get it done. >> does he have the bush political machine behind him as

some have suggested, which is pretty powerful, or does he have his own thing that he has going on? >> well, he has his own thing. he will have some support from bush world. his chief of staff and governor's office ray sullivan used to work for president bush as well. there's some cross-pollination, but for the most part a lot of the bush people, particularly the fundraisers, look at rick perry as someone from a different texas clan and there's some bad blood. not between the principles. not between president bush and governor perry, but some of their advisors and particularly some of the top advisors where the bush people don't see perry as a strong or plausible nominee or president. he will have some support from texas, people who supported bush and around the country, but this is not -- these are separate political families. not a legacy family. >> do you get a sense that if he jumps into the race you're going to have it being that he will be the conservative front runner with mitt romney being a more moderate frontrunner within the gop? >> if he performs up to expectations many terms of fundraising, in terms of

endorsements, in terms of political support, and in terms of his own performance, i think he will quickly get a lot of support from different groups within the republican party that rick -- that mitt romney has some weaknesses in. tea party activists, religious conservatives, gun owners, veterans. rick perry has a long history of appealing to those groups. he is going to run emphasizing jobs and the texas record on producing jobs in the last two years. that's going to be his main emphasis, but he is going to be, as you suggested, an alternative for a lot of people in the party who don't look at mitt romney favorably for one reason or another. >> do you think he is potentially equally as competitive with the president as mitt romney seems to be at this point? >> well, that is a big debate within the party. there are people supportive of mitt romney, and a lot of people close to president bush who say it's not a close call. that mitt romney would be a much stronger general election candidate. i would say that there's two things that need to beat president obama. he need to make a compelling argument about jobs and the

economy is saying you have a different way to do it better, and you need to be tough and a good political performer because president obama did both of those things. again, i would say if you are a republican and you want to beat the president, those are the two things i think are most important and rick perry is very competitive to on those two scores. >> okay, my friend. mark halprin, good to see you there from ames, iowa. have a good one. sdoo thanks. >> remember to keep it here all day long on msnbc for complete coverage of the iowa straw poll, including the speeches from the candidates, the announcement of the winner of today's vote. it's all ahead today on msnbc. wow, that hurt because you know, he is my friend, too. let's move on to casey anthony who is going to return to florida after a new court ruling. anthony was freed after she was acquitted last month of murdering her daughter. the judge in her trial has ruled that she has to come back to serve one year's probation for an earlier conviction of writing bad checks. criminal defense attorney karen

desoto joins me now. >> good morning, alex. >> given the reason why the judge said she can take off and get out of here. she needs her anonymity to stay safe. are you surprised she's been ordered back to florida? >> no, where well, i'm surprised that he didn't just say, okay, time served and that's it because her -- the defense team actually made a good argument that she received a letter while she was in prison saying she finished her probation. now, we know that that's a little ridiculous gin the fact that how do you do probation in prison. >> good question. >> yes. because you're not allowed to be around -- well, the judge did a 13-page opinion, alex, which is amazing on a probation issue. he said that it would have been a mockery of the system, that she shouldn't take advantage of an error, and that clearly, it was intended that she had to spend a year probation after she was released. who knew she was going to be released? she's got to deal with those terms of probation. when you are on probation, you got take urine tests. you have to go look for a job. you have to show up. it's very intensive. you can't do that in prison. >> are you talking about 13 page rulings.

you know, opinions from a judge on this. the fact that she is coming back, do you think there's any of this that is a result of her being acquitted on murder charges and that she sustained a lot of ill will, shall we say, from a lot of people whether they're behind robes in a court or just out in the public. >> well, this is what i have to say about that. gentlemen, it's case where i anthony. people think she's culpable and she should have to pay somehow. is that in the back of the judge's mind. yeah, most likely. i can also tell you that i've had clients who have moved to florida and had a little probation issue, front of to change their address and wind up in prison for three months. it really depends on who your probation officer is, who the judge is. is she going to get attention because it's casey anthony? absolutely. she's going to have to take urine tests. she's going to have to go look for a job. maybe charlie sheen is looking for a nanny perhaps. >> i don't think so. what about very quickly the serb serving of probation outside of florida? does she have to stay in state? >> that's one of the reasons why she probably does need to come

back. there's a whole formal procedure. it's that very easy dealing with probation. they won't even let you leave to go to rehab to another state. you have to come back and do your paperwork and maybe it will be better if she goes to ohio and isn't under the scrutiny in florida and getting those death threats. >> okay. karen desoto, we'll see you again for more on this. thank you so much. let's turn our attention now back to the iowa straw poll. >>. >> real keeping up the with entor. wooen been out here in iowa more than anybody else. we've been to over 60 counties. we've worked very hard at 110 town hall meetings, and we've been taking it to the people and letting folks get a chance to kick the tires a little bit and we'll find out whether our grassroots strategy works or

whether, you know, the big media strategy is going to pay off here in iowa today. >> look, i know things can always look different from inside a campaign as to what the media will be reporting. tell me what you're feeling about this day, what expectations you have and does that differ with what you have been hearing the media say. >> yeah. well, i think pretty sdis he havely the media has been writing us off from the very beginning, and we have just gotten out and ignored it and just worked hard both here and in new hampshire, south carolina. we spent more time in all those states than anybody else in this race. we've just been working the grassroots. you know, we're going to see. we really haven't had a caucus -- a straw poll strategy. we haven't speblt millions of dollars here like some of the other candidates have. we're running a low budget hard-working campaign. we're focused on the caucus, but we think we'll do well here today. we think we've resonated with iowa voters here. i think we did well two nights ago at the debate. i was at the iowa fair yesterday, state fair yesterday. got lots of people coming up to us saying they liked what they

heard yesterday. it's the first time they've really heard from me. so i think we have a little bit of the mow here. hopefully we can crack the top five. there's a lot of folks up ahead of us in the polls. if we can crack the top five, maybe even fourth that, would be a great finish for us. >> good. that's what your expectation is, top five, forward be good, you would be happy with that? >> yeah. we sure would. hey, we would be happy with one. i would be happier with one, but, yeah, we're feeling good. >> okay. tell me what is the most difficult question or the most difficult concept that people have thrown at you as you get out there? you have been doing the one-on-ones and talking with people. what do you think people are coming at you with? anything repeatedly and how do you answer it? >> yeah, i think the most pressing problem that people feel is the economy and the fiscal situation of our country right now. they're very upset that we don't have any leadership here in this country that's bringing us together. i think that's the real --

there's a frustration. we have a president whose policies aren't working and they have been leadership that's not working to solve those problems. we need to get on the right track, and it doesn't seem like anybody is working to do this. one of the things i brought to the table is really a track record of actually getting bipartisan things done. i thn may sound strange. they say santorum is such a conservative. i was the author of the reform bill that bill clinton signed. we kept working. we didn't say, you know, we're going to cut off negotiations, go in our camps and play politics. we kept working on the solution, and we were able to get in the case of the united states senate, almost the caucus to vote to end a entitlement to welfare, get it back to the states, and guess what happened? welfare roles were cut in half, and poverty levels were as low as they've been in the history of this country. we can make things work. you got to be persistent, and you have to have good strong leaders who are willing to come to the table and make the deeldz necessary to get the big things done. >> clearly something to stand on in terms of your record.

i want to show our viewers the leader -- i mean, the speakers today, and the order many which it's happening. you are up first 1:40 p.m. do you like that position? how is that decided by the way? do you draw strauz, or how does that work? >> i don't know how it was decided, but, you know, it's nice -- for me it's nice being first. you want to talk to people before they vote. so if you are at the end of the line, it's probably less liable that people will be coming in who haven't voted already because the polls close at 4:00. the earlier for me i think that's a great position for us, and again, we're -- we've got a lot of activity here today. we're going to be talking to voters. i'll be out. i think we're the first county here. i was here at a little over -- after 7:00 this morning. already been working tents talking to people just asking for people's help in their support. >> well, former senator rick santorum. best of luck. we'll be carrying that live. thanks for joining us. >> you bet. thank you. the exhibition season has blue cross/blue shield begun in

the nfl. that's crucial to many americans taking part in the $1 billion business. this is all fantasy, the one we're talking about. it's ahead on msnbc saturday. i love that my daughter's part fish. but when she got asthma, all i could do was worry ! specialists, lots of doctors, lots of advice... and my hands were full. i couldn't sort through it all. with unitedhealthcare, it's different. we have access to great specialists, and our pediatrician gets all the information. everyone works as a team. and i only need to talk to one person about her care. we're more than 78,000 people looking out for 70 million americans. that's health in numbers. unitedhealthcare. [ kate ] can't believe i have high blood pressure. what's that thing? another medication. ♪ i really should have taken my shoes off before i got weighed. [ female announcer ] you've got a lot on your mind. that's why every walgreens prescription goes through a 10 point safeguard check

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a change in routine is helping a minnesota couple cash in big time. thomas and kathleen won a $29 million jackpot. he usually buys three tickets at a time. this weekend he decided to buy five. the winner was one of the two extra tickets. >> i pulled in, filled up and bought the ticket. i told the kid at the counter, you don't need to sell anymore. i've got the winning ticket. and i did. >> he did. how did he know. they've been married 38 years a bit earlier in the week before hitting the jackpot? they hit with a financial

adviser to talk about retirement. she's still on the outside in the battle for the white house, but is sarah palin just waiting to join the fray? hey, check it out. she's using the mr. clean magic eraser bath scrubber. i've heard of it, but i haven't seen one up close. what's the word around the sink? that it removes 3 times more soap scum per swipe, and it came from outer space. it is not from outer space! no, man, it's from outer space. they're aliens on an intergalactic cleanliness mission. they're here to clean up the universe. oh, the kitchen scrubbers are aliens, too? yeah, look at that greasy kitchen mess. everybody's in on the cleanspiracy, man. i can't even trust myself. [ male announcer ] mr. clean magic eraser kitchen and bath scrubbers. the clean is out of this world.

it's just a fantasy. but the money it generates is real, and it's in the billions. fantasy football is the subject of the hollywood reporter's cover story which talks about the 27 million americans who participate in the game. i'm joined by paul bond for the hollywood reporter. paul, good morning. >> good morning. >> how do you explain this craze? the players aren't actually playing football. why the intense following? >> well, it's very, very fun. you can manage your own teap. you draft your own team. you compete against your friends. you're usually playing for money, too. so what's not to like? >> yeah, we have a point.

you talked with paul rudd, jason bateman. they're huge fans of this. is fantasy football big in hollywood? >> it's big everywhere. 27 million americans will play this year. a talked to a lot of celebrities who said they're hooked on it. paul rudd says it's a sickness. jerry ferrera from ""enterauge" says he's addicted to it. they're competing for more than just cash. they're competing for bragging rights and trophies and everything else. >> sounds like turtles trying to take the characters from "entourage" to real live. is it not just for men? do you find a lot of women playing this? >> yeah, 27 million americans will play this year and about 5.5 million will be women. that's where a lot of growth is coming from. that's where a lot of nfl tv

ratings growth is coming from as well. women are watching it more than ever, partly because of fantasy football. >> do you get a sense the nfl likes this? is there any indication they encourage the phenomenon? >> yes, they encourage it now. they used to shy away from it because they equate it with gambling. they embraced it fully. go to nfl.com and manage your team. nfl.com viewers, people who go to the website, they'll stay on there three or four times longer, the fantasy players will stay on longer than the non fantasy players. it's a super engaged fan base they have with fantasy players. >> paul bond for the hollywood reporter, thank you for getting up early with us. >> thank you for having me. in a moment we take you back to iowa for a preview of the

straw poll. and look at how important it is to the field of republican hopefuls. what is sarah palin doing in iowa? is she biding her time before she jumps into the race? ♪ [ male announcer ] you've reached the age where you don't back down from a challenge. this is the age of knowing how to make things happen. so, why would you let something like erectile dysfunction get in your way? isn't it time you talked to your doctor about viagra? 20 million men already have. with every age comes responsibility. ask your doctor if your heart is healthy enough for sex. do not take viagra if you take nitrates for chest pain, as it may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. side effects may include headache, flushing, upset stomach, and abnormal vision. to avoid long-term injury, seek immediate medical help for an erection lasting more than four hours. stop taking viagra and call your doctor right away if you experience a sudden decrease or loss in vision or hearing. this is the age of taking action.

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