>> the first big test of 2012. gop presidential contenders scramble to take the top prize in iowa. the key question, who will survive past the weekend to fight another day? party crashers. rick perry and sarah palin stirring a lot of buzz. what impact will they have on the race forward. and the saga continues. a new twist for casey anthony. good morning. i'm alex witt. welcome to msnbc saturday. it's the first big test of the 2012 presidential campaign. the drama is playing out in iowa with the ames straw poll just hours away. it's a make or day for some republican presidential hopefuls who take their political futures on the vote.

it's considered vital for tim pawlenty and michele bachmann who both spent last night in full campaign mode. >> we need to make that promise and send a message to washington, d.c. so loud that barack obama can't possibly miss the sound that we leave tomorrow in ames, iowa. that we are taking our country bac back. >> it's going to have a lot to say about what the candidates are going forward as president of the united states. we need you to come by even for an hour or less. >> well former massachusetts governor mitt romney won the straw poll four years ago but is not actively competing this time around. the romney campaign says he's worth between $190 and $250 million. he spent last night in new hampshire talking to voters there. >> i respect deeply the ames straw poll process. and if i were participating, i

would be there. i don't want to draw a distinction relative to the other political folks. they're participating in the straw poll. and governor rick perry is threatening to overshadow today's straw poll by entering the republican race officially. last night he spoke to officials in alabama about the need to send more conservatives to washington. if we don't get the federal government under control. if we don't get the debt issue addressed, we break the choke hold that washington has on the private sector. the consequences are going to be unthinkable. for more on what to expect from the straw poll, i'm joined live from ames one again by mark murray. another morning to you, mark. who do you think are the top three? and does that match up with the overall primary runners. >> three candidates -- former

minnesota governor tim pawlenty, current governor michele bachmann and ron paul. they're airing tv ads in the buildup to the ames straw poll. they hired buses to take people to and from the straw poll in ames. they've done things like having air-conditioned tents to entice supporters. things like having dairy queen blizzards in an effort to boost up vote totals that we'll find out later this afternoon. >> mark, i'm sure you were listening as i had former pennsylvania senator rick santorum on the air with me. he said he would love to be in the top three, but he's cool with the top five if he makes fourth, that's good for him. do you see that as being viable? >> well, alex, everyone is trying to play the expectations game. some aren't that reliable on what to do. i will tell you the people who finished in third place in 2007, that was then kansas senator sam brownback, he dropped out of the

race just two months after the straw poll. ditto what happened in 1999. elizabeth doll finished third in the ames straw poll. she later dropped out as well. a third place finish doesn't get you far. people are looking for a first place finish, maybe a good second place. third place is never good. when you're talking about someone finishing fourth or fifth, at least in historical standards, that's not good news. >> the campaigns all seem to driveway on the economic issues out there. do they differentiate themselves with a focus on social issues? is that how you can tell them really apart? >> well, we have seen social issues play a very big role. iowa republicans are very conservative socially. however, the debate on thursday night there was a lot of back and forth between michele bachmann and tim pawlenty over ideology and also expeerienceex. tim pawlenty is hitting michele

bachmann as somebody who is not able to deliver. michele bachmann turned to ideology saying someone like tim pawlenty hasn't been a reliable conservative always. she has. that's where we see between those two candidates. ron paul is a libertarian. he doesn't believe the federal government should have any type of role, other than what's laid out in the constitution. he has his group of supporters. we saw the republicans go after hip on foreign policy at the debate on thursday. that seems to be where the clashes are happening now. >> and texas governor rick perry, the factor today, in his announcing his candidacy if the presidency does that keep any people from going out to vote? >> well, it's a savvy move by the texas governor. it allows him to have a little bit of a headline on a day that was being dominated in ames. it's almost now a split screen day where you see some republicans here in ames for the ames straw poll. but then texas governor rick perry will be in south carolina an new hampshire.

we are seeing a couple different things happening. rick perry's decision to announce that he's running for from south carolina while everyone else is in ames allows him to get in the story. the question for rick perry is what does he do after today? does he hit the ground running? or does he -- do the people who emerge from ames end up stealing the spotlight? we'll see on that. >> thanks, alex. >> sarah palin still in the hawkeye state. the former alaska governor arrived friday at the iowa state fair and was immediately surrounded by well wishers and autograph seeker ls. >> in the heart land talking to the good folks of iowa. these folk who is are feeding the rest of the country and working so hard and instilling work ethic in our kids. governor perry and all the rest, they need to be here. >> are you a potential candidate? >> still a potential. still thinking about it. >> joining me now, msnbc news

campaign alex moe live on the phone for us. good morning to you, alex. what is the reaction to palin's bus stop in ames, iowa? >> good morning to you, alex. just as you had mentioned the there was a ton of people who came out to see her. they wanted pictures, autographs, just to meet her. a lot of supporters were yelling run, sarah, run. they wanted to meet with her and talk about issues they have in iowa. she told me she was still a potential candidate. still thinking about running. we are still in iowa. i'm not sure what the day holds for us. but a lot of people when i was in ames were very supportive and very glad to see her. >> yeah, anything behind the sound bite that we played where you have her singling out texas governor rick perry. she said, he should be here. it's the place to be. he should be here in ames today. do you get a sense that that would be with whom she would be

very much competitive were she to jump in the race? >> that's a good question. rick perry is visiting the state tomorrow. the day after the ames straw poll, which will still get a lot of play. a lot of iowans will see he's recognizing the state. but really not sure how sarah palin is going to feel about rick perry and, you know, if she's going to support him or how that's going to play out. i think we're going to have to wait and see if sarah palin herself gets into the race. >> very good point there. what do you know about her plans for day? >> very up in the air. her campaign is very, very secretive in terms of the media. we are still in iowa city at the hotel. so we could be staying in the state making some stops. we could be going to another state. we don't know. >> that makes it hard to plan. we thank you for your flexibility and joining us on the phone here. >> thanks, alex. >> we invite you to stay with

msnbc today for live reports of the straw poll. then at 4:00 eastern we'll have a special edition of andrea mitchell reports. from 6:00 to 8:00 right after andrea, chuck todd hosts a special edition of the daily rundown. he'll have the poll results for us. this morning president obama is telling voters fed up with congress to do something about it. he said they should call their representatives while they're home on summer break and warn them when they go back to washington they need to do a better job of getting along. >> you've got a right to be frustrated. i know i am. you deserve better. and i don't think it's too much for you to expect that the people you send to this town start delivering for you. >> the president says he's announcing new proposals over the next few weeks to help businesses hire more workers and create new jobs. the stock market seems to be stabilizing somewhat after a roller coaster week following the usz credit downgrade by standard and poors. the s&p 500 and nasdaq both saw

modest gains. a much calmer end to a five-day period that included two of the top ten single day market drops in history. both followed by jumps of more than 400 points. cnbc's mandy drury joined me earlier with a look at this volatility. >> we're seeing a market that is really struggling to find direction. there are so many unanswered questions out there. questions like what did the downgrade mean for the united states? what is the fed doing to try to stimlit the economy? is the economy backsliding into a recession. what is europe doing about debt problems? while ufr unanswered questions, it's a lot ov uncertainty. uncertainty seems to create fear. >> cnbc's mandy drury dl. in florida, casey anthony is ordered to return to the state to serve one year probation. she was acquitted of killing her daughter. the probation is for a

conviction in a separate case. kerry sanders is in orlando, florida, with the very latest on this. good morning, kerry. i bet this has been grabbing the headlines lately. >> certainly has. casey anthony is orlderred out of hiding to the florida department of corrections to meet with her probation officer. six months before -- 16 months before the murder trial, she was in court and was sentenced to a one-year probation for passing bad checks. >> when casey anthony walked free four weeks ago, she and her legal team believed she was a free woman. but she writes, it's clear. the defendant's probation was to start once she was released. the idea she had served her probation while in jail awaiting the murder trial was a clerical error and to let casey avoid her probation would make a mockery of justice.

this is the not the message the courts want to send to the public or defendants. the error letting casey anthony's one-year probation be counted while she sat in jail may have gone unnoticed but for orlando attorney richard hornsby who blogged there was a mistake. >> i would like to sincerely apologize to amy. >> she pled guilty to stealing her best friend's checkbook and using that friend's money on a spending spree at target and win dixie. she will have to reveal her income and who is paying her, and if she violates her probation, she could wind up back in jail. >> i think orlando is tired of dealing with this. everybody i talk to wants to go back to life as normal and not continue talking about this. >> while the judge ordered casey anthony to return to florida by august 26 thd, where and when that happens will likely remain a secret. >> florida has probation offices in every county.

and so depending upon where she is, she could report to another area area of florida. >> keeping her movements in florida are a top security concern, despite being acquitted of murdering her 2-year-old daughter caylee, the judge writes in his order, it is report that had the defendant is the nation's most hated person. judge belvin perry cites a survey that says in the total dislike category of the survey, anthony easily topped the charts at 94%. 12k3w4r th >> they hate her. they really hate her. i don't think it's safe. she should go far away and stay out of florida. >> we tried to reach casey anthony's defense team. they did not respond to our calls. meantime, casey's parents george and cindy have issued a statement saying if their daughter returns to orlando to serve her one-year probation, she will not be living with them. alex? >> kerry, i just want to ask very quickly, she does not

necessarily as a result of this have to stay in florida for a year, correct? she can go elsewhere? >> that is correct. she could go to another state and they have a technical term of an interstate compact for this. it means she would then report to a probation officer. the laws of that state apply. so while the public records are very prominent in florida, there are other states where that sort of information would be perhaps less public and perhaps more private and as a result nobody would really know much about what she was doing. so, i wouldn't be surprised if her legal team is scouring the state records of many different states to figure out where is the best place for her to go just to stay out of public view. >> okay. nbc's kerry sanders, thanks, kerry. depression in command. a doctor who says in times of crisis those who are mentally ill become the greatest leaders.

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gives you more ways to earn points. what's your story? citi can help you write it. iowa is the state that launched barack obama, and iowa will be the place where that presidency is coming to an end. you get to choose tomorrow, and i helicopter be more excited. >> michele bachmann stumping in iowa. she's among the expected front-runners in the first big

test for the 2012 race. i'm joined by karen finney, former communications director for the dnc and robert train who is in ames for us. good morning to the two of you. >> good morning. >> good morning. >> i'm going to reach out the furthest here to you, robert, first. which of these candidates is generating the most energy right now? is there one who stands out among the candidates? >> ron paul. there's no question. whether it's at the state -- yeah, believe it or not. at the state fair, at the coffee shop, driving from ames to des moines this morning. you see ron paul placards all over the place. everyone consistently says ron paul appears to be the front-runner here. the feeling and momentum is this is very much his race to lose. >> do you believe if it's ron paul, michele bachmann, tim pawlenty. the three names discussed. do you think he's able to go on

and try the general support from the gop tout there? to play bigger? down the road? or do you think this is a one-shot deal for him? >> mike huckabee ran the iowa straw poll three years ago, and obviously he did not wind up to become the republican nominee. ron paul will probably win tonight. he probably won't get further than that. at the end of the day, this is still a race between michele bachmann, tim pawlenty and rick perry, if in fact he does announce today, which he's expected to do. it appears to be ron paul's evening tonight. >> let's keep our focus with you michelle on michele bachmann and tim pawlenty. is this what democrats want to see? >> you know, i think democrats are more focused right now on president obama and what he's

going to do and getting their own house in order and getting our own organizing going. certainly the other piece of this is keeping an eye on what's going on with the republican side and seeing how people are doing. the more to some degree -- unless you're a republican or a a democrat in an open field. the bloodier the primary, the better for us. that means, that sort of battle weary nominee who comes through there is going to have to shift gears very quickly and get into general election mode where president obama has had all the time to basically get his campaign in place. and in motion. sure, if they want to go ahead and tussle, we say go for it. >> robert, how do you think rick perry jumping into the mix affects the strategy of the other candidates? is there a buzz about them there yet? >> yes, there's no question about it. he's the elephant in the room.

if he announced this afternoon he instantly becomes the front-runner. both from a political standpoint but perhaps a financial standpoint. we had the opportunity to catch up with mitt romney a couple days ago and ask the question, if in fact when perry jumps into the race, how do you feel about this? you can tell he appears to be about it. i think politically he automatically becomes the front-runner. he will give mitt romney a run for his money. not only in iowa, but in south carolina and new hampshire as well. >> he's the elephant in the room as opposed to the donkey in the room. sthafs pretty good. i was giving you credit there. does it help or hurt the dems with rick perry in the mix? >> it's hard to say. there's a couple of things. the results from today hard to say how much of an impact that's really going to have on the race given the rick perry factor. let's not forget sarah palin.

i'm one of the people who doesn't believe she's going to run. she certainly likes the attention. that keeps the republican field fluid. with rick perry, the longer you sort of play the footsy cutesy game of maybe i'm going to get in, maybe i'm not going to get in, expectations are very high. he has to come in and do very well despite the fact that there's a write-in campaign. he can say we're anticipating. still tlrks are expectations that have been raised but we'll have to see how he does. he could certainly go out strong and then peter out within months. >> okay. well, i know no coffee break together given your locations. but i'm sure you guys will discuss. we'll see you in an hour. thank you so much. >> take care. in just a few minutes, we'll hear from former rnc chairman michael steele about what he expects to happen in iowa. our live interview is coming our way at the bottom of the hour

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possible toxic plot by al qaeda's affiliate in yemen. a report says counter terrorism officials are concerned al qaeda may be trying to produce the deadly poison ricin so it can used to attack the u.s. we're getting more now on the major political battle unfolding this hour in iowa. the gop presidential hopefuli f are looking to gain momentum. how will the voting work today? we are live in ames, iowa to explain auin all the nuts and b here. when does the voting begin? >> as soon as the doors open here, people can start voting. around 11:00 or noon your time they can start voting. probably around 6:00 is when

we're. >> you can see why former pennsylvania governor rick santorum said to me it's good to be going first. you get your message out and give the people a chance to go out afterwards if you like what they hear and vote for you. we show the speaking schedule today. perhaps those at the front have a bit of an advantage. who gets to vote in today's poll? >> for the first time this year the iowa republican party has a registration function to this. so anybody who is an iowa resident can vote, but you have to show voter i.d. you come here, and you can then register to vote if you're not registered. and you don't have to be a republican, though, to do so. so a democrat, independent can come here and vote. for the first time, like i said, our republican party is going to be signing up people to actually register to vote. and that's a really interesting and important thing to do organizationally. especially when you consider a

general election and how the obama people would hand out cards to register all the people to have an advantage to then have an e-mail list and bring the people in to get them to this the polls and get out the vote efforts in the fall of 2012. so some organizational stuff going on here, and the first time the iowa republican party is doing that. >> so, as you were saying, we should expect, say on chuck todd's special edition of "daily rundown" starting at 6:00 tonight, at that point we'll get the results and between 6:00 and 8:00 we should have the thing all wrapped up? >> we're probably find that out. 5:00 your time is when the voting ends, so between 5:00 and 6:00, they'll have them tabulated. probably around 6:00 is what we're hearing that we can expect to hear who has won the straw poll here. >> okay. thank you for the heads up on all the details from ames, iowa. we appreciate that. >> thanks, alex. a bit earlier i spoke with

gop candidate and former pennsylvania senator rick santorum and i asked how he expects to do in today's poll. >> we think we'll do well here today. we think that, you know, we've resonated with iowa voters here. we did well two nights ago at the debate. i was at the iowa state fair yesterday, and got lots of people coming up to us saying they liked what they heard. it's the first time they really have heard from me. hopefully we can crack the top five. there's a lot of folks up ahead of nus the polls. if we can crack the top five, maybe four, that would be a great finish for us. >> so that's what your expectations are? >> we would be happy with one. f we would be happier with one. but, yeah, we're feeling good. >> and as i mentioned, rick santorum is the first speaker on the agenda in iowa. that's at 1:40 p.m. eastern. he'll be followed by ron paul and then the two minnesotans.

congresswoman michele bachmann and tem pawlenty. then finally. at 4:15 p.m. eastern. we'll see herman cain. a lot of riding on the straw poll. joining me is michael steele. we were having a good conversation yesterday morning early in wakeup. good morning. it's nice to see you. >> if ron paul wins this thing, as some are suggesting he may do, do you see any level of -- >> his nominations are slim? >> i don't think so. that they've got there in iowa. what it does say is as we've seen in recent history, the winner of the straw poll may or may not necessarily be the nominee of the party. the straw poll is, as har s already been indicated.

that's one advantage tim pawlenty has. it's all about getting your vote to that poll today, and getting that vote counted. the other dynamic that's going to be interesting here, as you just reported was, you know, this is open up to everybody. democrats, independents -- not just republicans. so there's a lot of interplay here of interests, if you will, of the citizens in iowa. as long as you're a citizen of iowa and you come to this poll, you can vote. and that's going to have a very interesting impact, i think beyond the organizational structure that the state party in the campaigns put in place. you know, third wheel there, that you don't know how it's going to roll. >> but michael, doesn't that concern you. and is there any studies? any analysis that shows democrats go out there and vote for the wildest and whackiest

campaign. >> sure. that's a risk that they've opened up the process to any registered voter in iowa. yeah, that's a potential risk. i don't see -- i've not heard any organizational effort by the dnc or the democratic party of iowa to do something like that. it's just a factor. but what are we talking about here? we're talking about a caucus in january. having a straw poll in august. at the end of the day, there's a whole lot of political landscape to be covered between now and january and february. you've got perry coming into this thing this afternoon. which kind of takes a little bit of the edge off it, trumps a little bit of the play of the candidates like michele bachmann and tim pawlenty. if i were a candidate, i would not get out of the race after the straw poll today. i don't care what i placed. there's a lot of dynamics here. rick santorum and herman cain have as much juice going on after this as they do going into it. >> what is your -- i guess what

is the bar? where do you set it in terms of at some point someone has to drop out. when does that happen? >> it's the money bar. it's always the money bar. that's what it is at the end of the day. how my money comes in allows me to go that much further. so for cain and santorum, if they've got a good network of donors who believe in them and will continue to support them, they can go a little bit farther in this. maybe some will hang up their tent after this. i think it's premature. because you still have sarah palin who could get into this race. you still have other variables out there. money will be the driver. politically after this there's no reason to get out, in my view. >> you bring up sarah palin. the fact we're talking about her and also texas governor rick perry, the fact they generate so much buzz, does that indicate to you, michael, there's no viable front-runner in the group at this point? >> no, it doesn't. i really believe that romney is the front-runner. he's been a strong front-runner. on his performance on thursday

night was i think exemplary. he did a good job in casting himself as a presidential candidate who could go toe to toe with barack obama. we'll see. perry gets in this, yeah, it changes things a bit. the idea of running for president and actually running with seven or eight other candidates to the right and left to challenge you is a very different proposition. we'll see how perry fairs with that. palin may still get into this thing. there's a lot of road ahead of us here. >> regarding mitt romney, how comfortable are you or might the romney campaign be with the disclosure the man is worth more than $200 million in these lean economic times? do you worry at all that's going to alienate people from saying this guy can't relate to me? >> i don't worry about that. we have to get out of this notion of beating people up because they've been successful in this country. this country is built on the

proposition everyone can obtain the success of a mitt romney or an oprah winfrey. let's not begrudge this. let's have them help us and teach us how all of us can be successful. a message from a mitt romney who has built companies, who deals with downsizing a company, who employs people. that will be an important voice for america to listen to and this process helps us get to that point, i believe. >> okay. i can absolutely see what you were the former rnc chair. michael steele, good to talk with you. thank you so much. >> take care. >> we invite you to stay with msnbc for the live coverage of the iowa straw poll. we'll have live reports from ames throughout the afternoon. at 4:00 eastern we have a special edition of "andrea mitchell reports." then chuck todd hosting a special edition of "the daily rundown." next up, the doctor who says mental i'llness may ne all of your missed opportunities in one place. ♪

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we head to ames, iowa, for an inside look at michele bachmann's campaign as the minnesota republican looks to unseat president obama. bachmann is making bold comments. >> iowa is the state that launched barack obama, and iowa will be the place where that presidency is coming to an end. you get to choose tomorrow, and i couldn't be more excited. >> msnbc news campaign is covering the bachmann campaign from ames. good morning to you. >> good morning, alex. are the voters in ames all fired up? >> they are, alex. there's no question that michele bachmann has a talent at connecting with people.

all you need to do is see how long she holds the hand of a person she's speaking with. the entire discussion. voters here are pretty careful and committed political consumers i guess you could say. though they recognize that she has the talent for impressing people and for attaching to people. they haven't made up their minds yet. some people i spoke to at rallies as late as last night told me they haven't immediate up their minds. >> has she put out there how well hay expect to do? how much weight they attribute to the results here? how do you see this as weighing in on her campaign overall? >> the campaign said they recognize that the straw poll is an important gauge. bachman also said she's at a disadvantage. she said in a reference to taim pawlenty that she got in later

than other candidates who have been in iowa for more than a year. voters in iowa recognize that i'm authentic, and that goes a long way. >> yeah. you mentioned tim pawlenty. the do you think she has her sights trained on tim pawlenty? he's the one she wants to get knocked out of the race the most? >> it surprised me thursday night during the debate. you know, it's difficult to tell whether she wants to get him out of the way now or whether that spat that happened at the debate just happened during the course of events or happened because pawlenty himself planned it. >> jamie, thank you. >> thanks, alex. >> we invite you to stay with msnbc today. we have live coverage of the iowa straw poll. we'll have live reports

throughout the afternoon into this evening. in history classes we are taught that abraham lincoln, winston churchill, martin luther king, we're taught they were great world leaders. all four dealt with some form of depression, at least that is what a new study claims. it goes further saying their depression helped these men lead in times of crisis. good morning, doctor. thank you for being here. >> thanks for having me on. >> how did you come to this conclusion? >>. >> well, i looked into the backside of leaders well known in times of crisis. i did research on mania and depression thea shows realism and empathy. i found the traits were present in the great crisis leaders and

often absent in mentally healthy leaders not so successful during cries c crisis. >> were there logs? they were able to take anti-depressants and things like that? how are you certain they suffered from depression? >> all medical diagnosis is probablistic. it's not absolute. in psychiatry i use the standards methods from clinical care. symptoms, genetic history and whether someone was treated. in most of the cases there's the symptoms themselves, the periods of severe depression. there's symptoms happening over time. episodes of depression, for instance, king made suicide attempts in adolescence. he had at least two other periods later in his life. there's treatment in some cases. churchill was treating with

amphetamines. it doesn't prove it. but that's essentially how we do it when we practice psychiatry. >> and how this all translates to excellent leadership. you say we should not seek leader who is are like us. our leaders should be different from the norm and possess the qualities that come naturally to those persons with mental illnesses. can you explain why you feel that way? >> well, the studies done on the traits showmanic patients are more creative and resilient than normal subjects. people with some depression have more empathy than normal subjects. i'm not talking about the most severe mania or depression, i'm talking more moderate symptoms. if that's the case, if these studies are right and compared to normal people, these people have more of these traits, and

then if this applies to the average person it should apply to any leader as well. >> so basically you're saying somebody who maybe is a glass half empty kind of guy might be able to look at a situation, not be surprised by it. a leader. and then try to turn that around. they're more adaptable to the situation than those who approach life with glass half full in. >> well, they're moralistic for better or for worse. and when times are difficult, that's very helpful. the flip side of my contention is not all leaders should have symptoms like manic depression. during prosperity, the mildly optimistic morning in america kind of approach gets people excited and has positive benefits. it just doesn't work if you're being unrealistic and facing major crises like churnl hill in the 1930s. it's a very interesting approach. thanks for joining us.

>> thank you for having me. a new search for a maryland woman who vanished in aruba. we have the latest on the case next. r ♪ ♪ anything cause you mean everything to me ♪ ♪ i'd know that i'd go anywhere ♪ ♪ for your smile ♪ anywhere ♪ yes i'd do anything ♪ anything for you ♪ fiber one. uh, forgot jack's cereal. [ jack ] what's for breakfast? um... try the number one!

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police have arrested two people after they threaten to blow up hotels and casinos on the las vegas strip. one is an 18-year-old man. the other a juvenile. investigators say the pair called several hotels and casinos threatening to detonate bombs if they weren't paid large amounts of money. both faced attempted extortion. and one lucky minnesota couple hit the jack pot, literally. thomas and kathleen morris won the powerball lottery. the couple who usually buy three tickets decided to go for five. it clearly paid off. the only question is if they want $123 million in cash now or go with the full payment over 30 years.

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