the ames straw poll. it's going to have a lot to say about who the candidates are going forward as candidates for president of the united states. >> we have live reports and analysis straight ahead. also coming up, a brazen kidnapping. an american in pakistan taken from his home at gunpoint. his fate unknown. new developments in the search for an american woman missing in aruba. good morning, everyone. welcome to msnbc saturday. i'm alex witt. it's 8:00 a.m. out west. voting is now officially open at the iowa straw poll.

it's a make or break day for the field of republican presidential hopefuls. the stakes could not be higher for michele bachmann and tim pawlenty. those two were busy working the crowds last night. >> we need to make that promise and send a message to washington, d.c. so loud that barack obama can't possibly miss the sound that we leave tomorrow in ames, iowa. that we are taking our country back. >> voting is from 10:00 to 4:00. swing by any time of the day. we would love to have you. it will make a big difference tor the outcome of the thing tomorrow. mark murray, joining me live from ames. good morning to you. >> good morning, alex. >> do you get a buzz or amoan men tum coalescing around one particular candidate? >> michele bachmann has had the

buzz. she's had the buzz since she got in the race in the middle of june. the question is whether she has the organization to back up that buzz. the that's what we'll find out in the straw poll results later this afternoon or early this evening. tim pawlenty has been in the race for a while. he's been running for president since 2009. the question for him is whether he has what michele bachmann has right now. that's the buzz, the excitement. there's already a lot of electricity outside. there are tents that almost look like it's a football tailgate party. different tents, music stages, food. it's a lot of fun already outside. there's just an overall buzz to the event, which is really kicking off the 2012 season. >> all right. i get the message. we'll keep you for like two more minutes and you can go out there, mark. >> all right. sounds good. >> the big upset by one of the lesser known candidates seems unlikely at this point. what kind of impact have other candidates there in iowa had on

the overall nature of the election and on the front-runners themselves? >> they've had an impact on the issues. you see someone like rick santorum. he's not going to be in the top three in the ames straw poll, but he's had a focus on social conservative issues, talking about his opposition to gay marriage. talking about abortion. that's had a natural effect of making sure the issues are discussed. you you have somebody like herman cain competing. when you have herman cain, rick santorum, tim pawlenty. those are the five that we're talking about at the ames straw poll. he was the winner here four years ago. >> let's talk about the minnesota nice. this past week michele bachmann and tim pawlenty put that into question. do you think pawlenty has a big enough shot that makes the rivalry a difference right now? i mean, the two of them are really the two battling it out

for the first and second spots. >> what's interesting in what makes this a rivalry, they are very different people. they have different messages. tim pawlenty is campaigning on his experience as a governor. he has the executive experience. he has results. michele bachmann is talking about ideology, that she's always been a true blue conservative. >> a fighter is what she describes herself. and consider this. they're both from minnesota. this presidential field really doesn't have enough room for two minnesotans. and in a way we're going to end up seeing which of these republicans have ha little more juice here at the ames straw poll, is it michele bachmann or tim pawlenty? it's really a fascinating story to watch. >> thank you very much, mark murray. good to talk with you as. the iowa straw poll has a fund-raiser in a major test of campaign strength. it's only been around since 1979. it's only held when sh they're not a republican. which means there's only been

five straw polls. you have to be 1 years old. you have to be an iowa resident. you have to buy a ticket to a fund raising dinner. you may have noticed a major theme is food. lots of it and mostly fried. today it seems some gop candidates are trying to get the votes the old fashioned way. through lots of entertainment and food. mike allen gave me a preview this morning. >> already the candidates are setting up villages here. they call them tents, but they're really pavilions. ron paul has a city over there with a separate food tent, a press tent, a ticket registration tent. they have a separate play land for kids. a separate place for hot dogs. he's giving out pocket constitutions, declarations of independence. he's made himself a founding father. he's written the introduction. across the way in tim pawlenty

land, it already smells good. famous dave's barbecue has 40 racks going. he's going to have a christian band. the michele bachmann bus will have three country bands and she also is going to have food and goodies for all her people. she's doing a fair food theme complete with funnel cakes. >> that's a little bit of heartburn right there. texas governor rick perry is looking to take the momentum out of the iowa central poll this afternoon. he's expected to formally announce his candidacy for president. last night he spoke to voters in alabama. >> what we're doing is we're experiencing now what happens when a country founded on the tenants of individual liberties is governed with no regard for the freedom. >> joining me on the phone from south carolina, kerry dana.

when can we expect to hear from the governor today? and what exactly is he going to say? >> supporters are using the phrase full throttle conservative. he wants to be the person in the field who is the most vocal about defying the code. perry really wants to be the person to make a big splash today in south carolina talking about that. the crowd he's speaking to is a convention of conservative blogger ls. throughout the day the other speakers who have been here this morning really talked about the message. about doing what's right and being a principle conservative and not compromising. we're also going to hear about his record on jobs. that's going to be a key part of his campaign. he wants to talk about job

creation in texas and the policies he's brought forward. >> how about the timing here? how calculated is it on the same day as the iowa straw poll? >> we just came -- she told us that she is going to endorse him in the race before the primary. she said very complementary things about many candidates and rick perry. one thing she said when asked about his timing. she said it's pretty brilliant, was her word for it. it's something that brings a lot of attention to the state, and while the other candidates are in iowa, too, it allows south carolinians to raise their hands and say we're going to be important in this race. >> thanks for phoning in. we invite you to live coverage of the iowa straw poll. at 4:00 p.m. eastern we have a special edition of andrea mitchell reports.

from 6:00 to 8:00 chuck todd hosts a special edition of the daily rundown with all the poll results for you. developing news for pakistan where the u.s. embassy has confirmed an more than contractor has been kidnapped. pakistani place say he was abducted by gunmen from his house in lahore near the border of india. jay gray is in london with the latest here. good morning. any new information about the napped american and the status of things? reports indicate he's been working for several years in pakistan as the country director for development contractor. according to the company's website. he holds a ph.d. in international law is fluid in six languages and worked in the field of international

development for 20 years. the attack was carried out by as many as ten gunmen. they're telling them they wanted to share some food, an act that's common during the muslim holy month. once inside they overpowered the guards and forced a driver to knock on weinstein's door. they loaded him into a car and sped away. there's no indication of a motive. no group claimed responsibility for the kidnapping. abductions are common in pakistan. rarely as brazen as this one. more rare for americans to be the target. though the state department has recently issued a travel advisory for u.s. citizens working or traveling in pakista pakistan. >> people are suggesting this may have something to do with the frosty relationship between

pakistan. >> we know the relations have deteriorated. it's tough to link the two at this point. british authorities are robbing a ma lay shan student during the riots in london last week. it was watched by millions of people on the internet denied bail today. police arrested more than 1,600 people during this. a new court ruling will force casey anthony to return to florida as she was acquitted of murdering her daughter. anthony was released from jail. since then she's been out of public view. she had an earlier conviction for writing bad checks. the judge in charge says anthony must be in florida to serve one year's probation. biding for support.

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in aruba this morning, still no word on robyn gardner, the missing woman from maryland. it's been more than a week since gardner vanished. authorities say they believe she's no longer alive. joining me from washington is criminal profiler pat brown. good morning to you, pat. are you getting any sense of what authorities in aruba think happened to her? >> there's no question she's not alive. the guy she went down there with said pretty much that. he said they went out snorkeling and while he was with her, she disappeared. she hasn't come back. so clearly he's saying she went missing on his watch and she's got to be dead. is she dead in the water? is she dead on the land?

if he didn't help drown her in the water, she drowned accidentally, then they need to look all over aruba to see if her body was stashed some place. >> yeah, this is the same guy that was stopped from leaving aruba, right? he just -- this incident happens. had he checked in with police or authorities afterwards, or did he go to the room, pack up and take off? >> he talked to authorities. he said he would hang around. he obviously wanted to get the heck off the island. he claimed it's because the mother arrived. frankly i think he wanted to get out of there before he could get arrested. which now he's in their custody. if they don't find any physical evidence, he is going to be able to walk away. that's the concern. they need to find something quick. >> does he have a past history of violence against women, and if he does, can that help keep him incarcerated so they can gather more information? >> i don't know if that can help keep him incarcerated. just because some people say he

did nasty things to them doesn't mean you're connected to a crime. we've seen that so many times before where somebody gets to walk, even though we don't like them. yes, he has a history, a lot of people have come forward. he has domestic violence on his record. he's videotaped them having sex. he's threatened them. one woman said he was going to get rid of her because the world would be better off without her. he's a scary guy. unfortunately, robyn, i don't know why she decided to go with him. maybe she knew his criminal record. he obviously offered her something, paid her way down there, and things got worse than she expected for being around with him. >> and what are her friends and saying about all of this? a lot of people have thrown cold water on the process? even going snorkeling. although, i think sometimes people are wrong about that. when a woman goes with a guy and he says, come on, you go snorkeling with me. sometimes they'll do what the

guy said. she really didn't have a thing for the water. she liked her hair and her makeup. from his story, it doesn't sound like they were really in the water. my guess is he was just saying that to throw off the police. i think they're checking out the vehicle. they're checking out the hotel room. they're putting up posters every place. did you see this guy? >> pat brown, thanks for bringing us the latest on this issue. we appreciate that. >> to cuba now, fidel castro turns 85 today. the former president of cuba is celebrating his birthday in private. he's rarely seen in public since he stepped down in 2006 because of medical problems. even in retirement he consults with his brother raul, who replaced him as president. the voting is under way at the iowa straw poll, as well as the annual state fair.

voting is under way right now in iowa at the straw poll in ames, and nine republican presidential hopefuls are looking to early test vote in a boost in their bid for the white house. the event comes with rick perry poised to join. sarah palin made a stop at the the iowa state fair, further fuelling a 2012 run. dave price in des moines, iowa, has more. >> the secret is out, it seems, within seconds. >> i thought it was pretty cool. >> sarah palin e-mailed to say she would come to the fair. she didn't say when or where. when the first fairgoers see her, word spreads fast. >> give her a chance to breathe a little bit. >> i didn't think i would run into her. >> nick's kids are nearly runover by the crowd followinger. the group only grows as the minutes pass. finally after palin sidesteps the persistent, we catch up with her on our own.

will we know by the next time you're in iowa? >> by the next time i'm here, september 3rd, i don't know if within the next couple of weeks i will be ready for an announcement or not, to tell you the truth. glad i get to be back, though. >> palin tells us there's room for another conservative in the race. she adds a decision next month is best. >> to be fair to the potential supporters waiting on figuring out what the field will be. i want to be fair to them and make sure they don't feel like they're just hanging onto something that's not going to happen. >> a stop at the the fair is not just about politicians and people. >> is there a must-have food for you here? >> yes. >> any one in particular? >> fried butter on a stick, fried cheesecake on a stick. and fried chocolate ice cream on a stick. >> you have a cardiologist on staff? but this will be in a more

private place, unlike her walk across the fairgrounds to get there. >> palin is expected to leave iowa today, saying she does not want to step on anybody's toes. well, for the latest political news and analysis from nbc news, head over to first read. it's updated daily. log onto firstread.msnbc.com. you know what they say about karma. life on the links keeps getting worse for tiger woods. the former number one golfer in the world has failed to advance at the pga championship. it's his seventh overall as a pro. a change in routine is helping a minnesota couple cash in big time. thomas and kathleen morris hit it big, winning $229 million powerball jackpot. this week he decided to go big and buy five tickets. the winner was one of the extra two tickets. >> i pulled in. filled up, and then bought the

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state fair yesterday. got lots of people coming up saying they liked what they heard. it's the first time they heard from me. i think we have a little bit of the mow here. hopefully we can crack the top five. there's a lot of folks ahead of us at the polls. if we can crack the top five, maybe fourth, that would be a great finish for us. >> that's what your expectations are set to. top four or five would be good. i would be happier with one, but we're feeling good. >> he's the first speaker on the agenda in iowa at 1:40 p.m. just about two hours from now. he'll be joined by ron paul and two minnesotans. former governor tim pawlenty and michele bachmann. th meanwhile, mitt romney currently leading in the national polls among the gop presidential candidates. he's not in iowa today. instead he's focusing on new

hampshire. last night he spoke to voters trying to clarify remarks he made at the iowa state fair when he said corporations are people. >> it's really astonishing to me that the obama folks would try to argue that businesses aren't people. what do they think they are? little men from mars? the businesses are comprised of people. it's amazing that the democrats and president obama are so far behind the times, they're locked in the 1960s, not to understand that when they tax business, they tax people. businesses are comprised of people. >> well, romney won the straw poll in iowa four years ago. president obama today is urging voters to afeel to lawmakers to end the partisan bickering in washington that's stalling progress. >> if you refuse to settle for politics where scoring points is more important than solving problem. if you believe it's time to put the interest of our children before our own, then let them

know. maybe they'll get back to washington ready to compromise. >> i'm joined by karen finney, and the dc bureau chief for the comcast network who travelled to ames, iowa. good morning to the two of you. >> good morning. >> ladies first this hour. the president passing blame for congress failing to solve our country's economic problems. is that a wise strategy? >> i don't think the president is actually trying to pass on the blame. look, the reality is as the markets have said and most of if polls have said, there is plenty of blame to go around here. i think what the president is saying is i need your help. when you have strong majorities of americans saying we want compromise. we're comfortable raising taxes on the wealthiest americans. if it means protecting medicare and social security. then you have republicans saying we refuse to consider the ideas. there's a problem. that means they're not listening to the people. they're listening to ideology

led by someone like grover norquist. the president is saying for you want something else, i need your help. i need you to weigh in. change comes from people. >> it sounds -- >> go ahead. >> it sounds like when harry truman was blaming the congress as a do nothing congress. the fact of the matter is that democrats control three-thirds of the congress and three-thirds of government. it's a little bit hard for the president to blame congress, if you will, by calling the them obstructionists. they control the senate and the white house. >> okay. they did obstruct when democrats had control, republicans did everything they could to filibuster in the senate. we did get health care passed. you've seen the shenanigans that we saw from the republicans in the last several weeks when john boehner couldn't get his own bill passed. the man has lost control of his caucus. >> but you and i both know that the real person that really got

this debt reduction thing through, or the debt ceiling thing through was mish mcconnell, the republican leader. we also know that john boehner along with speaker -- we know that along with pelosi shepherded through on both sides of the aisle putting through the debt ceiling. for the president to blame congress, i don't think it's going to work with the american people. all blame is to be equally distributed between republicans and democrats. you and i both know that. >> that's what i just said. there's enough blame to go around. what the president is saying is i was at the table. i'm here at the table. i'm ready. let's all come back to the same idea of we have to move forward and we have to work together. you and i both know the part of the reasons the markets said they're not comfortable and don't trust the leadership is who really believes at this point that that super kmoe, that anybody is going to come back and actually see their objective as working together to pass something rather than continuing to play on ideology. i think what the president is saying is we can't afford to do

that and it's not just about our own individual politics. it's about our country at this point. >> can i jump in, robert, and ask you with regard to what karen is alluding to. the super committee. you have 10 of 12 that voted for the debt deal, and of the two who did not vote for it, one is a republican, one is a democrat. does that bode well for you in terms of their ability to compromise and do something and get something done when they figure out to do with the 1.3 trillion they have to cut? >> not really. super committees are super committees. it's a bunch of egos sitting around the table trying to figure out political gain. the only thing that it's different from another committee is they're sitting members of congress. so they have skin in the game. they have constituents they have to answer to. but at the end of the day, i don't want to sound like a cynic here. i don't see a lot coming out of the super committee. that's the main reason why nancy pelosi and mcconnell and boehner, they picked those

people on the super committees because they realize nothing is really going to get done. the reason why it's on the eve of a presidential race. >> the point is we can't afford for nothing to get done. that's the point the president is making and what i hope both parties take out of the message from wisconsin this week. i say this to both republicans and democrats who stepped up to the plate and showed the there will be political consequences when people don't do what they're supposed to do. i take the president's message, and i've said this. people have to get engaged here. there won't be a deal if we don't create political consequences for the leaders. we to do that right now so they know it's unacceptable. presidential election or not. to not come up with a deal and to further destroy the reputation of the united states of america. >> okay, listen, guys. aye so out of time. but i have to ask you, robert, since you're in ames. who is going to come out on top?

if there's any indication? >> it's going to be ron paul. there's no question. he that has the grass roots campaign here. also in terms of momentum, it's going to be ron paul. if so, i'll eat a pound of frid butter. >> i want to hold you to that. >> we're both holding you to that. everyone says it's great, i'm like -- anyway. guys thank you so much. remember to keep it here all day on msnbc for complete coverage of the iowa straw poll, including speeching from the candidates and the announcement of the winner of today's poll. the wild stock market seesaw showing signs of calm. the dow finished with a dane of 425 points. that's the first time it happened in the 115-year history. this morning i spoke with mandy dr

drury about what it means. >> if you had done absolutely nothing with your money. if you had not, for example, panicked and pulled it out. if you had not bought. at the end of the week. you would have only been down 1.5%. i think what we are seeing here is a market that is really struggling to find direction. there are so many unanswered questions out there. questions like what did the downgrade mean for the united states? what is the fed doing to stimulate the economy? is the economy backsliding into the recession? and what is europe doing about the debt problems? it's a lot of uncertainty. uncertainty tends to be something that creates fear and irrational moves. that's partly what we saw this week. >> how do these things skt every day consumers? do they say, i'm not sure what i can spend or do people go out thinking maybe i'll get a deal? >> it creates a level of uncertainty at home.

if you're watching wall street go wild, you're probably thinking maybe i should hold off on the big purchase. maybe i should bide my time. through are a few seal ver linings. mortgage rates are at record lows. this is one thing that's come out of the tour moil. it's been pushing down interest rates across the boards. mortgage rates are at record lows. that has to be good for the housing market. gasoline prices have come down. crude prices are coming down. so what we've seen at the pump from a week ago, i think we're down 2.3%. if we con to come down at the same pace of decline, we could be at 350 or maybe under. so those are two silver linings. >> on the wake of the stock market skid, consumer confidence at the lowest level since 1980. a new judge's ruling will be bringing casey anthony back to florida. she was released from jail after a jury acquitted her of

murdering the daughter. now she has to come back to serve one year's probation. joining me now is karen desoto. good morning to you. she has to come back and register, appear before a judge or probation officer and do her thing. does she have to stay in florida? can she go anywhere in the country as long as she's registered? >> let's be realistic. if she has to do paper withwork probation, she's going to be here a while. that takes time. probation is a slow process. like every other government office, alex. >> is there a legitimate concern about her safety? there sure was. remember how she left the jail? so quiet. out stealth and secret. sightings around the country. >> you have to call and make arrangements to do anything with her now. people are very passionate about her. and they want to do her harm. you have to be careful.

if you're going to call her into court, make sure you have enough court officers, you have to put barriers up. maybe ohio is a good place for her, alex. >> what about the access to her information. they put everything in the system. and it's supposed to be on public record. for instance, if you're a sex offender, that's how we find out where they live. >> you're going to have to black everything out. any 12-year-old can hack into the government systems if they want the information. turn on msnbc. you can find out where she's shopping in ohio. i think it will be difficult short of her leaving the country to protect herself. it's something she is going to have to live with. >> does the stay have a responsibility to offer her protection? >> yes. they tell you on the courthouse steps to the courtroom.

if you know ahead of time, they will make arrangements to help you. especially if you know there's debt tlets. they're getting phone calls from angry people. the dui case. one of the reporters from msnbc got his foot run over because of the chaos. this is more heightened. a little child who has been murdered. every mother in the world is beside herself with anger about this case. there's a lot to be concerned with. >> the police protection could extend beyond the courthouse steps. >> jose baez could make a petition saying we need police protection at taxpayer cost? >> yes, they can. she can harm other people, just like the reporter at msnbc. the people outside can get crushed. people can get hurt. court officers can be harmed. people got punched waiting to see the trial. it's a significant concern for everybody involved. >> it's going to be a zoo potentially. karen is like, yeah, you got

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a buzzsy night for police in philadelphia after dozens of teenagers were caught breaking the city's new curfew. three separate groups of teenagers were arrested for being on the streets past 9:00. the curfew was put into effect by the mayor after several random attacks by groups of teenagers. a bus flipped over in pennsylvania early this morning. about two dozen people were injured. it overturned on the pennsylvania turnpike right near the 11 on lancaster exit. the bus orj nated in new york city. it made a stop in philadelphia before heading towards pittsburgh and st. louis. let's go back now to iowa and the voting is under way this hour at the ames straw poll. today's contest will be the first important measure of the gop pack on the road to the 2012

presidential election. joining me live from ames is charlie cook. with a good morning to you, charlie. i have to ask. i know you were just able to get into place for the interview. is it a zoo out there? is a big security sweep that they're doing? what's going on? >> this is my third or fourth straw poll. it always remind me of sort of the normandy invasion. you have buses coming in from each of the 99 counties across the state for various candidates. they drop them off at the prepositioned areas near the tent areas for each campaign. and it really is an amazing amount of organization and really a lot of fun. it's a beautiful day out there. >> that's good. that will help make sure people get out and enjoy things and go vote. saying that you've been to three or four of these, do you see anything different this year from any other straw poll that you witness sd? >> not really. it's always a matter of survival. where you have a big field

coming in. and the heard gets cold a it usually at straw poll. two or three of the folks that didn't make the cut don't move on. there's no real opportunity for a real boost to raise more money if you do badly at this point. they'll have a fewer number of people in the race a couple weeks for now than you do right now. >> do you see contender emerging not necessarily at the top of the minds of the voters and certainly the media? i'm talking about newt gingrich, herman cains. do you think they have a shot at surviving this and continuing strongly in the campaigns? >> surviving as viable candidates, i'm doubtful. the way i look at the race, you have two races. one is for the really conservative wing of the party.

and one for the fairly conservative wing. the question is can tim pawlenty hang in there with mitt romney on the conservative wing, and then i think it's probably going to shape up to be a michele bachmann and rick perry who get in the race later today. that between -- as the main candidates on the really, really, really conservative wing, and it's like ncaa basketball tournament. you have brackets and you're competing within the brackets and there's a championship game. >> what about the ron paul factor? i've had some suggest he's going to come in on top. he's very well organized there. >> ron paul does well at straw polls. but just simply doesn't win primaries and caucuses. i think ron paul, in fact i went to two events that he spoke at earlier this week. you get a sense he's not running to win the nomination or to get elected, although i'm sure he'll take it. he's got an agenda. hooe got issues he wants to talk about. i don't think he's under a dill

lugs he's going to win the nomination. he's about advancing the issues that feel important to him. >> i want to ask you what you think. i'm always wondering when people go to a poll, do they vote their conscious and what they really believe in, or do they vote who they think can actually win an election? you have both sides of the spectrum, and you see the embodiment of that. how do you make that decision? what do people do? >> i think most people vote their convictions. but as the process moves further, sometimes a little pragmatism comes in. certainly there are some republicans who will say, well, my heart is with so and so, but i think my head has a more likely chance of winning. i think that typically happens further in the process. they start off with their hearts at the beginning. >> okay. give me a prediction, charlie, if you will. >> oh, i'm not -- i'm predicting that the field is going to be smaller. even with the addition of rick

perry today. the field is going to be a lot smaller in a couple weeks. i've given up trying to do that. i need to do this -- i need to do this a while longer. i'm not going to ruin my reputation >> well, i won't let you do that. thank you very much, charlie. good to see you. we invite all of you to stay with msnbc. we have live coverage of the iowa straw poll. we'll have live reports from ames throughout the afternoon. and at 4:00, we have a special edition of andrea mitchell reports. go! go! completing an atm deposit in record time... that's a step forward. go! go! with deposit friendly atms, you can make ultra fast, secure deposits with no slips or envelopes.

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voting is underway right now in iowa at the straw poll in ames. nine presidential hopefuls are looking for a boost to their white house bids. this comes with texas governor rick perry poised to enter the campaign later today in south carolina.

coming up at the top of the hour, we'll have the latest from ames. meantime in aruba this morning, authorities are still trying to determine what happened to robin gardner. legal officials on the island believe that the maryland woman is no longer alive, but they have questions that have yet to be answered. joining me from washington is dan morris, reporter for "the washington post." dan, good morning. >> good morning. >> what do we know about the search of the house in maryland owned by her traveling companion? >> the fbi searched that last night. they got there, they were there by 9:30. there were more than 12 unmarked police cars in his driveway. he has a very long driveway and it was filled with cars. they were there for at least a couple of hours. and left about 11:00 last night. >> do we know what they extracted from the house? >> no, we don't. i've been trying to find that out this morning. we don't know what they got yet.

i know that they talked to the prosecutor in aruba the day before. he said the search warrant was coming and he was interested in any kind of records that could be found in there. >> okay. because we do believe that these two met online, gary having met her there. so with regard to him being in custody, how long can he stay behind bars in arublea? >> on monday, there will be a hearing that i think will be key that the judge will decide whether to keep him longer, whether to keep him detained or something in between where he's allowed to leave but he's got to stay on the island. that's going to be based on what the prosecutors down there will tell the judge. i think monday we'll learn a lot more. >> dan, do we know what he has

been telling police in aruba? >> he got there on july 31st, and on august 2nd, he told the authorities there at 6:23, he told the authorities robyn and i were snorkeling. i came in, she didn't come in and that was the last time i saw her. they're trying to find witnesses who saw both of them and they got someone that saw them at a restaurant at 4:00 p.m. on that day. so there's that two hours they're trying to find people who saw them, saw what they were doing. >> dan morris, thank you for joining us from "the washington post." >> sure. thank you. voting has begun at the iowa straw poll and the speeches are about to begin from the candidates. we're also going to be with you all day and take you into the

night to bring you results of the poll. stay with us. i'm not going anywhere. another hour of coverage. we'll be right back. i love that my daughter's part fish. but when she got asthma, all i could do was worry ! specialists, lots of doctors, lots of advice... and my hands were full. i couldn't sort through it all. with unitedhealthcare, it's different. we have access to great specialists, and our pediatrician gets all the information. everyone works as a team. and i only need to talk to one person about her care. we're more than 78,000 people looking out for 70 million americans. that's health in numbers. unitedhealthcare.