ask your doctor about symbicort. i got my first prescription free. call or click to learn more. [ male announcer ] if you can't afford your medication, astrazeneca may be able to help. right now on a special weekend edition of "january dry mitchell reports," we are live in ames, iowa, as republican presidential hopefuls try to beat voter and media expectations. meanwhile, rick perry is officially in the race. the texas governor announced his bid for president earlier this afternoon in charleston, south carolina. >> that is not a recovery, that is an economic disaster. [ applause ] >> good day, i'm andrea mitchell live in ames, iowa, where the voting is ending and officials are starting to count those votes. we'll soon learn who wins the

first real test of candidates for the primary. the candidates made their case during the past few hours. >> you know what america needs, but unfortunately barack obama has absolutely no clue. he is like a manure stuck in a windstorm. >> together we are going to make barack obama a one-term president! >> time to bring the troops home. [ applause ] >> let's empower people! empower businesses! >> we can focus on the jeopardy, or we can seize the opportunities. >> i had to wave my hand and ask for recognition. this is the little engine that could campaign. >> checked out is nbc news correspondent and political director joins me now, are you in your element, brother.

let me tell you. you just came back from being outside wrangling and watching. one of the things you noticed is that marcus bachman is pulling people in -- >> the polls have closed. you know, the polls closed a couple of minutes ago. and the last five minutes, doing all -- you sensed the urgency in the bachmann campaign. it's been a tough 48 hours for them. they've taken hits from pawlenty. and while their folks feel good at how that came -- came off on television, i think she's realizing that the perry announcement means she has to win here. there's no second place for michele bachmann. >> it was a really awkward moment when our alex moll caught up with sarah palin at the iowa fair and asked how she felt about that "newsweek" cover and all the beating up on bachman. and the question about whether

or not she's submissive. and she said, well, i wouldn't be submissive to my husband. >> right. you know, it's a question i think she's got to answer in a way -- you know, what folks don't realize at the debate is there was another way, there was another way that she had said it herself, and i think that was what was so confusing to folks when the question was asked. and so it was just not asked very well. the reference was missing, as far as the debate was concerned. i think that's why it turned into a pretty good moment for her. looked like -- frankly, it sounded like a sexist question. if you realized what she had said before, it's a different type of question. >> the palin effect, she shows up at the reagan birthplace in dixon, illinois, today. what is she about? >> look, i can tell you what the other campaigns around here are fearful of. that she is somehow a secret perry surrogate. she and rick per reclose. she campaigned for rick perry

against -- against kaye bailey hutchinson and that's her fear, that she's secretly helping him, coming here, trying to take away a little of the spotlight. downplay ames just a little more as if perry's announcement's not enough. i think at the same time this goes back to we all -- she's acting like somebody not running for president even though she wants to say she's still considering. she's not doing the things you would do. >> right. >> so you get the sense that this is the case, she wants to get out on her own terms. she doesn't want to be told that there's no room for her. and that by doing this, she can feel good, gets a big crowd, and say, well, despite all the support i have, rick perry is finally the guy i've been waiting to hear who's talking the game that i've been wanting to hear, that says the message that i think is the right message. you could see that coming. and in fact the real speculation i hear is that if she comes back over labor day weekend, which is supposedly she's due back here to launch the pay per view version of the movie "undefeated," that could be where she endorses rick perry.

>> let's talk about the perry announcement and the impact that will have on the race. >> well, look, it is -- he's the lead -- let's be realistic. you and i are political reporters. we're here, yes, and ames is a co-lead for us now because we're here. but if you look from 30,000 feet, the lead is the longest serving active governor of the second largest state is announcing that he's running for president. that's a big deal. >> and he's arriving in iowa tomorrow. >> that's right. new hampshire tonight, iowa tomorrow. in fact, he's going to be in iowa for two days. it's interesting. in his release he emphasizes he's going to have a vigorous campaign in iowa, new hampshire, and south carolina. the romney team likes to emphasize new hampshire, downplay iowa and emphasize nevada and florida. i had a smart republican friend of mine who's sort of retired from politics these days, who said, you know, with rick perry we're going to know in two weeks. there's sharp edges about him. he's a well-defined personality.

he either works or he doesn't. and it either takes off instant co-front runner with romney and we've got ourselves a march ala ford-reagan, '76, that it is a slug fest, or it burns out quickly. that there's really no in between with rick perry. >> obama-clinton. >> could be. could be. you got -- all of a sudden we got to learn the new delegate rules. the rnc changed their delegate rules. >> that's an unreported story, chuck todd. it's a different deal. >> here's what it also means -- ron paul could win today, he could finish second. by the way, if he finishes second, it's pawlenty in third. but paul with these new rules, he's got every incentive to stay in and can live off the land. she might decide she has every incentive to stay in. if you're going to get proportional representation of delegates, then there's no incentive to do anything other than that. but it's a weird calendar, by the way. we've got a bunch of early

states. super tuesday's not so super this time. it's back to eight or nine states. then there's a gap because a bunch of states canceled their presidential primaries and just put it back with their regular primary schedule. may and june could be a busy time of the year again. >> looks more like a democratic race. >> vacation in april. it's -- we'll have to do a week-long vacation in april and get back to work. >> we haven't figured that vacation thing out, you or i. chuck todd is taking over coverage. our ames straw poll coming up starting at 6:00. we will have result, so stay with us. and let's bring in msnbc analyst and former republican national chairman michael steele. michael, thanks for joining us. i know you don't think any of them should get out or at least not the top candidates -- >> no. >> and not tim pa latina. a lot can -- pa latiwlenty. >> no. we put in place a proportional delegate provision that allows

for a greater lengthening this campaign. we don't want this primary over on the 1st of march. we want to be able to allow all the candidates to get out, make their chase, state it well, make their argument, raise their money. it gives candidates like a bachmann or a ron paul or a pawlenty who are maybe at the margins financially or at the margins politically a chance to kind of push the envelope a little bit, push the party in a different direction, maybe have a different kind of conversation. i hope that that is the way this unfolds because that's how we intended it. we don't want a quick primary. i know a lot of media have talked this up like, okay, this is almost over. you know, perry's in. and he's the guy. well, not necessarily. i thought he gave a presidential speech today. but he's now going to run the gauntlet like the rest of these candidates. that could help this process overall, i think, lengthening it out. >> michael, what are his strengths and weak notes, rick

perry? >> i not his strengths are they just kind of hit you in the face again. touched on a couple of them. the state of texas, it's his record there as a governor. longest serving, so he's gone through the waves of -- of a good economy and a bad economy. and he steered his state through despite washington. and washington's interference or lack of support for states at times. but i think the other side of that is, you know, exactly pulling back that and looking at the record a little more and saying, okay, what have you done precisely on jobs? what have you done precisely on these other programs that touch people's lives here in this state that could be a model, an example of how you would touch people's lives across the board. and so when you look at certain department, you look at certain agencies, you look at certain programs, you may find something to stick him with because he cut spending in that program, he eliminated a program here or there. and how he's able to handle that

politically goes to the other point that chuck made. that is, you know, his friends saying he's either going to be, you know, all hat and no cattle or not. it's either going to work or it's not going to work. the realty is for him to hit the ground hard, run hard, lay out an argument against the president and maybe even against some of his opponents, and hope for the best because this is going to be a wild ride, i think. >> he made a very strong economic pitch today that was a big economic message there also on foreign policy against the president. but his evangelical roots, does he hurt michele bachmann most of all of those who are in the race right now. >> you know, i think a lot of the conventional wisdom is that he does pull from that. but i don't think so much. i think they kind of share that -- that land a little bit. you know, evangelicals are very strong in their view on -- when it comes to the political leadership and how they talk about their issues.

the one thing about michele bachmann that gives her strength and steady standing in this area is that she relates it back to her life. she relates it back to how she's raised her children, how she's brought that to her public service. so i think in the long term, she's going to be able to survive, you know, any peel-off of some of those evangelicals who may go to perry because they like the way he sounded on this or that issue. i think they're going to split more than one, grab more than the other. >> and we've certainly seen that she is able to run a disciplined campaign. >> yep. >> and a campaign that has taken knocks, bounced back, and she's got a lot of money. she's a good fundraiser. >> she's a very good fundraiser. and i thought that moment for me at least in the debate when she was asked that assinine question about being submissive to your husband, i don't care what context you take that in, i thought it was a stupid, assinine question to ask someone

running for the presidency. she handled it well, she was able to show that that she can stand up to men who ask silly questions sheemp run into a lot of those folks as she becomes president. she'll have to manage them. it could take away confidence that she can hold her own and really put -- i guess to rest some of the myths about women, female politicians. it began with geraldine ferraro, and we've seen the steady stream certainly in this last cycle of women elected officials stepping up and showing that they're not your average politician by any stretch. and they're certainly not going to take those types of hits without responding. and i think that's a positive step for her. >> i can tell you just walking around the fairgrounds yesterday and talking to women, they were not happy about the way she was being treated, you know, the larger picture, the "newsweek"

cover. they were rallying around her. >> exactly. and i think america has to come to grips now with the realty that women are mainstays -- they are now a part of the political foundation of the future of this country, and they're going be and do more than they're doing right now. so the -- you know, you got to get used to it and understand that you can't comment then with these old-fashioned sort of, you know, 1950s yesterdays about the role of women in our community and our society. they have more than proven their capabilities and their abilities politically. and i think there's nor come. and michele is just the beginning, i think, of demonstrating that. >> michael steele, thank you very much. my feminist friend there back in washington. thanks for joining us. we're still waiting on the results, who's going to take the lead here in ames, and how could this be the end of the road perhaps for some of the candidates. coming up, i'll be talking to

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we've got an empty arena in ames, iowa, because these seats e filled by people voting right now. the voting closed a half-hour ago. spots will close up as we get close to the results being released for the iowa straw poll. for more analysis, we attorney a man who knows everything it politics inside and out and what appeals to american voters. msnbc's host of "morn joe," joe scarborough joining me by phone. we've been watching drama the last couple of days in iowa and also in south carolina. let's talk about south carolina first. rick perry joining the race with a lot of strength and passion and making the pitch.

the economic pitch against president obama's record in the white house. >> no doubt about it. rick perry for what some of his detractors may say about him, and i've been a detractor from time to time. rick perry takes care of a lot -- he checks a lot of boxes for republican primary voters. here's a guy who obviously is a social conservative. so you can check that box off. and you can draw a lot from michele bachmann voters in the coming months. but also an economic conservative. he will tell anybody that listens to him for more than 30 seconds on the campaign trail that texas has a remarkable record when it comes to creating jobs. so he is going to be a very effective campaigner and a large presence in the republican primary. i guess my bigger questions about rick perry really have to

do with how he would do in a general election. but right now, that's not the issue, and that's not the challenge for him or any of the other candidates. it's how they're going to do in the primaries. and i suspect that he and mitt romney will be fighting each other for some time. >> and as we were pointing out earlier, and michael steele and chuck todd are reinforcing that the rules have changed. this could be a very long, dragged out primary process because it's not winner take all. it's proportional. and super tuesday has fewer states, and a lot of these states are backloaded, back in june, in fact. we could have a long -- >> isn't that amazing, andrea? >> yeah. >> this could end up being like a nomination like we had in the democratic side in 1976. you remember when jimmy carter won in iowa. and really dragged the fight throughout the summer with people like jerry brown. we don't really see those type of campaigns anymore. most of the campaigns are like the republican one was four years ago.

john mccain won florida, then he won new york, connecticut, and a couple of other large states, winner take all. it was over. really over by february. this really could drag out into the summer. what's going to be so fascinate being that is i suspect you're going to see two tightly controlled campaigns from mitt romney and from rick perry. these are people that will are not going to be going on your show very much. one of the top fox hosts was complaining in ames earlier this week that it's impossible to get mitt romney for an interview, as well. so if they have to fight for three, four, five, six months into 2012, it's going to be fascinating to see just how tightly they can control their message because that's obviously what these guys are going to try to do. >> exactly. they're going to try to give their set speeches and not -- not face real questions, although mitt romney showed for the first time in iowa the other

day that he really could mix it up with some democratic hecklers at the state fair. and he showed a different side of him. it was probably the most -- the best campaigning that we've seen out on the stump. >> i think mitt romney has improved remarkably well over the past four years. you remember how stiff and awkward he was in 2008. now he's not -- he's not as loose as michele bachmann as far as the speaking style goes. she was -- she was very relaxed on the stage today. but romney has gotten much better. he turned in a very good debate performance. it's still surprising to a lot of us that more republicans didn't go after him on the debate stage since he is the front-runner. but you're exactly right. he's also doing better on the stump. and i still think this is mitt romney's to loose. and i suspect the only news coming out of ames today is going to be if tim pawlenty is

beaten by either rick santorum or herman cain. if he is, i suspect that may be the end of pawlenty's campaign. >> and guess where sarah palin is today -- she rode that bus right into dixon, illinois. so she's not migs a beat on her bus tour. i can tell you, joe, walking around that fair yesterday, she was drawing the crowds. michele bachmann had crowds, but sarah palin had everybody following her, not -- not just a media scrum. these were real people who were very excited to see her. she's got star quality. >> boy, she really does. >> it's crazy. >> all the candidates in this race, there's no doubt that michele bachmann and ron paul excite their different bases, but there is one political star in the republican party right now that can draw the crowds wherever she goes, and that's sarah palin. and of course this enrages both sides when you draw this comparison. but sarah palin is the

republican party's barack obama. not a whole lot of experience in washington before running on the national stage in 2008. questionable abilities to govern based on the fact she was only governor a couple of years in alaska. and barack obama was really glorified state legislator when he became president. boy, they are both political superstars, and they can both energize their base. and sarah palin still has that. >> joe, this whole process here in ames with rick perry stepping on the message and he's going to turn up here in iowa tomorrow, campaign here for a couple of days and try to make it up to the iowans that he was not part of the ames straw poll process. this is really just an exercise for the political organizer, the committed -- does this match up here and the way it's going come down, does this reflect anything about the race at large?

>> you talking about the straw poll itself? >> the straw poll itself, exactly. >> well, you know, the straw poll is an opportunity obviously for candidates to emerge and somebody like rick santorum who hasn't had a reason to cheer, who was ignored for the most part in the debate the other night. but mainly again -- and hate to say this because i think most people in the party really like him. but the only big headline out of this is probably going to be what happens to governor pawlenty. and if he finishes, say, in fourth place between herman cain, who i understand from people who were there just had -- his speech was received remarkably well. i think that's your headline. this all -- this ends up being a referendum on tim pawlenty if he's in third place. his campaign continues.

if cain or santorum are ahead of him, i think he probably packs it up and hopes somebody selects him as vice president. >> as you say, he's a really nice guy that everyone likes. he was terrific at a breakfast here, a politico breakfast yesterday. funny and loose. when he gets into that formal campaign context, people don't see the real tim pawlenty. thank you very much -- >> and you know, in 2012, as you're well aware, republicans don't want a nice guy running against barack obama. they want somebody that is going to take it to obama. that's one of the reasons why donald trump enjoyed a quick explosion in the poll when -- the polls when he went after obama. even in the controversial way because people -- you know, there are a lot of leo durochers in the republican party. nice guys finish last they

believe. and tim pawlenty is a very nice, decent guy, who had a good record in minnesota. that's why i suspect even if he has problems today, even if he gets out of the race, coming from minnesota, he's a guy that a lot of people might be looking for as a possible number two on the ticket. >> joe scarborough, thank you very much for interrupting your weekend and joining us here. and of course you can all get your fix of "morning joe" every weekday morning here on msnbc. thanks, joe. and the results are now being tallied. the ames straw poll could spell the end of the line for tim pawlenty as -- and some of the others, as well as joe was saying. keep it here for the breaking news.

we've got a few political tidbits being reported. right here in ames, nbc campaign

reporter jack kent. he said that rick santorum said in his tent that he intends to sign iowa congressman steve king's pledge. he would repeal president obama's decisions if he were made president. coming up, david gregory here, offering his analysis, plus a preview of david's interview tomorrow morning with the lady of the hour. michele bachmann. ry important t. perdue perfect portions is great on busy nights. five chicken breasts individually wrapped, so you can use what you want and put the rest in the refrigerator. and the best part is it only takes 10 minutes. it's my go-to meal.

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with the blow dryer and the flat iron until i see smoke. so pantene said, "breakage and split ends? no problem." they gave me this pantene called breakage to strength. [ female announcer ] the keratin protection pro-v system helps prevent then repair split ends. zero fear of breakage, 100% more strength. no regrets, just health. i'm not giving up the heat. [ female announcer ] the breakage to strength system from pantene. welcome back to this special saturday live edition of "andrea mitchell reports." i'm in ames, iowa. of course we're awaiting the results of the iowa straw poll. joining me "meet the press" host and moderator david gregory. you've been walking around. one of the most notable things is the line at michele bachmann's tent. >> the line for the food and to get in to see randy traf is. you know, just if you're a country music fan, the winner obviously gets randy travis.

i think that's one of the rules. but you know what, there's a lot of enthusiasm out there generally across the board, walking around today, was one of my takeaways. there's no question. she had long lines for food all day long. they're giving it away, obviously. but people didn't actually leave the lines. i spoke to one of her advisers, said they had given away 4,000 ticket before 2:00 in the afternoon here in iowa. you know, it promises to be a pretty big day for her. >> at one point, marcus bachman was pulling people in and people started wandering out, filing out in order. >> right. it goes back to one of the basic test here. we don't want to inlitigate the importance of the ames straw poll, but this is a summer test, an early test of organizational strength, of grassroots support, yeah, i thought it was striking. up on the stage, she said i'm asking for your vote.

the only one i heard say that -- i remember covering president bush year in and year out. he always said that was his most enduring lesson in politics is to ask people to vote. if you're at the straw poll, to actually get them out the door and make sure they do it. >> don't forget to ask. speaking of governors from texas, since you spent so much time on that trail, rick perry -- he had a really strong kickoff today. >> well, he did because -- don't forget there's so much republican money on the sidelines in this race. and there's a lot of republican voters who aren't happy with the choice. and yet there's so much excitement and so much anger, frankly, in -- on the republican sides of the aisle. the electorate. so those are all going to to be his benefit. he comes in at a time when he has the prospects of at least straddling both ends this race. the establishment end and the populist end with his tea party support. big republican state, lot of access to money, so he comes with a lot of strengths. but a lot of question marks, as well. not only because of things that he said, but, you know, again

covering president bush and knowing people around him, they have a lot of questions. frankly, a lot of criticism of him in terms of his -- his crossover appeal in the general election. but as joe scarborough mentioned a few minutes ago, that's not his focus right now. his focus now is can he jump to the top of a crowded field and make this, you know, a two-person race if it can be done. >> he's always been underestimated because he, of course, was 30 points ahead of kay bailey hutchison and then just went on to wipe her out in that primary for governor. the other thing about rick perry is that he has an economic message. >> he does. >> now it will be fact-checked, and there are other factors that led to job growth in texas. from gas prices to military expenditures. right now at least pom line he can say "i created jobs, where are barack obama's jobs?" >> we're in a fascinating period. we've talked about it on "meet the press" and when i've been on your program.

this is a date about the role of government in our lives. but t a heavily fought debate because the stakes are so high and the economy is in such bad shape. ultimately, a candidate like perry is going to make that claim today. he said government's got to get out of the way. that he sees as the road to economic recovery. there's a lot of other economists who are saying, no, that economic message from republicans is exactly tone deaf. it's the wrong message at a time when the economy needs some stimulus. so this is really the battleground between an incumbent president who's got to make the case for why government is part of the answer, and congresswoman bachmann and others saying we've got to get it out of the way. >> and you have a big show on the stage tomorrow. you've got michele bachmann. >> right. congresswoman bachmann. part of our "meet the candidate" series. it's our opportunity to ask about her record and thing she said in the past. and what she'd do about this

economy. >> thank you very much. we'll be watching. as we await the straw poll results, let's go to michael steele, bringing in nbc analyst and former republican chairman michael steele. michael, what is the value of the straw poll? >> the value is to make money. let's break it right down. the state parties love this because this is a chance where you're going to galvanize the political world's attention on a state, in this case, iowa. and you're going to raise a lot of money from it which is great because you put dollars to use for organizing and getting your grassroots together and active and out there. come next year's election. i think beyond that not much in my view. you know, you see straw polls where, you know, the person with the least chance of even coming close to winning the top prize wins that straw poll. and the realty then shifts because people think there's some significance to that. there isn't.

the fact is this is about being able to get a number of voters to turn out to vote for you. this is an open process, you're going to have democrats voting in this straw poll today. you have independents voting in the straw poll today. so in some sense it's not a real reflection of where the republican base is on these candidates. so you got to take a lot of this with a grain of salt. i know it's part of the political life and culture this country. but as we've seen in presidential primaries, you don't necessarily have to win this straw poll or the iowa caucuses for that matter to go on to become the nominee and potentially the president. so there's more play in this political world. something i discovered early on as the chairman of the rnc in 2009. politics is different, people look at their politics differently. and they exercise it differently. this is now just becoming one of many steps that candidates have to go through to get the nomination. >> one of the things we should

point out is that everyone that votes is paying $30 up front for a ticket to vote in the straw poll. that eliminates a lot of people. >> it eliminates a lot of people. again, you have candidates and campaigns, you know, spend money where they will buy a block of ticket. you heard david and others refer to 4,000 tickets paid by the bachmann team to have folks come in. that's votes, potentially 4,000 vote. the down side is no guarantee that i'm eating brisket that i'm going to votes for you. that's the other side of this thing. i don't know what it reflects beyond the popularity of a particular individual at this moment. >> i guess it depends on how good the brisket s. michael steele, thank you very much. >> there you go. thanks for joining us again. the front-runners are hoping their hard work and money pays off as they await the results of the poll. just how criticediitical is it

that one spot? our special coverage continuing next.

we're 15 minutes away from learning the results here in iowa at the straw poll. critical day for michele bachmann who is trying to rocket to the top here. and do or die for tim pawlenty. joining me in saim "washington post" white house reporter chris cillissa with us. and bloomberg view columnist. first to you, chris. let's talk about what you were seeing outside, long lines outside michele bachmann. could have been for the brisket, we don't know, the barbecue. randy travis, a lot of draws there. she has a lot of money to spread around not she's been handing out tickets. >> she has. there are reports that she handed out more than 6,000 tickets. if that's true, she's likely to win this thing. if you look at past results, basically the biggest we've ever seen was george w. bush in 1999,

7,418 -- don't ask why i know the exact number -- 7,418 votes. he won about 31%. that's the most votes we've seen anyone get. if bachmann is close to 6,000, we don't expect turnout to be anywhere near what it was in 1999. in 1999, 23,000 people voted. by contrast, in 2007, 14,000 people voted. if she can get anywhere near that number, she's likely to win. i think the person to watch really is tim pawlenty. if he doesn't finish second, if ron paul managed to bump up and finish second behind michele bachmann, that's a real problem for this campaign. >> about two hours ago, phil musser from pawlenty's campaign said we could finish third and fourth and keep going. that's awfully hard. jonathan alter, you've been watching this with a little perspective from new york as we pour over these small numbers of voters. this is the grassroots, organized, committed agreed to. michael steele was pointing out and others that democrats and independents can cross over and vote here. i have not seen a real sign of

that. the people here are the true believers. >> yeah. i don't want to pour cold water over the iowa straw poll. i covered them in the past. but what happens this afternoon is probably not going to be critical for this race going forward. there were other things that happened this week that will be critical for this race like ben bernanke making sure that interest rates will stay a basically zero for the next two years. barack obama indicating in michigan that he is going to take the gloves off and run against the republican congress. that iconic moment in the debate the other night where all of the candidates raised their hands and said that, you know, they wouldn't accept any revenue increases even on a 10-1 ratio, $10 of spending cuts for every $1 of revenue increase, raising the question of whether that even -- they would raise taxes to pay for a war.

finally, rick perry's entrance. so those are four big events this week. whether the straw poll is a fifth big event remains to be seen. >> sglouft a few minutes ago, in fact, michele bachmann and herman cain had an encounter outside. part of the sort of carnival and state fair atmosphere here. we want to show a little of it to you. >> can i borrow a golf cart? you borrowed -- i'm serious. >> are you serious? >> i'm dead serious. >> i've got to double the salaries of people working for me. >> that's all right. i'll be fit and in shape. >> so, you know, this is becoming sort of a -- a group -- they're on the road, they're encountering each other all the time. >> right. >> it's very high spirited. >> yeah. >> chris? >> what you see here, andrea, if you go outside, you see that this is -- this is -- while i graez with jonathan that especially michele bachmann, it's nothing nurnd the sun.

she was the iowa front-runner going in, she may be the iowa front-runner coming out. august 13, we may see the most important thing was rick perry getting into the race, not if michele bachmann winning the ames straw poll. i will say from a political junkie perspective, it is a neat thing to go out and see all the -- the speech-ifying, all of the people out on a nice, admittedly, a nice, not-too-hot day in iowa. as someone who follows olympics a daily and minute-by-minute basis, it does my heart some good to see people engaged in the process. is it a representative sample of even what we expect in the iowa caucuses? no. 120,000, 140,000 people are going to vote. we've been talking about turnout, 14,000. talking about 10% of what is a pretty small turnout of 140,000 people in the caucuses. but as an exercise in democracy, i -- maybe i'm pollianish, but i enjoy it and have fun. >> you have to love it. first in the nation. thank you very much, we'll be

seeing more of you. jonathan alter, my friend, thank you. we will talk about one of the biggest political moments that has happened today. nowhere near aim, iowa. we're talking about rick perry's announcement that he will seek the republican nomination for president. does he stand a real chance at actually getting there? well i always worry about what's in the food

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and welcome back to ames where we are in the arena waiting for the actual rundown of who run, who lost, who came in second, but let's bring in politico's jim martin who has the numbers. >> two sources tell me there were nearly 17,000 votes cast, andrea. that will be about 3,000 more votes than four years ago here. and by our analysis that's good news for michele bachmann who wanted a higher turnout. and the rule of thumb talking to iowa veterans was the closer to

20,000 better for bachmann, and closer to 10,000 better for pawlenty. >> if bachmann comes in second and pawlenty is in first, that's a problem for him. >> if bachmann comes in first, ron paul in second, he's back at third by ten or more points, it is tough for him to go forward. how do you go to donors to make sure you are a viable candidate after living here for the last month. >> jonathan, 17,000 votes, 3,000 more than last time, and we were talking about handfuls of votes, but in this context it is a big deal. >> it is. i think it shows the energy the party has here and being with president obama but also the organic energy from michelle obama. since announcing her candidacy, she's held on this state. i was talking to folks in line today over at her tent. you were there, too. the line was a half mile it seemed like.

home-schoolers, pastors, a lot of families in line. those are the dedicated ground troops here in iowa. if you are a republican, you have to have this on your side to win caucuses. >> jonathan martin, thank you very much. meanwhile, texas governor rick perry announced -- well, he's not competing in the straw poll, he is officially launching his campaign and will be in iowa tomorrow and probably the next day. he launched the campaign in south carolina today. too late to qualify for the central poll, although he had some write-in votes. >> it is time to get america working again and that's why with the support of my family and unwavering belief in the goodness of america i declare to you today as a candidate for president of the united states. >> nbc's kristen welker is following perry and is joining me from greenland, new hampshire. hey, kristin. he had a lot of energy going into that campaign kickoff

today. >> reporter: he really did. there were fireworks today in south carolina. then he comes here to new hampshire, pam tucker's house, a state representative. there are going to be a lot of notable people here. a lot of people working hard to get him elected. this could indeed be a bit of a game changer, andrea. this is someone who is a three-term governor of texas. he has been in elected office since 1984. he has never lost a single race. folks i spoke with in texas who know him well say when he plays he plays to win. he is great at fund-raising and raised about $40 million for his last gubernatorial race. so you will see that same type of momentum here. by the way, he's running second in some polls to mitt romney. he has tea party appeal because he's a social conservative, a fiscal conservative, so that could, in fact, threaten michele bachmann and tim pawlenty. he has a lot of momentum. and you saw him today draw a real contrast with the president, with president obama.

he said, i'm basically going to be advocating low taxes, small government. he's trying to paint himself as the anti-president obama, if you will. but one thing, he hasn't been tested yet on the national stage, so we'll have to see how this plays out. i spoke to political insiders in texas who tell me the way to think about rick perry is not to any think about george bush. he is far more conservative than george w. bush. that will be interesting. george w. bush is self-proclaimed uniter. perry is not a uniter. he still does have a lot of momentum right no tow make things more interesting. andrea? >> kristen welker, thank you. in new hampshire and iowa, two of our favorite states. that does it for us with at an dry yeah mitchell reports." more results coming up with chicago chotd. watch us every day at 1:00 p.m. send me your thought

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