the first crucial test of the 2012 presidential campaign is here. who will come out on top in the ames straw poll? will there be any surprises? and will michele bachmann keep her momentum? who has the most to lose today? all this while in charleston, south carolina. a split-screen day. texas governor rick perry shakes up the race declaring he's now running for president. how does his announcement and timing scramble the results here today on saturday, august 13, 2011. i'm coming to you from ames, iowa, on this primetime edition of "the daily rundown." over the next two hours we'll bring you the results from the

straw poll as they come in with a complete analysis of the day's events, all the republican candidates are here today. first here in the nation caucus state, we are awaiting the results, some delay, do to a lot of where-ins. we'll bring them to you as we get them in the next two hours. have a dozehousds of iowaoters about why they should be the one to take on president obama. >> now with obama care everyone is a mannequin. everyone is a puppet having attached to washington, d.c. and being pulled in the way that washington wants you to be pulled. >> and barack obama's rhetoric doesn't pay our mortgage, does it? >> no! >> and barack obama's rhetoric doesn't pay our health care premiums, does it? >> no! >> and barack obama's rhetoric doesn't put our kids through

college and pays the condition, does it? >> no! >> mr. president, get the government off our backs. >> the patriot act is an attack on our liberties and the fourth amendment. it does not solve the problems that we face. we cannot protect lib irty liberty by taking liberty away from the american people. >> i have been criticized because i have not had in direct foreign policy experience. and the guy is we have there now has? >> it is iowa where we are going to see the greatness once again begin. i have always been grateful that i'm an iowan. and i believe it is time to have an iowan in the white house. >> but today it is all about organizing. tonight we are going to see whether michele bachmann can deliver, whether tim pawlenty can cut it, generating

enthusiasm has taken all forms. ron paul's booth called prosperity playground with a giant blow-up slide called the sliding dollar. bachman's n tent had an hour-and-a-half line, some reports say people were looking for food. she continued her pitch up on stage. >> we won't let the next generation down. we, too, will lay it on the line! and in 2012 we will take the country back, so join me as i'm headed over to the voting booth right now. many of you still have not voted. >> of all of the campaigns, no campaign seemed more laser focused on the straw poll than on iowa and michele bachmann. her speech in this arena was about iowa and emphasized iowa roots. the oh speeches were more general, a little more bit of a pitch for all republican voters. you can see the difference bachman was focused on with iowa. now for tonight's ames winner,

tomorrow is at best a split-screen. texas governor rick perry made it clear 1200 miles from here he's officially in the race. in south carolina he announced he's running to get america working again. >> the great country requires a better direction because a renewed nation needs a new president. with the support of my family and unwavering belief in the goodness of america, i the claire to you today as a candidate for president of the united states. >> now perry is in new hampshire this evening. and tomorrow he makes it to iowa. one place he plans to run from is washington. >> america is not broken. washington, d.c., is broken. >> i'll promise you this. i'll work every day to try to make washington, d.c., as inconsequential in your life as

i can. >> interesting choice of words there. inconsequential. that said, i had a smart republican tell me this about rick perry, there are sharp edges to him, meaning this. we'll know in a couple of weeks. he'll take off like a rocket ship or it doesn't take off. but we will know quickly with rick perry. this is not a slow-moving campaign. it is going to be quick. we've got three debates coming up in the next month. this thing will move fast. folks, we are in another gear on this campaign. with me now, the leading conservative voice in the state, outspoken member of the tea par to caucus, congressman steve king from western iowa. thank you for joining us. >> thank you for having me. >> you are not endorsing yet, you are thinking of doing it. when you watched everybody organizes, just on the pure organization front, who has the edge? >> well, we are so close to seeing the results here, this is higher risk, you know. but i would say this, that all

along i have seen that ron paul has been working here for five years with sol bill solid, loyal supporters. this is not a low turnout. nobody dribs it as that. it looks like the parking lot of the iowa state/iowa football game. so it's a good turnout. the energy for the bachmann campaign is there. but tim pawlenty put a lot of organization together over the last couple of years. and i see a lot of the same faces i saw with romney here four years ago wearing tim pawlenty t-shirts. the organization versus energy looks now to be the best bet of the energy to trump the organization. >> well, you have described the top three. everybody seems to say it basketball bachman, pawlenty, paul, some order. when you see rick perry get in today, is he speaking the language you want to hear spoken?

>> well, of course, when i hear him speak that language, i'm not hearing much of that at this point because i've been busy today. we are having a straw poll here in iowa. this is an essential component that links together with the caucus itself. and so if we didn't do the straw poll we wouldn't have the caucus. and i want this caucus to work. and that means candidates need to be here to campaign. the simultaneous announcement of his candidacy, it seems to me that i have the image of ronald reagan being sworn into the presidency with a hostage on the split-screen. we don't need a split-screen today and i would like to see him jump in tomorrow, but today was a bad choice of days. >> i thinker thinking of endorsing over the last few days, is that a factor for you? >> i don't know it diminishes this, but this is an effective straw poll today. >> this will be 20% of the potential turnout of the caucus. >> it is huge. it is successful, but there are

thing that is are more important than the presidency, having the first in the nation caucus so every man and woman can aspire to be president no matter rich or poor. the caucus gives that avenue. look at what mike huckabee did here four years ago finishing second and came out to won the straw poll and won the nomination. it doesn't mean rick perry can't come to iowa and do well. i think he has to work harder and it will take him longer to get traction here because of the timing today. >> what happens if you endorse michele bachmann? it has been described that you are close friends. you are simpatico on issues. why haven't you endorsed her yet? >> part of this process is a widowing process. it is better for the candidates to earn this nomination. it will take them better. you can take the best raw material for president, and she could be the best raw material for president, there are other

competitors in the race, too. the process makes them better. if you pluck them out and sit them in the oval office, they won't be the president they will be after the nomination process. i want to see, we are testing this in a lot of aways. their charisma, their organization ability, fund-raising about and also the stamina to go the distance. so i want this to be a real competition and i'm thinking that maybe some time after labor day i'll be ready when my head and heart come together with a candidate and i'm going to jump in with both feet. >> what did you think of bachmann versus pawlenty? >> i thought it was not a wise tactic to attack michele bachmannn in that way. i thought the instant that happened it was a mistake. i think the final thing she said in the exchange is you gave me a choice between voting to raise taxes and protecting life, i chose life. that was a strong closing statement. >> a powerful statement to republicans. >> powerful statement. it was a great period at the end

of the exchange they had. >> republican steve king from western iowa. a new district there. >> including ames. >> including ames. this is now your district. >> it is all about go cyclones now. >> is that why you are wearing the red? >> fortunate accident today. >> thank you. as you know, we are expecting the straw poll results shortly. we'll bring that to you live as soon as it happens. as you can see, lots of hints about what turnout means today in the special primetime edition of "the daily rundown" live from ames, iowa, on iowa state campus university. in honor of my late grandfather, go cyclones. we'll be right back. almost tastes like one of jack's cereals.

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well, back in ames now where i'm joined by iowa's senior senator, republican chuck grassley. we were just talking off camera, congressman king was on air credit call with governor perry for announcing today. not upset he joined the race but announcing today in what he thought appeared to be an attempt to diminish the importance of the straw poll. what do you think? >> if that was the moment, i would criticize him. but i don't know if there's any connection or not. for me, the more the merrier. it is hard for me to criticize at this point. i would on that specific issue, though. >> when you look today, you walked through the tents today, what stood out to you that sort of -- that you weren't expecting? >> well, i think outrage at the grass roots of america that is

expressed in one-on-one conversation. i haven't -- the speeches by the candidates showed outrage. the average iowan is very quiet in how they approach split call issues they feel strongly about, but there's an outrage for the president's discredit to economic and fiscal policies. >> how many familiar faces did you see at an iowa republican event and how many new faces? >> i guess i was surprised by the large number of young people i saw here. that's significant. >> more ron paul than anybody else? he had a big following on college campuses, in general. >> yeah, i don't know whether i can put it up against a specific candidate or not, but just a large number of young people turned out and young married people and couples turning out. >> what is it about the significance of this serving as a win knowing process.

fair is fair and candidates are made or broken here today? >> yeah. particularly if you have low financing, if you have big financing and you come in fourth or fifth, you can continue and see how you do in other states. but if you are of limited finances available and don't show up strongly here, you are in trouble. >> i noticed in the speeches today there was a difference between michele bachmann's speech and everybody else. michele bachmann's speech was jose i'm an iowan. more effective than the general speech everyone else was using today? >> i think that iowans appreciate people proud of their iowa roots and she was born in iowa, but i think that people want answers to the problems that face this nation. the economic, the lack of jobs, the attitude that americans are no longer a unique and exceptional nation. the weakening of the international affairs, i think

that's what people are really interested in. >> all right. strategically, rick perry's entry into the race, does that mean that mitt romney needs to spend more time here in iowa? >> i advised romney when he came to my office three weeks ago what he did about the straw poll didn't bother me, but i said if he wants to be president of the united states and get some or a start in iowa like most presidents do, he needs to compete for delegates. >> do you think he'll do that? >> i believe he will. i think it is a matter of resources. he spent a lot of money here four years ago. >> he has the most resources. >> that's true, he spent a little money but it was wasted. >> the economy of iowa would like it differently. >> we would like to enhance our income, obviously. >> senator grassley, good the see you. exciting day here. thank you for coming on. >> thank you. talking about turnout. we just learned herman cain gave away three slices of prison

tpizza today. ron paul gave away 4,000 t-shirts. you are watching rundown" live from ames, iowa. since 1848, how many times has the state of iowa voted for the loser in the presidential race? tweet me the answer @chucktodd or @daily rundown. we'll have the answer and much more coming up "the daily rundown" live from ames, iowa. on our car insurance. great! at progressive, you can compare rates side by side, so you get the same coverage, often for less. wow! that is huge! [ disco playing ] and this is to remind you that you could save hundreds!

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well, we told you it would be a split-screen day in republican politics. you are looking at live pictures outside of new hampshire.

this is the area with rick perry just arriving on a private plane after announcing his candidacy for president this afternoon in south carolina. he and michele bachmann will square off at a fund-raising event. the two candidates who have the most to lose today each argued they are the best to take on the president. >> from one iowan to another, iowa will be the pace car, if you will, to set the tone and set the pace for bringing this country back to its greatness. >> we need to not just preach to the choir and make sure we have a candidate who can win in places like kansas or oklahoma or some of the other great states around this country. >> all right. so which message did iowa straw poll voters buy? i'm joined by split call analyst charlie cook, editor of the cook political report. charlie, when you go to a straw

poll, just an overview, compare this to the big one in '99. we were at the one in '95 with the famous tie, what did you think of this one? >> well, i think this is a big one. we have seen up to 24,000, but it is like the weather, a beautiful day. you and i remember four years ago it was hot out here. >> not as fun. but today is a day where every campaign knows the exact number of votes. the man who ran huckabee's campaign four years ago, he could tell you by ten votes how many votes he had. 00 with home-schoolers, and this many with amway. these guys know exactly the number of votes today. what do you feel like you are learning? >> some of them do, but i don't have a handle on how well bachmann did.

my hunch is very well, but i don't know. i don't know if they know because i think she gets more spontaneous support. i think mike huckabee -- they knew the names of every person showing up for them. i don't know if the bachman east bachmann people do. >> i'm joined my robert tranum outside. what are you feeling and seeing? what did you feel like was different than you expected? >> going into this, i thought this was ron paul's race to lose. being inside the coliseum appeared to be that perhaps michele bachmann may pull this out. i'm told there are still people standing in line voting for her. the enthusiasm clearly was on her side with a lot of applause. and herman cain had a lot of sustained applause, but i think at the end of the day this is ron paul's to lose. >> the biggest thing is the longest acting governor is

announcing he's running for president today. what's your lead tomorrow? >> well, we are doing a split-lead. charlie, what's your lead tomorrow? >> oh, gosh, i guess it would be x wins, perry jumps in the field. i mean, it is a bi-headline. we'll see a fight to the finish for the right two-thirds of the republican party. the question is, does romney have any company on the other side of the party? >> i want to follow-up on rick perry a minute. robert, this is for you. charlie, first you. i had a really smart conservative republican friend of ours, he is a well-defined guy, meaning you know his edges, you will know -- hang on, robert, i'll go to charlie. we'll know in two weeks whether this is working. >> whether he's accident-prone or self-assured, he has never had this scrutiny before. we'll see how he does.

i think he and bachmann are formidable people with good instincts. both know what they are doing. >> the name we are not talking about is mitt romney. how nervous are they of rick perry? >> i think he is nervous right now. as you mentioned, he flue into the state a couple minutes ago. rick perry the elephant in the room and becomes the frontrunner because of what he brings to this race. a lot of conservatives are not happy with the choice of candidates they have right now. they never trusted mitt romney from the beginning in 2008. they never trusted him as the governor of massachusetts going back and forth. they still don't understand romney care. so it appears rick perry may be the guy that can take them to the finish line, at least that's what i'm hearing on the grassroots level. >> is this as simple as head versus heart if it becomes romney/perry? >> yeah, republicans have to

decide, do they want to win or do they want to do what feels really, really good. and i think that a romney-type person, romney, pawlenty, somebody like that would be better positioned to take advantage of allowing the economy to throw the president out. i think perry or bachmann would be, do i want to take a stand, do i want to make a statement? i think it is two different trajectories. >> which one can just have a little bit of the other side to prove -- we saw romney show a bit of edge for the first time the other day at the state fair. and maybe perry can appease the wall street journal later to turn a page. >> that's true, but i think he and bachmann are going after each other big time. they are occupying the same space. >> robert traynor, charlie cook, the man, always good to be here in iowa. the only person he brought is his kids to a vacation in the

straw poll in ames, iowa. much more live from ames, including my pick for today's fried food of the day. and the straw poll results. you are watching a special edition of "the daily rundown" here on msnbc. catch up with us every weekday morning at 9:00 a.m. eastern, 8:00 a.m. here in ames on msnbc. first, ever wonder what the candidates talk about backstage at these things? ali wineberg caught this exchange from the golf carts getting the candidates from one ground to the next. >> can i borrow a golf cart? you brought them all up. there weren't any left. >> are you serious? >> i'm dead serious. there were none left. >> i got a double the salaries of the people working for me. >> that's right. i'll be fit and in shape. merica. so we're celebrating the honey sweetness, crunchy oats and... hey! don't forget me!! honey nut cheerios. make it your favorite too!

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well, welcome back to this special primetime edition of "the daily rundown."

we are here in ames with a result. we'll have a five-minute warning. they are tabulating now. but as charlie put it, it is a by for kated situation. perry is speaking in new hampshire, his first stop after announcing in south carolina. we are hearing -- we are hearing a little bit over the speaker here about the fact that we'll get results soon. not sure if that's supposed to be the five-minute warning. i'm going to bring in our political analyst and former chairman of the republican party, michael steele. chairman steele, i'm glad to be talking to somebody here in ames, not in south carolina. i mean that, what is tomorrow's lead for you, republican-party activist, is it the longest serving governor, active governor in the second largest state announcing or the winner of the straw poll, what is it? what is tomorrow's lead in the republican party presidential campaign? >> to be honest with you, i think it will be more about perry than the results here in iowa.

i think -- among the activists, i've been e-mailing and texting with current members of the committee as well as former members and activists, and it is game on. i think what folks are sort of gearing up for now is -- you have already referenced in seeing a little bit of this energy, this energy percolating beneath the surface in anticipation, but charlie cook makes a good point. you did as well with the source you spoke to that with perry you are either going to burn fast and hard or you are going to sort of fizzle. and so we'll see whether or not he can take the heat of the scrutiny of a presidential campaign and really bring the game to the table for mitt and for bachmann and pawlenty. i personally don't any think any of the guys should be out of the race. we have designed the system to give folks a little running room. so i'm hoping that regardless of the results today that the candidates consider sticking through at least the first round

in january. >> money is everything for a lot of these candidates. >> money is everything. >> some can live off the land -- do you think tim pawlenty can, quote, live off the land if he's not the winner here? >> yeah, i do. i really do. i think that because there are so many unknowns here still. we don't know how these candidates -- when we get into the fall and folks pay more attention, particularly the activists not a part of this event today sitting at home with their own barbecue right now, who focus then to see, let me hear a little more about tim pawlenty and rick perry. there are still opportunity there is. donors are going to be concerned about the longevity of this, but you can live off this because it is designed for a little while. the goal was to give the little guy a chance to actually compete a little longer and to be out there a little bit more with the message that may resonate. we don't know whether sarah

palin jumps in this after labor day, how perry does between now and december, there are a lot of factors there still to consider. >> well, that's why i'm a big defender of the small states getting in first, because it does allow more of an open process. but michael steele, i want to ask you this, give advice to rick perry, he has to go zero to 60 now. when you get in late, you don't have the luxury of the slow build. three dates after labor day. he has to be in all the debates, don't you think? >> absolutely he does. you can't go with the first and third one and skip the second. he has to be in the game all the way through. you know, it is like congressman king and chuck grasslee said, you have to come back and prove yourself to the folks here in iowa. you weren't here this past week. you weren't here today. you have to come back. he has to put all of that to the table for himself and it starts

with the debates and he has to come strong. >> michael steele, former chairman of the rnc, and msnbc political analyst. good to have you on this saturday. now back to the matter at hand here in ames, iowa. the iowa straw poll. michele bachmann may very well win, but she is also one of the candidates with a lot to lose. the minnesota congresswoman addressed the crowd here a few hours repeatedly reminding them she was not born in minnesota but iowa. >> i was born in waterloo and born and raised in waterloo and cedar falls. and in this wonderful part of our state, what i saw were reasonable, fair-minded people who loved me, poured themselves into me, and that's the voice that i learned growing up. >> joining me now is jamie

norvegraw who has been with her for a few weeks now since we deployed this msnbc team. jamie, what's been interesting about the bachmann folks today is they seem -- everybody that's participating here wants to win, but there's a sense of urgency to her campaign that's even greater, i think, than tim pawlenty. >> that's right, chuck. even she has said there's a disadvantage to having joined the race so late. she joined it in late june with an announcement in waterloo. and so they have been pretty upfront object that. they would like to say they are cautiously optimistic about today. but what she has on her side is that she connects with people, is that people recognize that she's the real thing. that's what she says. >> now you have done some impressive reporting about tomorrow's event. you know, this is the start for michele bachmann. it is as if they realized rick perry getting in, this is a big moment for her. she is on "meet the press" and

doing a lot of interviews the next 24 hours, but she accepted a late invitation to this waterloo event tomorrow night. what have you learned -- why did she accept it late? what happened here? >> right. well, she was invited to the dinner, it's the blackhawk county gop dinner, and what's interesting is blackhawk county includes the town of waterloo, her hometown. she was invited six weeks ago. governor perry was invited three weeks ago. governor perry accepted and the bachmann campaign only accepted several nights ago on tuesday night with a late-night phone call to the party. now, two sources at the party tell me that the rsvp was conditional. that's the best way to put it. the offer was, we would love to come, we care about michelle's hometown of water lou, but only to come if she wins the straw poll. >> and the bachmann campaign denies there was the conditional, but this comes from

two solid republicans that you talked to, is that right? >> that's right. that's right, chuck. that's right, chuck. the bachmann campaign tells me that no conversation of the sort took place because there's simply a matter of scheduling. there were pre-existing commitments to scare away. all along the way, the bachmann campaign said she cared about this by showing up to the dipper. i know has a reporter i in ed to change my travel plans. >> our nbc news campaign here. jamie, see you along the way. >> thank you. now to the man casting the long shadow of today's straw poll in iowa. texas governor rick perry in new hampshire today after making it official in south carolina. he announced he's in the

republican presidential race. he made the statement in charleston and had this to say what he'll do if elected president. >> i'll promise you this. i will work every day to try to make washington, d.c., as inconsequence shl in your life as i can. >> governor perry also released a campaign ad today. here's a portion of it. >> record debt and the president's refusal to control spending led to the nation's credit rating being downgraded for the first time in history. but hope is on the horizon, not the empty rhetoric of hope, but a record that gives us hope. that leader, rick perry. america's jobs governor. >> let's just go to this. we are about to bring you -- we are about to give you matt straun here. the chairman of the republican

party. he's about to make an announcement of the results. we'll bring it to you now. i also want to make sure before we announce the results of the straw poll to thank iowa secretary of state ben shields and his hard-working staff. at this time secretary of state schultz will deliver the straw poll results to me. with 16,892 iowans voting, the winner of the 2011 iowa

straw poll is congresswoman michele bachmann. [ cheers and applause ] >> as soon as we get the full numbers and the full results of the order we will bring them to you. but you just heard the announcement there. congresswoman michele bachmann indeed did win, just under 17,000 iowa republicans made it here. i am joined now by andrea mitchell. the hints as the afternoon went on, as more people showed up, okay, the bigger the turnout the better for bachman. that indeed is what happened. >> we saw a big turnout, almost 17,000 votes unofficially. you actually brought the first news of this when you said there was a long line outside her tent. she rocketed in making it

official in new hampshire in the debate, of course, and having a strong performance there. then she wasn't quite as strong but sitthy sympathy for the way she was treated here. i think she's got a lot of strength going forward. of course, the big story in our split-screen saturday is that rick perry jumped in today. he could be a big threat to her mo them tun. >> steve king, clearly he was sympathetic to backmann, he laid it out saying low turnout is good for ron paul. he can identify the numbers of supporters he had. between pawlenty and bachmann it was organization versus enthusiasm. the two were kind of exclusive. we are hearing the ron paul people that are upset they didn't win. >> we don't know officially who came in second or third. >> the first street boys are on that. obviously a blou blow for tim

pawlenty. >> he could be in for a rough night. going forward he needs to get some money. he could sort of try to scale it back and live off the land, but that's tough. >> i want to bring you news and reporting. there's michele bachmann there. about tomorrow night's event, michele bachmann was a late rsvp to the republican dinner after rick perry accepted it. he learned when she was invited to this six weeks ago she said the campaign wanted to make a conditional if they won the straw poll they would come. if they didn't -- blackhawk county didn't want the conditional and put it out to perry. bachmann accepted. they see who is in the way to get to romney. it is rick perry. >> rick perry has the evangelical support, conservative support. she has experience as a tax lawyer and congresswoman. he has experience for 26 years. >> 26 years in office. >> of course, the downside of

that is that he has 26 years of consecutive office. unlike mitt romney, he can't say he has run a real business. and that is a very strong narrative right now, especially this year. >> steve king was pretty offended rick perry announced today. he said why not on friday or sunday. this is iowa. we do know iowa republicans are offended that rick perry stepped on this a little bit. >> there are. and this is the organizational strength that builds the caucus. it is basically 10% of the caucus. >> and a big fund-raiser for the party. >> that said, when you talk to others in the party, i think that if rick perry builds momentum and looks like a real serious candidate against barack obama, they will forgive very quickly. >> rick perry now says he'll make iowa -- he is putting equal focus on the early stage. pressure on mitt romney to play in iowa now?

>> i think there is. we saw this earlier this week. he can say, i don't do straw polls, but now he has to take it seriously. then what does that do for john huntsman who ignored iowa? >> who? >> i know. i know. >> andrea mitchell, thank you for being on. we have had the results come in. we'll get the full results as they come in. we can bring them to you now. read them off here. paul was second, just under 150 votes here. >> bachman another vote is -- that is very close. he is still a factor. >> a distant third was tim pawlenty. >> he will say i came in third. santorum, 1657. kain, 1456. romney, 567. >> he was on the ballot. he was on the ballot. >> next is 385, he was on the ball loath, gingrich.

huntsman, 69. mccotter, 35. we'll find out about the write-ins. >> rick perry had the write-in. we'll recap a second. 6892, which is big. 3,000 more than last time. bachman, 4823, that's 4,823. we are talking small numbers here, but big in iowa terms. >> paul, 4,671. very close. >> 4,671. 293, 2293, pawlenty. cain, 1456. romney, 567. gingrich, 385. huntsman, 69. mccotter, 35. >> well, a tough number there for tim pawlenty. not to even be a close third. but energy-wise, the results matched what we saw outside. paul and bachmann had the energy here today. >> ron paul has bragging rights,

a committed base. >> absolutely. andrea mitchell, we have to keep covering this because there's a lot to go to. you are watching a special primetime edition of "the daily rundown." we'll be right back. just one phillips' colon health probiotic cap a day helps defends against occasional constipation, diarrhea, gas and bloating. with three strains of good bacteria

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welcome back to a special primetime edition of "the daily rundown." the results are in. michele bachmann first, ron paul, a very close second. only less than 200 votes behind bachmann in somewhat of a distant third coming in, rick pawlenty. i'm joined by andrea mitchell and former republican national committee chairman michael steele. just to update you, we calculated the write-ins.

our friends haven't yet, but we know the total number of write-in votes, 836. it is likely a good chunk of those are going to be for rick perry. if it is that case, i would put him above rid romney. does that matter to you? >> not really. for a number of reasons. i think that perry and romney not being in this thing, you know, it doesn't really matter where they come in because they seriously didn't look at this as the fight for them. so it is just a matter of numbers. it is showing some level of support certainly among iowans for rick. the numbers will be 700 or so for him out of the 800. but for romney, the point was made earlier by andrea, he has game on for him now. he has to step up and focus on february when iowa comes back into focus. between now and then, you have to lay the ground game and make your case because perry is not

going to give you any room. and bachmann now has been emboldened going into the next four or five months. so it will be a pretty exciting race. and again, i go back to my point, tim pawlenty is not out of this yet. i know 2200 doesn't seem like a big number, but third place for someone like tim pawlenty is still good to give him room to maneuver. it gives him a chance to go to donors and continue to fuel the fire while he tries to also live off the land and push this thing as long as and hard as he can. this will be competitive going into the fall. >> michael steele, trying to be diplomatic about tim pawlenty -- >> he's been consistent. >> i know he has. >> this shouldn't be the end of the road for anyone because anything can happen. >> right. but let's talk realistically about the types of candidates that live off the land and those who doesn't. live off land, we mean those who can do it, flying a lot of southwest and get a lot of

grassroot donors. santorum, fourth place. he's the guy that i feel could live off the land for a while. tim pawlenty is not the type of organization like that. he was building the big donor organization. not trying to live off the land. that's why i'm wondering how long he can do this. >> what if he were to treat this as an iowa governor's race and just move here and focus on iowa. pull a chris dodd and make a difference that way. he can't run a national campaign this way. >> the other thing about pawlenty, living off the land-type of candidates have one or two issues they are so passionate about. that they are defined by that issue. what is that with pawlenty? and that does seem to be missing when you are trying to do a live-off-the-land strategy. >> a message.

it doesn't seem different from the other republican messages. he doesn't have the quality that the voters see in michele bachmann and ron paul with his very committed, strong grassroots base. we saw evidence of that everywhere here today. people were saying, don't discount ron paul. he had a lot of signs. people were coming out. >> michael steele, when it comes to pic rick perry, we were talking about it earlier. even though a lot of people aren't familiar with him, do you see too much of bush in him or not? that is sort of the cheap, democratic criticism of him. he's bush-lite or whatever, but is there too much bush in him? >> look, i'll tell you, here's the trick. close your eyes when he speaks sometimes. and you will swear you hear bush. for me that's not a negative. so, i mean, it is not a negative. i know a lot of my friends on the left look at it that way, but i think to the extent that there is some bush, there is

stated purpose and goal. he'll look you square in the eye and tell you what he's going to do. he is not one to back down. he's led for 26 years in some good, strong positions in texas. and has led his state through some difficult times in the last few years as well. so he's the model in terms of what he's done there as governor. and i think that he has an opportunity to sort of transcend sort of the texas/bush things put on him. but he does have that tone. for me it is nice because i like bush, what can i say? >> michael steele, former chairman of the republican national committee and msnbc political analyst. andrea mitchell, host of "mitchell reports." >> what fun is this. >> we have another hour to go. the moderator of "meet the press" is coming up, david gregory. we'll reset the table. our exclusive guest will be michele bachmann, who is doing a bunch of interviews tomorrow.

coming up, david gregory, stick with us for another hour. the ames straw poll results show. the special edition of "the daily rundown." you can catch us every day on msnbc. we'll be right back. my doctor told me calcium

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with 16,892 iowans voting, the winner of the 2011 iowa straw poll is congresswoman michele bachmann. >> and there it is. a big turnout, not the big, but the second biggest in ames straw poll history. enthusiasm can trump. this is game on, folks.

the longest serving governor of the second largest state jumps into the presidential race today sending seismic shockwaves across the political landscape. the feeling out here in iowa, the critical day of the ames straw poll. it is saturday, august 13th. i'm chuck todd in ames, iowa. the next hour we'll bring you poll results, expert analysis and how the race changed before my eyes. i'll welcome david gregory to join us now. >> it is early summer testing. you say enthusiasm -- i think enthusiasm begets organization. i think that's what michele bachmann benefited from. as i've been going around, chuck, michele bachmann is in sync with a lot of the mood of the primary voter on the republican side right now. they are enthusiastic and angry. they want to send a message to president obama and she seemed to capture that in a great way

with poise and a strong message. still a lot of vulnerabilities down the road for her, but in terms of capturing the lightning, she's done it. >> our campaign had news about how michele bachmann was waivering on accepting the invitation tomorrow night to speak in waterloo, iowa. rick perry accepted and so did michele bachmann. she looked like she was about to get her shot at romney, perry just trumped her. >> no question about it. governor perry has all the about to get attention from the press to raise a lot of money, which he's been amazing at as texas governor with not a lot of barriers in the way to giving to gubernatorial candidates as we know, but he has the tea party credentials with the anti-washington sentiment. this is a huge ideological debate in government in the country right now, and it happens against an economy in great disstress. that's angering the voter on the republican side and

conservatives around the country. they are both going to be vying for the space, but i also don't want to cast aside mitt romney here. he didn't have a strong showing. and it is striking last go-around he said, if you can't compete in iowa, how can you compete in the heartland? he won it and was on record saying that. he's a strong frontrunner with the right message and a lot of money. you know, we haven't begun the real voting yet. we are still talking about poll position in terms of how they are jockeying for organization and space. he's certainly earning his spot in the race. >> you covered president bush for eight years. i know it is the cheap democratic talking point, rick perry is just another bush-lite, whatever. you watched bush for years and perry, how much bush go you see in him? and remind folks of the bush world and perry world tension? >> it was perry who campaigned for giuliani saying president bush was not a strong fiscal

conservative. they don't like that much. there's a lot of familiarity. and sometimes that breeds contempt among political strategists. two guys from west texas that sound a bit alike. they have similar approaches, but, in fact, governor perry is more conservative and is positioning himself in a much different way than was governor bush at the time in texas and certainly on the national stage. one thing that is important, chuck, when governor bush was campaigning in south the south, the country was better. this is a dark period. people are pessimistic and angry. they don't like what's going on in washington. a much different backdrop for candidates now on the republican side to rail against the status quo. >> bush and gore tried like heck to sound like each other. similar campaigns at some points, sometimes you couldn't tell -- perry/obama is a sharp contrast. >> perry talked about succeeding

from the union. do you think that's extreme? people on the other side think introducing health care reform for the whole country is akin to european socialism. again, that role of government in our lives. that debate is huge. and if you have been listening as we have today to the speeches on this stage behind us, that is the theme, that bipds all the candidates together. but i also think we need to say about tim pawlenty, i think this is real trouble for him. he does seem like he's pressing out there on these issues, even though he was strong in the anti-government/anti-obama theme today, but how does he get attention and raise money. >> he acted like he knew this was a do or die moment. michele bachmann tomorrow, she's got to set herself up as her versus romney with rick perry standing in the way. >> i have to point out, this is not just politics in our interview tomorrow, this is an opportunity to talk about where she stands. >> we have not dug in, and you are going to dig in tomorrow. >> can't wait for it. >> thank you. >> joining me now with more

perspecti perspective, mark murray, all right, this went as all the iowa experts told us. paul and bachmann were the ones they felt had the energy and momentum and it was bachmann, paul, one, two. >> absolutely. michele bachmann's victory is impressive here. we knew she going in needed a win to maintain being the iowa front-runner and she did. and get this, she did it as being a candidate for a month and a and a half. he didn't have the organization going in this way tim pawlenty did who has been running for president since 2009. so that was impressive. we also know attending a lot of the straw polls in the past that ron paul knows how to work the straw polls, knows how to do well in them, her victory is impressive. you and david were just talking about tim pawlenty, and what really struck me about the numbers that both paul and bachmann more than doubled

pawlenty's vote total. that's a troubling thing for the minnesota governor. >> mark murray, my partner in crime, keep going. read more on msnbc.com. we have been constantly -- it is a wire service for political junkies. mark, get back there. >> thank you, chuck. all right. joining me now, republican presidential candidate, former pennsylvania senator, rick santorum. santorum, senator, 10%. that's fourth place, pretty good. you were hoping to get there. you were outspent by a lot of folks. i look at the number and see somebody that -- you can sit here and i can say you made progress. >> i feel really great. we were hoping -- we were hoping for top five. and we thought we could beat herman cain who has been ahead of us in the polls. if we can be close to the big three, the folks who spent literally millions in iowa, that would be maybe something more than we would hope for. that's what we hoped for. we got what we hoped for. >> you have been a principle

conservative moving message for 20 years. off lot of people running on the same message. there are a lot of people standing in your way that you want to leapfrog ahead of who are sharing the same message. rick perry also wants to appeal to a rick santorum. it's a crowded space there. >> i would just say i have done it. michele bachmann, i love her positions, but if you look where she's been and what she's done, there really isn't -- the contrast is clear. i have gone to washington, d.c., held conservative positions and principal positions to get things done on national security, big things done on medical report cultural issues. >> only you and speaker gingrich answered that question the other night, how do you get something through the reality of washington? not the washington you want to live in, but the washington that you guys -- that everybody has to govern in. you seemed to answer that you got to learn to work across the

aisle. >> look, the bottom line is that the two things you have to f th and partial birth and some of the things with respect to israel, i went to the american people. we had big public issues we dealt with. you have to have the public behind you to do these things. then you have to work with folks on the other side of the aisle and say, what are the principal things i want to accomplish? where can i not compromise? where can i compromise because nobody goes into any negotiation, any bill, and gets 100% of what they want. it just -- in any walk of life, you have to look at, well, whether can you compromise and not give up your principles? we were able to do that effectively. we have some people in this race who are just saying, unless i get everything i want, then i'm no. >> i want to ask about that because one of the striking moment os of the debate is when

all eight hand went up on a 10-1 spending cut to taxes issue. really? >> yeah. >> you wouldn't take that deal? >> the deal, you have to understand, there are other things other than tax increases that the folks on the other side want. what spending cuts you have, how you do it? there are all sorts of things in ideal. >> i know details matter, but ted, if the ray show is 10-1 -- you are saying that is totically unacceptable? >> again, what we are talking about here is if you are talking about getting rid of -- for example, getting rid of all subsidies for energy companies, and just saying -- get rid of all the energy subsidies. >> a tax loophole. >> to me, that's a public policy that the government shouldn't have out there. now if that's part of the 10-1, that's different than what most of us assumed would be, that what the president wants to do

is raise taxes on certain individuals. that's been his line in the sand. i think there was an assumption that that's what the question was about, giving the president his high-income tax, i will not compromise on that, but certainly compromise and simplify the code and get rid of some of the things where the government is saying, we want you to do these things and we'll create incentury tys. the government should get out of the business and that would be a place where we could potentially see, quote, revenues, but for me it is getting government out of the business. >> what are your markers now going forward that say, i know i can keep going if i do x? >> i look at it this way, we are going to go back to pennsylvania and just have to pull out of there a couple weeks ago, we were dead even with president barack obama in the state. nobody else. mitt romney is tied. nobody else is close. >> that also said you would be close in the senate race. does that matter to you?

>> well, my sense is we need to go back there and let the folks in pennsylvania -- we are for real. of the three people, the top three or four people, three of whom can win the iowa caucuses. and we were one of those top three. if you know, three tickets gets punched out of iowa. we feel -- >> you are in this race to get third place minimum for the caucus night. >> well, look at it, we have been out here knocking on doors and not getting a whole lot of attention. with all due respect -- >> i have heard this from a lot of the republicans that you are doing it the old school way. >> i kept saying it from the beginning, we have a caucus strategy, not a straw poll strategy. what this caucus or straw poll for us was to give everybody here a little barometer, that there is a pulse. in fact, organizations are set up in 40 to 50 counties right now. and it is all the little counties, everybody is paying attention to the little counties, but in a caucus the little counties are where the republican votes are at the

caucus. and we have good organizations there. we have people committed to us there. like i said, we have a caucus strategy in the middle of it. >> senator santorum, you are coming across excited. >> i feel great. >> congratulations. up next on the primetime edition of "the daily rundown." congresswoman debbie wasserman schultz is going to join me. she's been in ames. woman: day care can be expensive.

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together we are going to make barack obama a one-term president! >> we have a severe efficiency of leadership crisis.

>> we cannot afford four more years of this leadership. >> mr. president, get the government off our backs. >> as you might imagine, president obama's name came up a few times as the republican candidates addressed iowa voters this afternoon. president obama is coming to iowa in a couple of days. joining me now, chairwoman of the dnc and congresswoman from the great state of florida, debbie wasserman-schultz. what did you see here today? >> great to be with you, chuck. >> a lot of republicans feel as if the enthusiasm they saw here today, even though the major candidates of romney and perry didn't play, they still got a huge turnout and feel pretty energized. are you nervous? >> no. i'm not nervous. beyond the healthy respect that you always have to have for the american voter, this is going to

be a vigorous robust campaign no matter who the republican party decides to nominate. but i'll tell you, my overall view having been here for the last couple of days is that this is the modern-day republican party. whereas before you could say, you could chalk up ron paul showing at the iowa straw poll as being an anomaly and just someone who has a nice popular following. michele bachmann and ron paul represent the extreme right-wing fringe, which is the core of the republican party today. so this is not just an anomaly as a result. this is who they are. and that's far different and far out of step from mainstream america. >> it sounds like you believe that this campaign in 2012 might be as much about running against the republican party as it is about making the case for why president obama needs another four years. is that fair? this will be more about -- >> no, we are going to make a

vigorous case, chuck. no, we are going to make a vigorous case for barack obama's accomplishments, show what he has been able to do from taking our economy where it was at the preface to disaster. now 17 months of job growth, 2.4 million sector jobs. we have passed health care reform. barack obama demonstrated courage in taking on the insurance industry, big banks n taking on the special interests and what the tea party and the republicans have shown us here is that they will rigidly adhere to tea-party dogma and protect the special interests and the most fortunate americans. i look forward to that debate and comparison throughout this campaign in the next 15 months. >> i have noticed a pattern with the dnc and that i see a lot more attack press releases or web videos against mitt romney than any other candidate. my spine says, that means you

guys assume you are taking romney on or fair he'll be the nominee. is that a fair assessment? >> not at all. i have to tell you that in looking at the collection of candidates that they have, chuck, it doesn't matter who their nominee is. they all are busy trying to outwing the other. even with the most recent of questions, would you support 10-1 spending cuts to revenue to solve our nation's deficit problem long-term. they all said no. and that is not going to resonate with the middle class and working families. they all support medicare as we know it and support privatizing social security. in a swing state like i represent, the state of florida, those views are not going to be appealing at all. and they are certainly not appealing to americans who just want us to come together and compromise and work together to solve problems. >> what do you tell your

democratic friends who have been quietly hand ringing about this state of president obama right now, both in the polls and sort of this sense of nervousness about where things stand? >> well, i don't really -- the text is that a healthy republican for the american voter, not taking things for granted is kit credit call when running a campaign. barack obama understands he has to vigorously campaign to be sent back to the white house to continue to do the good work he's been doing. we are going to run the most presidential campaign that american history has ever seen. >> debbie wasserman-schultz, thank you. we should create an ames straw poll on your side. are you going to do this four

years from now? >> i think i'm going to take that idea back to rod smith to see what we can scare up in florida. >> it is a fun event. i'm telling you. >> this was pretty fun. and not a bad idea, especially in a state like florida, which is an important lynch pin in the election. i have to show a bit of the florida colors, chuck. >> there it is. just don't show the blue and orange. much more to come on this special primetime edition of "the daily rundown." we are live from ames, iowa. what's next? mike murphy, one of the smartest men out there. he'll break it down for me. we'll be right back.

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i think it was brilliant. to turn around and do this the

same day that you got an ames iowa poll really lets us know it is game time for all the candidates. i love that. >> well, she said it. game on time. that was south carolina governor nikki haley, one of the newest candidates in the race, rick perry. mike murphy is an msnbc political analyst. and he's a political reporter for politico. mike murphy, let's start with you. we want to diminish them while pump it up, but we did learn something. what did you learn? >> we learned who has the organizational edge at the early stages of iowa. for candidates breaking through in iowa, if they can't do it here, only a small percentage of the voters, the bad news is poison for fund-raising. >> explain why rick santorum's fourth place is better than third place. >> we are not far from nevada, iowa. >> it is nevada, brother. you pronounce it nevada.

>> i have been here too long. here's the problem for tim pawlenty. he came here as watershed place, iowa. if he doesn't show results, even as something not as indicative as the straw poll, you have no money, you have no campaign. so it will be a tough phone call to the finance committee to find the dough to keep running. >>on thank jonathan martin, what are the pawlenty members saying? >> they are still going to stay in. they noted this is a long campaign. we are just at the beginning. they are going to gut this thing out. but the problem as mike knows, this is a financial issue for him. he is spent about a million bucks leading up to this thing. and the question is now for tim pawlenty, does he have the money to go forward? it can be a desire, but we don't know exactly how much money he has. coming up in third place with a

distant third, it will be awfully tough for him with perry getting in this race today to make the case that there's a space for him, a fourth candidate in the race, still. >> jonathan, stunning for me to see -- i felt as if the bachmann folks embraced the urgency of winning the straw poll. they seemed more focused on the message of iowa, iowa, iowa. her video was on iowa roots less than it was about anything else. >> if you go back to her first ad, chuck, and her announcement, even, late june in waterloo, everything has been about iowa. she's a native. it is aimed at the heart of the state, the sort of native-girl done good. it was very effective. look, she also is very much in the moment. she's an outspoken tea party leader at a moment when fiscal issues are really reigning supreme. this debt vote and the debate ahead of the debt vote worked great for her.

the timing was fantastic. don't forget, the straw poll is dominated by cultural conservatived. conservatives. she had a lot of home schoolers and pastors waiting in the line for her today. that was the key to victory. >> mike murphy, your thoughts on rick perry. >> last year rick perry came from 20 votes behind in the republican race in texas to destroi kaley hutchinson. he's a barracuda in republican primaries and a tornado. she has a connection to the state with a tea party message, but there's another cheeseburger on the menu that looks similar. rick perry will give her a hell of a race. if he beats her here, he can beat her in the southern states. we have to see how he performs, but rick perry is a tough candidate. >> would you advise romney to come back to iowa here? >> this is the wrong terrain for him. i would tell him this. engage perry now.

don't wait around for new hampshire for the tidal wave to build. go for him now and take an argument of winnability to him. rick perry in the general election, not sure republicans want it. >> mike murphy, more from you on "meet the press" tomorrow. john martin, we'll see you tomorrow as well on "meet the press." coming up, much more live from ames, iowa. you are watching a special edition of "the daily rundown." catch me every day at 9:00 a.m. right here on msnbc, where we are the place for politics for a reason, folks. we are still here. we'll be right back. ♪

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reacted to her victory. >> what we saw happen today is this is the very first step toward taking the white house in 2012. and you have just sent a message that barack obama will be a one-term president. this was a wonderful down payment on taking the country back. and it started in iowa. you have done it, iowa. thank you. god bless you all. god bless america. >> well, it is game on for michele bachmann. she's going to be doing a lot of interviews tomorrow, including sitting down with david gregory on "meet the press." then she is staying in iowa where she meets a new opponent. one-on-one the two appear back again together in waterloo, iowa. rick perry is coming to town. michele bachmann, it is a whole new reset of the presidential race.

michele bachmann, a narrow victory, getting 29% of the vote over ron paul at 28. tim pawlenty in third. after officially announcing in south carolina he's entering the republican presidential race, texas governor rick perry quickly headed to the first in the nation primary state of new hampshire. there he met and greeted voters at a house party in greenland, new hampshire. he also addressed those gathered taking aim at the president. >> we'll limit and we'll simplify our taxes. we will repeal this president's misguided, one-size-fits-all government-run health care plan. >> kristen killinger is in new hampshire live from the house party there in greenland where governor perry just finished speaking. well, he took some questions from those gathered. what did you learn?

>> hi, chuck. that's right. he did. he talked about his immigration policy, that was one of the big questions that was asked. he said, look, in order to secure our borders we have to have boots on the ground. he also took some questions on foreign policy and said he'll be much stronger on foreign policy than president obama. not a surprise because this whole day has been about drawing contrasts with the president. we took an unofficial poll of people leaving this meet-and-greet. a lot of people said they liked what they heard. one person said to me, he's going to need to get rid of the good-old boy stuff if he wants to win the presidency. either way you look at it, this is shaking up the republican field. he's already running a close second in some polls to mitt romney. he is a fiscal conservative, a social conservative. that's a real problem for michelle back man and tim pawlenty. and again today in his speech when he announced his presidency, he painted himself as someone who would be advocating small government, low taxes, someone who is going to

be the anti-president barack obama, if you will. his biggest challenge right now, chuck, might just be he's untested on the national stage. people are still getting to know who rick perry is. some people think he's too conservative. folks down in texas who i've been speaking to say he's more conservative than george bush. if george bush was a self-proclaimed uniter, perry is a divider. he doesn't seem compromise as a virtue. we'll see how he's received on the national stage, but here in greenland, a lot of people liked what they heard. >> he could be made in order in a republican primary. we shall see. kristen welker covering rick perry who comes to iowa tomorrow. with me now the man who announced the results less than an hour ago, republican party chairman, mark strassmann. >> four years ago barack obama

launched this enthusiasm on the ground for republicans organizing a general election state. i'm excited to see the enthusiasm in the straw poll. >> an hour ago -- it was announced on a friday or a sunday, but don't step on iowa the way you did today. he says it will affect who he may support. are you upset about this. >> in my conversations with the perry campaign, i'm sure that tomorrow night in waterloo there's a republican who will ask about the situation, but the center has been in iowa. the president will be here the first part of next week, so he would not have made the timing decision if we didn't have the gathering in ames right here. i was driving the political conversation so it does not upset me. i know we'll see rick perry

here. i expect him to have a robust presence here in iowa. >> it was close between ron paul and michele bachmann. describe the paul organization. you are an organizing guy. who is he appealing to? >> congress paul has a following across the country, whether it is the presidential race that is well organized promoting the congressman's constitutional-based philosophy on his policy. coming off his rates last time, he more than doubled what he had in the straw poll last year. it is an organization that you saw the evidence from today. >> tell me how the democrats caucus in iowa and how republicans do. now with pic herry coming, rick perry this much, explain the process and differences between the republicans and democrats?

>> we still believe in the secret ballot in the republican process. >> this is not a raise your hand moment. >> no. not a public statement of support caucus night. then about 1800 caucus locations around the state. really it is gathering with your neighbors and you listen to speeches for the first half hour. each candidate can give a speech on their behalf. then blank pieces of papers are passed around. we have a sequence red, white and blue box. you write the surname and in the back of the room the precinct chair tan lates the results, calls them to headquarters and we announce vote totals. that's the republican process. >> sounds like a firehouse primer to me. we just call it a caucus. >> we don't bind our delegates on iowa caucus night. it is kind of getting into the

weeds of -- >> that matters with this calendar. >> it most certainly does. we bind our delegates later in the state convention in june. so we do discuss other activities in electing precinct people. >> you like delegates at the next round? >> exactly. they will first go to the county and then the state. it is something that requires a time investment. >> when do delegates get back? it is a great coming-together process. it is not my candidate won -- >> if we are going all the way to the edge, are we going to be back here? is that what you are saying? >> i'm not going to speculate that far out, but we are the center of the universe for a moment. >> thank you for hosting us here. thank you for coming on. you can't come to iowa in

august without leaving without putting on a couple pounds. the culprit? the unending choices of fried foods. something i have found out firsthand. whoa! this may not make it, snickers on a stick. are you satisfied? well, it may have fallen apart on me, but it was delicious. it is warm chocolate, fried anything, fried snickers bar on a stick in iowa. the state fair fried food of the day. to cap, we had cajun fried cheese, fried butter and fried snickers. quick, i need a salad. live from ames, iowa, we'll be right back. [ artis brown ] america is facing some tough challenges right now.

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well, the candidates are now

responding to tonight's straw poll results. we'll go right to our nbc news campaign ben and a halferty and anthony terrell is embedded in ron paul's. andrew, let me go to you. everyone wants to know what tim pawlenty is thinking. are you sensing nervousness? >> well, i think that the number third place isn't all that much of a surprise. i think the real surprise here is how much he was in third place as mark murray pointed out a little earlier. he and ron paul and michele bachmann both doubled him. they compared themselves to polls earlier in the summer. des moines register had them sixth. today they are third. they are on the right trajectory with progress. in his last speech today, governor pawlenty around 3:30 right before voting closed went

to others in the campaign. >> what is this next set of events that you have to be hopping on to? >> yeah, i think he'll be traveling out of iowa for a few days next weekend. he could be in new hampshire, but certainly in the next couple of days he is laying low. he may have an event in iowa, but i'm sure he'll be back in iowa a lot, but he'll pop over to new hampshire for a little bit. >> all right. andrew, let me go to anthony terrell. a different mood in the ron paul world. they feel really good about their showing, what are they telling you? >> they say it is near a staytist call vote. >> they are right. that's less than 1%. >> in the campaign ron paul emerged as a top-tier candidate. this was a strong showing because of the grassroots movement. they are uniting a coalition against the washington establishment, which he's been saying on the campaign. he's been saying all the other

candidates are status quo in the washington establishment. >> the other campaigns, they don't have the money that -- ron paul won't have the same amount of money, he'll be in the race a long time. when you are tracking delegates, he'll be around. does he start -- what's his message against, does he believe romney, perry and bachmann are the establishment? >> he thinks they will split the vote. the addition of perry will dilute the rest of the vote and he'll end up gaining from that. >> and where does he go from here? is he camping out in iowa or trying to sort of nationalize things? >> it is a national campaign with an emphasis in iowa. a strong organization in iowa is what they told me today. because of the strong organization they did better than in 2007. >> what's his next schedule? >> the next schedule is campaigning for more in iowa and focusing on the national. rand paul will be campaigning with his dad. >> anthony terrell, andrew rafferty, get a little bit of rest tonight. but that's it, just a little

bit. trivia time, since 1848, how many times has the state of iowa voted for the loser in the presidential race? well, the answer is 11. the state of iowa is batting nearly .750 in the presidential elections. of the 40 elections since iowa became a state, they have voted for the winner 29 times. it is a swing state, folks. we'll be right back on this special edition of "the daily rundown" live from ames, iowa. [ female announcer ] this is not a prescription. this is kate. [ kate ] can't believe i have high blood pressure. what's that thing? another medication. ♪ i really should have taken my shoes off before i got weighed. [ female announcer ] you've got a lot on your mind. that's why every walgreens prescription goes through a 10 point safeguard check that reviews your current walgreens health record for allergies and potentially harmful drug interactions. [ kate ] i can do this. [ female announcer ] the 10 point safeguard check from walgreens. there's a way to stay well.

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and we're back live here in ames, iowa. we just got this exclusive video, just into msnbc. sarah palin reacting to the ames straw poll result. she's in illinois right now. >> well, i don't think that it's really much of a surprise. i think at this point ate test of organization getting to the

iowa straw poll through that process. so the prediction would be either ron paul or michelle bachmann. they having spent much time and energy and a whole lot of money to make sure that they had delegates there who would cast those votes. not really a surprise. but, you know, this is part of the process, another step. again, a test of organization at this point. and many more contests up ahead. >> all right. i'm joined now by nbc news political reporter. he has more on the events surrounding the straw poll, the iowa state fair. take it away. >> so, chuck, we had a lot of fun in here. we had all the excitement in here. also a lot of fun in a place that all of us have to go when you come to iowa, the state fair. one place in iowa is a must stop for presidential candidates, the state fair. posters, placards. for 11 days in the summer it's

an opportunity for dinds meet and try to win over voters. there's a lot of state fairs around the country but this is one of the oldest. begun in 1854. the largest. and the most notable. >>. ♪ our state fair is a great state fir ♪ . >> the book, movie and broadway play was based on this. the state fair is rich in history and calories. deep fried snickers, my favorite. >> not just snickers. you can deep fry just about anything here from oreos to butter. the most famous butter isn't dep fried it's this, 600-pound cow made of pure cream iowa butter. >> i love sculpting and i started doing it by accident. >> that's the cow's creator, a school teacher from west des moines, she's the fifth sculptor and has been doing it for 21 years. before taking over the chisle or

butter knife she apprenticed for 15 years. >> she was a good story territorial, good teacher. she instilled in me the love of sculpting and the medium is butter. >> butter is not the only thing churning. presidential hopefuls declafred or undeclared are trying to seize on the opportunity to connect with caucus goers. but there's risk. four years ago, for example, fred thompson wore gucci loafers. this is a proving ground. this is what's great about iowa, really. people get to meet candidates, they get to test -- they get to test what's under the hood, and who doesn't love a little butter. >> it's funny. a whole bunch of straw polls and multiple state fairs.

we have to remind ourselves we take this for granted sometimes. remember the folks we saw at the pawlenty tent yeah romney was down the street. >> how many places can people shake the hand of the person who could be the next person of the president of the u.n.. they do it here. >> good stuff. what did we learn here? my final thoughts on the ames straw poll. i think we found out michelle bachmann hasn't been in this race very long, has an organization to match her enthusiasm. that was the question. ron paul, much more serious campaign than it was four years ago. four years ago it was an idea. this time there's an organization behind that idea. tim pawlenty has to figure out does he have the resources, can he still run this top flight operation that he's running and still raise money to do it. of course it's split screen saturday, rick perry announcement. michelle bachmann and perry meet in waterloo. who will be getting the conservative vote?

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