candidates, do this? because it works with a certain s segment of their constituency? >> yes, a certain segment, but i believe the american electorate has time and time again made it clear that a leader of faith a president of faith, is someone they are comfortable with. reagan isn't someone who went to church all the time but i do think that, you know, the american people like a president -- >> jonathan. >> who has a spiritual life. >> we'll get back with more spirituality. great job as always. that does it for us today. i'm matt miller in for dylan ratigan. "hardball" starts right now. time to go big. let's play some "hardball." good evening. i'm michael smerconish in new york filling in for chris matthews. leading off tonight -- go for the bold. that's the advice president

obama is getting from some people about his jobs speech next week. in other words, forget about trying to get something through congress. republicans will oppose anything simply because mr. obama proposes it. go big. even unreasonable. make a statement, take a stand and then campaign against republicans who just say no. will he do that? will it work? that's our top story. plus, as if he didn't have enough problems, president obama suddenly finds himself having to worry about his base. african-americans and labor feel the president is taking them and their votes for granted. they won't vote republican but could stay home next november. also, torture the law and dick cheney. the former vice president defended again waterboarding as an effective, necessary and humane methods of interrogation. but wait until you hear his answer when matt lauer asks if it would be okay for a foreign government to waterboard and american? how fast will rick perry run away from his positions that social security is a failure and, you know, constitutional or that texas might want to consider seceding from the

union? he's about to find out, because his fellow republicans are going on the attack. finally, funny she doesn't look jewish. why some people seem to think michele bachmann is jewish, and that's why it's costing mitt romney some money. we start with the president's jobs initiative. eugene robinson, a columnist and howard feinman, an editorial director and both are msnbc political analysts. eugene, you wrote, president obama's promised jobs plan needs to be unrealistic and unreasonable at the very least and if he can crank it all the way up to unimaginable that would be even better. i take it from what you wrote what you're really saying is, hey, nothing's getting done in the next 15 months? >> well, what i'm saying is, go for it. you know, the plan should be what ought to happen, rather than what he thinks he can get through a republican house that's not going to let anything get through. they're not going to pass anything that he sends up there,

because they don't want to. and they don't believe it inn it and b.ance, th they don't want him out. >> if he throws the hail mary and the gop freshman class where do we stand? >> the next 15 months both sides can take chtheir case to the american people and let them decide, hear the arguments pro and con, some sort of large scale attempt to get this stalled economy working again. and i think that's a fight the president should relish, given that he's going to have a fight anyhow, and he's not going to get through the small ball kind of program that he wants to get through in the first place. >> here's one criticism of gene's probably, that's worthy, provocative to kick around here tonight. doesn't he lose reasonable ground? to the extent the president is

commanding more respect from ind tents determining the outcome of this election, doesn't he foresee that ground if all of a sudden he goes for bold, as we put it? >> yes, to some degree, and i don't think gene is really for, you know, impossible, crazy proposals. but i think gene's point, or the point that he makes is a good one is that the president right now is deeply disappointed -- has deeply disappointed a lot of his democratic colleagues. you mentioned at the setup of the show, african-americans and labor, talk to members of congress as i was doing last week, and there are democratic members, they're really disappointed in barack obama. they think that -- they're not sure he has the fight in here. they're not sure he understands how politics is played in washington. they'd like to see the fire and the fight. so politically, in terms of his base, i think he's got to give some kind of sweeping speech that says, let's really get the

country moving again, and do it in an aggressive political way. >> but is that his nature? let me show you -- >> no. no, it's not. that's the problem. >> let me show you the president earlier speaking at american legion conference in minneapolis about jobs. let's all watch. >> our economy has to grow faster. we have to create more jobs, and we have to do it faster. and most of all, we've got brat t break the gridlock in washington preventing us from taking the action we need to get this country moving. that's why next week i'll be speaking to the nation about a plan to create jobs and reduce our deficit. a plan that i want to see passed by congress. we've got to get this done. >> u speeugene, talking about breaking gridlock in washington jo think he had your "washington post" column in his hip pocket? >> no, i don't think he it in his hip pocket. if the election is going to be a referendum on the state of the economy on election day, then

that is of consider trouble for the president, because the economy is likely to still be lousy on election day. if it, however, is a referendum on two visions of the future, one in which we -- maybe we spend now but we get the economy moving. we do -- we retrain the unemp y unemployed for 24. >> century jobs. we jump-start new industries. we find a new path, in this complicated century versus the republican vision, which i think is old ideas, frankly, the tax cuts and deregulation. i think that's an argument that you can win. >> go ahead. >> sure. >> here's the problem. gene just said better in 35 seconds what the president needs to say than the president himself has said. what he's got to do with this stuff, i know it as i understand -- maybe even a

little naive, but he's got make it exciting, and optimistic as a challenge to be met by the american people. to talk about the country's future in a way that doesn't sound like gangsmanship about washington, but sounds like an exciting adventure for the new century that we share and do together. >> i thought he was at his best when he was extemporaneous and hot under the collar that friday night that the talks broke up with john boehner. i have another concern, though, about what's to come. i don't know about your households, but next week is the worst week in my household. the kids are all going back to school. it's just post-labor day. the gop debate is going to take place. republicans are going to announce their plans, then the tenth anniversary of sept 11th. mine is a political question. why in the world are they doing this next week? >> beats me. you know, i mean, you know, right after labor day is the

traditional kind of start of the new year. the political new year, i guess. so maybe it's -- maybe that's the -- >> he's got his years wrong, michael. it's the president -- the president does. you kick off the fall campaign in the presidential election year if you're a democrat on labor day, and right immediately after labor company that a big american city and talk about jobs. that's the way they used to do it. that's what they're going to try toy do. >> they've been told they have to hurry up and do something. that's why they're doing t. i'm suggesting a week or two delay. is it troublesome for supporters of the president it doesn't appear right now the white house knows what's going to happen? we don't nope what the white house will propose next week, here are ideas the president is considering according to politico. the administration might push to give tax credits to businesses that hire new employees, considering giving homeowners help, refinancing mortgages even homeowners who have fallen behind in payments. there would could be a job training program to help the

long-term unemployened and renovating schools roads, bridges and railways. eugene, first question to you, is that unrealistic and unreasonable to the extent you wering whoing for? >> well, depends on the size of those components, but i don't think all that would get through the house, obviously. talking about infrastructure, for example, you're at the very least talking about the infrastructure bank the president described. it takes at least some federal seed money, and even though some of these may have been republican ideas, or republican endorsed ideas in the past, they're quite likely to oppose them, wouldn't you agree, as we head towards the election? >> yes. go ahead. >> react to that list of -- >> he's in a very difficult spot here, because if he goes big and goes for the long ball, as gene's saying, he'll open himself up to the charge of playing politics with it, and a notion that he descended to the republicans level on this kind of thing, but if he picks a

bunch of smaller, more modest proposals that would actually in a reasonable congress have a chance of getting through, everybody will say he's just playing small ball. he's in a very, very difficult situation. and the fact that they haven't decided on the components, and that there doesn't seem to be, at least from what i've heard through back channels any kind of sort of big overarching lift of a driving dream to this, makes me think that the thing is going to be -- is going to be picked apart the moment that it's unveiled. >> howard, you wonder, here we are on the outside looking in. you wonder if they know what they're going to do. "the washington post" reports the white house is still trying to figure what direction to take next week. "beheend the scenes obama and top aides had yet to reach agreement on the major tenets of the plan and it remained unclear whether the president was looking for narrower ideas or more sweeping stimulus proposals to excite the liberal base and

draw contrasts with the gop." the three of us are all saying, we can agree, they're at a crossroads. throw the long ball or go for reasonable ground. either way, dealing with the freshmen class of the gop house? >> about stlutly right. it's not unusual there would be factions in the white house arguing for either reproach. i doubt the president himself is quite so undecided. he probably has a good idea of which way he wants to go, but he hasn't shared it with us yet and we'll have to wait for him to do that. >> howard feinman, it seems like some kind of reformation of the people who are upside-down because of their mortgages might be a smart tact for him to take? >> yeah. that's one that i know some members of congress or democrats are pushing. for example, representative john yarmouth of kentucky, who i know. he's in a swing district in kentucky but he's pretty solid liberal democrat, and a businessman by background. very much pushing noor kind for

of thing. an arrangement for the federal government to refinance even if under water. it's complicated to do logistically. the government owns half the mortgage it's. you have to be wise how do you it. the notion that the american government and the american people lent banks trillions of dollars at essentially no interest, but can't lend the american people money for their mortgages at 3% or 4% interest certainly is a powerful political talking point, and if they could find a way to do it structurally, make it, pencil as they say in the accounting business, you're going see that in the president's speech i. agree with that. thank you both for being on the program. >> thank you. >> thank you. coming up, the question of torture keeps coming up every time dick cheney's name is mentioned. the former vice president again defends waterboarding. what if a foreign government decides to waterboard and american? we'll get to that. you're watching "hardball," only on msnbc.

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this may come as bit of a surprise, no anger among american muslims towards the united states. the vast majority of muslim americans surveyed by the pew research center, 79%, rated their communities as excellent or good places to live. and 56% of muslim-american are satisfied with the current direction of the country. that's compared to 38% in 2007. this poll, one of the largest ever done on muslim attitudes in the united states shows only a small portion of those polled who said they felt anti-muslim bias in their everyday life. we'll be right back. don't g. so here's five bucks to help you buy v8 juice. five bucks. that's a lot of green. go to v8juice.com for coupons. you can count on us. an accident doesn't have to slow you down. with better car replacement, if your car is totaled,

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welcome back to "hardball." former vice president dick cheney is at it again defending water were boarding which he calls enhanced interrogation and his critics call torture. today on the "today" show he insisted to nbc's matt lauer

waterboarding works. >> you know if you were to conduct a poll in this country and ask people is waterboarding torture the vast majority would stay is. >> and i would argue, matt, that it's important for us not to get caught up in the notion that you can only have popular methods interrogation if you want to run a counterterrorism program. the fact is we learn valuable, valuable information from the process and kept the country safe over seven years. >> not everybody agrees with that assessment. joining me now, former cia assessor bob bayer and cliff may, the president of foundation for the defense of doemocracies. you don't agree with what you just heard from the former vice president? >> i'm not sure it's a question of disagreeing or agreeing. i haven't seen evidence it. i've heard cheney defend it but we haven't really seen proof of this. i'd like to see the transcripts from the interrogations before and after waterboarding. we simply can't rely on the word

of a politician or a cia director. >> to the extent it occurred as he explained, rime looking at the excerpt printed this morning in the "wall street journal" relative to abu, that when is credited it did work with regard to saed zabida. >> he came out and said it didn't work. he'd got the information before the waterboarding occurred. the fbi pulled out of waterboarding, afraid it was ineffective and illegal. we've got two parts of the government arguing over this, someone has to sit down and truly look at the evidence and see who's right. >> here's what the former vice president said in his book. as a matter of fact, he pointed to two instances he maintains waterboard hg a huge impact on u.s. intelligence. information from abu led to the capture of ksm after questioned with enhanced techniques became

a font of information. the preeminent source on al qaeda according to the 2004 report. ksm had become key in the al qaeda plots and personalities. by that account, it worked. >> yeah. and i think it's important to understand a couple things. one is that waterboarding is one method of, one enhanced interrogation methods. there's a lot of other ones. did we use any methods, or do we only ask po literally for cooperation? it's important we use some enhanced interrogation methods. only three individuals, exactly three, were ever waterboarded. one of them, as you say, was khalid sheikh mohammed, our most important source on al qaeda after he was waterboarded, including among other thing as plot calmed the second wave meant to knock down the largest building in los angeles, and so i think the evidence there suggests that had we not used enhanced interrogation techniques including waterboarding on sheikh mohammed, los angeles would be the size of new york city.

the other go ask is one of common sense. you have a terrorist. you try to persuade him to cooperate. he won't. can fear and pain at all help him persuade limb to become cooperative? not torture, but pain which is what enhanced interrogation are meant for. common sense, that could probably make someone more cooperative. >> professor alan dershowitz is the add vvocate for this. you believe actionable intelligence and no plethds short of waterboarding is working, you'd still say no? >> absolutely. i mean, why can't we do that in, locally, inside it's united states in criminal cases? if you had a kidnapping, you think somebody's life's in danger and have certain suspects, wee not run them through the same waterboarding and erg eggs? if you go by the logic, why not jt i served oversea, carried a weapon and was considered an

illegal combatant. i hope my government would prevent me from being waterboarded had i been captured? it's a slippery slope when you go down this and secondly, it's illegal according to the third geneva convention. we have to come to terms with this. >> cliff, the vice president seemed to sidestep matt lauer's hypothetical question this morning about whether or not countries should have the right to torture. let's all listen and you can react first. >> would it be okay for the iranian government to waterboard that american sdwrin citizen? >> well, we probably would object to it. >> on the grounds that it's torture? >> we have obligations towards our citizens, we weren't dealing with american citizens in the enhanced interrogation problem and people like khalid hoped, two or three actually waterboarded and good reason to believe they had information we could only get from them and that they knew more than anybody else. >> the criticism being, if we

used this methodology, they will use this methodology, although as one looks at the way in which mr. pearl from the "wall street journal" was decapitated, doesn't seem they need to take their queues from us? >> they're not signing on to any geneva conventions. is shouldn't be used lightly, three individuals waterboarded, one sheikh mohammed, and terrorists who knew about plots where innocent lives were at stake. even leon panetta said innocent lives were at stake. director for the cia for president obama. when you knowments lives are at stake you may have to use these memts. b barbaric in areas. we killed osama bin laden. you couldn't do that if he was suspect in the holdup of a seven 11:00 and the murder of a clerk behind the counter. we killed osama bin laden because they thought he knew of

a -- if we left him alive, beyond the pail and terrible, but killing him is okay? i don't understand that logic. someone needs to explain it to me. >> you want to respond? >> my real problem with this, because a politician says that waterboarding works is not good enough for me. dick cheney said there was wmd in iraq and there wasn't. we really need to get to the evidence and there should be a commission appointed on this. >> i'm happy to have a commission. i think it's a good idea and have written columns on this that would look exactly at what techniques enhance the interrogation techniques including sleep deprivation, various kinds of head music and light and boredom and other inherent interrogation techniques what thinkical icala. and probably the president say, some we won't use no matter what and some i will authorize and some the cia can authorize. the reason these techniques were

used was because they were believed to be illegal, partly because they were all techniques used and our own special forces and off on our own spies. people like you, bob, maybe not you, who are trained spies had to undergo waterboarding. the reason, they did, believed to be no torture, short of torture, stress and deres. the idea, nobody volunteers for torture or a hot poker in the eye or fingernails cut off, torn off, but waterboarding you can do in the afternoon and you can have dinner tonight with your family and you will not be the worst for wear, khalid sheikh mohammed sap live and well. >> used on trainee s when i was inside the cia, but i have, you know, before i came here i looked at all the clips, the military testimony for the congress, and ucr military totally opposed to waterboarding. general after general has gone up there saying it's arcane. >> what they've said is i agree with this. they don't want to be using

these techniques. the mill carry is not and should not. the question, whether with the intelligence community there can be a small cadre that uses them in exceptional circumstances by the director, addressed only by the president. not the military, not by the police or every interrogator absolutely. but would you prefer khalid sheikh mohammed not be waterboarded even if it means the second wave attack against los angeles would have proceeded? >> said differently, is there anyone that would arg sgu we shouldn't have waterboarding we had the option on the 9th or 10th of september? nobody would make that point. sorry. out of time. up next, a case of mistaken identity. why some you've voters cannot resist michele bachmann. that's next in the "sideshow." you're watching "hardball" only on msnbc. [ oswald ] there's a lot of discussion going on about the development of natural gas,

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welcomes back to "hardball." time now for the "sideshow." first up, not sure what to make of this one. it's no secret that religion might play a larger role in the gop campaign nan years' past with candidates and deeply religious christians whose beliefs play a role in their political philosophy, but a piece in the "new york post" this morning poents out a rather startling road block faced by the mitt romney campaign. according to the piece, some jewish donors are telling fund-raisers for romney, a mormon, while they like him, they'd rather open their wallets for the jewish candidate. last i check, no jews were running for president. so who's being mistaken as the jewish candidate? would you believe michele bachmann. am i missing something here? true that bachmann mentioned her affinity towards the jewish committee and boasts are working in the summer. fooling people. talking about the poster child

for christian conservatism here. something is not adding up. more for the 2012 campaign front. texas governor rick perry and his past is catching up to him, although perry promised to do everything he can to undo president obama's health care plan, he wasn't always so opposed to reform. seems back in the 1990s, '93 to be specific, as first lady hillary clinton was leading a task force on health care reform, she received a letter of gratitude from no other than the texas agriculture commissioner, you guessed it, rick perry. he said, i think your efforts to trying to reform the nation's health care system are most commendable, and later said, i would like to request that the task force give particular consideration to the nation's farmers, ranchers and agriculture members and other members of rural communities. a far cry from the candidate rick perry who describes federal health care reform as "massive overreach that intrudes in the lives of every american." how things change. now for the big number

everyone has been hit at one time with late fees and apparently the pentagon is no exception. what's the call prit? 20-foot storage containers used in iraq and afghanistan, each one returned late can rack up fees over $2,000, not cheap. how much has been spent over the past beck kade on the pentagon's equipment with overdue library books? would you believe $720 million. initially the problem was put on the back burner since neither war was expected to last very long and clearly it's backfired. that's tonight's big number. up next. african-americans and labor unions say prid obama is taking them for granted. does the president need to worry about his own base? you're watching "hardball." only on msnbc. ♪ ♪

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i'm brad goode with your cnbc market wrap. stocks battled back today edging higher despite a dismal reading on consumer confidence. dow jones industrial adding 20 points. the s&p 500 tacking on just 2 and the nasdaq picking up 14 points. and investors shrugging off a steep drop in consumer confidence in august. now at its lowest level since april of 2009. a recent wild market swings are piling on to existing concerns about joblessness and higher costs for food and clothing. investors were digesting news the fed debated buying more long-term bonds at its most recent meeting to settle keeping interest rates low near zero through 2013. and revamping its best selling jets 737 with a new engine. already ordered for almost 5,000 airplanes. and raising a full-year outlook. barnes & noble report add smaller than expected loss, the

ereader accepted offset dropping book sale. that's is for cnbc first in business worldwide. now let's get you back to "hardball." we want to give him every opportunity, but our people are hurting. unemployment is unconscionable. we don't know what the strategy is. we don't know why on this trip he's in the united states, we don't know that. when you let us know it is time to let go, we'll let go. >> welcome back to "hardball." that was congresswoman maxine waters speaking at a job fair sponsored by the congressional black caucus. at this job fairs some black leaders made clear with an unemployment rate of nearly 16% their community wants more from the president and labor leaders

criticized the president on jobs, too. here's afl-cio president richard trumka. >> i think you made a strategic mistake when he confused job crisis with the deficit crisis. a number of months ago. when he would talk about job creation and in the same sentence talk about deficit reduction, and people got the two confused, and he helped with that. >> the president will address union plebs when he visits detroit on labor day. but could dissatisfaction among these core members of obama's constituency put his re-election in jeopardy? the member of the congressional black caucus and ed schultz the host of aef the ed show." make it clear. talking about turnout when we think of this problem for candidate obama. we're not thinking whether he garners the vast majority of the vote or the labor vote? >> kraeccorrect.

had you look add obama's slogan, fired up and ready to go. they're ready to go but certainly not fired up nep might have hope, they don't see change. because of that you're going to see a lot of people, who, yes, he's the african-american president. we're glad about that, celebrating that, and we want to see some of the change we talked about. i think people are very hurting, as you heard in your earlier segment coming up and i think they want to see that real change n. firing up one component of his core constituency he runs the risk of alienating perhaps another element of the constituency he needs to win in 15 months? >> well, i think that the k congressional black caucus sent a strong message to the white house. the fact of the matter is, what are their options? go support governor perry? the fact of the matter, we are living in radical times and this president is dealing with a landscape no other president has had to deal with had it comes to obstruction. i view his speech coming up on jobs as a last-ditch effort to

deal with republicans and the congressional black caucus and the black community doesn't want to hear this, but this is a time where patience will have to be used in a sense, because the president is exhausting every olive branch he can to show the country he's doing everything he can to work with the other side to create jobs, and everybody in this country feels a hell of a lot different when collecting a paycheck and right now we have obstruction in washington that's taking place not making it possible for the president to move ford on his agenda on jobs. that's really the crux of the whole thing. nobody's basis is going to feel good if they're not working. >> we had a good conversation at the outset of the program. eugene robinson encouraged the president to throw the long ball in his remarks next week. i said if he throws the long ball he's conceding to the middle ground, reasonable ground, to the intransigence and becomes part of the intransigence. would you share that? >> unemployed voter, as well, and the middle class is

struggling. there is no question that we've got an economic divide in this country that the president ought to be able to easily identify on the campaign trail, but he's got an image problem right now. this white house has got an image problem right now that they don't fight hard enough. i think a lot of these job fairs taking place, these congressional members are hearing the same thing. i heard it yesterday down in new orleans. they do want more out of the white house when it comes to fighting, but fighting the republicans on what they're trying to do to middle class families. and i think that's where the level of frustration sets in. >> congresswoman what specifically would you like to hear from the president? are you looking for words, actions, a combination of both? where does it begin? >> i am looking for help and i think the american people are looking for help. let me point out a couple statistics for you. the president talks how we were able to increase pell grants. great. in the uc system and cal state system here in california, simultaneously they increased tuition by 40% over the last

three years. see what does that say to our young people? in the african-american community, 39% are unemployed between the ages of 18 and 25. so when you get to what ed said, and i'm glad to participate with you this evening, ed, is that the issue is, they're not going to go some place else, or vote for a republican. the problem is, are they going to come out and vote? because without having a job or food on the table, without having something to look forward to, people are disillusioned an i don't think you're going to see not only minority, young people in general that were a huge base for president obama, i don't think you're going to see people sleeping, you know, in church halls and on grandma's couch to be able to come out and advocate. they're concerned and can't even afford to get there if they wanted to. >> congresswoman, i think the president, his campaign will have to make the case that things could be worse, if the republicans get in charge. they continue to favor the corporations and the wealthy in this country, the middle class will be gone.

and the opportunity for those young americans that you're talking about, that's going to change. and the facts of the matter is, that we are facing some very radical times in this country when it comes to an agenda about what our priority list is. the president's juggling a lot right now. as far as the unions are concerned, they're going to be there for this president. if we're concerned about turnout, this is what president obama is going to have to do. he's going to have to convince them that the alternative is a hell of a lot worse. it's not a good platform to be on right now but he's going to have sow explain the instructionism he is facing right now. >> congresswoman, alew me to show you what the atlanta mayor said. you can respond to this. >> look, the president were to start speaking directly to min prern african-americans what he has done for them as the first african-american president that during a general election campaign that could have very adverse results, and i believe

that black people understand that. i think they understand it well. >> and i think congresswoman, he was responding in part to words like your own where you said, hey, i don't even hear president obama use african-american as an expression any longer. the political dynamic of what would happen if he began speaking in those terms? we've just admitted, take it and respond. >> first of all, clearly, the president didn't run a campaign the first time as saying only talking about african-americans. and i don't think he's going to be reelecteded by doing it either. but what i would venture to say to you is that all of the americans, whether they're african-american, latino or caucasian, in my district, even in the most affluent areas, an unemployment rate is at 10%. the young whites, 18 to 25, they have unemployment of 23%. so i would venture to tell you that a lot of people are hurting. he's going to have to speak to all of us. >> got it. >> and by speaking to us, only

then will he get the ready to go fired up. >> thank you, congresswoman. ed, the final word later tonight. >> i will do that at 10:00. thank you. >> congresswoman richardson and ed schultz. rick perry seems to be the leader of the republican pack. what about calling social security aponzi scheme? this is "hardball," only on msnbc.alonpas. pain relief that works at the site of pain... up to 12 hours. salonpas. if something is simply the color of gold, is it really worth more? we don't think so. chase sapphire preferred is a card of a different color. unlike others, you get twice the points on travel, and twice the points on dining, and no foreign transaction fees.

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ensure clinical strength... helping you to bounce back. ensure! nutrition in charge! and we're back. texas governor rick perry has quickly gone from a non-candidate to the leader of the pack in the recent 2012 poll, but will hi comments on secession and calling social security a failure and a ponzi scheme make him an easy target for fellow republicans? for more on perry and the rest of gop field, we bring in jonathan, and chris who writes for the fix for "the washington post." both men msnbc political analysts. jonathan, you know, those elements that we're focusing on, are they the sort that will be criticized of perry by his combatants next week in the debate? >> you know, i don't think the secession comment will be, because in some ways, there's quite a lot of context there

when politifact and other fact checks looked closely, they found he wasn't really calling for secession, saying he understood why people are mad. but the other business, social security and medicare, even tea party members, the most radical tea party members, are strong supporters of social security and medicare. so rick perry is going to have a terrible problem at issue going forward, michael. >> but will the gloves come off next week at the reagan library? >> i don't think so. i think it's his first debate. you might see mitt romney talking about how he doesn't think america needs a career politician. that will be code for rick perry. you might see jon huntsman talking about how we need, you know, less extremism in the party. he believes in science. that will be a shot at rick perry, but i don't think you're going to -- he's going to go --

>> you're telling me you think they'll take a pawlenty in the debate? >> not a pawlenty. half a pawlenty. >> watch this now. rick perry pleads to republicans in the latest cnn opinion research poll. he nearly doubles mitt romney while palin, bachmann and giuliani lag behind. take them out from the field he still leads romney by 14 points. you've talked a lot and written about recently the palin factor. it's not the cleanest survey. a for romney, and a palin person is going to probably go for perry, maybe it breaks evenly. what are the dynamics? >> first it's hard to gain this out, because a perry vote -- a palin voter other giuliani voter, they're not all the same. remember, the one governor to endorse rudyilianist's 2008 presidential campaign, is rick perry. my guess would be in julianist

doesn't run, he probably endorses him, so maybe some of those folks come along. my argument with the race at the moment. i agree with jonathan about the fact that i don't think you'll see any of the top shots at perry. i do thing gingrich, some of those people might, but i think he's still in his honeymoon per. he announced his campaign august 13th. so i think the first month or so, you're not going to see anyone take direct shots. that said we have five debates between september 7th and october 11th i believe or october 15th, sometime in there rick perry will come under some serious scrutiny. >> i maintain and it's early, as chris just said, i can make the argument that rick perry or jon huntsman stand the best chance in a general election. if that's true -- okay, probably the three of us might agree on that. how can mitt romney make that

argument? and would the gop base even care? can he say to them, look, we all want to get rid of obama. i'm the only one that can do it. no one on this stage stands a shot. >> you're actually better situated to answer that question than i am. but my sense is this year they are looking for somebody who appeals to their hearts less than their rational minds in terms of who's going to be the best candidate against barack obama. right now a lot of republicans think that anybody can beat obama. they are so down on the president, they believe that 9% unemployment is unsustainable for his reelection campaign. so i think they're going to go for the person they like best. that might be rick perry, but he's going to have a problem with this book "fed up." this book did not come out five years ago or ten years ago. it came out ten months ago, and it is full of bobby traps for

rick perry. he basically wants to repeal the new deal, and a lot of the new deal from food safety on down is popular with the american people. >> but, jonathan, the sort of thing we have a tendency on this program and elsewhere to sit back and say, my god, can you believe he or she said that? that's exactly what a certain part of the gop base wants to hear. that's what earns you stripes in a primary process, but not in a general election. chris cillizza, you take the final minute on that issue. >> you're right. i think what we have seen throughout primaries, and i put democrats and republicans in this vote, they tend to run to their base in the primary and try to moderate in a general election. the question is, is whether rick perry can put enough of a foot in both camps. i think people like michele bachmann and sarah palin would struggle. >> we're going to find out soon.

thank you, jonathan alter, thank you chris cillizza. don't forget, next wednesday september 7th, this is what i was referring to, at 8:00 p.m. eastern, the republican candidates debate live from the reagan library in california, and it's moderated by our own brian williams. when we return, let me finish with the political gaffes of michele bachmann. you're watching "hardball," only on msnbc. relationships are life. if you don't have that thing that fills your heart and your soul, you're missing that part of your life that just fulfills you. ♪ [ male announcer ] for us at humana, relationships matter too. the better we know you, the better we can help you choose the right medicare plan. that's why humana agents sit down with you to figure out your medicare options. and we have nurses you can call anytime, even at 3 a.m.

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let me if this tonight with republican presidential candidate michele bachmann and her tendency to commit gaffes on the campaign trail. her public pronouncements made waves again over the weekend, in florida when she said i don't know how much god has to do to get the attention of the politicians. we've had an earthquake and heron, and he said, are you going to start listening to me here? the american people are roaring right now. they know government is on a morbid obesity diet. she later insisted she was joking, but that hasn't stop critics from piling on. i know how dangerous sitting in front of a live microphone can be, because i do it for 20 hours a week on a radio program. i've made plenty of mistakes. during an interview, with famous reasonen tie nan after having his legs amputationed, i took

the had the of the statement of walk us thus the steps. michael kinsley said a gaffe is when a politician tells the truth. everybody makes mistakes. the republicans, the democrats, the questions is when do the inevitable verbal miscues cross the bien to a trend worth monitoring. before last week'send bachmann had mistakenly said the revolutionary war started in concord, in that new hampshire as opposed to massachusetts. she mixed up the birthplace of john wayne, and she also lamented the rise of the soviet union, despite its collapse in 1991. it's true that bachmann isn't the only capable of offering silly statements in public. what should be concerns is the nature of her blunders. unlike many of her peers, she co