i think they're looking at the problems. i don't think the way they've sought independence has worked but i think that's all that's on their mind right now and explains some of the stuff we personalized to him as if he always wants to compromise. i think there is some math here. >> and the math is, political achievement and political preservation, not bank reform, trade reform, tax reform, energy efficiency. doesn't solve any of our issues. >> on the example i gave we know he said revenues were important and he tossed them out the window by his own words. >> pleasure to see you. >> thanks. >> all right. that does it for us. i'm dylan ratigan. "hardball" begins right now. the next voice you hear. let's play "hardball." good evening. i'm chris matthews at the ronald

reagan presidential library in simi valley, california. leading off, game change. in just three hours the republican presidential candidates will face off here for the first of the fall debates. and the first debate featuring the new front runner rick perry of texas. behind me you can see airforce one, which carried presidents from 1973 all the way to 2001. i happen to have been on that plane working as a carter speechwriter for president carter when we learned before the election that carter was going to lose to ronald reagan. that plane is suspended over the stage where the eight republican presidential candidates will gather for the most important face-off yet of the political year. the key issues as politico reported this morning, can perry take a punch? can mitt romney throw a punch? can michele bachmann get back in the race? they'll all be taking aim at the man who isn't here of course, president obama, who is looking at the worst poll numbers of his presidency right now. whatever happened to hope and change? can mr. obama begin to turn things around with his big

speech on jobs tomorrow night? the debate begins at 8:00 p.m. eastern tonight and you can only see it here on msnbc. got you. and right after the debate, stay with us for analysis with my msnbc colleagues rachel maddow, ed schultz, the reverend al sharpton, lawrence o'donnell, and eugene robinson. we begin tonight with our coverage with david gregory, the moderator of nbc's "meet the press" here with me at the reagan library "the huffington post's" howard fineman also an msnbc political analyst and former ronald reagan speechwriter peggy noonan herself who is a columnist for "the wall street journal." and the number one reason to read "the wall street journal" each saturday morning. i want to go to my colleague david gregory because i think tonight is the next voice you hear. my old boss tip o'neill used to say ronald reagan's strength was not just that he spoke or what he looked like as a handsome fellow, rascal as clinton would say, but his voice had the timbre of self-confidence,

common sense, middle america as well as being a conservative. it seems to me tonight rick perry's voice, everyone's going to be listening. does the man have it? your thoughts. by the way, he is a hard guy to get, isn't he, from the sunday shows? >> we're still trying. we're still trying. chris, i think you're exactly right. this is a big leadership moment. we're still early here. let's always remind people of that. rick perry is new on the scene and boy has he shot up in the polls. but this is a leadership moment for everybody on that stage but really you focus on perry. you focus on governor romney. maybe governor huntsman. because this is a down economy. this is a real crisis in the country. there is so much pessimism. and there is so much pessimism and anger toward not just the president, disapproval on top of ang anger, but also toward republicans. this is about the next voice you hear but it's also am i comfortable with this person being the next president of the united states? because leadership matters. >> yes. >> especially when there is a

lot on the line and that's what we're in right now. >> peggy, it seems to me that certainly 70% of the democratic base is holding very strong. that's not a great percentage but it's there. everybody is somewhat -- somewhat left of center all the way to the right is looking for an option play. someone they can see as president if obama has to go. my thought about that. do we know enough about rick perry to say, yes or no, is he a reasonable option play for the reasonable voter? >> i think we're going to start seeing that tonight. starting tonight there are five debates between now and october 18th. this is the first one. it's the first time rick perry has been on this stage with guys who have been around for a while and made a real impression, like mitt romney. i think what perry will be wanting to do is showing that he is a possible president. you know? papoli meaning of course possible pope. so i think the way you put it is

will he find his voice and show us his voice? i would say, part of tonight's drama is, will he look like, seem like, have the bearing and manner of a potential president? >> going back to the question we opened with can he take a punch? he is not going to be punching. all the other guys will be coming at him i guess led by bachmann but i don't know. >> and in the reporting i was doing today to try to get that sense from the different camps, there is no question that he is going to be questioned right from the start. first of all, ron paul already had his ad up attacking him for the fact that rick perry supported al gore nine years ago for president. >> come on. he was a conservative democrat back then. al gore was the most conservative candidate. he was a hawk, he had marty behind him. it was a reasonable position to take at the time. >> but if you're going to write a book about your political history which rick perry did called "fed up" and attack al gore in the book which he does you might want to mention at least in a footnote that you once supported him for president. >> i got you. >> okay. so there's that. >> touche.

>> well, then there is the whole question of what the texas record really is. >> okay. >> for conservatives the dream act in texas which allows the children of illegals to get a college education, which many people think is a great idea, is something that is anathaniel hawthor hawthorne -- anathema to the tea party. what does mitt romney do? mitt romney will be standing right flex to him. he has been the i'm the nice guy. >> i like this. arms out like this. here is the question. >> he's standing right next to him. >> chuck todd, i was talking to him and he is always wore bitd this. what happens if romney is sitting there watching it like the referee and michele bachmann who's got a lot of spunk starts throwing the darts at rick perry and he looks like a wuss because he is pawlenty all of a sudden, he becomes pawlenty the guy who didn't throw the punch. what happens? >> well look. one of the questions tonight is

will mitt romney be a little rattled by the presence of the big guy immediately to his left? romney has been the big guy standing on the line in these debate podium things. >> you're right. >> he's been big, tall guy and everybody else seems quarrelous and yappy and maybe pugulistic and he would stand and look and smile in this detached way. can't do that today. he is with another big guy who may take a few pokes at him. >> like "toy story" where the cowboy sees the other guy, the new gichlt go ahead, david. your thoughts? >> i want to make a couple thoughts. let's not forget there are a couple different audiences here these candidates are playing to. the principal audience are the republican primary voters, the enthusiasts who hear in september before there is even a primary, they are dialed in, paying attention, they want to see who is up and who is down. this is who can best tea party the other? i mean, who can rail against the government in the role of

government particularly at this time in a distressed economy, who can outdo rick perry, who has an incumbent governor running against washington and the role of government generally. there is a second audience too. there is an audience of folks who think washington is getting it absolutely wrong and is part of the problem. that's republicans and democrats. not just president obama. they got to think down the road to a general election so if you're mitt romney you're thinking about both of those things at once. because their whole play is that somehow rick perry is a diversion. that it's absurd. the whole candidacy is absurd. you can't write a book like he wrote and be taken seriously. that may be wishful thinking because romney has been in this race for a while and here there is somebody like a perry who can rise so quickly in the polls. it says something about the state of the republican electorate right now. >> yeah. but let me ask you guys if that's a reasonable proposition on the part of -- peggy, first. the old dog food argument about the dog doesn't care about the

commercial, doesn't like the dog food. the republican people have been seeing mitt romney now for years. he says he's not a career politician. that's always been, he ran against ted kennedy, ran for governor, couldn't run for re-election. they didn't like him up there. ran for president. lost his running again. all that guy does is run for office. he says he is against career politics. after looking at him for years they see rick perry and say, better him. >> well, it's interesting that a lot of people are still shopping. >> they are? >> yeah. up in new hampshire a friend told me the republicans up there are showing up in big numbers at one guy's event and then showing up at the other guy's event. there is a certain amount of that but due to what david said as i was driving here through the suburbs of southern california, i was looking out at a bunch of homes, just average people homes, and i was wondering if i was going to say,

hear anything tonight that would actually impact the lives of the people whose houses i was just passing. this is very base-o-centric this part of the campaign. you know what i mean? >> when did ronald reagan connect that way back in the '80s? when he said are you better off than you were four years ago? my dad said he thought that was a great line though he had mentioned it before on the trail. >> that happened in a debate but it was interesting when reagan announced in 1980, put on his shirt sleeves and he went to liberty park and he went in front of the statue of liberty and he said, this is a broad movement not a narrow one. it seems to me one of the things the fellows and lady on this stage want to do is show that they mean it. they're serious. they're passionate. they're sincere. but they are not in the thrall of ideology. you know what i mean? they can't make themselves small to win now and then be larger. >> i watched that on nbc news that night at a bar in georgetown because i had written

carter's speech that day. i went and saw your candidate at that time, ronald reagan, standing there with a statue of liberty behind him and i said, my god. he's rediscovered an american icon the statue of liberty which is the statement of all immigrant americans which is most of us and he took it back from the democrats. >> yes. >> in one afternoon. it was so dramatic. howard, let me respond. we got a new poll that shows republicans are polled by "the washington post" and abc. look at this number now. it's about who people think is most likely to beat president obama. this is the name of the game. you could say david gregory was just saying you have to think to the future of this general election. here is mitt romney. ten points behind him right now. i'm sorry. rick perry is ahead by 1030. romney at 20. palin down at 8. the rest in single and lower digits down about half lower digits. it looks to me like they think right now based upon this very veneer look that perry is more electable than mitt romney. >> at first blush that is a devastating number for mitt romney whose whole argument is based on i'm the reasonable guy. i'm the calm guy whose

circumstances will allow to be president because i've got the business background. i've got the demeanor. i'm the guy. yes, you may temporarily be fascinated by these other people but, you know, like it or not i'm your guy. provisionally what people in that poll are saying is, nah. we would rather not have you unless we have to have you. i mean, that's sort of the romney strategy. you'll be distracted by these other people but come back to good old mitt romney because he can get it done in the context of running against obama. but right now i think republicans at the grass roots are really interested in rick perry. some of these numbers for rick perry are just, we're curious about you, rick perry. we really want to know. so that's -- >> david, i think a part of this, we don't like to talk too much about it but i'll do it darn it. part of this may be southern conservatives, christian conservatives, people in the religious right, who have been shopping around looking for a candidate like them and romney isn't like them. he is a member of the lds church, obviously a northeastern guy, harvard guy, st. paul's

guy, whatever, went to one of those schools up there and he is not one of them. isn't it as simple as geography if you look at it that way? >> in part. there are some very influential republicans back in 2008 who felt that mitt romney would have a mormon problem particularly in the south among christian conservative voters. he's going to put that to the test. it is i think very difficult to poll for that. very difficult to know about that. but i wanted to add another element too which is i think there are some shades of 2004 here as well. when you think about the candidacy of senator kerry. look, there were no weapons of mass destruction found in iraq and george w. bush was re-elected president. i always point that out. it's not easy to dislodge a president of the united states. the guy you worked for had it happen under pretty precarious and extreme circumstances and that may -- >> true. >> be yet what we face here for president obama. but part of this is voters and this kind of economy looking and making a competence judgment so

i think that the difficulty for perry and part of the test here is what kind of political skills does he really have in the form of a debate? what kind of competency does it look like he lass? this is where they have to be careful about appealing for the tea party sentiment, antigovernment sentiment and then thinking about what the heck do you do when you actually get in office when you got this kind of difficulty facing you? >> is he a credible president, good thought. david gregory, "meet the press." howard fineman of everything, especially the huffington post, and us, and peggy noonan who is the real reason i read "the wall street journal" religiously and tribally every saturday morning. you write the best column of any newspaper. >> thank you. >> remember, brian williams, john harris will moderate the republican debate coming up here right down at the reagan library tonight 8:00 eastern. you have to watch on msnbc tonight. can't watch it anywhere else. watch it here. enjoy it. stick aroundo through it. then join us tomorrow night for the president's big jobs speech also on msnbc 7:00 p.m. eastern,

well before the nfl opener. coming up by the way with his big job approval at a new low. so it's a big night for the president. what's happened to president obama is what we'll talk about coming back in a second. can he recapture the hope and change he talked about in his campaign? that's the big question tomorrow night. you're watching "hardball" from the ronald reagan presidential library where the republican candidates debate tonight only on msnbc. ♪ ♪♪ ♪ [ male announcer ] unlike some car companies, nissan is running at 100%, which means the most innovative cars are also the most available cars. nissan. innovation for today. innovation for all. ♪

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back to "hardball" the republican candidates right now are certainly going to go after president obama tonight. he is prepared to give his own big speech tomorrow night in washington. the president may have a bigger problem than detractors on stage. the latest poll numbers paint grim picture. with 50% of americans, 62% disapprove his handling of the

economy. 47% strongly are in that category of disapproval and 77% of the country, this is a powerful number, 4 of 5 heading in the wrong direction which is up 11 points. these are the worst numbers ever i think for president obama. even more problematic the white house is having a difficult time branding the president. who is he? the pragmatic compromiser? he came into office promising a post partisan era or the champion of the working middle class willing to take on conservatives and big business? he a populist, pragmatist or what? these are the questions that i've spent, i've had two weeks off. what a great time. you go out and listen to people, east coast, out in wyoming, back in massachusetts. jeff, you report this all the time and this sense it's no longer what's he doing wrong? it's who is he? did we get the guy wrong? did we miss something? he a political animal? he someone who connects with

people organically like political leaders do or is he a disconnected soul? >> i'm struck by how much the conversation and the questions right now about president obama are the same ones being asked four years ago when he was a candidate. is he experienced enough? he tough enough? would anyone ever be afraid of this guy? who is he really? he, you know, a hard core liberal? >> the same guy. >> i think he is the same guy but i think his reality has struck him in the face here and they're having a very hard way navigating around that. and he is frustrated because of it. you can tell. >> he's frustrated with his own people. is he happy with the people around him? he's god david plouffe, axelrod. does he feel he isn't being served well by the people around him? >> i think he happensy with those people. he has always had a tight set of advisers. these people with the exception of bill daley have been with him since the beginning. in terms of advice about what to do about the economy the next circle he has been getting

specific policy proposals throughout the summer throughout the debt ceiling debate certainly. >> i wonder if he isn't counting on this kind of what seems to be my intuition of what mitt romney is up to. he seems to think there's something fundamentally flawed about rick perry so he can wait him out. in other words, don't jump at the jugular now. let perry stumble himself and then eventually be the last man standing. does obama figure because he seems so debonair still that the republicans are going to blow it, step on it? >> he thinks they are going to nominate someone who is so controlled by the, beholden to the tea party, that he is able to win. the project he faces now with his advisers is the same as bill clinton in 1995, george bush in 2003, which will culminate at the convention next summer. how do you tell a story about the same guy because he is the same guy in a different guy, and contrast him with the republican? he looks in -- the minute there

is a republican nominee he will look to be in stronger shape than he is today. no matter who that is. once he has the ability to contrast george bush, 2004, contrast with kerry. won him the election. clinton did it with dole. obama will at least try to do it with the republicans. >> let's take a paradigm. john lindsay of new york and elite mayor of new york, very attractive candidate but unpopular mayor for a while in new york. he was able to get re-elected against a strong opposition by saying second toughest job in the world. he was able simply able to lower the bar on expectations simply saying this job is so tough mayor of new york that i've done an okay job. keep me in the job. can obama say i walked into such crap, such horror left behind by the president george w. that i did pretty well given that. can he lower that bar? are the public still going to say wait a minute, buddy, 9.1% unemployment. it's your fault. can he change that question? he can maybe lower it a little bit. some voters who voted still have deep questions that i think are

different than president bush faced or president clinton faced. some are not sure who the guy is. >> what are the options? does anybody deep down believe except for the far right that he is a deep down gut lefty? do people really believe that in the middle? >> some do. i'm not sure people in the middle believe that necessarily but it seems sort of different than them. the people on the left certainly don't believe it and that is another problem that the white house has. >> the left doesn't believe he is a left but the right thinks he is. do you think the middle thinks he is a left? >> i think the people like the massachusetts voters who voted for scott brown think he has gone offtrack by being too much of a big spender on some of the things. health care the country is still divided on. the stimulus is not seen as a big success. he doesn't get much credit for the auto bailout having saved jobs in that way. i think he, if the battle is to define himself as a good person for the economy or somebody who is not a big spending liberal i don't think he'll win that election. the battle is to divide himself against the republicans.

if rick perry is the nominee what he has said about social security is something that in the past we'd have said no one could win a general election with that kind of position on social security. >> but i learned with ronald reagan a president who has a voice, a candidate who is competent, can update his views and change them back to the middle because he's live and there and the rest is on paper somewhere. let's take a look. here are some of the troubling numbers. here are a few things we can expect from the president's job plan tomorrow night. we're hearing there will be something of the magnitude of $40 billion into the economy, a mix of tax cuts and spending. the "new york times" reported today that is your paper the planned center piece will be the proposal to extend for another year the payroll fund tax break paid by workers due to expire by the end of the year. that could mean as much as $200 billion being injected into the economy. there will also likely be an extension of unemployment benefits which are also due to expire this year. obama will also be likely to talk about spend iing to repair roads, airport, and schools and probably propose direct aid to

local governments which will focus on halting layoffs and teachers and first responders. bloomberg has reported. this is distressing to me. this looks like a stimulus package from back in 2009. it looks like what i'm calling sund sundrys and notions like drug stores. no oompf, no big bang, no something a cab driver can say hey guess what he is going to do now, i'm so thrilled. he is finally going to do something about jobs. is this that? is this what you're reporting? this motley crue of usual suspects? it's so familiar. >> the question is are republicans going to oppose even this? we saw what happened with the last stimulus plan. from the very beginning they lock stepped. >> this is so obvious, stuff that's been on the street for years, for weeks at least. >> it has been on the street for weeks. there is nothing fresh in there. >> why ask for a joint session and go down to the congress and stand up on the hill with everybody in america watching across the world and saying here is what you've been talking

about for weeks. >> they certainly have raised expectations for this. they want to reset the conversation. we'll see if they can do it in another speech. >> you confused me sometimes because you've said something really tough about the president. they may both be true. you say the motley crue of usual suspects but they'll still dump on it. >> again, what i care about is helping the country and turning things around. >> would this work? >> if you believe in spending and tax breaks to stimulate the economy given the scale of the problem now, 300 or 400 is not enough. it's just not enough. if that's your theory. >> what should he do? >> i still think he's going to have to get anything through john boehner. >> should he go big or small? >> he should go with something john boehner and he can agree on. >> big or small? >> as big as possible. >> okay. i'll keep working to find out what this guy is thinking. thank you, mark and jeff. "new york times" reporter, best out there. up next along with dan balz. up next tim pawlenty lets loose with what he is like. these guys are so funny after

they get beaten. he is really a card right now. wait until you hear what he has to say about his opponents the republicans who beat him. moments ago michele bachmann arrived at the reagan presidential library. she came in to take a look, walk through. taking a look at her mike stand. i saw rick perry the governor do that a moment ago. there is marcus her husband with her. they're getting a physical sense of what it is like to stand in front of that audience tonight and there is huntsman now. he's had a cold today but he has a good voice. i think he might be something tonight. he said, call me crazy if i believe in evolution. that sets him apart. you're watching "hardball" only on msnbc. [ man ] behind every business is a "what if."

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be happy. be healthy. can i try yours? i know you're worried about making your savings last and having enough income when you retire. that's why i'm here -- to help come up with a plan and get you on the right path. i have more than a thousand fidelity experts working with me so that i can work one-on-one with you. it's your green line. but i'll be there every step of the way. call or come in and talk with us today. now for the side show. first up he may have been dubbed one of the more bland candidates of the 2012 race but former governor tim pawlenty of

minnesota showed he can let loose a little on the colbert report last night. he explained his reasons for stepping out. >> why did you drop out after ames? >> i was out of money and came in third place behind michele bachmann and ron paul. i think that is enough for any one person to endure. >> right. >> wow. these candidates always look better after they're out of the race. remember those lyrics, freedom is just another word for nothing left to lose. >> let's make some news. >> all right. is there someone you would like to endorse in the 2012 race? >> you. >> i'm not running. i'm more like sarah palin. i'm a television personality. >> leave it to colbert to get the last word on that one. now to tomorrow night's big event. president obama's big jobs speech. last week republican representative joe walsh opted to boycott the speech deciding

to spend this thursday night, tomorrow night in his home state of illinois. well he now has fellow republicans following his lead. what is louisiana senator david vitter planning for tomorrow night? >> i'm going to be watching from my family room in louisiana because i have a saints game party there and i'm absolutely going to be there for the big game. kickoff of the saints season and the whole nfl. as a fan-atic i have my priorities. >> of course he was known for different kinds of parties in the past. if that is not enough where will georgia representative paul brown be during obama's address tomorrow night? well, in his office across the street. well, i say rather than joining his colleagues on the capital brown will be sitting in his office posting comments about the president's address on twitter. the georgia congressman did the same thing during this year's state of the union address. here's what i think. if these people refuse to respect public office they should stop calling themselves the honorable before their name. just dump the whole pretense of shared public duty.

that's what i say. by the way, speaking of twitter i'll be tweeting tonight during the gop debate in real time and you can follow me at hardball underscore chris. i'll be doing round by round. fun from up here. up next we saw rick perry do his walkthrough the debate stage earlier today and tonight we'll see him for the first time in a debate. what can we expect from the texas governor? a big show tonight. the next voice we'll hear is his. you're watching "hardball" in the reagan presidential library with republican presidential candidates debating right here tonight. [ male announcer ] heard this one?

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i'm bertha coombs with your cnbc market wrap. stocks come storming back on better news out of europe breaking a three-day losing streak. the dow-jones industrial soaring

275 points. the s&p 500 adding 33, and the nasdaq up 75 points. germany's highest court ruling that the country's participation in bailouts for its struggling neighbors is constitutional. that went a long way toward easing fears about the debt crisis there. and we saw companies with significant international exposure in today's rally. investors shrugging off a beige book report from the federal reserve that showed the pace of recovery slowing in lots of areas in the country but financial surging with bank of america out in front after it makes major changes at the top its executive list. and a solid rally for some of the smaller banks as well. an analyst's upgrade out of deutsche bank. finally, yahoo gaining after firing ceo carol bartz amid relentlessly sluggish ad sales. had a falling out with its chinese partner ali baba that firing coming in a phone call. that's it from cnbc first in business worldwide. now back to "hardball."

welcome back to "hardball." tonight's debate is right here and all eyes are going to be on rick perry the clear front runner in all of the polls right now. this is going to be his first big appearance or first appearance of any kind in debate with his fellow candidates. what does perry need to do tonight or avoid doing? wayne slater is the senior political writer for "the dallas morning news" and republicans join us, mark mckinons a former adviser to president george w. bush bush and john mccain. also founder of no labels an organization dedicated to putting party labels aside in politics. we are not doing that tonight. this is the republican debate. >> of course not. >> i want you to listen or watch the following. here are some of rick perry's most talked about comments in the last month starting with criticism of ben bernanke. let's all listen to rick perry. >> if this guy prints more money, between now and the

election, i don't know what you all will do to him in iowa, but we would treat him pretty ugly down in texas. i mean, printing more money to play politics at this particular time in american history is almost treasonous in my opinion. i do believe that the issue of global warming has been politicized. i think there are a substantial number of scientists who have manipulated data so that they will have dollars rolling into their projects. you know, it's a theory that is out there. it's got some gaps in it. but in texas we teach both creationism and evolution in our schools. >> ask him why he doesn't believe in science. >> i figure' smart enough to figure out which one is right. >> i'm actually for gun control.

use both hands. [ applause ] >> mark mckinnon i guess the question is, will that kind of raw meat for the right, which does work with the republicans and the people in the fundamental right who don't believe in evolution, don't like climate change, like guns, that sort of person, and there are a lot of them, is that risky business for a guy who wants to run for president? >> it's a little bit risky and i think both governor perry and his aides know that he needs to dial it back about five or ten degrees. that he came out of the chute a little hot. but, chris, i think that this is one debate where the hype is actually merited. there is so much at stake for governor perry and all eyes are on him tonight. it reminds me of the debate where pawlenty, you know, was with romney and didn't take the shot when it was teed up and as a result of that debate pawlenty's fortunes plummeted and that is why he is out of the race now. those are the stakes rick perry has tonight. if he just does well, then i

think he's in for the long run but if he has any big problems tonight it could sink his campaign fast. so a lot at stake. big stakes, big spotlight. as wayne can tell you he's only done four debates before. by the way, i remember when governor bush had his first debates, you know, how much was at stake there. i remember the very first press conference in new hampshire and you were there, chris, i remember him calling you out across the room. but it's big stakes and i know they've got to be nervous. it's a big deal. >> yeah. you know, i guess the best position to be in in any debate is the under dog. you're not going to do well. pawlenty's problem was he hyped up. going after romney care and obama care and all that. he didn't do it. he became a wuss and lost the whole thing. do you buy the fact that mark just said that rick perry has to do anything tonight or just be a reasonable, slow talking gary cooper type and not screw up? >> i think the second. that's what he has to do. mark's right. his aides said you got to turn down the cowboy a little bit. turn that down a little bit. look a little more presidential. >> he's got his boots on by the

way. >> i saw that. >> going to be that much of a cowboy. >> there you go. the deal is he knows you have to be a fighter. this tea party crowd wants somebody who goes against barack obama and perry's instinct, natural instinct is there is a saying in texas that if you're burning bridges behind you it's not a problem if you don't retreat. and he doesn't retreat. >> do you think he could be a success tonight if he simply puts a couple hard singers at the president and deflects all the attacks from the right? >> i think you have to deflect those attacks. obviously you have to go after barack obama. it's going to be easy right here. the other thing he has to do is if he is punched or perceived as being perceived say either romney talks about the in state tuition to help children of illegal immigrants or if he talks about the career politicians perry needs to show i go after him. mark was right on that one point absolutely. don't be a pawlenty here and look like when you're standing

next to the guy and romney and perry will be standing next to each other, don't look like a wuss. >> let's talk about political tactics. it seems to me that one of the most successful tactics in warfare or political warfare is the attack from a defensive position. your best position in a debate is to wait for your opponent to take a shot. at the moment he takes a shot or she takes a shot, she's exposed. you come back with a thundering counterpunch whether it's there you go again or something like that it just levels the person. >> right. >> isn't that the great opportunity that rick perry has tonight? he knows they're coming for him. >> i think it is and i do think that the premium is on being reasonable, calm, and assured and confident but i also think the surprise could be that perry will wind up and throw a few. and maybe not just offensively either. as wayne said it's his instinct to be very aggressive. he likes to start a fight. >> well, here he is. here is an example of rick perry

action at the tea party rally april two years ago on the possibility of texas seceding from the union. by the way, he is running for president of the union right now. let's listen. >> texas is a unique place. when we came into the union in 1845 one of the issues was if we would be able to leave if we decided to do that. my whole visit america and washington in particular pays attention. we got a great union. there is absolutely no reason to dissolve it. but if washington continues to thumb their nose at the american people, you know, who knows what may come out of that? >> well, chris, it's all historic nonsense as you know. and mark knows. there was no agreement when texas joined the union that it could flip out whenever it wanted to. that was what the civil war was all about. it was allowed to break into smaller states if it wanted to but that was part of the agreement. how does he get away with this sort of horse manure? >> it's great.

>> most of that is considered sedition. >> no. basically this is tough talk. >> that's all it is. ma larky. >> his problem, it's malarky but historical. >> yeah. >> but basically the guys who listen to it don't listen -- they listen to you but what they care about is that somebody is talking tough and saying this kind of stuff. i was there at that rally. they loved every bit of what he said on the stage when he yelled state's rights, state's rights, state's rights. >> mark, is any candidate for office at any level ever lost because of something they said before the campaign? in this era, even of videotape, when you're able to fix things as you go along, isn't it possible that he can modulate, moderate, move to the center successfully or not? >> this is something i really agree with you on chris. >> i'm asking. i don't know the answer. >> i thought i heard you say it on another program or earlier. but i do believe that perry and other candidates, i hear the attacks on his record and i can easily see how he's going to be

able to deflect a lot of this like the secession issue. i think people are going to judge him based primarily on his performance and plan for the future. there's a lot out there on his record. no question about that. wayne knows all the specifics and there's a lot to chew on but i just think that people are going to largely give that a pass and look at what he's talking about going forward. >> especially if he's running against pawlenty or pawlent. pawlent is still in the race. pawlenty is gone. thank you. up next, the three things to watch in tonight's debate. we'll make it very simple. you're watching "hardball" from the reagan presidential library. a very beautiful part of the country where the debate begins in a little over two hours from now. [ kimberly ] when i was 19, i found myself alone

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we're back. the debate here at the reagan library is coming up soon set to begin in a couple hours. it is going to be a big night. this is going to be the one that matters. it's about the newly minted front runner rick perry and >> can we expect a sharp attack? actually for someone to get into the race and break through as candidates. some aren't even there yet. talking about three things we should all be looking for tonight, we got the politico reporters, maggie haggerman and

jonathan martin, both from politico. which has become a key organ of this political year. maggie, your thoughts on perry. he marched out here. he has his cowboy boots on. he has all his hair. he looks to be in pretty good shape. he is the right age to run for president. he has that sort of texas swagger, that's not a negative. what does he need to do tonight besides look good? >> he has it put some of the swagger away. he can't hear the violence against ben bernanke and those types of things on the trail. he needs to look presidential. he needs to deliver a message, stick to that message. he needs to talk about the attacks. >> so dignity. >> dignity would be a high point. >> let's move it around fast. romney, doesn't he stand in danger, if he continues to last couple days of saying, i don't even notice that this guy is killing me. acting this debener manner of

saying, yeah, fine. . does he run the danger of being pawlenty here, the guy who got knocked out a couple weeks ago by not fighting? >> i think you will see subtle lines of contrast with perry. he won't mention perry's name out of the gate but i think you will hear career politician from romney. >> wait, okay. . career politician, you, buster, tried to be a career politician. you ran for the senate, you lost. you ran for governor and couldn't get re-elected again. now running for president for the second time. you've been running for office for 20 years. career politician. >> but you've run four times in the last two decades. >> how is he not a career politician? he's been running for office all his life. >> when romney starts going down that road pb perry hears that. it sets off bells in his hears. perry won't take that. he will respond. once perry responds then you will have a real back and forth between those two. do romney folks expect perry to throw that punch? i think he will make it easier

by going to the career politician. >> isn't that a maggie, what we call, i got the right word for television, isn't that wussy to use career politician when every single person watching television knows you're talking about the other guy. >> he hope issing he can fall back against his business record and he is hoping everybody out there doesn't know that. perry will be sure to remind them. everybody on stage well. >> perry says he lost jobs in massachusetts. >> that's true. romney will have a come back for that. he will hope to get around it. >> this has the makings of maybe the year of the woman this year in the beginning. sarah palin who may still get in it, doesn't look like he is in it now. and, michele bachmann came on like gang busters a couple weeks ago. pl maybe a month ago when she entered the race. >> there are two women that talked about in the debate. polling down below 10%. is michele bachmann really fading out of this campaign? >> oh, yeah. absolutely. i think tonight is a pivotal evening for her.

she needs a break-out performance to show she has the strenth to keep going into the fall. otherwise her donations will fall off. they're already falling off. i think rick perry is taking tea party support and sucking it up. >> they have a lifter down there for her. a platform. it happens all the time. she is two guys away from the action. the way it is set up up tonight, perry next door it romney. then somebody in between. how does she get in a fistfight between the two guys? how does she get in there. >> she needs have a contrast with perry. she needs a strong standing in iowa. >> so you look for that fight tonight. >> i don't know tonight. but if she wants it make a move, there's where she needs to go. >> i can't wait for that. >> she lost two top campaign aides. her campaign needs a second act and fast. >> ed rollins. who will hire ed rollins? which network?

thank you. it is great to have you on. the 1960 presidential debate between john f. kennedy and riksard nixon, that's what started all this business at the reagan hall in the library. headr of any car in america. from $10,990. the all-new nissan versa sedan. innovation upsized. innovation for all.

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let me finish tonight with the event that started all this. presidential debates of john f. kennedy versus richard nixon in

1970. the nbc studios in washington which is the scene of second debate. three men come walking into the front door and into studio a. they realize the room is fraezing. it's a freakin' meat locker in there. john kennedy wants it know what is going on. he remembers what is going on. he remembered how bad nixon looked in the first debate and why. kennedy's younger brother and protector, bobby, knew what was going on. he raced to the basement where the air conditioning system was. he found a man standing guard over the thermostat then he threatens to call the police if the guy doesn't get out of the way. you think all this is fun and games? think again. nixon looked terrible this n that first debate. with kennedy under the harsh camera lights in those days. after his recent hospitalization for a leg infection, all contributing to a very bad night for nixon in that first contest with kennedy. the kenny