hands over the plan. how does the president sell it to americans if he can't unite his party around it? michele bachmann still struggling to get some traction. she came out stronger against rick perry in the last debate. but did she go too far in linking hpv and that vaccine to mental retardation. among those concerned, ed rollins, her former campaign manager and adviser. he joins us this morning with a look at whether bachmann still stands a chance. calendar chaos. states are still scrambling for position in next year's primary schedule. the order matters big time if you are rick perry or mitt romney. it impacts strategy, momentum and most important to us reporters, whether we're ringing in the new year in des moines again. it's thursday, september 15th, 2011. this is "the daily rundown." i'm chuck todd. let's begin with the first read and it's the president's headache continued. almost on cue, here comes the democratic hand wringing. as the president continues to

push for his jobs plan. it's now congressional democrats signaling publicly that they're not on board. telling the "new york times" there's little chance they'll support a stand alone bill. just look at the names. pennsylvania senator bob casey. i think the american people are very skeptical of big pieces of legislation. he wants to break it up. west virginia senator joe manchin. we've got to have legislation supported by democrats and republicans. i'm going to have to look at it. by the way, both of those guys are up for re-election. and the president's trip to promote the bill yesterday in north carolina didn't sell that state's democratic senator. kay hagen was swept into office on obama's coattails in 2008 sort of took a pass from "the new york times" asked her about it. she said, quote, we've got to have legislation that is supported by democrats and republicans. i'm going to have to take a look tat as well. so here you go. democratic senators starting to hand wring a little bit. it's one thing to have joe manchion not on board. he's always sort of on the

fence. he and a ben nelson. bob casey, kay hagen. they are from swing states. that does say a lot. can the president keep going out there, keep going on the road, sell this whole bill while democrats back home sort of take a pause, try to take a step back. even harry reid while he said he's going to schedule a vote doesn't seem to be ready to own it. not good right now for the white house. today we get the first clues of how house republicans are going to respond to the president's bill when speaker john boehner delivers his own jobs speech to the economic club of washington. according to his office, boehner will focus on streamlining and reforming the tax code, limiting regulations and cutting washington spending. he'll also present a path forward for the supercommittee. among those with advice for the speaker, a guy who once held his job. nbc embed jamie novagrad caught up with newt gingrich and asked if he should bring up the bill

for a vote. >> what he should do is pass a series of bills designed to help the economy. if they don't like obama's approach, then they ought to show us their approach. >> interesting there, as far as speaker gingrich is concerned. he's saying, hey, it's one thing to oppose him. another thing you have to go out there and pass a whole bunch of your own legislation. what was interesting is yesterday jim demint was caught talking sort of politics and strategy publicly when he called what the president was doing a trap for republicans saying on one hand if they support him, then they own the economy with him. on the other hand if they appose him, he's going to be run against them and make congressional republicans his foil. so he recognizes the trap. the irony there? senate democrats do not. anyway, finally on the 2012 campaign trail, rick perry spent his day wooing evangelicals at the late jerry falwell's liberty university. then went to new york to woo celebrity businessman turned tea

party activist donald trump. a man who is always famous for dating gets lobbied by rick perry within hours after going to an evangelical school. anyway, the two in new york hobnobbed with madles at a fashion show. it's fashion week in new york. then dinner at a swanky restaurant. across the country, mitt romney took a few more attacks at him. >> governor perry in texas has said he's not in favor of building a fence. in addition, he granted in-state tuition breaks to illegals in his state. i think arizona has got it right. i think governor perry has got that one wrong. >> social security is not a ponzi scheme. we're not going to change it by sending it back to the states. governor perry in his book said, look, it's unconstitutional at the federal level. give it back to the states. >> but romney also played defense at that town hall in

tucson last night. one voter asked him why he won't say the massachusetts health care mandate was a mistake. he got a little fiery. >> your inability to put that away and say it was wrong, it makes it hard for me to decide to vote for you. >> that's okay. there are plenty of other people to vote for. >> since you put in obama care in massachusetts, the cost of health care is skyrocketing and continuing to skyrocket. it has to be wrong in massachusetts, just as obama care is wrong for the united states. >> first of all, you're wrong. and let me explain why i said that, all right. it's not obama care. we had ours in place before obama had his. four years before. massachusetts health care is the most expensive in the nation. and it was before our bill and it was after. >> as you can see when mitt romney has to defend that health care to republican and conservative audiences, he has a hard time with it. one thing he is clearly made the decision to do, though, is own it. all right. republicans weren't exactly dismissing the president's job

plan. that is until they heard he wanted new taxes to help pay for it. today it's house speaker john boehner's turn to lay out his party's prescription to get the economy back on track. kelly o'donnell is nbc news capitol hill correspondent. in the previews we've seen of boehner's speech, there certainly no talk of putting any money into the economy from the government. >> definitely not. i think when you talk about how the initial reaction to the president's plan as presented to congress, there was that sort of warmer tone. well, now things have sort of shifted, in part because the president's plan for paying for the programs in his set prove posals is about taxes. and john boehner and republicans don't think that's the answer. so the economic club of washington today, the house speaker will unveil what they call the gop's plan for america's job creators. it folk uss on some pretty classic republican ideas. trying to reduce regulation and taxes to stimulate those job

creators, as they like to call them. to have more confidence to hire new workers. now, he will talk about ideas which is closing the loopholes, which would be removing some of the ways people can deduct things from their taxes. but not increasing rates. so that's really kind of the new formulation that republicans have for trying to put some kind of a tax component in this. but anything that looks like stimulus, chuck, republicans are saying they don't believe it will work. not just opposition to the president but a belief that it just won't work. >> all right. kelly o'donnell on capitol hill. we'll be watching. the speech is around lunchtime today. kelly, thanks very much. >> you bet. all right. michele bachmann is trying to revive her campaign by aggressively attacking the front-runner rick perry. so far that effort in some quarters is doing more harm than good. ed rollins served as bachmann's campaign manager until recently. he joins me now. let me clarify something. your still a paid adviser to the

bachmann campaign? >> i'm not a paid adviser, but i still will help her in any way. i want her to win. i'll do anything i can to help her but i'm not on the payroll. >> you aren't on the payroll. all right. you said yesterday you thought bachmann made a mistake e88ing the hpv vaccine with mental retardation. can you explain, go back to how the campaign was run? how was this -- how would stuff like this be vetted when you would hear it at an event or town hall? >> you always have to basically take remarks that people offer to candidates, whether it was ronald reagan who i worked for for many years or any other candidate. people walk up and they say things. and i think one of the key things we've tried to do with mrs. bachmann is make sure everything is vetted. obviously, she is someone who cares deeply about people. a woman walked up to her and said my child had this vaccine. she became mentally retarded after that. you need to check that out. you don't make a broad statement like that when, obviously, science argues just the

opposite. the critical point that i tried to make was that, obviously, she had scored a very good point on perry on an executive overreach by him by executive order, making this vaccine for all young people in the state. and, obviously, that's the line she should have kept on. also there was a question of cronyism where his chief of staff represented a company that made the product. those were good points. she made them in the debate and should have stuck on those points. >> here's rick perry yesterday responding to some of bachmann's criticism while with virginia governor bob mcdonald. >> i think that was a statement that was no truth and no basis in fact. and, look, i hate cancer. and that's what this has always been about for me. did i handle this wrong? i have readily admitted that i should have done it a different way. we should have had an opt-in instead of an opt-out. but at the end of the day, i am always going to be erring on the

side of life. >> rick perry has suddenly reversed his position saying, i was before it was the executive order, he said he shouldn't have done, gone the legislature. now he's saying, hey, he should have had an opt-in rather than an opt-out. so score one for bachmann and santorum in this case? >> i think so. there's no question. there's a lot of things who governor perry, who most don't know about even though he's been governor for ten years, and we'll find out more in the course of the debates. the positive thing is he admitted he made a mistake. the legislature overruled him before. it's never wrong to admit you made a mistake. i think that's a good thing. >> we've seen since perry got in the race, bachmann's support has basically been cut in half. she went from 16 to 8 in one month, basically all because of the perry entrance. >> no question about that. they fight for the same base, which is the evangelical vote

and tea party vote. her path is the same path it was when i started running her campaign back in june. she has to win iowa. she won the straw poll. she has to win the caucus. if he wins the calk urks she's ghak the game. all the focus has to be on raising money, doing well in the debates, which i think she can do and getting back to iowa and winning that caucus, which is very important come next december, january, twhaefr may be. >> so if it's all about iowa, that means for her it's all about rick perry. ignore mitt romney at this point. go after rick perry? >> he's the one that took her votes away. that's her base. romney has a certain base, somewhere in the neighborhood of 25% to 30% of the vote. she probably is not going to get that. she's got to go after that same vote that perry now temporarily is holding. >> you know, as you've been looking when you were in this campaign, how much, how concerned, for instance, were you that michele bachmann was never going to be viewed as the most electable conservative going forward? how important do you think

electability is going to be to the republican primary electorate? ange >> at the end of the day republicans are going to vote for who they think can beat obama. there's a long way to go in this campaign. it's a very short season so far. she got into this race three months ago, won the straw poll when no one said she could. she's got five months to basically win the iowa caucus. she is the best retail politician of all the candidates in this, and i think to a certain extent, day by day, anyone that's followed her or day by day when she meets voters. there's a long way to go before we pick a nominee. >> does she have to prove herself as electable? >> no question. i think you do that by getting votes. there's a path out of iowa. she has to raise money to go beyond that. i think those are the focus is now debate, fund-raising and iowa. >> ed rollins, former campaign manager, former adviser, sort of now volunteer, i guess. is that the best way to describe you? >> i'm always at the end of a

telephone for anybody in that campaign. they are my people and i care very deeply about her. >> ed, thank you. coming up, republican primary calendar chaos. just about everyone wants to be a key early voting state. once again. that's not new. some states are moving up their date dates. it has a big impact on campaign spending, campaign momentum and most importantly, whether we're all in iowa for the holidays. we'll break it all down next. first, a look ahead at the president's schedule today. one of the great things presidents get to do. he's awarding the medsal of honor to dakota meyer, a marine corporal. a man from kentucky. one of the new new living medal of honor winners. we'll be right back.

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remember back in 2008 when the democratic party punished big states like michigan and florida for putting their presidential primaries too early? well, republicans are trying to get tough, too. their party rules will strip half the delegates from any state besides the traditional early birds, iowa, new hampshire, south carolina and republicans went ahead and added nevada this time. that go before march 6th. the time that they want to dedicate super tuesday. but we already have arizona jumping. they jumped the deadline. they set its primary for february 28th. florida is currently slated in their law for january 31st and a handful of other states that also want to share the early state spotlight. josh putnam is a political science professor at davidson college. he runs a great blog, front loading hq.com. and, of course, mark murray is

the deputy nbc news political director. all right. i got to start with you, josh because mark and i have to make our holiday plans, okay? so let's begin. we do know this. the arizona decision does mean one thing. it means that iowa at least will be some time in the middle of january at the earliest. is that fair to say? >> right. i mean it sets up a situation where iowa at the latest is going to come, you know -- the best case scenario at least from the republican national committee's perspective is that they come and that last week or so of january. so either the 23rd or the 30th. at the latest. >> mark, we've been obviously following this closely. with the arizona decision, they want to go the 28th, the week before super tuesday. will arizona be, and we saw all of a sudden yesterday, michele bachmann was there raising money. mitt romney looked like he was

campaigning. they clearly see arizona as one of those states they have to do well in. >> right, chuck. that's precisely why governor jan brewer wanted to have an early contest there so arizona got attention. remember in 2008, it kind of came down to the southwestern state. and for that early primary between nevada and arizona. nevada with harry reid's help ended up winning. but arizona, particularly because the issue of immigration really wants to play a role in the republican primary. really wants to shape the issue agenda. >> all right, josh. so let's -- shoe number one to drop was arizona. they decided to go in late february and there was some talk they would move up to january. so the second shoe is the florida decision. because when florida makes its decision about when it's going to be, they seem to have agreed that they will move it later. they just haven't agreed how much later. and there's been some talk that they are working with south carolina to try to come up where they can both agree to dates. what more do you know about that? >> we've heard this talk about

kind of an alliance so to speak between south carolina and florida. most of that talk seems to be coming from south carolina's end of that. what we know at this point right now is that florida, yes, it looms over this process. it's going to wait as long as it can to make a decision. they have until october 1st to do that. i think the indication they are going to wait this out as long as they can is that the committee charged with making the decision before october 1st is a nine-person commission that can be named by the governor, the speaker of the house and the senate president has not even been named yet. so, again, that's some indication that they have some kind of contingency plans in mind that they'll put this committee in place really quickly. maybe at the last minute and kind of ratify that decision just based on whether other states have fallen in line. >> mark murray, once that decision is made, then we know it all falls into the hands of bill gardner. he's the secretary of state in new hampshire and sort of the

protector of the first in the nation status. so, mark murray, he told our nbc embed joeling kent that while he believes the arizona development means we will at least get a two-week reprieve in january, he's concerned about a handful of other states before he wants to make his decision. >> well, right. so you are talking about states like michigan, for example. and even missouri which was actually considering moving back beyond the march 6th date. now there's some legislation that has all stuck up and so we just don't know. we're watching a handful of states. but, chuck, florida is going to be hugely key as we've talked about many, many times before. it's very possible that mitt romney ends up winning new hampshire. rick perry wins iowa. rick perry also wins south carolina. mitt romney doing well in nevada. it's almost kind of a even steven 2-2 tie. and then it goes to florida. and whoever has that momentum coming out of florida, that could really matter. >> all right, josh. so let's look at what we think the calendar could be.

we know iowa is going to be first. you had it as late as january 30th. i've had some folks say to me think martin luther king weekend which was the 2004 calendar. and then eight days later, new hampshire. so instead of a five-day break like four years ago, going back to the eight-day break. and then the question i have is, what is your understanding would south carolina go ten days later, two saturdays after new hampshire or one saturday after new hampshire? >> that's a tough question to answer at this point. a lot of it, i think, depends on what happens with new hampshire. how much of a stickler bill gardner wants to be with that. according to their state law, they have to have a seven-day buffer on either side of the date that they choose. so again, south carolina will probably fall in line first. new hampshire will follow them. what we do know based on past precedent with south carolina is that they have had saturday primaries in the past. they may end up going as they did in 2008 on the same day as

new hampshire. as much as, you know, four days later than wherever new hampshire ends up. the saturday after it. or they could be the following saturday or tuesday after that. >> and then the other phenomenon, josh, very quickly is the fact there's actually a whole bunch of states now that are going to move back. new jersey being the biggest one. >> right. again, we're hearing all about the folks that are leapfrogging, right? the arizonas, michigans, georgias or floridas of the world. what we're not hearing about is how there are so many states this psyche whole have decided to comply with the rules. we've seen a majority of states that were positioned because of their state laws in february, were required to move back. into march or later. and they have done so. moving primarily be-based states have moved back into march and some of the more blue states have moved back to april, may and june. >> and mark murray, i'm looking at this early calendar. if it calls the way we think it's going to fall, that's a

rick perry calendar. >> it really is, chuck. so we talked about the importance of florida. but after florida, the way that super tuesday is shaping up, there are many southern states that go. then that week after super tuesday, you have a couple more southern states. so there is the potential that rick perry could have a very good march. of course, we don't know what the calendar is going to look like. but there is potential if rick perry ends up doing very well, that he could have a big march which is why florida is so important. >> to mitt romney. mark murray, josh putnam, thanks, both. this is fun to watch. we might get some resolution in the next two weeks. up next, a rogue trader casts swiss bank ubs $2 billion. could it tank wall street's three straight days of gains? we'll get the market rundown next. plus, perry under pressure. did campaign contributions influence the governor's decision to mandate those hpv vaccines for young girls? we're following the money trail between perry and the drugmaker

merck. first today's trivia question. how long do you have to serve in the u.s. house of representatives before becoming eligible to be speaker? tweet me the answer, @chucktodd and @dailyrundown. the answer and more is coming up. ♪ ♪ [ multiple sounds making melodic tune ]

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new data inflation and unemployment is out before the opening bell. courtney reagan joins me now with the market runtown. most important thing i wanted to hear about were the weekly jobs number. >> the initial jobless claims came in up 11,000 to 428,000. and that's a lot more than economists had been expecting. that's also marking a two-month high. and kind of adding insult to injury, the labor department also issued an upwardly revised number from last week's jobless claims. so that means more americans filed for jobless benefits than

previously thought. and for the jobs picture to start showing signs of hope, economists want that jobless claims number to stay below 400,000. and except for one week in august, claims have stayed above that every week since early april. but there was consumer prices, too. and that was out and it revealed it rose 0.4% for the month. higher than expected, showing a bit more inflation than what had been anticipated. the philadelphia fed survey, that's the one that measures manufacturing cons in the mid-atlantic regions, that's due out at 10:00 a.m. eastern time. and that's also something that a lot of traders are going to be watching because last month it was very negative. the worst we'd seen in over two years. >> all right. thank you, courtney. we'll be watching the markets. sounds like it's going to be a rough day.

bottom of the hour. quick look at what's driving the day. president obama will present the medal of honor to former marine dakota meyer today. meyer has been cited for his valor that saved 36 lives from an ambush in afghanistan two years ago yesterday. dakota and the president had a beer at the request of dakota meyer. they had a beer at the white house. dakota meyer is from kentucky. so senator mitch mcconnell will also be in attendance. house speaker john boehner will outline his plan to get more americans working again during a speech to the economic club of washington later today. and then the opening bell has rung on wall street. dow futures were up again today

as investors hope a week of market gains continues. but you heard about those horrible unemployment numbers. we'll see what that does. as the republican front-runner for president, the attacks on rick perry are starting to add up. so are a different set of numbers as reporters dig into this claim from monday night's debate. >> the company was merck. and it was a $5,000 contribution that i had received from them. i raise about $30 million. and if you are saying that i can be bought for $5,000, i'm offended. >> michael isakof. it wasn't $5,000. that's the number one aspect of this. lay through this the relationship between rick perry and merck. >> right. >> it's complicated. >> complicated and a lot more extensive than perry led on. in fact, $28,500 is the amount of merck contributions to

perry's gubernatorial campaign. in addition, there were about $377,000 that were contributed by merck to the republican governors association during a period that perry was the chairman of the organization. and its finance chairman. so this, you know, you put it together. you got over $400,000, far more extensive than perry was indicating. >> let's look at what merck was up to at the time. merck was on a lobbying campaign. so they were probably given a bunch of the dga, too. they were trying to get states to do what rick perry did which is mandate the vaccine. >> nationwide lobbying to mandate this vaccine. it would have made texas the first state to do so. the first in the country. and, you know, the other piece of this, which has gotten a lot of attention is merck hires, as part of this lobbying campaign, mike toomey, perry's former chief of staff as its chief lobbyist in austin. and there's an e-mail trail

showing about a half a dozen e-mails from toomey's office to the governor's office during the time that this executive order was being prepared. >> what merck was up to, they thought if we can get a conservative republican governor in the south, a big state like tex thaerks dominos will fall and a whole bunch of other states will follow. that seemed to be the effort. >> would have been a huge coup. what this has done. >> and big money to merck. >> of course. they could have made hundreds of millions if not billions from this. but what -- i think what this really has done is open the door to the crony capitalism charge that has sort of plagued perry for the last several cycles in his gubernatorial campaigns. and to an extent there's always been this pay to play culture in texas. >> southern governors in general. this tripped up bill clinton back in the day. >> of course. and you know, the question always is, how far does it go? and with perry, the allegations are and there's plenty of

examples of it taking it -- of him taking it to the outer limits. you look at the contributions to perry's gubernatorial campaign where there are no limits in texas. 2.5 million from bob perry, that huge texas land builder. herald simmons opens -- runs a nuclear waste dump in west texas. $1.1 million. what does he get? state approval from perry. so there's example after example where this has come up and you are going to see as the campaign unfolds each of these issues being dissected and perry having to answer for. >> one thing republicans always warn me of, it's an opposition research guy who is the campaign manager. matt rhodes who knows how to string together things. >> they have their handsful. how much traction does it have in a republican primary as opposed to the general election. >> michael isikof, thank you.

>> this is his office. mike, good to see you. while the president's job's plan wasn't immediately shot down by republicans, they didn't exactly jump on board either. with house speaker john boehner set to outline his plan today, how will congress proceed with getting more americans back to work? we're joined by south dakota republican senator senator thune. i want to start with something jim demint said yesterday. he called the president's jobs bill a political trap. he said if we support it, we're in bed with him on this economy and we own it with him. we oppose it, we give him something to run against. two cynical of a way to look at it? >> chuck, i think all of us want to see the economy get back on track. and i think that republicans are willing to work with the president on policies that would accomplish that. but in order to get good permanent, good paying jobs out there you have to have permanent or at least predictable good policy. most of us have real questions about -- obviously, we have great questions about everything the president has done to date.

this new proposal, we think, too, could be just more of the same and not lead to greater job creation and economic growth. so there's going to be -- it's received a cool response here on capitol hill, not only from republicans but from a lot of democrats as well. >> you've said something that some people could have read into it as you could be supportive of it when you said this. i'd like to mend, improve and modify, okay? mend. how would you modify the president's plan that would still maybe keep the support of the president but get your support? >> i think it's going to be really hard to take much of what the president put forward there and improve it and mend it and modify it in a way republicans could be for it. i do think -- >> what about you? what about what you could be for? >> same with me. i think the president touched on some things in his speech last week that republicans took some encouragement from. and one was talking about tax reform. there's a lot of support up here among republicans for a

broad-based comprehensive tax reform that would lower rates on businesses and individuals in this country. i think the president has indicated at least a willingness to go there but at least in this proposal he's put forward he's going to raise taxes to pay for it and the payroll tax cut that he's proposed was tried last year and hasn't demonstrated to do much in terms of creating jobs. and it's another short-term thing. i think most of us want to see long-term policies, chuck. so i think it will be really hard to take anything that the president has put forward so far unless he's willing to move in a different direction with regard to tax reform and get much republican support for it. and i would guess it's going to be difficult, at least with some of his democrat allies in the senate to get them on board either. >> i want to go to tax reform. you guys don't seem that far apart on tax reform where the president is. everybody seems to want to -- everybody seems to be on board this idea that the general idea, you lower rates and close loopholes. so, you know, i am -- maybe i'm being too optimistic. it sounds like you guys are a

lot closer than maybe you think. >> i think the devil is in the details on all of these things. at least what he's saying, if he is sincere about that, yes, there are a lot of republicans out there. we have the highest corporate tax rate in the world. it's making us noncompetitive with other countries around the world. our worldwide taxation system is different from all the other major industrialized country who have a territorial system of taxation when it comes to business taxes. those are all things that we believe would do a lot to get the economy growing again. i think that broad -- tax reform that broadens the bairx lowers rates, could lead to significant economic growth, which is what we all want to see. but the president seems to be more intent on nipping around the edges of this and doing things very short term in their orientation. we need long-term policies that create predictability and that will help our businesses make decisions long term in nature. >> is there no short-term idea out there that you want to get behind? i mean, this is -- we just got

the report today. another 428,000 people filing claims for unemployment. it seems like there's a lot of people that would like a short-term fix. even if it's a band-aid right now while dealing with the long term. >> and i think what most people want to see is see the economy recover and people go back to work. what we've seen from the things that have been tried, they have failed so far. the president's policies have failed when it comes to getting people back to work. we've lost 1.7 million jobs since the last stimulus bill passed. short term, let's get the trade agreements passed, put a moratorium on regulations and at least do something on taxes that can be not only a long-term solution but also something that i think would get businesses investing -- >> no government money into the economy? no speeding up the highway bill? no front loading some transportation projects for maybe -- would you be for some of that stuff? >> i think that getting a long-term highway reauthorization is really important, as is getting the faa reauthorization through here. and those would be things that i think there would be good

bipartisan support for. i'm not suggesting there aren't things you couldn't do in the near term. what i'm saying from a business standpoint, what they need is economic certainty. and that means good long-term policies. >> all right. senator john thune, i've got to leave it there. republican from south dakota. good talk with you. >> you, too, chuck. see you. despite what you may be hearing and reading, president obama's base is not abandoning him. in fact, the latest poll number shows more americans are open to the white house's jobs plan. what's with all the doom and gloom on capitol hill? we'll ask our panel next. first, the white house soup of the day. i believe yesterday was chicken noodle. so did they save the chicken and throw in chipotle spice and make is chicken tortilla? you're watching "the daily rundown." where'd ya go? there you are. there you go. [ female announcer ] you always went for the tall, dark, handsome types.

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financial crisis in modern times. certainly the largest financial disaster in decades in this country. and perhaps the end of an era in american business. >> well, talk about an understatement, even at the time. the daily flashback to this day in 2008 when just after midnight, investment giant lehman brothers filed for bankruptcy protection. by frar tar the largest bankrupn u.s. history, particularly when the government decided not to bail it out. capitol hill looking into why one of the stimulus packages didn't come to fruition. how nervous should the white house be? archer davis say former democratic congressman from alabama. beth rhinehart and jeff is a national correspondent for "the new york times." i'm going to get to you in a minute. explain the democratic hand wringing and the history of

this. jeff, it's in "the new york times." we had the wrong quote up about joe manchin. i want to correct something. he said, i have serious questions about the level of spending president obama proposed. joe manchin being against it. no shock there. bob casey, kay hagen, pete defazio upsaid about the tax breaks in here. can't unite democrats. how does he sell this on the road? >> in some respects, you know, they are talking to a couple of different audiences here. when president obama is out in ohio, virginia, he's trying to fire up the base. he's saying pass this bill, several dozen times since the speech. he's trying to fire up his base. legislatively, a lot of these senators and members are thinking of their own self-preservation. they know that president obama is not very popular back in pennsylvania or north carolina. so they are trying to keep some appropriate distance. at least to make it look like that there's some skepticism or that they are not completely

signing on to this. but, you know, senator manchin is one thing. senator bob casey, he's one of the president's closest friends in the senate. >> early endorser. >> shows that pennsylvania is very tough right now for this white house. >> beth, in "national journal," your publication you had a different type of hand wringing. more on the campaign strategic side. bill burton who runs one of the super pacs in support of the president. they need to put on their war paint and get ready for what is going to be a battle. it's going to be impossible for the president to win. one of the explanations out of new york 9 was an enthusiasm issue. >> sure. and i think, you know, media is not such a bad thing as what burton told me for people to realize what's at stake here and to push the panic button. maybe that's what it's going to take to get people to roll up their sleeves. you are seeing some of the president's most important allies in labor, you know, suggesting that they are going to be working on their own

issues and less about his re-election. and so i think that sounding the alarm is strategic on their part. >> congressman, you've been on both sides. represented a district very democratic and ran statewide, not so democrat nick bic in ala. you understand the line that a joe manchin is walking but at the same time, white house has to be wondering, where are my friends? >> barack obama's numbers have gone backwards with blue collar whites, whites who supported hillary clinton in the late primaries in 2008. his numbers have already gone backwards with independents. if you are a bob casey, obviously if you are a manchin, a kay hagen, a claire mccaskill, you have no shot of being re-elected unless there's a chunk of white voters out there who do not vote for barack obama but decide to vote for you. >> okay. but what is the evidence that that happens? that doesn't -- more often than not, it's an exception, not the

rule. at the end of the day -- >> politicians are very good thinking that they are the exception, not the rule. the president has got to figure out how to say to this group of moderate whites who actually vote forward him against mccain but have had doubts about him, i'm still your guy. you should still trust me. it's not working right now. >> congressman davis, beth, jeff, stick around. we're going to talk a little 2012 after the break. first, how long do you have to serve in the u.s. house of representatives before becoming eligible to be speaker? the question is no time at all. you don't even have to be a member of the house to be elected speaker. the closest we came to something like that, henry clay was actually chosen to be speaker on the first dave his first session in congress. that's something that had never been done before or since. we'll be right back. you are watching "the daily rundown." that can help lower cholesterol and who ordered the yummy cereal? yummy. that's yours. lower cholesterol. lower cholesterol.

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let's bring backourpanel. archer davis, beth reinhard, jeff sel knee. we have new polls out that rick perry surge is slowing a little bit, but still ahead. bloomburg has perry. still a four point difference between perry and romney. beth, that has to make mitt romney feel like he withstood the initial perry surge. >> i think romney has done really well in the last month considering the surge. he's held his own. maybe not being the frontrunner this early in the election cycle is not a bad thing. >> congressman davis, there's a southern factor here that will play in perry's favor in the primaries. explain it a little and how much you think mitt romney, particularly this primary calendar is going through south carolina, it's florida and mississippi, alabama, super

tuesday in georgia and texas. >> so much of politics is identity. i think we miss that. bill clinton was a white guy from arkansas. you thought he had to be a moderate. mitt romney is from massachusetts, a lot of republicans think he has to be a political moderate because of that. similarly, because rick perry is a rock rib southern texas guy, people figure he has to be a conservative. that identity factor is part of what's allowed him to get traction with the right of the party, although they don't know his record. obviously elect ability matters so much to republicans, they want to beat obama. >> you look at the electability, perry leads 49, 40. the hardest thing about quantifying it, republican voters are qualitative about it. >> you talk to republican voters, say who is the moet electability. they believe it, republican voters attending events in iowa,

they believe any of the eight candidates on the page could beat him. i think we see on electability at the end of the day, when it is time to pick a president, as a candidate said four years ago, hillary clinton versus barack obama, that people start to take more seriously and look at what they're doing more. interesting in the bloomberg poll, they like perry more than they like his positions. people are questioning some of his positions. i think the debates, he withstood two of them. he's had an upward rise in the first month. he has been a candidate for 3 three days, that's not very long. >> he has to improve at the debates. his advisers say that. >> shameless plug time. beth reinhard, what have you got? >> i'll plug my story, national journal magazine about florida, florsz, florida, in advance of the debates and straw poll in

orlando. >> they picked rick santorum. >> plug my favorite blog, josh putnam, he is one of the most interesting political bloggers out there, just the facts front loading hq. >> and it is chaotic. >> if mitt romney is nominee for president, don't be surprised if rob portman is next to him for value pay. >> heard that portman for vp. we will see if he is an elected official from the swing state. thank you all. that's it for this edition of "the daily rundown." coming up, chris jansing speaks to steny hoyer. and i'll be filling in at 1:00 for andrea mitchell. see you then. wanna know the difference between a trader and an elite trader?

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these are the reasons i quit smoking. [ male announcer ] ask your doctor about chantix. over 7 million people have gotten a prescription. learn how you can save money and get terms and conditions at chantix.com. her morning begins with arthritis pain. that's a coffee and two pills. the afternoon tour begins with more pain and more pills. the evening guests arrive. back to sore knees. back to more pills. the day is done but hang on... her doctor recommended aleve. just 2 pills can keep arthritis pain away all day with fewer pills than tylenol. this is lara who chose 2 aleve and fewer pills for a day free of pain. and get the all day pain relief of aleve in liquid gels. i'm richard lui. chris jansing is on assignment. ann curry reports from tehran

that there's little done to secure the release of the u.s. hikers imprisoned in iran. curry reporting a reporter for them is making bail arrangements for their release. a plane believed to be the one to fly them out of iran left forte ron yesterday, though the state department is refusing to comment. we will follow the latest on this here at msnbc. stick around for that. also, john boehner's time to layout his jobs plan. he will lay it out this afternoon. president obama continues to take his jobs push directly to the people. he toured a small business in north carolina yesterday, trying to drum up support for the $447 billion american jobs act. last night, he spoke at the congressional hispanic caucus gallon a, where he explained it would get hispanics back to work as well. >> the idea behind this bill is simple. to put more people back to work and put more money into the