good evening. i'm chris matthews down in washington. leading off tonight, florida, florida, florida. it determined who won in 2000 and has voted with the winner 11 of the past 12 presidential elections. and right now, president obama's in deep trouble down there. his approval rating in florida is under water, and he loses to mitt romney in a new poll, is that's not the only tough number out today, as we're all watching. look at this. the dow dropped almost 400 points today. and over the last two days, the dow has fallen nearly 700 points. and that's the backdrop to tonight's republican debate in florida. with grim news like this, how does the president turn things around? plus, build, baby, build. president obama takes his campaign for his jobs bill to the backyards of speaker john boehner and senate republican leader mitch mcconnell, and calls them out, by name. he's sounding and acting tough now, but can he get something done? also, tea party gop takeover continued. the house voted down a spending bill last night.

why? because republicans held down spending on disaster relief and then insisted on paying for it by cutting on a project democrats favored. and even then the tea party crowd decided it cost too much. can john boehner control his own right-wingers? and congressman emanuel cleaver took president obama to task on black unemployment this week. saying, "if bill clinton had been in the white house and failed to address this problem, we probably would be marching on the white house." well, tonight, two african-american scholars come on to defend the president's performance. and let me finish tonight with a moment of decision for president obama, and it's a big one. we start with the fight for florida. clarence page is a "chicago tribune" columnist and he starts off the discussions tonight. you know, you look at these numbers, clarence, and you and i have been through this a few rounds. here's the new quinnipiac florida poll, 57% disapprove of the president's performance, 39% approve. that's below 40. the worst score of any state the quinnipiac's been looking at.

the poll shows that 53% of florida voters say president obama does not deserve to be re-elected. that's kind of a punch. >> oh, yeah. and we know, though, that florida has taken it on the chin for years, because of the housing market in particular. and their -- >> all those empty condos, thousands of them. >> it's been devastating for them, and people take out their rage on the president. that's not news. what he's got to do is show that he cares, that he's doing something to try to help the situation. >> and i'm looking at all the factors. florida's great, because it's almost like the falling chads go down there. people of every accent, with southern accents, new york accents, all kinds of people live down there. south florida's retirement land, middle florida's youth land and economic development, and you've got dairy down there and everything. and the question is, what is turning that vote? is it the retirees' fear about the market going down? today's news? >> that's got to be part of it, the market, the real estate, the 401(k)s. there's the social security debate, which we could talk about.

but it's interesting, chris, you remember back in 2008, obama's team discovered a pocket of potential votes down by naples. and they discovered that while they were fighting it out with hillary clinton during the primaries. they approached that area and they turned it. it had gone for bush four years ago, and it went for obama -- >> and that's pretty well off. >> pretty well off, and heavy with retirees. around naples. >> i know that area. there's no breeze down there. very waspy. >> i know it too. my 80-year-old uncle lives down there, not a w.a.s.p., but definitely a retiree. >> i was generalizing it for us. >> but he's surrounded by people down there who's turned against obama now. >> i think a lot of people look at these numbers about the market. and they're looking at what they have saved and how much they've saved, say, in the last ten years after their kids have all gone to school and if they're empty nesters, they've got enough money to save and they see it dwindling. let's talk about these issues affecting him down there. let's talk about the issue of the social security.

you've got, tonight, rick perry coming on television, probably once again, having to defend his charge that it's a ponzi scheme. >> mm-hmm. >> it looks to me like mitt romney has a plan. bite on his ankle and don't let go. >> you can't blame him. rick perry is untested outside the texas. and what's the first thing that most of the country learned about him? that he thinks social security is a ponzi scheme. he's not the first republican to call it a ponzi scheme, but the first to run for office, with that being the first thing the public knows about him. >> and he called it unconstitutional, basically. >> oh, yeah. saying -- from the very beginning, he wants to re-fight the fight that went on in the 1930s. >> let's shift gears right now. matt kinney is the president of freedomworks. matt, thanks for joining us, as always. i want to show some poll numbers among florida voters. quinnipiac has rick perry out in front with 31%. mitt romney and the republican fight down at 22. so it's 31/22 among the leaders. the rest of the field, single digits. the head-to-head matchups with president obama are fascinating. mitt romney beats the president

rather handedly, 47 to 40. and by the way he's making a big pickup there. and he's running well ahead of the president and gaining on him. in a matchup between rick perry and the president is also a statistical tie. so even rick perry's doing quite well down there against the president. but there is a nine-point swing, with romney ahead by seven, perry down by two. let me ask you, among people with strong views about president obama, is electability and defeating the president a key issue or is it a peripheral issue? >> oh, i think electability matters a lot, because none of this matters unless you actually win and put a republican in the white house. >> so when mitt romney -- here's mitt romney, by the way, making that point. he's playing up his electability last night. let's listen. >> i'm going to be a republican candidate who can win. and i say that with significance. to beat the president, it's never easy to beat an incumbent. the best thing i can do to help republicans is to run a good

race as a president, and to make sure, by the way, that we get independents and women voters. >> you know, matt, i don't know you that well, but i've always thanked you for coming on this show and respect your strong views. and clearly, the question is gut, perhaps, versus calculation. people that have strong views about this president and don't really like him being in the white house, period, there may be all kinds of factors involved, but they really want him out of that white house deeply. will that drive them to pick someone who may not share their deep feelings about the president? in other words, pick someone who doesn't want him out as much as they do, but will get him out? >> well, the problem with mitt romney is his argument with electability is only about an inch deep. and i think and i think every tea party believes that good policy is good politics. and if we find a candidate that can both run a national campaign and be a credible candidate, but stands for something, stands for a set of values that really resonate with not just tea partiers, but independents, people who are worried about the

economy. people who believe that the government's gotten too big and are in the way of recovery and job creation, i think you've got to find both of those things if you want to beat president obama. >> is there an under-the-table kind of worry that if you pick romney, who talks your talk, because he wants to get the nomination, and somewhere down towards november, he begins to move to the center. and somewhere after he gets elected president, you begin to watch somebody become sort of the first george bush. much more establishment than you are in your heart. are you afraid of that? >> well, i think that's exactly what happened with john mccain and it's exactly what happened with bob dole. but i'm not sure that mitt romney's actually talking the tea party talk. certainly not like the other candidates are. certainly not on romney-care, and health care and the individual mandate is such a core value for tea partiers. i think he's got a real problem. >> well, isn't that a central issue, then?

i'm trying to read you on this. he was for in massachusetts exactly what you're against in the government, in obama. you don't like what he did? it's the same thing obama did. he required individuals to buy health insurance basically on government fiat. >> yeah, what i'm saying is we are interested in electability, but we don't necessarily believe that mitt romney is the electable one. because, again, we believe that good policy is good politics, and actually taking a stand on some of these big economic issues, even when it's difficult, even when it's uncomfortable, this is something that's going to resonate with independent voters that don't vote on a partisan basis. they vote based on whether or not they think you're an authentic guy that believes something and will do something. >> that's what i think, by the way. let's go to rick perry right now. he took a shot at mitt romney last night. let's listen to that shot. maybe it's along the lines you're talking here. >> we don't need to nominate obama-light we don't need to nominate someone who's going to blur the lines between president obama and our nominee. when you take a look at what mitt did from the standpoint of

romney-care in massachusetts, you're going to have a hard time finding a difference between obama care and romney care. >> obama lite. you know, somebody's doing good jobs coming up with those slogans. i used to do it, i think it's a great piece of work there. obama lite stings, doesn't it? >> certainly on romney care, and you got to know that the first debate between mitt romney, should he get the nomination and president obama, president obama will preemptively thank him for the idea of the individual mandate. and that undermines republicans one of the most potent arguments against the president. >> you mean, if it's romney versus obama, obama will just kiss him on the cheek during the first debate for giving him the idea, and that will undermine his whole challenge? >> absolutely. and that's why i think a lot of republican voters, a lot of tea partiers, a lot of independents, are looking for someone to fill that vacuum that mitt romney has

created by essentially being the establishment's front-runner. and maybe that's rick perry. maybe it's somebody else. i think the whole process is more decentralized, so maybe we don't know who it is yet. >> yeah, that's very cute and teasing, matt, but here we are, september, the iowa caucuses are coming -- you're smiling, you've got about three months. for somebody to come in now, tell me how anybody could come in. just give me a scenario. who might come in that would tickle your fancy more than perry, a tea partier? >> well, let's assume that there is this vacuum, and in politics, vacuums are filled, and if rick perry doesn't rise to the occasion, then somebody like a chris christie, and i know that you think that he's not running, or like a marco rubio, or like even a paul ryan, somebody will step up. and what's different today than the old days is that it's easier for someone to run the same kind of guerilla campaign that barack obama ran against hillary clinton, raise a bunch of small

dollar donations across america online, if they have that credible brand, that authenticity with the american people. >> i think you're talking with your heart, matt. but let me go back to clarence page here. clarence, you've studied campaign cycles for a long time, and as matt's correctly said, i don't think he's getting in now, because i think he would have done it. but you've got to put together a team that's going to win in iowa, you've got to be ready to slingshot yourself all the way to new hampshire, you've got to have some plan for south carolina. and chris christie's a northerner has to figure out how he gets through that south and still survives. >> it's hard to remember anybody since dwight eisenhower in '52 who came in this late or later than this. >> he came in like march of the election year. >> but he could do that, because he had that kind of popularity already. it was a very different era. look at rudy giuliani, he decided, i'll wait until florida

to get in, and he was dead by then politically, and just didn't get anywhere. it's hard to imagine anybody coming in this late. but this is an unusual year. perry is a strong front-runner because of the very first day he got in, he was up 27 points, whereas romney was around 17, 18. it's possible, but not likely. >> looks like rick perry still has some work to do with the tea party people, looks like he's got work to do with our guest tonight, matt kibbe. he'll probably be calling you soon and saying, how do i win you over, sir? matt kibbe, thank you, a man of the tea party who has still not been moved -- the earth hasn't moved for him yet with rick perry, as hemingway would say. anyway, clarence page, thank you so much. and a reminder, i'm on twitter tonight -- not a reminder, it's the first time i'm telling you, i'm on twitter tonight. i'll be live tweeting, just like i did during that reagan debate. i love doing it. i'm learning this. but there's nothing more fun, i've got to tell you, nothing more fun than watching a debate and honestly trying to call it as it goes on, like a referee in a fight.

in fact, like somebody sitting as a scorekeeper right behind the ropes. and that's where i'm going to be tonight for two hours watching that debate. coming up, president obama takes his campaign for jobs to a bridge over the ohio river. a functionally obsolete bridge that connects the home states of john boehner and mitch mcconnell, and not by accident. can the president make the republicans say yes to jobs on their home turf? you're watching "hardball" only on msnbc.

new poll numbers out of new hampshire. let's check the "hardball" scoreboard. it's mitt romney with a commanding lead. according to a poll out today from suffolk university. he's the hometown favorite. new hampshire is just one of the states romney has a house in. second place goes to ron paul, with 14 points.

and jon huntsman is up to ten watch that guy, he's gaining. more than doubling his standings in june. and if you're looking for more on twitter tonight, i'll be tweeting tonight on the republican debate. follow me on hardball underscore chris. the best of cascade powder and gel combined in one vessel. fire! ♪ [ mom ] wow! [ female announcer ] cascade complete pacs. love it or your money back. that didn't just hide your breakouts... but actually made them go away. neutrogena skin clearing makeup has our proven blemish fighting formula so it clears your breakouts. now that's beautiful. neutrogena®.

build bridges. look at that great graphic. welcome back to "hardball." for months, i've been saying president obama should identify construction projects, especially bridges where american workers can build, baby, build. roads that need fixing, bridges that are in danger of collapsing, and dare the republicans to vote against these projects and the jobs they create in their home areas. well, today president obama went all the way, took his fight for jobs on the road, conveniently to a location connecting the home of -- the home states of, i should say, speaker john boehner, ohio, and senate itch cconnell of kentucky, the brent spence

bridge connects cincinnati, ohio, with covington, kentucky, and has been deemed functionally obsolete by the federal government. it was built in the 1960s to accommodate 80,000 cars a day, but today more than 170,000 cars travel over it, sort of. they get congested every day. today the president called on republicans to pass his jobs bill. >> the bridge behind us just happens to connect the state that's home to the speaker of the house with the home state of the republican leader in the senate. now, that's just a coincidence. it's purely accidental that that happened. but part of the reason i came here is because mr. boehner and

mr. mcconnell, those are the two most powerful republicans in government. they can either kill this jobs bill or they can help pass this jobs bill. mr. boehner, mr. mcconnell, help us rebuild this bridge. >> well, senator sherrod brown's a democrat from ohio. welcome, senator. you're the kind of democrat i get, because you seem to be a guy that would like to get people working. and also, i think what the president's talking about, getting work done that needs to get done. not just the demand for work, but the supply of jobs out there that need to be filled. if these bridges are below code, if you have a traffic congestion that cannot be dealt with any other way, you need a new bridge. it seems to be a logical way to make a case for job creation. >> it's a lot of things. and in many ways, what we did in the 1940s, '50s, '60s, into the '70s, we built the greatest infrastructure the world had ever known, starting -- well, prior, certainly including president eisenhower interstates and all we did with bridges and

highways and all that. and we've let too much of it decay. when you look at what this is about, this is about putting people directly to work building bridges, putting steelworkers to work, making cable, making steel, and then setting the table, the foundation for eliminating that congestion and more efficient transportation. southwest ohio, cincinnati, has got some of the most important economic drivers in the nation. procter & gamble, kroger, which was, i believe, the largest grocery store chain now in the country. it's got wright pat air force basis. it's got all kinds of companies that rely on good transportation, good access to markets, and it matters for building long-term economic prosperity. that's why we had such great years in the '50s, '60s, with '70s in this country, because we built that infrastructure. >> we built the country. here's senator mitch mcconnell disagreeing with you, he's from kentucky, right near that bridge. he was quick to criticize the president's trip this morning. here he was on the senate floor

earlier today. let's listen. >> i would suggest, mr. president, that you think about ways to actually help the people of kentucky and ohio instead of how you can use their roads and bridges as a backdrop for making a political point. if you really want to help our state, then come back to washington and work with republicans on legislation that will actually do something to revive our economy and create jobs and forget the political theater. >> what a blast of bs. i don't usually say that about politicians, but what you just heard senator mcconnell say had no meaning whatever. everyone who's paid attention to politics has noted that the republicans do not negotiate, do not work together with the president. they have stiff-armed him, straight-armed him at every meeting he's gone to. they won't tail a take a 10-1 deal, they won't take any deal, and he has the nerve to say, come back and talk to us again so we can stiff you again and thump you one more time.

i guess they count on the american people not paying attention. it must be what this guy, mcconnell, has figured out. nobody's listening, so he can say what he wants. >> and i think as you know, as you can guess, like i can, chris, my guess is mitch mcconnell's not sat in traffic at rush hour, going south into kentucky or north into ohio. i-71 and i-75 meet right at the brent spence bridge and a half a mile north of there, and that bridge is not in good shape. i certainly hope there's never any serious, serious public health or public safety problems there. but i don't want to put my, just stick my head in the sand and hope the bridge lasts another ten years and we don't have to worry about it. another thing that's interesting there, under federal law and state laws, almost that entire bridge, although it spans the ohio river, is actually in the state of kentucky, because kentucky owns basically the, almost all the way across the river. and i wish that senator mcconnell would pay a little more attention to things in his

state, if he doesn't seem to care anymore about that bridge, his sort of dismissive comment about the president of the united states. >> let's talk about the reality of life in ohio, your state. you're up for re-election, and i'm thinking about the president. i don't know how he wins re-election without ohio. if he comes to pennsylvania, the election's over. he has to start by winning ohio to have a chance at re-election. you know how that works. i'm a nut, i've been watching ohio politics since i was a kid. to me, there's three interesting states, california, new york, and ohio. something about ohio is fascinating. can you figure out this state? do you understand how they're going to decide this election come next november for president? could they vote for a southern guy, a yahoo like perry? could they go that far? >> i think where president obama's going to win ohio, it's going to be hard, it's going to be heavily contested. karl rove's already been in the state, spent $700 or $800,000 just against me, let alone what he's going to do against the president. that's all fair game. i'm okay with that. ohio's a state where it's the

third largest manufacturing state in the country and everything flows from that. we know the middle class is strengthened when we make things. we don't make enough stuff in this country. a group of us did an announcement today about a currency legislation to level the playing field with china. we've lost, according to a new study, almost 3 million jobs, two-thirds of them manufacturing in the last decade because of bad trade policy with china. and my focus is everything is through the prism of how do you you create jobs, how do you give people the chance to go to work? an overwhelming number of people are unemployed, want to work and pay taxes and not draw unemployment. not spend all their time looking for a job. it's all about that. that's how you win ohio and that's how you build the country. my state has built this country during wartime and during peace, and we're proud of what we make in ohio. >> i think you're the paradigm. thank you very much. you may not like that word, but it's a good word for you. you're how the democrats ought to be right now. >> thanks. >> senator sherrod brown, a labor democrat from -- and i think you can be proud of that word.

>> i'm very proud of that word. >> up next, mitt romney wants you to think he's a regular guy. think he is, and don't be fooled. now he's getting teased for it. he's not exactly a regular guy. he's a quarter billionaire. coming up, you're watching "hardball" on msnbc. ♪ [ male announcer ] you never know when a moment might turn into something more. and when it does men with erectile dysfunction can be more confident in their ability to be ready with cialis for daily use. cialis for daily use is a clinically proven

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back to "hardball" now for the sideshow. first up, average joe? gop candidate and extreme millionaire mitt romney may be attempting to frame himself as such, but look out. people are already on to him. ready for this? let's check out some photo captions from a website called mitt's list. it parodies the candidate's more average american moments. here's one from last month with romney on his southwest airlines float. bags fly free. i love that commercial. average joes don't skip them on their dvr. that's socialism. quite a few of the photos show

the candidate chowing down on fast food, like this one at a carl's jr. "absolutely love that i'm not used to my burgers being wrapped in paper like that, but it was a nice, quaint touch." well, the website's dubbed an angie's list for millionaires of the people. and next up, it's somebody else setting up camp on both sides of an issue. it seems like the goal of republican darrell issa who headed up a hearing this morning entitled how obama's green energy agenda is killing jobs. issa also touted his message on c-span earlier this week. >> there's been this attitude that somehow government can weigh in with loan guarantees and money and pick specific company winners and losers. we see that as a backdoor easy way to end up with corruption in government. >> well, he may be taking a stand there, but as it turns out, the california congressman has fought for dollars to fund clean energy programs in his own state.

as recently in 2009, in a letter to the energy secretary in 2009, issa played up the potential of an electric car company in his home state. "awarding this opportunity to apter motors will help this developer in my district." well, i guess the "in my district" part is the deciding factor for issa. so much for job killing. up next, it's the latest installment of tea party takeover of the republican party. tea party republicans in the house voted down a republican spending bill that would have provided disaster relief to victims of the recent storms. they insist on paying for that relief by cutting projects democrats favor. can john boehner control his own party? you're watching "hardball" only on msnbc.

delegates from the u.s. and more than 30 other countries walked out on a speechly iranian president ahmadinejad after he slammed western nations. president obama is rolling back some requirements from president bush's controversial no child left behind law. jaycee due guard is suing the federal government for inexcusable lapses in parole officers. a disastrous day on wall street.

the dow plunged nearly 400 points as slower economic growth in europe, asia and the u.s. reignited fears of a double-dip recession. now back to "hardball." welcome back to "hardball." it was a major embarrassment for house speaker john boehner last night. the house voted 230 to 195 to reject the stopgap spending measure he brought to a vote. a measure that would have helped fund disaster relief. and it was the right flank of his party that helped kill it, joining almost all the democrats. 48 republicans, many associated with the tea party. the possibility of a government shutdown looms now at the end of the month if congress can't pass something. can boehner control the tea party? that's a question we're going to ask the "hardball" strategists tonight. does this all add up to an overwhelming disapproval americans have for congress, as shown in poll after poll? and does it give democrats any

help in next year's election? good question. point number two in our debate tonight with the strategists, with the president's approval number dropping, some in the congressional democrats are worried about the prospect of having to run on the same ticket as the president, according to politico. what chance do the democrats have of winning back the house given the environment of the president's low numbers? here comes the answers. steve mcmahon is a democratic strategist and tom howard is a republican strategist. first, herding cats. this speaker of the house, one of the most likable guys in politics. he carries his emotions on his sleeves, nobody thinks he's a right-winger, but he's got all these crazy right-wingers that just want to vote no, no, no, cut, cut, cut, and they don't care about the consequences. they're embarrassing your party, are they not? >> no, i don't think they're embarrassing our party. look, they're doing exactly what they said they were coming to washington to do, which is shrink the size of government and roll back the ridiculous runaway spending that's been going on from both parties over

the last several decades. this is what they said they were going to do when they ran last year, and it's exactly what they're doing. if you want to understand the role of the tea party within the republican party, it is not dissimilar to the role of labor in the democratic party, it's a small minority, but it's vocal and they are important when it comes to politics. >> it seems to me, steve, the market's dropped 700 points in two days. the country is scared enough of an economic slowdown, and these guys are fighting the last war. what are they fighting, inflation? the country needs demand, needs economic action, and these guys are slowing it down more. >> if you want to understand the role of the tea party in politics today, it's to take the country to the brink of a shutdown and to have the markets lose 10%. those of you at home, if you want to know how the tea party affects you, look at your 401(k) statement tonight or tomorrow, because the stock market dropped to 700 points, a direct result of the irresponsible way in which they cut indiscriminately,

they do not care. they're like kamikaze pilots, they'd rather crash on the deck and burn everybody than -- >> aren't you being unfair to kamikaze pilots? john boehner today brushed aside criticism for allowing the vote to happen without knowing he had the numbers to pass it. let's listen to that. >> i've always believed in allowing the house to work its will. i understood what the risk was yesterday. but why not put the bill on the floor and let the members speak? and they did. >> dan aykroyd again. i'm just kidding. but the guy doesn't seem to have a grip. don't you think he'd be happier with regular republicans than the right-wingers? what happened to your party that they've got more of these guys in there that just go in there just to disturb the peace. they don't get anything done. >> because, look, the bulk of washington wants to go along and get along. if it weren't for the tea party and what happened in the 2010 cycle, we wouldn't even be having this conversation about how much to cut. >> i know. i know. >> the president -- >> okay. you think we're going to get out of this recession by cutting

spending? >> i think cutting spending, i think regulatory reform, i think there are a whole lot of things we can do to -- >> this is a novel economic theory, and i didn't realize todd was an economist, but we'll go with that -- >> i just play one on tv. >> suppose businesses cut spending, suppose consumers cut spending, by the way, they're doing that, doesn't that bring the economy into a recession. >> the reason business isn't spending is because of all the uncertainty that exists right now. >> i didn't realize that you were a keynesian, that you think we can spend our way out of this. >> -- won their seats in purple districts, those were swing districts they won. they think the people were voting for their vision of government. what they're going to find out, and we're going to talk about this in a minute, that people were voting for change, and they're not liking the change that they've got. >> here's your chance. let's shift gears whether to democrats can win, win back the house even in this environment. according to politico today, obama looms large in every calculus for house control, buffeted by sinking approval ratings that recently hit sub-40 percent lows. democrats private express worry about running on a ticket with obama at the top. how does your -- your mr. and mrs. democratic candidate for

congress, how does that candidate, your candidate, perhaps, in some cases, win elections at that point, winning back the house, up to 218, which they need to do, can they do that with the president in bad shape? >> yes. >> how? >> all politics is local. they need to carve out an identity that's distinct from the republican party. two, they need to remind everybody what's happening in the republican party right now. you'll have rick perry perhaps on the top of the ticket or on the ticket. he thinks that social security is unconstitutional. every single republican incumbent voted to make medicare a voucher program. that's something that's going to loom large in the election. it wasn't very prominent in the new york race, because there wasn't a republican incumbent. but every republican incumbent in the house will have to defend that vote. >> one unnamed house democrat put it bluntly. obama's presidency has fizzled. it's going to be every person for himself in 2012. there just won't be any coattails, and any effect he does have on the ballot will hurt us. that's a democrat worrying. but i have to ask you, he just said all politics is local, and he slammed you for what you're doing nationally on cutting social security and destroying medicare.

>> that affects the senior citizens locally. >> steve seems to be a lot more bullish on actual house chances. than the actual house democrats do. >> would you run for office as a congressman or a member of congress -- >> no. >> would you support a candidate saying, i'm with rick perry, let's get rid of social security? >> well, look -- >> it's a ponzi scheme, would you do that? would you say, let's get rid of medicare and replace it with some sort of, you know, starbucks $10 card to buy health insurance, a voucher? >> i don't think that's anyone's plan. >> what's your response ad going to say when they say rick perry wants to take social security and give it to the states and this candidate for congress voted to make medicaid a voucher program. what's the response ad say? >> look, we don't need to prosecute an entire campaign based on the idea that perry is the nominee. look -- >> let's just take the medicaid voucher program. what is the response? >> i don't think -- >> we needed to cut spending and we decided to do it on senior citizen's backs. >> who do you think the white house wants to run against? >> perry.

>> they want perry. they both want perry. perry perry, we're going to call him. both parties want him. steve mcmahon, thank you. todd harris, you don't really want him, i know that. you're too smart. live tweeting tonight for two hours, i'm going to express what i think is pretty good refereeing tonight. and i'm going to really look for what i think helps republicans one way or another. you know, i may not be in that corner all the time, in fact, rarely, but when i'm in there, i'm trying to figure out who's going to win. so tonight i'm going to twitter about who's winning this fight tonight. two hours of excitement. i won't be spending a whole lot of time with that guy from -- >> the hashtag? >> the hashtag, hardballchris. is president obama losing support among his base, the african-american community? that's a hot one, and that's ahead. thank you, todd harris. this is "hardball" on msnbc.

nine-time olympic gold medalist carl lewis, who was

here a week ago, has been dealt a setback in his campaign for state senate in new jersey. a three-judge panel of the federal appeals court in philadelphia has ruled lewis cannot be on the ballot, siding with republicans who say that lewis doesn't meet the state's four-year residency requirement. well, the same three-judge panel awarded lewis a spot on the ballot just nine days ago. we even had him on here, as i said. we'll be right back. ♪ ♪ [ male announcer ] sitting. waiting. hoping. that's a recipe for failed investing.

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improves skin's health in one day, with significant improvement in 2 weeks. i found a moisturizer for life. [ female announcer ] only from aveeno. we're back. president obama has been feeling the heat from the right, of course, for quite some time, but he may soon feel the heat from his own strongest supporters, african-americans. this is how congressman and black caucus chairman emanuel cleaver explained the growing

anger among african-americans over the economy to mcclatchy newspapers earlier this week. "if former president bill clinton had been in the white house and had failed to address this problem, we probably would be marching on the white house. reaction in the cbc, because nobody wants to do anything that would empower the people who hate the president." boy, is that putting it together. according to the latest "washington post"/abc poll, the number of african-americans who strongly support the president has fallen by 25 points since april to a low of 58%. that's those who strongly support him. 86% of african-americans still hold a very favorable view of the president. so is the president really losing the support of african-americans or is this just hype? mike eric dice is a professor and msnbc analyst, and james peterson is the director of the studies at lehigh university and a "huffington post" blogger. gentleman, thank you so much. michael, you first. where do you stand in trying to

survey or being able to sort of get a gut sense, if you will, a gut check on the african-american community's feelings toward this president's performance? >> well, i think that african-american people divide an assessment of the president's performance versus whether or not they are inclined to still support or vote for him. the slippage was in the strongly favorable category of the overall and general favorability is still there in 86% of african-american people say that they are somewhat favorable toward the president. of course, that's linked to decline in jobs, the inability of the policies of the government to be able to stimulate this economy to such a degree that african-american people can enhance their employment prospects. 16.7%, which means it's probably closer to 20% of african-american people are unemployed and not working. of course, people vote with their pocketbooks and their jobs may dictate the likability of politicians, but i don't think that the obama administration has to go into crisis mode.

i think it needs to speak directly and target those african-american communities that feel the heat from this joblessness, as does the larger economy, but specifically african-american people. and if they get a wink or a nod from the white house, i think that will go a long way toward reassuring them that this president is concerned about them. >> professor peterson, i went to a lot of rallies in philadelphia where there are large numbers of african-americans who were thrilled in their hearts about this president during the campaign the last time. and i assume they voted to the man, to the person, to the young person, everybody voted. i can't imagine anybody in that community not voting, your community. and i'm asking, will you get the same kind of embulant excitement coming back next year? >> it's going to be very difficult to re-produce the conditions of 2008, where enthusiasm drop-off is a possibility, but it's kind of interesting here because honestly, 86% or 88%, which are the dnc numbers on this thing, that is an extraordinary number, considering the economy,

considering the fact that you've had a lot of black folk who have come out critically against the president, considering the fact that he's been consistently under attack by the right and by the tea partiers. to be at 86% is actually something we should be celebrating about, not something we should be worried about or concerned. obviously, black folk want this president to speak more directly to black issues. i think internally the obama administration is kind of working on that, trying to figure that out. but the bottom line here is 86% is a pretty strong number of any voting block. >> well, according to the pew research, black wealth is 20 times less than that of whites in the country. those numbers are staggering, by the way. it's not about income. it's about accumulated wealth. according to pew research center the median net wealth for black households is just about $5,700 compared with white households where the median net wealth is just over $113,000. so you think about the value of the house you own, you think about your main assets in life, michael, and there's still a tremendous -- i mean, there's a bigger gap certainly than income right now. income is getting much closer than wealth. >> yeah, the income is still a great disparity, but the wealth gap is stunning.

>> it's tragic. >> it's a travesty of economic justice. and it shows you that the crisis in housing really led to the greatest bleed-off of black wealth in the history of this nation. and again, the question is will the obama administration respond as americans? african-american people, after all, are american citizens. so we understand the reluctance to target african-americans because of fear that the right wing will exploit any attention paid to african-american people as somehow some racial gerrymandering. but i think the reality is that 16.7% unemployment and this wealth gap suggests that there are targeted programs that can be done in the name of democratic procedures to help american citizens. and when that is done, i think we find new and creative ways to address this. this didn't begin under obama. >> exactly. >> the wealth gap has been going on for a darn century and a half. the reality, though is we've got to close that gap and begin to figure out policies that can speak to the crisis of these american citizens. >> professor peterson. >> yes. >> let me ask you about white votes.

do you have a sense as you look at politics in america that there are some white voters who will vote for an african-american, say, once and then will hold that person to a very rigorous standard, perhaps a much higher standard than they would a white politician and they'll give him one shot and then they'll dump him the next time? i look at this, i look at the ed brook, i look at the senator from illinois. i think about this -- i wonder if this is a phenomenon you've looked at analytically at all this sense you've got your shot but let's see you do it, if it isn't really, really good you're out of there. professor peterson, your thoughts on that. >> yeah, we have to parse this a little bit. remember, there's demographic interpretations here. so the older white vote is going to have a little bit of a different feeling about president obama than the younger white vote. and yes, there are going to be those one-time folk who just say just for the cause, just to sort of say that look, we're not racist, america is changing, they'll make that vote. and yes, there are going to be some voters who also hold obama to a different standard. that's just the ways in which race and politics operate.

but i really have a lot of faith in young folk across the mainstream, in college campuses. they were inspired by president obama. and i really feel like the ways in which we think about race and the ways in which older generation folk think about race, younger generation folk are really try to move past that and beyond that. we're not post-race but there certainly is an earnest attempt by younger folk to look at folks outside of the sort of rigid racial lines we've drawn for ourselves in the history of this country. >> michael, last thought. just briefly, how do you react to that? >> i think he's absolutely right. the reality is i teach at georgetown university. many young students of all races and colors are still inspired by president obama. sometimes, of course, there's a downturn in the enthusiasm. so the enthusiasm gap has grown. but that's because people who are not used to politics don't understand, you've got ebbs and tides of -- flows up and down. but i think that they'll hang on and represent very strongly. >> great universities represented tonight. georgetown and lehigh. thank you so much for being here. michael eric diceon and james peterson. >> thank you. when we return, let me

finish with the loud and clear message the stock market seems to be sending to the president and to this country. you're watching "hardball," only on msnbc.

let me finish tonight with this. the president of the united states now faces a critical moment of crisis and decision. today the stock market dropped like a runaway elevator. the head of the international monetary fund said the world economy is entering a dangerous phase. she said the nations need

credible plans now to get their debt under control. so there you have the bind that the president and this country are in. demand is dropping for goods and services. the head of the imf is calling for governments to drop demand still further by cutting their spending plans. there's the rub. how do you drop or stop the drop in demand, the drop that is heading us into a recession, and at the same time drop the government's own demand for goods and service by cutting government spending? so we do have to choose. and we need the president to choose. the time has come to stop trying to have it both ways. if the best policy of the united states right now is to cut our debt, the president should lead the way, pushing for hikes in taxes and cuts in spending. he should be leading the charge on both fronts. but if the danger is recession, an across-the-board drop in spending on the part of consumer, business, and government, then he has to be leading the charge to stop it. he needs to be finding, pushing, demanding, doing more government spending. he needs to resuscitate the american economy with a jolt of adrenaline before it falls completely dormant.

well, right now the country's not sure which way he's leading us. ask yourself the question. is he out there calling for tax hikes on the wealthy and spending cuts in social security and medicare to go along with him? yes. we heard him doing that this week. or is he out there pushing to pump up government spending, to get the economy hopping again? is he pushing to get money moving through the pipes, getting it into people's pockets so they'll start buying again? yes. he's out there on that bridge today pushing for just that. so which is it? full speed ahead or man the pumps? i think we need a certain trumpet. i think the stock market is saying that. i know i'm thinking that. that's "hardball" for now. thanks for being with us. "the last word with lawrence o'donnell" starts now. breaking news, the fox news