good evening. i'm chris matthews from washington. leading off tonight, none of the above! first the republicans had a crush on donald trump, but that fizzled. then they swooned over michele bachmann, until she started leaking vaccines and mental retardation. next up, rick perry who excited republican hearts until he broke them with his debate flops. and all this time, mitt romney has been standing at the door with a bouquet of flowers, but the gop just doesn't want this gentleman caller. on saturday, both perry and romney were dumped by florida straw poll voters. you have to have somebody to win an election, don't you? and right now the republicans have nobody. could their somebody wind up being chris christie of new jersey? his lips say no, but his eyes say yes. the gop moneyman actually are begging him to get into the race and he's still taking their calls. plus, stop complaining, stop grumbling, stop crying. that was president obama's message to the congressional black caucus this weekend and

last night, he went after the global warming denying rick perry, after gop audiences cheered for people without health insurance to die and booed gay soldiers. the campaign is on. and extremism in defense of electoral victory is no vice, or so says the writer frank rich, who insists if president obama aims for the middle, he'll lose, because the country is truly divided, left and right. is rich right? we'll debate that one tonight. plus, we finish with the campaign without a candidate. one of heed and hatred, but no actual head. we start with the lack of satisfaction with the 2012 republican field. howard fineman's "the huffington post" media group editorial director and michael steele's the former chairman of the republican national committee. both are msnbc political analysts. gentleman, let's take a look in a surprising victory, herman cain walked away with the win at the florida straw vote this weekend. that was a poll down there, 3,500 people with delegates, he had 37% to perry's 15, romney's 14.

small potatoes for the so-called frontrunners. this way this is being judged by everybody, michael steele, is that the republican activists, who show up at these things are not thrilled with either romney, who has never thrilled them, or perry who seems to be faltering as a performer. >> well, i think that's part of it. there is truth to that. the other part of it, and i talked to a number of people who were there, they really responded to the candidate, in this case, it was cain, who spent time with them, who actually stuck around and participated in the events that weekend. that went a long way, surprisingly enough. and that's how these straw poll events tend to be. florida's no different from iowa in that respect. so i think you had a combination of forces coming together here, where they wanted the respect, but they also wanted to send the message that we may not be done yet. >> the trouble with that analysis, but, howard, the other analysis would have to be, for years now, that's been a pretty good leading indicator of who'd they pick as their nominee.

this isn't just, who do you like today, it's, who do you think will be the nominee? now, maybe it's herman cain deserves to be considered as one of the frontrunners now, but i don't think yet. he might end up there. but the question now is, what are they up to? what are the activists looking for? they seem like, my hunch is, mitt romney could turn in ten sterling debate performances in a row, and they still wouldn't love the guy. on the other hand, if perry makes a comeback and has a good night, they'll be back in his embrace again. >> i think that's right. i think, first of all, from what i know of the people i've talked to who are there, herman cain got the vote he did partly because he criticized both romney and perry for going at each other over what was in their books and all this sort of nonideological gamesmanship, where the people in that audience wanted a red meat conservative, instead, they got two guys dueling with each other over -- >> they wanted applause line. >> a top strategist talked to who's independent but really knows his stuff said, look, this contest is romney versus a

conservative. and romney is nowhere with the tea party people. he's never going to be anywhere with the tea party people. it's just a matter of finding who the proper conservative is to take him on. >> but what happens if he ends up with the most votes? here's a guy, andrew ramano, writing in this week's "newsweek," let's take a look at this. "the bottom line is that romney is not very good at winning votes. in fact, over the course of his 17-year political career, he has notched only one electoral victory, the 2002 contest that made him governor of massachusetts. the most remarkable part of all this losing is that romney's support almost always peaks early on and plummets as election day approaches. he's way ahead in iowa and new hampshire at this point four years ago. he lost both. the pattern is clear. the more time romney spends in front of voters, the less willing they are to vote for him." now, that andrew ramano, i don't

know this writer, but he goes into great sort of reporting about how he will meet with a voter and say stupid things. he doesn't know how to connect with -- you know how to do it. meet a person on a street corner, meet people, chat with them. he can't do that basic thing of meeting another human being. that is a problem for a politician. >> well, it's a problem for a politician -- it is, i mean. he can't communicate the message, it doesn't get that far. but i've seen romney in the room, and in the room, he is really, really good. and the problem is translating -- >> one on one or with a group of 200 people? >> with a group of 60 -- >> did you ever see him one on one? >> i have. >> this writer says he's terrible. >> well, that's that writer's opinion. but there's the opinion of others out there like myself who have seen him and have seen him to be very good at that. the problem is translating that to a broader audience via television and other media, in which you don't necessarily come off -- >> has he ever said to you, who let out the dogs? he has some strange reactions when he meets people.

>> remember how george h.w. bush was kind of uncomfortable sometimes? but george w. bush had a winning earnestness about him that overcame his -- >> well, he was great one on one. >> he was great. >> one on one. so was there one too many wars with the guy? >> i have interviewed mitt romney one on one, and maybe it was just me, but it was a difficult interview. >> but you didn't write him a check. you're not going to vote for him, you know? >> there's a statement. pay to play, huh? >> and i know andrew romano, he's a terrific young reporter. >> i see a problem. no man on the left here weighed on to rick perry's bad week yesterday. here he is going after the other frontrunner, and they're getting back even here. let's listen to brit hume here. >> perry really did throw up all over himself during the debate, at a time where he needed to raise his game, and he not only -- he did worse, it seems to me,

than he had done in previous debates. perry is about one-half a step away from almost total collapse as a candidate. >> i have this idea, not in reference to what brit said, he's his own guy, but this idea that i get the fox that fox and murdoch and that particular empire, which is a big part -- roger ailes is a big part of that too. we have a "new york post" editorial today, pushing like mad for a new entry. we'll get to him. but just for a second here, before we get to him in the next block, christie. he is to me evidence that they don't like what they got, michael? >> yeah, no. >> they got what they like, they wouldn't be pushing for the jersey governor with one or two years under his belt. >> well, this is the problem. you get a christie in the race, and once you start peeling back the onion and you don't like what you see or smell, where are you? >> that's what they're doing. they say, you know the guy i really like, the guy who's not in the race. >> we all know roger ailes. my guess is roger ailes has looked at rick perry in the last couple of performances, if he didn't know rick perry going way back, and say, uh-huh.

>> because roger knows -- >> he knows people who come across as credible on television, and perry didn't. >> we're all over the place. but what seems to be going over this weekend, you look at all kinds of evidence, the florida straw vote, what's happening with the media empire of murdoch, what you hear everywhere, everywhere, the neoconservatives like bill kristol out there, they're all -- what's his name? they're all looking for christie. here's the latest cnn opinion research poll, it has rick perry leading, but in a narrow way, he's dropped two points from earlier this month, he's still ahead of mitt romney who has gained three points. one person who's dropped a lot, sarah palin, who's down to three points since early september. why are we not hearing anything right now about palin? my hunch is quitting the governorship halfway through her term disqualified her as a presidential candidate -- not as a popular figure, but a presidential candidate. >> i think there's some legitimacy to that and i've heard that from some of the activists in the party, who

thought that that -- fulfilling that responsibility and that role would have notched it up a bit. cutting out halfway through, you know, brought her down. and i think you're right. she remains popular, but when they look at the office of the presidency, that is a -- >> and ronald reagan couldn't have been elected president as a tv commentator, radio commentator. he didn't have those two terms as governor. >> yeah, that's right. and rick perry, despite what brit hume said there in colorful terms, rick perry needs to raise the level of his game if he's going to stay in it. it's not impossible. the irony is, they kept him out of it for a long time to try to train him up, but in the process of trying to train him up, they raised the expectations for him, and he certainly didn't meet the expectations in the last debate. but the dynamics are that there's an only mildly popular mitt romney preaching electability, and ironically, a guy who rarely wins an election, and the desire of a tea party more for a strong, conservative candidate.

if it's perry, if they have to make the best they can out of perry, if nobody else enters the race, they'll have to try and do it. so perry has another shot here. but the underlying dynamics of the race are going to require somebody to go up against romney. >> i'm going to get to what i wanted to say at the end of the show tonight. it seems to me when the democrats have a problem, the president isn't quite sure what kind of a campaign he's going to run. is he going to run down the middle like clinton? somewhere left/right like truman. we know who the candidate is. your party, we know what kind of campaign it's going to be. it's going to be angry, it's going to have some heat in it, maybe some hatred in it, it's being very tough on obama. you need someone to wear that uniform, but you know what kind of campaign it's going to be, anti-obama. >> right. and that's going to go but so far, i think. because the country is fed up with the anti. and now they're looking for -- >> really? >> i really believe this.

>> but the red-hots in florida weren't. >> but they're the red-hots in florida. how does that the translate to other parts of the country where the vote really is going to matter. >> i've got to say with all due totally disagree with that. i think the anti mood in the country is colossal. i think if people could press a button and get rid of every member of congress on both sides of the aisle, they would do it. >> they would do it, but that's not the reality. when they get in that voting booth on election day, that becomes the reality, and they'll ask themselves the hard question. does a perry or romney standing in for the republicans do better than a barack obama? >> remember austin powers when they pushed a button and the chair falls down into the ground and they hear the wailing beneath the ground. if you could do that to the united states congress, all -- push those buttons -- >> no, if you gave voters, supposedly voters love their own member of congress. if you said, okay, you can keep your own member of congress or you can press the other button and get rid of all of them,

including your own member of congress, they would push that button. they would push that button. >> by the way, this weekend, one -- a congress with one eighth support among the american people, one in eight people liked the congress, held the united states budget that's threatening to shut down the united states government, over 1/25 of 1% of the budget. those are the numbers. thank you, ladies and gentlemen of the congress. thank you, howard fineman and thank you, michael steele. coming up, so if it's not mitt romney, who it is? we've got the big guy from jersey. he's been talked about all weekend. what is it about this guy that seems to be the call of the wild for the republican party? everybody wants him. he's taking the phone calls. he's listening. he may run. and if he does, does he change the whole thing? we're going to get the question of why this guy's still being talked of, not palin, him, that guy from jersey. i think it's atty-tude. you're watching "hardball" on msnbc. looking good! you lost some weight.

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that was saturday night live yoking about what a lot of republicans thinking. the gop field this year is still not satisfactory. and the one name that comes up over and over again, i don't know why, all over again this weekend is the blunt-talking new jersey governor chris christie. today, former new jersey governor tom kaine told the national review online that governor christie is, "very seriously" considering a run and the odds are a lot better than

they were a couple of years ago, so someone's pushing this story on the inside. kaine is a strong supporter of christie and has urged him to run, but christie has always denied he would consider entering this race in 2012. let's take a look at what he said over time. >> you're still saying, categorically, not running in 2012. >> i'm not running. >> categorically, not running. >> i don't know how else to put it, the answer is no, i'm not doing it. >> you have to be really in your gut and in your heart ready to be president of the united states if you decide to run for that. and i simply do not have the desire to do it. nor do i think i'm ready. >> i'm 100% certain i'm not going to run. >> listen, i threatened to commit suicide -- i did! i said, what do i have to do short of suicide to convince people i'm not running? apparently i actually have to commit suicide. >> well, that sounds fairly certain, it's not exactly shermanesque, but close to it.

still, the calls for christie to run continue, as we speak right now. and what does that say about the field that's out there running hard? and is there any chance the governor would reconsider over the next couple of weeks? u.s. congressman peter king represents parts of long island in new york state. michael smerconish is a nationally syndicated radio talk show host and an msnbc contributor. i want to start with congressman peter king, as an elected official from the northeast, is part of this just the sense that george will mentioned the other day in a column, that our part of the country up here has been underrepresented in your party? it is essentially we need someone with attitude? what is it that's missing in the field right now? >> you know, i've actually been a supporter of chris christie for a while. i actually drove all the way to trenton. and to drive from new york to trenton, you've got to be serious about it. this was last september, a year ago. i spent about two hours with him, urging him to run. he pretty much convinced me at that time, certainly at that time, he did not want to run. i saw him again a few weeks ago, and i was not part of the inside

with chris christie, but i was talking to him and his wife and he didn't seem as resistant now as he did then, but that could have been me reading into it. why is he attractive? he's tough talking, he gets the job done, and i think he would appeal to the reagan democrats, the irish, the italian, the conservative jews. >> your crowd. >> yeah, he would really appeal to them. >> what is it, though, about -- something about that's missing. i'm trying to figure out, without being derogative, i know you don't want to trash the other republicans that are out there running, but what is it missing in, let's say, romney? you know that old story about the dog food, they had great commercials for, great advertising, and the dogs wouldn't eat it and someone say, why don't the dogs eat it, it's well advertised, and they say, the dogs don't like it. there's something out there about the voters in the republican party, peter, that they just don't like this guy, romney. >> i wouldn't say they don't like him. i've only been with him for really one extended period of

time, and actually, i disagree with what you said before, or the reporter said. i found him one on one to be actually very friendly. when he is in front of a crowd, he does become more stiff. i think his competence comes across and his sincerity as far as wanting to get the job done, but he does not have the bill clinton or george bush or lyndon johnson, i'm trying to think, or juliano -- >> or you. >> okay, i'll take that. >> peter, you're pretty -- >> let's take a look at conservative commentator bill kristol, not exactly the regular guy you bump into on the street, but yesterday he said he would like to see governor christie get in this race. quote, let's watch bill kristol, a smart guy on fox yesterday. >> we don't know how chris christie would be, as fritz says, as a presidential candidate. i would actually like to see some of these guys try. chris christie would be a -- i've said this before and i've said to this him, and he's good natured enough to laugh at me and not knock me out, a big man for a big job. >> there's a pun. strong language urging the new

jersey governor to get in. "there's no denying that chris christie has long been the hottest ticket in town. a genuine gop political superstar, with good reason. for one thing, he can construct a coherent sentence, appealing to people without talking down to them. and there is a freshness to him that's lacking in the other pole leader, mitt romney, who's been campaigning for five years now." michael, you understand this business better than i do, which is the suburban person who decides all elections tends to be maybe not real tough on abortion, one way or the other, tends to be probably pro-choice, but on issues of moderation, they look for somewhere center right. is christie the answer to their prayers? >> well, i think he can sell, i think he can play in suburbia. and some of those conservative influences who are encouraging him to get into the race, he might not be that which they anticipate. this is not a guy, and i like him. i'm favorably disposed toward him, because of his fiscal prudence. but, chris, he's not going to pass a gop purity test.

you know, there was an interesting issue recently that he had to make a determination on. it's this trend among employers to say in want ads, the unemployed need not apply. and chris christie passed into law in new jersey a ban of that kind of advertising, that became the first in the country. and the free market purists were of a mindset that people ought to be able to run their business as they see fit with little guidance from uncle sam. to me, it's a reminder that this is a guy that's not going to line up lockstep in those withhe reagan democrat who's been out of work, who's 55 years old. right, congressman? >> chris, i agree with you completely. that is what his strength is going to be, to appeal to people, and the swing state. i think, and michael's a good friend of mine, but i believe chris christie is certainly conservative enough to hold the conservative states, the south, the southwest. but where he's really going to be competitive is new jersey, pennsylvania -- >> ohio.

>> ohio. i mean, those are -- ohio, and also florida, obviously. so to me, that's where the election's going to swing. i think chris christie can win those states, hold on to the conservative base, especially running against president obama, who to me is not going to win any of those conservative votes. i think he's the best choice, i told him that, but i have no information as to whether he's going to run or not. >> michael, your thoughts? >> the only point i was going to make is i think to the extent that you're looking at who he pulls from, is it perry or is it romney, i think in the end, he's a relatively moderate northeastern governor, and i see him more in a romney mold than i do in a perry mold. he might be exactly what rick perry needs at this juncture. >> i think the tea partiers love him, because i think he's got the attitude about big government and he has the attitude about the way things are. i think he's angry. and if you're not angry running this time, i don't think you're in sync, but that's my thought. here's christie, he's known for being blunt and conservative when dealing with other politicians, combative, and with

the press, even constituents. here are a few of the governor's more famous, or infamous, outbursts, starting with his direct message to a few new jersey beachgoers this summer who didn't listen to warnings to leave in that run-up to irene. let's watch. >> get the hell off the beach in asbury park and get out. you're done. it's 4:30. you've maximumized your tan. you're going to have to raise the retirement age for social security, i just said it and i'm still standing here. i did not vaporize into the carpeting. >> you don't send your children to public schools, you send them to private schools, so i was wondering why you think it's fair to be cutting school funding to public schools? >> hey, gayle, first off, it's none of your business. i don't ask you where you send your kids to school, don't bother me about where i send them. >> you know, tom, you must be the thinnest skinned guy in america, because you think that's a confrontational tone, you should really see me when

i'm pissed. you know, congressman king, i don't know how long you can get along with that kind of rough talk, but what do you think about the old argument in politics, sometime in your life, the galloping horse of history rides by, and you better get on it because it ain't coming back for you. is this christie's time? >> i think it is. and i'm not going to get into an ideological debate with you, but i think among independent voters, a lot of the suburban people, they see a failure of leadership on president obama's part. and i think with chris christie, people may overlook some of the details here or there. he's a tough leader, he's going to kick ass. he's going ahead, he's going to do whatever he has to do, and that's what people are going to see and that's going to win conservative votes and win tea party votes, but bring a lot of blue-collar jobs, the construction union, cops, fireman. despite what he said, i don't think it matters. the big picture is, he is a big guy, he's a tough guy, and that's what people want this year. >> and i think the american people deserve, they deserve a reasonable choice between two credible presidential candidates, obama and someone

else, and they better find one pretty soon. thank you peter king and my colleague, michael smerconish. up next, much more from "saturday night live's" season premiere last night as they skewered the republican presidential field. you know, they ought to -- they ought to pay the salaries to some of these republican guys to "snl," they give them such great material. you're watching "hardball," only on msnbc. yo

back to "hardball" now for the side show. it's officially fall. the new season of "saturday night live" premiered this weekend and right off the bat, took on the field of the 2012 republican candidates. let's get the party started. >> i believe all 10-year-old girls should be vaccinated for hpv so they can enter into meaningful sexual relationships. no, i'll try again.

rick perry consistent. i believe social security is a ponzi scheme. i believe we need to build a fence to keep the illegals out. however, should any illegals get through and have children here, i think we should open our hearts and pay for their education. >> i believe paying no taxes can help us return to the america i love, not the america of ronald reagan, not the america of the founding fathers, but rather the america of thousands of years ago, in which feral bands of mud people lived in their caves, never worrying that barack obama was going to come and take their hard-earned pelts. >> there's no better motto for the federal government than that of a pizza place. pizza doesn't come to your door unless you ask for it. but when you ask for it, pizza will be there in ten minutes. and if you vote for me, america, i promise you that i will deliver. >> well, forget the united states government paying these people, perry and bachmann, like palin before them, should get

their salaries direct from "snl." and next up, moving forward or faking it? the good news is, king abdullah of saudi arabia announced this weekend he was advancing the rights of women in his country. "we refuse to marginalize the role of women in saudi society in every field of work." and later, "women will be able to run as candidates in the municipal election and will even have a right to vote." well, it sounds like a major step in the right direction over there in saudi arabia, but how about the fine print. to run as candidates in the municipal election and will even have a right to vote." well, it sounds like a major step in the right direction over there in saudi arabia, but how about the fine print. following this, elections are taking place this week in saudi arabia, but strangely enough, a woman's right to vote will not actually kick in for another four years in 2015. as for getting to the polls, don't think about getting behind the wheel. women in saudi arabia still lack the right to drive a car. gives new meaning to the phrase "voting with your feet." up next, president obama revs up his base. he tells the congressional black caucus to stop complaining and start marching, and he's blasting rick perry and the republican crowds who cheer for people without health insurance

to die, and of course, boo gay soldiers. the campaigns is on, next. you're watching "hardball," only on msnbc.

here is what's happening. the senate has approved a short term funding bill for fema without the spending cuts demanded by house republicans. it keeps the government operating through mid november. the obama administration has decided not to ask a federal appeals court to review a ruling striking down a center piece of his health care reform plan. that makes it is more likely the u.s. supreme court will be asked to rule on the case next month. scary video from inside the washington monument during last month's earthquake. inspectors say the monument is

structurally sound, but will remain shut down indefinitely for further inspections and repairs. a big moment for boeing today after three years of delays have delivered the first of its new 787 dream liners. now back to "hardball." welcome back to "hardball." president obama hit the road over this past weekend, as he begins gearing up for his re-election, which he's already done. the president held fund-raisers on the west coast to pump up his base and he unleashed some of his harshest criticism to date on his republican challengers. obama even pushed back against his own supporters who have been critical of him, by challenging them directly. is this the obama liberals have been hoping for? alex wagner is an msnbc political analyst and david corn

is the washington bureau chief of mother jones. alex, i haven't seen you in a while and i want your views on this. i've been in this business a long time and i don't know the answer. that's why i'm hitting you with it. is obama -- i'm going to get to this at the end of the show -- three trails he can take. does he go to the center like clinton effectively in '96 with things like welfare reform and nafta and balancing the budget. is he smart to go harry truman's route, give 'em hell harry, not left wing, but partisan as hell. three, like franklin roosevelt did, unite the hard left with the center left and say, this is where i stand. we're going to win this left versus right. where does he go, if you had to call it? >> i think he's going roosevelt, chris. look, he's been sort of in the center for a little while now, and i think the whole country wants to see him fighting. vis-a-vis, his comments at the cbc this weekend, where he said, look, we've got to keep fighting, it was a call to arms in many respects. i think the quote that everybody's been showing is get out of your bedroom slippers and start marching.

>> well, wait a minute, now that you bring it up, let's show it. here he is challenging members of the black caucus down here on their weekend. >> i don't have time to feel sorry more myself! i don't have time to complain! i expect all of you to march with me and press on! take off your bedroom slippers. put on your marching shoes. shake it off. stop complaining, stop grumbling, stop crying. we are going to press on, we've got work to do! cbc. >> do people still have bedroom slippers, alex? i mean, i sleep in a t-shirt. i mean, i don't have all this elaborate bedroom gear. do people still have slippers and bathrobes? >> to not get too in depth into my bedroom wardrobe, i do have a pair of slippers. but what gets lost here is the run-up to that line was framing the choice ahead of us, and the choice facing america as a whole

is akin to the civil rights movement. i think it was a call to arms. now, look, maxine waters on the "today" show voiced some skepticism. >> well, you're cueing up all these. here's maxine waters on the "today" show. let's watch what she had to say about the president. it's pretty tough. >> i found that language a bit curious, because the president spoke to the hispanic caucus, and certainly they are pushing him on immigration. he certainly didn't tell them to stop complaining, and he would never say that to the gay and lesbian community, who really pushed him on don't ask, don't tell. he would never say to the jewish community, stop complaining about israel. so i don't know who he was talking to. because we're certainly not complaining. >> i'm going to go to -- she hit all the bases there, but you know, there's the whole thing, you can tell jokes about your own community, but not about others. maybe he feels he can be tougher about his own community for others.

>> there was a lot of windup to that comment. and he was clearly feeling the passion of the moment. but it's no secret that he has felt that liberals and progressives in all the different communities, not just in the african-american community, have not been as understanding of the challenges he has faced, and they've let their disappointment get the better of them. so he's not pushing back, but he's saying, come on, guys, we've got a big fight. and to maxine waters, if she's going to get upset about these sort of words and these decisions, when there's this big choice coming up next year, whether it's -- >> can you please separate -- let's not get into this idea that people are, when they come on this show, these politicians, they're speaking their minds. they're all politicians. the president's a politician, maxine waters, the congresswoman, is a politician. she's saying what will sell well with who she's talking to. the base who may be upset with the president. >> if anybody in the base reading that speech, hearing that speech, and the full context would walk out saying, yeah, that's the obama i want.

and if he made a little comment about don't complain so much, very few people are going -- >> i'm not getting anywhere with you. alex, isn't it better for an african-american politician who represents in my cases an african-american district, on the left, if you will, poorer people than the average in many cases, to be tougher on the president? it doesn't hurt her a bit to be a little tougher and to his left. >> no, it doesn't. and look, chris, to be fair, look what's happened to the black community in america. we talk about jobs in this country. black unemployment is at near-historic highs. you look at the loss of black wealth in this country, the lack of attention -- >> last in, first out. last in, first out. same old deal. >> but i also think that there was some sense that president obama, because he does have african-american roots, would be at least paying attention to this, if not giving it some amount of special attention, given the fact that the blacks have disproportionately felt this economic downturn. >> you're right. why hasn't he done a jobs program, per se? some kind of major hiring of people for civil service jobs,

putting people to work, per se. here he is at a fund-raiser in san jose. let's hear what he had to say. president obama. republicans would fundamentally cripple, keep going, america, he said, "i mean, has anybody been watching the debates lately? you've got a governor whose state is on fire" -- that's of course, perry -- "denying climate change. you've got audiences cheering at the prospect of somebody dying because they don't have health insurance and booing a service member in iraq because he's gay. that's not reflective of who we are. this is a choice about the fundamental direction of our country." he's saying, maybe i've not been that successful, i know he doesn't want to say that, but he's really saying to the voters. you want them? >> listen, he's a president who has unemployment over 9%, black unemployment over 15, 20%, whatever it's going to be, and he'll have to look at the electorate and say, hey, you're not for change. you may feel like you're for change, but you're not. you have to look at the choice. it's me, and you may not be happy with the way things are

going right now, but look at the other side. do you think they would do a better job? are their values in sync with yours? it's a hard -- >> you've got to change it -- last thought? >> i think my favorite line was there, obama said, don't compare me to the almighty, compare me to the alternative, and that's exactly what he's doing. >> that's what he has to do. thank you, alex wagner, thank you, david. next up, barry goldwater said it's no vice, and now frank rich is calling for president obama to get tough, move to the left, or risk defeat, because the other side is definitely getting ideological. this is "hardball," only on msnbc.

here's a shocking number. 81%, that's the number of americans who say they're dissatisfied with the way the country's being governed. 81%. more than eight in ten, that's an all-time record high.

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groundwork for what was to become the reagan administration years. frank rich writes, "whatever perry's 2012's electoral fate, his lightning ascent is final proof if any further is needed in the day of tea party gop that a bipartisan consensus in america is as unachievable now as it was after 1964." i'm skeptical of what rich writes, but he's a smart guy. let's go to these questions, do you think, richard wolffe, you studied the politics of this presidency better than anybody, how do you see the argument here. let's start with the right wing, is this going to be a right-wing victory in this nomination process? when it ends up in tampa next fall, at this time next year, will we end up with a conservative candidate? >> i'll put money on that. the energy of the party is for an extreme candidate that

doesn't want to have anything to do with the center, with moderates, with obama's position. >> that's what i think. i think the party of heat and hatred to some extent needs a head, that's got to match the heat and the hatred. your view, cillizza, is the party going towards somebody of true right-wing belief and attitude, not just somebody who's acceptable down the center right/middle? >> i think right now, chris, you've got the choice between the heart, which is clearly rick perry. he's the guy who gets people animated. they believe that he believes, right? he's the heart. and the head, which is mitt romney. the head thinking steady, electability, can beat obama on his issues. so i honestly don't know the answer, but i do think you're seeing that basic dynamic play out in a we that's not dissimilar, i'd say, chris, to '04. remember howard dean as heart. john kerry as head. it's not that different. one is the candidate they love. the other candidate is the one

they like, but think other people can like him, too. >> i agree with you. i still think they're looking for more heart and like to have somebody better and smarter than perry. here's frank rich writing in "new york" magazine, "whether perry snares big prize or not he could prove a shock to the system taint mount to barry goldwater in 1964, and just as misestimated now as goldwater was then." he's arguing if perry loses the nomination or election he moves the party further to the right. my belief is they're looking for somebody like perry, who's accomplished in debating, for example. >> the partisans on both sides want to punch each other in the face. republicans, do they want to win or punch obama in the face? people like frank rich want people to do obama in return. that's not what goldwater's -- >> if you saw the republican party moving to the right, i

think we do, wouldn't you grab the center that they're leaing behind? >> you need to win as a democratic president a supermajority of moderates, moderates, not independents. that's where obama is try to head for. >> let's take a look at this. here's an nbc poll about who people are in this country. people describe themselves, the latest nbc, the latest shows a country that tilts to the right. these are factual self-described expressions of what people are politically. i find it fascinating. respondents consider themselves, 17% said -- or 7% said they're very liberal. 10%, somewhat liberal. moderates, people like that number, 40%. somewhat conservative, 23%. very conservative, 17%. basically add up the conservative and liberal, it's 17%-40%, chris. it doesn't look like it's even. i personally believe a lot of people who say they're moderates are by conservative estimates liberals. i might call myself a moderate.

a lot will tell me -- your thoughts? >> i would say, chris, yes e, you're exactly right. look, people like to say they're independents or moderates because that means, well, of course, i don't believe one side or the other all time, i think about each issue and break is down. in truth, if you push the 40% in the moderate category, my guess is 20% would be on the liberal side, 23% on the conservative side. that's a little bit i think misleading in that people like the -- it's like people like the idea of compromise. but when it comes to actual compromise -- >> that's what rich is arguing. >> let me jump in. there's a lot of polling about what moderates agree. on economic policy they're in the middle. on foreign policy they're with republicans, center right. moderates are a different group of people there are. only about half of independents are moderates as well. they're overlapping all the different parties. that's where obama did well in 2008. by the way, they were less a share of the electorate in 2010.

>> should obama go left, center left -- >> tell the people values. they care about deficit -- they just want the two sides punching each other. they want to know what you stand for and want to you aligned. for instance, they're more environmental, more pro immigration reform. >> we're out of here. we have to come back. this is a debate we're going to have from now to next november. thanks. you're always great. when we come back, let me finish with a candidate who matches the anger, the attitude of republicans today. this is what i think coming up.

let me finish tonight with this. the democrats have their candidate for 2012, republicans don't. and therein lies the big difference as we move into october. obama has the challenge of shaping his campaign for a second term, but the republicans have a problem of finding the candidate who fits their shape of their campaign of heat and hate for three years now. obama has to decide whether he heads down the middle, center left or left. he needs to decide if he's going to follow the path of bill clinton in 1996, harry truman in 1948 or something more like franklin roosevelt of 1936. let's see what the republicans are up to. they need a candidate. the florida debate last thursday

showed they don't have a front-runner who is ready to debate mitt romney, much less barack obama. the florida straw vote on saturday showed us that activist republicans don't see romney as an acceptable fallback. today's new york "post" editorial shows us that the media power of rupert murdoch wants chris christie to get into the race. so do the neoconservatives seem to believe they have found in him someone who will carry their banner into battle, someone not named mitt romney, not ron paul and apparently not the stumbling rick perry. their combined problem is that all these forces want a candidate to match the campaign well under way. it is a republican campaign of heat and hatred that wants obama out of the white house. it's a campaign of negativity, that needs a candidate that's angry and negative and can show it in his face. mitt romney had it too good to be that by. he's got a beautiful family, enjoys a happy life with them and has a quarter billion bucks salted away. he's not your ticked off middle class guy hitting his pillow each night with anger about deficits, debt or same-sex marriage.

he's the kind of debonair guy you meet at the club and chat about college football and how well the kids are doing and how great the fall weather's been. chris christie on the other hand is the kind of guy you just got stuck in traffic, got cut off by some cab driver and stuck his head or at least his hand out the window to signal his attitude. and that word is attitude. it's a big city word for ticked off and not afraid to say so. it explains the courtship of chris christie and how much fun a lot of republicans would have with him out there telling obama what he and they think about him. mitt romney is a man without an attitude. an attitude is what chris christie is all about. that's "hardball" for now. thanks for being with us. "the last word with lawrence o'donnell" starts right now. "saturday night live" made fun of the republican presidential candidates and so did florida voters. >> stop complaining. stop grumbling. stop crying.