i try to edify you. what about you? >> i am in defense of amber miller today, the 27-year-old who ran a marathon and had a baby, all in a day's work. >> i learned that mika ran five miles the day she delivered. >> i did. it helped actually both. sorry. >> willie, if it is way too early, we will see you back here tomorrow. still around for the daily rundown with chuck. it's debate night in new hampshire. cain is a big favorite with the tea party. maneuvering to save the

president's jobs bill in the senate where democrats don't have the votes is splitting the plan into pieces the answer. senator chuck schumer joins me this morning. tuesday, october 11th, 2011. this is the dalily rundown. ho closely the obama administration used mitt romney's massachusetts health care law as a model of their own plan. this isn't talking points, folks. this is deep facts. we will get to it later in the show. let's get to my first read of the morning. we start with the republican race. eight republican hopefuls meet in hanover new hampshire to devote the economy. it is a state by state battle that begins in iowa and new hampshire. we are debuting new nbc news marist posts in both states. the numbers confirm that tonight is a do or die moment for rick perry who has fallen to fourth in both states. no one is more riding on a good

debate performance tonight than perry. let's look at the numbers. romney clearly has home turf advantage. he is at 44%. it is nearly the doubled combine total of his two closest rivals. a different story in iowa. the herman cain surge has come to the hawkeye state. romney is neck and neck with cane. rick perry tied with michele bachmann at 10%. among tea party supporters, ruffle half of republican caucusgoers, cain tops romney, 31% to romney's 15%. among those that call themselves strong tea party supporters, it is a bigger cain advantage, 41-7. other interesting note in iowa, romney does better than first time caucusgoers than those that have caucused before. another big red flag for romney, despite rick perry's plummeting

numbers, conservatives aren't moving to romney. in both iowa and new hampshire, republican voters say lec abili electability and experience are less important than those that share their value positions. expect more attacks on romney like the one from perry yesterday questioning his authenticity on some conservative positions. you see here, it is cain who is taking advantage of it. you see him overperforming as well among the more self-described conservatives in our new hampshire survey. it is not enough to close that gap with romney at all but when you look at what's going on among iowa republicans, you see why perry is trying to do what he is doing. there is a big chunk of conservative voters not going to romney. still sampling the candidates. the president travels to another swing state, pennsylvania. he will visit a union training

center in pittsburgh and hold a meeting of his jobs council and on to another swing state, florida, for two fund-raisers in orlando. our nbc news marist poll shows the president has his work cut out for him in iowa and new hampshire. these are two states the president won by nearly double digits in 2008. his job approval ratings are upside down in both states. 42% of the voters approve of his performance in iowa. in new hampshire, 38% approve. only 21% of iowa voters and 19% of voters in new hampshire think the country is headed in the right direction by more than a 3-1 margin. voters of both states think the country is on the wrong track. keep this in mind. iowa and new hampshire has seen president obama and candidate obama more than any other state. his numbers dipping there. they mirror what's going on nationally. it has to be particularly painful to see obama. back to new hampshire. it is mitt romney's state to

lose. with me now, new hampshire republican senator, kelly ayott. you are a granite stater. you have a big debate. your predecessor yesterday, republican judd gregg, endorsed mitt romney. how close are you to picking a candidate in the republican race? >> i have been meeting with all the candidates, chuck. i am certainly thinking about weighing in. my goal is to make sure we don't have another four years of president obama. so i have had a chance to sit down with the romneys, with the perrys, huntsman and i will be sitting down with herman cain. senator greg weighed in for governor romney yesterday. he of why us will i weighed in for him in the prior campaign as well. romney is doing very well in new hampshire but there is still a long way until the actual day of the primary. >> let me ask you the question that we ask new hampshire voters. what matters to you more, electability and experience or a candidate that shares your

values and issue positions? >> first of all, you have to have a candidate that shares your issues and value positions, principal candidate. in this election, also, electability is going to play very strongly. any one of our candidates would be betster than where we are today with president obama. so i think it is really important to put forward a candidate that can beat the president in this election. >> so electability is going to matter to you before you make a choice. >> very much electability will matter and i want someone who shares my positions as well. that's important. >> today, you are in manchester. are you making it back for the senate vote tonight? >> i am. i am flying out right after this. >> let me ask you this, not a lot of people expect the bill to pass as a whole. are you definitely against this bill or are you still pondering it? there is a report that says, if passed as is, the white house believes 5,000 jobs can be created in new hampshire? >> well, first of all, as is, as

you know, already, the senate democrats aren't going to support what the president proposed, tax increases on those that make, as a couple $250,000 or more. that hits a lot of small businesses. my husband has a small business. we are also going to have a procedural vote. they modified it to now include the surtax on millionaires. this is a political gotcha vote. if they created jobs, we would have zero unemployment right now. what we need, if the president were serious about this, he would be reaching out to the speaker of the house. leaders in congress and figuring out what we can agree on, like regulatory reform, tax reform, create a better climate in the private sector. >> a lot of those bills have been studied by the economists, though. what house republicans and senate republicans have been putting out about regulations and none of the analysis from these independent economists

indicate that we would see a short-term bump in new jobs, that the unemployment rate that maybe long-term, we would have some modest, positive effects on the economy but there seems to be a problem short-term here. do you not want to look at the short-term at all. >> well, you no he, what the president is offering, basically, is a short-term stimulus, which is a redo of what he put forward before, which didn't have the impact on the economy that he proposed that it would for a permanent tax increase. i think one of the best measures that regulatory reform will help our economy is that the president's own job council is coming out with a report tochltd one today. one of the issues they highlighted is regulatory reform as an issue for getting our economy moving. >> do you want to he soo any short-term spending on infrastructure? >> one of the things i would like to see us do is our job. for example, we haven't sat down. i serve on the congress

committee in the senate. if we could put together. i know that the public works committee has already worked on a surface transportation bill. republicans and democrats could work on infrastructure funding together, because we should be doing our job and be doing a multi-year funding bill. i hear that from contractors in new hampshire. they want to know the certainty of what projects are coming forth and or state does as well. >> what's the holdup? >> you know what the holdup is, right now, in the senate harry reid, senate democrats, they haven't brought forth many of these. we have only voted on one appropriations bill. it has been over two years since we have had a budget. putting together a budget for our country would help our economic circumstances. those that interact with the government would know what to plan for, not just for a month but being able to look forward tote entire year. >> i want to go back quickly to the president's jobs bill. there has been independent

economic analysis that indicates it would boost the economy right now where our economy is getting battered because of what's going on in europe in a way that nobody seemed to expect to happen at this point in time during this supposed recovery period. so does that at all have an impact on your thinking of saying, okay, maybe we do need to do some short-term stimulus. >> one of the concerns i have it about it is i think we could work together on infrastructure spending. regulatory reform, again, i wt to hit tichlts, it is a short-t stimulus for a permanent tax increase. i have heard from our business owners that that's not going to encourage them to create jobs. you see what's happening in europe also tells us that we better get our fiscal house in order. with the debt crisis in europe, if we continue to dig ourselves further in a hole and really don't address the fiscal crisis, we are going to find ourself in

the same position. that should be part of it, us doing our jobs, working together. we have that super committee working right now. that super committee should at least go for the $4 trillion in my view. >> senator kelly ayotte, i have to leave it there. not all republicans are united about whether they should go big on the super committee. you would like to see them do the $4 trillion deal? >> i would. i think it will help our economy. tax reform to lower rates is something we could do to help our economy. >> some people may pay more in taxes under a lot of these tax reform proposals. >> i think that lowering rates is something we could do. if we lower our corporate rate, that would help our economy keep capital here. i think that's something we could work together on. >> all right. senator kelly ayotte from manchester this morning. we will see you back here in washington in a few hours. >> thanks. tom on the show, presidential candidate, herman cain will be here fresh off the new hampshire debate. with our new poll showing him

running neck and neck with romney in iowa. tomorrow at 9:00 a.m., the herman cain train coming to "the daily rundown." we will get information from the other side of the i'aisle. chuck schumer joins me. they are trying to come up with plans b, c, d, and e. red flags for romney. there is the poll trouble we told you about. now, nbc news shows you the evidence that really does link the obama health care law to the romney massachusetts law. first, a look ahead at the president's schedule. he heads to pittsburgh after about 11:00 today. the daily rundown on msnbc. it's new! ahhh-ahh-ahh! it's nice 'n easy colorblend foam!

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we are veterans of the united states of america. we are veterans of the united states of america. well, as anger at wall street and washington spread across the nation today rk, the senate democrats push forward on the jobs bill. republicans appear to be united against it. senator chuck schumer serves on the finance and banking committees, number three ranking democrat in the senate. he has the job to get 60 votes. i would like to get your response and reaction to these "occupy wall street" demonstrations.

>> there is real frustration in the land. it is not just among the demonstrators. i was at the riverhead street fair on sunday. i go every year. eastern long island, conservative, republican, middle class, working class. a yearing a, t ago, the number comment was, cut government spending, wasteful spending. this year, it is about jobs, and layoffs about teachers and kids not getting science or music in the classes, about getting the economy going and helping the middle class pay the paycheck or pay for the expenses when the paycheck is going down and expenses are going up. so we are going to focus like a laser, both ends of pennsylvania avenue on the democratic side on jobs. when the republicans have no answer and vote overwhelmingly against the jobs bill, of course, we can't get 60 votes, you know that, chuck, without republican votes.

if they are just opposed and have some plan related to deregulation, which every economist says won't take effect for five years, they are missing what people want. >> looking back at the history of the senate, there is the way you figure out a way, how do you find the eight in this case? it sounds like you need eight or nine. first of all, are you going to keep all 53 democrats plus the two leaning independents? >> we are going to have the overwhelming majority of democrats. >> it is not going to be unanimous. >> you are going to see the overwhelming majority of democrats vote for a jobs bill. you are going to see about every republican vote against the jobs bill. >> how many republicans are you going to get? >> maybe one and probably none. they march in lockstep. they are ad da meant against that which they have supported. it is hard to believe they

wouldn't support a payroll tax cut that would give the average person $1500 to pump into the economy. why are they opposing it now? >> when you need a small slice of the minority party to get to the 60 threshold, we hear about negotiations. what negotiations have you participated in to try to rally the new england senators, brown, collins, snow, possibly some of the midwestern senators that over time have come to your side? what's been going on? >> we try to reach out in a bipartisan way wherever we can. the china currency bill is a bipartisan bill. senator brown and men o the democratic side. lindsey graham and jeff sessions on the republican side. >> what about the jobs bill? >> we are trying. it was crafted to include ideas, almost every single idea republicans had supported in the past. we are not going to get their votes today.

here is what i think is going to happen. the president is going out to the people. he is making the distinction, which he is very clear that democrats are for a jobs' bill to get the country moving. republicans are not. when the public starts turning and saying, do something, there is going to be pressure on the seven or eight republicans. it is no going to happen today. i know this this world we are demanding it has to happen today. over the next few months, i believe it is going to happen given what i have been hearing in conservative parts of new york state. one interesting thing. in the end of august, who do you have more faith in to get the jobs going, 40%, obama, 40% of republicans in congress? after a month of the president bringing it to the people shlgs 39% obama, 44% republicans. i predict over the next few months, we will see some give.

>> so what is the plan after today? the whole bill does not make it, you don't get to 60 votes, then it is piecemeal? you start doing it piece by piece? >> piece by piece. each piece has broad support among the american people. obviously, the payroll tax cut, which republicans have always supported. it is the kind of thing that they would propose to get jobs going. infrastructure has broad support and not laying off teachers. maybe it was because it was eastern long island. but i don't think so. i think in suburban communities throughout america where thousands and thousands of teachers are being laid off, not only is it the teachers and the families. but it is also the kids in the classes. how come my daughter isn't getting music? how come my son can't play j.v. football? these are things that are bothering people. as we draw the line on the specific issues, i think you may find the kind of coming together that we are not going to find on

the vote today. >> let me ask you about a couple of reports out there. there was a "new york times" on monday had this reporting about the relationship between senator read and bill daley. the top democrat considers. >> we are working really well together. it has gotten better offer the last month. we had a great meeting where we met with the team about coordinating our jobs efforts. we are singing from the same hymnal. we are going to be working really hard together on jobs. we are giving a little. they are giving a little. it is working well. >> so that sounds like you are kind of saying it was not working well over the summer or working less well? >> no, i am no the saying that. i am saying we are on this jobs issue, we are on the same exact page. things are going very, very well

in terms of coordination. >> you are happy with the staff at the west wing? >> yes. i have no problems with them. i talk to them regularly. they are open. they know we are not going to agree on every single thing, china currency is an exam. as long as we communicate with each other and focus on the main issue at hands, jobs and getting the economy growing and are in total coordination on that, it is going to work out well for democrats at both ends of pennsylvania avenue. i think we are all feel willing good about it. >> you will get 50 democratic votes today? >> we are going to get the overwhelming majority of democrats. >> over 50? >> overwhelming majority and virtually no republicans. that's the kind of contrast the american people are beginning to see. >> senator chuck schumer, number three in the democratic leadership. good to see you, sir. after sharp gains in wall street, is the market finally snapping out of its slump? >> plus, we are crunching more

numbers from our new polls. in iowa and new hampshire, two states that president obama won big in 2008, very much in play for 2012. the state by state battle has gun. first, today's trivia question. who holds the record for the most new hampshire primary wins? tweet me the answer @chucktoday@dailyrundown. for fan emily skinner, each day was fueled by thorough preparation for events to come. well somewhere along the way, emily went right on living. but you see, with the help of her raymond james financial advisor, she had planned for every eventuality. ...which meant she continued to have the means to live on... ...even at the ripe old age of 187. life well planned. see what a raymond james advisor can do for you.

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turning to wall street where the dow will try to extend monday's big gain. we are joined with the market rundown. was yesterday an illusion? >> we are looking at a lower opening in part because there are renewed worries in europe. this vote in slovakia, of all places, over increasing the

bailout fund in europe. they need all 17 countries to agree. it now looks according to "wall street journal" saying slovakia is poised to block the bailout expansion. we have seen red arrows start to move across the board both in europe and here. that is the news at the moment. also, we have some wall street ceos getting a little worried because some of the protests are moving uptown going past jamie dimon's house, rupert murdoch's house and others. that's the wall street buzz. >> thank you, andrew. "the daily rundown" will be back in 30 seconds.

tonight's republican debite in new hampshire is particularly of importance to rick perry. then, herman cain needs to capitalize on the poll numbers to break the flavor of the month trend. in manchester, new hampshire, we have a preview of tonight's action. you have seen all the campaigns showing up in new hampshire for once all at the same time. we know jon huntsman lives there these days. mitt romney basically lives there these days. have you seen any evidence that anybody else is starting to breakthrough? >> well, mitt romney is certainly securing his securing his lead here. new hampshire voters like seeing their candidates multiple times expecting them to put in a lot of times shaking hands. mitt romney is doing fine. rick perry has come three or

four times drawing big crowds. the poll numbers are not reflective of what we are seeing on the ground. herman cain who has surged in the polls has barely been here, chuck. it really depends. it's a very random season at this point in the game. >> there is the elusive and always talked about independent voter of new hampshire. are you seeing evidence that these independents are showing up to events, that they are curious, that they are kicking the tires of some of these republican candidates? we know the president's job numbers are just in pretty bad shape in supposedly blue new hampshire? >> absolutely, chuck. the independent voters are asking really tough questions. i have been to about 20 campaign events over the past few weeks and i have to say, they ask very well-informed questions. you have about 11% of people who are undecided in our latest nbc poll. we are seeing a lot of people, even democrats, showing up to the town hall meetings trying to

get a look at the candidates and seeing where they stand on the issues. not a lot of people are completely convinced in terms of mitt romney. they are not secure. >> jo ling kent, from the wonderful offices of the union leader. thanks very much. >> thank you. nbc news has obtained white house records showing that mitt romney's health care law wasn't just inspiration but truly the blueprint for the president's health care plan. a point he alluded to at a boston event last spring? >> because of you, we did what we have been trying to do for almost a century. with little assist from the former governor of massachusetts, we said health care should no longer be a privilege. in the united states of america, just like here in massachusetts, you should never go broke because you get sick.

>> michael issacoff is the nbc national inve nation national inveth gay tiff correspondent. >> what de did was look at white house visitor laws which are publicly available and looked at who they were meeting with in the crucial time period, 2009, 2010, when they were crafting the affordable care act. it turns out several of romney's advisers, health care experts, people consulted by the romney administration were also being consulted by the romney white house about how to duplicate what was done in massachusetts and on the national level. one, john gruber, an adviser on the economy, then appointed by romney to implement the health care law, had five meetings at

the white house, one with president obama, one with budget director, peter or zach and with the chief of health care. all about how to take the massachusetts law and turn it into a national scale. this is something that is a little bit awkward for romney. those connections between the massachusetts law and the federal law, obama care, is one that his rivals are pouncing on. >> what did the romney campaign tell you when you presented them. look, this isn't just talking point for republicans. these are two of the chief designers of the matt matt plan spending hours at the white house helping the white house design theirs. what did they say? >> first, they pointed me to comments that romney himself made after the president made those remarks saying if the president really wanted to know how it worked in massachusetts, he could have called me and asked me how it worked. well, he didn't call romney but he did call it turns out some of

the people who had advised him. also, they emphasized, look, romney has made clear, he doesn't want away from thes mama's law but he doesn't believe in this one size fits all national health care system. he wants to respect the states. he doesn't want to impose on the states. that's his basic retort to all his rivals, including rick perry, who are hammering home the connection between what they call obama care and romney care. >> one other point that i thought was interesting in your piece, that's already online this morning. people ought to check it out on msnbc.com. it was romney himself that insisted on the mandate. >> that's very interesting. jonathan gruber, that mit economist said when there was a debate within the romney administration about how to do this and the issues got presented to romney, political advisers were a little wary.

it was romney that decided, this is the way to save money and cult down on the free ride for uninsured people who go to the emergency room. jonathan gruber is quoted as saying, mitt romney should be considered the father of national health care reform. not a comment that the romney people are going to be particularly excited to read. >> as you pointed out in your piece. he wasn't meaning it to be an attack on mitt romney. he was meaning it to be a compliment. >> he was very complimentary of romney's role in the state license. he is a little bit disappointed about the way that romney has tried to walk away from the state law now that he is running for president. >> mike isikoff, thanks a lot. we are going to dive a little deeper into the new nbc news marist poll from iowa/new hampshire. who better to do it than lee

merrihof. the man that is going to help us with our state primary polls coming forward. we have two more coming next week. let's start with, lee, what struck you the most, on one hand, you look at the horse race numbers. they weren't surprising. romney had big in new hampshire. a muddled field in iowa. the difference is in the electors in new hampshire. flush it out. >> night and day. >> you are talking about in iowa, a far more conservative electorate. 82% in iowa tell us they are a conservative, an evangelical christian or tea party supporting. 17% say they are all three. the number is 59% in new hampshire. only 7% tell us they are all three. for a lot of reasons, not the least of which, i was far more conservative. it is a very different race in iowa. no clear front-runner. even though people in new hampshire aren't sold on romney,

he doesn't have a clear challenger. it is a very, very different tale of two states at the moment. >> you were talking about the new hampshire electorate. one way that it can get unstable, when we see these poll numbers change. i can't tell you how many times we have seen fall new hampshire numbers with big leads shrink quickly. usually, the most unstable portion of that electorate are the independents. what do they show? there is no democratic show in town. they are not performing particularly differently in terms of voter preferences between the candidates. we are not seeing this wave of independents. clearly, ron paul does better amongst some independent voters than he does elsewhere but right now, it is obama with 40 something, cane poll in the low teens. no one else is in double digits.

but, importantly, only 38% of new hampshire likely voters at this point say they are strongly committed to any of the candidates. the number for romney's 45%, a little better but clearly he hasn't closed the sale. as you say, things can happen sometimes even on the eve of nut hampshire primary, if you recall, just four years ago. >> that was an amazing number. more people in iowa said that they were sure of their vote versus new hampshire, even though the iowa numbers look nor maude lynn. let's go to president obama. his numbers here. his job ratings we noted earlier barely above 40 in iowa. they are two swing states we forget. they didn't look like swing states but they were in '0 # and 2000. the president under 40 in new hampshire, barely 40 in iowa. new hampshire has been this problem in the swing states for them all year long. i have heard them talk about it privately. our numbers showing it. who is he doing particularly poor with in new hampshire. >> the difference in new

hampshire and iowa are the independent voters. that's the group clearly when he was trying to go for the middle with the so-called tri an gu lation approach to things in washington, he was trying to appeal to independent voters. doesn't look like it was working. certainly, in new hampshire and iowa and theings nale poll suggested it wasn't working nationally either. we are seeing a little more red meat. in this case, for blue states to try to get independent voters back in line. i should say the democratic base, the more progressive part of the party back in line to try and generate some enthusiasm, which, after all, in 2010, was missing tremendously from the democratic side of things. >> one other part we should note that we measured romney versus the president in both iowa and in new hampshire. he trails the president in iowa, 43-40 but a big lead, 49/40, outside of the margin of error style of lead in new hampshire. i can tell you the path to 270

for president obama, they are always including new hampshire in there. mitt romney changes the map in new hampshire and possible michigan and some other states. that was a strong number for romney. is he getting more independents than perry was, for instance? >> absolutely. it is all about the independents in both states. >> that's what we are seeing. if romney is the candidate. if he can get through this primary season, he becomes a potentially much more potentially formidable foe. the other candidates are more popular with the tea party. if i can go back to iowa, one of the things we saw in iowa under the numbers was that among people who strongly support a candidate, cain backers are firmly committed to him. when we look at likely voters at a whole, they are very much neck

in neck but under the hood, some greater solidfy kags for the backers than for romney. that's something to watch, particularly in a low turnout environment like iowa. lee, our partner at marist. we allow other folks to go under the hood. we put up all of our cross tabs, everything we got on both states. it is online, msnbc.com at first read. we have it all up there, likely electorate. potential electorate. see you next week. >> all about transparency. >> thank you, sir. our super tuesday political panel joins us next and even more news from the campaign trail. first, the white house tip of the day. it was nothing yesterday. today, pretty good opening offer, tuscan chicken. i never quite know what it means when you add the tuscan. is it more rosemary, oregano? you are watching "the daily

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romney responded at a new hampshire town hall to rick perry's web video attack. here is how he responded. >> for some people in campaign, their process is one of object physical kags and bewill derment. people who are running against me are going to take what i have said and try and turn it to say something else. there is a little ad out there today that does that. >> democratic strategist jamaal simmons. phil musser, president of new frontier strategy and former senior adviser. welcome to the analyst table. now that you are unaffiliated.

got to ask you this. just saw this this morning. former minnesota governor, tim pawlenty, said he might have stayed in the republican presidential race longer had he known it would be this volatile. pawlenty says he would have persisted in the race if he would have known then what he knows now. >> hindsight is 2020. i would have loved for him to stay in the race. he made his decision. he has endorsed governor romney and is working hard for him now. >> you hear lee merrioff say less than 30% of romney supporters call themselves committed in iowa. we know what the pawlenty path was, sort of trying to be the more establishment alternative to romney. it was right there. >> obviously, you have been able to see the different trajectory of candidates come in and out of this race. it has been unusually volatile. a lot of the early thinking was to be available to the

electorate when the passions worked their way through. as lee mentioned in the poll, at the end of the day, most people haven't made up their mind and won't until the weeks leading up to the primary. >> all money. >> pure and simple. why not lay you guys off and try to do this as a one-man band. >> the governor made his decision. he brought a lot to the table and it wasn't for lack of wanting to go forward. i just think he didn't think he could put together the financial resources to compete. >> bill clinton in '92 was in the dumps in new hampshire. he stuck. john edwards in 2004 was in the dumps. he popped back. >> speaking of the guy who is popping. it is now herman cain, who had been relegated to the eighth or ninth spot at debates. now, he gets center stage, lois romano. here is what romney said yesterday. >> i was able to find ways to use my skills in a public sector

setting. that's probably something that if i was herman, i would say, i wish i had that too. you don't want to necessarily learn that for the first time as the president of the united states. he is a great guy. vote for either one of us and you will be happy. >> suddenly, mitt romney, i get message wise why he is saying it, private sector, that's the buzz word he wants to use all the time. what about a comment? >> we know cain is the latest, anybody but romney candidate. romney looks at him and thinks, that's okay with me, because i don't think he is going to go anywhere. if you are going to do an anybody but me candidate, go ahead and vote for him. just don't vote for the other guy, rick perry. i think it was free generosity on his part, just, great guy, he is not going anywhere. >> brings up a good point. not as if romney put his arm around trump or bachmann or perry. he is with herman cain. >> he raised $2 million this last year. >> and less than half a million

on hand i'm told. >> at the end of the day, very interesting and fun but not really very relevant. to get your message out there. >> if people want to tune in to this, i talked to a couple of tea party activists. go to the facebook party. there is a sub training in energy that equals real money. >> where is it, though? >> fair enough. that's his challenge. his challenge is he has got to start to show that he can put together some measure of structure to corral that energy. if he doesn't -- >> it doesn't help when he says he has secret advisers. >> i think what he is saying that some of the advisers from some of the other campaigns are helping him out. he doesn't want to blow it. he also desperately hasn't been examined yet. i don't know that the media will focus on him. he is getting a free ride right now. >> so far, we seal what it looks like tonight. jamaal, lois, phil, stick around. who holds the record for most new hampshire primary wins?

the answer like many answers in the republican party, it is richard nixon. he won it 1960, 1968, 1972, bac they went ahead and nominated, the new hampshire primary went with their front-runners. you're watching "the daily rundown" only on msnbc. rx plan gives you the lowest plan premium in the country... so you can focus on what really matters. call humana at 1-800-808-4003. it's pro-cool technology releases armies of snowmen masseuse who cuddle up with your soreness and give out polar bear hugs. technology. [ male announcer ] new bengay cold therapy. the same technology used by physical therapists. go to bengay.com for a $3 coupon.

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let's bring back our panel, jemal simmons, lois romano and phil musser. we heard chuck schumer on the show, overwhelming majority, are you going to get 50 votes? overwhelming majority. he's got to get 50. that would be a horrible political message. >> we already know that he only has 50, because we know hester, manchin and others are not going to vote. so they must be negotiating with a couple other people. what i don't understand is how they're going to execute the strategy of see how the republicans are obstructionists when they're not going to deliver all of their guys.

okay, don't ignore those guys, you know. they're just somebody else, but see how these guys are all obstructionists. i mean, that's their whole strategy. >> at this point. and the thing with hester, and manchin is they're up. >> who else is up is scott brown in massachusetts. >> he is the one -- >> in question. >> that's really interesting. >> that's who schumer was hinting at, although he's a big elizabeth warren person now. that's the one i'm told, well, he may come over to them. >> maybe he gets them to 50. >> but is that, you know -- >> democrats plus scott brown -- >> it's a 50/50. phil musser, that mottles the message for, frankly, both sides. gridlocked senate again. >> that's the bottom line. as you saw from senator ott, if you can't win over new england republicans on this jobs package, then you're obviously going to see another partisan fault line. the message to the country is more internal partisan bickering and a lack of a clear path forward. i think this bill's a nonstarter at the end of the day and we'll

see if -- >> but the obama campaign put out a memo this morning from david axelrod, and they make the case, you always focus on the president's jobs numbers. yeah, they're not great, but this has done more damage to the congressional republican brand. do you buy this? >> the congressional republican brand, you know, can't compete with the bully pulpit of the presidency if you're in the minority. in the minority in the senate, in the majority -- look, i think the message out of washington has been muddled and messed. that's why you have so much -- >> millionaires on wall street. >> i think it could be, but they don't have critical mass on it. >> that's what chuck schumer was almost admitting on air, we've got to lay the predicate and maybe in the end -- >> people aren't listening to them yet. they cones have a message. >> shameless plug time. >> apparently, my powers of persuasion working. i convinced iana dunn to marry me ten days ago, so i'm getting married. >> wow! bachelor no longer!

>> he's off the market, ladies and gentlemen, hearts are breaking. >> lois? >> thrilled oklahoma won on sunday and also i have a good piece on "the daily beast" about michele bachmann's fall. >> it has been a tough fall, although still in double digits, barely, in iowa. phil musser? >> enjoying coming on your show as a pundit and not having to deal with the pressure of the campaign and also, abby musser turning 6 tomorrow, so that makes it all worthwhile. i get to see her now. >> gets all of the awws, you know? how about that? that's to for today's "the daily rundown." tomorrow on the show, the herman cain train is stopping by "the daily rundown." next on msnbc, "chris jansing and co." here's your business travel forecast. i'm meteorologist bill karins. rain is moving up the east coast. along with it, a lot of cloud cover, too. so, those 80-degree temperatures

will be a thing of the past, but still pretty warm. 70-degree highs for new york, boston and d.c. atlanta, showers and 67. seattle dealing with damp weather, but beautiful in phoenix and l.a. [ male announcer ] whether over a cup of maxwell house... or a can of paint... you came together to vote, to share...

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good morning. i'm chris jansing, and this morning, new numbers showing some discontent among republicans with the 2012 presidential field. the new nbc news/marist poll shows that while mitt romney has a commanding 30-point lead in new hampshire, t