>> what did you learn? >> i would say that today was like an eighth grade class of boys who just realized they had a substitute teacher. >> i thought it was fun. >> it was a nightmare. nothing got done. >> willie, the world series finishing tonight? >> take it home. >> all right. what time is it? >> it's "morning joe." stick around for "the daily rundown." new poll numbers show herman cain still soaring and rick perry still dropping, but the biggest loser may be congress a crackdown on occupy wall street protesters in oakland, california, police use tear gas after moving them out of their encampment near city hall. and in california president obama joined jay leno on "the tonight show" but nobody was laughing when the conversation turned to the country's frustration with washington.

it's wednesday, october 26th, 2011, and this is "the daily rundown." first read of the morning, joining me nbc political report report reporter, let's start with mitt romney in ohio. >> mitt romney was in ohio yed and he had given support earlier this year back in june to the ohio collective bargaining rights law that went into effect. approached by governor john kasich there, but yesterday was a little bit different tone. >> we've got sound on it. let's play the comeback and come back with it. >> i'm not speaking about particular ballot issues. those are up to the people of ohio, but i certainly support the effort of the governor to rein in government. i'm not terribly familiar with the two ballot initiatives, but i'm certainly supportive of the republican party's effort here. >> now, the problem with that was in june, on a facebook post,

he said he wasn't supportive of the ballot initiatives. how much of this is a problem for romney in that it plays into flip-flop, he takes one position one time, another position another time. problem or a blip on the radar? >> you know, the other problem for romney who is standing on the steps of the place where they were making calls for support for this measure -- >> right. >> -- according to the embed there, yeah, you know, it's a problem. his biggest vulnerability is this authenticity issue. this is something that we saw with hillary clinton in 2007, that was one area where democrats thought that they could, you know, push on her with this illegal driver's license stuff from that debate in 2007, it wasn't exactly her answer that got her in trouble, but what happened over the next, you know, over the rest of that debate with chris dodd and days later, so, you know, this is something that the romney camp has to be aware of. they are. but rick perry went after him and hit him hard on that. >> i was just going to say, rick perry not missing an opportunity. here's what -- >> no.

>> -- his communications director ray sullivan had to say. mitt romney's finger in the wind politics continued today when he refused to support right to work programs supported by governor kasich. americans are tired of politicians who change their beliefs to support public opinion polls. getting right at that. i also wanted to talk about rick perry, really on the move. we saw a flat tax speech yesterday, he's much more aggressive and he's hiring new staff and he's got his first ad, a bio ad in iowa. let's watch it and come back and talk about it. >> as president i'll create at least 2.5 million new jobs. i know something about this. in texas we created over 1 million new jobs while the rest of the nation lost over 2 million. i'll start by opening american oil and gas fields. i'll eliminate president obama's regulations that hurt other sources of domestic energy like coal and natural gas. that will create jobs and reduce our reliance on oil from countries that hate america.

i'm rick perry, and i approve of this message. >> so, not surprising, he starts off on jobs, what he did in texas. how much of this do we expect? is this the rick perry message for the next month and a half or does he quickly turn it and go a little bit more negative on romney? >> and on energy, you know, he went right to the crutch on energy. you know, but, look, he's talking about 2.5 million jobs. if you do the math on that over a presidency, that's only about 52,000 jobs a month. there's 14 million people out of work, so it doesn't make that big of a dent. and since october of 2010, we've had 1.5 million jobs created in this country, 3.7 million were lost before that because of the near financial meltdown, but, you know, 2.5 million jobs probably a promise he can keep, but we ask today whether or not that's really bold, chris. >> right, absolutely. and, remember, thank you for mentioning the word bold because rick perry mentioned it three times, extremely bold, really bold, trying to channel herman

cain in a lot of times wrack with the nine, nine, nine plan, herman cain says how bold it is. there's been a lot of coverage, rick perry, 2.0, he's starting. a new "new york times" poll out he's at 6%, he's behind newt gingrich, he's behind ron paul. he's way behind romney and herman cain. is there a time for a rick perry 2.0? did he press the reset button too late? >> sure, of course, there's time. the thing is, you know, you mentioned earlier that he's on the move, making all these hires. the one thing that's not on the move are the poll numbers, but maybe they are on the move but in the wrong direction. but the thing is he has time. in fact, if he wins iowa, look that's where the person who is going to be the alternate to mitt romney will probably come out of. if he wins iowa and south carolina, all of a sudden we'll be talking about the comeback kid, he's got his mojo back. there's plenty of time and handshaking to do in iowa and he's got a ton of cash. like we talked about the first ad is going to blanket the airwaves with that, so, you

know, look, there's time, but he's got to get moving. >> i was going to say, there's time, but there's not that much time, 69 days, and, yes, i'm counting, i have the calendar, i rip off the day. i won't let you go without talking about president obama on "the tonight show." let's play a clip and we'll come back and talk about it. >> have you been watching the gop debate? >> i'm going to wait until everybody's voted off the island. once they narrow it down to one or two, i'll start paying attention. >> okay. so, a very good line. but we know that this president is monitoring the race, right? >> of course. of course, they are and, of course, he is. and, in fact, earlier this month, september 31st, october, he spoke before the human rights campaign and criticized the field for booing -- for a debate where a gay service member was

booed. so of course they can paying attention. it's a very fine line that presidents have to walk when they're running for re-election. they want to appear to be, you know, the president, not a politician, as we've talked about earlier. but, you know, that's a very fine line. of course, he's in campaign mode while he's trying to say he's not. >> political reporter for nbc and co-author of one of my first reads every morning "first read" i got it on my blackberry right before we came on air. if you haven't checked it already today, do it. thanks, dom. >> thanks. president obama wraps up his west coast trip in denver today, the final stop in a three-state swing where he's pitching a startling different message than the one he ran on in 2008. >> even though, you know, my hair's a little grayer now, even though, you know, i turned 50 and, you know, my girls say i look distinguished, but michelle says i just look old, even

though there have been setbacks and there have been frustrations and sometimes the pace of change is painfully slow, i want you to understand that we've got more work to do. >> california democratic congresswoman karen bass was with the president in los angeles this week and she made it all the way across country to join us now. congresswoman, thank you for being here. >> thanks for having me on. >> the president has talked about this on and off for a while now, that this is not 2008. now, you were heavily involved in the 2008 campaign in california. what's different this time? both with the president and with the country. >> well, i think the most important difference is, is the unemployment rate is still very high. but, you know, in 2008 in california, i was in the legislature serving as speaker, and we were in a complete freefall in terms of our economy. so, the crisis hit california a little earlier than it did the

rest of the country. i think when we look back, though, and reflect especially on the 111th congress, a tremendous amount was accomplished in the first couple of years. it's been since january i think when very little has happened. >> let me ask you that. because the president often says, especially when he's talking to his base, whether it's donors, saying we've got a lot more done than we get credit for. number one, do you agree with that? and, number two, why is that? is the message not getting out enough, they're not doing a good enough job for taking credit of what actually has passed? >> i think an absolute, a tremendous amount was accomplished. when he came into office, our economy was in a complete free fall, and although the unemployment rate is still very high, things are more stable than they were before. and i remember that very acutely. the stimulus that took place early in his presidency was very helpful to california, because we had such a huge deficit. when you have a republican leadership that says their number one goal is to make sure he's only a one-term president

and to pretty much go almost 300 days of this session with no legislation for jobs in the house, you can look at this congress and refer to it as a do-nothing congress. >> now, you brought up the republican leadership. >> exactly. >> the president has come out this week and said he's going to do executive orders on housing and student loans. >> he has to act. he has no choice. >> and the republicans, not surprisingly, have responded. here's house speaker john boehner. let's listen and come back and talk about it. >> the president says we can't afford to wait. well, guess what, i agree with the president. we've got 15 bills that are sitting over in the united states senate. it's time for the senate to work with the house and to work with the president to help find common ground to move our economy forward and get the american people back to work. >> well, let me just tell you, i don't know what those 15 bills are, but some of them are very frightening and i hope the senate doesn't act on deregulating the fda, rolling back regulations on the epa, the attacks on women. some of the legislation that has

come out of this congress i think only thing that's saving the president for having to veto numerous bills is the senate not acting. >> but let me ask you, don't people expect congress -- and i say congress broadly. obviously we have a republican-controlled house, we have a democrat-controlled senate. >> right. >> don't people expect congress to do something, because the cbs/"new york times" poll came out, congressional approval 9%, congressional disapproval 84%. i think the only people that you're better than at the moment are journalists and used car salesman, so i can't really speak, but don't they have an expectation that congress does something? >> and they absolutely should have an expectation. >> doesn't some of that fall on democrats or not? >> well, i don't think it does in the house, i mean, i truly don't. i think if you look at what was accomplished in the 111th congress, numerous bills were passed, there were numerous bill signings, a lot was done. in the 112th congress not much has been done because you have leadership that says their number one goal is to make sure that he only serves one term.

>> let's me talk to you quickly about 2012. >> sure. >> this is obviously, and the president has acknowledged, it's going to be a harder election than 2008. what does he need to do? give me the bumper sticker or the 30-second answer that the president needs to go to america to get re-elected? >> he's already done it with the jobs bill. but i think what he needs to continue to do is the executive orders. clearly congress is not going to act, he did an executive order on housing -- >> you are okay with that -- >> absolutely. we have to have action. to have action on student loans and to have action on housing and jobs. i do think that all of us have a responsibility to play. and so what i've been doing, for example, in my district is having numerous community meetings and telling people that we need to rally and demand that congress pass the jobs bill. and pass it in its entirety. not just cherry pick the pieces. the president put together a bipartisan bill, pieces that

republicans have supported in the past, but because he has put it forward, now all of a sudden they don't support it. >> let's go from the sublime to the not ridiculous but the lighter fare. i mentioned earlier that you were in california with the president this week, and he made an interesting stop -- >> yes. >> -- that i know you joined him at. let's watch a little bit of that. >> okay. >> i mean, it's got the hot sauce on there. the fancy presidential limousine. >> yeah. >> smelling like chicken. and we were actually going to a fund-raiser at, you know, with will smith and jada -- >> yeah. >> -- and i didn't realize it was so close. so suddenly we pull up, and my sleeves were rolled up and i got a spot on my tie, and my fingers -- i'm looking for one of those wet ones to -- i got chicken on my teeth. it was not elegant, but

outstanding chicken. >> outstanding chicken. >> outstanding chicken. >> okay, so the obvious question is, where were you guys and how can we find that place? because i know you were with him. >> i can tell you exactly where it is. >> and by the way, there you are with the president of the united states. >> i just have to tell you, it was an incredible honor when i was asked to ride in the presidential limousine and to participate in that motorcade and have it go through the african-american and latino community in los angeles, i'll tell you one thing, people complain in los angeles when the motorcade comes through, i guarantee you nobody was complaining that day. they were so excited. people were literally jumping up and down, and people told me later that folks had tears in their eyes, because they understand. it's not about celebrity. >> important for him to do these sorts of things. >> absolutely, absolutely. but it clearly is not about celebrity, because this is los angeles and you see celebrities, it's about history and people understood that. so, we went to roscoe chicken and waffles which is in my district as well as the two fund-raisers were in my district

as well, and it's on the corner of pico and la brea and the chicken is great, and when people walked in, people were absolutely in shock. people spontaneously started shouting four more years. he took the time to shake every single person's hand in the restaurant, and the restaurant was packed, and so it was very, very exciting. >> congresswoman karen bass, california, pico and la brea. roscoe's chicken and waffles, thank you for joining us. >> thank you for having me on. which party will control the house next year? the battle lines are being drawn, literally. we're geeking out today over redistricting. who's winning and who's losing as congressional maps get redrawn in states that could shift the balance of power in congress? and we're busting out the maps. plus, shock of all shocks! new doubts on capitol hill that the so-called supercommittee will be able to strike a deal by the looming deadline. gasp, i'm stunned. but first, a look ahead at the president's schedule.

there he is, he's leaving denver heading back to the nation's capital at 1:45 eastern time. you're watching "the daily rundown." only on msnbc. ♪ ♪ hey! it says just take one! i can't read. ♪ [ male announcer ] walmart has low prices, every day for halloween. from bags of candy to bigger bags of candy. backed by our ad match guarantee. save money. live better. walmart. the two trains and a bus rider. the "i'll sleep when it's done" academic. for 80 years, we've been inspired by you. and we've been honored to walk with you to help you get where you want to be.

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in the fight for control of congress, the political battle lines are being drawn, literally. right now, several states are in the middle of contentious struggles over redistricting, fights that could shape the balance of power in 2012. here to help map it out for us, nathan gonzalez, deputy editor of the "political report" and a writer for "roll call," and david wasserman, author of "the

cook political report." >> thanks for the shout-out. >> remarkable stuff there. let's get into it. i've got the ipad art th texas. >> it's the home state of pete sessions there's been a lot of pressure on republicans to draw a map that gives a lot of the four new seats in texas to republicans. republicans drew three out of the four, but this could be the first skirmish between the perry administration that signed the republican map into law and the obama justice department which objects to it because there aren't enough seats for latinos. the next court hearing is on halloween. republicans are spooked that their map could backfire. >> a big moment where and how minority districts should be created. nathan, let's move to ohio. another big state, but a state losing seats. >> ohio's a good example of even when the map is done and completed, the game may not be over. ohio's losing two seats because of reapportionment and

population loss. >> right. what you see up there, by the way, democrats and republicans each losing a seat because unlike texas that had vast growth, slower than the average national population growth, down two seats. >> republicans were in charge and continue to be in charge of the process, but they took an interesting tactic to say, okay, we're going to lose one seat but they chose to make the columbus area the democratic seat that makes other congressman make it much more republican and so instead of having maybe six competitive seats in ohio, democrats may only have a couple of targets. now, there is some ongoing legal maneuvering there -- >> isn't there always. >> so republicans still think they'll get their map, but it could be a lot messier. >> like a lot of these, it's a legal argument. but anyway, let's keep moving. dave, let's talk about new york. this is another state, like ohio, we've seen population in this country shift left and away from the northeast. the state losing two seats, a democratic and we assume a democratic and a republican seat. where are we? and a little early in the process, right? >> we don't know yet.

it's a conundrum, steve israel is from new york and so there's a lot of pressure on democrats and israel to get a good map out of new york to give house democrats a lot of opportunities to knock off republican freshmen who were elected in 2010, but there's been a big push for reform in new york to try and take power out of the hands of the legislature, it's probably not going to happen, it will probably still be three men in a back room in albany deciding the state map and it will come down to personalities and alliances. >> it should be redistricting when you look it up in tn in th dictionary. if you live in the northeast, if you're from the northeast like me, the population is not heading in that direction, pennsylvania losing a seat. what happens? >> pennsylvania shows what a difference ten years can make. republicans are in control of the process. ten years ago they tried to redistrict out tim holden in the eastern part of the state.

this year -- >> a democrat. >> a democrat. >> right. >> this time, they're going to pack democrats into tim holden's district in order to make the surrounding republicans a little more safer. now, in western side, it looks like it's going to fall to democratic congressman jason altmire, he'll have a tough decision to make, maybe run in the primary against one of his colleagues or maybe have to challenge a republican congressman, so democrats are likely to lose one seat in pennsylvania, but the map, we'll probably see it next month, it's not even released yet. >> let's go from the five-foot view to the 50,000-foot view, we skip the middle entirely on "the daily rundown." give me -- i've got the fancy graphic, i put an amalgam, you won't be held to give me your rh prediction, dave wasserman, we're at 192 democrats, if you are wondering, yes, there's one vacancy in oregon, david woo resigned his seat, a special

election there, yes, it adds up to 434, don't send us e-mails. dave wasserman, tell us where you think we'll wind up when we're done with all the map drawings in november 2012. >> we're talking redistricting alone not anything to do with the seats that will go back next year based on the regular politics of it all, but out of redistricting, i think it's basically a wash, but republicans have this advantage where they can basically move the goal line, quarantine democrats into very packed districts and republican votes are spread more efficiently, so democrats could win the total popular vote for the house by a couple points next year and still lose the house by a dozen seats or more. >> nathan? >> give me a number. give me a number for november 2012. >> with redistrictsing -- >> overall. >> 242. >> nathan gonzalez, that is -- >> if you tell me where the unemployment rate is, then i can have a better idea. >> we've got 242 and we've got 192. wow, nathan gonzalez, breaking

news today. >> there you go. >> let me ask you this, republicans control the house in 2013 or not? >> i think right now they do. i think democrats make single-digit gains as it stands. democrats are having a tough time running under president obama on the ballot at a time when a lot of these districts he's under 40% in districts that democrats need to take back the house. >> david was er mserman, and na l. gonzalez, on the twitter machine. thank you for joining us. european leaders hold an urgent meeting on the debt crisis. and john edwards' last-ditch effort to get the criminal case against him thrown out, charging the politics with playing politics. the details ahead. but, first, today's trivia question, how many current members of congress change their party affiliation after being elected?

you can tweet us the answ answer @dailyrundown, the first one will get a follow wednesday from us. the correct answer coming up on "the daily rundown." ♪ that was when i ruled the world ♪ i'm your blind spot. [ humming ] and my job is easy. hide big things. you're good... [ crash ] [ laughing ] [ screaming ] [ tires screech ] and if you named your own price on car insurance,

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let's get right to the market rundown. cnbc's andrew ross sorkin joins us now with the market rundown. andrew? thanks so much. we're looking at a little bit of a higher opening on some news. mostly good news on durable good orders that came out today, and a sense that there's a plan in europe, not necessarily -- it's more like a plan to get a plan. we're not there yet. but the big news today really on wall street, everybody's focused on, rajat gupta, the former head of mckenzie, and a former director of goldman sachs and procter & gamble and american airlines, he's been arrested and we'll find out what the charges are today, but they do relate to

insider trading charges. he'd been involved in the raj rajaratnam case, a hedge fund manager now in jail for insider trading and there were very bad tapes that came out during that trial that when rajat gupta was a board member of goldman sachs he was leaking some information to rajaratnam, and there's going to be some big questions about that, so this is probably one of the highest-profile people in the business world to get ensnared in this. this is someone who advised people like bill and melinda gates on their foundation, jeffrey immelt at ge and he was in the very high ranks of the corporate world. >> we'll be keeping an eye on it all day, thanks, andrew. >> thank you. "the daily rundown" will be back in 30 seconds.

i'm chris cillizza in for chuck todd, and you're watching "the daily rundown." and here's some other stories making headlines -- three more people have been rescued today after sunday's powerful earthquake in eastern turkey. the country's prime minister is blaming poor construction for adding to the death toll. at least 460 people were killed. there's new tension in oakland this morning after several clashes yesterday between police and demonstrators. violence erupted when officials tried to clear supporters of the occupy wall street movement from a plaza near city hall. dozens of people were also arrested in demonstrations in atlanta. and doctors expect former democratic presidential candidate george mcgovern to fully recover from a bout of fatigue. the 89-year-old was hospitalized in south dakota after completing

a series of speeches. the deficit supercommittee has less than a month to come up with at least $1.2 trillion in budget cuts. but if media reports are to be believed, there hasn't been much progress within the bipartisan group, and we may, once again, we looking at some last-minute clamoring for a deal. nbc's luke russert is on capitol hill. luke, what's the latest? >> reporter: well, good morning, chris. the latest news around the hill in terms of the supercommittee is that for the first time in a good while, we'll actually see them publicly today as they meet with doug elmendorf down here to discuss a variety of things about the budget in terms of defense spending and nondefense spending, but also there's a new report that came out from the cbo that said household incomes in the top 1% since 1979, their wealth grew by 279%, expect democrats to hammer that out of elmendorf to say, hey, that's why there should be revenue

raisers. in terms of the work of the committee, a lot of it has been secretive, but what you've heard from aides, they are three-fourths of the way there in terms of cuts, but in terms of getting all the way over the hump, they are still very far away because there are real discussions going on between should we raise revenue or cut entitlements, the same divide that has been plaguing capitol hill here since the beginning of this congress, chris. so, what's the pathway forward? they're going to meet with the gang of six members next week or publicly have them, rather, before their hearing committee. but in terms of making that deadline on november 23rd, i spoke to jim hensarling about it yesterday, he said, we're confident, we still have plenty of time, but honestly when you talk to members up here, they say they're confident but they're not necessarily sure whether or not this can really come to fruition because the window is so close. to tackle the issues the supercommittee wants to tackle like tax reform, as you know, chris, you need a lot of time. one more important caveat on all

of these, the deadline is november 3rd, i've spoken to countless members who said, look, if what they propose we don't like, we can punt it down the line and perhaps make a new deadline because the cuts don't come into effect until 2013. a lot of people are upset about the possible cuts to the defense department. the question is, can congress survive the supercommittee failing and can the u.s. economy survive that? we don't necessarily know the answer to that, but that very well could be a possibility toward the end of these deliberations. >> the three-quarters of the way there, it's always the last $300 million that is the toughest. luke russert from capitol hill joining us, thank you, luke. >> reporter: take care, chris. today is a big day in court for former presidential candidate and former north carolina senator john edwards. his legal team is set to argue the federal case accusing him of taking illegal campaign contributions in 2008 went beyond the law. was politically motivated and should be thrown out. nbc's senior investigative correspondent lisa meyers joins us with a preview of today's

proceedings. good morning, lisa. >> hey, chris, good morning. it's unusual for a judge to agree to hear arguments at this stage of the case, basically what edwards is trying to do today is to get his case thrown out before it goes for trial. some say it's the legal equivalent of a hail mary. >> reporter: john edwards walks back into a courthouse in greensboro, north carolina today, armed with five arguments why his indictment should be dismissed. it's a return to hard reality. just four days after the joyful celebration of his daughter kate's marriage. prosecutors charge that edwards requested, accepted, and received unlawful contributions in order to hide his involvement in an extramarital affair, and thereby, preserve the viability of his campaign to be president. >> no other candidate has ever been charged criminally with any case that even approximates this. >> reporter: ken gross the former head of enforcement for the federal election commission and previously a consultant for

edwards' defense arguing the case goes beyond the law. >> none of that money was used for any campaign-related expense. no tv ads, no radio ads, the paid campaign workers, otherwise advocate his election. >> reporter: the government says edwards broke the law by not reporting almost $1 million secretly provided by two supporters, which was used to hide his pregnant mistress rielle!h/t-9 hunter in fancy d on private jets. >> i don't think it's that novel. >> reporter: former federal prosecutor dan boyce says the government has laid out a strong case. >> the defense doesn't want the case to go to the jury. they're trying to get out of the case on a technicality. >> reporter: edwards insists he did not violate the law. he claims the case is politically motivated. he argues the republican u.s. attorney george holden filed the charges for political gain. just before announcing a run for congress. >> i'm george holden, and i'm running for congress. >> reporter: holden would not comment on the case, except to

say -- >> as far as our political corruption cases went, you know, we followed the constitution. we followed the laws. and we followed the evidence. >> reporter: if the judge doesn't buy edwards' arguments, he could be back in court for a trial in january. now, the judge is not expected to rule today. by all accounts, edwards faces an uphill battle to get the case thrown out, given the momentum of the federal indictment. most of the time judges would rather have a jury decide. chris? >> lisa, thanks for the report. >> you bet. up next, our hump-day political panel is here. rick perry tries to reboot, again. herman cain leads the polls, again. and mitt romney's rivals are charging him with flip-flopping, you know what i'm going to say, again. but, first, the white house soup of the day. it's cream of broccoli, kind of divided on this. on the one hand, i like cream, like ice cream, on the other

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this legislation is essential not only to pursuing and punishing terrorists, but also preventing more atrocities in the hands of the evil ones. this government will enforce this law with all the urgency of a nation at war. >> the daily flashback to this day ten years ago when president bush signed the patriot act into law. despite criticism that the patriot act infringes on american's privacy, president obama extended the law earlier this year. rick perry is trying to refocus his campaign on a jobs message hoping to reclaim the

mantle of turnaround expert from mitt romney, an ad promising twtw2.5 million jobs if elected. and romney is hammering perry on the authenticity of his conservative views. >> he says listen i need to say for whatever office i'm running for. how do you change positions on guns and traditional marriage? >> let's bring in our powerhouse political panel, perry bacon is my compadre in arms with the national political reporter for "the washington post," and reid wilson is editor in chief of "national journal's" "the hotline" and the only person on the panel with something of a beard. >> thank you, chris. >> sure. wanted to make sure i got that

in. let's talk about the poll, perry. herman cain, not a statistically significant lead over romney. i want to focus on 6%, rick perry who we all talk and write a lot about, 6%, this was the guy who was the front-runner a month ago. what's happened? and can he rerise as quickly as he's fallen? >> well, we know what happened. bad debates, bad policies on immigration, lots of problems with the campaign. we know what's happened. what can you do? he's starting to run ads today, that will probably help. he's running ads in iowa and in general there's a lot of time left. john mccain's numbers in 2007 at this point were probably pretty similar to this, very low down. a lot of room left and he's got a lot of money and money always helps. >> $15 million in the back. >> herman cain a lot of problems in the last few days in terms of his comments. >> cynthia, one thing that

herman cain hasn't had problems yet and he has a significant lead in the cbs/"new york times" poll, is among the self-identified tea party supporters. we've seen the tea party have a very heavy influence in 2010 in senate elections. is that herman cain's base, and can he keep it >> well, can he keep it is, of course, the question of the moment. but, remember, herman cain has been courting the tea party for a very long time. he was a talk radio host -- >> right. >> -- before he started running for president. the tea party has been his favorite audience, and he has been one of their favorite speakers. he does several things that they like. a lot of tea partiers are social conservatives. herman cain is very much a social conservative, in fact, he's an ordained minister. he's a rousing speaker. he's been bringing them to their feet for a long time. and i couldn't not mention what herman cain has to say about

race for tea partiers. you know many tea partiers have been accused -- the tea party has been accused of being racist. herman cain never gives a speech where he doesn't say that the tea party is not racist. they love that. so, it's very much his base. but as they get more serious about choosing a nominee, will they -- will he keep that support? it's hard for me to see how he does. >> one other thing i was going to stay to your list, which you're exactly right about the tea party, he's an outsider which i think they like. he's not a guy who spent his life at all in politics and he emphasizes that, too. reed, a guy named chuck todd, you may be familiar with the name, he's hosting the show, the reason he's not here, he's in ohio moderating a debate last night about the big ballot initiative over public sector unions and their collective bargaining power. now, romney was there, too, and waffled a little bit, we talked about it. didn't really take a position on it. perry hit him on it, romney's

finger in the wind politics, that's romney's communications director. how much of a problem is it for mitt romney? does it play to type and that's why it matters? >> i think it's going to be a problem in the general election. we've already seen president obama's campaign start to take on mitt romney the flip frommer. the fact that rick perry's doing it i think just boils down to the fact that this is still a two-person race. as i'm looking at these top five candidates in "the new york times"/cbs poll, mitt romney -- or newt gingrich has a ceiling, ron paul has a ceil, and herman cain doesn't have the campaign infrastructure. >> to cynthia's point, when the deciding point comes -- >> can he get people to a caucus in iowa on freezing cold night on january 3rd, rick perry has the money and the infrastructure to actually get folks organized and out to the caucuses and the primaries in new hampshire and south carolina, and at the end of the day it was rick per riff getting the press for hitting mitt romney. despite the fact that he's only

at six p6% in the poll, i think a two-person race. >> i want to throw this up because i think it's important. obama versus romney, a quinnipiac poll came out, barack obama 45, mitt romney, 41. ohio is a swing state. is romney's republicans' best chance to broaden the map as opposed to shrink the map. >> i don't think it broadens. he's the best chance. he's much more than rick perry would have problems in states like iowa and florida that romney might not have. i'm not sure romney would broaden the map, but he would make sure it's strong for republicans. >> to be able to hold the line at least. >> yes. >> we'll be back with all three of you in one moment. but, first, trivia time. we asked how many current members of congress changed their partyfilfiliation after being elected. the answer was four. a democrat and two republicans, they all left the democratic party to become republicans. now, senator joe lieberman from my home state of connecticut

switched from democrat to independent, and, yes, that was a cheap mention of connecticut. we'll be right back. you're watching "the daily rundown" only on msnbc. [ male announcer ] tom's discovering that living healthy can be fun. see? he's taking his vitamins. new one a day vitacraves plus omega-3 dha is a complete multivitamin for adults. plus an excellent source of omega-3 dha in a great tasting gummy. one a day, gummies for grown-ups. all your important legal matters in just minutes. now it's quicker and easier for you to start your business... protect your family...

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bad news is, your approval ratings 41%. >> right. >> the good news is, you're still three times better than congress. if you're grading on a curve, you're killing! you're killing! >> people are hurting out there, and they've been hurting out there for a while. and people were having a tough time, even before the crisis. every day, i wake up saying to myself, look, you can't expect folks to feel satisfied right now. >> let's bring back our panel, perry bacon, cynthia turk, and reid wilson. cynthia, i want to come to you on this. this is not a new piece of the rhetoric for the president that, you know, i'm a little grayer, and -- but statement, people say his tone has changed. he seems a little more downcast of late. agree? disagree? >> i think he does seem a little more -- the weight of the

presidency is clearly weighing on him. as is the weight of this horrible economy. he now knows that he's facing an uphill re-election battle. that ought to weigh on him. >> and reid, how much of this is just waking up every day and bad -- and we all know you wake up in a bad mood, you've got bad news on your doorstep. what the president sold in a lot of ways was hope and optimism. can he win on a "times are tough" message? it's dramatically opposed to what the messaging, at least, was in '08? >> that's his only choice. and for the hope and change candidate, he's going to go out there and make the case he's better than the other candidate, whoever it happens to be, and that was not the case he had to make against john mccain. he'll have to run a largely negative campaign. this is not the same candidate who promised to change the way politics are run. we'll see a very conventional campaign. >> a couple more poll numbers, from "the new york times"/cbs

poll, 46 approval, 46 disapproval. not bad at the moment. direction of the country, i think this goes to what we're talking about, 21%, right direction, 74%, wrong track. obviously, we know the unemployment rate is 9.1%. how do you say things are going to get better and acknowledge how bad things are currently if you're the president of the united states? it seems like a very tough line to walk. >> he's trying to walk the line. he's also saying, things were worse before and the other guys would make it worse. those arguments, voters tend not to really register -- >> george bush started it, and we could go back -- >> mitt romney would be worse. i'm not sure that's going to work. those are really hard arguments to make, very hard -- very challenging. >> how about the unemployment rate is now higher than congress's approval rating. >> cynthia, this is a tough thing, as to perry's point, to make this argument. what do you do, and we've already seen some democrats down-ballot distancing themselves from the president.

is that the right approach if you're claire mccaskill in a tough race in missouri, for example, or jon tester in montana. can you distance yourself from the president as a democrat? >> i was about to say, it doesn't work. for all practical purposes, yes, we are seeing some of them who are going to have tough re-election ballots, trying to distance themselves. but they still run with a big "d" by their names. so what happens then, if the president turns up and wins? so you've got a problem on two levels. you have done something that doesn't work, and if you win and the president wins, he's not going to be running to assist you. >> right, if he wants a second term. all right, shameless plugs, the bearded one, reid wilson? >> i'm going to have to give a plug to a guy named scott white, a state senator, just passed away, had an enlarged heart nobody knew about, but he's a great guy. we're all remembering scott lately. >> thanks, reid. >> cynthia? >> i'm going to shamelessly plug

myself. read my column about herman cain and race @cynthiatucker.com. >> she has her own website. perry? >> i'll do the same, plug myself about a article we wrote. >> it lays out where everyone is on taxes. and i will shamelessly plug the catholic university field hockey team, my wife is the coach. took out the number one ranked team in the country last night. they are 13-1 on the year. congratulations to my wife. i love her, and i'm proud of her. and congrats, girls. well done. go, cardinals. >> that is cool. >> that's it for this edition of "the daily rundown." never fear, chuck todd will be back tomorrow. he'll see you bright and early from seattle, reid wilson's hometown. coming up next on msnbc, chris januasing and company. and then at 1:00 p.m., be sure

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good morning. i'm chris jansing and here the number president obama wants you to focus on this morning. for the first time ever, outstanding student loans are expected to top $1 trillion this year. after mortgages, that's the biggest number in household debt. more than credit cards. and he says he's got a plan to do something about it. student debt is one of the reasons we've been seeing all these occupy wall street