million people unemployed because this nation is incredibly productive. >> what have you learned mika. >> a national bank transfer day for all of those that took part. >> she makes me so tired time. you mow, willie, sitting next to mika today reminds me of that great line. we must truly love those we don't truly understand. so, anyway, "morning joe." in a week since the sexual harassment accusations against herman cain consumed his campaign he seems to be holding up. will cain be able to weather this. one year out until election 2012 and we're unvailing our new nbc battleground map. showing what's shaping up to be a very fight race. wait until you see how much has changed before our last map

before the summer took its toll on the man in the white house. and the new site that plans to debunk all political advertising and call out all the campaign ads in a humorous way. monday, november 7, 2011. i'm chuck todd. a big monday show ahead including our live interview with republican candidate rick santorum. tomorrow today, this morning it is the new nbc news battleground map. the bottom line, the presidential contest is shaping up to be very competitive and potentially very close. 2004 meets 2000 but with the 2008 states. the toll this summer has taken tonight president. since we rolled out the last u.s. battleground map in april, five states have shifted towards

the republicans including vane ya and michigan. altogether the election will likely come down to these 11 toss up states. they fall roughly into three regions. the midwest, the new south and the west. so take a look at them here. you've got your pennsylvania, ohio, michigan, wisconsin, iowa. then nevada, colorado, midwest. remember, ultimately the presidential contest is a game of match. in the race, democrats have lost ground sense prince april. republicans have 195 and 147 electoral votes considered a toss up. in april it was 232 electoral votes in some shade of blue. the president to feepd the 74 electoral votes is as follows. florida, ohio, pennsylvania,

colorado gets him to 272. now, what's the quickest way for him to get there without florida and ohio. he would have to win iowa, michigan, north carolina, virginia, iowa and new mexico. that's whole point, to have different pads to 270 that would avoid them having to camp out in florida or ohio. it's been just over a week since the allegations of sexual harassment against herman cain surfaced. while the candidate has made no progress ending the controversy with the media, there is not a lot of evidence that it's hur his campaign. cain eluded the story during i guess a friendly douglas debeat. stood with fell ow candidate sunday night. >> what's been the whole surprise to you in this experience? >> running for president?

>> the nitpickiness of the media. >> guess he's had a tough week. he lost his patience when a traveling press corps tried to ask him a question. >> mr. cain, the attorney for one of the women who filed a sexual harassment complaint -- >> don't even go there? >> can i ask my question? >> no. >> please send him the journalistic code of ethics. i was going to do something my staff told me not to do and respond. what i'm saying is this, we are getting back on message. end of story. back on message. read all of the other accounts. read all of the other accounts. everything has been answered. end story. >> been awhile since we heard 9-9-9 isn't it. none of the women that have accuse him have gone public. without an agreed party disputing his version of events

cain has avoided the he shade/she said situation. so while wildly criticized, cain's response strategy seems to be working for now. >> i just don't see anonymous source sources as fair against a candidate. i think if someone has a real concern they should come out and say it. >> response has been unconvention unconventional. i think what you're not seeing yet is as much damage as you would expect in other years and other campaigns. >> a few things to think about. one is cain's base of support is among tea party republicans. these are not part of the establishment. and they certainly dope like the media. so you combine both things here. the establishment and the media is almost like sticking it to both. they are sticking by herman

cain. anybody else getting flashbacks to bill clinton. it eventually made him stronger. now, with herman cain under fire will another candidate be able to break through the coverage and catch on as an alternative to mitt romney who returns to iowaed to for just his fourth trip. could it be newt. he said ultimately cain's fate is up to the voters. >> if they conclude that anonymous allegations the american people could well decide they want the solution-oriented leader more than they want a scandal. i went through two months where folks in washington said my campaign was dead, i was gone. nobody in the country said that. >> the new nbc news wall street journal poll debuts tonight.

some surprising results on who is in third now and who is in fourth, let alone what the top two look like. plus, cnbc, our partners over there host the debate. 12 months until the presidential vote. both parties are honing their message about not only what they are going to say but also where. shawn spicer is here. >> welcome. >> thank you. >> let's start with the 11 tossup states. brad i'm going to start with you because it's all shifted basically away from the president, typically in a couple states that should be worrisome to you. if you throw in wisconsin and iowa, they have actually stayed in the democratic column. >> we're confident they will again, chuck. we are a year away from the

election. right now the entire has been played out with the republicans really having their say. their say is to bash the president, mislead about his record and try to one up each other on how ante obama they can be. this is a marathon not a sprint. we have operations in 50 states. we're open on average three offices a day. raising a lot of money as you have seen. more than the entire field on the other side combined. there is a long way between new and election day. clearly we would love for everything to be rosy. this is going to be a close election. >> i was just going to say. what's interesting here, one reason we have michigan is because of mitt romney. if romney is not there, do you agree with our assessment that romney is the only candidate that expands from that. >> no.

michigan has the third highest unploemt behind california and nevada. the end of the day when people look around and say things aren't getting better they are willing to make a change. michigan is like a lot of these unemployment states where unemployment is the number one issue. foreclosure is another issue. i think there is a point which they say hope and change didn't work for us. we need to move in a new direction. we need to get back to an agenda. >> let me ask you a couple 2011 states about swing staets. shawn, how concernd are you about ohio if this ballot measure that in some ways has become a referendum on the republican governor. >> not at all. again, chuck, i think at the end of the day when people go to the polls next career they are going to ask themselves a very simple question which is are you better off. they're in the. i think they are going to look at president obama

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so with the 2012 election a year away. the website debuts today. flak check.org is seeking to answer that very question. they are trying to do it with

humor. i recently smoke to the public policy center, the brains behind the new site about what she's trying to accomplish. >> dr. jameson joins me now. you have been a pioneer in this, the whole idea of being some truthiness, not just to political reporting but also to the political messages on the campaign side. that's what you're trying to do now with flack check. walk me through it. >> when a deceptive ad comes up and fact check grabs it and stars fact checking we're going to move it into a production process to create video parodies of the deceptive point and try to increase the likelihood as a result that people are able to see the deception but in a visual take down not just verbal. >> this is different. a lot of ad watchers in the past. the person that has encouraged people to do the ad watch boxes. but always went into the specific facts and got into the

policy. you actually want to get into almost the visual deception a bit. >> we want to be able to focus the viewer on the techniques that are being used to advance. when they see it in other ads they will recognize it as well but try to create a penalty for those ads. we're going to try to do it in a way that is humorous to increase the likelihood that we reach audiences that might not be inclined to read a fact check. >> well you have multiple clips. the one fun is how easily that could have been imagined if a len c lincoln had to deal with the treks of the trade. >> lincoln believes america will perish and that our soldiers have died in vain. >> died in vain. >> honestly, abe, "died in

vain". abraham lincoln, wrong for the war, wrong for the union. >> this is a way to draw folks in to what you're trying to do. if you did an ad watch, on the policy front you might not even understand what the -- >> well you might know sis we've taken it out of his own words. we've led you to believe he said what he never actually said but it sure looks like he did, doesn't it? we're going to air those every week. one new attack on abraham lincoln starting january 1 coming to a television near you. >> but also you guys want to do something and i thought this was interesting. you brought another example of this. attack ad on harry reed, that very nasty senate race about how you'll create a product to walk folks through the deception. let's show an example and then you can walk me through.

>> want to know how out of touch harry reid. he actually paid for a child ad for convicted child molesters and sex offenders. what else do you need to ne about harry reid. >> connection. harry reid tabled all amendments including one banning viagra for sex offenders. >> you were actually going to produce an ad with it to try to explain where did they get that viagra stat, not just asking it written down where you or i tells them he got it from s bill da, da, da. >> we're trying to take the complexities understood by people who watch your program but not understood by most and digest it down for folks who don't pay attention to the

legislative process. and that large harry reid head and that scary sound in the background. in the end our young woman actually has a headache in all that noise they have been offering her in that ad. >> you have two goals. one is you're hoping to get the ad makers to get geuilted into being more honest. >> yes. >> and you are taking us on demon sheet. we thought it was humorous but it were concerned that while we may have understood the humor, it may have been a little bit deceiving. here is what we kept explaining on demon sheet. explain how we could have done it better. >> a wolf in sheep's clothing. the man who literally helped put the state of california on the path of bankruptcy and higher taxes. fiscal conservative or just another same old tale of tax and spin authored by a career politician who helped guide us

into this fiscal mess in the first place. >> if we see one of these funny web ads how should we have handled it from the beginning before we played the ad? >> the popes of the ad that you put on screen weren't manager a -- magnifying deception. the ad is full of all the negative things about him but doesn't quote a part of the report that shows the positive things he does. when you put that up you're making the case that he is what she says he is. >> even though you say that is kind of weird, kind of mocking. that's what you're concerned, these visuals get out there anyway. >> you're mocking the funny dee minnesota sheet with the red eyes but not showing they took it out of context. >> all right. the site is flack check.org.

i like it. i think me ear going to be seeing you a lot to try to bring some sanity to campaign messaging. thanks very much. congr congratulatio congratulations. the next act for the greek drama is playing out. italy's government might fall next, too. the market run down is coming up. plus, presidential candidate rick santorum joins me. the first traif ya question. what was ronald reagan doing when president carter called to conseed the election. the answer and more is coming up on the daily run down. we'll be right back. [ male announcer ] what if we told you that cadillac

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wall street. the market run down.

we're joined by cnbc's brian shackman. how is the market handling italy's news? >> we've improved throughout the morning, chuck. since you brought up italy. berlusconi said he wasn't stepping down. there is a lot of pressure for berlusconi to step down. he's facing a 50/50 confidence vote. pretty unbelievable. greece is getting a new coalition government but they don't have a prime minister yet. they have to do that before they can get the next chunk of money to keep that government agloat. people have turned their attention to italy. 10-year bond is record high. basically means it is so expensive for their government to borrow money which the whole point of all this was to keep their borrowing cost down.

that hasn't succeed. stock prices were down. as we head to opening it was actually back to slightly positive. the s & p is back. >> there was a time italy changed governments weekly. "the daily rundown" will be back in 30 seconds. headlines. iran is reportedly closer than ever to having the ability to build nuclear weapons.

nuclear experts tell wash post that the islamic republic has mastered it with the help of a former soviet scientist. iran is dismissing the report. the iaea is due out later this week. two formal officials at penn state will be in court today on charges of lying to investigators about an alleged child abuse carried out by a colleague. the school's former defensive coordinator is accused of sexually abusing eight boys over a 15 year period. prosecutors say the two other administrators were told about the incidence but failed to report it. they have now both resigned overnight. another two days before power returns to thousands of homes in connecticut. families are still in the dark nine days after a strong storm hit the region. remember that october snow fall. the state's largest power utility is apologizing.

we're having a little bit of a satellite issue with rick santorum. want to explain what's going on. total transparency here in the world of television. not mr. santorum's fault. it is our satellite. herman cain says he plans to stay on message. he talked about one person we haven't seen since the story broke, his wife gloria. >> my wife obviously, like most spouses, actually took it harder than i did because she knew about this. she knew it was from 1999. it's like i'm in a boxing match everyday throwing punches back. well, when you have to turn on the tv and watch all of the exaggerations and innuendos about your husband that you know high pressure done anything wrong it can have an emotional toll but she's doing fine now. >> by the way, that was fox's

music choice there. josh green is a senior national correspondent for bloomberg business week. general sake is now vice president of the global strategy group and msnbc analyst michael steel is the chairman of the republican party. josh, you spent a lot of time with herman cain a few months ago. is this a money making adventure. it was sort of the thesis of your campaign. different herman cain now. what did you learn traveling around with the cain campaign? >> strange. different than any other kind of campaign. cain shoots from the hip. he is a fun guy to talk to. he is a fun guy to report on before all the scandal stuff broke. he was having more fun than anybody else. now after these revelations of alleged sexual harassment he has tried to put it behind him. early on he said i'm going to put this behind me and then we

heard last week nothing but sexual harassment and cain. >> three numbers i haven't heard in awhile. >> 9-9-9. >> michael steel, explain why he hasn't fallen out of the polls. he has not gained anymore. this isn't right now hurting him among his supporters. >> joe and i got into this last week. i think it goes to the core of what you see with the base. they support him. they like him. they feel he's under attack. they are rallying around him. this is a 12-year-old allegation. no one is coming out visually so you don't have a face to put on the allegation. a lot of his supporters see this as something coming from the left and the media or coming from the democrats. so they want to support their guy. they like him because they connect to him. they connect to him because he sounds like them. he's talking their language. as long as he's doing that this other stuff is less important. hen he says i want to get back to my message and talk about

9-9-9, you have a lot of head nodding from folks that say we want to know more. that's helping him new. >> so as a democrat and knowing how the white house on rates it has been my understanding that they have been frustrated that everything has gotten attention except mitt romney's record. this is another week where you don't have any help from republicans. >> i think the fact that herman cain still cons to lead in the polls and really stay in some polls says more about the republican in the race than it does about herman cain. he was recently in a washington post poll that came out over the weekend or on friday. herman cain was ahead of mitt romney on empathy. that means that republican voters aren't sure about him. they don't trust him. they don't know where he is on issues and certainly that's frustrating because herman cain isn't running a serious race for president. he isn't competing. he isn't really competing on the

issues. >> but michael steele is mitt romney? the two people who have spent the least amount of time. the guy that has spept the most is rick santorum. he's at the end of the polls doing it the old way, the way you're supposed to supposedly do iowa. >> mitt is strong in iowa because he's organized, awesome on the ground. he's got some holdover from the last campaign. cain is strong in iowa because of everything we just talked about. >> josh green, you get out there and talk to some of these voters, why aren't they responding to romney yet? >> it is the same old things. he does have a segment pretty firm in polls. he got 25-26% of the vote in the caucuses in '08. he's at about 25% now. doesn't seem to be able to break beyond that. for some people because of health care.

for some, because of his religion. others just don't trust him as a conservative. >> i want to play a sound bite from ron paul because he was asked a question which has been floating out there which is this idea he may not support the republican nominee and may actually go the next step. >> can you state flatly that you will support the republican nominee in the off chance that it isn't ron paul? >> probably not unless i get to talk to and final out what they really believe in. if they believe in expanding the wars. if they don't believe in looking at the federal reserve i would be reluctant to jump on board and tell all the supporters that have given me trust and money and say all we have done is for not. >> he has this segment of disinfected voters that are are just fed up with the system.

they just -- ron paul's rhetoric resonates here. he's run third party before. it felt like i'm not going to do it because i'm tired. didn't feel like i'm not going to do it because i don't have a message. >> that's something i can keep an eye on for him. ron paul has stated he is in this thing all the way. what does that mean? well he's going to be on the ballot some time next fall. i wouldn't could want him out. >> how concernd is the white house? i have heard people say third party candidate would be great. i have heard others say that could actually i faekt more. >> ron paul has a following. he has people who like him. he has taken away from the republicans running for president which says something about the field. i think if he is somebody that decides to run all the way through that's something that could potentially be helpful. really depends who it is. >> could this be one of those

years where four or five or six candidates that are semiknown try to run? >> this is such a strange cycle, anything can happen. >> we know tlar lot of entities out there that are trying to make it easier to get on the ballot. >> yosjosh, jen, we'll keep you around because i have to get your shameless plugs if nothing else. we'll be back with rick santorum. moderating a republican presidential debate focusing on the economy live from oakland university in rochester michigan. all suburbs of detroit, folks. first, the white house soup of the day in honor of the greek debt crisis it's greek lentil stew. quite the stew taking place in athe athens. you're watching "the daily rundown" on msnbc. ysta io

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i have just september the following telegram to president nixon. congratlaegss. i hope that in the next four years you will lead us to a teem of peace abroad and justice. >> a telegram. president nixon won re-election in a landslide. he opted not to make a concession call because faced with the extent of nixon's landslide he figured the telegram would be easier. go figure. rick santorum has taken his conservative message to all 99 iowa counties but still running 7th in the state polls there. while it is herman cain who doesn't come to iowa leading the feemd. rick santorum joining me now from florida. senator, this is not your fault, our fault.

sat lieellite truck issues. thank you for doing this by phone. >> caller: this is better for me. >> you an me both my friend. >> you have done this the old fashioned way where the play book of iowa has been you have to go to every single community. can't just sit in the zone of des moines and think you can win the caucus there is. it is not yet translating in polls. what's your assessment as to why that is. >> we're making phone calls and as you mentioned i'm visiting all 99 counties. what i hear from voters all over the place is you're on my list. we are still trying to make that decision. our phone calls, we're finding that there are about 75% of people in iowa who are not decided.

we believe our cam pane was always designed to focus on grass roots and build sort of the field of dreams candidate. if you build it, they will come. we are very, very confident we're going to do exceptionally well in iowa. that strategy to go out there and see people will pay off. >> senator, you have been somewhat critical of herman cain and these allegations this way. you have said hey, i have been vetted with -- basically saying this guy hadn't. there aren't going to be any surprises. explain why you put it in those terms. >> campaign i have been out there running saying experience matters. i know there are a lot of folks who said there are a lot of folks new and different an outside of washington. we elected the last president who was outside of washington with very little experience. hasn't worked out very well in the eyes of most republicans and most americans.

i made the point that i'm someone with a lot of experience who has experience on national security, has experience on moral culture and leading in those areas and welfare reform. that's really the contrast i have been making and that goes through with someone who has been through a tough political campaign. i have been through three statewide elections in a state with 13 and a half million people and was really in a national race in many respects as a leader of the republican leadership. i am someone who has been tested and has stood as everyone will recognize stood by my conservative principles throughout. >> let me ask you this. you have the title senator. congressional approval rating is at 9%. >> caller: could you stop saying that. >> i understand that. what it is i was coming up with this. since you got elected in 94 to the u.s. senate, you were in the house before that. republicans have been in charge of some aspect of government all

but for two years. either the house, senate or the presidency. do you think that has been your stumbling block that people look at you and say you know what, you've been in wash. we don't want a washington guy? >> same thing that happened with newt gingrich. i would say look at the record. that's what i keep telling everybody. okay fine. look at the fact that i was in a gang of seven and was really the reason under the 1994 congressional change that threw the democrats out after 40 years. with all due respect to newt it really wasn't the contract to america it was boehner and santorum trying to egs pose all the krufrpcorruption. if you look at the record of welfare reform and balanced budget aems and taking to the floor the united states senator with my spe -- spendometer.

i was the one on pro-life and pro-family issues. it is a record of i was there but look what i was doing there. >> is mitt romney conservative enough to be the nominee of your republican party? >> whoever the nominee is for the party of the eight folks in there i'm going to support and will be far better than barack obama but clearly i am more consistent, awe then thick, conservative than mitt romney. i ran in 1994. i ran if a state with almost more than a million more. i ran with an incumbent whose cam pane was being managed. i took on that incumbent as a conservative. mitt romney ran a race that same year against ted kennedy and ran as a liberal republican. i got elected and he didn't. i stood by my principles

throughout the time i was in the united states senate and i have not changed. i have been an authentic consist tep conservative and i have won in a swing state. you mentioned the states in your program. you notice there is one state for obama to win, pennsylvania. i can win pennsylvania. >> can you? five years ago you lost by 18 points. >> yeah. it was a horrible lesson. we lost five congressional districts and the state house by the largest margin sense the great depression. it was a melt down year in pennsylvania. i remean everybody that we won by 10 this time and we elected a conservative senator. the atmosphere in pennsylvania has changed dramatically thanks in large part to this president. i feel very comfortable the things i was talking about in 2006 that were very much unpopular are now part of the main stream of this country. in particular, the talk that i was out there way ahead of the

curve on iran. we're going to see this week that rick santorum's predictions and all the things i have been talking threat to the president, a threat to the security of this country is coming to bear. >> let israel bomb a nuclear facility in iran or would you have the u.s. do it instead? >> if iran was one country away from us on our southern border and said repeatedly that they wanted to wipe the united states off the face of the map and were developing a nuclear weapon, would any president let them do it? of course not. and israel would be crazy not to stop them from developing this nuclear weapon, given the fact that iran has been running holocaust denying programs basically saying the very existence of the state of israel is unfounded. there was no holocaust. >> you would support -- >> we should destroy them. >> you would support -- what is your preference, if military action is the -- is the decision that's made, do you want israel

doing it or would a president santorum have the united states doing it? >> the president of the united states should stand shoulder to shoulder with israel and we should stand by them every way possible. we would have to. we need to support israel and n. making sure that if this report comes out that iran is, in fact, close and israel and the united states collaborate together in decide that this is the only way that this program can be stopped, then the united states must stand with with israel in a military strike. >> all right. senator rick santorum, going to leave it there. hope to have you back where we can have a visual. i knee you tweeted a photo of where you were in the studio. >> give the officials if we can for you guys. >> it is not you. it is us. senator, thanks for coming on this morning. >> thanks, guys. trivia time. we asked what was ronald reagan doing when president carter called to concede the 1980 election? the answer, reagan was taking a shower. we'll be right back. uh, i'm in a timeout because apparently

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i'm going to bring back the panel very quickly. michael steel, straight up question, you've had to sit through me and that interview with rick santorum on the phone. why isn't he catching on? >> that's the santorum we don't see all the time. relaxed, not angry. >> usually angry. >> comes off a little angry. >> forget you're a democratic strategist. but as a republican you would think he touches all the notes you're supposed to touch? >> this is a sound bite primary. people are running on don phrases that sound good, 9-9-9. it doesn't matter what the plan does. santorum is running an inside washington campaign. it's unfortunate because a lot of the plans the other candidates are running with, whether it's 9-9-9, flat tax, those are plans that are exactly to the 1%. those are plans that are going to hurt them. there will a noose around the neck in general.

>> his plan sort of a little more based on reality of what might pass congress it. >> adds up and might pass congress. his problem, i hate to say it, he's a reality based in a candidate where candidates like cain who are likable to get more pop. >> and losing, i think, having that tag of you just didn't lose re-election, you lost by 18 points. it's something -- >> in a swing state. >> a swing state. he wants to make the swing state argument but it's -- >> that was a tough year for a lot of republicans sglts. >> quickly, shameless plugs. >> 59 points, the only bright spot. >> cincinnati bengals and antidalton, redhead. >> how about that? >> i'll plug he'd heads, too, but lsu. they won a big football game. i'm giving a talk there on wednesday on presidential journalism. >> politics. and gumbo. that's it. tonight on the nbc nightly news, the new poll. state of american, we need to

hear respondents from american on that. we'll have the full breakdown tomorrow for you on the show msnbc super tuesday. we're beginning it again. coming up next, chris jansing and company. around at 1:00, don't miss "andrea mitchell reports."zing o. the natural oatmeal formula improves skin's health in one day, with significant improvement in 2 weeks. i found a moisturizer for life. [ female announcer ] only from aveeno.

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