tonight. >> thank you so much, lawrence. >> you can have the last word on-line at the last word@msnbc.com and you can follow my tweets. wait, wait, don't tell me! let's play "hardball." good evening. i'm chris matthews up in new york. leading off tonight, let's go to the videotape. we have two pieces of tape tonight you just can't take your eyes off. the first is herman cain's bumbling answer on libya, which almost makes you forget that "oops" of rick perry's. if fear of foreign policy questions is a criterion for winning the republican presidential nomination, cain is a shoo-in. the other bit of must-see tv is bob costas' interview last night with penn state's jerry sandusky. to believe sandusky's denials is

to believe that everyone else is wrong or lying and that he, jerry sandusky, is innocent of anything bad. well, you've got to see this interview, too. plus, take me to the return window. democrats today began their effort to recall wisconsin governor scott walker. walker's one of three new republican governors in big swing states, john kasich in ohio, and rick scott in florida are the others, whose approval ratings are in the negative territory. both states, those states, could well determine the election, and unpopular republican governors could be very good news for president obama. and with enemies like these, who needs friends. michele bachmann's new web ad makes a devastating case against every viable republican in the race. in other words, it doesn't include her. it's so good, she's done the democrats' job for them. more must-see tv tonight in the sideshow. and let me finish with the two things driving the republican presidential race -- hate and indifference to experience. we start with herman cain. michael steele is the former

chair of the republican national committee. he's now an msnbc political analyst. and dana milbank is a columnist for "the washington post." gentlemen, let's go straight to the tape, as howard used to say. here's herman cain yesterday answering a question from the editorial board of the "milwaukee journal sentinel" about libya. let's watch and listen. >> so you agreed with president obama on libya or not? >> okay, libya. president obama supported the uprising, correct? president obama called for the removal of gadhafi. just want to make sure we're talking about the same thing before i say, yes, i agreed, or no, i didn't agree. i do not agree with the way he handled it for the following

reason. nope, that's a different one. um -- let's see, i've got to go back and see. got all this stuff twirling around in my head. i would have done a better job of determining who the opposition is, and i'm sure that our intelligence people had that -- had some of that information. based upon who made up that opposition, okay, based upon who made up that opposition might have caused me to make some different decisions about how we participated. >> what do you make of that, michael steele, that performance by the candidate who's now leading in some of the polls for the republican presidential nomination? >> honestly painful. it's very difficult to watch. it's very difficult because you

know, and everyone has acknowledged, that this is a very, very weak spot for herman cain. and i think that at this level and certainly at this point in the campaign, you've got to get this stuff where it's second nature. it's not the same as what perry went through the other night, where you're going through a check -- and you just blank. this is clearly trying to pull the card that has the points, and that's just not how you go about speaking about foreign policy, because it is such a fluid area of our life in this country and in this world. and you've got to be on top of it. so i think it was a very painful moment to watch. there's a lot, you know, that can be made of it, for the negative. but i think that the bottom line is folks are looking at that and going, okay, that 3:00 call in the morning, you know? and that's not a spot you want to be in when the vote starts in six weeks. >> let's go to dana, because i usually don't go -- first, it's

not about brains. the guy's a smart guy. it's about preparation. >> absolutely. >> i want to go to dana about this.

>> that's what that's about, economically, you know the united states has been trying to get other asian pacific countries to get involved in the trans pacific partnership, which would be economically and on trade a sort of counter weight to china. it all is under this umbrella of confronting the challenge that is china both on economic terms

and then here wreathly, what is of concern to some of these asian pacific democracy. china's increased military presence. >> there is also some talk about associated with reaching his goal of doubling american exports, creating jobs. what do we expect him to say about that? >> probably similar to what he said in hawaii during the asian pacific economic conference and where we're headed to next, which is indonesia, where there's going to be a meeting of more rising asian countries. all of these countries that are participating in the asia pacific conference here in australia less so, all over southeast asia, their economies are growing. the united states would give their right arm to have some type of growth like they're seeing. as they grow quickly, the president's goal has been to try to figure out a way to have

tighter ties with some of these countries in order to help the u.s. exports and, therefore, grow the u.s. economy. while it's an international trip, the president's been trying to make it have an economic focus, so that it doesn't look like he's taking his eye off the ball about creating jobs. >> there's security focus, chuck, you touch on this a bit. there could be this -- actually, the press conference is just beginning, let's listen in. >> an opportunity to welcome president obama to australia for his first visit as president. he's no stranger to our shores, having visited australia before. it's a delight to have him here as his first visit as president. it comes as an important time in our nation's history, and the history of our region. we will be looking back during this visit and we'll be looking back at 60 years of the answers.

we'll be looking back at 10 years of the dreadful day of 9/11, and we will be reflecting on those eventses. we will be looking forward, we live in the growing region of the world where global contribution to global growth is a profound one. we live in a region which is changing. changing in important ways. and as a result of those changes, president obama and i have been discussing the best way of our military's cooperating for the future. so i'm very pleased to be able to announce with president obama that we've agreed joint initiatives to enhance our alliance. 60 years old and being kept robust for tomorrow. it is a new agreement to expand the existing collaboration between the australian defense force and the u.s. marine corps

and the u.s. air force. what this means in very practical detail is from mid-2012, australia will welcome deployments of a company-sized rotation of 200 to 250 marines in the northern territory for around six months at a time. over a number of years we intend to build on this relationship in a staged way, to a full force of around 2,500 personnel, that is a full marine air/ground task force. a second component of these initiatives which we have agreed is greater access by u.s. military aircraft to the royal australian air force facilities in our country's north. this will involve more frequent movements of u.s. military aircraft into and out of northern australia. now, taken together, these two initiatives make our alliance stronger, they strengthen our

cooperation in our region. we are a region that is growing economically, but stability is important for economic growth. and our alliance has been a bedrock of stability in our region. so building on our alliance through this new initiative is about stability. it will be good for our australian defense force to increase their capabilities by joint training, combined training with the u.s. marines and personnel. it will mean that we are postured to better respond together along with our r other partners in the asia pacific to any regional contingency including the provision of humanitarian assistance and dealing with natural disasters. in addition to discussing this global force posture review by the united states. and these new initiatives in our alliance, the president of the united states and i have had an opportunity to reflect on a

number of other issues, to reflect on circumstances in the global economy. to reflect on a clean energy future for our nations and for our planet. to reflect on the forthcoming east asia summit, president obama will proceed from australia to that summit in indonesia, where he spent time growing up. we've had a comprehensive discussion, a very much welcome president obama to australia. i think he's already seen that the welcome he's getting from australi australians, including australian school children is a warm one. i know it's going to be sustained during tonight's events and the events of tomorrow. president obama, over to you. >> good day, everybody. and thank you, madam prime minister for your generous welcome, your friendship and partnership. i am thrilled to be down under. as you may know, this is not my

first visit to australia, in fact i first visited australia as a boy. i've never forgotten the warmth and kindness people extended to me when i was 6 and 8, and i can see that the australian people have lost none of that warmth. i very much wanted to take this trip last year, and events back home prevented me from doing so. i was determined to come for a simple reason, the united states of america has no stronger ally than australia. we are bound by common values, the rights and the freedoms that we cherish. and for nearly a century, we've stood together in defense of these freedoms. and i'm very happy to be here as we celebrate the 60th anniversary of our alliance and as we work together to strengthen it for the future. we are two pacific nations, and with my visit to the region, i

am making clear that the united states is stepping up its commitment to the entire asia pacific. in this work, we're deeply grateful for our alliance with australia and the leadership role that it plays. as it has been for six decades, our alliance is going to be indispensable to our shared future. the security we need and the prosperity that we seek, not only in this region but around the world. i'm also very grateful for my partnership with prime minister gilard. we've worked quite a bit together lately. >> we have. >> spanning time zones, the g-20, apec and ttp in hawaii and now on to bali for the east asia summit. this speaks to how closely our countries work together on a wide range of issues. in my friend julia, i see the quality that we americans admire most in our australian friends,

somebody who's down to earth, easy to talk to, and who says it like it is, straight up. and that's why we achieve so much today. we agreed to push ahead with our efforts to create jobs for our people, by bringing our economies and those of the region even closer together. building on our progress at apec, we're going to keep striving for a seamless regional economy. australia and the united states are helping lead the way to a new model for trade across the asia pacific region. along with our g-20 partners, we agree that we have to stay focused on the growth that creates jobs and every nation needs to play by the same economic rules of the road. as to global partners, we discussed the whole range of challenges where we stand shoulder to shoulder, including afghanistan. obviously this has not been an easy mission for either of our countries, and our hearts go out to the families that were

affected on october 29th. but we both understand what's at stake. what happens when al qaeda has safe havens, we've seen the awful loss of life from 9/11 to bali. so i thank the prime minister for australia's strong commitment to this mission. i salute the extraordinary sacrifices of our forces who serve together, including your australian troops, who have shown that no job is too tough for your diggers. today the prime minister and i reaffirmed the way forward, the transition has begun. afghans are stepping into the lead, as they do, our troops, american and australian will draw down responsibly together. so that we preserve the progress that we've made. and by 2014, afghans will take full responsibility for security in their country. our focus today as the prime minister said was on preparing our alliance for the future. and so i am very pleased that we

are able to make these announcements here together on australian soil. because of these initiatives that are the result of our country's working very closely together as partners, we're going to be in a position to more effectively strengthen the security of both of our nations and this region. as julia described, we are increasing our cooperation. and i'd add america's commitment to this region. our u.s. marines will begin rotating through darwin for joint training and exercises. our air force will rotate additional aircraft through more air fields in northern australia. and these rotations which are going to be taking place on australian bases will bring our militaries even closer and make them even more effective. we'll enhance our ability to train, exercise and operate with allies and partners across the region. and that in turn will allow us to work with these nations to

respond to even faster -- a wide range of challenges, including humanitarian crisis and disaster relief. as well as promoting security cooperation across the region. and this commitment builds upon the best traditions of our alliance. for decades, australians have welcomed our service members as they come here to work, train and exercise together. and i'm looking forward to joining the prime minister in darwin tomorrow to thank our troops, australians and americans for the incredible work that they are doing. finally, as i'll discuss more in my speech to parliament tomorrow, this deepening of our alliance sends a clear message of our commitment to this region, a commitment that is enduring and unwavering, it's a commitment i'll reaffirm in bali as the united states joins the east asia summit. and i want to thank our australian friends who supported our membership so strongly, and worked to make sure the eas addresses regional challenges

that affect all of us, like proliferation and maritime security. so, again, i'm pleased that we're able to make these important announcements during my visit. madam prime minister i thank you for being such a strong partner and a champion of our alliance. once again, i want to thank the australian people for the kindness they showed me about 40 years ago and the kindness they're showing me during my visit today. it's that friendship and sol darety that makes and keeps our alliance one of the strongest in the world. >> we'll take some questions, one from the australian media first. >> phillip hudson from the melbourne herald sun. mr. president, welcome back to australia. >> thank you. >> you outlined a significant u.s. troop buildup. how much of this is because you're worried about the rise of

china? and u.s. marines for the first time will be conducting exercises by themselves on australian soil. why is that and what will they be doing? you also mentioned in your remarks that afghanistan is not an easy mission. in the past few months there have been three cases for australia where our troops have been shot at by the afghan soldiers, they've been training, and sadly four of our soldiers have died and many others injured. australian public opinion is against continuing. you outline the draw down. what do you say to the australian people who don't want to wait, who want to leave immediately? >> well, first with respect to these new initiatives, this rotational deployment is significant because what it allows us to do is to not only build capacity and cooperation between our two countries. but it also allows us to meet the demands of a lot of partners

in the region that want to feel that they're getting the training, they're getting the exercises, and that we had the presence that's necessary to maintain the security architecture in the region. and so as julia mentioned this is a region that's becoming increasingly important. the economy in this area is going to be the engine for world economic growth for some time to come. the lines of commerce and trade are constantly expanding. and it's appropriate then for us to make sure that not oath our alliance but the security architecture of the region is updated for the 21st century, and this initiative is going to allow us to do that. it also allows us to respond to a whole host of challenges like humanitarian or disaster relief.

that frankly, given how large the asia pacific region is, can sometimes be difficult to do and this will allow us to be able to respond in a more timely fashion, and also, equip a lot of countries -- smaller countries who may not have the same capacity, it allows us to equip them so they can respond more quickly as well. and i guess the last part of your question with respect to china, i've said repeatedly, and i will say again today that we welcome a rising peaceful china. what they've been able to achieve in terms of lifting hundreds of millions of people out of poverty over the last two decades has been nothing short of remarkable. and that is good not just for china, but it's potentially good for the region. and i know australia's economy

obviously has benefited by the increased demand you're seeing in china. the main message that i've said not only publicly, but also privately to the chinese is that with their rise comes increased responsibilities. it's important for them to play by the rules of the road. and, in fact, help underwrite the rules that have allowed so much remarkable economic progress to be made over the last several decades. and that's going to be true on a whole host of issues. so where china is playing by those rules, recognizing it's new role, i think this is a win-win situation. there are going to be times where they're not, and we will send a clear message to them that we think that they need to be on track in terms of

accepting the rules and responsibilities that come with being a world power. with respect to afghanistan, you know, the impact of any loss of life among our troops is heartbreaking, and obviously as a friend of the united states, there's no greater responsibility and nothing more difficult than putting our troops in harm's way. i think prime minister gilard feels the same way that i do, which is we would not be sending our young men and women into harm's way unless we thought it was absolutely necessary for the security of our country. what we have established is a transition process that allows afghans to build up their capacity and take on a greater security role over the next two years.

but it's important that we do it right. as some of you are aware, i just announced that all remaining troops in iraq will be removed. it would have been tempting given that i've been opposed to the iraq war from the start when i came into office to say, we're going to get you all out right away. what i recognize was in western not thoughtful in the way we proceed, the enormous sacrifices made by our men and women in the previous years would have been for not. given the enormous investment that's been made, and the signs that we can, in fact, leave behind a country that's not perfect, but one that is more stable, more secure and does not provide safe havens for terrorists, it's appropriate for

us to finish the job and do it right. >> if i could just add to that and say, i met president obama and we talked about our alliance, we talked about our work in afghanistan and in our meetings both formal and informal, the president has shown the greatest possible concern for our troops in the field. the meetings we've had over the last few weeks at various international events have cone sided with some of the most difficult news we've had from afghanistan, and every step of the way the president has gone out of his way to convey to me his condolences for the australian people and particularly the families that have suffered such a grievous loss. >> mr. president, europe is in its toughest hour since world war ii, the markets are showing anxiety about the possibility of instability spreading to france as well?

are you worried that the steps european leaders are taking are too incremental so far? do you think something bolder or a more difficult set of decisions needs to be taken to recompense that crisis. are you concerned the pressures the united states is under at the moment may compromise its ability to sustain the plans for the region, including the initiatives announced today? do you have to take those with a grain of thought until the super committee process is concluded? >> with respect to europe, i'm deeply concerned, have been deeply concerned, i suspect will be deeply concerned tomorrow and next week, and the week after that. until we put in place a concrete

plan and structure that sends a clear signal to the markets that europe is standing behind the euro and will do what it takes we're going to continue to see the kinds of turmoil that we saw in the markets today -- or was it yesterday? i'm trying to figure out what time zone i'm in here. >> it's all of the time. >> we have consulted very closely with our european friends. i think there is a genuine desire on the part of leaders like president sarkozy and chancellor merkel to solve this crisis. but they've got a complicated political structure. the problem right now is a problem of political will, it's not a technical problem. we saw some progress with italy and greece both putting forward

essential unity governments that can implement significant reforms that need to take place in those countries. but at this point the larger european community has to stand behind the european project. and for those american readers or listeners or those australian readers or listeners, i think we all understand at this point we have an integrated world economy. what happens in europe will have an impact on us. so we are going to continue to advise european leaders on what options we think would meet the threshold, where markets would settle down. it is going to require some tough decisions on their part. they've made some progress on some fronts like their efforts to recap tallize the banks. ultimately what they're going to need is a firewall that sends a clear signal, we stand behind the european project and we

stand behind the euro, and those members of the eurozone are going to have the liquidity they need to service their debt. so there's more work to do on that front. i don't want to steal your question, but i want to say with respect to our budget, there's a reason why i'm spending this time in asia and the pacific region. first and foremost, because it's the fastest growing economic region in the world, and i want to create jobs in the united states, which means we have to sell products here. and invest here, and have a robust trading relationship here, and australia happens to be one of our strongest strayeding partners. the second message i'm trying to send is that we are here to stay. this is a region of huge

strategic importance to us. and i've made very clear and i'll amplify in my speech to parliament tomorrow, even as we make a whole host of important fiscal decisions back home. this is right up there at the top of my priority list. and we're going to make sure that we are able to fulfill our leadership role in the asia pacific region. >> i was going to make what i think is the common sense point. i'm not going to issue words of advice about the fiscal position in the united states. but the common sense point from the point of the view of the leader is ultimately budgets are about choices. and they are choices about things you value. by president obama being here, he's saying he values the role of the united states in this region and our alliance and that's what the announcement we've made today is all about. >> we've got a question from

mark riley. >> mr. president, i wanted to ask you about the other rising giant of our region, india. and the prime minister might have some comments. how significant is it for the u.s. that australia is considering sending uranium to india. what encouragement did your administration give to the administration. you're aware that our parliament has passed a new bill a carbon tax if you like, but we're intrigued about where america is going on this issue, and countries like australia don't see a carbon trading system in the world working unless america is a bill of big part of it. is it your wish that america will have an emissions trading scheme across the nation within the next five years or so? how heavily do you want to see america involved in an emissions

trading scheme globally or has this become too politically hard for you? >> first of all, with respect to india, we have not had any influence, i suspect on australia's decision to explore what its relationship in terms of the peaceful use of nuclear energy in india might be. i suspect you have some pretty smart government officials here who figured out that india's a big player. and that the australia, india relationship is one that should be cultivated. so i don't think julia or anybody else needs my advice in figuring that out. this is part of your neighborhood and you are going to make bilateral decisions about how to move forward.

i think without wading into the details, the discussions that are currently taking place here in australia around that relationship and the nuclear issue with india are ones that are compatible with international law. compatible with decisions that were made in the npt. and i will watch with interest what's determined. but this is not something between the united states and australia, this is something between india and australia. with respect to carbon emissi emissions, i share the view of your prime minister. and most scientists in the world, climate change is a real problem. and that human activity is contributing to it. we all have a responsibility to

find ways to reduce our carbon emissions. each country is trying to figure out how to do that most effectively. here in australia under the leadership of the prime minister you moved forward with a bold strategy. in the united states, although we haven't passed a -- what we call a cap and trade system, an exchange, what we have done is taken steps to double fuel efficiency standards on cars, which will have an enormous impact on removing carbon from the atmosphere. we've invested heavily in clean energy research. we believe very strongly that with improved efficiencies and a whole step -- a whole range of steps that we can meet, the commitments that we made in copenhagen and cancun.

and as we move forward over the next several years, my hope is that the united states as one of several countries with a big carbon footprint can find further ways to reduce our carbon emissions. i think that's good for the world. i actually think over the long term it's good for our economies as well. because it's my strong belief that industries, utilities, individual consumers, we're all going to have to adapt. how we use energy and how we think about carbon. now, another belief that the prime minister and i share is that the advanced economies can't do this alone. so part of our insistence when we are in multilateral form.

and i will continue to insist on this when we go to durbin, is that if we are taking a series of steps, then it's important that emerging economies like china and india are also part of the bargain. it doesn't mean that they have to do exactly what we do, we understand that in terms of per capita carbon emissions, they've got a long way to go before they catch up to us, but it does mean they have to take seriously their responsibilities as well. and so, ultimately what we want is a mechanism whereby all countries are making an effort. and it's going to be a tough slog, particularly at a time when the economies are -- a lot

of economies are still struggling. i think it's one that over the long term can be beneficial. >> thank you, mr. president. >> thank you, prime minister gi gillard. i want to double back to the topic of china. it seems there's a bit of schizophrenic activity of this week. china is participating in hawaii and indonesia. but the rest of you are talking about a trade block that excludes china. what is it everyone fears so much from china? and isn't there some risk that you would increase tensions in a

way that would take -- china might take some of the very actions you fear? >> i'm happy to start with you, and that go to the president. i think there's a theme throughout the world that we've been involved in, apex, some of the discussions here and we may be on a journey from saying aloha to g'day or bali-hi or something like that. the strategy remains the same. we want to see china rise. it's our aspiration, we understand it to be the aspiration of the united states. it's something we pursue bilaterally with china. multilaterally in the forums we

work in. the east asia summit will have a particular significance for the first time with the president of the united states there and russia represented around the table. sew all of the players with the right mandate to discuss strategic political and economic questions for our region. so i actually believe there's a continuity here. apex fundamentally focused on trade and economic liberalization, here in australia, long time allies, talking about the future of their alliance. also preparing for a set of discussions in bali, which will bring us together again with our friends across the region. >> just to pick up on this theme, jackie, i think the notion that we fear china is mistaken, the notion that we are

looking to exclude china is mistaken, and i'll take tpp as a perfect example of this. we haven't excluded china from the tpp. what we have said is, the future of this region depends on robust trade and commerce, and the only way we're going to grow that trade is if we have a high standards trade agreement, where everybody's playing by the same rules. where if one set of markets is open, then there's reciprocity among the other trading partners. where there's certain rules that we abide by in terms of intellectual property rights protection or how we deal with government procurement, in addition to the traditional areas like terrorists. and what we saw in honolulu was that a number of countries that weren't part of the initial

discussions, like japan, canada, mexico all expressed an interest in beginning the consultations to be part of this high standard trade agreement that could potentially be a model for the entire region. now, china says, we want to consult with you about being part of this as well. we welcome that. it will require china to rethink some of its approaches to trade. just as every other country that's been involved in the consultations for the tpp have had to think through what kinds of adjustments are we willing to make? and so that's the consistent theme here. this is a growing region. it is a vital region. the united states is going to be

a huge participant in both economic and security issues in the asia pacific region. and our override iing desire is that we have a clear set of principles that all of us can abide by so all of us can succeed. and i think it's going to be important for china to be a part of that. i think it's good for us. but it's going to require china, just like all the rest of us to align our existing policies and what we've done in the past with what's needed for a brighter future. all right? >> thank you very much. >> thank you very much, everybody. >> thank you. >> welcome back, everyone, if you're just tuning in, the

president and prime minister just announced this new agreement to expand the u.s. military presence in australia. they outlined the plan, in which 250 military personnel, that would be u.s. marines and air force would be deployed there by the middle of 2012, and then it would grow to a full force of about 2,500 military personnel down the line. now, they describe this as an expansion that will strengthen its cooperation in the region and it's military presence, everything from responding to natural disasters to security concerns, obviously china being touched on in depth. let's get some analysis right now from chuck todd. chuck, specifically on that china issue, there were a number of questions on how this will be perceived as china growing rapidly, and whether or not they're going to play by the rules and the strong message that the president and prime minister will send if that's not the case. >> that's right, and that has

been the theme of the entire trip, showing more rhetorical confrontation with china, and this is one of the few actions being taken on this trip. everything else has been negotiations about potential trade partnerships. this is a specific action, in this case, having a u.s. military outpost here in australia, will become a permanent outpost with a rotation of troops. this is if the region, this is about the china, the south china sea in particular, and it's something that a lot of the southeast asian democracies are concerned about with china's rising regional military presence, not just as a global economic leader but a regional military power as well, and so they want the united states, in this case, to be somewhat of a counter weight to china in that respect. earlier as i was telling you, this entire trip, whether it's what's coming up when we go to indonesia, or what it was in

hawaii during the asian pacific economic conference. much a change in tone. you know, the first two years of the obama presidency, it was about engaging china, forging partnerships with china. trying to increase trust with china. the last three to six months you've seen a rise in sort of confrontational rhetoric, and now confrontational actions fp and i think what the obama administration would say is friendly competitive actions, nothing that's meant to try to raise tensions, but we'll see how china reacts. >> there was a question that came up about budget issues back at home, the fiscal decisions the president has to make and what this will cost. the president saying, we are here to stay, even as we make a bunch of fiscal decisions at home. this is at the top of my priority list. you obviously being a political guru, how will that play in washington and around the country? >> i think it depends on how much it costs, when it comes to the one thing that it at least

has some acceptance by the american public is spending on defense issues. spending on other issues isn't quite as popular these days. i think the obama administration, they will make the argument that as the draw downs in iraq and afghanistan proceed, some of that savings can be used to rotate some of the money -- move some of that money in the defense department to new projects like this one here in australia. >> there also could be the possibility of the argument being by the president that is, we'll open lines of commerce and trade expanding. there's an interesting tid bit, 5.3 trillion in annual trade. 1.2 trillion of that is u.s. trade, to put it in a little perspective of the growth opportunities there. and the president's ambition to create jobs, to economic growth. do you think that will be a big play in this relationship? >> well, it could be, the obama

administration, president obama is saying one of the pledges he made was to double u.s. skporex in his first term. it was interesting to hear him in his press conference at the end of apec in hawaii, he says that is going to be one of the better things he can better cases he can make about the economic growth in the united states over the last year or so. while it's been somewhat stagnant overall, the export growth has been there. it's all about these rising emerging economies, mostly in the asian pacific region, and especially southeast asia, whether it's indonesia, in india, of course. so that's where they think that

possibly they can secure these trade deals, they can compete with china in these smaller markets. >> chuck, i know you're on a crazy schedule, we appreciate you taking the time to get the perspective on this new agreement. take care. >> we are going to wrap this up, throughout the day, there will be analysis on this agreement, the new agreement to expand u.s. military presence in australia. for now, i'm lynn berry with msnbc. central to their campaign pledge to make sure that 30 million people don't have health insurance. what kind of inspiring message is that. >> welcome back to "hardball." that was the president on october 4th, defending obama care, and warning -- vowing to repeal health care reform isn't necessarily a recipe for winning elections. the highest court in the country will decide on the constitutionality of president obama's signature domestic compliment. and the decision will likely come down in june of next year,

five months before our presidential election. vice provost at the university of pennsylvania, senior fellow for the american progress as well. zeek, thank you very much for joining us. you know, we have a couple simple questions here. one of them is, if the supreme court wipes mandate that makes young people, healthy people, pay some sort of health insurance premium, will that kill the financing structure of the obama bill? >> well, it does what -- it puts it into a debt spiral. plenty of places have tried to have exchanges where people go and buy insurance without a mandate. voluntary. what you end up happening is healthy people don't go in until they get sick and that leads to a death spiral because costs just rise, becomes only the sick get insurance and makes them very unstable. all ten have failed. >> yeah, so it's just like social security. you know, the idea of making it mandatory is so people who don't

feel like saving or can't save are forced to save by taxing them. thereby, they are forced to take responsibility for their retirement years. in this case, you're saying to people, okay, you're young and healthy, nothing's going it hurt you, you think you're bulletproof. someday you're going to be old and someday you'll probably have a health challenge, we can bet on that so you better start ponying up now. isn't that the principle? >> that is the principle. let's remember that the individual mandate, which republicans are now attacking as unconstitutional, was a republican idea. it's not an idea that president obama came up with, himself. i mean, it's an idea that the republicans have been pushing for nearly two decades. >> why did he allow himself to get painted as a lefty, as a socialist? i could make the republican argument for exactly what he did. why should people be free loaders and go to e.r. and live off the premiums other people pay? why don't you make everybody do their share and take responsibility for their own health? if you get run over in a car

somewhere on a highway somewhere, you want somebody to come with an ambulance and you want somebody to take care of you in the hospital. who's going to pay for that? about time you paid for that. that sounds like a republican self-reliant argument. why didn't obama sell it that way? >> chris, it's a bipartisan argument. everyone believes we should be responsible and do what we can. that's the heart and soul of the individual mandate and all a system when we share in contributing to insurance pool, knowing over the course of our lifetime we will use that insurance and use health care. it's an argument that everyone can share in. and the republicans raised it and have this very good idea, and the democrats put it into action and once they put it into action, they're calling foul. >> well, zeke, here's the bad news. the family foundation's health tracking poll shows 51% view the health reform bill unfavorfully, 34% favorably. has this been bad pr, the public is against a public mandate?

what caused the numbers to go the wrong direction for the president and you? >> after every piece of major legislation in american history, you have a period of turmoil where people aren't sure, people are upset about it. that was true after social security, true after medicare and medicaid. as they get experience with the law, i think they're going to find it much more beneficial and support is going to grow. that's what's actually happened in massachusetts. support in massachusetts for their mandate has grown over time. i will say we have a very good bill. it's not perfect, but it's very good. i do think the administration hasn't done a great job of getting out the message about why it's important. millions of people have already benefited. seniors who've had some of their drug costs defrayed. a million young people who've been able to go on to their parents' health insurance plan. this is even before the big changes in the health care reform bill go into place. in my view, the right time scale for assessing this health care

reform is going to be a decade. by 2020, are we going to have a better health system? >> if we still have the program by then. the two best arguments are keeping your young adult children under your health care before they got themselves organized in life which everybody who's a parent understands. i have three kids in their 20s. the other one, you can't deal with pre-existing conditions protections unless everybody kicks in. >> recollect. >> that's how you sell it. take the good stuff and sell the other stuff with it. thank you, ezekiel emanuel for being on the program. when we return, two problems facing the presidential election campaign. wait until you hear what's wrong with the republicans. with such a clown show going on. you're watching "hardball" only on msnbc.

let me finish tonight with this. the utter confusion in the republican presidential nominating process results from two discernible facts. one they hate. that's the simplest explanation of the disastrous course of this selection process. they hate so much they are not in the mood to fall in love with a candidate or even falling behind someone. their brains racked as they are by hatred, they lack the like mode. they are in no mood looking around for a politician they like. the hating is so much more satisfying. the second factor. they don't respect experience. one after another the candidates on the right have stepped forward. each has had his or her time in the limelight yet out there in the audition stage, one after another, has showed they don't have the stuff.

embarrassed by the exposure, they have shrunk back into the shadows, and so the republicans have a problem. they are consumed by hate, so consumed they can't think positively of whom they may want to lead them. they just can't change the subject from opposition to government, and they can't get over the fact that to govern this country requires some experience in government, some knowledge of how you lead a government. i'm reminded often these days of how superior the competition was once for the american presidency. say what you will about richard nixon when he and jack kennedy debated back in 1960. the american people were proud of what they were watching. they were proud of the choice they would have to make and were allowed to make. what the heck has happened to our country we're now being asked to consider the presidential credentials of political walkons like rick perry, herman cain, michele bachmann? the best question the next moderator could ask looms. are you people serious? is the republican party serious? are we really going to get down for the entire season of the presidential selection of the