getting close now. the big, january political fights. let's play "hardball." i'm chris matthews in washington. leading off tonight, we have caucuses coming in january. we're going to look at them like a big ncaa tournament. iowa, new hampshire, south carolina and florida. who has to win and where. can michele bachmann win? for mitt, it may be win or go

home. the win or go home january races. next, president obama's chances of beating the gop nominee? historically, how have other president's done with approval ratings one year out? it's where he is. we'll look at potential running mates. could we see a gingrich/cain ticket. would president obama dump joe biden for hillary clinton if things look bad? an independent candidate would surely throw the election from one side to the other. a third candidate will be on the ballot in all 50 states. finally, amateur hour. we'll go for the campaign low lights so far. there are a lot of them, as you know. we start with january madness. david and cynthia.

john heilemann, national political columnist. first, of course, the iowa caucuses january 3rd. romney is making a push in the hawk eye state. he's planning to win the iowa caucuses. commercials are on the way and volunteers are arriving. let's go to david on that. is this going to happen. get to him. >> he's entering, taking out ads. he opened a campaign office. he's trying to have it both ways. he wants to compete, do well. >> why is he doing this? why not take a breather. he's not a cultural conservative. he's questionable on abortion rights and marriage. >> get an early strike. there's no non-romney candidate that's come together that can survive scrutiny. it's a pack of circus clowns.

>> i've noticed that. does he have to win out there to win? is it really win or lose for him? >> in iowa, i don't think anybody expects mitt romney to win in iowa. he's not conservative enough for the people who vote. it doesn't hurt him at all. it shows that he is paying attention to social conservatives. he doesn't want to start off looking as if i'm ignoring you and i need you. if he places second, it gives him a little bit of momentum. >> how far badly does he have to do to hurt him. suppose he pulls a fourth out there, john? >> i think actually once they decided to go in, they raised the bar very high toward having to win. look, i think you are the front-runner in the race, you have sat out on the iowa sidelines the entire year and

tried to convey to the people you are not going to compete there. because the field is split, you have a chance to win that state, win new hampshire and put this away quickly. if you go out as the front-runner, i think the national media narrative is going to become is mitt romney making the same mistakes as 2008? i think he's raised the bar very high for himself. it's going to be hard to lower expectations the way they can. >> we can win. he doesn't take chances. the national media that leads to the left, i could argue, could smash him. >> they know that iowa is different. you know, we have seen in the past. also, don't forget there's a general election. iowa may be a swing state. i need the same voters to come out. >> who has to win out there or leave the race? >> listen, i think -- >> if bachmann or santorum

loses, should they be in the race? >> santorum peters out if he doesn't do well. newt gin rich has a noncampaign campaign. >> bachmann and santorum, one of the two have to win. >> rick perry. for heaven's sake. he's claimed he has money, organization in iowa and retail politics will make the difference for him. forget how he's done -- >> he won't be able to compete in south carolina if he loses in iowa? >> he can still play there. i think supporters start dwindling faster. >> let's start with the bottom here. bachman and santorum, if they can't win there, where can they win? >> nowhere. i think they may try to continue campaigning, but their campaigns will be the walking dead at that point. rick perry, if he finishes

strong in iowa and hopes to hold south carolina, he would be alive. >> is that right or wrong? >> yes. >> let's go to new hampshire. this is a hot one. hillary clinton came back from the democratic side and won there. here is the latest bloomburg poll. romney holds 40%. most of his opponents are way down in single, if not double. other polls show a closer race between romney and gingrich. does he have to win? >> he has to win new hampshire. >> or else what? >> he can still stay in the race. this is the thing, we can try -- the media can try to drive him out of the race. he'll still have money. it's unclear. the one surprise in new hampshire might be, i hate to say it, ron paul. new hampshire is moving more

libertarian direction. >> let me ask you, does huntsman have to win there to be in this race? >> he has to come in second. >> who gets wiped out? bachmann is out if she can't win iowa. santorum is out. if huntsman can't win where he says he can, he loses. >> huntsman isn't going anywhere anyway. if he wins new hampshire, we are talking an entirely new dynamic in the race. >> let me go to john. john, what do you think? let's talk about the moderates, romney and huntsman. one will probably win there. it's probably romney. what if that doesn't happen? >> if somehow he wins iowa and somehow new hampshire does what it does often and hands new hampshire someone other than romney, i think he could still survive that. if he loses in iowa, doesn't come in first and loses new hampshire, he will be crippled

and won't be able to be the nominee. jon huntsman needs to win for the reasons you said. it's possible a very, very strong second comes into play. >> let's go south with you, john. south carolina has been the king maker since the party went south and became a southern based party. who has to win there? it seems to be perry and cain have to do well among the baptists. >> neither one of them is going to be competitive in new hampshire. for both of them, south carolina, they are regional based candidacies. if you can't win the southern primary and you are going to win based on regional strength you are in trouble. romney looks good in florida which is coming up after that. >> does everybody agree perry and cain are more conservative konds? >> if perry makes it that far.

if romney doesn't happen to win in new hampshire, i don't think it drives him from the race because the field is so weak. you can say it should in normal circumstances, but who is there to pick it up? nobody. >> who has to win in south carolina? >> again, rick perry. he is the one who has raised enough money to try to persuade people he is a serious candidate. if he doesn't win south carolina, he's done. >> going back to ronald reagan back in 1980, south carolina picked the events for republica this up. i think, does everybody agree you have to win something? can you be in this race if you haven't won anything? if you haven't won anything, are you a contender? >> you must win to survive. the race is fractured in a lot of ways. people will continue to stagger

on. the question of who picks up the pieces is who wins in iowa and new hampshire. >> we go to florida, i think there's two people to get to florida. they don't have to win anything. romney and newt gingrich. florida cannot be the one for romney to prove he can win. this is the first national state, representative state of all we have talked about. is that the one that decides this thing, florida. the guy or woman who win there is is the key front winner? >> if romney doesn't win florida and rick perry has not had a miraculous revitalization, it's known in the field. >> you see an intervention? >> i see an intervention. >> i love this. does florida make or break having a front-runner?

>> it is a big pile of delegates, that's true. if romney lost new hampshire, i don't see how florida helps him very much. assume he's won new hampshire and florida, he's looking good. >> what about the intervention thing? the party says we are not getting anything done here? >> if they have three or four different winners by the time they get to florida, yes, there's going to be a lot of angst among the establishment. >> john heilemann, do you think there could be intervention? >> unless herman cain is about to be nominated, the answer is no. >> everyone stay with us. coming up, we are going to talk about the president of the united states, barack obama. what are his chances of winning? where does the president stand right now and how does he stand-up to past presidents with approval ratings like he has now in the 40s. act my age?

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welcome back to "hardball." now we want to compare president obama's approval rating one year away from election day from past presidents. we want to look at the unemployment rate. what does the past tell us about president obama's future? i love this stuff, obviously. our panel joins us again. president obama's weekly approval rating average, gallup poll is 43%. remember that number. that number has been on the rise. let's look at how obama compared

to past president's in november of their third year of office. george w. bush 52%. he won re-election. bill clinton was 53% and rising, too. he won re-election. george bush 41 was 55% but dropping. ronald reagan, 53% and rising, he won. jimmy carter was 40% and rising. he got a spike in popularity when americans were taken hostage in iran. his rating was back in the 30s after that and lost re-election. nixson was 49%. he won re-election. what do you see there? >> not only is his approval rating closest to jimmy carter, which republicans are good at pointing out, carter was a one-term president. one of the most telling things,

you mentioned an episode which greatly affected his re-election chances, the taking of hostages in iran. we have no idea who is going to happen with the euro and european union. >> nothing good. a wonderful saren dipty going on there. >> it will greatly affect the economy here in the united states. it could have a big effect on obama's re-election chances and bring his approval numbers back down again. >> should he say we found the real bin laden? john heilemann, looking at you, you write historical books now like teddy white did. look at the pattern, mid-40s. kind of gaining. it's not fair to say obama is getting better off. he's inching up a little. how do you read that in terms of history? one of the most obvious, but

most important historical points, incumbent presidents get what the approval rating is in the vote. we have a good idea of what we think of presidents and we track it closely. president obama is on track to win 43% of the popular vote. it's far from what it takes to win. the second thing that is true is the trajectory question is what matters most of all. this period of time, in the fall and winter leading into an incumbent re-election tells you what is going to happen. if you can get the polls moving in the right direction, if you are headed in the right direction now, you can be sure you are going to get reelected. if you are stagnant or dropping from a low point, you have a lot of problems. that's where the president is in trouble. >> john, you have to stick with you. you said the president's number is a number. then you said the next several months are critical. say he beats mitt romney, the

front-runn front-runner, reportedly in the head with a frying pan. it's negative, negative, negative. bang, bang, bang, bang. is he still at 43% even though the other guy looks worse? >> george w. bush's ratings were worse. you get reflected approval rating bump from seeing your opponent, matching your opponent and making it unacceptable. it's hard to do that starting at 43. you can move the numbers. if you are 47 or 48, you can creep over 50. hard to get from 43 to 51. >> that's what i'm worried about. that's what opens up the third party. obama can beat the heck out of whoever is the nominee. >> whatever obama does, if he win as year from now, it will be historic based on the numbers we see. he has to use the frying pan again and again.

turn it into a choice election. i's me and the other guy. usually incumbents are referendums. they want to keep the guy there. >> the dodd voting and looking for a third -- free will and free choice. free choice you are limiting your options. that's why i like free will. there are things you can do besides having sex, if you can. how about free will? free will? >> obama has to worry about the enthusiasm gap. he did extremely well under young voters. this time a lot of young voters don't have the enthusiasm. >> what happens if he's stuck at 43 and beats the brains out of whoever runs again? what happens to the vote? does he stay home? >> we have to see who voters are most scared of. are they most scared of obama? >> can you imagine 22-year-old kid, african-american or white,

whatever, a regular 22-year-old, you are telling the kid he's not always going to vote. you have to get out and vote against mitt romney. does that work? >> i don't think it works for that 22-year-old. >> up next, herman cain on libya and bachmann and rick perry's oops. it's the campaign low lights. here they come again. you are watching "hardball" on mnsz. [ male announcer ] indulge all you want. now there's no need to hold back.

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back to "hardball." ready for a look back? it's over a month before the first votes are cast. one thing is underway for the 2012 campaign season. the republican clown show, i have been calling it. we have a special highlight or low light real with the moments leaving us thinking did i hear

that correctly? watch and remember. >> our founding fathers never meant for washington, d.c., to be the found of all wisdom. we fought the revolution in the 16th century. >> okay. libya. >> you own between $250,500 million to a jewelry country. what is that about? >> obeying the law. >> i love new hampshire. what we have in common is our extreme love for liberty. you are the state where the shot was heard around the world. >> president obama supported the uprising, correct? >> i would do away with the education, the -- >> corporations are people, my friend. >> i do not agree with the way he handled it for the following reason. >> commerce and let's see, i

can't. the third one, i can't. sorry. >> nope, that's a different one. >> we know there was slavery that was still tolerated when the nation began. we also know the very founders that wrote those documents worked tirelessly until slavery was no more in the united states. >> $500,000 to a jewelry store at one point? >> any ad which quotes what i said on sunday is a falsehood. >> i'm not sure what you mean by neoconservative. >> $500,000 worth of jewelry on credit. >> talk to tiffany's. >> men like john quincy adams who would not rest. >> all this stuff twirling around in my head. >> i haven't had a gaffe or something that caused me to fall in the polls. >> we need a leader, not a

reader. >> oops. >> there's a stocking stuffer. who is the real winner? they are laughing in the white house. he's living there for five years because of that clown show. chil, and while it doesn't travel by sleigh or reindeer, it does get around... in fact, every year duracell sends loads of batteries to the mattel children's hospital, u.c.l.a. of course, children here and everywhere don't really think about which battery makes their toy run... but, still... you'd never want to disappoint. duracell. trusted everywhere.