angle into elites, people in high places now, who are letting us down. thanks, as always, my friend, for coming by and sharing your insights. that does it for us today. i'm matt miller. "hardball" is up starting right now. cain and romney, worst week ever. let's play some "hardball." good evening. i'm michael smerconish in tonight for chris matthews who's in portsmouth, new hampshire, talking about his book, "jack kennedy: elusive hero." first off, cain to make a major announcement tomorrow, or maybe not. when a candidate says he's going to make a major announcement, it usually means one thing, he's getting out. but for cain, who knows. for cain and mitt romney who fumbled an interview with the home team at fox and saw his

poll numbers plummet, three words -- worst week ever. meanwhile, the guy who benefits from all the dead and dying flies around him is newt gingrich. he's confidently predicting he'll be the republican nominee. but he's also taking heat for saying that poor kids don't know the meaning of hard work. that's a dog whistle that isn't too hard to hear. what's next in this crazy republican race? donald trump hosting a debate? oh, wait a minute, that's just happened. it's scheduled for december 27th. seriously, this is not the "hardball sideshow" yet. it's really happening. plus, at least he showed up at the right studio. rick perry went on leno last night to make fun of his own campaign missteps. lots of material to work with. and let me finish with the travel circle this gop race has become. we start with herman cain and his big announcement tomorrow. howard fineman is "the huffington post" editorial director and chris cillizza is editor of postpolitics.com. both are msnbc political analysts.

gentleman, earlier this afternoon, herman cain said he was going to make this big announcement tomorrow. let's all listen. >> i am reassessing because of all of this media firestorm stuff. why, because my wife and family comes first. i got to take that into consideration. tomorrow in atlanta, i will be making an announcement, but nobody's going to get me to make that prematurely. that's all there is to that. so tomorrow we're going to be opening our headquarters in northwest georgia, where we will also clarify, there's that word again, clarify, exactly what the next steps are. >> chris slizcillizza, do you schedule a big announcement to say, hey, guess what, i'm staying in this race? >> no, michael, not usually. but i'll harken back to earlier this week, where his campaign, herman cain's campaign said he was going to clarify in dayton, ohio, in a speech in dayton,

ohio, he was going to clarify what reassessing his candidacy meant. i tuned in, listened to the whole speech. he gave his totally standard stump speech. he never mentioned reassessing the campaign. he sounded like he was just another candidate. so you never know. it seems hard to believe this isn't a i'm staying in or getting out at this point. but can i just quickly, because it bugs me. herman cain said in that clip you just played, "this media firestorm" is why he's reassessing his campaign. no, that's not why. it's allegations of sexual harassment and allegations of a affair. the media reported on those things. we did not do those things. >> i find it remarkable that it's infidelity, alleged that might drive him from the race, when alleged sexual harassment didn't. i would have reversed the importance of the two. not to downplay infidelity, but

infidelity is matter among spouses. it seems to me that sexual harassment, which is a civil wrong, if it's true, is the public's business. do i have it mixed up? >> well, you may have the dynamics of the herman cain family mixed up. because i think herman cain's big audience right now is not the voters in iowa, new hampshire, south carolina, it's his wife. and his family. and i think that's what he's talking about. the way i read it, lynn wood, the atlanta-based high-powered attorney who has been advising herman cain for the last several weeks made it very clear earlier in the week, i thought, that if he had his druthers, he'd just assume that herman cain would get out of the race. for whatever reason. for whatever it is that lynn wood knows. herman cain said otherwise. mark block, his campaign chairman, said otherwise. who knows what herman cain is going to do. but if he's going to be opening a new campaign office in

northwest -- in northwest georgia on the same day that he's announcing that he's getting out of the race, then that's going to be a very short opening of an office in northwest georgia. >> mine is just an editorial statement about how individuals on the right poo pooed claims of sexual harassment. that was not considered any kind of a big deal. alleged fanny pinching at the office. but the minute it's infidelity, we've got to abandon ship and go where. >> michael, i would add to that, though, i think it's the totality of it, you know? i think when it first came out, herman cain denied it. he said, there's nothing to it. it was a he said versus a she said. then as the weight of it wasn't one woman, it wasn't two women, it wasn't three women, it was four women, and then on top of the allegations of the extramarital affair. i think the totality, the context of it is why you're seeing it kind of impact him more now than it might have been before. >> well, chris, i think it's that. i think i also think that this latest female passes the smell

test p test. i mean, that's just my opinion. you look at her, and to me, at least, she's got an air of credibility about her. and yesterday with at a meeting with the new hampshire union leader, herman cain admitted his wife did not know about his most recent accuser, ginger white, but later in an interviewer with lawrence o'donnell, o'donnell couldn't believe that his wife didn't know about it. >> my wife didn't know about it. that was the revelation and the surprise that my wife found out about it. if she had been just another man that i had helped, it probably wouldn't have raised as much suspicion. but my wife is comfortable with the explanation they told her regarding, you know, having to help her. >> i would be surprised if she is surprised by this, honestly speaking. i would be surprised. i am deeply, deeply sorry if i have caused any hurt to her, to his kids, to his family.

>> howard, he's certainly been consistent. i mean, he's denied, denied, denied, even to the point of saying that he helped this woman because of a charitable instinct. but yet didn't tell his wife about his good deeds. >> yeah, well, i just think that as chris said, that the totality of the circumstances of the life of herman cain is what's the problem here. beyond that, he's just handled everything so clumsily, that even republicans who might have been drawn to his campaign because they thought he was an effective businessman can't think of him as an effective politician. just to take one example. he blew off the union leader editorial board three weeks ago, refused to meet with them. then they end up last week endorsing newt gingrich, which means they're in hook, line, and sinker with newt gingrich. then herman cain, after this latest story comes out, decides to meet with the editorial board

of the union leader, whom they'd already decided who they were going to support. it's just another example of how poorly he's run the campaign. the other thing is, when you're a mystery man. when you're known as -- you come out of nowhere, really, and that's what herman cain did. he's been on the fringes of politics for years. and suddenly you're introduced to the american people, everything is a case of first impression. and the first impression that people have of herman cain, 9-9-9, notwithstanding, is a guy who sort of gets around town in ways that are hard to explain. and that's killing his campaign. >> chris cillizza, allow me to show you this new ad. the group, americans for herman cain released an ad in support of the candidate this week. take a look at this one. >> it's time for the truth. the media won't tell you what one of the foremost lie detector experts in america said about herman cain. >> in my exam, he is being truthful, but the allegations of saying that she's been sexually assaulted by him did not occur. >> now that you know the truth, let's focus on what matters. herman cain is a reagan

conservative who can beat obama. his 9-9-9 plan is easy to understand, can create jobs, and will get america working again. >> that doesn't sound like a commercial from somebody who is getting out of the race. i think it's a guy who can look at his laptop and see different color codes and see if somebody's lying. >> and the cain campaign themselves, not just the super pac, the cain campaign themselves put out a new ad in iowa. i think herman cain at this point is almost a totally independent operator. that his campaign is trying to carry on as though nothing else is different, but you have herman cain kind of out there saying, yes, we're reassessing, yes, this has taken a toll on my wife, yes, i have to go talk to her face-to-face. i'm not sure that herman cain and the herman cain campaign are in that close of quarters. i don't know how else to explain -- howard points this out. i don't know how else to explain the incredibly fumbled messaging. one minute he's in it to win it. the next minh he's reassessing,

and then he's in it to win it, and back to reassessing. >> we'll find out tomorrow. let's shift gears to mitt romney. mark halperin had a great list of difficulties mitt romney has sustained over the past week. his tv ad that distorted the old quote from president obama. the testy interview with brett bay bear on fox news. the union leader endorsement of newt gingrich over romney in new hampshire. a media showing at the a republican debate. and there's this new "time" magazine cover with an imagine of romney and the headline, "why don't they like me?" >> on the last point, that was the editor's decision to ask that question on the cover of "time" magazine. i wouldn't count that one. and the other ones individually might not have been seen as catastrophic, it's just that there's no juice in the romney campaign. and everything that might have been considered a minor matter,

all taken together, provide a damning portrait at exactly the wrong time. this is the time where you need to be focusing. where you need to have churn in your campaign. you need to be out there, you need to be locking people up. you need to be getting people excited about going out to organize in iowa and new hampshire. none of that is happening with romney because he has no momentum and really hasn't had any for months and months and months. and now it seems there is a chief opponent to him, who's sitting there almost smirking and saying -- newt gingrich said the other day, i'm going to be the nominee, daring people to attack him. and that's the position that mitt romney finds himself in right now. >> i think something's changed, howard. despite the vast number of debates we've had so far, they generally play nice with one another. now the gloves are coming off. let me show you a devastating commercial that was launched by the huntsman campaign. it's a web commercial they just

put out with two minutes worth of flip-flops. here's just a portion of it. >> you have been on both sides of some issues. and there's videotape of you going back years speaking about different issues, climate change, abortion, immigration, gay rights. how can voters trust what they hear from you today is what you will believe if you win the white house? >> well, brett, your list just not accurate. so one, we're going to have to be better informed about my views on issues. >> different issues, climate change -- >> i believe based on what i read that the world is getting warmer, and number two, i believe that humans contribute to that. >> that we don't know what's causing climate change on this planet. >> abortion -- >> i believe that abortion should be safe and legal in this country. >> that i have consistently been pro-life. >> chris, even if it doesn't take its toll in the primary, you wonder if it's going to sere an image for the general election. is that the real risk here? >> i do think it is.

and remember, michael, the democratic national committee went up with ads earlier this week, mitt versus mitt, exact same narrative, exact same story line. i would say huntsman, at this point, is newt gingrich's best friend. huntsman, people dismiss him, but he's personally wealthy and has a super pac that has already spented is.5 million for him in new hampshire. if huntsman can slow or bring romney -- romney is still a very good front-runner in new hampshire. if huntsman can bring romney down in new hampshire, gingrich wins iowa, gets the momentum coming out of there, then we're talking about a whole different ball game. so hundredsman, i still think, can be a factor. and we know for a fact, never overlook this, there is personal elm anity. >> huntsman is the only one that hasn't caught a wave in this. i still don't rule out that it could settle on him. >> i saw that ad and i said,

geez, huntsman's going to get his 15 minutes. it's about to him. >> his may be sustaining. it could be 30. >> thank you, howard fineman and chris cillizza. up next, the latest from newt gingrich. poor kids have no work habits because no one around them works, or so he says. there's a dog whistle for the right. you're watching "hardball," only on msnbc. hi, i'm cashing in my points... peggy? no more points - coupons now. coupons? coupons. coupons? next, you convert coupons to tokens. tokens? then you trade tokens for credits. and then i get the cash? then you call back. bye bye. peggy? hello? what just happened? want rewards that make sense? switch to discover. america's #1 cash rewards program. it pays to discover. your core competency is...competency. and you...rent from national. because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle...and go. you can even take a full-size or above,

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welcome back to "hardball." the new front-runner in the polls for the republican nomination, newt gingrich, has some interesting position on child labor laws. he's called them, quote, truly stupid, and he suggested that students could replace janitors

in schools. yesterday he was asked about those comments and he doubled down, saying poor kids have no work habits because nobody around them works. it's not the first time that he's demonized the poor for political gain. we're going to get into that in just a moment. also, gingrich is leading in the polls, but does that mean he's the definitive nominee? he seems to think so. and that's what he said to abc news. it's not the first example of his ego that has been out on the campaign trail. is he just too confident? michelle bernard is the president of the bernard center for women politics and public policy and an msnbc political analyst. steve kornacki covers politics for salon.com. here's what newt gingrich said last night, in iowa, about poor children. let's watch. >> really poor children, in really poor neighborhoods have no habits of working, and have nobody around them who works. so they literally -- they have no habit of showing up on monday. they have no habit of staying all day. they have no habit of, i do this

and you give me cash, unless it's illegal. what if you paid them part-time in the afternoon to sit at the clerical office and greet people when they came in? what if you paid them to work as the assistant librarian? what if -- and i pay them as early as is reasonable and is practical. >> michelle, this is a big subject of conversation in my lily white suburban household, okay? because i am forever telling our three sons about the jobs, everything from mcdonald's to delivering flowers to painting street address numbers on curbs. i did it all. i did magic acts when i was 12 years old. why wasn't the message for all children? because i think we've all gotten off track in this regard. >> you know, i don't understand the reason why newt made the statement the way he did. it's a very, very important and powerful message for all parents, for all children. i think newt being newt, though, i think that he made -- what he was trying to do, i think he made a very inarticulate statement about what he was trying to say.

maybe this was an opportunity for him or he saw it as an opportunity to try to reach out to the poor, reach out to a different demographic, and talk about helping communities rise up and helping children achieve. and he said it in a very inarticulate way, that looked a lot more negative than i think his intent probably was. >> i'm going to ask you both, but i'll start, michelle, with you. was it a dog whistle? was this coded? was it intended to appeal to his base? >> you know, i'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt, michael. i think he made a very inarticulate statement. i know people will say, he was trying to go after the most racist, horrible motives of the far right, but i don't think so. this is somebody who, i think, was trying to make a statement about pulling yourself up from your bootstraps, having good role models. i mean, if you actually take an honest look at poverty and look at some of the toughest, most impoverished neighborhoods in the country, there are children that are sorely lacking in role models, whether it's education, whether it's working. whether it's families staying together. but he could have found a much

more positive way to make that statement. >> steve kornacki, a dog whistle? what did you hear when you heard that? >> i heard a bit of two things. i heard a dog whistle, but i also heard a very ill conceived temperate attempt at blowing a dog whistle. there's an artful way of doing that if you're a skilled politician. i think it gets to two issues about romney. the dog whistle aspect is pretty simple. you know, part of the sort of core of the conservative message these days is telling a lot of suburbanites, is telling people who perceive themselves as taxpayers who are under siege that their taxes are so high because the government is taking their money and wasting it on poor, lazy, undeserving people. so i think the message was sort of designed to reach those people and say, hey, i get it. i get that your tax dollars are being wasted and this is what it's being wasted on. people who don't understand what work is. it's ill conceived and gets to a real problem with gingrich, which is his tendency to fly off the handle and make inflammatory comments that cause him a lot of

trouble and don't necessarily have their intended affect. if you think back to the last time newt gingrich was really as big as a national player as he was at this moment, it's when he was house speaker. this is the sort of thing that defined his 3 1/2, 4 years as house speaker. he would make statements that would totally blow his party off message for days, for weeks, even for months. i remember when the republicans won in 1994, within about a week of that election, the entire conversation was about orphanages, because gingrich had said -- >> i wanted to show that to you. i wanted to point out, he has a history when it comes to controversial comments about the poor. it was 1994. he advocated that states stop giving money to poor single mothers, instead use the saved money to send to orphanages. hillary clinton, the first lady at the time, called the comment unimaginable and absurd. he responded by referencing the 1938 movie that romanticized

orphanages. watch. >> i'd ask her to go to blockbuster and rent the mickey rooney movie about boy's town. my answer to her in part is, you know, the little 4-year-old who was thrown off the balcony in chicago would have been a heck of a lot better off at boy's town. that the 11-year-old who was killed after he killed a 14-year-old might have had a chance to live in a supervised boarding school. that the children you see in d.c. killed every weekend might be better off in a group home or a foster home. >> michelle, when you put it now in the context of what he said back in the mid-90s, does it make this most recent remark more palatable or less? >> you know, quite honestly, i feel completely numb about it, because i understand -- it's inflammatory, it's crazy, i was actually looking at it thinking, what on earth could he be thinking about, but here's the thing, michael. if you dig deeper, think about all of the candidates who are running for president. think about everyone who's running for office, whether they are democrats or republicans.

we constantly hear about the problems of the job creators. we constantly hear about how important it is to have a middle class. there are no politicians who are willing to talk about what we do to help the least among us. and i'm not saying that newt gingrich is doing that, but he's the only candidate that we hear at least trying to touch on the topic of poverty and maybe, maybe all of the candidates will look at this as a way to reach out to a different demographic and honestly talk about some of the biggest problems facing the country, rather than only focusing on the economic woes of people who are actually getting by. >> with being the front-runner, you know, the gloves now come off. mitt romney appeared on "fox and friends" this morning and took a couple of swings at newt, beginning with the assertion that the odds were high he would be the current nominee given his lead in the polls. >> self-gran dizing po statement abts polls are not going to win elections. i think if america feels that we need someone who's lived in washington for the last 40 years

to lead the country, he's a good choice. this is not a matter of america needs better lobbyers or insiders, i think america needs a leader. >> steve, the pitch in part is he's the insider, he's the guy who's been there for 40 years. i'm a business man, but the big picture takeaway is these two are duking it out. >> right, absolutely. the businessman who's really been in politics for at least 17 years now. but i think the strategy for romney here really is pretty simple. it's wait for newt gingrich to do what every other flavor of the month on the republican side has done this year. and that is peak and melt down. he's got about a month to make it happen, or to have newt gingrich himself make it happen. if you look at newt's history, like i'm saying with all of the intemperate statements and he has lots of self-destructive tendencies. there's sort of good reason to think that he eventually will. and the silver lining for mitt in all of this terrible polling news this week is this is the first time i've seen, if you look closely at these polls, it's the first time this year if you look at gingrich's voters and ask them who their second choice is, if they're not going to back gingrich, it's romney.

when you look at the other guys who have risen up in the course of the year, whether it's rick perry or herman cain for a while, when you ask the second choice question then, it's not romney. it seems the republican voters have cycled through all the other different options, kind of given up on them, came to the realization, if it's not newt, you might as well go with mitt. >> 30 days in this context is an eternity. we could have never had predicted this. if we had have written this script, we would say, it's too preposterous and wouldn't even sell it as a novel. thank you. rick perry is making no time making sure he can laugh at his campaign blunders. the latest example of that is coming up in the sideshow. you're watching "hardball," only on msnbc. b;b;b;b;b;b;b;b;x@zx one more gift...

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them, join them, right? that seems to be the game plan for gop candidate and consistent fact flubber, rick perry. we can't forget perry's epic brain freeze in a debate, but if you need a reminder, you can count on none other than rick perry to come through for you. take a look at this new ad from the perry campaign and you'll see what i'm talking about. >> commerce, education, and the, um -- what's the third one there? >> department of energy. you know, we've all lost our train of thought before, but not many have done it on national tv. if you want a slick debater, i'm obviously not your guy. but you want a clean house in washington with a balanced budget amendment, a flat tax, and a part-time congress, i'm your man. i'm rick perry at -- what's that line again? i'm rick perry and i approve of this message. >> i like it. i think it's a good strategy. and if you're still not convinced that perry can poke fun at his own gaffe, there's always the late-night comedians to help him out, right? let's watch rick perry making light of it all on "the tonight

show" last night. >> thanks for coming. you provides us with a lot of material, so i appreciate you being here. >> it's what i do. >> what happened with the brain freeze that night, with the -- you had the three things to remember. >> well, you know, one, two, and, uh, uh -- every now and then, i call my dogs by the wrong name. >> what happened in new hampshire here? >> those of you that will be 21 by november the 12th, i ask for your support and your vote. >> i was thinking drinking age, maybe. >> drinking age, drinking age. okay, all right. that makes sense. but how about -- >> you got to have an excuse, right? so that's mine, and i'm sticking to it. >> and of course, if that doesn't work, he can always give a go michele bachmann style. remember how she confronted the campaign blunders a couple of weeks ago? >> i haven't had a gaffe or something that i've done that has caused me to fall in the polls. >> there it is. just deny everything, although i think the poll numbers speak for themselves. neither strategy seems to be

working. up next, vacation veto. president obama teamed with bill clinton to promote job creation through energy-efficient building projects. and don't think that the president missed an opportunity to nudge congress to pass at least parts of his jobs bill. let's listen. >> we're going to keep pushing congress to make this happen. now's not the time to slam the brakes on the recovery. right now it's time to step on the gas. we need to get this done. and i expect that it's going to get done before congress leaves. otherwise, congress may not be leaving. and we can all spend christmas here together. >> somehow, i don't think that was an invitation to christmas at the white house. up next, just call it the gop reality tv debate. none other than donald trump will moderate a presidential debate in des moines on december 27th. will he tell each candidate at the end of the evening, you're fired? you're watching "hardball," only on msnbc. all because so many people came to louisiana... they came to see us in florida...

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i'm jane wells with your cnbc market wrap. the bulls started out in full charge, but fizzled at the finish. fractional moves lower for the dow and the s&p. a slightish gain for the nasdaq. flat for the day, maybe, but we're wrapping up the market's best week in more than two years with gains of at least 7% on the big three. but today's jobs report, in one word, uninspiring. job creation remained weak in november with only 120,000 jobs created. but a drop in the number of people out looking for work brought the unemployment rate down to 8.6%. earlier, stocks got a boost on word that the european central bank could end up lending more than a quarter of a trillion dollars to the imf to help ease the global credit crunch. and a couple of stocks to tell you about. tax preparer h&r block slumped on a surge in claims against its now closed subprime mortgage unit. and big lots skidded after its

lost lots because new acquisitions in canada dragged profits lower. oh, canada. that's it from cnbc, first in business worldwide. now back to "hardball." welcome back to "hardball." one week before the iowa caucus, donald trump will moderate a republican debate. news max sent an invitation to candidates that begins, "we are pleased to cardially invite you to the news max ion television 2012 presidential debate moderated by a truly great american, mr. donald j. trump." let's tick through the candidates who have already visited donald trump to get a blessing on their campaigns. first was rick perry, who met with trump on september 14. next was herman cain on october 3rd.

michele bachmann visited october 13rd. mitt romney snuck in and out of without being on any cameras. on monday, newt gingrich will meet with donald trump. richard wolffe is an msnbc contributor. i get the feeling that trump decided to send this out, notify the media and then see what happens. >> i guess news max couldn't find ryan seacrest's schedule. the idea that the word "moderator" be in the same sentence as "donald trump" is ridiculous. if they want to project any serious presidential ambition, they'd say no. but they've already made their pilgrimage, kissed the ring of the birther in chief. >> next time i ask you a question, please don't hold

back. tell us what you really think about this. >> i think it's a great idea for democracy, i do. >> joe, richard questions, you know, are they going to show up? let me tell you, jon huntsman will not be attending. his spokesman sent this e-mail, "huntsman declined the trump debate and we look forward to governor romney suck up to trump with a big bowl of popcorn." will they or won't they? >> you've got one already in the no category. it's hard to determine whether or not the rest will follow. mostly because as richard and you have mentioned, they've already gone to visit. what is another step? but quite honestly, it seems like there's no upside here. i can imagine mitt romney turning it down. herman cain, we don't know if he's going to be around in the next couple of days. certainly, any serious candidate would want to turn this down, because it would be a freak show, a reality show. you never know what you might expect. >> joe, do these candidates know something that we don't know? i mean, is there a trump constituency? are there people seriously

waiting for a sign from the donnedond before they cast their lot with one of these candidates? >> i sure hope not. even if we're talking about political experience, there's no portfolio there with donald trump. if we're talking business experience, we've got a man who's been through several bankruptcies, who's business dealings have never been fully vetted. so we don't know. but there's obviously something they see, that the rest of us who live in the fact-based community don't really catch on to. >> richard, in a phone interview with tamron hall right here on msnbc earlier today, trump described the kind of questions he will ask as moderator. listen to this. >> i think we'll find out about how they feel about outside forces. i think you know very well, because you've reported it very well, how i feel about the outside world and taking advantage of this country, whether it's opec or china or so many other countries. and we're also going to get into other things, the environment. we'll get into education. we'll be discussing pretty much a large gamut of things. >> you know, i'm sure people are going to watch. my hunch is that this will

out-perform -- i don't know what ion television is, i guess we'll fi find out, but people will say, that was for the public's benefit. >> they'll also watch performing chimpanzees. he says that he's going to ask about the outside world, that's if he ventures into outside world anytime soon. i think david gregory is fine, his job is safe. the gamut of topics from "a" to "b" will be exhaustive, i'm sure. and you're not talking about "the washington post" doing this with donald trump. if the candidates want to do this, they say there's a 10, 15, 20-point block in the republican party is gettable through this kind of audience. that's just sad. >> donald trump -- joe, let me play one more clip for you to react to, if i may. donald trump says she's not looking to make an independent run, but doesn't shut the door

entirely either. >> i'm going to give an endorsement to somebody. and if that somebody gets -- obviously, gets the nomination, i'd be satisfied to see how that somebody does. but if not, if it's somebody that i don't think is going to win or if the economy's in particularly -- if the economy is very bad, which it has a very good chance to be, frankly, then we'll see what happens as to the independent -- i'm not looking to do the independent thing. as most people know, i love what i'm doing. i really love what i'm doing. and i think i do it really well. but i will be probably endorsing somebody right after the debate. >> i mean, he does this every four years. it's remarkable. somebody went back and did the research on it. and i think for the last four cycles, donald trump threatens to run, and of course, never does. joe? >> well, it's sort of like the swells coming back to capistrano or something. or the phrase that sticks in my mind is the eagle has landed. once donald trump makes his grand entrance, we know it's a

portion of the campaign season. but ion television is a basic cable network, subscribers on the low end. trump has virtually no expertise. and last i remember of seeing him publicly is being eviscerated by the president at the correspondents' dinner when he basically ripped him and trump was sitting there very stone-faced. he would have to contend with that i've scrutiny and i don't think he would hold up very well. >> richard, that has always been my belief. for example, i happen to believe that the reason he would never get in is he doesn't want to produce financial records in the format prescribed by the presidential process. i suspect he couldn't withstand that scrutiny and he sued a guy that wrote a book about his financial state in question, what it was really about. >> right, the scrutiny is not something he wants, although he obviously wants the attention. self-awareness is obviously not his strong point. when you consider, he's the moderator, but he's also talking about endorsing and maybe running. does he not think there's a conflict of interest there? maybe we could send him an e-mail or something.

>> he said that, by the way, he told tamron hall that he'd have preferred to stay in the race, implying that he once was >> i hope it does so well as "the apprentice" does, as you know. "the apprentice" has been an amazing thing. and you have equal time provisions. and unfortunately, that sort of makes it impossible for me to do what i would have like to have had done, because i was doing really well and leading in the polls when i left. >> joe, you know, the three of us have kind of dismissive of this whole thing. i happen to think it's a very sad commentary on the spectacle that this process has become. i have to imagine that in campaign headquarters tonight, they truly are not sure what they're going to do with his invitation. >> well, as you mentioned, it's a bit of a conundrum, because there probably is a constituency, a very narrow one, that would tune in and get some information about the candidates. and for all his hubris, donald trump does attract attention. you're absolutely right. this probably would get some ratings. how broadly it would expand, no

one knows. it's a bit of a ticking time bomb. >> i've got something to say about this at the end of tonight's program. thank you, richard wolffe. thank you, joe williams. up next, we'll hear from a washington insider about how the establishment really views the 2012 gop candidates. this is "hardball," only on msnbc.

a good day for president obama. the november jobs report shows the unemployment rate dropped from 8.6% down from 9% last month. and president obama had fun with former bill clinton at that event to push for more energy-efficient buildings. >> i never got to open for the rolling stones, so i'll try to do my best for the president. >> i am thrilled that president clinton has been willing to take this on. as he pointed out, partly thanks to me, he's home alone too often. >> we'll be right back to "hardball."

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when you're in the donut hole... it's all part of the health care law. december 7th? i better get goin'! [ male announcer ] medicare open enrollment ends soon. call 1-800-medicare or visit medicare.gov to learn more. hey, we're back. while we spent the first half of the show talking about the top tier of republican presidential candidates, we thought it might be interesting to hear from a washington insider about how the establishment really views the republican field and whether or not there's really a lack of enthusiasm for all of these individuals. craig shirley is a historian and the author of "december 1941: 31 days that changed america and saved the world." we'll talk more about the upcoming 70th anniversary of the bombing of pearl harbor and your new book in just a moment. but first, let's get into the politics. is there an establishment favorite among this field? >> actually, i'd say there are

two. there's ursa major and ursa minor, mitt romney and jon huntsman, those are the two establishment candidates. what it represents is through right now. it's going through a crisis with goldwater rockefeller and then reagan and bush. the party right now is going through a process of trying to figure out what it stands for and what its identity is. >> how about the establishment of newt, particularly given his surge? >> you know, i know he's lived here. and i've lived here, too. you can be in washington and never being of washington. reagan lived here for eight years and was never considered to be of washington even though he was head of the national government. ron nal reagan never joined the culture here, per se. the insiders have always held

him at arm's length because he never joined the establishment. >> craig, what's the sfat of the establishment relevant to instability? one of my arguments is they ought to spend more time in town, lift a cocktail together instead of running home on thursday morning and not returning until tuesday morning. what's your assessment? >> my point is that they do not associate the way they used to. there really aren't any conservative democrats anymore, per se, and there are very view liberal republicans. it makes it more difficult now because, frankly, the parties are more polarized. in one way it's a bad thing but another way you could look at it, it gives the voters an honest choice. they both have legitimacy and hopefully it should come down to

a contest of ideas. >> you've been so identified with republican causes over the years. does the incivility extend to the peripheral of a gentleman like yourself? >> well, we've had incivility going back to the 1800s and that's when it started. what is going on now is tame from 1860 or 1800 or even more recently. jimmy carter ran for president in 1980 and said that ronald reagan would separate north from south and christian from jew. if that is not incivil fity, i don't know what is. >> i was very interested to read your book where you break down day by day what was going on in the united states and globe by globe. i have the howard baker question

of what did fdr know and when did he know it? you point out that on the 4th of december, this 26-page memo marked "confidential" arrives and there were signs that something was imminent, no? >> absolutely. there were straws in the wind. the japanese invaded east china, invaded indoe china. they we we knew that straws were in the wind and the piece of puzzle was there and this advised that they were stepping up their he is spee john naj of the west coast of the united states and in roosevelt's defense and in his government's defense and military's defense, they did not believe and they did not know that japanese would travel thousands of miles, stop in the middle of the pacific to refuel and then travel to hawaii to undertake an audacious attack. and you would have to be a

really vial person and roosevelt was not. roosevelt was a magnificent war time president and you would have to be a pretty vial person. >> it's a great read. craig, thank you so much for being here to share it, next wednesday, the 70th anniversary. when we return, let me finish with why the process of selecting the gop nominee is a sad but true reality tv show. follow me on vitter if you can spell smerkonish. anyou...rent from national. because only national follow me on vitter if you can spell smerkonish. or above, and still pay the mid-size price. i'm getting an upgrade. [ male announcer ] as you wish, business pro. as you wish. go national. go like a pro. now through january earn a free day with every two rentals. find out more at nationalcar.com.

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let me finish tonight with this. i interviewed jim lair. he highlighted him having moderated 11 presidential and vice presidential debates. it's no wonder that he be asked to repeat that role so often. however, today it was announced that donald trump will moderate a gop debate. the position is illustrate tif of what this has become. the stakes of the koumpbt tree could not be higher, we're still at war from two countries, the divide between rich and poor has never been so large and unemployment may just have dropped but it remains too high at 8.6%. against this backdrop, the gop race has been very fluid while romney and paul's numbers have been steady. is that because of a public evaluation of policy differences

on war and taxes? heck, no. frankly, the race thus far has not been defined by substance. it's been notable for sound bites and there have been plenty of thoughs, praying away the gay, an economic proposal dumbed down to sound like the price of a pizza. there's been a number record number of debates but with answers to complex problems limited to 60 seconds, no substance has made the news. the debate headlines have been made by crowd reaction, like when a soldier got booed or someone suggested an e.r. patient with no insurance be left to die. for like the fittings of jim lair have been offered to donald trump. no word yet whether he will entertain questions from the audience or gary busse. it's a controversy of how this has become, a guy who plays the media every four years with his own alleged ambition of runnin