course and it changed course, and we can make it do so again. >> and the mere act of raising the roof on the issue together on the 28th amendment is san incredibly forceful political vehicle for justice, not power. david, thank you so much. we'll talk to you next time. that'll do it for us today. i'm dylan ratigan and "hardball's" up right now. republicans losing the fight on taxes. let's play some "hardball." good evening. i'm michael smerconish in new york. chris matthews is taking some time off after his tour for his new book. he'll be back on thursday. leading out of tonight, family feud. the republican on republican spitball fight over the payroll tax may be doing for democrats what they couldn't do for themselves. two national polls give president obama his best approval numbers in months, and republican infighting over

whether, when, and how to extend the payroll tax cut seems to be moving the numbers. it's possible the gop is finally paying the price for its full-body embrace of the tea party. plus, up in the air. three polls have mitt romney and newt gingrich in a dead heat nationally. and now ron paul is learning what it's like to join the front-runners in iowa. he's facing renewed questions about bigoted comments printed in his political news letters of two decades ago. also, why iowa? republicans there have proven as good at picking losers as winners. so why do we care so much what they think? a growing number of people are saying we shouldn't. and pants on fire. we'll look at politifact's biggest lies of the year, see if you can guess which one came in at number one. and finally, let me finish tonight with the millions being spent on ads by pacs and the candidates who hide behind them. we start with a republican family feud. dana milbank is a political columnist for "the washington pos post", and sam stein is the

white house correspondent for the "huffington post." gentleman, let me show you some data. there's good news for the president in terms of his overall approval rating, which is now up at 49%. that's five points higher than where it was last month, according to the new "washington post"/abc news poll. and part of the reason seems obvious, and that is this mess in washington over the payroll tax extension. look at these numbers from abc news and "the washington post" poll. when asked who they trust to better handle the issue of taxes, president obama now has a solid lead over congressional republicans, that's 46 to 41%. it's a big change from just two that same issue.epublicans hadn dana milbank, what do you make of it all? >> well, clearly, the improvement in the president's number numbers, i think we can agree, is nothing really the president has done per se. yeah, there's been a slight downtick in unemployment, but things fundamentally really haven't changed. and the truth is, this president has no business having numbers that high and being so strong in

the horse race for the re-election when the economy is this bad. so you can only conclude that there is something that is scaring them about the other side, and we have two things going on, which is the rise of newt gingrich, which is obviously terrifying to many voters in the middle, and also this unbelievable spectacle, i can't keep my eyes off of it, i've been on the hill the last two days and it's an absolute circus up there. and voters must be saying, we can't possibly let these guys run the show. >> sam, does anyone come out of this thing looking good? >> reporter: i think the polls indicate that the president comes out looking good. let's take a very sober look at this. where we started was democrats wanted to tax millionaires to pay for this payroll tax cut. republicans said, no way, they didn't haven't want to pass the payroll tax cut. now obama's given up the millionaire surtax, included the keystone pipeline tax into the deal, and what has he got for that, nothing? people say, he's willing to deal, the president, and he's

not being met halfway. we need someone to get something done. unemployment still remains a problem. one person is at least trying to constructively create a solution. the other is just moving away from it every time he puts his hand out. >> and also part of the narrative that troubles them is the fact that you have the republicans so identified with the preservation of the bush tax can cuts, and now when there's a tax cut most identified with the middle class, at a time when income disparity is being discussed like at no other point in our history, all of a sudden the republicans are on the other side. look, as you know, today the house voted to reject the payroll tax deal that passed overwhelmingly in the senate this weekend. house republicans are calling for a conference committee to negotiate between the house and senate proposals, no democrats voted with the republicans today. president obama then came into the briefing room to express his displeasure after the vote, and here's part of what he had to say. >> the clock is ticking. time is running out. and if the house republicans refuse to vote for the senate

bill, or even allow it to come up for a vote, taxes will go up in 11 days. democrats and republicans in the senate said we're going to put our fights on other issues aside and go ahead and do what's right. i need the speaker and house republicans to do the same. >> dana, there's been a role reversal. now it's the president standing up and going to the nation, arguing in support of a tax cut. what are the republicans thinking? put yourself in their position, as they're watching these optics. >> well, there seems to be a little bit of a panic going on right now, michael. at first they were saying, look, we're going to just stay here until the senate comes back into session. now this afternoon we're hearing, well, maybe they just want to tiptoe home for christmas after all. they really sort of backed themselv themselves into a corner here. even the average voter out there isn't following the nuance of the back and forth, they're saying, look, it's another mess on capitol hill. it's not the senate this time. harry reid's got his feet up

somewhere, they're seeing only images of john boehner and eric cantor and a lot of angry republicans on the house floor. >> may i make a broader point, though? for the past two months, since he introduced his jobs act, can, by the way, very little of that jobs act will ever see the light of day, but since he's been talking about, president obama's been almost solely focused on job creation. we've seen house republicans and senate republicans really focus their energy on where to pay for it. and i think that's a terrible contrast for them. look at any vote, look at any public polling and you'll see people care more about job creation, they're more worried about the economy than they are about deficit. it's a matter of fact. and if the president's going to spend two straight months talking about jobs and not be met by anybody else, that benefits him. it just has to happen. >> one consideration is how this is going to play at the top of the ticket, but you've got a third of the senate, as usual, and the full house up for re-election, and it brings to mind something senator mike brown of massachusetts, who's running for re-election next year, said this year. he released a statement bashing his republican colleague in the house, and today he wrote, "it angers me that house republicans

would rather continue playing politics than find solutions. their actions will hurt american families and be detrimental to our fragile economy." dana milbank, we talk about some of the more intransigent members of the gop-controlled house. they're going to have to stand for re-election. you wonder when they're going to take the pulse of the folks at home as pertaining to the data that we've been sharing. >> right. and a lot of the guys making things the most difficult right now are ones in fairly safe conservative districts. but, yes, they're making things very difficult for their senate colleagues in massachusetts, in nevada, the rise of newt gingrich has also put a drag on these guys as well. and at the same time, look, we don't know where the economy is going to be, you know, what kind of year it's going to be for democrats, but the experience here seems to vindicate the recent change in obama's strategy to take it to the republicans and take a much more aggressive stance in laying out these differences. so at least they seem -- the ms the seem to have at least a game plan now. >> sam, this is reminiscent to

me of the night of the attempted grand bargain between the speaker and the president imploded. and each provided their own narrative. but i remember a takeaway, at least from my perspective, was to think that speaker boehner just did not have control of the gop members of the house. now, i'm watching what's transpired 19 last couple of da days and i'm coming to the same conclusion. what's yours? >> there's no other conclusion to reach. you almost feel bad for speaker baynener a way, because while he's fighting president obama on one front, he's getting badgered on another. and if you look at the same abc news/"washington post" poll, one number that stuck out to me, 45% of self-identified tea partyers disapprove of republicans in congress. that number was at 73% approve just last spring. so speaker boehner has no love from his base, and he's constantly looking over his shoulder and he sees eric cantor just waiting for him to fail, and he has to balance these two interests, which is why he gets

some schizophrenic legislation making going on here. >> the congress has a an approval rate of 11%. it used to be if you were an incumbent, you had -- what did the data say, 90, 95% of odds of being re-elected. one wonders how incumbency plays in the cycle we're headed into right now. >> well, most of the incumbents, as always, will be fine. but something does seems to have fundamentally changed here and the whole place seems to have come unglued. last night in a private caucus meeting of the house republicans, you had ten members get up there and compare themselves to braveheart, the sort of mel gibson character fighting the english nobility. when you have a caucus that is governed by that kind of thinking, you know, and the public is going to look at this and say, look, these aren't reasonable people running our country. >> well, it's better because a couple months ago, they were comparing themselves to "the town." >> passions were high on the

floor of the house today. i'll give you an example. democratic congressman john lewis had strong words for republicans. here it is. >> what is happening here today is shameful, it is a disgrace, it is unreal, it is unbelievable. we can do better. if we fail today, how will you face your neighbor? family who are suffering. where's your compassion?! where's your heart?! where is your soul?! >> dana milbank, where does it end? give me the exit strategy. >> that's the problem. usually you can sort of see how these things work out. the disagreement here is fairly trivial, and it's not clear that the democrats have any incentive to get in, so they may just let the republicans stew in their own juice for many more days. and it looks like some people are canceling their holiday

vacations. >> it's a hard sell for those republicans to go home and say, well, we're for this tax cut, w but two months isn't enough. i think many constituents will say, we'll take the two months and in february you'll renew it. >> there are real-world consequences to this that will affect people in districts and people will living paycheck to paycheck and this will matter. >> no doubt. >> and i think at some point republicans are going to recognize that it's better for them to at least go two months and negotiate from there. >> dana milbank, thank you. sam stein, thank you as well. coming up, three new polls show newt gingrich and mitt romney tied, literally. and now ron paul is facing questions about racist and anti-gay remarks printed in his political newsletter 20 years ago. that's ahead. you're watching "hardball," only on msnbc. bolo snakeskin boots sequin costume under things stiletto heels skinny jeans houndstooth snuggie pork pie hat oshkosh socks 5% cash back. right now get 5% cash back at department stores. it pays to discover.

this was the gulf's best tourism season in years. all because so many people came to louisiana... they came to see us in florida... make that alabama... make that mississippi. the best part of the gulf is wherever you choose... and now is a great time to discover it. this year millions of people did. we set all kinds of records. next year we're out to do even better. so come on down to louisiana... florida... alabama... mississippi. we can't wait to see you. brought to you by bp and all of us who call the gulf home. when you pour chunky beef with country vegetables soup over it... you can do dinner. four minutes, around four bucks. campbell's chunky. it's amazing what soup can do. we've got new national poll numbers in the republican race coming up, but first, a couple of polls from early states. let's check the "hardball" scoreboard.

starting in new hampshire, where mitt romney's firewall is holding, he leads a new ppp poll with 35%. ron paul's at 19. newt gingrich is at 17. and in south carolina, a clemson university poll has gingrich with 38% to romney's 21%. ron paul at 10. one cavity, this poll was in the field for nearly two weeks, that's an eternity, in aas this. we'll be rig back.

hey, welcome back to "hardball." every time someone shoots to the front of the republican pack, they seem to sink quickly in the polls under the scrutiny of being the front-runner. newt gingrich is the latest to suffer that fate. three new polls show that gingrich has lost his lead and is now in a flat-footed tie with mitt romney. just take a look at that. all three polls, abc news/"washington post," cnn, cbs all have romney and gingrich in a dead heat. and while romney and gingrich fight it out for the top spot, ron paul is moving to the head

of the pack in iowa. and getting the scrutiny that comes with being the number one there. joining me now to talk about all of this is steve schmidt. he's a former senior adviser and strategist to both the mccain and bush presidential campaigns, as well as msnbc political analyst and bob shrum. steve, here's my question, does anyone come back once they go into purgatory, politically speaking. i'm speaking about how michele bachmann had some mow jjo and t she faded. and herman cain had mojo and faded, and rick perry had it and faded it, but it seems like they never come back. if newt is truly fading now, is he done or do you think he comes back? >> i think if he's fading, i think it's a permanent condition. none of the candidates have come back, as you've pointed out. i think it will be interesting, if you look at the iowa caucuses over the last couple of election cycles, there's always been a lot of turbulence around them in the days proceeding. i wonder if you'll see rick santorum maybe make a move up

here, one of the few candidates that really hasn't had a shot in the limelight yet. but if you look at this race, it seems to be stabilizing in mitt romney's favor. >> bob, all three of those major polls say dead heat. >> once you start bleeding, and gingrich is bleeding, the poll's direction tends to continue. he's been hurt under the weight of all this advertising in iowa. he's been hurt by christian conservatives abandoning him. i think, ironically, this could open the way for romney to do something no one thought he could do, which is to maybe win iowa. because the second choice of the gingrich voters out there is more romney than anybody else. and that would be a real irony, if that happened, because romney, i think, could then roll in new hampshire, do well enough in south carolina, and win florida. by the way, the romney second choice in iowa is unquestionably ron paul. because ron paul is an

unthinkable republican nominee. he's the ideal democratic version of the republican nominee, and if he emerges as the major alternative, then i think romney's pretty close to sealing the deal. >> steve, what's the implication of a ron paul victory in iowa? what does it say about new hampshire, south carolina, florida, and so forth? >> well, i think what's more important is the durability of ron paul in this race. if he wins iowa, is he able to go forward during the entirety of the republican nominating process, picking up 15 to 20% of the vote. if that happens all the way through the process, he would stand at the end of it the leader of a sizable faction in a republican party that supports views that are antithetical to the views of much of the mainstream of the republican party. so you see this interesting debate starting to take place in the republican party, precipitated by the rise of ron paul and his movement. which, i think, is a lot more

serious than it was four years ago. >> we've all had this conversation on many occasions. it just seems lightning this proce process on the gop side of the aisle is lacking practicality. as badly as they want to defeat barack obama, there doesn't seem to be an analysis by many of these voters as to who among those on the stage is best suited to win a general and not a primary. >> well, there's always -- i think -- >> i think -- >> go ahead, steve. >> go ahead, steve. >> well, i think an increasing question for the republican nominee ultimately is how do you keep ron paul in the fold? how do you keep ron paul and his movement inside the republican party, prevent him from leaving the party to mount a third party bid? because if your goal is, as a republican, to win the white house, a third party ron paul bid is a big, big problem as you look ahead to november. >> bob, let me see what you think of this. paul, who's leading in some of these iowa polls as we've mentioned, now seeing what it's like to be a front-runner. "the weekly standard" reports on

the inflammatory quotes from some of those news letters that were published under his name 20 years ago. one newsletter featured a quote about the l.a. riots, which read, "order was only restored in l.a. when it came time for the blacks to pick up their welfare checks." another newsletter said people with aids should not be allowed to eat in restaurants because "aids can be transmitted by saliva." there was also a criticism of ronald reagan making martin luther king day a annual holiday referring to it as the "annual hate whitey day." he says he's not the one who wrote them or signed them. >> well, he published them. i think they're disqualifying them. i think steve's absolutely right. he's not only unacceptable inside the republican party, outside the mainstream of the republican party, he's unacceptable in america. he's a disqualified presidential candidate, and not just because of what he's written. but he could win iowa. look, as steve knows very well,

because he and i spent a lot of decembers and januarys in iowa, iowa operates a little differently on the republican side than the democratic side. since 1980, in contested iowa caucuses, the democratic winner has gone on to the nomination 84% of the time. for republicans, that figure is only 60%. pat robertson, for heaven's sake, finished ahead of george h.w. bush in 1988. that didn't mean that republicans didn't come back in 1986 and contest the caucuses. they did. but i can tell you right now, there's a real chance, i think with that iowa can take a flyer here, unless those gingrich bleeds all go to romney and romney pulls an upset. then romney has an ideal situation either way. either he wins iowa, he's on a roll, or he gets to run against ron paul, and i can't conceive that he wouldn't the republican nominee under those circumstances. >> steve, is it a pipe dream that some semblance of a gop organization or establishment in iowa can get it together and say, hey, we don't want to be

embarrassed here. we want to pick a winner, and consequently, in the next two weeks, we need to coalesce around candidate "x" or "y"? >> i don't know if there's any establishment that has that level of control over this part of the republican primary electorate. i think one of the things we've seen already this year is the diminution of importance of the iowa straw poll, and i suspect in four years, you'll have even fewer candidates participating in it than this year. but if the caucus does, you know, finish, you know -- the person who finishes in the caucus, you know, in the first position is someone who is not electab electable, is considered a fringe candidate by the majority of the party, that doesn't bode well for the future of the iowa caucuses, and i think that's certainly a fair point. >> bob, if i'm in the white house and i'm watching what's going on on the republican side of the aisle, given the fluid nature of it, i imagine i'm thrilled? >> yeah, you're thrilled. but at the end of the day, i think the obama campaign believes it's going to be romney. and you know, the funny thing is, we've searched all year for

the un-romney. the truth is, romney may win because he's the un-gingrich, the un-paul, the un-perry, and the un-bachmann. he may be a flip-flopper, but he doesn't seem fatally flawed to republicans. >> thank you both, to steve schmidt and to bob shrum. appreciate your expertise. up next, mitt romney once again tried to dispel the notion that he's too uptight. highlights from his top ten list last night on letterman. that's next in the sideshow. you're watching "hardball," only on msnbc. ♪ i don't need anyone else in my arms ♪

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or if you have high fever, confusion and stiff muscles, to address a possible life-threatening condition. tell your doctor about alcohol use, liver disease, and before you reduce or stop taking cymbalta. dizziness or fainting may occur upon standing. side effects include nausea, dry mouth, and constipation. [ male announcer ] ask your doctor about cymbalta. imagine you, with less pain. cymbalta can help. go to cymbalta.com to learn about a free trial offer. welcome back to "hardball." now for the sideshow. first up, let loose. that's just what many republican voters have been hoping for when it comes to mitt romney. well, he gave them a run more their money last night, or at least tried, by appearing on the "late show" with david letterman. young romney's too uptight?

judge for yourself. here he is with his own top ten list of things that he would like to say to the american people. >> isn't it time for a president who looks like a 1970s game show host? what's up, gangstas. it's the m-i-double-tizel. live from new york, it's saturday night! my new cloologne is now availab at macy's. it's mits-i-fied. >> and the number one thing mitt romney would like to say to the american people -- >> it's a hairpiece. >> letterman's top ten list has become as much a part of american politics as kissing babies and eating bratwursts. up next, he knows if you've been bad or good. as members of congress clashed over the payroll tax cut extension, one democratic representative brought in some holiday-themed props to make his point. here's jim mcdermott of washington state accusing republicans of playing scrooge.

>> it's christmastime. kids are hanging their socks all over the world. and they're all getting up and hoping there'll be something in that sock on christmas day. and the republicans have something to put in it. they have a lump of coal! they're going to say to 160 million people, we're going to boost your taxes. here's your christmas gift, right? >> with the approval rating for congress now at a record low, it seems perfectly clear who the american people think should wake up to a pile of coal this sunday, am i right? and finally, may the best man win, or at least the one who can withstand the firestorm of attack ads taking center stage in the republican presidential race. just ask bill clinton, the former president appeared on the "today" show this morning to talk about the 2012 showdown and whether newt gingrich will be able to weather the storm, despite being the target of negative ads. let's listen. >> you find out a lot about

people in the crucible of battle. and they're all turning on him now. and running all these negative ads, and basically, it's funny, they're basically doing to each other now, in a serial way, what they did to the democrats in 2010, and then they fight back and one rises and one falls. it's going to be interesting, because it appears that right now he or governor romney have the edge and one with the greatest resilience, with the ability to come back from adversity will probably prevail. >> kind of makes the whole thing sound like a reality show in the wilderness, doesn't it? up next, why do we pay so much attention to what happens in iowa? the state has a history of picking candidates that don't win the nomination. and critics say if ron paul wins this time around, whatever relevance iowa has left is going to be lost. you're watching "hardball," only on msnbc. ♪ [ man ] we've been in the business over the course of four centuries.

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i'm brian sullivan with your cnbc market wrap. and it was, indeed, a good day on wall street. the dow surging 337 points. the s&p and the nasdaq are also rising. some good news out of europe, some higher confidence numbers. but the real beat was because of stronger than expected housing data here in the united states. housing starts rising more than expected. much of that, yes, was for apartment buildings and multi. family homes. but building permits also rose. a little bit of a good news slant to some of the housing data that we have seen recently. that lifted all boats. we had some better than expected results from an investment bank called jeffries, which had been around fire. you sort of factor that all in and what you get is a hungry man meal and all the components for a 337-point rally for the dow jones industrial average. the dow, by the way, is now up 4 1/2% for the year.

despite all the bad news, stocks are closing in on a higher 2011. with your cnbc market wrap, i am brian sullivan. welcome back to "hardball." does the state of iowa really deserve to hold the first presidential nominating contest? a lot of people have been saying lately that it doesn't, including a university of iowa professor who's lived in the state for 20 years and writes, "in a perfect world, no way would iowa ever be considered representative of america or even a small part of it. there are few minorities, no sizable cities, and the state's about to lose one of its five seats in the u.s. house because its population is shifting. still, thanks to a host of nonsensical political precedents, whoever wins the iowa caucuses in january will very likely have a 50% chance of being elected president 11 months later. go figure."

is it time for another state to be first in the nation? joy-ann reid is managing editor of the grio and an msnbc contributor. erin mcpike is the national political reporter for real clear politics covering the 2012 gop race. here's the article headline, "iowa the over." in the atlantic, ari melber writes, "this year the idea of iowa in presidential politics will probably die." joy, do you buy into that? >> the thing with iowa, it rewards the kind of politicking that is less and less a part of campaigns. it rewards the passion of getting people to caucus for two hours, and yeah, it's demographically unrepresentative. so i think in a lot of ways, iowa is an anachronism, and if mike huckabee is any guide, it tends to nominate somebody who tends to go on to then not win the nomination. not always, but it did recently. >> erin, is this a conversation we have every four years, or is there something different about

it this year? >> it's been increasing over the last couple of campaigns. as you remember, four years ago, there was a push to get some states earlier in the calendar. like florida. and like nevada. this year, florida made a push to come earlier and they won, so candidates are placing more of an effort on florida, like newt gingrich. like mitt romney. but also, arizona has tried really hard to move up in the california as well, and it's states with big cities that don't get to go early. and they want to see a change, because they have all of these people in urban areas who feel like they're not getting much of a say in the primary contest. >> erin and joy ann, look at this, the winner of the iowa caucuses was the eventual republican nominee less than half the time. here are the last five contests in which there wasn't an incumbent president running. 2008, iowa chose huckabee, the nominee was mccain. in 2000, iowa chose george w. bush, and bush was the nominee. '96, iowa chose bob dole and dole won the nomination.

in 1988, dole won iowa, but george herbert walker bush won the nomination. 1980, it was george herbert walker bush winning the caucuses, but reagan won the nomination. so iowa by this count, joy ann, two for five. what do you make of it? >> bill clinton didn't win the iowa caucuses in 1992 either. so i don't think that that's necessarily the reason that iowa is starting to look like an a an act roistic choice to be the first. i think what erin said is more important. this is a very unrepresentative group of voters. and it's also a form of voting that is not representative of the rest of the country. so i think, particularly in the republican party, however, it's a chance for the evangelical wing of the party to be heard, because they are just so dominant. and, again, is that going to help them with independents going forward? would the person who can win that group of voters be the most electable? probably not. >> erin, i'm glad that joy-ann brought it up, because this year it seems like the evangelical community has not coalesced around a single candidate. >> they can't. but some of the candidates are trying really hard to get that vote. i was in iowa just this past

weekend, and michele bachmann, rick santorum, and rick perry were all talking about their own faith and how important it was to them, and trying to fell voters, you should choose based on your values. because they know that those voters come out the most to the caucuses, and those are the voters that put mike huckabee over the top four years ago. >> the iowa conservative christian group, the family leader, which hosted a gop debate and has great sway in the state's politics said in a statement today, as a matter of fact, "the family leader will remain neutral in this presidential campaign cycle." although the group's two leaders have personally endorsed rick santorum. joy-ann, that's a big plus for his campaign given the christian community in that state. >> yeah, absolutely. and rick santorum has always been sort of the most awe authenticicly provokely christian, if you want to put it that way, christian of the candidates. but does he have a shot at getting the nomination? no. but i think for the republican party, which is a three-legged stool, you've got oldion birch society guys, which we now call the tea party. you've got the corporate ring that wants romney. and you've got these evangelicals that seem to have

no place to go. they don't like romney, he's not a christian in their sense of the word, and they can't feel comfortable 100% with newt gingrich. it is sort of a mess. >> erin, if ron paul is victorious two weeks from today in the iowa caucus, what does that do vis-a-vis in terms of iowa being the first in the nation? in other words, will they jeopardize their standing? >> they very well might. and iowa republicans and iowa democrats are both very worried with this. but one thing i would add, michael, this is the one time that fly over country really gets a say in the political process. that's an argument we'll continue to hear four years from now from other states try to knock iowa off. midwestern lawmakers complain all the time that legislation going through congress has really underserved rural america. so this is the one time they get a say and that's the argument they'll continue to make. >> i wish they would implement regional primaries and just start in different part of the country every four years and keep it moving. let me show you that a republican party chair in hardin

county, iowa said. he hopes that a ron paul win will hurt the state's relevance. "my biggest fear is that the republican party nationally and a lot of states that want process will simply point to ron paul winning and say, iowa's irrelevant." joy-ann, i imagine that would be an argument made by floridians. they'll say, we're more representative of the nation, we represent all demographics. let us go first next time. >> yeah, and especially for republicans, mike, because, remember, florida is the one state where you have a republican party that's got a significant share of hispanics. so florida has made a really strong case that they should be earlier. and look, if iowa gets discredited because ron paul wins, it won't be because msnbc says that it's discredited, it will be because of opinion leader tons right. the news leaders that serve them, the blogs that serve them, they discredit that anything that ron paul wins. it's sort of baked in the cake. if he wins with tb opinion leader tons right will say, iowa didn't matter. >> erin, it seems like the process, and i mentioned this

previously, is lacking in practicality. the people are going in there for a visceral vote, not necessarily who can win in a general election against barack obama. >> well, that's right, but one other thing here. the iowa system is caucuses. it's not a primary. so it's not that people get to come in and cast a vote based on a secret ballot. so what it is is if your neighbor can peer pressure you to support the candidate that he or she supporting, you're more likely to go with that one and not get to make up your own mind. so it's kind of a double whammy of impracticality. >> joy-ann reid, erin mcpike, thank you so much for being here. up next, the biggest lies in politics this year. politifact has compiled the "a" list of the biggest who weres. that's ahead. this is "hardball," only on msnbc.

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but first, let's take a look at some of the other finalist, the lowlights, if you will. and to help us sift through the facts and fiction, we're joined by ron reagan, the author of "my father at 100." ron, we'll start with this piece of misinformation from michele bachmann. it was a gop debate in tampa back in december. you'll remember she criticized rick perry for ordering the vaccination of young schoolgirls in texas to guard against hpv. then the next morning, she was asked about it and repeated what she was told by a woman the night before. here it is. >> i had a mother last night come up to me, here in tampa, florida, after the debate. she told me that her little daughter took that -- took that vaccine, that injection, and she suffered from mental retardation thereafter. >> i thought the worst part about it was repeating such a scurrilous rumor. >> yeah, the irresponsibility of that. there are many children, of course, that get vaccines for all sorts of things. i know that this is a source of contention for some people, but to tell people as a presidential

candidate that this particular vaccine causes mental retardation, based on what, some woman who came up to you at the the end of a debate and blurted this out? that's the height of irresponsibility. >> and medicale professionals sy they're forever fighting this online. >> i think there are a substantial number of scientists who have manipulated that and so that they will have dollars rolling in to their projects. and i think people are seeing it almost weekly or almost daily scientists are coming forward and questioning the original idea that man-made global warming is what is causing the climate to change. >> substantial number of scientists, he says. >> yeah. that substantial number would be probably -- the substantial

number of climatologists who actually question aman-made warming is probably similar to the number of biologists who question evolution. which is something else the republican candidates are always bringing up. that number is close to zero. zero. >> and that's how rick perry ends up on the list. all right. next in terms of the lies, politifact accuses the president -- i have to say, i remember their final list of ten, and they were, they were, you know, equal opportunity offenders. people might wompnder, okay, gi us some of those democratic lice. they say it was the president and the truth about his record on taxes. let's watch part of the interview that he did with bill o'reilly. >> do you deny you're a man who wants to redistribute wealth? >> absolutely. >> you deny that? >> bill, i didn't raise taxes once. >> politifact says for the record, the president signed legislation raising taxes on cigarettes. the health care law also includes new taxes on wealthier americans and also on people who

opt not to have insurance. >> this is where it gets a little interesting here, with politifact. now, this is not exactly a lie. clearly, when he was talking to bill o'reilly, he was thinking of income tax, taxes on income. payroll tax and federal income tax. instead, what we get is, well, it's not quite true, because he raised cigarette taxes and also that terrible big tax on in-door tanning beds. was in the -- compare that line with some of the other lies that we've just heard that are just nose-blowing, outrageous lies, totally false. it's a different category, altogether. >> i have to say, i try to play it down the middle, and when i looked at their final list, on one hand, i credited them for being nonpartisan in the approach, but any rational observer would have to take a look at the ten finalists and say that there was just no comparison between the breadth of those on one side as compared to the other side of the aisle. here's another whopper that's been repeated by a number of republicans. "zero jobs were created by the

president's stimulus program." that claim appeared in an ad by the national republican senatorial committee. >> well, the cbo disagrees with that, they come up with between 1.3 million and 3.6 million jobs created or saved by the stimulus package. if you look at moody's and groups like that that look at the situation, they tend to revolve around 2.5 million jobs saved or generated by the stimulus package. 2.5 million is a long way from zero. >> you'll not be surprised if i tell you the number of times my phone rings on radio and people say to me well, you know, of course, not a single job was created by the stimulus bill. >> well, these are people who listen to a certain other cable network, fox, which is not a news station as much as a propaganda outfit and as we now know study after study has proven the more you watch fox, the less you know. >> here it is, ron reagan. it's the politifact lie of the year, the democratic claim that republicans voted to end

medicare. it appeared in a humorous ad by the democratic campaign committee this year. here's what it looked like. >> you missed a spot. >> did someone call the fire department because it's about to get hot in here. >> the democratic congressional campaign committee is responsible for the content of this advertising. >> ron reagan, that's the lie of the year, according to a pulitzer prize winning website politifact, the blogosphere is on fire as a result of it today. >> indeed, i notice that had as soon as i got up this morning and as well they should be. now, we can argue about this sort of thing, the idea that -- that the republicans didn't actually vote to end medicare tomorrow and call it a whole different program, but clearly

what the ryan plan proposed was to phase out medicare and turn it into a voucher program over 10, 20, maybe even 30 years, so while the democrats might be exaggerating a little bit there for effect, essentially they are correct. >> and i should point out that politifact wraps themselves in part from factcheck.org, quote, medicare would remain an entitlement program but would be more costly to future beneficiaries. it would not end. >> well, it might not end, but, again, everybody knows that republicans or a certain hard core of republicans don't like medicare and want to undermine it. they want to privatize the program. they want to turn it -- just like they want to privatize social security and make it a boondoggle for wall street, they want to shovel more money to the private insurance industry and that's what the aim of the ryan plan was so when developments say they are voting to end medicare, in effect they are correct. >> ron reagan, thanks as always for your time.

happy holidays. >> you, too. when we return, allow me to finish with the big republican superpacs that pour money into the race and the candidates that hide behind them. you're watching "hardball," only on msnbc. everyone believes in keeping their promises once a year. but we believe in helping people take steps to keep them every single day. that's why every day we help people across the country get into their first homes. prepare for a comfortable retirement and protect the people and things that matter most.

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two weeks from today voters go to the caucuses in iowa, and

in this the 11th hour there's been another sharp turn in the rad with regard to the tumultuous gop primary. this one is different than those which preceded it. prior dalliances with candidates ended with discontent upon closer scrutiny. ron paul has been notable for his steady numbers, but michele bachmann had the mojo and lost, it same with rick perry and then herman cain. those looking for an alternative to mitt romney then seemed to settle on newt gingrich. in iowa, a pp survey from two weeks ago showed gingrich in first place in that state with 27% of the vote. this week, gingrich is down to 14%, trailing ron paul and mitt romney. nationwide, gallup released a daily tracking poll that confirmed gingrich's lead has evaporated and a cnn poll confirms that standing. so what happened? well, as we've discussed here and as is documented on the front page of today's "new york times," gingrich has been on the receiving end of a barrage of negative attacks, not only from his opponents, but also from their super pacs. gingrich has struggled in the

face of the attacks trying to honor a promise he made to remain positivech he'll now mount a bus tour to try to combat the negativity, but that's going to be tough to do in the face of 1,200 negative ads. that's right. according to cantar media, iowans have been showed a negative message about mr. gingrich more than 1,200 times in the last few weeks. the biggest player by far in the state has been restore our future, that's a super pac supporting mr. romney. so far it's spent $2.6 million on television ads depicting gingrich as tainted by scandal, soft on illegal immigration and corrupted by decades of work in washington. so the "boston globe" now notes that super pacs, the new campaign we oven choice since last year's supreme court ruling which struck down contribution limits and corporations, labor unions and wealthy individuals, are playing an increasingly muscular role in the days before the first contests in the republican presidential nominating election. so, with two weeks until the iowa caucuses and three weeks

until the new hampshire primary, committees that are lined with specific candidates have poured more than 7 million into ads in the early states. they say that all is fair in love and war, and so, too, in politics, but here's one thing that is unfair. the anonymous nature of these attacks, and that needs to change. iowans will go to the polls on january 3rd, but there need be no disclosure on who is donating to the super pacs funding the attacks until january 31. the "globe" noted that the identities of many of the donors to these super pacs may not be disclosed to the election commission until january 31, the date of the florida primary, when year-end reports are due. in theory, at least, if one candidate gets hot through the early contests, the nomination could be wrapped up before the public knows who paid for the advertisements that will fill the airwaves with increasing frequency. citizens united changed the way in which campaigns are being funded, but there still can be transparency. in the internet age in which we