figure out how much bill karins paid wes to dodge the daily weather man insults. >> listen, i love bill and i was so happy to hear such good news news reports. $50, actually. $50. >> we have some followers, actually. kevin o'keeffe writes i'm watching because i was an intern and a d. >> dr. allen runs youth works in pittsburgh and they're doing outstanding work out there. and kevin worked in the great city of baltimore. i'm a proud baltimorean. and i'm glad you're up this early, even though that's pretty early, kevin. i appreciate that. "morning joe" starts right now. . obama just changed the entire dynamic. >> we need to create a dynamic

moment in this campaign or we're dead. >> senator mccain today reshuffling his most senior campaign staff. >> we desperately need a game-changing hit. none of these middle-aged white guys are game changers. so find me a woman. >> sarah, sarah -- >> i will be honored to accept your nomination for vice president of the united states. >> okay. that's going to be good. that's unbelievable. julianne moore? >> the authors, i hear they are such -- >> very close there, joe. >> jerks. >> it's thursday, it's december 22nd. >> what's that all about? >> i know, i still have gifts to go get. >> really?

>> yeah, it's a little overwhelming right now. >> go on amazon, that's what all the kids are doing. >> with us onset, national affairs editor for "new york magazine," john heilemann, financier steve rattner, and host of msnbc's "politics nation" and president of the national action network, reverend al sharpton. >> this is big. >> this is big. >> this is big. what christmas plans you got, rev? you work all the time. >> -- guys you were shooting crap with on the commercial -- >> they've been paid off. they're not going to say a word. >> they've been paid off? >> they've been paid off. >> we will see. i recognized one of them. >> i bet you did. >> he hasn't been to church in a while. >> he'll get out there. mika -- >> yes. >> every candidate has their turn. >> well, that's true. >> and last week -- >> lord knows we learned that with herman cain.

>> -- it was newt's turn, and newt got absolutely savaged. >> he did. >> i participated in some of that -- >> you did. some say you were a little over the top. >> well, i believe all of the media was over the top. i agree with what i said, just the sheer volume of it may have been a bit much. guess whose turn it is today. newt's time has passed. >> ron paul. >> ron paul. >> everybody gets their time in the barrel, joe. and guess what? he's in the barrel right now. what ron paul thinks of america, an absolutely devastating -- >> savage. >> devastating editorial by dorothy. and anybody who knows dorothy knows this is a shock because she never speaks her mind but savages ron paul giving one example after another of how he has apologized for ahmadinejad,

for iran, and how he repeatedly blames the united states of america for the death of 3,000 people on 9/11. this is what happens when you go to the top of -- when ron paul's second or third place, all of his supporters can e-mail and tweet us going why don't you ever talk about ron? you hate america, it's a media conspiracy. yeah, that's right. and by the way -- i am libertarian leaning. so you even attack me when i say nice things about ron paul. you want ron paul to be talked about? >> here you go. >> here you go, baby. this is your week. i want you to bathe in it because you've been complaining about it for four years. this is your -- i'm talking about -- i've said nice things about ron paul. >> this is only half of the ron paul story. she was talking about foreign policy. >> foreign policy. >> he wants to abolish the fed, abolish income taxes, cut $1 trillion from spending, wants to

abolish half the government departments. >> when you start talking domestic, i'm all about ron paul. >> you are not all about ron paul. you put up a great fight, but you are not. >> it goes on with a testy exchange on the air that shows that maybe he is beginning to feel the heat we speak of. >> and also, people wanted ron paul to be examined in the media. >> and they're looking. >> they are looking. there were some comments made, racist comments in news letters which he profited from. >> well. >> and that were written in his voice and that he previously claimed authorship of some, although we don't know which. so there's a little ambiguity, he's denying he had anything to do with the ones that said that gays were trying to poison the blood supply with aids. he's saying he didn't write that, we don't know, because a few years ago he was claiming credit for some of these newsletters. >> ron paul supporters, and i have been positive toward you on many fronts. you wanted to be in the news,

you're in the news. mika, read the news. >> let's touch on what heilemann was talking about. but first to the latest numbers. the iowa caucuses less than two weeks away, and ron paul sits atop the latest iowa state university poll with 28% support. newt gingrich trails paul by three points, still within the margin of error, and mitt romney in third, ten points behind paul, rick perry fourth place, 11% support, michele bachmann, rick santorum, round out the top six both in single digits. >> the person that took the poll, the main analysis guy for this polling organization said actually these numbers might be understated because ron paul supporters are younger, they're on cell phones, but they're also highly charged enough to go out to caucus. do you agree with that? >> he's drawing huge crowds. the only republican drawing big crowds, ron paul, and on college campuses. he's activated a group of young

voters on that side of the party -- i'm sorry in the republican party who no one else is touching. >> do the college kids go to the caucuses instead of playing call of duty? >> well, in 2008, the argument of the clinton campaign was that the college students would not turn out for barack obama, but they turned out in massive numbers. there's precedent, at least on the democratic side in 2008 that these people won't necessarily stay home playing video games. >> playing "call of duty." right now, though, it's looking good for ron paul. >> it is. and this is one of the things i learned in my ten days in iowa this month. he is the only -- and those who despise him out there. there are many party regulars who think if he wins the caucuses, it will destroy the caucuses. he's the only one with a traditional rigorous caucus operation organizationally throughout the state. no one else has that. and the combination of the passion of the supporters and the fact he's gotten operation makes him very strong. >> looks like a winning hand. >> with his rise in the polls, ron paul is facing scrutiny.

as reports resurfaced and we touched on this at the top about racist newsletters sent under the congressman's name back in the early 1990s. paul got testy defending himself during an interview with cnn. >> i didn't write them, i disavow them, and that's it. >> but you made money off of them. >> that was when i was still practicing medicine. >> there are reports you made almost $1 million off of them in 1993. >> oh, i'd like to see that money. >> so you read them, but you didn't do anything about it at the time. >> i never read that stuff. i was probably aware of it ten years after it was written and it's been going on 20 years that people have pestered me about this. and cnn does it every single time, when are you going to wear yourself out? >> is it legitimate? is it a legitimate question to ask that something went out in your name? >> and when you get the answer it's legitimate that you sort of take the answer i give.

>> these things are pretty incendia incendiary. >> because of people like you. >> no, no, no, come on, the stuff was incendiary, saying in 1993, the israelis were responsible for the bombing of the world trade center -- >> good-bye. >> that's one way to end the interview. hasn't happened to us yet, mika, though we've tried. so explain just before we talk about this. has he taken credit for these writings in the past? >> well, he previously said that -- this was a newsletter written under his name in a first person voice as if he were speaking. and previously he said he wrote some of them, not all of them, but some of them. he'd taken responsibility for some of them. he didn't specify which. i'm not exactly sure what the date was he did that, it was some time ago. >> back in '96? >> in the '90s. >> so there's ambiguity about

who wrote this. you have people write in your voice if you're a professional politician, he has claimed credit for some of these. and some on the right are point in timing out, now, if you're going to criticize barack obama for his association with reverend jeremiah wright, for instance, which many did, you should be able to criticize ron paul for whoever was writing his newsletters that he was profiting from. >> they're in his name. >> yes, in his name, in his voice. >> it's actually even a tighter fit with ron paul because they were in his name, he was selling them, making money off of them. >> and in addition, i just would say, you know this is also true as a politician, usually even if you do not write them, most responsible politicians, if something's being sent out in their name in their voice, at least approve them. he must have seen them. >> there is a tension that we need to explain here among ron paul supporters. there are some who will embrace his domestic agenda, embrace the idea of a smaller government.

even if they don't agree with everything. and they have been saying for some time with their eyes rolled and i know because i know a lot of people who -- that's my crowd as far as small government libertarians who will roll their eyes, be concerned like dorothy about foreign policy, but also, reverend al, will go away from an event saying there is always a strain of anti-semitism -- i've never heard the racism part, but a strain of anti-semitism there. >> well, i think when you read the statements in his name, the problem is that you're not dealing with someone that has dealt with in a forthright manner what happened. you can say something and later say i shouldn't have said it, i apologize. >> we've all done that. >> right. all of us have gone through that. but you can't say something and turn around and act as though you didn't know it was said. you don't know you benefitted from it. after as john said you said,

yes, i wrote some of it. it's ambiguous what you wrote and you don't clarify that and you get angry when people ask about it. and i think that's the danger zone he's in. but i think what it does -- benefit newt in iowa. or paul and i think john is right because i was in the caucuses in 2004. if paul has the people to move, there's not a primary, it's a caucus, and he wins, he could set up romney who could come and win new hampshire and move on. because paul can't live past iowa. and i think this is a question of whether it helps newt if he drops enough to help newt? or does he become the set-up man for the resurrection of willard as i call him mitt romney. >> that's exactly what terry branstad says. he told "politico" this. people are going to look at who

comes in second, just as you said, reverend al. and who comes in third. if mitt romney comes in a strong second, it helps him going into new hampshire and the other. >> this is actually -- this is actually i think a big help to newt because it stops the bleeding. the focus turns to ron paul. >> yeah. >> he's the front guy. he's going to get hammered, and if you look at this poll, newt has dropped in iowa but he's sitting there about a point or two behind, and i'm telling you, the story, steve rattner, you're a numbers guy and you come in with charts and graphs -- >> he has some today. >> you ought to chart mitt romney's whole numbers over the past year or two. it is a flat line. this latest poll, 17% in iowa, this guy is getting 17%, 20% in these early states. more in new hampshire and his home state. >> well, it was a flat line for a long time, then started to creep up, and then the newt thing happened and that pushed him back down, now the ron paul

thing happened and it's pushing him back down. >> well, there's always people that push him down. >> my favorite source of data because it's markets and i'm a financier type of guy, intrade is giving romney 20% plus chance and giving gingrich 10%. >> it was funny, the intrade is a useful tool, but as you know with markets, there's a herd mentality. at the beginning of the month, romney fell from 70% to 40%. now he's back up to 70% again. now intrade's with romney. >> i grant you that. >> there's -- >> the stupidity of polls, i like to look at intrade. >> that's a good point. >> the question is, does -- does somebody have to win iowa and new hampshire? to launched forward to compete with romney's organization?

is it not enough for ron paul to win iowa and -- >> you need to have someone -- i think the only way for someone to be able to take on romney in the long haul is to win three of the first four states. you could lose new hampshire. >> right. >> you would need to win iowa, south carolina, and then florida. >> who is capable of doing that? >> well, newt on the basis of the numbers, newt is the only person in position to do that. >> he's the only one. >> there are people in the romney world who think, in fact, because they're very dismissive of newt's long-term prospects. they think if ron paul won iowa, he'd be stronger in new hampshire because the libertarian streak up there, there are some in the romney world think that ron paul would be a bigger threat than newt would be. in terms of the poll numbers, the only one who has a chance of doing that is gingrich. and he would have to rebound, though. and it would have to work the way you suggested.

>> the nightmare scenario is ron paul wins iowa, for the romney campaign. he gets enough momentum to win new hampshire, which could happen, live free or die state, and then they go south to south carolina where romney's already weakened, and then newt gets the surge in south carolina. because, again, for those two weeks, the story is not about newt. it's about mitt romney's collapse. >> yep. >> and then newt pushes up in south carolina and florida, and then you're off to the races in a battle between mitt, newt -- >> but the linchpin in what you said was the idea of romney losing new hampshire, which would be a disaster by any calculation. >> it's going to be an interesting couple of weeks coming up. one more story before we go to break. this was breaking late yesterday, president obama is stepping up the public pressure on house republicans today. with a plan to meet with average americans whose paychecks will take a $1,000 hit next year if congress cannot agree on a deal to extend the payroll tax cuts.

behind the scenes, the president is urging house speaker john boehner to reconsider the senate's bipartisan plan, that was agreed upon, to extend the breaks for two more months. in a ten-minute phone call yesterday, the president told the house speaker that the senate's bill was "the only option." but as of this morning, the speaker is still dug in echoing his push for a year-long solution. the opposition is drawing fire from all sides of the political spectrum with both the white house and senate republicans taking aim at the house. >> the uncertainty that we have to eliminate is the uncertainty the americans have right now about whether or not their taxes are going up on january 1st. there's a bipartisan compromise available to make sure that doesn't happen. just take it. >> are republicans getting killed right now in public opinion? there is no question. are we on a bad path as it relates to public policy? no question. both republicans and democrats

have agreed that this is going to happen. and probably the best thing to happen now is just to get it over. >> okay. >> the "wall street journal" said the same thing -- republicans are getting pounded. >> when the "wall street journal" comes out -- they have put themselves in a precarious position to put it nicely. and i think the president's doing the right thing. he's helping them go over the cliff. to meet with average americans today to put a face on this, that this is not just partisan politics, people are really suffering. i don't see how they think they can get away with this. it's wrong, but it's also politically very, very destructive for the -- >> well, as i've said, mika, i agree with them policiwise, the republicans. i think two months is a complete waste of money. politically, though, they're in a bad position. they're getting killed. >> i disagree with you, but i think it's really great for the president, unfortunately. >> the house republicans are going to have to fold if they

want to save their skins. the only possibility is the two-month extension, and then a conference committee will agree to look at the year. that's the only deal out there. coming up, we have senate majority whip dick durbin, dr. zbignew brzezinski, and jim miklaszewski will be here. >> who's the guy that's got all the airplanes on nbc? i love him. >> tom costello. >> tom costello, yeah, costello! and he's like, this is what happened to the plane. i hope he brought models. >> is he going to bring a drone in. >> my dad worked for lockheed, and i never thought it was strange we had paintings of c-11s all over the house. and we had tie packs with bombers and everything.

and i'm serious, my dad was a lockheed guy and i would go to sunday school and -- >> a tank. >> not a tank, it was always death from above. >> everything you say is so brilliant, just a little tweak. tom costello is fabulous, i love him, but when he's doing that, he's channelling bob hager. >> hager is the model man? >> he's the one. >> well, they're both great. >> they are. after the break, "politico's" top stories of the morning, including michele bachmann saying she will soon finish off mitt romney. >> i guess they aren't in cahoots, i was wrong about that. >> you know who's great? bill karins. bill, we're not going to have snow on christmas in the northeast. but are we going to have sun at least? >> it's not going to be bad. it's going to be a nice christmas in many areas. if you're in new england, i got

a little sliver of hope tomorrow for a little bit of snow. we have active weather, a tornado watch in louisiana and mississippi, we had some serious storms rolling from houston and new orleans, eventually up to memphis, jackson, mississippi, about 6 to 10 inches of snow in denver has already fallen. now new england, we're very warm right now, it's another ridiculously warm morning, cooler air moving in during the day today and tonight. the storm i just showed you down in louisiana is going to come that way. it looks like tomorrow, most areas will be rain. but if you're in northern connecticut, maybe the berkshire, i think you're going to end with a little bit of snow tomorrow. even areas like boston. it's not a lot, but you may see some flakes to get you in the mood and feel. we're in the 50s in new york city. you're watching "morning joe" brewed by starbucks. let

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take a look at this footage. that's what he does. he chucks it. it's a plasma screen television. okay? this is a disturbing trend at fedex. check out this other security footage i just found. >> yeah. i think that's deserved. i hope they fixed your tv. 25 past the hour. time now to take a look at the morning papers. we begin with with one from our parade of papers. the dallas morning news says the faa is making its first set of rule changes to address pilot fatigue in nearly 50 years.

it comes after the 2009 crash of a colgan airplane near buffalo, new york, that killed 50 people. investigators believe neither pilot in that crash had slept well the night before after commuting long distances. >> i want to get back to this with steve rattner who is a pilot in a minute. bank of america agreed to pay a settlement to resolve a complaint against the countrywide mortgage unit. allegedly charged african-americans and hispanics higher fees and interest rates than it charged white customers with similar credit profiles. so you have been around planes for 20 to 25 years, it's a real love of yours, and so i'm sure you follow these stories more closely than everybody else. the 2009 story of this buffalo crash, colgan, one of the more horrifying stories. it's one of the first times that guys like me realized how little those pilots made and the terrible lives that they lived.

and since that 2009 crash, i haven't gone on one of these small connecting flights without being scared. and yet, congress hasn't stepped up and made the big changes they need to make. i know that they're talking about pilot fatigue. but how about making those smaller characters live by the same tough standards that the bigger carriers. >> it's pilot fatigue, pilot training. those are obviously the youngest pilots trying to make their way up, some of them have a few hundred hours. up on martha's vineyard where i go and nantucket, i fly these 25-year-old, 30-year-old planes with a twin pilot in foggy conditions, which is really kind of crazy. and, yeah, it's -- that crash in buffalo was pure pilot error. they got ice on the wings, they were tired, they didn't know what to do, pulled the plane up instead of pushing it down and boom into the ground they went. >> that's something that you -- you if you were in that situation.

just being a private aviator without carrying the lives of 50, 60 people, you would have known in that situation. anybody that had been around the northeast flying in the northeast would've known in that situation take it down, increase the speed, right? going over the wings? >> it's the first thing you're trained in -- >> and i'm not knocking these pilots, they were put in a terrible position. that they weren't ready for. >> no, i think the lady co-pilot had flown in somewhere, she had a few hours to sleep, had to get into buffalo, there was a snowstorm, they were trying to get home. it was exactly the wrong circumstances. >> and she even said on the black box, boy, i sure would like to have more training in the northeast under these conditions. >> exactly. >> in the future. >> i'm sorry. let's go to politico right now. we're done with our aviation moment with steve rattner with pilot steve. >> all right. with us now we have the executive editor for "politico" jim vandehei here with the

morning playbook, or as snl put it, reverend al in your words. >> jim vandeheho. >> i liked it. >> what's politico's top headline this morning? something about romney and a bloody nose? >> right, basically talking to folks who have been involved in these campaigns for years, and looking at how the rise of newt has helped mitt romney because it's forcing him to toughen up and go on the attack and learn to take an attack. and if you think about the romney campaign over the last week, that's what he's been doing after sitting in hibernation for six months as far as engaging other republican candidates directly. and romney is probably better for it today. newt is certainly not better for it today because i think he has taken the brunt of the attacks from mitt romney. and we've seen an appreciable decrease in his support in iowa and about three different polls now over the last four days. >> and we tease this story, michele bachmann is sounding extremely confident about her

chances against romney. >> right, she's saying she's going to offer that final blow against mitt romney. we don't know what that would be be. even if she's going to throw her support to someone else, i don't think she could tip it. and she says she's not going to get out of the race. and there's no evidence whatsoever she's having a big effect in iowa. like a lot of us thought she might because of her ties to the evangelical christian community. the person who seems to be benefitting from that constituency in the last week or two is rick santorum who spent a lot of time, more than anyone else on the ground and probably could surprise people come caucus day. >> jim, the story today. we've been talking about it and you can just sense this coming. a new poll out showing that ron paul's in first place. a "wall street journal" editorial, a fierce editorial by dorothy robinowits, examining his questionable stories

throughout the years about the united states' relationship with the rest of the world. as well as this cnn story where he stormed off in an interview about the past newsletters that may have been racist and anti-semitic. politico's going to be writing about ron, aren't they? >> we have for the last couple of weeks and throughout the campaign. >> you've been ignoring him. you don't give him the credit he deserves. no, you're part of the conspiracy. >> we don't have time to ignore him -- >> your last name's not vandehei, it's bill the -- what is it? a build a -- >> build a bear? >> you're jim bildaberg. it's a one world conspiracy. >> there is no conspiracy. people have been writing about him because he's consistent. he's at about 15% in the polls, he's not going to go much higher or lower because of this

onslaught of coverage either. his supporters love him because he's a libertarian. they like the fact that he has views that a lot of americans don't like. they think he's consistent, and it's why he's a real threat in iowa. there's a lot of people on the ground in iowa who think he has a legitimate chance of winning in iowa. no one thinks that it would extend far beyond that. but if it does, it really kind of messes up the race to have him winning in iowa. >> we have to go, but he could win new hampshire, couldn't he? >> he could not win new hampshire. >> there you go. he's trying to keep the man down. >> trying to keep the man down. >> jim buildaberg vandehei. >> happy holidays. >> would you believe this man has gone as far as tearing stickers off the bumpers of cars?

and he voted for george mcgovern for president. >> i'm sure that's true. >> merry christmas to you, mika. joe, you have a good holiday. >> on easy rider, i'm a faithful follower. >> okay. >> i don't even have a garage. >> and carry drones to sunday school. >> jim vandiheho. >> okay. so let me just say, for those of you who don't know, that was the worst out of control -- >> do yourself a favor, download charlie daniels bands uneasy rider on itunes now. you remember -- i guess you're the only one who remembers this song. >> i love this song. >> oh, it is unbelievable. >> i'll be quiet. >> yet i live in 1972. >> i know. >> it's a sad, sad -- >> one of your nice qualities. >> i worked for bill clinton

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all right. 38 past the hour. >> do you think t.j.'s the best director ever? >> well, after that moon shine thing, i don't know what to think. >> i know. very troubling. >> lost in his own confusion. i think that job's one where you're supposed to make quick decisions and make good ones. >> it's very troubling. >> wes moore joins us. >> "way too early" in the house. >> how is that? >> it's early. >> we're going to get this story in. there are troubling signs out of iraq this morning where a wave of violence has killed at least 57 people in the capital. health officials say an additional 200 people were wounded. the coordinated attacks make up the worst violence to hit baghdad in months. it comes amid a fresh political crisis in the country with the

shiite led government accusing the sunni vice president to run a hit squad to target officials there, and how quickly after we -- i mean -- >> and there are going to be some neo cons on the hill that say this proves our point. i think it proves my point and other conservatives' point that, wes, we have sacrificed for eight years, our troops have given their all over 4,000 killed, over $1 trillion spent, and yet the day we leave, these leaders, these bone heads arrest the sunni vice president and just tear apart the coalition which leads to this. after eight years. they couldn't wait 24 hours. we can't transform iraq. we can't transform afghanistan. it is the height of arrogance. and what happens the day we leave afghanistan? whether it's five years or ten years, the same thing. >> the challenge we have in iraq is this. we're asking the sunnis and the

shiites and the kurds and all the other groups to come together and form this cohesive government and country, we're asking them to do something they've never done before. so by thinking that having five or six brigades of military forces, of coalition forces somehow going to prompt that i think was naive. >> it's a waiting game. >> it's a waiting game. >> and it's the same thing with afghanistan, we've got the finger in the dam. we can stay there for 15 years, 20 years, maybe we can stop the flooding, but we're going to have to go home at some point, and when we do, the water's going to rush in. >> what happened was we used a whole lot of u.s. resources to train up the iraqi forces, train up the iraqi special forces doing the same thing in afghanistan so the problem becomes as we begin to redeploy our troops and bring our troops home, we have better trained, more equipped iraqis who are now as you're seeing here in the case of al maliki who

essentially has become this glorified dictator going after other tribes in iraq. >> and after all of our sacrifice, within 24 hours of our troops leaving, maliki in effect, a shiite undercuts the sunni vice president, tries to arrest him, he's on the run, the attacks start. >> yeah. right away. >> these people. >> and we haven't even talked about what might happen between iran and iraq, and the possibility of them getting together and becoming closer. >> we'll talk to my father about this next hour. >> i hope he has an opinion on it. >> are there signs the economy is improving? steve rattner takes us inside his new charts. we'll be right back. this new at&t 4g lte is fast.

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the must read opinion pages. we're going to read one. the endorsement by the "concord monitor" and then we'll get to steve's charts about the president's approval ratings. >> an important paper in new hampshire. >> he has a track record as governor of bringing all sides together to create an economic climate that has helped his state prosper. combine the foreign policy experience of all other candidates in the race and huntsman would top it. he has played the game at its highest level, serving first as ambassador to singapore, then as a trade representative on behalf of the united states at the united nations. and at obama's request, as the united states ambassador to china. huntsman's depth of experience, maturi maturity, sincerity, and ability to work toward a common goal with political opponents make him the republicans' best chance to face president obama in 2012. >> and he can play piano on david letterman. we'll see what happens. >> yeah, we'll see. it seems the party's looking at

other things, which is, whatever, their call. >> it's everybody's turn. and you want your turn to come right before the election. >> that's true. so you have a couple of charts and you're looking at the president's approval ratings. >> so you guys have been talking about how the president's doing a little bit better. let's start by putting that in some historical perspective. and you can see here, the president's pretty steady decline down in the september, august period of the summer and now back up to 46.5%. this is clear politics. >> combination. >> combination, you get rid of these anomalies. he had gaby giffords, osama bin laden, but essentially it was a straight track down until the summer and now he's coming back up. >> let me ask you, first of all, 46.5% given everything, pretty good numbers, i think. >> well, exactly. and just to segue to the next chart because one of the things i've enjoyed watching is who gets blamed for the economy. and interestingly, obama is only down here at 12%, the number one

culprit is still bush, congress is still a culprit, wall street, and then a bunch of others. and so what is interesting, i think, about this is the american people have been able to make some disconnection between the state of the economy and the blame for the economy and not blamed obama. now, it's also true if you look at this poll back over time, it has moved against obama. if you go back to september of '10, that 12% was 5% and this 22% was 37%. so over time, people have started to shift the blame toward obama and the question will be a year from now who they're blaming. but now part of why he's at that approval rating with 8.6% unemployment is the fact that people recognize this is a much more complicated story. >> but if i'm the president and i've been president for three years and the economy is the way it is and only 1 in 10 voters are blaming me for the economy, i'm taking that and running. >> absolutely. and i think people rightfully say there are a lot of factors.

but i think what's also helpful is that a lot of the people that appear to be the ones that might oppose it, i'm talking about the top tier have weathered themselves to the people who blame for the economic problems. when you look at the settlement with bank of america that is unprecedented in terms of the amount around racial profiling, imagine what that does in the community of his base. not only blacks and latinos, but a lot of people where a huge bank is admitting, yes, we profiled people, and yes, we were unfair, and you are now going to have republican candidates coming out, we can't touch the top 1% and we're against this. so it only exacerbates those that want to support the president like me. >> like you. because i know people like you -- you've got to feel great about the fact that this president refuses to take any money from wall street. he didn't take any money in '08, he didn't take -- oh, wait a

second. >> you should've learned in sunday school -- >> that's not true. >> just because -- >> it's also -- >> just because someone donates -- >> hold on, the reverend's preaching. >> just because someone donates to church does not mean they preach the sermon. the question is what they get for donating. and the president has taken on wall street. >> that's why we have the reverend here. >> i don't know anyone else who has, do you? >> and you don't want to compare romney's donations to the president's on wall street. watch "politics nation," i'll give you the figures. that was a shameless plug. >> that's okay. >> 6:00 p.m. eastern, 3:00 p.m. pacific. >> take us through the next charts which look at economic confidence and consumer sentiment. >> the question is why is his approval doing better? consumer confidence is one reason. we had the terrible situation in the summer thanks to our beloved congress as well as the fears of a double-dip recession. and since then, he's moved up steadily, not a great reading,

but moving in the right direction. another way to look at this would be to look at consumer sentiment on the next chart. >> yep. it's coming. it's coming. >> which will also show you this huge drop. we talked about the biggest drop ever since hurricane katrina, he'd been toddling along here. >> what does that mean? consumer sentiment? >> how consumers feel about the economy. do they feel confident? are they out there? >> what's the difference between this number and the last number? >> the question of how -- >> confidence versus -- >> one is confidence in the economy and how you feel the economy's going to do on the other side and how do you feel about buying things? >> i'm interested in the next two and what they mean. unemployment insurance initial claims. >> new claims for unemployment insurance is a leading indicator. gives you an idea of what will happen with the monthly job numbers. now at the lowest level since some time in 2008. >> okay. >> and at a level where i suspect that the next jobs number, which will come out right between iowa and new hampshire will probably be a decent one. not great, but decent.

>> where do you stand? i remember when the numbers jumped from 9% to 8.6%, i was happy. because i cheer for america. i have been in a family with an unemployed, you know, father, i like seeing people get back -- but i was immediately shouted down from a lot of people on the right going oh, those numbers are ridiculous, you're a fool, et cetera, et cetera, and it's just because people stopped looking for work. since that number, we've had weekly jobless claims that have also been hopeful. don't we have a reason to hope that this 8.6% could be 8.4% or 8.2%? >> both sides are right. people are dropping out of the workforce, the 8.6% isn't as good as it looks. but at the same time, the jobs picture has been improving slowly. it won't be great next year, but it will be moving in the right direction. >> we have to go, but housing, i'm fascinated by this. we don't talk about it enough. >> housing hit the highest level in several years 685,000 housing

starts, and again, a very strong number. a lot of it is apartments and multi-family. people need places to live, they want to rent apartments and people are building them. >> that's good news. >> steve rattner, thank you so much. news you can't use. >> who's doing that? is funny man wes going to do it? >> i thought we'd do it, but wes can do it. we'll have wes do it. i wouldn't do that. get married? no, i wouldn't use that single miles credit card. nice ring. knock it off. ignore him. with the capital one venture card you earn... double miles on every purchase. [ sharon ] 3d is so real larry. i'm right here larry. if you're not earning double miles... you're settling for half. really? a plaid tie? what, are we in prep school? [ male announcer ] get the venture card at capitalone.com and earn double miles on every purchase every day. what's in your wallet? i was gonna say that. uh huh... nyqui tylenol: me, too. and cougnasal congestion.ers?

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so jon huntsman has literally tried everything to try to get people to notice him. he's a successful governor, i speak mandarin, and he says none of that's working. >> set his hair on fire. nothing's worked. >> this may do it. he was on letterman last night. when he was on letterman, david letterman asked him to go over and play the organ to show him his skills on the piano. and take a look at this. >> is it possible for you to do a little something at the organ with paul? i'd love to hear it. run right over there. jon huntsman, sure. let's go. >> it's like -- ♪ >> oh, my goodness. ♪

♪ go, go, go ♪ go, johnny, go ♪ go, johnny go ♪ go, johnny go, go ♪ johnny be good >> there you go. you said he may not be good enough to play in your church, but he can play -- >> the president's reelection inaugural. >> he was really good. >> all right. reverend al, thank you so much. >> thank you. >> and make sure you catch the 2011 revvy awards on msnbc's "politics nation." >> i decide, we have a panel, we talk about the news stories news makers of the year, good and

bad, you don't want to miss it. i anoint the good and the bad, my panel, everyone from michael steele to -- >> can't wait. >> i have a ticket for mika. i'm still debating about joe. joe's kind of rambunctious when he disagrees. >> that hurts. merry christmas. >> one baptist to another. >> amen, brother. coming up in the green room, carl bernstein, another good southern baptist. we'll be back in a minute.

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s. pursuant to section 3b of 493 the house stands adjourned until friday, 10:00 a.m. -- >> mr. speaker, mr. speaker. >> we'd like to ask for unanimous consent that we bring up the bill to extend the tax cut for 160 million americans as you walk off the floor, mr. speaker, you're walking out, you're walking away just as so many republicans have walked away from middle class taxpayers. >> okay. welcome back to "morning joe." look at that beautiful sight of washington, d.c. as the sun -- >> steny was a little upset. >> steny was making the point. >> he was. >> there's not much more to say at this point. >> which is? >> republicans are walking away and not giving the middle class the tax cut -- >> well, they're right on the merits, just wrong on the timing

and what you have to do to get something done before the end of the year. >> pretty tone deaf politically. >> how horrible that they're right, but it doesn't sound right. >> they would have been right if it had been earlier. >> that's the point. >> where they are now -- >> do you really want to go there right now? >> is a truly awful place that highlights what clowns they are -- >> you can't call somebody a clown for doing what steve rattner, i'm going to put you in with jeffrey sachs, tom friedman say fiscally is probably the right thing to do. even if politically -- >> had they done it at the right time, absolutely. >> you calling them clowns for being right, carl? >> no, clowns for not following a schedule that would've made sense for the american people, that we would've had an on-time budget, a sensible way to address entitlements, and what's going to happen now -- >> let me write that down. on time budget. >> meaning the day before --

>> hold on a second. >> this is probably not a good point to bring up, democrats -- >> on time budget, like the democrats who haven't had a budget in over 900 days. >> i'm not suggesting that the democrats are much better on the question of timing. >> no. >> and if what we're going to see now is that in february obama will be on time. he's going to introduce a budget -- >> that's going to be exciting. >> it is. >> it's going to have big entitlement votes. >> do you think it'll get one vote this time? >> i think what he's going to do is as these numbers show is he is seizing the high ground in this debate. he's going to have entitlement cuts and force democrats to accept them. and then -- >> you really think so? because if he does that -- >> yes. >> all i've been asking -- >> it's going to be the center piece. >> i'm a simple man. if that is a center piece of his campaign, i will send a check. i will write a check if he has -- if he has meaningful

medicare and social security and medicaid reform -- >> carl, i'm not sure we're on the same electromagnetic wave at the moment. >> he's not going to do it. >> he's going to campaign on cutting entitlements after having gone to kansas city and campaigned -- >> as long as there is a tax increase, he's going to move toward simpson/bowles. as long as there is tax increases of a major sort on the top 1%, you don't think that's a real possibility? >> if he did that, that would be a great surprise. >> i agree. >> a great policy. >> i think he's going to surprise people. i think there's some evidence in the numbers that have already gone over to omb. >> you know, i actually praise the president for getting out of iraq. i would love to praise the president for being responsible on entitlement programs. i don't think i'm going to have that opportunity. so let's have an over, under bet here on the president's budget. because carl brings up a good point. the republicans have botched the timing of this, that the

democrats haven't had a budget in over 900 days. the president put his budget on the floor last year, got zero votes. what is the over, under on the president's budget in february? because he's got to put one out there. >> on the dates or the votes? >> on the number of votes he gets, maybe, five, six out of 100? >> nine. >> it is such a cowardly institution. >> yeah. if carl is correct and the president puts forward a budget that proposes major entitlement cuts. >> oh, that'll be historic. >> that'll lower my number to three. >> i'm telling you, it's one of the great ironies here in this budget battle. the bigger -- and steve, i read articles from people who had been really digging in and talking to members of congress actually the bigger the plan, the more sweeping the idea, the more congressmen and senators who are willing to throw their lot in. if it's going to be big like

carl's talking about. if we're going to have tax reform, medicare reform, and everybody's holding hands when they jump off the cliff, i may be a part of that. >> there was a school of thought if they had gotten a large group together, the gang of six, the 150 people who signed the letter, members of the deficit commission, super committee, there was a thought it could have gotten to be bigger. but we're so far away from that. i think the -- >> in an election year? it doesn't make any sense. >> it's not going to happen in an election year, and frankly the budget of any president in the election year is a political document. it's a platform statement. it's not a budget. >> carl, real quick? >> that's my point, that it is a political statement and he's going to seize the high -- i base this on talking to some people that i think you're going to see he's going to seize the high ground and say, look, it's time we finally do what the american people want. we want entitlements cut in a meaningful way, we want the top 1% to start paying their fair share.

let's go at it. >> this will all be happening while we're broadcasting from iowa, new hampshire, and south carolina, so it'll be an interesting contrast. the caucuses are less than two weeks away. ron paul sitting atop the latest iowa state university poll. >> carl's a big ron paul supporter. >> i'm in his ad from this very desk saying newt gingrich is a serial hypocrite and he put it in the ad. >> do you get royalties for that? >> i do. in fact i got an e-mail from somebody -- >> msnbc should get royalties because all of his ron paul's clips are off of msnbc. >> it kind of goes around the table. >> newt gingrich trails paul by three points, and still within the margin of error. and mitt romney is in third place, ten points behind ron paul, rick perry in fourth with 11%, michele bachmann and rick santorum both in single digits.

>> the "wall street journal" has a blistering editorial talking about ron paul's world view on america and foreign policy. and also john heilemann, another dust-up going on out there that mika's going to read in a second about past news letters. but right now, this seems to be ron paul's time. you go to the top of the polls, people start looking really closely at what you've done. >> back in 2008, david plouffs said everybody gets their time in the barrel. in the spring of 2008, it was his time in the barrel. and when it looks like you're rising, that's when your time in the barrel comes and you start getting shot at like a fish in there and that's what's happening with ron paul. >> there's stuff to work with. is it baggage or real attacks? ron paul is facing new scrutiny as reports resurfaced that racist newsletters were sent

under the congressman's name in the early 1990s. paul got testy while defending himself during an interview with cnn. >> i didn't write them, that's it. >> you made money off of them? >> i was still practicing medicine, that's probably why i wasn't a very good publisher because i had to make a living. >> there were reports you made almost $1 million off of them in 1993. >> i'd like to see that money. >> you read them, but didn't do anything about it at the time. >> i never read that stuff. i was probably aware of it ten years after it was written. and it's been going on 20 years that people have pestered me about this. and cnn does it every single time. when are you going to wear yourself out? >> no, but -- is it legitimate? is it a legitimate question to ask that something went out in your name -- >> and when you get the answer, it's legitimate that you sort of take the answers i give. >> these things are pretty incendiary. >> because of people like you. >> no, no, no, come on.

some of the stuff was very incendiary and saying that in 1993 the israelis were responsible for the bombing of the world trade center, that kind of stuff. >> yeah. good-bye. >> you can see the media storm coming together here, mika. the day he rises to the top in the polls, 27%, seems to be moving up. you've got him yanking off a microphone, which is just made for a media storm. >> of course. >> these newsletters coming out and the "wall street journal" editorial. it's a one, two, three punch. it's tough times. >> absolutely. he's on the top of the polls in iowa. the question is, what happens if he wins iowa? does that matter for a candidacy down the road? according to the state's republican governor terry branstad, people are going to look at who comes in second and who comes in third. if mitt romney comes in a strong second, it definitely helps him going into new hampshire and the other states. >> john heilemann, can you name

one time when a politician told people not to vote for another politician. an incumbent in a situation like this where it worked? he might as well just bark at waves. seriously. >> i think it's interesting, terry branstad is neutral in this race and he's said please don't pay attention to ron paul and a couple of weeks ago said newt gingrich didn't have the temperament. effectively, he's not going to endorse mitt romney, but sounds like he's putting his thumb on the scale. >> no doubt about it. let's go to manchester, new hampshire, with nbc chief white house correspondent and host of "the daily rundown," chuck todd. my goodness, i'm sure you've seen all of the ron paul -- all of the ron paul news this morning. >> he had a big interview with mitt this morning. >> ron paul seems to be rising in iowa. does that translate in new hampshire where you are? >> reporter: well, what's interesting is when you talk to

the campaigns privately, they're seeing a little movement for paul here, not as much as iowa. but it's more of a downward movement for newt, right? and it's sort of paul's in second place by default. he's sitting there in that mid teens, sometimes creeping up to 16% to 17%, and that counts for second place right now. romney has gotten his lead back when you talk to folks polling in this state that he's getting back to where he was say a month and a half ago sitting right around 40. that's where you're seeing a little bit of that. it's not like iowa. remember, he can change the electorate in iowa because you can bring in people who aren't republicans and that's what makes them so potent, particularly in caucus states. >> do you see a scenario by which romney is surprised? does it look like three weeks out that new hampshire is nailed down for mitt romney? >> reporter: i don't ever want

to say that new hampshire's nailed down, we've seen what it's done in the past, but the romney campaign has a completely different strategy than they did four years ago. four years ago they were trying to do both, you know, trying to -- they were sort of overemphasizing iowa, and they let new hampshire slip, and they let it slip away. and it's this time, their whole schedule, the first bus tour he's doing, it's here in new hampshire. even next week, he'll do a little iowa, com back to new hampshire. in fact, the weekend before iowa, from what i understand, he may end up spending half of his time in new hampshire, half his time in iowa. what they don't want, they believe they have to win new hampshire, it's a must-win under any circumstances they get the nomination, it means winning new hampshire. and he seems to be more focused on it. >> mika, do you see things coming together -- i think john said it yesterday, it seems like things are coming -- a lot of moving pieces are coming

together that will allow mitt romney to shut this thing down pretty quickly. >> and you could hand it to his campaign that probably exercised a great deal of discipline and is now, you know, letting him out and showing him right at the right time putting himself forward. there was a dust up between mitt romney and newt gingrich thanks to chuck todd. >> he's a troublemaker. >> i'm going to show a portion of your interview with mitt romney and newt gingrich's response. they traded fire. take a look. >> i know that the speaker would like to say, look, we shouldn't have any negativity. look, if you can't handle the heat in this little kitchen, the heat that's going to come from obama's hell's kitchen is going to be a lot hotter. we as a republican party and a candidate we need to show we can stand up to the barrage coming from the obama world. >> what do you have to say in response of that? can you stand the heat in the kitchen next to president obama? >> he's kidding, of course.

look. i'll tell you what. if he wants to test the heat, i'll meet him anywhere in iowa next week one-on-one 90 minutes, no moderator, just a time keeper. he wants to try out the kitchen, i'll debate him and we'll bring the "washington post" as an indication that his ad is filled with lies and he can defend them. let's test the kitchen. i'm happy, i'll go in the kitchen. if he'd like to come play in the kitchen? i don't think so. i don't think he wants to do anything but hide over here and pretend it's not his fault that he's flooding the people of iowa with falsehoods. >> that's a direct challenge. >> that's a challenge i'd like to point out, and say nothing, please, especially you, heilemann. but jon huntsman has offered a debate to both of those candidates and neither of them -- they would not want to debate him. >> newt -- >> no, one-on-one like that? i'd love to see it. >> there's a strategy involved

here and that is that we've got one candidate, romney, who wants to stay above the fray and look presidential and that's what we're seeing. >> who got the better of the exchange? >> reporter: i think romney did. and remember, this all started with your interview, guys, when he was talking about the super pacs and newt didn't like that answer and then so when i asked romney about it, he said, well, he can't take this. the romney people know what they're doing. they know if you poke newt long enough, he'll eventually get upset. i mean, how many times did newt say the word kitchen? it sounded like -- i thought i was at an nba basketball game. no, no, no -- and he's like some power forward is yelling at the referee. you tell him to come to my kitchen, come to my kitchen. oh, my god, it's not a good moment. >> got anything to add to that, john? >> first of all, newt's constantly harping on how he's going to run a positive

campaign. any politician who says i will be positive, that's a candidate with no money who doesn't have enough money to campaign in a negative way. and the second thing, this is killing newt because he's talking constantly about process and these ads. not addressing the substance of the ads, all he's doing is talking about how horrible it is -- there's no positive message coming out of the campaign and there's no real defense on the substance. >> steve rattner, if you're getting hammered by all sides, what else do you do? >> it's exactly what you have to do. >> defend yourself. newt can't sit there talking about his five-point plan to lower marginal tax rates, he's got to defend himself from a steady barrage of attacks. >> he's got to defend himself, but one of his problems is he doesn't have enough money and he's fighting against this huge romney machine. >> and he can defend himself on the substance as opposed to the mere negativity. >> chuck, what's going to be happening with the "daily rundown" today. any candidates playing the piano

for you? >> i don't have the piano. i was very impressed. i'm told that's his second best song that he plays that he's got some other ones that huntsman plays very well. we're going to run some highlights of that. but my man chris is holding down the fort after this. i'm going to be on an airplane. >> question for chuck. any way that huntsman can really move in this thing in new hampshire, chuck? or is he a dead duck at this point? >> reporter: you know, the one angle i heard on this was, you know, if it's -- if romney can pull off iowa say in a very narrow 25%, 22%, or something like that, there might be a sort of distant second place that huntsman could grab because there is some old time new hampshire folks who feel as if, hey, you know what? this guy did take us seriously and he might get some of that vote. but nobody sees a surge coming from huntsman. simply maybe hanging in there in

the mid teens. >> i would love to see the three. >> the editorial's very interesting and the question is does it have any real affect? i guess the answer is no. >> it certainly helped -- all the editorial endorsements four ar state. >> senator dick durbin will be here onset also dr. brzezinski. and kelly o'donnell on capitol hill. you're watching "morning joe" brewed by starbucks. i can't figure out what to get for my husband. easy. name some things that aren't on your list. jumper cables, camo anything, a power drill -- ooh! [ male announcer ] the only place to go for every guy on your christmas list with great deals throughout the store. walmart.

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♪ the uncertainty that we have to eliminate is the uncertainty the americans have about whether or not their taxes are going up on january 1st. there's a bipartisan compromise available to make sure that doesn't happen. just take it. >> our republicans getting killed right now in public opinion? there is no question.

are we on a bad path as it relates to public policy? no question. both republicans and democrats have agreed that this is going to happen. and probably the best thing to happen now is just to get it over with. >> yeah. they were trying to get the speaker, the acting speaker i should say to come back to the podium. >> where is speaker scarborough? >> he has left. joe? excuse me, joe. >> mr. speaker. >> middle class americans are waiting. nbc news capitol hill correspondent kelly o'donnell joins us live with the very latest on the payroll tax cut negotiations which seem to be going south and it seems to be a losing lose battle for the republicans, am i wrong? >> reporter: well, in all of the time we have waiting for some sort of a breakthrough, it gives everybody a chance to kind of dissect how this is playing out. and you have parties battling for this perception of certainty, democrats feel do the two-month extension, everyone then knows there won't be a lapse of the unemployment benefits or a hike in the payroll tax cut on january 1st.

republicans have argued make it a yearlong deal. but we see how it's playing out. republicans have been here, they will be here again today. we'll have another chance to see them seated at a table on camera with no democrats at the table beside them. we're on the eve of christmas. most people don't expect any movement before the holiday. it's kept the president in town. there's kind of a question what judgment call will the white house make, can he get to hawaii just even for the christmas weekend and come back or stay here and just wait it out? so the likely end game most people tell us will happen some time next week. and as you heard senator corker say, people expect there'll be some kind of deal. so is it a rip the band-aid off fold for the republicans? or is there a way democrats could maybe give them some sort of add-on, like agree, do the two month and we'll commit to a one-year process, something where they can save some face and find a way out. the hard part is the votes.

the leadership might be willing to make a deal, the hard part is getting the votes. >> steve rattner? >> kelly, the compromise you talked about is the only realistic juvenile court come from this. but how do they handle the logistics? it's christmas, the end of the year is coming, how do they actually get this thing done? >> reporter: well, one things republicans are saying is we shouldn't look at this because it's an inconvenient time of year to say that we shouldn't be working. many americans are working their jobs. so they've put house members on 24-hour notice to come back for a potential vote. on the senate side, things can be done with unanimous consent, you get agreement from leadership, you don't have to have everyone back, but to really resolve it, you'll have to have people come back to town. and that disruption is more of the process we've seen. there are various end game scenarios, we don't no which one will ultimately win the day. >> kelly o'donnell, thank you so much. good luck covering that. coming up, a new round of

foreign policy challenges for the white house. we'll talk to doctors brzezinski and miklaszewski coming up. [ male announcer ] you are a business pro.

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30 past the hour. welcome back to "morning joe." a live look at the beautiful shot of the white house. and joining us now from washington. former national security adviser for president carter, dr. brzezinski, author of the upcoming book "strategic vision," america and the crisis of global power. that's out in a month. >> my library -- my brzezinski library will grow. >> it will. how many do you have? >> i've got about eight or nine. >> i have a new one for you, it's called "strategic vision." and also with us onset, jim miklaszewski. >> let's begin with you. new report on pakistan, air strike that killed 24 -- give us the details. >> well, the u.s. military investigation into this has been completed. it's been given to the

commander. and what it found is here's the key point to what it found. that night in october, u.s. special operations and afghan forces were conducting an operation along the afghan border and took some fire from across the border. now, there are coordination centers that allow the militaries of both sides pak and u.s. to talk to each other. and there were communications. but when the americans phoned in the information to the pakistanis about the sight from which they were taking fire, they gave them the wrong coordinates, they gave them something nine miles away, so the pakistani on duty said, not our guys, not a problem, boom, they attacked killed 24 pakistanis. there are going to be mea culpas all over the place. the pakistanis have cut off the flow of the vital supplies to our forces in afghanistan, about 70% of what they need comes through pakistan, and the u.s.

was talking a good game about, oh, we can get it from other -- >> no, it is a vital pipeline. >> dr. brzezinski, a tortured relationship becomes even more complex. what do we do moving forward? >> try to extricate ourselves as best we can. we have to in effect a regional umbrella for solving this problem. i don't think we and the pakistanis can any more resolve it on our own. >> this is an ongoing battle, of course, we've got that crisis, seems like crises are popping up all over the globe now. obviously in syria. but what is your take on what has happened in iraq over the past 48 hours since u.s. troops moved out? >> we are beginning to face the reality of what we have accomplished. namely we have destabilized iraq. we have destroyed it as a state. we have reignited sectarian conflicts, we have contributed

to ethnic distinctions between the kurds and the iraqis. we have a problem on our hands, which we didn't solve by war. and which we cannot resolve anymore because we can't continue the war indefinitely. it's a contribution to greater middle eastern instability. >> you have long chided those who were arrogant enough to believe that every country across the globe wants to remake themselves in america's image. and i remember pulitzer prize winner a few years back making the suggestion to you and you laughing him off the set. is this not yet another example after eight years, after 4,000 plus deaths, after $1 trillion invested in iraq, we leave and within 24 hours they revert to form? >> well, they revert to form which has preexisted. >> right. >> and you know, we're sort of stuck with it. we shouldn't have undertaken that war, but that's water over

the dam. i think we now have to ask ourselves, can we contribute in any meaningful way to greater stability in the middle east? and my short answer, first of all, is a negative one. let's not start another war. because there are some people who are overtly arguing now, overtly, that we should start a war with iran. i don't think that's going to be exactly a very constructive contribution to greater middle eastern stability. >> as we look across the globe ten years after many were declaring the united states of america to be the -- to basically be the king of all that we could see, we talk about pakistan and you bring up the real -- the reality, the limits that we face. north korea, the limits that we face, iraq, the limits that we face, we now turn to syria. of course, bloodshed escalating in syria. is this another example of where

the united states ten years later has to be a neutral observer in what's going on there? >> well, i think we're facing two sort of fundamental realities. the first is that the world itself is becoming more complexed, more aroused. i write in my book about the phenomenon of global political awakening, which is creating this situation of stirring masses, unrest, national conflicts and so forth. so if you look around the world, you find asia rising in terms of global power, but also conflicts within asia, actual political conflicts and military confli s conflicts. the area we're talking about, the middle east, we don't need to say more. look at the problems of europe, fragmentation possibly weakening. all of that is a symptom of global turmoil connected with the decline of american authority and standing. and i'm sad to say, very sad to say that what we welcome 20 years ago, namely the

dissolution of the soviet union and the unique opportunity that america had to shape the world in a constructive fashion that we have failed to take advantage of that opportunity. and now we're beginning to see the cumulative costs of that failure. and starting wars in the middle east was not the solution ten years ago. it's not a solution two or three hence. >> steve rattner's here with a question. >> dr. brzezinski, taking that point we don't want to start more wars in the middle east. every one of our leaders seems committed to the idea of iran not getting nuclear wes. how can we achieve that short of some kind of military intervention of one kind or another? >> well, i tried to address that in my book, and it seems to me, first of all, we have to be more judicious about what we say regarding the iranian nuclear program. the correction recently issued to secretary panetta's statements on the subject is a very good guide. we have some indications that they are very serious about acquiring a nuclear we, but they

haven't crossed the threshold. the iaea, the international agency is still conducting inspections and so forth. so the threshold has not been crossed, first of all, which means secondly we ought to be very careful how we relate to the iranians. we should press them to abandon the program, we should punish them if they do not, but we should not narrow our options. if we go so far down the road of compulsion that we have no other choice than to use the force or simply giving up, then we are in very bad situation. thirdly, we ought to increasingly clarify the fact that no matter what the iranians accomplish in the nuclear area, that we have the power to deter them and we have the power to react, not if we are threatened by them, but if anyone in the middle east is threatened by them. whether the arab countries or israel. we can treat that as a threat to ourselves. and last but not least, if push comes to shove and the force was to be used, we cannot do it

again alone as bush did in iraq. we can only use force regarding iran if other major powers are prepared to go in with us and pay also the political price. because if we do it alone, we'll pay the price 100%. and countries like russia, like china, like india will be sitting there and rubbing their hands and just wondering how stupid can the americans be? >> miklaszewski. >> i'd like to follow up on -- >> by the way, miklaszewski, brzezins brzezinski, these are welsh names, right? >> actually, miklaszewski is irish, but -- following up on what dr. brzezinski said, it was a few weeks ago in a speech that while the secretary repeated america's commitment to not seeing iran develop a nuclear we, he also cautioned against jumping into the conclusion that that means military strikes.

and quite frankly, he took some fallout from that. and so it sounded as if this was a make-up in his interview with 60 minutes, and he sounded far more strident, far more bellicose that time around. and it seemed self-evident why they did that. then the next day, the joint chiefs of staff chairman, general martin dempsey said his fear is there will be a miscalculation on iran's part that the u.s. is not serious in terms of deterring them from obtaining a nuclear weapon. right now it's just saber rattling, but it could lead to the kind of miscalculations that brzezinski was talking about. >> and you talk about miscalculations, of course, sounds an awful lot like historians looking back to bush in 1991 with his communications with saddam hussein, there are some who suggest there was a miscalculation that saddam hussein read bush's body

language saying he could go into kuwait and not face consequences. the same fear with the pentagon? >> about iran? >> yes. >> most definitely. and quite frankly, sanctions, although they're starting to bite now, according to reports i read. but sanctions appear to be taking a bit of a bite. but the problem is, if iran even starts to get anywhere near development of a nuclear weapon, and quite frankly, experts i talk to say it's well over a year perhaps three years until that happens. the israelis are not going to wait until they can actually enrich uranium. >> i'm going to read part of your column, dad, from the "wall street journal" this month, and you guys can jump in with a question and it's sort of the focus of his book. a great power that allows itself to be preoccupied only with the problems today is likely to end up mired in the conflicts of yesterday. a great power must be guided by a longer range strategic vision. for the united states, the

central challenge over the next several decades will be to be revitalize itself while promoting a larger west and accommodating china's rising global status. a successful u.s. effort to enlarge the west making it the world's most stable and democratic zone would seek to combine power with principle. a cooperative larger west extending from north america and europe through eurasia by embracing russia and turkey all the way to japan and south korea would enhance the appeal of the west's core principles, thus encouraging the gradual emergence of a universal, democratic, political culture. >> dr. brzezinski, you talk about american leaders having to look beyond what's just right in front of them. but if you're a national security adviser this week for president obama, you have seen flash points obviously in pakistan and egypt, an election that's not turning out the way

some would want in north korea, in iraq, in syria, even in russia. so, so how do you sort through all that and keep the long-term strategic vision in front of you? >> well, in a way, the answer's obvious. you keep your eye on the problems. but at the same time, you do engage in strategic planning. in trying to develop some kind of a concept of the future. and the things that mika just read pertaining what we could be doing by 2025 if we overcome our domestic problems and fancy a foreign policy to the new realities, namely of a more stagnant west and more vibrant east. greater turmoil, political unrest, and so forth. and we ought to seize even momentary opportunities to chart a larger course. let me just share with you an idea i have right now. for example, regarding the future of the west. the future of the west is important to all of us.

not only because by share certain things in common, economic powers, standard of living, and all of that, but particular values, freedom, respect of a human being, for liberty. here's an opportunity for president obama. a great european, a great european, a visionary european has just died, havel. havel of the czech republic, one of the leaders against rising of soviet domination. i would love to see the president go to his funeral and rededicate america to the ideas and values that havel articulated. we need to revitalize the west to start with. and then we can deal more effectively with the problems of the middle east and strike a balance with the far east working closely with china and japan particularly. >> all right. dr. brzezinski, thank you so much. real quickly, i'm curious, you talked about concept of the future. what is the obama administration's concept of the future in foreign policy? >> well, i'm a little baffled these days because he gave some very good speeches when he was assuming the presidency.

but there hasn't been done much follow-up on it. in part i suspect largely because of the domestic paralysis, the domestic problems, the domestic divisions. so i give him some of an out on it, but i'm still a little disappointed. >> dr. zbignew brzezinski, dad, thank you. i'll see you, when's christmas eve? very soon. i can't wait. but until then, i'll be reading "strategic vision." i will be reading every word. >> it's going to be exciting around your house. >> you'll be quizzed on it. >> actually, you will. >> you will. you know, brzezinski, miklaszewski, they have to be proud of you. some good news, for millions of travelers, what the faa is doing to cut down on pilot fatigue. keep it here on "morning joe."

well, changes are coming to the nation's skies, faa has announced a set of tough new rules to ensure pilots get enough rest after investigators say pilot fatigue contributed to that crash of the passenger plane in buffalo nearly three years ago. we talked about him earlier today. we hope that he's brought some models. we were hoping that miklaszewski would've brought some models of missiles or humvees or something. he didn't do that. maybe tom costello. oh, wait, he's got the real thing behind him now. >> reporter: i've got some models back here. here are my models. pretty good, huh? >> those are big models. tom, you know, i have been scanning the papers over the past three years, and wondering why congress was taking so long, the faa was taking so long to

respond to the horrific events that all sort of lined up together to cause the crash of that colgan air flight going into buffalo on an icy night. any progress here? >> reporter: you know, you're an old washingtonian. the truth of the matter is, in terms of rule making this happened at warp speed when you consider the fact that congress got in involved, faa, pilots union. three years after 50 people died on that horrific crash, we see that the faa has moved forward with new rules. faa took a science-based approach, ook at what we know about sleep cycles, jet lag, working all hours of the days and night, and applied those science-based principals to the new rules. >> reporter: for the families of the people who died on colgan air flight outside buffalo three years ago a tribute to their tenacity and determination. >> these families, with

unimaginable heartbreak, turns that into a powerful commitment to save the lives of others. >> reporter: pie llot aierror u states and to blame. grueling work schedules for pilots, long distance commutes and exhaustion. the first faa rule change to address pilot fatigue in nearly 50 years, setting a maximum duty day of 9 to 14 hours depending where and when they're flying, maximum flying time nine to ten hours. pilots get a minimum of ten hours' rest time between flights, two hours more than the current rules with an opportunity of eight hours of one uninterrupted sleep and 30 consecutive hours of time-out per week. another change for pilots who may have commuted long distances. >> when they get in, they sign off on the flight plan, i am fitter to duty. >> reporter: investigators are believe neither pilot in the air

crash slept well the night before after commuting long distances cross-country. for three years the families of the crash victims pushed lawmakers, faa and airlines to address pilot fatigue. among the victims, beverly ecker eckert,s who husband died on 9/11. >> they are the motivator. we're not going away soon. >> reporter: pilots complain of fatigue every day and managing it says john cox makes flying the plane all that more challenging. >> it's staying ahead of the airplane, ensuring that all of the many details of a flight are done, done correctly, and done in a timely manner. the more fatigued you are, more difficult that becomes. >> reporter: i need to amend that report slightly, guys. i had a graphic error. the maximum flight time per day is eight to nine hours not nine to ten, eight to nine hours.

one group of airlines got a pass. cargo carriers announced they thought this was too expensive for them. u.p.s., fedex are all going to be exempt from the rule but the d.o.t. is hoping they will come along voluntary. >> thank you so much. greatly appreciate it. that is important. >> yeah. >> important. let me ask you, real quick, follow up on the last conversation, talking about limits of u.s. power and in part we've seen that in iraq and afghanistan and now talking about syria, pakistan, on and on. what's the feeling inside the pentagon? when there's an armed services committee it was the generals and the admirals the most conservative about the use of force. we can't go and micromanage social change across the globe. is that the attitude now? zplits still the attitude, they contend that given a military challenge, they can achieve it. i saw this manifest itself actually in the last time

secretary gates went to the so-called dialogues in bahrain, and he was getting hammered by all of the gulf states. his intent was to try to convince the gulf states to form their own sort of defensive alliance because the u.s. wasn't going to be there to protect them as they have been or at least put that umbrella up over them and some sense of security. and it got very contentious. that was the first time i saw it man test itself. now the concern, of course, is that after president obama stood up and said mubarak must go, many of the so-called allies in the gulf states, because it's anytime, who knows, but they started to wonder, is president obama going to say that about us? and so that's some of the concern within the u.s. military that i'm hearing and in the pentagon. and i'm not judging what the president said.

mubarak, obviously had to go. >> just reporting. >> but that's just the fact. >> jim miklaszewski, thank you very much. we'll be right back. [ laughing ] [ cat yodeling ] honey, check your email! [ cellphone chimes ] [ cat yodeling ] kids! [ cat yodeling ] sing, larry, sing! [ cat yodeling ] we should have got a cat. [ male announcer ] get low prices on gifts to stay connected. order your last-minute gifts at walmart-dot-com and get free same-day pickup on select items. save money. live better. walmart.

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into good morning. it is 8:00 on the east coast. as you take a live look at new york city. welcome back to "morning joe" back with us on set, john heilemann and reverend al sharpton and steve rattner. >> every candidate has their turn. >> that's true. >> last week -- >> lord know we learned that with herman cain. >> -- it was newt's turn. newt got absolutely savaged.

>> he did. >> i participated in some of that savagery. >> some say you were over the top and highly emotional. >> all of the media was over the top. guess -- i agree with what i said, just the sheer volume of it may have been a bit much. guess whose turn it is today? newt, his timing has passed. >> ron paul. >> ron paul. >> everybody gets their time in the barrel. >> and guess what? he's in the barrel right now. what ron paul thinks of america, absolutely devastating, devastating editorial by dorothy rabino rabinowitz. this is a shock, because she never speaks her mind. but savages ron paul, giving one example after another of how he has apologized october ma din

jad, iran, plays the united states of america for the death of 3,000 people on 9/11. this is what happens when you go to the top -- when ron paul's second or third place, all of his supporters can e-mail and tweet us, why don't you ever talk about ron? you hate america. it's a media conspiracy si. yeah, that's right. >> and, by the way, i am a libertarian leaning. you even attack me when i say nice things about ron paul. you want ron paul to be talked about. >> here you go. >> here you go, baby. this your week. bath in it because you've been complaining about it for four years. this is -- i've said nice things about ron paul. >> this is only half of the ron paul story because she really was talking about foreign policy. and he wants to apologize the fed, the income taxes, wants to cut $1 trillion from spending, abolish half of the government department. >> dude, when you start talking

domestic, i'm all about ron paul. >> you put up a brave fight. >> i'm all about ron paul. but -- >> it goes on though, a testy exchange on the air, which shows he's beginning to feel the heat. >> and also people wanted ron paul to be examined in the media and -- >> they're looking. >> they are looking. there were some comments made, racist comments in newsletters which he profited from. >> and that were written in his voice and that he previously claimed authorship of some though we don't know which. >> right. >> there's a little ambiguity. he's now denying he had anything to do with ones that said that gays were trying to poison the blood supply with aids he's saying he didn't write that. a few years ago he was claiming credit for some of the letters. >> ron paul supporters, and i have been positive towards you on many fronts, you wanted to be in the news, you're in the news.

mika, read the news. >> let's touch on, first, the latest numbers. iowa caucuses less than two weeks away and ron paul sits atop the latest iowa state university poll, 28% support. newt gingrich trails paul by three points, still within the margin of error. mitt romney is in third, ten points behind paul. rick perry, fourth place, 11% support michele bachmann, rick santorum, six digits. >> the person that took the poll, the main analysis guy for the polling organization said these numbers may be understated because ron paul supporters are younger, on cell phones but highly charged. do you agree with that? >> why he's drawing huge crowds. the only republican drawing huge crowds ron paul. drawing the big crowds on college campuses. activated young voters on the republican party who no one else is touching.

>> do the college kids go to the conduct cu caucuses instead of playing call of duty. >> in 2008, the argument was college students did not turn out for barack obama but they turns out in massive numbers. there is pr . >> playing call of duty. >> right now, it's looking pretty darn good for ron paul. >> it is also because, one of the things i learned in my ten days in iowa this month, he's the only -- those who despise him out there, and there are many party regularers in iowa who thinks if he wins the caucuses will destroy the caucuses. they concede he's the only one who has a traditional caucus operation throughout the state. no one es has thlse has that. >> looks like a -- >> with his rise in the polls, ron paul is facing scrutiny, as reporting resurfaced, and we touched on this at the top, about racist newsletters send

under the congressman's name back in the early 1990s. paul got testy defending himself during an interview with cnn. >> i didn't write them. i disavow them. that's it. >> but you made money off of them? >> i was still practicing medicine. that was probably why i wasn't a very good publisher because i had to make a living. >> there are reports you made almost $1 million off of them in 1993. >> who -- i'd like to see that money. >> so you read them but you didn't do anything about it at the time? >> i never read that stuff. i never read it. i was probably aware of it ten years after it was written, and it's been going on 20 years that people have pestered me about this. cnn does it every single time. >> well it's i legitimate -- wouldn't you say -- no -- is it legitimate? is it a legitimate question to ask that something went out with your name. >> when you get the answer it's legitimate you take the answers that i give. >> these things are pretty incendiary. >> because of people like you.

>> no, no, no. come on. some of the stuff was very incendiary, saying in 1993 the israelis were responsible for the bombing of the world trade center, that kind of stuff. so. >> good-bye. >> all right. that's one way to end an interview. hasn't happened to us, mika, though we've tried. explain just before we talk about this, has he taken credit for these writings in the past? >> well, he previously said that -- this was a newsletter written under his name, and the first person voice, as if he were speaking. previously he has said that he wrote some of them. not all of them, but some of them. he had taken response iblts for some. i'm not sure which. it was some time ago. >> back in the '90s. >> mid '96. there's some ambiguity who wrote these things. you know, joe, for politicians you were people wrote in your voice if you're a professional

politician. some people, including on the right are pointing out if you're going to criticize barack obama for his association with reverend wright, which people did, you should be able to criticize ron paul for whoever was writing his newsletter that will he was profiting from. >> they're in his name. >> yes, in his name and in his voice. >> it's actually a tighter fit with ron paul because they were in his name, he was selling them, he was making money off of them. >> well and in addition, i would say, you know this is true as a politician, even if you do not write them, most responsible politicians if something's being sent out untheir name in their voice approve them and that's not an issue he addressed. he must have seen them. >> there is a -- we need to explain here among ron paul supporters, there are some who will embrace his domestic agenda, embrace the idea of a smaller government. even if they don't agree with everything, and they have been

saying for sometime, with their eyes rolled -- and i know because a lot of people who, you know, that's my crowd, as far as small government libertarians who will roll their eyes, be concerns like dorothy about foreign policy but also, reverend al, will go away from an event saying there is always a strain of anti-semitism. i never heard the racism part but always a strain of anti-semitism there. >> well, i think when you read the statements in his name, the problem is that you are not dealing and with someone that has dealt with any forthright manner what happened. you can say something and later say, i shouldn't have said it, i apologize, you can say something and say i was misunderstood. >> we've all done that. >> right. all of us have gone through that. you can't say something and then turn around and act as though you didn't know it was said, after john said you said, yes, i wrote some of it, it's ambiguous what you wrote and you don't

clarify that, and you get angry when people ask about it. that's the danger zone that he's in. but i think it what it does is that with people like rabinowitz coming out and who knows where this goes this could benefit newt in iowa or paul, and i think john is right, because i was in the caucuses in 2004, if paul has the people to move, there's not a primary, there's a caucus, and he wins, it could set up romney who could win new hampshire and go on. >> no doubt. >> because paul can't live past iowa. i think this is a question of whether it helps newt if he drops enough to help newt or does he become the setup man for the resurrection of mitt romney. >> that's exactly what governor terry brandstad says, he's telling his party to focus on the other conditions and he told politico this, people will look at who comes in second, who comes in third. if mitt romney comes in, he's a

strong second, it definitely helps him coming into new hampshire and the other states. >> this is actually -- this is actually, i think, a big help to newt because it -- >> why? >> it stops the bleeding. the focus turns to ron paul. >> yeah. >> he's the front guy. he's going to get hammered. if you look at this poll, newt has dropped in iowa but he's sitting there about a point or two behind, and i'm telling you, the story steve rattner, you're a numbers guy, you come in with charts and graphs. >> he has some today. >> you ought to chart mitt romney's poll numbers over the past year or two. about is a flatline. latest poll, 17% in iowa. this guy's getting 17, 20% in these early states. more in new hampshire and his home state. >> a flatline for a long time and it started to creep up and the newt thing happened and it pushed him back down and now the ron paul thing is happening and pushing him back down. >> but there's always people

that push him down, isn't there? >> you look at my favorite source of data, it's markets, and trade is giving rahm emanuel a 70% chance of the nomination, gingrich, 10, and ron paul's in single digits somewhere. >> but, it was funny, in trade is a useful tool, as you know with markets there's a heard mentality. at beginning of the month when newt was surging rahm emanue ie 70 to 40. when newt was hot, in trade's with newt. now in trade's with romney. >> i grant you that. >> the stupidity of crowds. >> i don't did agree with that. but there's the stupidity of polls. >> good point. >> the question is, does somebody have to win iowa and new hampshire to be launched forward to compete with mitt romney's organization? is it not -- is it not enough for ron paul to win iowa and -- >> you need to have someone, i

think -- i think the only way for someone to be able to take on romney in the long haul is to win three of the first four states. you can lose new hampshire. >> right. >> but you need to win iowa, south carolina, and then florida. >> who is capable -- well. >> newt, on the basis of the numbers, newt is the only person in position to do that. >> he's the only one? >> there are people in the romney world, they're dismissive of newt's long-term prospects, say if ron paul won iowa, he'd be strong in new hampshire, because of the libertarian streak up there, some in the romney world who think ron paul would be a bigger threat in south carolina than newt would be. some people think that. i'm not sure about that myself. but, but, i think right now in terms of if you look at poll numbers only one who has a chance of doing that is gingrich and he would have to rebound, though, and he would have to work the way you suggested, joe. >> the nightmare scenario ron paul wins iowa, for the romney

campaign, ron paul wins iowa, gets enough momentum to win new hampshire, which could happen, live free or die state, and they go south to south carolina where romney's weakens and then newt gets the surge in south carolina because, again, for those two weeks, the story is not about newt. it's about mitt romney's collapse. >> yep. >> so then newt pushes up in south carolina and florida and then you're off to the races in a battle between mitt, newt. >> but the linchpin is the idea of romney losing new hampshire which would be a disaster by any calculation. >> it's going to be an interesting couple of weeks coming up. one more story before we go to break. this was breaking late yesterday. president obama is stepping up the public pressure on house republicans today with a plan to meet with average americans whose paychecks will take $1,000 hit next year if congress cannot agree on a deal to extent the payroll tax cuts. the president is urging house speaker john boehner to

reconsider the senate's bipartisan plan that was agreed upon to extend the breaks for two more months. in a ten-minute phone call yesterday the president told the house speaker the senate's bill was, quote, the only option. but as of this morning, the speaker is still dug in echoing his push for a year-long solution. that position is drawing fire from all sides of the political spectrum with both the white house and senate republicans taking aim at the house. >> uncertainty that we have to eliminate is the uncertainty that americans have right now about whether or not their taxes are going up on january 1st. there's a bipartisan compromise available to make sure that done happen. just take it. >> are republicans getting killed right now in public opinion? there is no question. are we on a bad path as it relates to public policy? no question. both republicans and democrats have agreed that this is going to happen and probably the best thing to happen now is just to

get it over with. >> okay. >> newt said the same thing. the "wall street journal" said the same thing. >> "wall street journal," i mean, but they have put themselves in a precarious position to put it nicely. and i think the president's doing the right thing. he's helping them go over the cliff. to meet with average americans today to put a face on this, this is not just partisan politics, people are really suffering, i don't see how they think they can get away with this. it's wrong. but it's also politically very, very destructive for the republicans. >> as i have said, i agree with them policy wise, republicans. two months is a complete waste of money. politically, though, they're in a bad position. >> i don't like what they're doing. i disagree with you. i think it's really great for the president, unfortunately. >> the house republicans are going to have to fold if they want to save their skins. the only possibility is two-month extension and then a

conference committee will agree to look at year extension after. that's the only deal out there. >> when we come back, senate majority whip dick durbin. why speaker boehner lost control of the house. and also steven bataglio looks at the year in media and predictions for 2012. >> better than ever in 2012. >> good year. >> great year. >> celebrate that. >> we shall. >> be right back. >> you know -- >> mika, it's christmas. >> as they say, with the good, though, comes the bad. >> right. let's go to bill karins for a check on the forecast. >> you guys were in line for a nice christmas gift. now trying to decide if a fruitcake or re-gift is appropriate. stay tuned for that. good morning, we have weather to talk about. weather issue. white christmas guaranteed in many areas of colorado. you're getting it pretty good. denver you picked up 6 to 10 inches of snow.

a difficult morning for you. wouldn't doubt if a lot of children had the day off of school, grab those sleds. we go from snow in colorado to thunderstorms and a tornado watch in louisiana. west is cold. warm is east. that's why we have the heavy rain in texas, louisiana, and it's very warm, strangely warm in southern new england, temperatures in the 50s for your commute. look at your forecast today. we'll call it 58 in philadelphia. 51 as far north as heart towards. chance of showers late in the day for d.c., pittsburgh. middle of the couldn't tremendous, we talked about thunderstorms around new orleans, if you're joining us early on the west coast, you've had a very quiet december. looks like that's going to change. a rainy christmas weekend up in the pacific northwest. watching "morning joe," of course brewed by starbucks. ♪ you, you ain't alone ♪ and just let me be [ male announcer ] this is your moment.

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pursuant to section 3b of resolution 493 the house stand as jumped until 10:00 a.m. friday. >> mr. speaker, mr. speaker, mr. speaker. mr. -- >> i'd like ask for unanimous consent that we bring up the bill to extent the tax cut for 160 million americans as you walk off the floor, mr. speaker. you're walking out. you're walking away, just as so many republicans have walked away from middle class taxpayers. >> all we're asking for is to get the senate members over here to work with us to resolve our differences so we can do what everybody wants to do getting the payroll tax cut for the next year. i'm hoping that they're ready to

work because we are. >> 24 past the hour. joinings now, democratic senator from illinois and senate majority whip, senator dick durbin. john heilemann and karl burnstein at the table. that's all i want, speaker boehner, did you hear him? >> sounds simple but it sent. >> oh? >> in the senate, to appoint a conference committee, put in place, go to work nine days to start, i mean our procedures are not what they are in the house where rules committee make things work immediately. but it's so obvious with the answer here, you extent this for 60 days, a bipartisan proposal from the senate passed 89-10, with high fives on the floor, have a great holiday, see you back here, we'll negotiate this, and we left. 89-10. gave it to the house and it all blew up. there are two things here that i think really drive this. first, human casualties, 3 million americans having unemployment benefits cut off january 1st. 50,000 in illinois.

and then 160 million americans seeing their payroll tax going you. people scrambling in the hr departments and payroll departments saying, how is this going to en? what do i do next? the second part, unfortunately for him, speaker daner's done, is to call the attention on the last year two government shutdowns, one threatened shutdown on the economy and now this. as the "wall street journal" said yesterday, can you serve up a softer pitch to the other side? >> by the way, quoting the "wall street journal" -- zblu ho ab. t >> bad day for house republicans. >> what are the options, as we move forward? the house republicans, of course, can pass the same bill that passed 89-10 in senate, that makes it easy. >> that's it. that is the only option. >> so the only option left is they have to take this senate bill in full? >> the president reached out yesterday to speaker boehner, against the counsel of some who said let him sweat for a few

days. the president same i'm going to reach out to him, see if we can reach some common ground. >> the president attempted to reach common ground? >> at least to talk to him. let's get the 60-day matter out of the way so there's no uncertainty and then let's sit down and talk. i can tell you both, one of the reasons there was not a year-long agreement in the senate is there are some thorny issues and tough differences between the house -- between the republicans and democrats. i'll also say -- >> how you pay for it. >> how you pay for it. i'll also tell you when it reached this point where the boehner bill passed the house on the tax cut, came to the senate and mitch mcconnell blocked it, would not let us call for a vote, because it would get 20 votes at best, reid said i want a meeting with mcconnell as well as boehner and let's work this out. at the meeting boehner said to reid, i'm not talking to you. you work it out with mcconnell which is exactly what he did. >> so talk about the frustration

among republican senators. you talk about the "wall street journal," newt gingrich also saying republicans should cave and go ahead and take this deal for now, it's the best that could happen. we also saw bob corker on cnbc saying this is just an absolute political train wreck. are you getting a lot of frustration, hearing a lot of frustration from republican senators? >> sure, you bet. scott brown, dean hheller of ne nevada, collins, mccain, the list keeps growing of senate republicans saying to boehner and the house republicans this is madness. extent it 60 days, do what the people wanted us to do, reach a bipartisan agreement, try to sit down and work this out. >> what do you think the motivation is to block this? >> i can tell you joe will remember these days, maybe, when they have a conference call of your caucus and there's some big issue and everybody's scattered to the wind and everybody gets on the call and a few people say this is it, we've got to take

this fight all the way. and then things cool down and the leader, whoever it happens to be says i know you feel very strongly about this, but think this through. how does this end? what does the paper look like tomorrow morning? and what do we do the next day? you need reasoned, responsible leaders to step up and cool them down and it didn't happen here. it went in the opposite direction. >> the third time it's happened, isn't it? >> at least. at least. >> can boehner stay the speaker? >> well, i can't speak for that caucus. i don't know who, maybe cantor's in the wings. listen, i'm not going to analyze their caucus. i will tell you he understands -- i hope he understands now -- if he's looking for a majority of the majority to end up enacting some things here, he's going to have a hard time getting it with the tea party element and the house caucus. >> let's look forward a little bit. you've got, let's say we get the 60-day extension and you come back and negotiate that, try to get a longer extension, what

else happens in 2012? those last year was historically the least productive years in the history of u.s. congress. we're in an election year in 2012. onthis one issue, which you might be able to renegotiate an extension further, anything else happen legislatively next year, anything? >> a lot of us are holding out the hope that we would get involved in a major budget deficit undertaking. how about that? 45 democratic and republican senators -- >> what are those guys smoking? >> when you look at it from the senate side it's reasonable. if the house cannot enact a 60-day extension of a payroll tax cut for middle mcpeople in the middle of the recession a thought of a meaningful deficit reduction plan is not likely. >> in an election year. >> in an election year. >> wouldn't it happen if the senate did away with the rules with the philly buster? isn't it time for the americans to be served instead of this arcane, counter productive institution that has resulted

from this? >> i agree with you. do it. >> it used to be done so rarely that you would point to it and say, well, it's an an act crow is in im, now it's routine. 60 vote requirements on everything. >> that's holding the democracy of the united states of america up. why can't you and some republicans get together and say this is the great issue of our day, the people of this country want us to change our rules so the congress can function. >> minority in the senate whenever it's raised, usually resists it. >> but it's both parties. >> as it should be. >> i will divert widely. i think it actually relates. it seems to me, and i've said this before and joe gets mad -- >> i never get mad. >> -- they want to block the president at every corner, every step of the way. even if it's at the sake of what's good for the country. i go back to these nominations. the ambassador from el salvador,

who has been there for a year. >> yes. and done a great job. >> done a great job. there is no argument against her except apparently someone she dated 20 years ago allegedly. i don't see that happening to a man, number one. and i see it only happening because republicans want it to happen because they can do it. >> but there's a price to be paid when the american people -- >> we will pay the price. >> of course the country pays a price. when you're viewed as unreasonable by most americans it doesn't help with the next election cycle. >> no. i guess they'll ultimately pay the price. but the casualties along the way -- >> in this case 160 million working families, working americans, and 3 million people losing unemployment benefits. >> i think i have held my tongue long enough. >> what? >> you think they're -- >> not quite long enough? >> not quite long enough. >> they've done it to some men. >> the democratic hour of -- i'm sitting here letting it -- let

me ask you a couple of questions. as the lone republican, not only on this set, but in this zip code, let me ask you a couple of questions. first of all, big conservative complaint when you -- you watch this show, so you understand. i go after republicans with equal zeal as democrats in washington. but it seems to me republicans have a good argument to make when they say you want to talk about the dysfunction of the last year, let's look at the democratic senate. they haven't produced a budget in over 900 days. that's a legitimate gripe, isn't it in. >> it's legitimate in this respect, joe. going back to the point made earlier, when you start hammering 60 votes on to everything, our majority is a majority of name only, 53 democratic senators in most instances will need the help of republicans to move forward and their ranks rarely split. susan collins was the only republican senator to join us in a bipartisan effort to extend

the tax cut. >> but that doesn't stop you and your budget committee from producing a budget. to produce a blueprint to say this is the democratic vision for america's future. and that hasn't happened in over 900 -- >> i can't argue. >> isn't it time? the next question that's not about parties, how do we get more people to do what you, saxby chambliss, and so many others were willing to do and step out and make tough decisions? you made really tough decisions on entitlements which i think you have to do. sax by made tough decisions on tax reform on the other side. how do we, as a nation, put pressure on senators to do what you and saxby did and move towards a grand bargain that can save us from crushing debt? >> joe, the interesting thing, when i voted for bowl simpson and they looked at me and said durbin votes for bowl/simpson,

what is this about? i think there needs to be someone from the left sitting at the table when we decide what the deficit's going to look like over the next ten years. i want to make certain and the end of the day the tax code's on the table, it isn't a matter of spending entitlements, but revenue as well as we say. >> right. >> i want to make certain there's a safety net when it's over. there will always be vulnerable people in america who need the help of our government and, finally, a progressive tax code. i think is central to dealing with income and equality in america. i can stand outside the room and scream bloody murder about it or sit at the table. i decided to come to the table. i hope what happens on the left and right is that there's a permission slip to say, all right, sit down, do it, get the best deal that you can. but now let's plea tell you the reality. you know what it is. when it comes to an election cycle, it isn't that sensible center that governs, money raised and spent is off on the edges and that's why it's so difficult. >> no doubt. >> senator durbin, thank you so

much. >> thank you, senator. >> good to be here. >> have a great christmas. >> twins. >> twins. >> love it. next, what will go down as the biggest media story of 2011. we'll bring in tv guide business editor. back in a moment. ♪ [ female announcer ] you use the healing power of touch every day. the healing power of touch can be even more powerful. with precise from the makers of tylenol.

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he hasn't been on tv for a while. do you police it? a few weeks late, do you police it? >> no, i don't miss it. looking forward to something else. i don't know what it is. but, no. >> downhill skiing. >> that would be nice. >> 28 1/2 years. >> no, we need you back. >> you need an even 30. >> that was regis on "morning joe" this week. his departure was one of the biggest media stories. here to discuss all of this, tv in the past year, business editor of "tv guide", steven battaglia author of "from yesterday to today, six decades of america's favorite morning show" the "today" show. >> beautiful. >> gorgeous. >> your coffee table needs this book. >> gorgeous. >> six decade of the "today" show. next year, be waiting, five years of morning joe. >> ready to tell that story. >> a scandalous story that needs to be told.

americans -- let me ask, before we talk about the year that was, let's talk about six decades of the "today" show. what is it about the "today" show that has allowed it to remain number one as long as it has? >> nbc created morning television before the "today" show, there was nothing on. 1952, television still young, it's mostly theater in the home, vaudeville in the home. uncle miltie and television theater and that type of thing. >> right. >> stations didn't sign on until 11:30 in the morning. pat weaver, nbc executive, believed that television had to be on morning. he saw the success it was having in radio. he had overseen successful radio programs. it was he who created the idea of the show that would thereby for people a live show that would have a host who would help people get their day started. he would provide the news,

information, entertainment, but more importantly, he would be a companion. hired a guy named dave garroway knew how to talk to the camera as if he was talking to another person and this was new in television. hadn't been anything like it. the show was very slow to start because tv was not really a part of the day in that it was in the living room. it was a luxury item. you only had one. away from the bedroom, the kitchen, the bathroom. >> good lord. it's changed now. >> it didn't become successful -- >> we're being in bath rooms across america. >> it didn't become successful until after a year when they put a cham pansy on the show. >> that's what worked for us. >> no. >> i am that chimp. >> no. joe, we couldn't afford a chimp for the promo so there's a parrot. we did almost have a chimp, though. >> so when they added the chimp, children who had nowhere to be in the morning would sit down

and start putting the program on, and that was -- that introduced a lot of adults to it and it became a hit from there. and the show's been very consistent over the years in its mission of being there. providing people that you will like, viewers like, and trust in the morning. >> makes you think of bringing back the chimp. >> exactly. >> didn't the chimp start biting people? >> mugs was fired because he was biting the talent and the guest. they filed a lawsuit against nbc because stories about that were getting out. >> so many parallels between mugs and me, biting people. but let's -- >> i want to tell you something, though. in researching the book, i had to look at a lot of the early year cs of the "today" show. many of the things i saw you still see today, holding up the newspaper, talking about the day's events, sitting around with coffee cups and being the best versions of yourselves -- >> morning joe. >> absolutely. >> i thought we made up that

newspaper thing. >> yeah. >> let's -- let's look at some of the big media stories of 2011. >> another big one. >> oprah leaving, huge. >> it was huge. she's actually -- it's a big challenge now. it's one thing to have a prime minister that you launched in 1984, a successful talk show that became a cultural icon in this country and was number one for years and years. to walk way from that, try to start a cable network that you have to program, it's an uphill battle for her. >> we've got phone hacking scandal in great britain, a thought for sometime that that was going to jump the pond and impact the murdoch empire here. it hasn't done that. >> it really hasn't. >> it's been contained. >> what fox news does is very different than what the tabloid newspapers, the murdoch empire do and there wasn't any type of residue there that affected them. >> another big media story? >> to me, the big story is how

the consumer is watching television. one of the most important numbers, i think, of the -- that i've seen in the past year was that the percentage of homes that own a television set actually went down for the first time since 1975. now there are a number of reasons for that. but one of them is that you have a generation of consumers, of viewers, who don't watch tv in the traditional way. they watch it on tablet, maybe on their iphone, on their computer screen. >> also real-time. if you look at the series that i watch, whether it's "30 rock" or "bored to death" may it rest in peace, whether it's "curb your enthusiasm," "entourage" i haven't seen the last four episodes. over christmas break i will sit down, four months later, and look at all of these. but it has to be awfully

frustrating for tv executives since that's where the viewer's gone. >> a television program now is an asset that is exploited through a number of different channels. you had jason amera on from "tara nova" he's waiting to find fought his show will be picked up by fox. they're not looking at the rating on monday night. they're trying to figure out, how well this show will sell in foreign, how well -- what type of deals will we get with netflix and itunes. all sorts of new revenue streams now that you have to look at to decide whether a tv show is success because of the different platforms that viewers have to watch them on. >> new opportunities. >> thank you for being here. show your hands. no bite marks. no bite marks. >> i'm clean. >> thank you so much. the new weekly jobs report is just out. >> buy the book from yesterday to today. it will change your life.

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welcome back to "morning joe" let's go to brian schactman, he's got the great news with a new weekly jobless number. no pressure. >> 364,000, down 4,000 from a revised 368. almost three-year low, folks. basically takeaway, politically, is this should bring down the unemployment rate which is good for the obama campaign. gets down to about 8, the dynamic changes quite a bit. want to point out gdp revises down to 1.8% from 2, though looking at an uptick in q4. jobless claims a positive number but the stock futures slightly higher. facebook going public valued at $100 billion, 3,000 employees.

mcdonald's 100 billion with 400,000 employees. >> nonsense. it's pixie dust they're sprinkling around. it's 2011 version of pets.com. i don't understand the stock valuation stuff. >> brian, thank you. >> have a great holiday season. >> you, too. >> thank you. number may go down again. >> you never know. things could look better every time. >> coming up next, the best of late night. ♪ you, you ain't alone ♪ and just let me be [ male announcer ] this is your moment. ♪ your ticket home ♪ [ male announcer ] this is zales, the diamond store.

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huh, huh? hear that? have you downloaded it yet? >> i've downloaded it. >> on "easy rider." i know "the devil went down to georgia." he's got great ones. >> i learned there's a grand tradition of having monkeys on the air, "morning joe" is in that tradition. >> i don't bite as much as mugs did on the "today" show. >> i learned i'm going to be quizes for christmas dinner. i'm ea