a very special birthday, of our great friend, savannah gutry. savannah, happy birthday, i promise i won't tell. stick around right now for the daily run down with chris cillizza. see ya. six candidates, seven days, with one week left till until the caucuses, who has the zeal to seal the deal in iowa and with expectations growing, which one can't afford to come up short? newt gingrich's surge as the anti-romney started late cool, it end too early? could gingrich go the way of bachmann, perry and cain before voters actually start voting? while the campaign takes center stage, congress gets ready to do it all over again. are we in store for another down to the wire fight over tax breaks? 60 days can fly bay fast. good morning to washington. this is "the daily rundown." i'm in for chuck todd. let's get to the first reads of

the morning. republicans, start your engines, just a weak go before the iowa caulk cubs seven days, five of the six gop candidates will be in iowa at some point today. newt gingrich, mitt romney and rick perry are all kicking off bus tours while michele bachmann and rick santorum hold 14 events between the two of them. teegtd madness, apparent front runner ron paul shows up tomorrow. dom, good morning, thanks for joining me. newt gingrich made a lot of the fact he is staying positive. we had a break in that strategy. monday night, gingrich's communication director sent out a e-mail, he said the following, wrote the following can we trust a massachusetts moderate to enact a conservative agenda? our campaign might have plenty of things to say about that but the best response certainly comes from mitt romney himself.

i think people recognize i am not a partisan republican, that is someone who is moderate and that my views are pro-grace sive. what does this tell us? i have long held that newt gingrich, if he wants to whip the iowa caulks, can only hold off going negative so long. what does this tell us where newt things he is? >> the fact of the matter is needs to go somewhat negative to fight off of this incoming that's coming his way by the back of the envelope or blackberry calculator math. >> the new back of the envelope. >> the numbers we laid out, first, restore our future, the pro romney super pac, spending $2.8 million in iowa. romney spending 1.1 million. gingrich spending just 475,000. if you do the math, that's 8.2-1 he is being outspent. that is a real problem. gingrich said that he doesn't see the moderate thing as a negative. he says, look, said on friday,

per our embed in south carolina, ali weinberg this is not negative because it's true. >> i love that talking before we came on that is the greatest response well you said you wouldn't go negative, well, i'm just saying what's true. rick santorum was one of the few candidates you the on the true, most of us were slagging it back from new jersey to connecticut, i spent 9 1/2 hours on the turnpike last night. santorum was in iowa meeting and hunting with steve king last night. >> there is three primaries, libertarian, which ron paul is going to win. then the moderate primary, which gingrich and romney are scrumming for around then three folks who are running as strong conservatives and i think if we whip that primary, we are in very good shape as the nonnewt

romney. >> he has got the wearing as much bright orange as possible locked up. always hunting is smart. mitt romney would not be happy to be winning the moderate primary but in general, it is an interesting read. >> seems like the only person who hasn't had his moment in the sun, traditional iowa camp page, only candidate too visit 99 counties, saying what about me, guys, look, in that analysis, you were to add that up, that means finishing fourth is okay with him? i don't think that fourth is gonna cut it. >> he is nowhere in new hampshire. >> see what the makeup of the caucusgoers are. in 2008, 60% said they were born

again or evangelical christians, up from 40, 45% in 2004. why? because of mike huck any 2004 and 2008 was able to drive those numbers. well, does ron paul drive some of those caucus goers had time around? maybe it has more to do with the candidate than the makeup of the elector rat. >> how many people vote? you have had caucus turnout ranging from 75,000 to 120,000 the last couple of decades. where is it and how much -- how does that help? one other thing i want to get to, newt gingrich did not make the ballot in virginia. this is a very high ballot threshold, only mitt romney and ron paul did make it. here is what they had to say about not making the ballot, we will come back and let's listen to that. >> look, we are disappointed but it was our fault and we hope they will launch a write-in campaign and getting an amazing number of people who want us to -- believe virginians ought to have the right to choose and shouldn't be restricted to just

two people and with five different candidates not on the ballot. we will probably launch a write-in campaign. >> now, you can't launch, at least by virginia law, you can't launch a write-in campaign, so unless newt and his people challenge it he is not on the ballot in virginia. it is possible the race doesn't go to virginia but does this tell us something broader about newt organizationally in iowa yes does need to do well? rnlgts not about the delegates that virginia would provide, the fact that mitt romney's campaign has been trying to push this narrative that newt gingrich's campaign can't stan stand up to not only mitt romney but barack obama who might have $1 billion to spend and is also organize and the dnc is outspending the entire republican field and president obama hasn't really even ramped up the campaign yet. so, this has more to do with whether or not newt gingrich can last the long haul and send a

signal to those donors whether or not they should get on board gingrich train or no. >> if you are somebody on the fence, an activist or a donor, you see, here is it can't be confidence inspiring. >> what is worse for beginning rich, he lives virginia. >> exactly. his home state. >> right. >> thanks for joining us, one week away. >> thanks, chris. now, mitt romney is actually splitting his time between new hampshire which votes january 10th and iowa, january 3rd. trying to make up for a light schedule on the ground with statewide television ads. i'm gonna do something to government, make it simpler around smaller and smarter getting rid of program, turning programs back to states and finally making government itself more efficient. >> nbc's peter alexander is live for us in des moines. now, nothing makes up for time spent on the ground, peter but romney is blanketing the state, dom and i were talking about it between him and the super pac, lots of ads, are you seeing them out there? >> we are, absolutely. there have been a record number of ads, not just by romney,

chris but overall, more than $10 million spent in the month of december alone by all of these candidates, blastering the air waves. what is important to note about mitt romney, four years ago, he really attacked this state, 77 days he spent post the straw poll, getting out and glad handing with everybody across this area. th time around, spent ten days here so far, next convenient in calf.port, iowa, later this evening, in new hampshire for two events today the significance there is obvious, he doesn't believe he needs meet and greet individuals, accomplish the same goal perhaps more feicktively over the airwaves in time around. chris? >> the polk county republican party chairman, polk county, des moines, area, big county, essentially said we need a moratorium on negative ads, too many of these it is bad for the party. i tend to be skeptical of those things, a week before the caucuses. do we have a sense any of the candidates, other than newt gingrich will buy into this plea

for an to end negative campaigning? >> well, we have a sense that was going to happen until, of course, over this weekend, newt gingrich releasing that new mailer, effectively going negative, his claim, as you said to dom minute coker he is not going to negative. those folks fighting back and forth.

>> i love that shot of the iowa state house behind you, stay warm. >> we welcome you. see you soon. president obama's hawaiian holiday got a little bit brighter a new gallup tracking poll shows his approval rating has jumped to 47% with 45% disapproving. that's the first time his numbers have been in positive territory since july. nbc's kristen welker is live for must honolulu where the president is vacationing and where it is very early in the morning. thanks for getting up. i assume -- probably still too early for the president to have seen these numbers but this is a very good sign for the president, i would add the gallup number also, "washington post" poll showed 49 and disapprovaled a 47 a couple big polls were he is above water. what do they attribute it to? >> good morning, chris, white house hasn't responded to numbers yet, generally don't make too much of any given

polling number but you are right, these number russ significant, positive, show that the president has rebounded from that bruising debt ceiling debate. they also come on the heels of some other good news for the president. as you know, he just won that victory in the payroll tax cut fight which is, of course, ongoing. in addition to that the economy has started to show signs of life. we have seen the up employment rate go down a built. so all of these things put together means that the president is really entering this new year around what will undoubtedly be a really tough re-election year in a positive way. having said that, this bounce could be short-lived. the time between now and election day is really a lifetime away in terms of politics. so, a lot could happen and when voters actually head to the polls, they will probably be thinking about one thing and that is the economy but the bottom line is these numbers are good for the president and if you think just back to october, his approval rating was at an all-time low, 38% according to

gallup so this is certainly good news for the president, chris. >> a fast bounce back. quickly, kristen, i want to get to yemen, the yemeni president is requesting permission to come to the united states to seek medical treatment. do we know the latest on that story? >> well, according to the white house and they just released a statement about this and i believe we have it if we could put the graphic up, the white house is saying that u.s. officials are continuing to consider president saleh's request to enter the country for the sole purpose of seeking medical treatment but initial reports that permission has already been granted are not true. now, sal lay was injured in an attack during june r bottom line is the united states has a number of condition these would like to see saleh meet. yemen is one of the arab spring nation, they started to rise up and protest saleh's rule, the

government retaliated with a really brutal crackdown, accused of killing hundreds of protesters. right now the united states really has to walk a pretty fine line. the one hand they don't want to be seen as providing a refuge for someone who is accused of killing hundreds of his own people. on the other hand, saleh has agreed to hand over power to his vice president. so, there is a thought that if he comes to the united states, it could allow that transition to happen more smoothly. chris? >> kristen, thanks for staying on top of all of the news. >> absolutely. after a short break in the bickering, lawmakers in washington are getting ready to go back for another round over let's make a deal after the holidays. will anything be different this time around? plus, you think today's campaign ads are nasty, we will take you back to one of the dirtiest campaigns in american history, the race that sparked the first onscreen attack ads and gave birth to the political campaign as we know it. but first, a look ahead at the president's schedule. uyjl6ns'4m4oxl,f3+

democrats scored a legislative victory when house republicans accepted the two-month extension to keep a tax cut for 160 million americans but that compromise was just the first step for congress looking aneed a heavily live in the 2012. john yarmouth of ken keep is a member of the house budget committee. good morning, congressman.

60 days about buys us a little bit of time what you but what makes confident we are not going to be right back where we were a few days ago in 60 days' time? >> i'm very confident we will be exactly in that place 60 days from now. this is a fundamental debate that's been going on for all of 2011. this is what you do during a serious economic decline and how you pay for the assistance you provide. that is the debate we are having and we will have it again. >> i know all the focus or a lot of the focus has been on the payroll tax cut extension bugs another piece of this is up employment insurance. now, it's currently 99 weeks unemployment insurance. republicans have proposed to cut it to 79 weeks by january, 59 weeks by the summer. obviously this is going to require a compromise on both

sides to get to a deal. is that the kind of thing democrats will be following compromise on or it should stay at 99 weeks and absolute fundamental that that stays in for you guys. the key is what the trend in the economy is, as long as there are four or five people competing for every job that is available it doesn't make sense to reduce the eligibility time f that goes down to two or three jobs for every person, then it might make some sense but the republicans want to make some fundamental structural changes in unemployment that i think the american people would not be very receptive to, things like requiring a ged program or going took school to receive benefits and i'll tell a 69-year-old steelworker he has to go back back and get a ged, this isn't

going to work. they are trying to characterize all beneficiaries as undeserving slacker 19-year-olds when in today's world, they are teachers, they are firefighters, they are police, they are steelworkers, they are people hoe have, no fault of their own, fallen prey to this economic downturn. those things are going to be debated as well, very important components of this debate. now, we have -- we finally do have conferees to at least theoretically hash this out, five republicans -- five democrats, eight republicans, is there -- and you have spent time with this. is there common ground here you stayed this is just a fundamental disagreement, but at the s we are going to be in 2012 in a few days, neither party certainly wants to raise taxes on lots of people this close to an election. where do you see, if you see it, but where do you see possible compromise so we move forward beyond this in 60 days' time?

>> well, i think the only common ground that is possible is if we kind of revert to many of the practices that we had. for instance with unemployment benefits extensionses and tough times, we have never demanded that we be paid for this is the demand of the congress there are places we might find, at least in precedence, some common ground, right now, i'm not sure there's much come mopped ground at all if the republicans are totally unwilling to -- to ask for more rev new to help pay for these very, very important programs, the payroll tax extension and also the sgr fix for the doctors providing services to medicare patients. that will expire in 60 days as well that requires money to fix. >> very quickly congressman, is there -- i know a lot of you have been away, but any sense of momentum among democrats after this payroll tax cut ex-stepping? clearly the president and

democrats won, house republicans capitulated and vote fwortd-month extension. is there any sense of momentum you guys have at the moment? >> here is what i believe is the case. the democrats feel that the narrative is much more conducive to our agenda. and the narrative should not change. the occupy wall street movement was a part of. this the playing field is unecatch the game is rigged. there is too much economic imbalance in the country. and also, that right now, we can't afford dramatic cuts in government spending because that will set back whatever recovery is in motion. so again, i think that the storyline is working in our favor.

thousand of credit card numbers stolen from firm that specializes in security u but first, it's today's trivia question. my name is robin. i'm a wife, i'm a mom... and chantix worked for me. it's a medication i could take and still smoke, while it built up in my system. [ male announcer ] along with support, chantix is proven to help people quit smoking. it reduces the urge to smoke. some people had changes in behavior, thinking or mood, hostility, agitation, depressed mood and suicidal thoughts or actions while taking or after stopping chantix.

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were brian sullivan is here with a look at the market. >> the day after thanksgiving

was a good day for retailer, hopped up optimism for the whole holiday san, unfortunately there is one big name thought that is not participating and that is sears holdings, the parent company of sears, of course, but also kmart. they said that holiday sales were just terrible, falling more than 5% year-over-year and they are going to have to close 100 to 120 sears and/or kmart stores which means layoffs. chris, as far as the overall holiday sales numbers go, we are not sure, expectation those with gain 2%. not a lot of cheer at sears. >> thanks for the report. $10 million has been spent on advertising in iowa alone for the republican bus what's it buying them? plus, we are looking at one of the great grassroots camp pains. how a race for california governor became one of the

nastiest contests in history and forever linked hollywood and liberal politics. you are watching "the daily rundown," only on msnbc. acro am, i've learned that when you ask someone in texas if they want "big" savings on car insurance, it's a bit like asking if they want a big hat... ...'scuse me... ...or a big steak... ...or big hair... i think we have our answer. geico. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance. ♪ oh, yeah ♪ 'cause i believe in you and me ♪ ♪ oh, boy ♪ i believe in miracles ♪ and i believe in you and me ♪ ♪ see, i was lost ♪ now i'm free

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[ male announcer ] it's our biggest clearance event of the year where our prices are even lower. save money. live better. walmart. back with "the daily rundown," i'm chris sim liz za in for chuck todd this morning. leer some other stories making headlines. internet hackers known as anonymous claim to have stolen thousands of credit card numbers from the start ford security firm. the main page has been closed and under maintenance for ache. the hear, claim some of the stolen money was then given to charity. an al qaeda front group is claiming responsibility for the baghdad attacks that killed 69 and left hundreds injured last thursday. they were the first major attack since u.s. troops completed their full withdrawal from the nation. and prince phillip returned home this morning. queen elizabeth's husband had been recovering from a heart procedure at a cambridge hospital.

upton sinclair almost added a new title, governor. chuck todd sat down for an interview. >> with me journalist and blogger greg mitchell, just released a new e-book, rereleased, "the campaign of the century, upton sinclair's race for governor of california and the birth of media politics." now, we say it's a new book. it's new in e-form, going to be released obviously a new version, a new edition in hard cover form. set the scene of the ray upton sinclair, famous author decides to run, set the scene of that campaign, 1932. sip claire, as you mentioned, was a famous muck ray, wrote the jungle, many people familiar with that book, he also in the early part of the century is

also one of the most famous writers and agitators and in america and around the world and a life long socialist. he decided in 1933 he would run for governor of california. of course, franklin roosevelt had just been elected, we were in the deppette of the depression anticipated would form a movement called end poverty in california and lo and behold -- >> was he drafted in or did he do this himself? >> he decided on his own, he had some of these aspirations before. he decided to run for governor, figured he would get a few tens thousand votes whatever, like occupy wall street today, epic club formed around the state, more than 1,000 eventually. they start third own weekly newspaper, got over half a million circulation. and lowe and behold, upton sinclair swept the democratic ply mary for governor. >> all of a sudden, he's nominee. >> he is a nominee in a landslide and appeared woe win election in november, given the

social movement, given the, you know, what was going on with fdr. that is the other reason junkies should be reading this book, you learn where modern advertising began. >> and spin doctors and turning -- until then, campaigns were run by party hacks, basically, with this campaign, because of the perceived threat of sinclair, they turned the campaigns over to outsiders, turn it had over to businessmen, they turned it over to advertising directors and hollywood got involved for the first time and quite a bit in the book about the creation of the first attack ads on the

screen. >> the irony is hollywood today associated with the left. >> that's right. >> back back then associated with the sustainment? >> absolutely. absolutely. the first attack ads on the screen may shock many people to learn, of course, the movie screen then, were actually created, directed, produced by irving thalburg, one of the icon good guy. >> the irving thalburg award. >> that's right. he was at mgm. he worked under extremely right wing louis b. mayor and ordered a film crew to go out and film these what were fake newsreels that torpedo's sinclair's candidacy. >> what was interesting about it and great about this new way of publishing books, on the e-version, good youtubes go with it i encourage people to look at these thalburg-created, as you describe it the first visual tv ad, all of this was anti- -- all this a negative campaign.

no positive campaign. >> the candidate was a conservative republican governor who had done nothing. he was -- actually mocked by his supporters but he was -- you know, he was the anti-sinclair and so they -- rather than focus on him whatsoever, they focused on completely on destroying sinclair. >> and what was it -- after this campaign, what did sinclair do next? >> well, he -- you know, he tried to keep the movement going. now, there were -- actually, another significant thing about this campaign, it created the modern democratic party in california. until this point, the democratic party was conservative, overwhelmed by republicans, because of the sinclair campaign, democrats took hold, became the liberal democratic party in california, they elected many state legislators in that election who went on to become, you know, leaders of the democratic party it also pushed hollywood to the level, you mentioned to the right of them, campaign was so vicious against sinclair it got all the

hollywood screen writers and actors and so forth to start to organize on the left. >> sort of the birth of what would you say is the modern democratic party in california. >> and the birth of modern hollywood, liberal politics. >> that was greg mitchell, author of "campaign of the century," now available as an e-book. under pressure, with just one week go until iowa, it's looking like a three-way race. our postholiday panel will be here to play the expectations game. you're watching "the daily rundown," only on msnbc. this new at&t 4g lte is fast. did you hear sam... ...got promoted to director? so 12 seconds ago. we should get him a present. thanks for the gift basket. you're welcome. you're welcome. did you see hr just sent out new... ...office rules? cause you're currently in violation of 6 of them. oh yeah, baby? ...and 7. did you guys hear that fred is leaving? so 30 seconds ago. [ noisemakers blow ] [ both ] we'll miss you! oh, facecake! there's some leftover cake. [ male announcer ] the new htc vivid. stay a step ahead with at&t 4g lte, with speeds up to 10x faster than 3g. ♪

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is still the largest indoor theater in the world. i did not know that. seven days out from iowa and it looks like a three-way battle for first place. so, who needs this iowa win the most? let's bring in our panel, michelle bernard is an msnbc political analyst and president of the bernard center for women, politics and public policy. steve mcmahon is a democratic strategist and michael shearer is white house correspondent for "time" magazine. hello, all. welcome back. let talk first about iowa. we are seven days out. everyone is spinning, you know, rick santorum -- if rick santorum get his votes, taking a victory out of it the romney, i talked to romney folks the last couple of days, said we finish in the top three that is good enough for us. who need these win the most, mike? >> the second tier crowd needs the win the most. romney can survive a little bit of a dispintment here, ron paul could probably come in anywhere and get votes going through,

michele bachmann, rick santorum, rick perry, they don't perform very well, neepgt top three is really hard to see how they have an argument going into new hampshire what they are trying to do is get to south carolina and hoping that south carolina finally gives them that boost. >> michelle, the iowa defenders and they are legion, say this won't pick the nominee but it will winnow down the field. let's say if new england finishes second, whether ron paul or mitt romney wins, he can stay in the race, he is a viable candidate? >> he is still a viable candidate but the problem that newt gingrich has, for example, is the fact that he is not going to be on the virginia ballot. you know, what it base is his campaign we don't know. he will still be a viable candidate it but ma makes you ask, can he raise money, can he run ads? does he have the financial wherewithal to stick in there a even after iowa, assuming he comes in the top three. >> you mention gingrich on the ballot in virginia. we talked about that earlier but steve, i want to read for you

what gingrich's campaign director had to say didn't make the ballot, 10,000 ballots, very high bar. what he said. michael croel. newt and i gray agree the analogy is december 1941 we have experienced an unexpected setback but we will regroup and refocus with increased determination, commitment and positive action. no like comparing making a ballot to pearl harbor what does that tell us, steve, you have been involved in presidential campaigns what does this tell us? virginia it may not mean that much in virginia, maybe the vase over by the time we get there what does it tell us? what kind of signal does it send that newt, who is, you know, not the national front require, close to at the moment, didn't make the ballot? >> it says the gingrich campaign can't organize a parade what it really says. for major -- he lives virginia, should have had plenty of people he could have sent out to get the signatures, 10 should steep, when running for president, not that steep. everybody else is ho is a major candidate seems to figure out way to get on the ballot.

you know, i think it does send a signal to everybody in the republican sort of political group that this guy is interesting and maybe even fun to watch but not a serious candidate for president of the united states. >> i think the clearest indication that gingrich's argument once his campaign collapsed over the summer is we can run this untraditional campaign with he don't have to be transformative post whatever campaign and there are real bench marks tough meet. >> absolutely. >> his consultants were right. he had to be raising money in the spring, it had to be doing a basic organization, he never did. >> the first savior, rick perry, unable to qual for the ballot. they were supposed to have money, organization, everything. >> lumps them together. >> what is remarkable is who is the other person other than mitt romney who qualified for the ballot in virginia? >> ron paul. >> i want to ask you, i feel like we don't pay enough attention to ron paul, given yes stands in the polling, i don't think he is likely to be the republican presidential nominee but he could win iowa what does

that say either about the republican party or about where this race goes forward if ron paul, even by a small margin, whips the iowa caucuses a week from today? >> i would say first and foremost, number one, if paul wins the caucuses, we will see people do more in depth analysis of what ron paul is, what he stands for. >> we have seen some of it. because of the holiday season, we got away from that but these are questions of moral character that absolutely have to be asked about ron paul if he does very well in iowa, i think the entire nation will sit back and say we might have a problem here and we need to really taken a in-depth look at his politics we talk about foreign policy, how truly feels about the united states government. most people, i would venture to guess, love our country so, when ron paul says seems to be siding over iran over the united states that is a huge problem. >> now, one person we haven't talked about is the guy who i think most people i talk to think is going to be the

nominee, which is mitt romney. >> the way he like us it. >> dangerous. >> talk about ron paul and newt gingrich and rick perry. steve, where does he need to finish? his people, as i mentioned, any one of the top three is fine. can he finish third? he still looks strong, "boston globe" poll out over the weekend, 39, romney, 17, ron paul, he is okay in new hampshire, can he establish the momentum he need it is he finishes third behind gingrich? >> i think he can. mitt romney, argument is you have no other choice, i'm the inevitable nominee, finishing third behind two people like newt gingrich and ron paul, even rick santorum or ron paul i think makes the case for him, you have no other choice, you better pick me, sooner rather than later because i'm going to be the nominee. look at these two people. >> i would say just to your point in a piece by john heilman in new york magazine, they have got a romney adviser on background saying there is no scenario under which i don't see us as the nominee.

they probably believe. >> not sure it is true, by the way. >> if we see ron paul or newt gingrich coming in first and second in iowa, i think there's an argument to be had that after looking at these two characters, a lot of people, particularly end pep dents and people who are just right of center and just left of center might actually find mitt romney a lot more appealing after looking at who's one and two coming out of iowa. >> i think that will be -- i'm interested to see how iowa republicans react if ron paul whips, too that will be fascinating, 'cause they are very, very interested in keeping -- we will be back. >> the vote in new hampshire. mitt romney, very good for mitt romney. >> maybe for jon huntsman. back to talk about t first, trivia time. we asked which president once lost an entire set of white house china in a poker game in the answer, president warren g. harding. harped played cards so free when circumstance his advisers were known as the poker cabinet. we will be right back with more from our panel, but first, don't

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with one week to go before the iowa caucuses, ad spending in the hawkeye state has topped $12 million. rick perry and the super pac that supports him leads the way with $6 million spent. mitt romney and the pro-romney pac have spend nearly $4 million. newt gingrich is yet to break half a million in spending. michelle bernard, steve mcmahon and steven cher. the problem he had when his

campaign imploded in june is now, doesn't have enough money. getting outspent 9.2:1 by romn y romney/perry. >> the story of the last two weeks is the effectives in of negative ads. a in iowa you've seen this cratering, because everybody is up with ads against him in iowa. it does matter in the end. negative ads still work. everybody says they don't like them, but they work. >> they continue to run them for one reason, right? steve, i want to go to you on what rick son tomorrow had to say this morning. >> what i have been saying to the people of iowa, as we head

down the stretch and people are making their decisions and stepping forward, that is don't defer your judgment to all of these national polls or the pundits. when i say to the folks of iowa, it's to lead. you've asked for the responsibility to be first, don't defer your judgment, lead. >> first, i like santorum and am pro-sweater vest. thises to mike's point, it shows gingrich ahead. is there a path -- he doesn't have the expectations of winning, but let's saying he comes in third. is it enough? >> if he comes in third he may become the conservative to the field. you have the libertarian primary, the flip-flopper primary, which is my character characterization of gingrich and romney, and frankly the conservative primary is between gingrich and somebody else.

perry, i think, once the air comes out of the balloon, it's hard to put back in. rick santorum is the only candidate on iowa on a slow, stadia rise. i don't think it's going to be fast enough, but if it gets in there, remember in 1984, when gary hart, but the story coming out of iowa was gar counter hart that's what rick santorum is hoping for. >> michelle, why hasn't december we've seen everybody go through these boom/bust cycles you but rick santorum. if he comes in sect or third, that may be what we're talking about. does he have it in him to do that? >> well, you know yesterday's "the washington post" had a fascinating analysis of what's happening in iowa. people said to you, for example, i liked rick perry until i saw him in the debate. i liked newt gingrich until i

was reminded about his ethics violation, i like michele bachmann, but her voice gets on my nerve. i'm going with the conservative, and that's rick santorum. i think this is his time to shine, at least in iowa. >> we'll see. >> those voters are looking for one like rick santorum. >> shameless plugs, mike. >> i was just driving by chris hitchens' apartment on columbia road, there's still flowers and johnny walker red. read his book, argue reply, it's out there. >> my wife, who does a better job for christmas each year. thank you, honey. >> howard university and howard university hospital lane frederick, they are doing fantastic work. >> that's nice. mine is savannah guthrie, her 21st birthday today. i think that's right. >> i think that's right. that's it for this edition of "the daily rundown."

see you back here tomorrow. coming up next it's chris jansing answers company, and then don't miss andrea mitchell reports at 1:00 p.m. ♪ that's good morning, veggie style. hmmm [ male announcer ] for half the calories -- plus veggie nutrition. could've had a v8. yeah, our low prices are even lower. we need to teach her how to walk. she is taking up valuable cart space. aren't you, honey?

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good morning. i'm chris jansing. the clock is ticking down. today it's a week to the way caucus. they're revving up their buses and stump speeches. five of them are in iowa for now. for at least three of them this state could kill or revive their flailing campaigns. peter alexander is live in des moines, where all action is. those of us who have been there this time of year in iowa every four years you could be dropped from another planet. if you go to a local diner or watch tv, you know there's a campaign on. >> it's hard to miss. we were watching the local nbc affiliate here in des moines,