in for andrea mitchell. we begin in the hawkeye state. five candidates are holding 22 events today alone as the race for iowa enters the home stretch. nbc's peter alexander is live for us in des moines. peter, hello there. i assume you're going to be at most of these 22 events. you're in the place to be. obviously, 22 events is a whopping number. this is the final push. what's your sense from out there on where things stand today? >> reporter: yeah, it's exactly right. 22 at least events today. we'd like to say we're going to hit all of them. clearly, that's not possible. michele bachmann alone is trying to hit all 99 counties in this state. only rick santorum has done that so far. she only has two more days left in which she thinks she's going to be able to accomplish this. the conservatives in this state have traditionally done very well in the caucuses here because only a small population shows up on caucus day. the weather should be good here, which may indicate a more moderate showing in terms of the people that come to the caucuses on that day. but today really you cannot miss

these candidates. even if they were gone for the christmas holiday, the advertising buys here have been really impressive. more than $10 million, chris, spent here alone this month. mitt romney spending a lot of that money, outspending newt gingrich 8-1 if you include the romney super pac. gingrich himself has only spent roughly $476,000 so far. also today, they're some of what some people refer to as the dirty politics that upsets a lot of people. nbc news can now report that earlier today, this morning some iowans received a text message that was essentially asking them to call a local phone number. when they called that phone number, it had articulated that it would be romney exposed. that phone number then revealed a recording of mitt romney's comments from 1994, where his convictions on the pro-life, the abortion debate have really been in question. he now of course indicates he's pro life. in 1994 during a massachusetts state senate debate he made it very clear that he was not in favor of abortion -- or he was,

excuse me, in favor of abortion at the time. and that's one of the things going on today as many of these candidates really try to grab a hold of those conservative voters who will be heading to the polls exactly one week from today. chris? >> and you know, peter, i know he's been asked about this in debates quite regularly, in 2008 and in this race and has essentially said i've changed my mind. but obviously, this last week is when everything and the kitchen sink gets thrown. romney is making kind of an interesting play as it relates to iowa conservatives. his new ad in iowa focuses on his business background. let's play a little bit. we'll come back and talk about it. >> i'm going to do something to government. i'm going to make it simpler and smaller and smarter. getting rid of programs, turning programs back to states, and finally making government itself more efficient. >> so obviously, peter, nothing about abortion. nothing about gay marriage in there. but conservative businessman across the screen the whole time. the question is do you think this is the right closing argument for mitt romney in iowa? >> reporter: i think it's very clear from what newt gingrich has said in the last day, he

said he wouldn't go negative, and he says he has not gone negative, despite this new mailer he sent out that in his argument this isn't the truth, that mitt romney is not a consistent, not a true conservative. we've heard that said by multiple forces throughout the course of the campaign here in the state. you know, chris, as you talk about the new effort by mitt romney here, it's also important to note this is being communicated through an advertisement. mitt romney has only spent ten days on the ground here in the state of iowa since this campaign really launched this time around. compare that to one -- excuse me, four years ago where the romney campaign, mitt romney himself had been here 77 days. earlier today in new hampshire as he said good-bye to the folks there he made it very clear we'll see you january 4th as if he's going to be in iowa for the entire last week. he gets here for an event this evening at about 6:30. but obviously, much of his message has been delivered over the airwaves, where people cannot question him about the conservative commitment of mitt romney. >> absolutely. in new hampshire today and then iowa later today.

peter alexander in iowa. thank you. gill gicho is the communications director for the mitt romney presidential campaign, and she joins us now. gale, peter and i were just talking about this. i'm not sure if you're aware of it, but nbc is now confirming text messages sent out this morning essentially raising questions about mitt romney's pro-life credentials. what's your response? >> well, first of all, governor romney has made it clear that that is the one substantial issue that he has changed his position on. and he is pro life. he will govern as president as a pro-life president. and that's not something that he's going to apologize for. but i think the real topic here is that this is the last week going into the iowa caucuses where candidates now have the chance to talk to voters and make the case for their candidacy. so you're going to see a lot of those negative attacks and, frankly, just plain rhetoric flying around in these last couple of days. >> now, gail, i know governor romney is in new hampshire but is en route to iowa later today. he's going to give a speech in davenport later this afternoon.

this is part of kind of the closing argument, obviously, we're a week out. can you give us a preview of what he's going to say? >> you're exactly right, chris. he's headed to davenport this afternoon, where he's going to deliver his closing argument speech, much like he did last week when he was in new hampshire. and he's going to follow up the closing argument speech with a three-day bus tour around the state where he's going to meet voters and talk to them about why he is best suited to not only take on president obama but also get to the white house and turn this economy around. but i can tell you that there is some significance to the venue that the campaign chose for the speech tonight and that's that four years ago president obama was in iowa and he was in davenport, actually. it was almost four years ago to the day that he gave his closing argument speech in davenport. so governor romney is going to be at a location that's not far from where president obama spoke four years ago. but during that speech that president obama gave four years ago he said that he wanted to change washington. he said he wanted to fix the gridlock, to eliminate it, and

also to repair the nation. but if you take a look at where we are as a country now, you've got 25 million people who are unemployed or underemployed. you've got a historic high deficit at $15 trillion. you've got a housing crisis. and some families who are just one bit of bad economic news away from poverty. and you also have soldiers who are returning from service -- sorry, chris. returning from service unable to find a job. so he's going to be talking about the promises that president obama made but also the failures of his administration. >> and gail, let me ask you, i know you guys are focusing on the general election and president obama, and i appreciate that, but newt gingrich in an e-mail is attacking mitt romney. now, newt gingrich has largely said he wants to run a nicy-nicy campaign, not going to attack, but in an e-mail he asks, can we trust a massachusetts moderate tone act a conservative agenda? it goes on and on. but we're now seeing these attacks from the text message to the moderate attack.

this is what hurt governor romney four years ago when mike huckabee said he was the true conservative. will it hurt him again? and can governor romney afford, let's say, a third place showing in iowa next week? >> well, i'll address all of those things. but first let me just say that we're not focused on the general election. we're focused on the primary election. we're not taking anything for granted. we know that we have to work very hard in the early states. and that's why governor romney was in new hampshire last week on the bus tour and why he's going to be in iowa this week leading up to the caucuses. but like i said, there is going to be a lot of attacks between now and next tuesday. and if anybody has any questions about governor romney's conservative credentials, they should take a look at what he did as governor. when he was governor, he came into office after having served 25 years in the private sector. and he turned the economy around. there was a state that had very high unemployment and he lowered that rate substantially. he helped create tens of thousands of jobs. and of course he became governor

after having learned in the private sector how the economy works and how jobs come and go. and if you take that and you contrast it to newt gingrich's background, speaker gingrich has served for the last 30 years as a washington insider. and you know, most recently he has done some things that have proven to be -- proven him to be an unreliable conservative. you know, newt gingrich is the one who sat on the couch with nancy pelosi and shilled for al gore's liberal global warming proposal. and most recently when republicans were trying to advance a very conservative budget plan, the ryan plan, that is, newt gingrich went on and he said that it was right-wing social engineering. so if anybody in this race has a conservative issue, it's newt gingrich. >> gail gitcho, communications director of the romney campaign, thanks for taking the time. >> thank you, chris. merry christmas and happy new year. >> okay. newt gipgrich ngrich is trying past mitt romney in iowa.

but new reports showing his kind words in 2006 for the massachusetts health care law could be another setback. former pennsylvania congressman bob walker is supporting the former speaker's presidential run, and he joins us now on the phone from pennsylvania. congressman walker, that was gail gitcho, romney's communications director. she offered the following critique of speaker gingrich. washington insider. these are her words, not mine. washington insider, unreliable conservative. and that he shilled for nancy pelosi's global warming plan. what say you to any or all? go ahead. congressman. >> excuse me? >> i'm sorry. go ahead. >> no, all of which is ridiculous. the fact is that newt has been a part of the washington scene for a long period of time, but he's always been regarded as the guy who is challenging the washington establishment. and there's a long history of the washington establishment being very unhappy with newt gingrich and what he was doing because he does in fact present a conservative point of view.

as to being an unreliable conservative, newt has been a conservative leader for years. he formed the conservative opportunity society back in 1983. we were the ones who went out and gave an activist agenda to change the entire debate in washington, particularly after we won the majority in 1994 with the contract with america. it was mitt romney who refused to endorse the contract with america. it was mitt romney who refused to back the reagan-bush tickets. and the fact is that the conservative credentials are extremely strong for newt gingrich and what you have is a massachusetts moderate in the case of mitt romney. and the fact is that this is not an attack on mitt romney. it's how mitt romney has described himself on many, many occasions. that he is not a conservative. that he's a moderate. >> now, congressman walker, the "wall street journal" wrote a story this morning. you mentioned speaker gingrich has obviously been in public life for quite some time. you can argue whether that makes it a good or bad thing in the race. but it does mean he has a long

record. in '06, a time when he was out of office, he -- his consulting company wrote a newsletter in which he seemed to express support for what governor romney was doing on health care in the state of massachusetts. now, i know the gingrich campaign has said he himself didn't write this letter. but doesn't that raise questions if speaker gingrich was supportive of the health care plan back in '06 and is now -- has made it one of his lead criticisms of governor romney now. >> "the new york times" has cherry-picked some of the statements in that newsletter. the fact is the newsletter was also critical of parts of the massachusetts plan. and so while they were outlining in the newsletter things that they thought were advantageous of changing the character of health care coverage in the country, they also made it clear in the newsletter that there were parts of the program that they didn't think were going to work. so it was not an endorsement of the plan in any way. it was an assessment of the plan. >> former pennsylvania

congressman bob walker, thank you for joining us. >> okay. nice to be with you. >> can ron paul remain at the front of the pack in the final sprint to iowa? the editor in chief of the "des moines register" joins me next. plus, living in limbo. the california dream act is opening new doors to undocumented immigrants, allowing them a chance to go to college. but what happens when they graduate? this is "andrea mitchell reports," only on msnbc. [ male announcer ] little owen wanted to play, but his nose was raw and sore. achoo! [ male announcer ] and common tissue made it burn even more. ♪ puffs plus lotion is more soothing than common tissue, and it delivers our most soothing lotion for every nose issue. a nose in need deserves puffs plus lotion indeed. to give your cold a comforting scent, try puffs plus lotion with the scent of vicks. ♪ sen♪ co-signed her credit card - "buy books, not beer!" ♪ ♪ut the second at she shut the door ♪ ♪ girl started blowing up their credit score ♪ ♪ she bought a pizza party for the whole dorm floor ♪

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iowa voters may be on the verge of throwing an already muddled race into further disarray. texas congressman ron paul is locked in a three-way battle for iowa and may be gaining steam at just the right time. the cover of monday's "des moines register" says it all. "could ron paul win?" rick green is the vice president and editor of the "des moines register," and he joins us.

okay, rick. you have one minute. answer the question. seriously, tell me, why is ron paul support in iowa higher than it is in other places? what is it about ron paul that appeals to iowans? >> you know, chris, his libertarian streak i think is really resonating with a lot of the conservative iowans out here. his pledge to trim the federal spending by a trillion dollars in the first year, to not only just dismantle but to literally imploez fide five federal agenc his unusual but well-calculated strategy as relates to foreign relations and reducing our military bases overseas, there's a large contingent of iowa republicans who are really reacting and responding to what it is he's talking about. >> and he's spent -- i think something always gets overlooked. he's spent both time and significant money in the state. this is the guy who was the first person on television. is that correct? is that sort of laying the groundwork for where he is today? >> i think that's helped. i think it certainly has helped. but the other thing is that his

advertisements, his tv blitz, not only has it been sizable in the dollar amount, but chris, i've got to tell you, if you haven't seen him, his ads are incredibly edgy. screaming guitars. federal agencies that are blowing up. he's being very strong in what separates his campaign, his positions from everybody else that's in the race. and it's interesting. back in august whenever he finished second in the iowa straw poll in ames, i think it was jon stewart that said that the national media was treating ron paul like he was the 13th floor of a hotel. i will tell you from the front lines here in iowa that's not the case right now. >> and rick, i would say a great point on the ads because every single ad on television is a political ad, which it basically is at this point in iowa, you need to stand out. i want to ask you one quick question. the ron paul newsletters in which there are some extremist views espoused, he has distanced himself from them. my question to you is are people in iowa paying attention to this story? does he get asked about it?

does it matter to iowa voters or are they focused on other things as it relates to ron paul? >> you know, it hasn't bubbled up as much as i think it will in the final seven days of the campaign. i'll be real honest. they have focused more intensely on his views related to federal spending and what he wants to do in washington and basically what ron paul has successfully done is i think for a large number of republican caucusgoers he's positioned himself as the man with the -- wielding the biggest sledgehammer when he goes to washington. he would be the one who would spark and in some case detonate the most change. what will be very interesting both in terms of reporting you see in our paper, our media site, and other national reports is taking a closer look at some of these statements made in his news qulertz and how other caucusgoers pay attention to it. i will tell you that his foes, the other candidates in this race are certainly looking closely at that and trying to figure out how to leverage that to their advantage in the final seven days of the campaign. >> rick green, vice president of the "des moines register," i say

to anyone who cares about politics, demoinesregister.com, you're going to want to bookmark it. good to see you. >> thanks, chris. happy new year. >> rick sandt rum is pulling out all the stops, or should we say pops, see what we did there, in iowa. can he make it to new hampshire? this is "andrea mitchell reports." it's only on msnbc. is it because taking a step represents hope? or triumph? at genworth, we believe in taking small steps every day to keep your promises, protect what matters, and prepare for a secure financial future. no matter where you want to go, one step at a time is the only way to get there. go to genworth.com/promises.

the housing bubble that burst in 2007 is still hurting city governments across the country. the latest dip is in property taxes. cities are seeing these revenues shrink as american home values fall. a downward trend that may not tick back up for years to come. ron insana is a krngs contributcnbc contributor. joins us now. kind of a fascinating trickle-down story. what can you tell us about it? >> i think we're getting to the end of this process, chris. as was reported this morning, a new index on home prices declined again by a 3.4 year over year percentage basis.

and yes, that is affecting states, municipalities, localities and the like, who depend on property tax revenues to fund schools and the like. it's interesting, though. the town that i live in actually raised the assessment of the house in order to raise property taxes, which is something that may also be going on around the country. but i think we're closer to the bottom of this process in terms of home prices than certainly the middle or the top. and i think this may be a lingering issue for some months to come. i'm not sure it's going to be an issue for years to come, though. >> and ron, how much of this is -- i mean, i know some of it's just the hard numbers that the property tax doesn't come in -- the smaller city governments just don't have the money. but how much of it is perception? we've gotten some better economic news. i don't want to say good economic news, but better economic news, unemployment rate dropping, things like that. once people start feeling better, is it a possibility that this thing that may look like it's going to take years in fact to your point takes a lot less time because people start -- the economy starts moving again in housing? >> as long as people start

buying and you start seeing some -- i wouldn't say bidding wars for houses like we saw in 2005, 6, and 7. but as long as prices stabilize and begin to edge higher. and i suspect there's a good reason to believe that may start happening. consumer confidence as reported today was up rather sharply. but you do need employment gains to drive gains in residential real estate. but from a contrary perspective, you know, i think too many people are bearish on real estate, and we're starting to see activity in some of the hardest-hit areas of the country, whether it's a phoenix, whether it's a miami, whether it's even a detroit, where i'm told because manufacturing has picked up so much there are actually small bidding wars for homes in blighted regions like that. so i think it's -- we're nearing the end. and typically toward the end of these you get the worst headlines of the cycle. >> right. not an insignificant political issue, too ron, because i know nevada, a huge swing state, housing foreclosures there tops the nation. ron insana, thank you. >> thank you, chris. happy new year. >> now to the political briefing. former pennsylvania senator rick santorum is one of the

candidates whose fate may be decided by where he finishes in the iowa caucuses next week. >> what i have been saying to the people of iowa as we head down the stretch here and people are making their decisions and are stepping forward, and that is don't defer your judgment do all of these national polls or the pundits. what i say to the folks of iowa is to lead. you've asked for the responsibility to be first. don't defer your judgment. lead. >> roger simon is politico's chief political columnist. i recognize that background anywhere. he's at w.h.o. in des moines. roger, thank you for joining me. you heard rick santorum there, which is essentially making the ignore all national polls where i'm really low and let's pay attention here. the question here is who has the most -- let's start with to gain in iowa? who if they show well could really bump up and make a story out of one that we're not paying attention to right now? >> well, if either bachmann or

santorum do well, it will be a story we're not paying attention to right now because we don't expect them to do that well. if you had to ask a group of reporters who they thought might drop out after the iowa caucuses, those two names might lead the list. but look, we could be wrong. we've been wrong before. they would be the biggest surprises. among the top of the tier, you know, it's really going to be a race between newt gingrich, between mitt romney and ron paul. and i can tell you the other two campaigns are raising expectations like crazy for ron paul. they want reporters to go into caucus night thinking that if ron paul does not win a real victory that he has screwed up in iowa. >> and there's benefit obviously, goes without saying, for them to do that because ron paul does not have, as we were talking about with rick green, he does not have the support going forward. but i wanted to talk to you too about -- let's talk about mitt

romney, roger. i feel like he's the overlooked man. he's going to spend three days in the state starting later this afternoon. he came in second in 2008. he spent $10 million and lots and lots of time there. he spent lots less time there, though he is spending millions of dollars on television. what are the stakes for romney? i had a romney person tell me a few days ago, if we finish in the top three we'll be just fine. do you agree? >> it'll be just fine if they're closed grouply. if they're grouped closely, sorry. because he will be going next into new hampshire, where it is assumed he will win. he has a double-digit lead. so we may not have a clear victor after the first two contests. and really we're not supposed to. we may not have a clear victor after the first three. but should romney pull off a surprise win here and then win in new hampshire, he may be very strong. looking forward to the next couple of contests. >> we may have a shorter race

than we think if romney wins both of those. roger simon, who will be in iowa for the duration, thank you. >> thank you, chris. breaking news here. nebraska democratic senator ben nelson will not seek re-election in 2012. the two-term senator had been considered a top republican target heading into 2012. a tough break for democrats in a very tough state for them to hold in 2012. to the gulf, we knew it would take time, but we were determined to see it through. today, while our work continues, i want to update you on the progress: bp has set aside 20 billion dollars to fund economic and environmental recovery. we're paying for all spill- related clean-up costs. and we've established a 500 million dollar fund so independent scientists can study the gulf's wildlife and environment for ten years. thousands of environmental samples from across the gulf have been analyzed by independent labs under the direction of the us coast guard. i'm glad to report all beaches and waters are open

for everyone to enjoy. and the economy is showing progress with many areas on the gulf coast having their best tourism seasons in years. i was born here, i'm still here and so is bp. we're committed to the gulf for everyone who loves it, and everyone who calls it home.

topping the headlines today, more than 100 sears and kmart stores are closing after posting poor holiday sales. the retailer says the move will generate almost $170 million for the company. sears would not say how many jobs will be lost. the obama administration knows the key to re-election will be a recovering economy. and the latest economic data are helping the president's 2012 chances. a new gallup daily tracking poll shows the president's approval rating is now at 47%.

a high mark for the past six months. cnbc chief washington correspondent john harwood joins us. so john, 2011 has not been all that good of news for president obama on the economic front, but it looks like things might be turning around. do we have any sense on how the white house feels about these numbers? >> i think they feel the same way. they closed strong. just like mitt romney closed strong on the republican side in 2011. and the reason is look at what happened on the payroll tax fight in congress just a couple of weeks ago. that was the closest thing you get in politics to an absolutely clean direct shot on the quarterback because you had republicans divided, you had the president putting himself in the position of being the mainstream politician, going after the out of the mainstream house republicans. and in addition to the political benefit, he gets the economic benefit because that deal put money in the hands of workers and money in the hands of the unemployed by extending unemployment benefits. so the president is hoping to get strong economic growth in

the fourth quarter, well over 3% is what's currently forecast. supposed to slow down in 2012. but as you were just discussing earlier with ron insana, you get things going in a virtuous cycle and sometimes things accelerate quicker than you expect. >> right. perception sometimes matters as much as reality. john, the other thing i've been fascinated by with this white house is the president, he went to kansas a few weeks ago. he mentioned the phrase "middle class" 18 times in basically a 50-minute speech. they clearly think they have something here. barack obama's not a natural populist. but you've seen a little more populism out of him. does that account at all do we think for why he's bumped up in numbers since october? >> well, certainly we've seen from our nbc "wall street journal" polling that the concerns of the occupy wall street movement, even if people didn't feel very positively about the protesters themselves, the idea that the economy in the 21st century is geared toward people at the top and not

rewarding people in the middle class is broadly shared. we saw 75% of the american people saying they thought the economic system was out of balance in favor of people at the top. that provides an opening for president obama to make the case, hey, i'm the guy who's going to at least temper that trend, do something about it and try to put republicans on the wrong side, although mitt romney has taken care to include a lot of middle-class rhetoric in his policy proposals, his tax proposals as well. so there will be -- if mitt romney's the nominee, there will be a fight over the middle-class vote. >> no question. john harwood, thank you. >> you bet. >> mitt romney is trying to prove you don't have to spend time on the ground to win in iowa. in fact, with just a week to go before the caucuses, romney was making his pitch in new hampshire instead of the hawkeye state this morning. >> i don't know that you can count on polls. but i can count on rooms full of enthusiastic people. and i find that everywhere i go in new hampshire.icreasingly op

that we'll have someone who can beat president obama, and i hope to be that very person. >> mark halpern is editor at large for "time" magazine and msnbc political analyst. he's also probably spent more time in iowa than mitt romney this election cycle. mark, you followed these campaigns for a very long time. this has been an odd and different one. romney is nowhere near the presence he was in 2008. but could it still work for him with a week left? >> it easily could, chris. you know, to mash up a couple of old expressions, you'd rather be lucky than wicked smart. and romney and his campaign have been both. >> that's new hampshire. >> they've been very smart about how they've played played expectations here. they've been very smart about not playing up expectations too much but doing a lot of behind-the-scenes work. and they've been lucky because no one has emerged here as a very strong candidate. i've said for a while that i've thought the most likely outcome, not a prediction but the most likely outcome would be mitt

romney winning iowa, winning new hampshire and wrapping this up. and that seems today more true than it was just a few weeks ago. >> now, mark, a guy you're familiar with, john heilman, your co-author of "game change" about the '08 campaign, john heilman's got a piece about romney in "new york" magazine in which there's a background quote, a quote without attribution, attributed to a romney adviser saying this -- "the dynamic couldn't be better for us. i don't see any scenario where we're not the nominee." so that's obviously less effective expectation managing. is that the sentiment within the romney campaign? >> well, look, they've been very cautious about looking for threats. rick perry is probably the person they saw as the biggest threat after tim paw lepty got out of the race. they've never viewed newt gingrich as much of a threat. and they never viewed jon huntsman as much of a threat. today i think a rational analysis is the two most effective nominees besides romney are gingrich and huntsman and boston doesn't view either of these guys as a threat.

so i think from their point of view it's hard to create a scenario where romney is not the nominee, but they're realistic and they know that until voters actually vote something could go wrong. they may have to fight for this. but they do think over the long run mitt romney will be the nominee. i have no doubt about that. but that's what they think. >> the pesky voters actually voting conundrum. thank you, mark. >> thanks, chris. >> so what's next in iowa? we're joined by democratic strategist tad devine and republican strategist kevin madden, who i should mention is a romney supporter. okay, kevin, you laugh to yourself when i read that quote about this is essentially in the bag. you worked very closely on the romney campaign in '08. is that not the sentiment because to mark's point romney is the best financed guy with the best organization across the country and across the early states. is that a sentiment that they hold if they don't say publicly? >> well, look, i think the best campaign staffers always treat themselves like a night watchman. you always have to assume tonight is the night we're going

to get robbed. >> boy scouts, be prepared. >> right. that is the most important thing. and i think what you have there is a little bit more of an amped up sentiment of what i think is the real sentiment, which is that you have to ask yourself in a campaign oftentimes would i trade my position with anybody else in this campaign? and in this particular instance i don't think boston would. but you still have to earn it. and this is a campaign from the very beginning that has recognized it's going to be a hard-fought battle. polls are going to tighten all the way through every single contest. it has to be -- and like you said, voters have a way of figuring these these things out for themselves, and i think the campaign's very aware of that. >> it may abe lesson. we always say you've got to run once in the republican party to win. may be a lesson romney learned last time. because i remember we were talking about he was up in iowa, up in new hampshire in '08 and then the bottom fell out. so run all the way through the tape. tad devine, a lot of -- we're talking about how much time the candidates are spending in the state. but they're also spending tons and tons of money. >> right. >> rick perry in make us great again, which is his super pac,

$6 million. mitt romney and restore our future, ws his alliance super pac, $3.9 million. newt gingrich, by the way, $473,000. i would say michele bachmann, who we don't spend a lot of time talking about, $162,000. hasn't run an ad since august. remarkable. tad devine, how much -- you're a media consultant. so i already know the answer to that. how much do ads matter? we're focusing on they're going to all these places, 44 downtowny tours, but in the end most voters are getting their messages from ads. can newt gingrich win a war in which he's being outspent 8-1 by romney or even bigger by rick perry? >> no. >> thank you for joining us. >> they're not the whole ball game in the presidential campaign. the truth is there's going to be exhaustive coverage of this campaign. but if you're getting buried like gingrich is right now by television ads and you don't have an answer for it, you're not going to be able to break through. and he's got to figure out a way to get a message out. now, one solid week of advertising for gingrich with real money behind it could get a message, but it's not going to be a message of him and his wife

sitting in front of a christmas tree. that's going to get them nowhere. >> and in some ways i'm fascinated by this this is the problem newt gingrich had at the start of the campaign. the problem that may doom him doesn't have enough money. kevin, i want to talk to you. compare '08 strategy versus 2012 ad strategy. mitt romney was everywhere in iowa, both on television and in the state last time around. this time around much less so, including ad spending. he's spent a lot but restore our fouch, his pac has spent far more money than mitt romney has. a smart strategy for him now because he's already a known commodity? what's the thinking behind the shortened ad campaign? >> two main points. look, in 2008 we lost. so you have to have a different strategy in 2012. >> unless you want to lose again. >> right. but i think the biggest thing that was driving us as a campaign was the need to get known, create awareness, then stimulate demand in 2008. sought money that was spent was really an investment in name i.d., introducing him to voters who at the beginning of that

campaign governor romney's -- he was at 4% in national polls. nobody knew him. so we spent an enormous amount of money just getting known not only in new hampshire -- i'm sorry, not only in iowa but new hampshire and south carolina. >> and can i quickly follow up? romney is spending three days in iowa, though he's in new hampshire now, but said recently he's headed back to new hampshire. is mitt romney still trying to downplay iowa and what happens there? >> well, look, i think the idea is that unlike other candidates he doesn't have to win iowa. but he does want to compete across all these early primary states. that's the most important thing, that this is a campaign that was built from the beginning to be a hunt for delegates all the way through a large part of the calendar versus just one momentum-building win and then let's see what else happens to the other domino of states that come after. >> and tad, quickly, do you buy that? does mitt romney need to win iowa or not? quickly. >> no. he doesn't need to win iowa. he needs to win new hampshire. and if he doesn't it's going to be over fast for him. >> i totally agree. tad devine, kevin madden, thank you both.

we continue to follow the breaking news that democratic senator ben nelson of nebraska announcing he will not seek re-election in 2012. what that means for the balance of power in the senate, next on "andrea mitchell reports," only on msnbc. ♪ like so many great pioneers before me, guided only by a dream. i'm embarking on a journey of epic proportion. i will travel, from sea to shining sea, through amber waves of grain, and i won't stop until i've helped every driver in america save hundreds on car insurance. well i'm out of the parking lot. that's a good start. geico, fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent, or more on car insurance. and more. if you replace 3 tablespoons of sugar a day with splenda®, you'll save 100 calories a day. that could help you lose up to 10 pounds in a year. and now get even more with splenda® essentials, the only line of sweeteners with a small boost of fiber,

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we're following the breaking news from nebraska. democratic senator ben nelson has decided to retire, passing up what was sure to be a lengthy and difficult battle o'keep his senate seat next year. mark murray is nbc news deputy political director. he flew up here. this is a fascinating story because we've been wondering about ben nelson for a while. nebraska obviously not friendly territory for democrats. do we know anything about who democrats will try to slot in next? >> well, chris, we do know this, that a former nebraska democratic senator bob kerrey is considering a run. you mention the word difficult. it was going to be very difficult for democrats to hold on to this seat had ben nelson actually stayed and run for

re-election. it's going to be difficult for them to still be able to win it, probably even harder. but if they can get someone like bob kerrey, at least it makes it competitive for them. that would be -- >> a known name. >> right. that would be a huge recruit. if they're not able to get bob kerrey, this is something you almost kind of give to the republicans. >> one thing -- two things i would say with bob kerrey. one, we always talk about him, in 2008 when there was an open seat, they floated it and he didn't run. number two, he lives in new york city. he's the president of the new school. >> right. >> not exactly credentials for nebraska. one other point i wanted to make, though, mark. the democratic committee, the arm charged with re-electing senators, they spent over a million dollars on ben nelson earlier this summer just to have him decide not to run. i can only imagine grimaces inside that building. >> well, chris, they delivered a message to a lot of members who might have been on the fence of running in 2012, let us know early if you are going to retire so we don't have to spend that type of money that we know what everyone's going to be. look, this was a race i think in

addition to north dakota, was going to be the democrats' toughest race to be able to hold on to in 2012. but you're right. they probably would have liked to have gotten this word from ben nelson a while ago. and it probably prompted -- i ended up getting an e-mail from a high-ranking democratic senate aide who said ben nelson not running removes the person who was going to be the most problematic democratic senator for the whole caucus, not some kind words coming from another democrat. >> yeah, i can't imagine they are happy. and this doesn't make it impossible but it certainly makes it more difficult. mark murray, thanks for being on the spot. >> thanks, chris. the immigration debate entered the 2012 campaign conversation during a mitt romney event in new hampshire this morning. >> if i'm president, my view is that those who've come here illegally should not be given an advantage, a favored status in terms of becoming a permanent resident. >> many undocumented students who came to this country as children are succeeding academically but will be unable to use that knowledge here in the u.s. when their education

ends. steven maganini wrote a piece on california's version of the dream act for the "sacramento bee." steven, thanks for joining us. i want to start out, what are we seeing -- obviously, dream act a huge debate nationally. what are we seeing as it begins to be implemented in california, the successes and the problems? >> well, california has what may be considered the most liberal dream act in the nation because the kids that call themselves dreamers can now compete for both private and public scholarship money. and we're talking about thousands of these students that if they complete high school in california and do well academically will be allowed to compete on equal footing with native-born californians. >> now, stephen, i have a question on -- the piece, first of all, let me say the piece, "dream act students live in limbo," monday, december 26th, greet peace, long piece. i've read the whole thing.

but one piece about it that i was struck by, yes, they're getting more financial aid. yes, they're able to attend state universities with in-state tuition, but no, the path to citizenship. and that for a lot of these high-achieving students, they graduate magna cum laude, they graduate sum ma cum laude, they're at the top of their class but they're worried about being able to work in this country. how big a problem? and is there something either the government or a private entity can do about it? >> well, it really is a catch 22. because they can enter law school here. they can enter medical school. but unless congress changes the law to legalize them they're going to really be behind the 8 ball. they won't be able to get loans backed by the federal government. they really won't be able to become doctors and lawyers in full standing here in california. >> that's fascinating.

>> or around the nation. >> let me recommend again, a great piece, if you haven't checked out sacbee.com. thank you, stephen. >> thank you. >> president obama got up closed personal with a very young constituent this weekend. the president and first lady were visiting with service members and posing for photographs on christmas day in hawaii when an 8-month-old baby stuck his hand in the president's mouth. he joked that the baby saw his big nose and wanted a piece of it. also vying for top billing in the cute video department and i have a cute video department, what call this unbearably cute video. a baby polar bear from denmark who is being cared for around the clock after his mother couldn't produce milk. who isn't 5 week old bear made his debut on the "today" show this morning. try bayer advanced aspirin. it's not the bayer aspirin you know.

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which political story will make headlines in the next 24 hours. my friend joins me now. newt gingrich in iowa as we speak. everybody but john huhsman who is skipping the state will be in the state. it will be a busy next seven days. >> good for the iowa economy as if the ad buys were not enough. they will be there and every political reporter except for you and me will be in the state. they will be all over the state. there won't be a single corner of the state. because it's taken so long to take off, this is a rare moment. it's not like four years ago where you can go weeks and weeks. it's the first time. >> i feel like i say this, but it matters. there so many people who are undecided and yo-yoing around. >> it's incredible and all the events will be about jobs and

the economy. we will hear that word all over again in the eastern part of the state. people have been able to tune out and now they have done this. >> no choice. thank you. >> a quick plug for myself and check out the fixed blog and if you want to follow me on twitter, i promise it will be fun or your money back, i guess. that does it for this edition of "andrea mitchell reports." follow the show online and on twitter@mitchell reports. my colleague craig melvin has a look at what's next on "news nation." good afternoon. coming up next on "news nation," gruesome new details in the murder of a 9-year-old girl in indiana. what her baby-sitter and trusted neighbors allegedly told the police. we will talk about that. countdown to iowa. days away and it's getting nasty

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now seven days and counting. preparing closing arguments with the caucuses just around the corner. newt gingrich speak live in iowa this hour in did you buick, iowa. it is getting nasty between newt and mitt, trading barb here. in the final days before voters cast their ballots. president obama's approval ratings are taking off after vacation in ha