latest ppp poll showing paul in first place in iowa with mitt romney on his heels. reshuffling the deck. romney and paul vie for the lead in iowa, while a surprise contender jumps into third. conspiracy theory. venezuela's hugo chavez makes an outrageous suggestion about cloak-and-dagger actions by the united states. and holy nativity! holy men clash at one of christianity's holiest churches. good morning, everyone. i'm lynn berry. those stories and more are straight ahead. this is "first look" on msnbc.

and we begin this morning with campaign shake-up. with iowa's caucuses now just five days away, new poll numbers show ron paul is closing in on front-runner mitt romney, and those same numbers show a sudden surge from backpacker rick santorum. nbc's brian mooar joins us from washington with the latest on all of this. brian, good morning. >> reporter: thanks, lynn. iowa's social conservatives appear to still be shopping around, and that is good news for mitt romney. five days before iowa, the gop presidential deck has been reshuffled again, and this time, mitt romney's on top. >> this is an exciting time. we're going to take back the white house, thanks to you guys. thank you! >> reporter: ron paul has slumped to second but picked up a key endorsement from michele bachmann's state co-chair. bachmann says her one-time supporter was offered a lot of money to switch sides. he denies it. >> i believe that we have an

>> how many times do you hear this as a conservative? don't try to impose your morality on us? >> reporter: newt gingrich is now on a slide, and he's lowering expectations. >> what do you have to do here in iowa? >> you have to be in the top three or four -- >> but you've got to win either iowa or new hampshire, don't you feel? >> or south carolina. >> reporter: it shows that iowa social conservatives are still looking for the one. santorum and paul appear to be splitting that social conservative vote, but as we know, a lot can happen in a couple of days. lynn? >> that's right. brian, thanks so much. elsewhere, the united states had a strong response wednesday to a second threat from iran to disrupt the world's oil supply, that is, if the west pursues sanctions against tehran over its nuclear program. an iranian admiral boasted on state television that closing down the only sea outlet for

crucial oil fields in and around the persian gulf would be "very easy" for his country's naval forces. the bahrain-based u.s. 5th fleet said in an unmistakable e-mail warning wednesday that it would not allow any threat to the traffic in the strait of hormuz, vowing to protect freedom of navigation in the international waters, saying "any disruption will not be tolerated." elsewhere, even with outside monitors on the ground in syria now, reports of deadly, new violence continue to emerge. activists claim government troops have killed nearly 40 people in just two days since theç monitors arrived. and yesterday, some of those monitors had to take cover themselves. neil connery of our english broadcast partner itn shows us the dramatic images. >> reporter: gunfire that goes through the streets of homs. this video shows what reportedly

happened when protesters tried to reach the arab league visiting the city, but observers saw none of this to begin with. they also didn't see this. syrian forces opening fire on protesters. and yet, the head of the arab league mission describes the situation as reassuring. such is the anger here, protesters placed the dead body of a 5-year-old boy on an arab league car. they say he was shot in the back by syrian forces. it's impossible to independently verify their claim. but today, some observers were taken to a mosque where ahmed's body lay. they took photographs and spoke to some of those who claim to have witnessed the incident. with the ongoing arab league mission visit, state television announced the release of some detainees. >> authorities announce the release of 755 persons --

>> reporter: but human rights groups estimate as many as 40,000 are being held. this afternoon, the arab league mission had its first real taste of what is happening. the syrian regimeç says it's fighting armed terrorist gangs but hope the arab league can succeed in resolving syria's crisis nine months since this uprising started. neil connery. now here's your "first look" at some of the other news going on around america today. north dakota firefighters went to the edge of an icy river all to make this life-saving grab. they rescued a black labrador after it slid past his owner's electric fence and went right into that freezing water. the dog is in good condition. a texas man didn't get away with much of anything during a recent robbery attempt. surveillance cameras did catch the thief stealing a cash register, but it was empty at

this fast food restaurant. police later found the suspect and arrested him on theft charges. at various locations around the country, nursing mothers held what they called nurse-ins at target stores. this all started last month when a nursing mother in texas said she was treated rudely by confrontational target employees who removed her to a fitting room. she since has started a facebook page which launched the nationwide demonstration against restrictive corporate breast feeding policies. and finally, 40-degree weather didn't stop one group of friends from having a good time on a new york lake. they braved frigid conditions to feed what they call their water skiing addiction. hopefully, in some wet suits there. and now for a look at your national weather, we turn to nbc meteorologist bill karins. he has your weather channel forecast. he's little more of an expert on this. frigid, 40 degrees? i don't know if it's technically frigid. >> by their standards? no. >> it's new york! >> typically that lake should be

frozen by now, soç they're jus taking advantage of some balmy weather. good morning, everyone. that balmy weather's not going to last for long. it doesn't feel like it this morning. we'll have a little, tiny shot, really a one-day-only event of cold air moving into northern new england. windchill in albany is 2, upstate new york has negative windchill, northern vermont, burlington, much of northern new york. this is not all that bad. yes, it's a cold morning, but if you have the hat, the gloves, the scarf, you'll be okay. windchills about 29 in d.c., so that's not too bad. really from new york city northwards you'll feel it. the coldest spot i've seen in the country for windchills, saranac lake, new york, typically one of the coldest spots, minus 17 this morning. notice we're mild through the northwest. middle of the country, no problems there with cold air, at least for now. so, the big storm system that's cranking up in the maritimes is responsible for bringing that little shot of cold air down through new england.

there's a little light snow trying to move through the great lakes. there's another little clipper system behind it. in the wintertime, when you hear clipper system, usually that means it's fast-moving, it's going to put down a little bit of snow with some cold air behind it, and that's now in montana and that will move across the country tomorrow right into areas friday through new england. so, as far as the forecast today, there's some light snow out there through wisconsin, maybe enough just to make the trees look pretty. up around duluth, maybe an inch or so. same forecast here for green bay, upper peninsula of michigan and also through michigan its f itself. in chicago, temperatures should be mild enough that you're not going to see anything sticking, but you may see a few snowflakes today. as we go through the afternoon, though, it does warm up to about 45. and look how warm it is. still very unusual, kansas city at 58.ç this is going to go down as one of the warmest decembers in our country that we've seen. many areas in new england, this is going to be the warmest december in a little over 100 years, which is pretty crazy stat. and as we go to tomorrow, still mild air across the country, but lynn, i want to give people a little sneak preview as far as the arctic air goes. a shot of it comes down from the

north. you see it in the white and blue here. so, the beginning of next year, the beginning of next year, beginning of next week, it looks like we're back to reality, where we should be for this time of year. >> all right, bill, thanks so much. coming up, euro jitters return, gold falls again, and a big bungle by "the new york times." your "first look" at this morning's business headlines is straight ahead. the heat get a scare, a pair of unbeatens in college basketball and a picture worth 1,000 laughs. you're watching "first look" on msnbc.

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welcome back to "first look." i'm lynn berry, and here's some of the top stories making news this morning. north korea has officially declared kim jong-un the country's new supreme leader. the announcement came during the memorial for his late father, kim jong-il, which, like his funeral the day before, brought thousands into the streets. venezuelan president hugo

chavez is suggesting the u.s. may somehow be responsible for latin american leaders developing cancer. yes, you heard me correctly. chavez's comments followed news that argentina's president has a treatable form of thyroid cancer. chavez had a tumor removed from his pelvis in june. a turkish news agency says the country's air force has killed at least 20 in raids against suspected kurdish rebels on the country's border with iraq. another news agency quotes villagers there, however, as saying the dead are actually smugglers that turkish military mistook for kurdish rebels. my, how times have changed. the spanish royal family is publishing its salaries çonlin. king juan carlos earned $382,000 this year, plus expenses. his son, prince felipe, earned about half that. and peace in bethlehem? not quite. dozens of monks brawled

yesterday, turning brooms into weapons at the traditional site of jesus' birth after members of the greek and armenian clergy accused each other of encroaching on their part of the church during the annual cleaning. and now here is your first look at how wall street will kick off the day. the dow opens at 12,151 after falling 139 points yesterday. the s&p fell 15 points, the nasdaq dropped 35. taking a look at overseas trading this morning. in tokyo, the nikkei was down 24 points, while in hong kong, the hang seng lost 120. well, new signs of trouble in europe drove stocks here lower and u.s. treasuries higher wednesday. the s&p 500 fell after five straight days of gains, backing into negative territory for the year. the downward spike was accentuated by extremely low volume. alcoa and caterpillar led the dow lower. in europe, data shows banks

were hoarding cash recently injected by the european central bank rather than lending it out, as hoped, a sign that those banks may be in worse shape than previously thought. on that news, the euro hit an 11-month low against the dollar and a 10-year low against japan's yen. euro worries hit bank stocks hard here with bank of america and regions financial leading lower as stocks lost.ç investors seeking safety drove bond prices higher. the u.s. ten-year treasury yield fell below 2%. oil fell almost $2, under $100 a barrel on saudi promises to offset any loss from a threatened iranian blockade. gold fell 2%, closing at the lowest level in more than five months. elsewhere, the national science foundation awarded lockheed martin a $2 billion contract to maintain the support infrastructure for antarctic research. and finally, yesterday, "the new york times" thought it sent

an e-mail to a few hundred subscribers who recently canceled, offering the paper at half price for 16 weeks. well, instead, the offer went to 8.6 million addresses. initially, the "times" honored the discount but stopped that by early afternoon. the paper won't say how much the e-mail gaffe will cost the company. how would you like to be that guy that hit the send button? in health news, according to a new study, older people with high levels of omega-3 fatty acids and vitamins b, c and d in their blood do better on cognitive tests than those with lower levels. on the other hand, transfats were found to be bad for older brain power. and according to the study's author, that was the most consistent finding in the study. for more information on this and other health stories, you can check out the health page at msnbc.com. well, coming up, last-minute college football bowl drama and late nba thrills between the bobcats and the heat. plus, in college hoop

action, michigan state looks to knock off unbeaten indiana. your "first look" at sports is straight ahead. you're watching "first look" on msnbc.

welcome back to "first look." i'm lynn berry. and in sports, last night's schedule featured two top 20 matchups on the college hardwood. here's nbc mario solis with an early look at all your sports headlines. >> hey there. good morning. yesterday there were six unbeaten teams in college basketball.

now there are four. let's start in kentucky. number three louisville had no answer for georgetown's marquell starks, scoring 16 of his 20 in the second half. porter gives them the lead in the final minutes with the tip-in. georgetown knocks off louisville 71-68. number 15 indiana also lost to 17th-ranked michigan state. keith appling scores a career-high 25 to rally the spartans in the second. brandon woods with the finishing touches. michigan state runs all over indiana, 80-65. to the nba, the heat got a scare from the bobcats.ç charlotte down two with about 20 seconds to play. gerald henderson drills the three for the lead. bobcats up one with 12 seconds left. that's enough time for dwyane wade to work his magic, cashes in the bank shot for the win. heat escape with a 96-95 win. college football. cal and number 22 texas in the holiday bowl. david ash with a bomb to marquise goodwin. that's the difference. longhorns take the lead and win

21-10. wild finish to the military bowl. air force down seven with under a minute to play when tim jefferson finds zach kouth for the 33-yard touchdown. they try to pull off the fake and it backfires. the ball is fumbled and rolls out of bounds. the falcons crash and burn. toledo holds on to win 41-42. and finally, football players are often referred to as some of the toughest athletes in the world, but one player met his match at the happiest place on earth. oregon ducks' lamichael james has a look of terror on space mountain at disneyland. let's hope he's not as afraid of the wisconsin badgers next week in the rose bowl. that's a look at sports. i'm mario solis. now for another look at the weather, bill karins. that kind of reminds me of my face in the morning before we go into hair and makeup. it's like, what? what? >> you have to know where the cameras are. >> yes, yeah. >> at all times. >> luckily, there aren't any in

there. >> he'll never live that down. and you're beautiful, don't worry about it. good morning, everyone. as far as temperatures go, northern new england, you are off to a very cold start, probably one of the coldest mornings you've had yet. windchill on the nasty side. negative numbers northern vermont, new hampshire and maine. we're at 2 in albany. many of the subu$ the big cities are down in the single digits, so a very cold mortgage. as we go into the afternoon, just snow showers buffalo, possibly pittsburgh and erie, cleveland, chicago and detroit. we're fine and beautiful much of the country, though. i want to give everyone a sneak peek in chicago. lynn, i mentioned it's going to be cold. high of 24 as we go into the new year. so, there is some very cold air out there on the way. >> all right, bill. thank you so much. well, coming up, which star is literally nashing her teeth? plus, rumors about trouble in paradise for one of show biz's biggest couples. your "first look" at entertainment is straight ahead. you're watching "first look" on msnbc.

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welcome back to "first look." former pennsylvania senator arlen specter isn't afraid to change things up. this will be the understatement of the day. in 2009, the republican became a democrat. well, now the former politician is trying his hand at stand-up comedy. yep. last night, msnbc's lawrence o'donnell shows views a sample of specter's slightly risque bipartisan humor from an open mike appearance in philadelphia. take a listen. >> bill clinton's a friend of mine because i was a friend of his. i voted not to impeach him. [ laughter ] and that's a hell of a thing to do, considering the evidence.

i called clinton up on his 65th birthday, and i said, "bill, congratulations on being 65. how do you feel?" he said, "arlen, i feel like a teenager. the problem is, i can't find one." herman cain has had really quite a checkered career. a nine, nine and nine, and more women came out of the woodwork than thereç was wood. and what people don't know is cain had a longstanding problem since he was an adolescent. no matter how hard his teachers tried, they couldn't persuade herman cain that harass was one word. >> bill's face! i wish you could see it. all right, "lean forward" with the last word each night as host lawrence o'donnell -- >> check that off the bucket list and don't do it again. >> very good point. he has the most compelling stories of the day. that's "the last word with lawrence o'donnell," week nights at 10:00 p.m. eastern only on

msnbc, the place for politics, not comedy. we're going to keep it straight here. >> wow. all right, welcome back. it is time now for entertainment news. and megan fox has been grinding her teeth, and apparently, it has nothing to do with michael bay. that is the "transformers" director who fired her. the "hollywood reporter" says fox is wearing a sports mouth guard because her tattoo removal sessions to laser off marilyn monroe are incredibly painful. apparently, she's clinching her jaw so hard, she's endangering her teeth. >> i thought it was women's rugby. >> no, i don't think so. katy perry photographed in hawaii without bo russell brand and her wedding ring is fueling rumors of some trouble. "us weekly" reports a source saying a mega fight between the two led them to spend their holidays apart with brand heading to england. and "e" news reports bradley cooper is involved with actress zoey zeldana. her spokesperson dismissed the

rumors, but a source says the two are dating. don't sources have to be over 18, like, totally? >> not anymore. >> i'm lynn berry. this is "first look" on msnbc. stay tuned. "way too early" is next. mitt romney's been awfully careful these months not to raise expectations in iowa, but consider them raised as he sits in good position, five days away now from the vote, followed closer, though, by rick santorum, who shoots up in a new poll. the question is, where does all this leave that guy, newt gingrich? ron paul, meanwhile, right there with mitt romney, has now poached one of the campaign co-chairs from michele bachmann, the winner of last summer's straw poll in the state. the question is, why did he jump off the bachmann ship? we'll have a live report on all this from iowa. and iran's tough talk about cutting off the supply of oil through the strait of hormuz gets tougher as the united states responds with a promise to keep the shipping lane open. the question is, where is this war of words headed?