down 19 points and trailing a surging rick santorum who is ahead of him in third. >> absolutely we should be concerned about the electability. i am the only one with the track record of winning elections in tough states. i have a million more registered democrats than republicans. i was able to win the state of pennsylvania, something a republican hasn't done for president since 1988. >> we are pretty much where we were six months ago. everything is up in the air in iowa. live in cedar rapids and it's getting down to the wire because the candidates are going at break neck speed. the schedules are brutal. >> that's exactly right. everything may be up in the air, but we have been on the ground for the last several days and it's pretty

weç speak to republicans and s we are making the mind up. to look at the surging numbers. they are hoping this is another cafe and they came here this morning and it was an overflow crowd and they had to open up the tents outside a recent greet the crowd and an older crowd here. one thing that has been familiar with the last several days is romney invited his wife ann up to speak almost every occasion, paying tribute to the family values and a 42-year marriage and five sons. a lot of patriotic things here. they tried to position themselves above the fray. one of his favorite songs, america the beautiful. the day the former utah governor joins romney on the campaign trail.

they are turning the olympics around as well. one sign of confidence in the campaign is caucus night next tuesday they will be here in iowa and remain until wednesday morning to do live television introduce that demonstrates their confidence that they will do well. it would have been easier and safer to go to new hampshire to hold the interviews from there. >> peter alexander, thank you so much. we want to bring in a reporter for real clear politics at java joe's in des moines. good morning. if you look at the change in the last month, romney up, gingrich way down, any way you slice it and you heard what peter had to say about mitt romney staying there, is this the best news yet or could an unsettled field potentially mean trouble? >> for romney? >> yeah.

>> right now we are looking at almost a tie between ron paul and mitt romney. it depends on how their campaigns organize on election night. it's looking like mitt romney's campaign is just about to get there, but ron paul as an extraordinary organization and it will be down to the wire for both of them. >> it's interesting when you look behind the numbers in the poll, 41% think romney has the best chance to beat president obama. i wonder if in the end among the electability issue we heard from rick santorum is not behind mitt romney's numbers. >> electability is a bigger deal this cycle than it has been in the past. i am hearing from evangelical voters where they are heavily concentrated. there is such an urgency that it's not the same dynamic than it was four years ago when mike

huckabee won. they care more about the debt and the deficit and that's why they are starting to come around to mitt romney and less concerned about his religious background and social issues and want someone who can handle the economy and beat barack obama on that issue. >> there is an interesting note on that poll. it may under estimate ron paul support. it only surveyed likely gopç voters, but given the enthusiasm of his supporters and one of the writers was talking about watching c-span and the people mobbing trying to get their picture taken with him, i wonder if nate silver is right about that. what's your experience with ron paul supporters? >> i was at the same event and the hope line to meet him was so long, i couldn't believe it. i haven't seen a rope line that long since obama was here four years ago and he had a lot of supporters want to meet him too.

with a lot of the ron paul supporter, they vote and are not happy. >> ron paul supporters voted for barack obama? i couldn't see two people more different idea logically. >> one would think, but it's the sentiment and this change and you talked to a lot of people who voted for obama and they say they are changing the voter registration and they have become republicans and they are going to caucus for ron paul. there were many of them at that event. >> i can't let you go without talking about this fall by newt gingrich. down double-digits in the poll. he was talking to chuck todd, trying to downplay expectations of what's important. >> either iowa or new hampshire.

>> south carolina. everyone who won in south carolina wins. every single one. >> it will be a long 18ç days r some people. >> yeah, but chris, i think the interesting thing siwant to know who will campaign in new hampshire. two debates in new hampshire. what we might see is mitt romney and john huntsman. i think some of the candidates who stay in the race are spending time in south carolina because that's where they think the fight will be. in south carolina a couple of weeks later, gingrich is leading in the polls. that might be where the fight comes to an end. >> how is the coffee at java joe's? >> i haven't had it. i'm about to. >> thank you so much. we appreciate it. >> thank you. >> i'm amazed by this number. we have 100,000 voters expected

to caucus. should that state get to be the first in the nation? how about a state more representative of america. we will talk about that. did you hear about this set back for michele bachmann. she was not happy. her iowa state chairman defected to ron paul saying paul was the most conservative of the top tier candidates. >> i will help in iowa and beyond. we will take ron. >> paul: the way to the white house in 2012. >> state senator ken sorenson was with bachmann hours before he jumped ship and didn't speak to the crowd in that event because he said he was from dental work. the campaign shake-up comes as two minstersç acknowledged the asked bachmann or santorum to dropout to avoid splitting the vote.

i am joined by clarence paige. just when you thought you heard it all, the novocain explanation. i am about to go to another campaign, but it's about my hurting tooth. >> that's a new one. >> it was crazy. what does it mean for michele bachmann? she is in single digits. >> it hurts her because he's a popular guy in his state. he was her iowa campaign chairman and he quit and apparently notified her through a phone call on his way to a ron paul rally. he said he had known ron paul a long time and he was helpful in his own campaign. bachmann was angry and came back saying ron paul's campaign paid him a lot of money and that's how they got him. ron paul's campaign and sorenson

denied. it was voluntary, they say. that doesn't make bachmann look good either. this couldn't have come at a worse time for her. one of the things that really -- certainly encourages her to get out the race. i doubt she will. >> it comes on the same day that we learned the pastors working behind the scenes are trying to get her or santorum to dropout. i always wonder about this. do you think they really believe they can get a conservative to the nomination or elected or do they justç want to consolidate around one strong candidate so that they can continue to be part of the conversation? >> let me say first of all, i love iowa and i got back from political journalists. iowa loves to surprise you. i don't think iowa made up their minds as to who they will nominate and our polling and

focus groups and all this tends to get surprised. i will recount what happened four years ago, they nominated mike huckabee and he was over romney. the polling is running about the same as four years ago. 24.5%. i think he has a good chance to win, but this ron paul surge right now indicates that iowa folks want to make a point. these are republican voters regardless of those swing voters who is always against wofr is in office right now. the mainstream republican voters are conservative and they tend to run towards the mike huckabee type. ron paul is a libertarian, but he is christian and antiabortion and whatever. he could just win iowa and probably not go much further. >> evangelicals are part of the organization and 60%.

in the rest of the nation, we keep hearing about independents and you wrote this great column about independents. they are not always that independent. >> they aren't. just about every study and about 85% voteç independent or democrat. every so often they wander off the reservation. these days, people like to call themselves independent. it's an american thing to be and say i am not beholden to either party. i vote for the man or the woman and not the party, but most people do vote the party. >> this is another thing to watch. you can go to the walk us and decide if you are democrat or independent. we shall see. this is not a dull year, that's for sure. thank you, my friend. happy new year to you. >> you too. thank you. >> even though he is slipping in

the polls maybe because he is slipping, newt gingrich's campaign made a huge last minute ad buy. a half million worth. he had a great fourth quarter of fund-raising. close to $9 million. a spokesman compares the late fund-raising surge to that of in 20007. [ male announcer ] great tasting tap water can come from any faucet anywhere. the brita bottle with the filter inside.

mitt romney appealed to iowans patriotism in a minute long ad earlier today. >> we stand for freedom and opportunity and hope and principals that made this nation a great and powerful leader of the world and have not lost their meaning. they never will. i am mitt romney. i believe in america and i am running for president of the

united states. >> rick perry is making another clarification to his position on abortion, saying she against it in cases of rape and incest, but okay with an exception if the mother's life is at risk. watching a dvd led him to a transformation on his view. >>ç touring the chocolate seas after romney compared him to lucy in the chocolate factory. >> governor romney had a cute line about my team resembling the chocolate factory. here i am in the chocolate factory. >> john huntsman is not worried he is not the only one in iowa. >> it's our strategy and i think a day or two after iowa, results will be meaningless. >> then this morning, huntsman

went a step further. listen to this dig. >> in iowa there is activity playing out and they picked corn here and presidents here. >> ouch, iowa. john huntsman is skipping it, but no one else dares ignore iowa. they said iowa is a terrible choice to kickoff the contest. it's very small and unrepresentative of voters across america. take a look. over 118,000 people voted in the caucus last time around and fewer in 2000. 60% of those identified them as evangelical christians and almost 90% of iowa is white. hardly like america. 40% of the state is rural. is it time to push it back in the back? historian at american university, good morning.

this is the annual or year's conversation. is iowa worth it? they also persuade in the column ti. feel free to ignore iowa. she compares participation to the same amount of people watching a football game and 150,000 to the city of pomona, california. does she has a point? >> of course she does, but she doesn't. iowa matters because iowa is first. it was first as part of the most momentous shift in the nomination process. the shift of getting with the democrats in 72. from the system where many delegates were chosen by party bosses to a system of open primaries and caucuses. iowa has a multistage process. they had to move their original caucuses to first in the nation and that's where they have been.

you can see from the fact that you are paying so much attention to it that despite the small number of voters, this is an important test. >> we do pay so much attention to it because it is first and the candidates spend so much time there. we are very knowledgeable and pay attention and pay close attention to the process. it's history enough and is that enough to keep them from pushing back. >> iowa may be the worst possible choice except for all the others. there in it comes. if you don't have iowa first, who is to move into first place. whichever state does it is going to be an argument why that state doesn't work. say you get aç big representate state like new york. everyone will say new york is

not appropriate because it takes so much money to run in new york that underdog candidates have no chance. imagine if you opened it up. every state would want to be in the first in the nation position. you would be talking about that state and not about iowa. the problem with iowa i think is that it's no longer the retail face-to-face politics. as we have seen this year, iowa is corrupt. it's the ad wars and social media wars. they are spending unlimited amounts of money. >> do you see a time where the changes where iowa won't be first? >> i don't think so for the problem if not iowa then which state? it would be an enormous problems for the parties to sort out and figure out which state should take the place of iowa. enormous animosity. tradition may be flawed, but i

think tradition is going to rule in the foreseeable future. >> it is always good to see you, professor. thank you so much. happy campaign season. look at that. since 1976, only half of iowa winners have even won the gop nomination. for now, iowa remains the center of the political universe and much like barack obama in 2008, huge teams of college-age volunteers are descending on the state, but working for 76-year-old ron paul and make sure they don't say or do anything to embarrass the campaign, paul for president is training them, including the directives, shave, cover tattoos and stay off social media. also how to get out the vote in that unique caucus process. we'll be right back. during the k was really important to me. [ male announcer ] along with support, chantix is proven to help people quit smoking. chantix reduced my urge to smoke -- and personally that's what i knew i needed.

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>> we can see more voters turn out because right now the

forecast is for clear skies. good weather so far has been good for cities acrocsç the country. they are saving millions on snow removal. they got nailed last year and not everybody is happy about this. mike is live in lake tahoe, california. there is a little bit of snow there. what's the problem? >> i think it's man made. you can ski on it if it's cold enough. the problem is that not only has it been no natural snowfall, but the cold temperatures have not been necessary to make it as they need it. think about last year at this time. there was 10 to 12 feet of snowpack. this is a world class facility. five are open and across the

countries. except for a couple of areas in new mexico and tucson, arizona. the rest of the country are playing golf. they are water skiing in wet suits. people are trying to adapt and not get counted about now. for ski areas, they have had a brutal start to the season and people can forget about december. so far december has been forgettable. >> a huge resort there. how many runs are open? >> only five of 170. beautiful and a nice place to have a picnic. if you are a skier, you like to go to a resort and ski.ç >> if memory serves, i saw you sanding in a few snowstorms. and all the budgets are a mess.

they are paying for the snow removal. this is a big deal for them as well. it's awful for the places that are humming. 2600 employees. there 1,000 workers who have not started work yet they are getting made on the mountains. that hasn't happened yet. they are in ski country and they are hoping for a change. it's a long season and you just got to trust it. good to see you, my friend. >> one of the biggest and most sought blocks in the country is the la teeno voters.

barack obama is crushing mitt romney. 68 to 23%. these numbers are similar to the result for the 2008 election. president obama carried 67% of the latino vote and just 31% for john mccain. ♪ that's good morning, veggie style. hmmm [ male announcer ] for half the calories -- plus veggie nutrition. could've had a v8. plus veggie nutrition. you want to save money on car insurance? no problem. you want to save money on rv insurance? no problem. you want to save money on motorcycle insurance? no problem. you want to find a place to park all these things? fuggedaboud it. this is new york. hey little guy, wake up! aw, come off it mate! geico. saving people money on more than just car insurance. yeah, our low prices are even lower. we need to teach her how to walk.

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[ male announcer ] the new capital one cash rewards card. the card for people who want 50% more cash. what's in your wallet? woah! [ giggles ] >> the discontent and anger has taken up residents in iowa and dozens of occupy protesters demonstrating outside the des moines headquarters and ten were arrested. republicans are restless too because with five days to go until the iowa showdown, we have been telling you this puts mitt romney back on top. since this summer, seven months have been seven different republican front-runners as )about jobs and economy and go back and forth. i am joined by the associate politics editor and msnbc analyst richard wolf. good morning. mitt romney was the front-runner

from the beginning and is back on top now. is all of this jockeying over? is this the start of round two? >> the good thing for everybody is that the voters in iowa get to decide and not the media. we are back where we started. for sure that romney will be the nominee and for sure they will be again. it looks strong he will do well in iowa and probably new hampshire. it's a difficult state to pull because of the process. new hampshire likes to shape things up as well. you never exactly know. >> you can look at the numbers a lot of different ways and some people say it's his turn and he was the only one left. they got the surge and lucky for him it's the right time. they have seen this with seven different front-runners in seven months.

2006 and 2008 and 2010 is continuing and the more difficult thing to get your arms around is what do republicans stand for? what do they represent with the tea party folks and where does social conservatism fitç in? those are the debates that are playing out with the candidates and the key thing you have to remember in the last couple of weeks, the candidates can control the patent of behavior. we are going to go back into the debates and as christina said, voters throw in the things. this is a false quiet.

we have not been able to hear about it and i don't think the name recognition is very high. >> for reminds me a little bit of this false surge towards the end of the 2008 caucuses. maybe i'm the adult in the room. and it's possible santorum will be in. he spent a lot of time and doesn't have much money. he is not running ads on the air. that will change in the final days, but that's the unexpected. you will see a major air war. this is going to be voters uninr undated for four days.

>> there is a push to get behind one conservative candidate and we saw the minsters and the bacs campaign. where are all the big conservative endorsements and where is sarah palin and jim demint. they gave his view of the race, he hasn't endorsed anybody. do you expect anybody to come out in the next five days? >> partly because maybe if you are sarah palin, you are toying with the idea of running yourself. iowa is just the start here. there other starts still to come where the endorsements will have an impact. what we saw in 2007 is they came came after iowa and new hampshire as democrats were trying to pick out whether it was worthy it and whether the

candidates wanted it. it has a long way to run and newt gingrich experienced, a month or two of this and we could have another set of front-runne front-runners. >> will it be another month or two and will it go away after south carolina? >> i'm not sure now. is this going to be a long one? >> we all plan vacations in march. the first week of june and wasn't final until the convention. it's possible and as far as the endorsements go, herman suspended his campaign and said i will be endorsing soon. that hasn't happened. he is waiting in the wings and could be extremely inif youential.ç >> to your point that you think this will go on a while. would the big loser be really the republicans? i finger this ends quickly,

obviously the problem is for barack obama. he is hitting back and has the babies. they are sticking their hand there. he's the baby whisperer and the calm cool guy. they are going after each other and spending money and tearing each other down in sound bytes that can be used against the effectual nominee. do you think it's significant for the president? . >> i think he would be happier with the approval numbers. they like the idea of tearing each other apart. they didn't have nearly enough to date. >> when you look at the time table, even then big states follow the majority of delegates that don't even get resolved. the only reason to dropout earlier than march would be

because you run out of money and money is coming in in late surges. it's at least until march. >> thank you both. >> happy new year. >> here's a look at other stories. the u.s. is pushing back against iranian threats to close the waterway that carries 15 billion barrels of oil a day. 5ñ word that if that happened, it could push your gas prices up by as much as a dollar a gallon. this is a significant event. sea of mourningers packing the main plaza in a memorial for kim jung il. it starts the official rule of his son. he has been named the head of the military and the people of north korea. rival groups of orthodox and

armenian clerics clash over the jurisdiction. about 100 monks beat each other as they clean the church and police had to break up the fight. merry christmas and happy new year. new year's eve will arrive a week sooner. they will skip a day literally. samoa's time zone put them a full day behind new we will have ant and australia and officials decided they will skip december 30th to put themselves on the same dateline as their trading partners. if you have been embarrassed after hitting reply to all instead of just to one person the paper goofed twice and it confused and worried customers in the process. mandy drury is here with what's moving your money. what happened? >> it was a bit of a woops.

they thought they were sending an e-mail to a few hundred people offering people a 50% discount, but they wanted to lure them çback. instead yesterday's offer went out to 8.6 million e-mail addresses of people and here's the real blunder. the times tweeted out if you received an e-mail, ignore it. they adimate that it should have been sent to a small number of subscribers. they it more plans to cancel. oops. >> verizon getting a lot of static over outages on the 4g network. the twitter could did say the latest outage has been resolved.

the customers reported the outages of the newer service and they said they were operating. it's a major headache. they are promoting the service since unveiling it last year. >> thank you. >> you're welcome. >> americans are taking a glass half full approach. about a third of people think their household situation will improve. 62% are"utnçççrcsnfoík optimis 2012 will bring. when bp made a commitment to the gulf, we knew it would take time, but we were determined to see it through. today, while our work continues, i want to update you on the progress: bp has set aside 20 billion dollars to fund economic and environmental recovery. we're paying for all spill- related clean-up costs.

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why he is endorsing him and why he thinks democrats will gain. the bachman loses super packed support. a member of the campaign joins me with their next move. you might be surprised to hear who has the most feet on the street in iowa. the shatç shadow campaign in t next hour. >> not only is mitt romney leading, but it's happening in new hampshire where they opened a big lead. what are the oughts that another candidate could shock us and make this a horse race. politico disavows any sort of betting, but he agreed to play vegas odds maker as i was twisting his arm. let's start with newt gingrich and voters seem to be tiring. he is now fourth in the newest poll. what do you think the oughts are he can make a turn around?

>> i think the reason why i still think that newt gingrich is not to be discarded, we have seen the flavor of the month. his bubble has not burst as drastically as the folks we have seen come in. if you look at the polls in south carolina and florida, he does very well despite the fact that iowa and new hampshire, he is a bit lagging and attracts a lot of media attention. i think he cannot be written off. >> ron paul has been seen as this french candidate and a little bit crazy who was a funny curiosity to the friends at dinner. now here he is strong in iowa and new hampshire and by the way, outspending mitt romney in new hampshire. what are the chances he becomes more than this curiosity? does he become a legitimate contender? >> she a long shot. you know he is very good and

effective and the oneç thing h failed at is getting the republican establishment to back him. you saw newt gingrich say that. if ron paul were to win and move himself a notch back, that does not get said. no matter what happens, i will support the nominee. you see a lot of folks saying if ron paul wins, they will not support him. the cigar smoke-filled rooms do matter in politics. if he can't get them on board, he will have a hard time in that campaign. >> we have the surge rick santorum. even if he pulls off a stunning upset, then what. >> he can gear up with the social conservative vote. he is doing a great job of that in iowa. he is having a good chance of winning the nomination, but if

he can establish himself with this cycle, his voice and support and endorsement will be valued. they will have a 10% to 15% success rate not only in iowa, but around the country. >> you rated all of them for us. i was surprised about this. perry and huntsman are equal at 20%. >> here's why. they both have different, but important strengths. rick perry remains someone who did attract a lot of money that he can continue to spend and a lot of conservatives do like his record down in texas. john huntsman is somebody who has been a late surger. coming around lately and somebody if he can do well and he will kind of be viewed as the reasonable conservative and a lot of republican elites are coming around to like him. i would not rule him out yet, but still a long shot. >> chances of a serious 30 party

candidate? >> that's not going to happen. it's a fantasy for those of us in the media, but you are seeing a lot of republican types, like bob dole and george hw bush and throwing support behind mitt romney. more of the establishment types you can get, the less of a third party. folks like those who want a third party. >> thank you. >> today's tweet of the day comes from josh marshall. the talking points memo. romney name dropped i love louis skpetg it with the 60 plus crowd. [ sponge ] the prognosis is bleak. you may need to soak overnight.

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the most influential hair and so engaging. which celebrities had the most influential haircuts. the beebs. stylists were inundated for the bieber swish. emma watson's pixie cut. she rocked the pixie all of last year. the 9-year-old connecticut girl asked santa for a lot, none of it for her. a week before christmas, they said a bagful of shoes, books and canned food to give to the needy. another 100 pair of shoes naming piper santa's trusty helper. >> it makes me feel good inside like i have done something right. >> she delivered most of the goods to local charities. >> forez the hype over valentine's day, december is among the busiest to pop the question. 39% happened between november

and february according to the knot.com. 16% got engaged in december. every year made it. i was distracted because don was going like this. i hope his wife was not watching. and pretty good012 om new york' square. good morning. how are you? it's always exciting, right? did i hear you having tony bennett this year? >> tony bennett started singing with the waiter in 1942. he had his first number one l bum and he was performing on the show. >> you will countdown the top five game changers of 2011. >> that's something we do in the prime hour as a way to reflect

on the things in popular culture in sports and politics. there was a few things that happened in the past year that will highlight and pay off. it will be a fun thing to do before we get into it. >> is it true that brian williams who only had six or seven jobs as it is and has lots of time on his hands did something for you? /%[wmç and knew more about music than i did.ç he did it from the nightly news post and it is flawless. >> i have to ask you this because it's the tourist season here. it can be like a million people around time square. watching you which is a good thing. what are the people thinking?

the truth is the appliance puts on a great show. it's like a carnival or mardiy graw. we ring in all of the international new years. there is bands playing and it's music. it's quite fun. it's a bucket list thing. unseasonably warm. mid 40s and i expect a crowd of at least a million. >> it will be another great show. thank you for taking the time to talk with us. that will wrap up this hour of jansing and company. milissa ray burger is up income. andrea mitchell will interview mitt romney on the trail in iowa. the full interview on "andrea mitchell reports" here on msnbc. see you tomorrow. fully customize it for your trading process -- from thought to trade, on every screen. and all in real time. which makes it just like having your own trading floor,

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