thanks for being here this morning. >> keep well, sir. >> i'll do my best. >> look at that. look at that. isn't that something? >> i'm chris matthews. let's play "hardball." good evening. i'm chris matthews in des moines, iowa, where the republican presidential candidates are heading into their final weekend of campaigning before tuesday's caucuses. four days to go now until the first results of 2012. leading off tonight, romney goes for the kishlgs our new nbc

news/marist poll has mitt romney leading the field here in iowa. it's the second poll this week to show romney on top and one of many polls showing newt gingrich is in dead free fall. the pressure may be getting to newt who became teary-eyed this afternoon at java joe 's. one reason romney is doing so well is evangelical voters are split, torn among rick santorum, rick perry, romney, gingrich and michele bachmann. today the religious-oriented candidates, santorum, perry and bachmann, get 35% in a new poll, but apart they are giving rom nareal path to victory through their division, and how many tickets are there out of iowa? how many people come from here to other parts of the debate and the campaign? well, who is out of the race if they don't have a strong finish on tuesday night? we'll answer that tonight. we'll look at which of the candidates are most likely to quit after the iowa caucuses this coming tuesday. and tell me what you really think. we've got the most revealing moments of the republican race so far, the statements that

really tell us more about the candidates than even they ever intended to tell us. finally, let me finish with the role of politics and human tears. we start with mitt romney going for the kill. howard fineman an msnbc political analyst and "huffington post" immediate can a group editorial director and susan page is the washington bureau chief for "usa today." and here we are, at java joe's, ground central -- ground central on a quiet little street in des moines that just happens to come alive like brigadoon every four years and we're all here. we're part of the brigadoon characters. this tune is always here. we just show up and we're the characters out of that play. mitt romney leads the pack. still at that ceiling of 23, that weird number that keeps popping up on a roulette wheel like in "casablanca" the one that's fixed. keeps coming up from 23, four points up from earlier this month. ron paul is a close second, up a couple points. rick santorum is on the rise

more dramatically jumping nine points in third place and still rising and newt gingrich has continued his dead decline, down 15 points to finish in fifth place. what is going on here? let's do that, like we like to do on "hardball." let's go to the bad news first. why is newt gingrich dying in des moines? >> well, chris. >> and davenport and other cities in iowa. >> i saw her early this morning at a country club. >> all right. >> with a rotary club crowd that was a pre-made crowd. it wasn't his crowd. it was the rotary crowd. >> they let in non-members. >> yeah, and when newt started to speak, it sounded to me like a valedictory, it sounded to me like he'd beginning to explain why he failed. he said in front of this rotary club meeting and i quote it had on "huffington post," he said i can't do modern politics, meaning that there's something about the way a big national industrialized presidential campaign works that he just never filligured out, and if he

ever does figure it out it will be too late. that's what's happening to him here. >> who is the african-american guy in mythic history, the piledriver. >> john henry. >> and he would pound the piles in until he finally had to run against the machine and he beat it and then beat mat sheen and died. >> that's how newt views himself, a self-serving analysis saying i'm the honest guy who wanted a positive campaign. >> i won the debates. >> won the debates, talked about the issues, running like i was a member on the floor of the house, not this weird thing that is presidential politics. of course, he's playing the system. >> a republican running against industrialization, there's a strange development. susan, your thoughts about what looks to be the decline to almost infinitely little size of newt gingrich today. >> i think one factor. we see all the tv ads, night and day on iowa television stations. 45% of the tv ads are attack ads on newt gingrich, so it would be a phenomenal character who could withstand that. >> he's been around a million

years. why would people believe the negative on him? >> a target-rich environment. not just one thing you can criticize newt gingrich. you can criticize his temperament. >> why did the souffel rise so high and quickly and come down like a bad meal? what happened? >> because that's what happened with per and bachmann and cain because there's more of a hunger for a more interesting character and voters think they found him and he shoots up and they discover he's flawed and he goes down. mitt romney is right down there at the four percentage he got four years ago, 25% is what he got in the iowa caucuses. >> we have him at 23 which is the number he rides around the country. let's take a look at campaign stop in west des moines, mitt romney joined by the big governor, big clout from back east, chris christie. i had a conversation with both fellows. let's watch. how is he helping your campaign,

governor? >> he makes it real clear we'll bring real change to washington. >> would he be a good running mate? >> there are a number of people who would be terrific. >> got a lot on that, i got ahold of kristie and asked him about romney, and let's listen to that. i can see the ticket. i can see the ticket before me. how doing? >> how doing, chris? >> good to see you. >> oh, i don't know, we'll see. >> i don't think so. listen, i don't know. he's going to do really well here, but i don't know what that is going to mean. >> second place good enough? >> going to do well. i'm not setting expectations. >> first or second good enough? >> he'll do really well. you'll be watching, rights? i'll be watching you. >> new jersey, pennsylvania and ohio and break this thing wide open? >> he'll win jersey and pennsylvania and ohio in the open. the fact is, people know it's

not going right and he's the guy to fix it. >> are you going across the country with him right now? >> i'm going wherever he's asked me to go. >> i do think it's a possible ticket, so many, john thune, let's stop talking about romney winning this thing. is this a rock meeting a hard place, whatever, because an unmoveable force meeting an unstoppable object? a guy that has had a ceiling because the evangelicals don't like him, a moderate, lds, whatever the factors are. he seems to be stuck at 23%, romney, nationwide and here in iowa. at the same time they want a winner, an so people are somewhat coalescing about him, somewhat, and the crowd we saw today. you're demuring him. >> the romney people out there, currently genuinely worried that rick construm will somehow be able to consolidate all the evangelicals which could give him above the 23%, 24%, 25% ceiling that romney has, and when you talk to the people out at that rally, he was wearing a romney sticker. so, tell me why you're for mitt romney and he said i'm not real

100% for mitt romney but he does seem to be a sane guy. >> okay. there's a standard. >> there's a standard. >> in the clown car one guy is sane. >> and that might be enough to get him the 24% or 25% that he needs, but the romney people are being very careful not to predict anything more than that. >> you know, my daughter says the night you let the less drunk guy drive. that's what goes on. >> not worried -- they figured -- they -- the romney people figure they can explain away ron paul, but they have more trouble explaining away a surgery santorum. >> a surge by rick santorum, 59% say they are with him as a candidate and ron paul, rick perry close behind him, percentage that says they are totally behindce a metrics here susan, but here's the question. will the full committed people of santorum drive their way through the evangelicals, get the lion's slayer of that 46% come tuesday night, and overtake

romney who can't seem to bust free from 23%, 25%, howard sized it up. >> the other candidates are not backing away. rick perry is on the air here all the time. >> rick perry doesn't have the brains to be president. i mean -- >> he's going to get part of that vote and gingrich will get part of that vote. part of the metrics here and other candidates splitting the vote. >> he has appeal. >> what's the appeal? >> the appeal of rick perry? >> yeah. >> he seems to be a decent guy to the evangelicals, a decent guy with his heart in the right place, even if he doesn't have -- >> upstairs. >> the rest of it. >> okay. >> he's the nation's senior governor of a big state. >> texas. >> okay. thank you, howard fineman, just kidding. a lot of smart people in texas, i was going to say liberals but that would be pushing. thank you, susan page. how much these have you covered? >> my ninth caucuses. >> we are brigadoon characters, aren't we? we come out here every four years. coming up, why don't evangelical voters get in line behind one

candidate? i don't know why we're encouraging this. if they get behind santorum rather than splitting their vote among perry, bachmann and gingrich and the rest of them, they won't have clout out here. we're teaching evangelicals how to have more political clout. we're out here at java joe's. i caught up with romney voters today. watch. how do you see the vote on tuesday in the caucuses? >> i don't need my president to be my moral compass or religious compass, i need him to take care of my paycheck, and that's why i'm out here supporting romney. [ other merv ] welcome back to the cleaning games. let's get a recap, merv. [ merv ] thanks, other merv. mr. clean magic eraser extra power was three times faster on permanent marker.

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welcome back to "hardball." what an exciting campaign this is. four years ago mike huckabee won in iowa by gaining overwhelming support from the people who are identified as evangelicals, and this year the evangelical field

is a little more crowded and a lot more divided among the following, rick can strum doing the best. rick perry who is hanging in there, michele bachmann fading. as the saying goes, the shape of the field defines the winner. that's a massachusetts political expression which means if you're the only evangelical against four secular candidates you win. if you're the only evangelical among four seculars you win. jimmy carter was the only conservative among four democratic liberals, that's how he won, so will mitt romney be the big winner as the secular candidate thanks to the inability of evangelicals to coalesce around one candidate? we've got the two experts maybe not of all time but near time. mark halperin of "time" magazine's editor at large and msnbc's senior political analyst and john heilemann is national affairs editor of "new york" magazine and political analyst hat msnbc. let me ask you both. one of the three of us, is safe to say that's an evangelical. let's make that straight. we're looking inside the fishbowl y.can't they find one guy or person they like the

most, you first, mark? >> four years ago mitt romney had to run against three establishment candidates, fred thompson, rudy giuliani and john mccain. >> and huckabee. >> huckabee was the evangelical to consolidate, a mirror image. they can't consolidate because all of them have had moments and all have sacrificed for months to run for president, rick per' little bit less than the others. don't want to give up and don't particularly like each other and they all think that they can be the one to emerge from kind of a romney dilemma, a prisoner's dilemma. got together they can do what they want individually but fighting each oh, romney now, mirror image, only establishment candidate against not the three you named, but gingrich and to some extent ron paul. >> right. >> also have the same kind of backing. >> at that 8 a 01 steakhouse and the lobsters in the lobster tank that got through the night, the one that are still there. >> the 1% lobsters. >> don't let any lobster get out of the tank. see one getting out pull it back in. no evangelical wants the other evangelical to win. for example, rick santorum,

charismatic, starting to pull away. can he overtake romney as the overall winner and big winner out of iowa? >> it depends. this is a momentum game. who gets hot at the end. rick santorum has the hot hand and particularly the hot hand among this et voting bloc, but you've got -- the candidates aren't going to do that. the voters will make that decision. the problem for santorum, he's benefiting from bachmann's collapse, for sure, and she's kind of on the way down. >> we saw her yesterday with 12 people of at an event at the most. >> the problem he's facing the issue thing in the nbc poll is perry is still holding steady and ticking up a little bit. >> is that tv advertising? >> totally a matter of money and shows you the contrast between thof them, if santorum had per's money would i bet today he's win the caucus eds, but he's totally broke, got momentum but no money. perry has no momentum but can be on television everywhere. has spent more money than any

other candidate. >> the can't days are use their ad buys trying to go after evangelicals to try to win it, an ad by rick santorum tougt his marriage and family, eastern an appearance by mike huckabee in the ad. let's watch. baas ♪ ♪ let's watch. ♪ the ad. let's watch. ♪ >> so big family, happy family, i think that's all true, by the way, a legitimate ad from anybody. really does have a great marriage and 21 years ain't much but it's something, you know. i'm 31 so i don't know what everyone is bragging about. anybody got more than 21 here? >> look. everybody in iowa has a longer marriage than rick perry. >> a 20-year-old kid put his hand up. >> did you say good iowa

candidate, been to all 99 counties, speaks a lot of the language of a lot of voters here, hasn't had a lot of money and is on tv now. i think the thing that could be the moment for him where he consol dates, some endorsements here from evangelical leaders, some nationally, but what could consolidate for him in the voters' minds is "the des moines register" poll out saturday night. if he's doing well. >> they are smart -- evangelicals will smart, will go with the leader. >> will go with someone they thing can win this thing and send a message. do you agree? >> that's why i said before the consolidation will happen not because one of the other candidates like decides to throw up their hands but because voters decide there's one that has the best chance of winning. >> here's perry trying to stop that from happening. rick perry talking about a war on christianity in this country. let's watch this tough ad. >> i'm not ashamed to admit that i'm a christian but you don't need to be in the pew every sunday to know that there's something wrong in the country when gays can serve openly in the military but our kids can't

openly celebrate christmas or pray in school. as president i'll end obama's war on reerligion, and i'll fig for our religion. >> nobody made people gay, god allowed them to serve the country that they love. number two, why can't you pray in public school if you want to? nobody is stopping you. you just don't have an organized reading of the king james bible. i just don't understand why what his case is? >> what -- >> i do understand, it by the way. >> what's interesting to me about that ad is when he got in that race the adviser said the religious conservative rick perry won't be front and center, he'll be the job creator in texas. his advertising and rhetoric on the stump is about anti-washington, the religious issues. he's gotten away from the message he thought would bring him to the nomination. >> look, i guess i know rick santorum from pennsylvania,

always liked him even though i disagree with his stuff. he is what he is. if you peel off the skin deep, deep down he'd be rick can trurnl -- rick santorum. not like romney who is somebody else hiding somewhere. >> rack can strsantorum would he better without the "brokeback mountain" jacket on. >> you are really making connections. >> what mark said is true, he,s spent all this money on television. >> is that a secret code? >> he's not had a consistent message so all of the money that he's spent on tv has not rebounded as much to his benefit as it might have been, on jobs sometimes, on culture, all over the place. >> santorum hardly ever talks about the economy. >> he does. gotten no scrutiny. perry's gone after him in the last 48 hours a little bit, but rick santorum record is not going to be scrutinized between now and tuesday.

>> you write history but let me ask you for a preview. suppose the headlines in all the papers, "des moines register" and "new york times" is, let's see, paul edges romney, santorum finishes strong. is that a good prediction? >> it's -- it's certainly plausible. i don't think it's most likely. >> i think it's plausible and sounds pretty good for mitt romney. >> thank you very much, john heilemann and mark halperin. coming up, when people vote on tuesday how many candidates will survive, and how many will get kicked off the island, in other words, say no more campaigning. we're done. you're watching "hardball" from iowa, coming up only on msnbc.

we're back at jaffo joe's. what a wild crowd. i think sometimes that the only people that come in here are democrats, but that's just the -- i've got to keep looking. this is supposed to be a republican big story here.

let me ask you about newt gingrich tearing up right next door here in the other room of java joe's. seems that we've watched this across both gender sides, ed musky was cried in new hampshire. senator -- what's her name pat scloeder from colorado, senator clinton, hillary clinton and, of course, this guy now. my experience behind the scenes all cry when they are in trouble politically. they are exhausted and emotional. what does it tell you? >> comes out across to me phony, at this every day and right at the end it seems like the tear ducts come in and strikes me as phoney. >> you think it's an appeal for sympathy? >> oh, yeah, really. >> you're a hard guy. >> absolutely. >> i'm going to go to a woman now and see if there's a gender -- do you agree with that that this is a show, that the tears are for show or crocodile tears? >> not usually, no. i think they are genuine at the time. >> do you think it's driven by tiredness and exsnaufgs. >> that could be a good part of it, for sure. >> what do you think?

>> i think when you're tired you're emotionally vulnerable. >> do you think it shows newt gingrich to be more of a mench? >> i don't think i better respond to that. >> you don't want to go that far. >> do you think newt gingrich is trying to show his softer side here or what? >> i -- i just can't say too much good about newt gingrich. >> well, i'm with you, bro. let me go to you. sir, too many tear drops. isn't there a song, too many tear drops i? like that song >> i think he's sincere. just think he's tired and exhausted. >> thank you. i'm with you actual >> i i don't think it was sincere, but when hillary cried it was sincere. >> okay. >> that's what we like, true political prejudice. we're all guilty of that. you're exactly why i want to talk to you. why not you? >> nothing to say. >> nothing to say. >> gosh. we don't like that. over here. there you are. >> excellent reading material, though i don't -- >> great reading material. awesome book. >> what's the name of that book, "jack kennedy: elusive hero." >> thank you. let me ask you about your views

here, to crying in politics. ed musky totally denied it back in my age, back in 5076, '72 rather, it was -- it was the snow on his eyes or whatever. do you think tears hurt a politician or give them a human side? >> i think it gives them a human side, but i don't think newt gingrich has much of a human side. i think he's tired >> you think he's tired. >> most people here are cynical. they have no hearts and they think newt gingrich doesn't either. that's "hardball" for now. coming up "your business" with j.j. ramberg. [ male announcer ] drinking a smoothie with no vegetable nutrition? ♪ [ gong ] strawberry banana! [ male announcer ] for a smoothie with real fruit plus veggie nutrition new v8 v-fusion smoothie. could've had a v8.