this sunday, live from des moines, on this new year's day, just 48 hours before the iowa caucuses. the official start of this presidential electionear. senator rick santorum surges in the closing days, but will it be enough to buy him a ticket out of t hawkeye state? >> iowa provides the spark. there's plenty of tinder on the ground that will start burning in these other states. >> senator santorum here with us for a exclusive interview this morning. mewhile, mitt romney is trying to kep his spot atop the polls, as he makes his final push. >> this is an election not only to replace a president, it's an election to save the soul of america. >>and newt gingrich, still losing somesupport,but will his emotional moment in iowa humanize him to voters? >> dealingwh, you know, the

real problems of real people in my family. and so, it's not a theory, it's, in fact, you now, my mother. >>e'll break down the state of the race, and the impact of the caucuses with the chairman of iowa's republican party ma strawnnd n news political director chuckodd. plus, full analysis from our political roundtable, columnist for the des moines register kathieobradovich, republican strategist mik murphy, "new york times" columnist david brooks, "time" magazine's senior political analyst mark halper, and host of "andrea mitchell reports," nbc's andrea mitchell. god morning. here we go. the presidential race of 2012 is about to officiall beg, as

the voting starts here in iowa on tuesday. and here's how the race looks this morning, with the "des moines register" poll showing a three-way race now with romney leading ron paul by two points and ric santorum with a late surge. we will lk to santorum about his surpre momentum in the race just a couple of moment but first we have wi us nbc's political director chuck todd, and the chairman of iowa's republican party, matt strawn. welcome to both of you. good morng. happy new year. >> good morning. welcome ck. >> so, chuck todd, partner, where are we this morning? >> well, i think we're trying to gure out this. wht are iowaaucusgoers going to do? are they going to come into these caucuses tuesday night and ck a president or are they oing to do what they've done in the pt, which is send a message and nnow the field? if they come in and a lot of them want to pick a presidnt mi romney is going to win, turnous going to go up, you're going to see the casual voter show up and that's good for romney. if it's the old-styl sort of the activists that show up, i think santorum enough

momentum,ith a little bit of a wild card here in rick perry, but then santorum does get out of here with some momentum. an i think that that's what we don't know. >> let me stick with santorum with you, chuck. if you look insid the numbers of the poll, the last couple of days, when they were in the field, talking to folks, this is what you see thatsantorum is actlly 21% because in those last twoays his numbers actually shoot up 6%, so if you're measuring intensity, not ooking at the full range of the poll, but just the last couple of days, you see santorum's really got that buz >> and thatas the big thing out of the nbcarist poll. both polls almost fit together and it was sanrum and ron paul for instance that had much more intensity than mit romney. in fact, rick perry had more intense support in o poll that mitt rmney did. and that's the romney problem. he's got the, well, guess'm going to be for roey, voter. but those guys show up? that's what we don't know. >> matt strawn, you're the chairman of the rty herein the state.

and this is important. this is the first voting in the presidential campaign. what's the mind-set o an iowa republican going in to this caucus? > well, i think the other y take awy, not just in the nbc/marist poll but in the "des moines register" poll is two in five voters could change their mind between caucus day. it's moved from three out of five which it was just a couple weeks ago. i think that's the juxtaposition between the desire to beat barack obama t also making sure we have a minee that c addressively articulate th republican, principle, conservative message going into a neral ection. >> what's more important? we've seen santorum's latest ad is relly about electability. i c beat barack obama. but for the breadth of the campaigning in iowa, it's en, who's the true conservative. has there been change? because there hasn't been a love affair among voters with mitt romney, who's been the front-runner throught most of this contest? i thi the first thing you see when you talk to any iowa republican is that desire to beat barack obama because we understand that we can't afford four more years of an obama administration thats hostile to our party's values and our principles.

and that's the tension. while you still hve two out of every five iowa caucusgoershave not yet made a decision. that's really going to get down to on tuesday night, you always hear the mantra, organization, organization, organizatio the organized campaign is going to have someone in each of those 1774 precincts t make the case, t only why a candidate can beat barack obama, but why they have principles of our party that they are going to the general. >> remember what happens on tuesday night. there's a set of speeches that happen before the actual vote. and i think that that is why, for instance, rick santorum is mang an electabilityargumen that's the problem he himself said he was runninginto. we agree with you. he fits the i republican caucus electorate better, frankly, than any of these candidates. better than rick perry without all of the baggage th hs accumulated. betterhan a newt gingrich. he fits it, the social conservative vaues, vry strong inside the iowa republican party. but he said himself people will come upo him, i don't think you can win. not only i don't even think you can go on to other states. well, he's gotto make that case at the end. d if he does, he's got the biggest -- he's got the most

room to grow here. that's why he, on paper,yes, romney ahead. i think it wouldn't surprise anybody if santorum is the one that comes out of here. >> talk about the volatility a lile bit. we've been covering this. anbody you talk to about the rae is still shang their head about, wait a minute, tre was bachmann, then there wasperry, and th there was herman cain, and the the was gingrich, and now 's fallen bk. what's going on? >> not mitt romney. mitt romne is not viewed as conservative enough for where this republican party is today. he's been trying to do this. you know, we did a little word search and the word conservave witmitt romne in the first half of his campaign, he didn't u the word very often. in the last six weeks he talks about it all the time, tries to say i am a nservative. you knw. he talks about the electability. but that has been -- that is al an issue. we still have75% likely of the iowa republican caucus electorate that's going vote for somebody else. you know, that's still a challenge for romney. and i think that it may be what some activists here in iowa decide to do, say hey, we've got to force mitt romney to keep proving his conservative

credentials. to say you'rnot going to end this early. you've goto go out there and earn the conservative vote. >> matt, what about turnout? because this is a big key. bigger turnout, presumably better for romney because a lot of strategists i've talked to say thoseou bemoderates those could be independents. en democrats, who come out and say, no, we don't want a santorum, a bachmann, or paul doing that well, we don't want to present iowa that way. we want to go with romney. >> one thing you see, in 2008 we ha a record turnout wth just under 120,000 iowa republicans. and in that four-year span since then we've had 33 straig months of republican registration gains here in iowa. so we've got about 30,000 more wa republicans we had the second largest attendance weaw ever in the straw poll in august. and 's the first chance anybody in the country gets to vote to start the process to replace barack obama. so i would be surprised if we didn't have a strong turnout tuesday night. and with good weather, for those senior citizens, when you look at the poll results, mitt romney does the best, with 60 and over voters. so i think we are set up to have a strong turnout and people do need to remember the iowa

ccuses, as an independent or a democrat, you can register as a republican that night and participe. >> but, more if this were a primar and there were no speeches that night, before you ted th mitt romney would win by ten ints. >> we always have this debate about iowa but it's more intense now. the history of the iowa caucuses, retail cpaigning, a real chance to interactwith voters one-on-one. the truth of the matter is that it's lot like big-time politics everywhere else now. more than 60 million dollars of tv advertising blanking the airwaves. so much oft negative. and here was the headline in a "wall street journal" editorial tuesday. it was as iowa goes, so gs iowa. gail collins piling on in "the new york timeson thursday, writing fe free to ignore iowa, the republicans hope to get more than 100,000 participants. that's about the same number of people in pomona, california. imagine your reaction to seeing a sto saying that a plurality of people in pomona thought newt gingrich would be the best gop

presidential candidate. would you say wow, i guess newt is now the front-runner? possibly not. now i'mrom the los angeles area so i don't like anybo picking on pomona. b, is iowa gng to pick the president? >> wl, listen, this is the quadrennialttack on the hawkeyetate and i think iowa is representative. if you look at the last four national presidentl elections, ia's popular vothas mirrored at has hpened nationally. you also have to think what our role in the process is. we're first. we're not last. we're not the decider. we start winnowing the ield. the one thing you can't discount, there are very few ings the last few presidents inhe united states have in common but their path to the whithouse did start winning the iowa caucuses. >> what are you looking for the next couple of days? >> t me it's the rick perry number. he is the wild card here. newt ihink we clearly know gingrich is on his way down and he frankly may enter single digits before it's all said and done. so this little boomlet of his, amazing rise and fall. what happens to the perry orter? does the rry supporter who walks in on caucus night who is also a social conservative, do

they stick with him? how committed to him are the or do they end up buying the santorum argument that says, you know what, i'mhe consertive that can come out of here, that can win, that can keep going on? and where that -- what happens to that? anby the way, mitt rom fly, he needs a strong rick perry. he needs rick perry just stro enough so that perry will go to south carolina. >> does the field narrow after the results are in >> well, i think it will narrow in the --n the actual -- does the actual playi field narrow? maybeby one candidate, maybe a bachmann. newt has no inservive to get out. perry, let's see what he does. perry is at 15, he stays in and goeso south carolina. if he's closer to 10, i think then he may pack it in. that's nottood for mitt romney, by the way. he needs a few re conservatives to hang around so he can stealouth carolina. >> leave it there. chuck to, mattstrn, thank you very much. wee going to turn now to a ma who has been making a l surge here in iowa, former two-term senator from pennsylvania, rick saorum. >> santorum has spent more time in iowa this cycle than any

other candidate and was the first to visit l 99 counties in the state. with limited resources and moneyae staff he's been traveling fromevent to eventn a pickup truck. earlier is week, a cnn/"time" poll showed him forhe first time in the top three. now he's suddenly turning out larger cros and drawing more media atteion. so he could make a strong showing in iowa by courting conservative voters like previous winner mike hkabee did four years ago. senator santorum, welcome back to "meet the press." >> thank you, david. good to be with you. >> so this is the candidate i'm sitting with who's got the hot hand in iowa. here's the des moines sunday register, romney, paul lead. santorumloses in. we just talked about in tha last segment how you have had this surge, paicularly in the last couple of days. what does it mean? what does it say to you about at's going on here in the ste? >> well, the people of iowa, i've been saying this from the very beginning, people have asked me, whet are you going to get your surge? you're not going anywhere. your message must not be

resonating. i said my surge is goi to come on january 3rd after the people of iowa do what they do, whi is actually analyze the candidates, figure out where their positions are, find out who's the right leader, w's got what it takes to defeat barack obama and to lead this country, and i've aways relie that wn that crunch time comes, in these last two weeks, that's when we were going to start to pick up and that's exactly what's happened. >> you talked about needing a miracle here in io. expectations have changed now. is anhing lesshan a win here not measuri up to expectations? >> that's really pretty funny, actuall because ten days ago i was at 5% and every question i got was, you know, why don't you pack it up? why don't you endorse another candidate? and now ten days later you're saying oh, you've got to win. exceed expectations. ut, we feel very good about the way thgs are going on the ground. we' got a great grassroots organization. we've got a great team of people whore out helping us and they're coitted to making sure that this is an impiric victory in november that we elect somneho is exactly what america nee to

turthis country aund. not someone who well just might be able to win and not really do the change that's necessary in washington. >> one more on ju flat expectations. you feel, at this point particularly, you've got to do better than a michele bachmann or a rick perry in order to fin in this race? >> i've always said there three primaries. you have the conservative primary and you mentioned the other two people who i think are in the conservati primary. you have the libertaan primary and then you he gingrich and romney sort of fighting for the establishmenvote. and our feeling was from the very beginning, if we can pace ahead of perry, and/or bachmann, that we'd be i good shape, and you know, we're moving in that direction certainly. >> you talk about electability. you talkbout conservative credentials. but we've been checkin on this, you know, it will be 20 years ago this wee actually, th you began your service in washington. and had you not lost the re-election you would still be in washington as a senator. but you spent 16 years as a member of congress. four in the house, 12 in the senate, and yet there's nobody who served with you who's endorsed you, have they? >> it's funny.

i haven't asked anybody. and the reason i haven't asked anybody, i'm sitting at 3% in the national polls. and i really haven't gone out andsd any united states senator, i haven't asked a single one to endorse me. but i felt like i had to earn it first. that i had to go o and prove to -- youknow, i losty last race. and the general consensus was, you know, we like rick, but, u kno youan't -- who goes from losing their lastena race to winning the presidential nominati? my answer to that was, well abraham lincoln. but other than abraham lincoln, this is not aommon occurrence -- >> didn't know he was going out on a limb to offer, having served with you, knowing your credentials,nowing your principles. >> again, no one's going to ll you and say, you know, gee, can i, you know, can i help your campaign? 3%. and i would have said to them, you know what, wait. because it doesn't matter. i don't really need or want washington endorsemes. that's not what i'm here to do. i'm here to change washington. so i didn't really seek out endorsements. i didn't really want their endorsements. i didn't think they would help very much. >> would you seek them t now?

> if people want to endorse me, i'dove their endorsemen. but i'm not coming to be buddie with my-- with, you know, my friends in the senate and house, i'm comingo change the entire nature o washington, d.c. it's one -- one of the benefits, frankly, of being out and looking in, and seeing what, you know, sometimesyou said i was running as a consistent conservative. there are votes that itook, not that i advocated these thigs but i voted for some things and look back and say, why the heck did i do tat? you get inlved in sort of t the -- the idea that well, y got to make things happen, and you forget sometimes, you know, sometimes making some things happen is not -- you're better off -- >> i wonder if one of those examp might be pork barrel spending because you' getting hit by rick per suprting the notorio bridge to nowhere. other pork barrel projes where deliver cash for folks back in your home state. do you regret voting for some of those projects? you've defend pork barrel spending in the past. >> what i've said isour role as a member of congress, if you look at the constitution, is to

appropriate money. of course if you appropriate mone youe going to say whe that money's going to go. and historically congress has taken the role of, you know, allocating thoseesources, and m demint who led the charge on pork barrel spending, earmarked things for years and years. so what happened, after i left congress, was budgets began to explode. when i was in the senate, i voted for tough budget i voted for restrictions on spending, and made sure that that didn' happen. and as president, i propose cutting $5 trillion over five years. i propose we're going to balance the budget in at least five years, hopefully sooner. so if you're looking for someo who's voted for tough budgets, voted for spenng restraints, and -- >> but that wasn't my question. do you gret supporting earmarks wheyou did? >> don't regret going out at the time and making sure that the people of pennsylvania, who i was elected to republican, got resources back in to the state. >> so you're saying that's oay but if a budget is tighter it's not? >> no, what happened was abuse. there was abuse of this process. and i agreed with that, that there was an abuse, and it was

leading to more spending. it was leadi to bigger spending bills andt had to end. and i supported it ending. >> but rick perry called it the fleecing of america. do y agree that's what it is? >> that's ptty funny because ck perry was hiring lobbyists to fleece america then to represent the state of texas t get more money back and i suspect if you ask kay hutchinson or johnornyn or anything of the texas delegation wheth rick per wanted money coming back to tes, they'd say yes he did. look, there's a legitimate role for congress to allocate resources. that's what e constitution requires them to do. when the's abuse, then you curb the abus and i supported that. >> let's talk about iowa. your latest ad tks about coservativ cdentials and electability. let mey a portion of it. >> who has the best chance to beat obama? rick santorum. a full spectrum conservative, rick santorum is ro solid on values issues. >> so you've beenmaking that contrast nsistently questioning governor romney. calling him a liberal massachusetts governor. arguing, infact, that he is a

moderate. yet ck in 2008, when he was running for the presidency you were singing a different tune. this was your press release back then, you said governor romney is the candidate who will stan up for the conservative inciples that we hold dear. he has a deep understandingf e important issues confronting our country today, and he is the clearonservative candidate that can go into the general election with united rublican party. will stand up for the conservative principles that we hold dear. you even praised his work on fighting same-sex marriage. what changed? >> wl, wat changed was who he running again. at the time, that was five days or four days before super tuesday, it was after florida. it became clear to me that there werewo candidates in the race at that point. i thought mike huckabee -- i would have loved t have mike hukabeout there. but i made the political judgment, right or wrong, that the best chance to stop john mccain, which was what my concern was, i had served 12 years with john mccain, i like andespect john mccain immensely personally, and he's done a lot of great things, obviously, for this country. but i did not think he w the

right person, based on my experience and deep knowledge of his record, that heas the right persono be the nominee -- >>ou saidomney will std up f the conservative priiples that we hold dear. >> compared to -- >> but you didn't stay compared to. >> of course i'm not going to y compared to. i'm trying to add voe kate for his candacy. you didn't mean that then? >> ias saying it relative to john mccain. remember it not like i was an early supporter of romney. i endorsed him seven days before he droned out of the race. maybe i was a little bit -- >> does he ha conservative values and principles? >> of course. everybody on that stage that is in these debates has conservative valus, vis-a-vis president obama, and nerally reflects t rublican party. the question is, a those values the ones that you can truswhen they become president of the united states? is itomeone who you know i going to fight not just for certain thin, but for the entire republican platform? why? because those things integrate together, and you've heard me talk about this many times. you can't have a strong ecomy, and just a strong economic plan unless you have strong families

and you have moralalues in this country. why? because that's the underpinning of our socty. >> but you talk about -- y talk about trust as a conservative. and youave accused romneyf attacking back and forth as he sought electin, callng him a liberal governor from massachusetts. but we look at your own record, as well, running for re-electi to the senate i 2006. in a democratic state of pennsylvania. now, here in iowa you've taken the pledge, opposing abortion. back on this program, tis summer, u said, you oppo abortion, without exption. >> right. >> and yet when you were running fo re-election in 2006, you had a different viw. and this is what you tol the associated press the question was,o you support legaliz abortion if a woman has been raped or if she is the vict of incest? what about if a woman's heah or life is in danger, please explain your answer. back then you said, i would support laws tinclude exceptionin cases of rape and incest, and when the life of the moth is at risk. so, didn't you, when you were ru for re-election, do the same thing you've acused romney of, which is moderating your stance to try to win a

democratic state? >> no, not at all. today i would support laws that would provide for those exceptions. but i'm not for them. in other wds, i support the hyde amendmt. the hyde amendment provides exception for rape and incest and the life of the mother. yes, i support laws that provide those exceptions because if we can get those passe then we need to do that. but -- >> that's not a violation of your pledge? >> no. i try -- i supported th partia birth abortion ban act. does thatan all abortion no. but it moves the country in the right direction. so what i've said in the past consistent is i'll support laws that move the ball forward, that doesn't mean that's my position and that's where i'd like to go. but that's exact the direction that we need to go in. >> the issue of moderationis -- goes beyond abortn. back in 2006, you were fighting the idea at you were seen as too conrvativ you had television ads, heralding the fact that you opposed reductions in the minimum wage. thatou were fighting cuts against amtrak. isn't your history to try to moderate, both when fighting for

re-election, but also as a memberof congress? to try to fd common ground and compromise? >> of course background to find compromise. that's what you have to do in order to get this done. but you don't cmpmise on your principles. i uslfare reform as an example. i -- i went out and helped author the welfare reform bill that became the contract with america bill, a then when i was in the united states senate, i managed that bl as a first-term, firsyear member of the united states senate. i went up against daniel patrick moynihan and tedennedy and battled over two vetoes o president clinton and was able to get it done. did make comproses? you bet. but the compromises i made were notfundamental to the transformation that was imrtant in welfare. which was to end the federal entitlement, the only bill that i'm awareof, only lawhat's actually ever ended a bad-based federal entitlement. i was the author and manager the bill on. and we put time limits on welfare. and we put a work requirement in place. those were the things that i believe weretransformational. was i willing to compromise on day care funding? yes, i w. was i willing to compromise on transportation to t folks from

welfare to work? ye, i was. but what we did was something that was moving the direction of a more limited government, and in ordero get the necessary votes get that done, you have to make compromise. but, we did a direction of limited government, maybe less than at we wanted to. but we weren't going in the rection of more government, and gettingess of more. that's where republicans have been in error for so many years. and that is, compromising on just a little less big government, instead of saying no. o more compromises and less big government. wel compromise on less-less government. but, not going the other way. >> one of the things you look at as an insurgent party trying to be an incumbent president, u've said that, second term of president obama would be dangerous for the country. is that you look at the party that's making the challenge and here's threality. disapproval for the republican party right now in congress, i should say, approval of republicans in congress stas at 26%.

that's far less than the president's approval rating. and dawn bowles writes this in "the washington post," for gop candidates worri about the party's brand, a year ago after their win in the midterm elections republicans were full of confidence. as americansook for next november the questiomany will be asking is, are the reblicans real ready to lead? in three political enas congress, the stes and the presidential campaign trail plubs he left a checkered record in the past year. in congress it was th debt debacle forcing a near shutdow of th government. the payroll tax debate that looked to go in the president's favor. the fight with the unions in the states like wisconsin. do you fat republican leaders in cgress for not doing more totoe government work better, through more compromise for e esident? >> you have to have someone you can work with. a this president has done more divide than any other president that i've ever witnessed in my lifetime. this president goes out and gives speech after speech after speech tryg todivide america between class, between income group, between racial and ethnic

oups. this is the great divider in chief. and it's very difficult when u're being led by the president on a regular basis, not just as a party but individually, to then -- and the president, who i don't believe has met with boehner or any of e rublican leadership, and now six months, har to compromi and work with someone who won't meet with you. who won't sit down and try to negotiatthings and try to talk. so i'm not surprised at all that republicans are havg a fficult time with someone w has no interest -- >> he met with him. even the debt fight over the summer was a constant set o meetings. so thacan't be accurate. >> if you look at it. the lastime he's had meetings, i know it's been severalmonths. i know that prn, when i was there, and president reaga routinely met on a regular basis, with the oer side. and developedtionships. you know, this is about trust. you don't build trust by going upand running around the country, beating up on your opponent. he's the preside of everybody in this country. as president of the united states, i would be someone who would meet regularly, who would talk and try to build

relationships of trust. and this president has not done that. >> you don't fault republicans for intransigence on taxes or spending or other areas of potential compromise with the president? >> again, we go backo the basic fa. federal government now is spending abt 25% of gdp. that's historically the average is about 18%. we have an explosion of spending. and the problem in this country is, government oppression, spending, that's leading to huge des and deficits. what the republicans have said is, no more. we are going to move in the direction of smler government. and president obama has no intere in doing that. i think republicans are right to stand and fight on this. and the president seems to be absolutely disinterested in listening to what the american public said in t last election, which is we want more limited government. he did not get the message. i gus he's going to have to ge this message, hopefully, in november. >> before you go iant to ask you about foreign policy. you've been very ctical of the president, particularly on the issue of iran, which has been a

big issue of debate here in owa. let me play a portion of that. >> this president, for eery thug and hooligan, for every radical islamist, he has had nothing but appeasement. saw that duri the lead up to worldar ii. appeement. >> how can that possibly be accurate you take an objective look at the forgn policy of this administration? what on iran, specifically, separates the approach that president obama has taken and that of president bush. >> number one, he didn't support the pro-democracy movement in in in 2009 during the green revolution. almost immediately aer the election -- i mean, excuse me, likwithin hours after the polls closed ahmadinejad announced he won with 62% of the vote. within a fe days, president obama bacally said that that election was legitimate one >> what would that have de specifically to disarm iran. >> i understand why the president announcing a minute after the pos close he won, he

comes from chicago, so i get it. eroblem was this w an illegitimate election, the people in the streets were rioting saying please support us president obama, we are the pro-democracy movement. we want to turn this theocracy that's been at war with the united states, that's developing a nuclear weapon, that' killing our troops in afghastan and iraq with ies and the president of the united states turned his back on them. at the same time, a year late we have the same situation where muslim brotherhood and islamists are in the streets of egypt opposing an ally of ours, not a sworn enemy like iran, but an ally of ours like mubarak and he joins the radica instead of standing with our friends. >> first of all that's patently contradictory. if you say you support democracy, there was a democratic movement in egypt and the muslim brotherhood got elected. so how can you be pro-democracy in some countries and not ohers which is consistent? no, the muslim brotherhood is not about democcy. the muslim rotherhood are islamists. they're going to iose sharia law -- >> but i asked you about disarming iran. there no material differe in terms of how the bush

admistration soughto disarm iran and what the obama administration has do. >> there's a material difference in this respect. number one, the sh administration worked with me, in passing the iran freedom support act wch i authored which imposed tough sanctions on the irania nuclear program, and provided funding for the pro-democra movement. when president obama came into office he cut that funding. president obama did n provide funding in to iran to help those folks who wanted to erthrow this democracy. and when the time came to support them, he chose not to. that is a substantive difference between my policy, which i was a leader on in the senate, and when president bush tried to do when he was president. >> the reality is there is no good option to disarm iran. >>yes, there is. >> the bush administration knew at. this administratn knows that. ll me what you'd do differently then? >> i'd put fort a five point plan. use covert activity -- >> which is already being done. ther's covert activity to set back their program by the israelis, by the united states.

>> we know by the israelis. we don't have any evidence, if you look at what's being done, mostf the evidence to actually trails back to the israelis and the methodology that they use. there's no evidence the ited states is at all compcit in working at that. that's what -- i would be very direct that we wou, in fact, and openly talk about this. w? because i want to make sure that iran knows that when i say that iran is not getting a nuclear apon, that will actually affect out policies tha make that happen. this president has not done that. he has opposed tough sanctions on iran, on their oil program. why? because he's concerned about the enomy and his re-election instead of the long-term national security interests of this countr would say to every foreign scientist that's going in to iran to hp them with their program, you will be treated as an enemy combatant like an al qaeda member. and finally i wouldbe working openly with the stte of israel and i would be saying to the iranis you needto open up those facilities, you bgin to dismantlehem and make them available to inspectors or we will degrade those facilities with air strikes and make it

very public. >> u wld lay out a red line and if they pass it, air strikes. >> iran would not get a nuclear weapon under my watch. >> two evious presidents have said that. you would order air strik if it became clear -- >> yes, that's the plan. i mean you can't go outnd say, this is -- this is the problem with this administration. you can't go out and say this i what i'm for and then do nng. you become a paper tiger. and people don't respect our r country. and our allies can't trust us. that's the problem with this administration. >> all right. before i let you go, back to the litics. e you going toin this thing? >> i feelgood. i mean that's up to the people of iowa. i've always said that the people of iowaare the ones i put my tru in. not just ioa, new hampshire. we've got a great team u in new hampshire. we've got about two dozen state legislators who have signed on to our campaign. county attorneys, sheriffs, 've got a great team up there and we're going to have a big jump here in iowa. i don't know what it' going to be. unlike rick perry, unlike michele bachmann, we're goi to new mpshire andompete in evy region of this country. i com from the northeast. ie been able to g the blue

collar voters, the rgan democrats, to vote for me in the past. we're going do the same thing anthat's why we're going to n this election. >> senator santorum, thank you. we'll see new new hampshire next week for t debate. coming up, on new year's day, ron paul with a strong showing in the pls drawing fire from his republican rivals while mitt romneyets his sights on president obama. ho just four years ago pulled off asurprise come from behind win here. plus the preside and his team gearing up for the fight, as well. he's going to the important battleground state ofhio the day after the caucuses. it's a new year and a new campaign. we'll brk it all down with our political roundtable. joining us the des moines register's kathie obradovich. strategist mike murphy. davbrooks of "the new yor times." mark halperin of "time" magazine and nbc's andrea mitchell. m@n

coming up countdown to the iowa caucuses. we'll hav fu analysis from ou polical roundtable. joining me,kathie obdovich

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columnist david brooks, "time" magazine senior political analyst mark halperin. columnist for the des moines register, kathie obradovich and host of "andrea mitchell reports" on msnbc, nbc's andrea mitchell. thanks for being hee. happy new year. great political stor todig into. major moments of the week, and kathie obradovich with "the des moines register." iowa, as a toss-up. who's going to win this thing? >> boy, you know, it is a moving target right now. and right now all the movement is behind ricksantorum. ouroll actually, the first two days that we were in the field this week had romney and paul neck and neck. we actually had an illustration

on the font page for our pap of romney and paul arm wrestling. and when we came in, sa the last two days, we had to put in rick santorum into the picture. so he is the only candidate that is urging upward right ow. everybo els is static except ron paul who is trending down. i think he peaked a week ago. >> mik murphy, you're a veteran of these parts, and also of t tactics of expectations. >> sue. >> i spoke to some romney folks last night, who actually suggesd they think santorum's going to win this thing. >> right. >> are they setting us up to say, oh, what a win by mitt romney? >> i think they thnk santorum might win this thing. they ha t easil of a life seven ys ago. they had gingrich declining an r paul, who would be very easy to beat in the full series of caucuses. now they've got rick santorum coming up fast, i think the surge is tally legitimate, your poll shows that, and consolidating that social conservative vote which in the past has always been the k to finishing at least second in the owa caucus. so think they would love to beat santorum, but if santorum

beats them, they're still in the top two and there's great clarity. there's no way romney comes t of here loser if he's in the top two. now he knows who his opponent is going to be in new hampshire, which is not social conservative territory at all, and will roll the process out. i think the romney people would ke a win. i'm not sure they need one. >> part of that analysis is hey, santorum's good for us, we keep it expanded, take thatield to south carolina, he'll go after rick perryf perry can stay in the race, bet are for romney. if the issue is who is the stalwart conservative, did ri santorum help himself this morning in the final push? >> i think he had a convoluted answers to two your question one about his support for mitt romnefour yes ago and also on rape and incest exceptions to ortion when he was running in president. right now i see two buckets of scenarios. scenarios that are great for mitt romney and scenarios that are good or decent for mitt romney. they would love to leave here for the top three, in whatever order, paul, santorum or romney because they believe ty will neverose in the long run and maybe even the medium run to

santorum or paul. gingrich and perry represent bigger treats for them. and i think the worst case for romney is if one of those two guys surgn the last few days. no indication that will happen. t they're both out there working hard. >> andrea mitchell, you' been out here reporting. what are you seeing? >> well, the crowds are mu smaller th you'd expect. smaller than the huckabee crowds were four years ago. but there's that evangelical core. when we talk about organization, and enthusiasm, they're going to come out. and i think that as mark and the rest of us al noticed with you today, santorum may have stubbed his toe a bit by you pinning him down on what he said when heas runing for re-election in pennsylvania in 2006. the exceptions that he previously agred to. the fact that is willing to compromise, he said not on his principles, but to gethings done. a little bit convoluted. and the fact that he said he made a political decision to support mitt romneygainst john mccain. a political decision. >> if the crime, david brooks, is moderaon in today's republican party, what are we learning now, a cple days away from actual voting beginning in

a republican caucus, about the state of the party? >> yeah, it's a pretty conseative party. but it's not -- theyon't want dog mattists. and think santorum helped himself today. his problem is not that he compromises too much. his problem is people can show he's too rich and that he can show he's a practical politician that's a plus for him. iowa has supported candidates who hve not gonen to great success, i don't think rick santorum is one of them. in part becausee's got some working class credentials as opposed to romney. in part becausee tellsery good story about connecting moral concerns withheeconom and partly he's just a good politician i covered him in the senate when he lostbadly in pennsylvania. he was a pretty bad politician. if you look at him today, like you're a baseball scout looking at a pitcher, you'd say, yeah, this guy is good enougho play in the major eagues. so i think he's going be reasonably strong. i'm not su he's going to win the nomination. >> you talk about the economic message that you think -- >> one thing that's not being covered as much because it's based on soal consevenives, he's still the guy with the blue state pennsylvania chops and he does a very good message on manufauring jobs which is a bell ringer in eastern iowa

which people from outsi iowa don't know is a place with a lot of light manufacturing. i make one other point about this morning. i thought he did fairly well. he's always going to be pro-life enough for the pro-life voters. that's not going to be his problem. but there's something else happening on sunday morning, which is evangelical churches across iowa in the pulpit, they're seeing that poll and seeing one our guys is moving fast. and i think messages are going to go out that are going to be very bad for perry, very bad for hat's left of bachmann, to go with rick to win this. >> socia cservatives will move toward him, and say, that's it that's the alternative we've been looking for? >> social conservatives have been like all the other voters in iowa. theywanted to give everybody a try and they are undecided and unwilling to unify, and even in our poll, they are not unified. rick santorumolled about 23% of people who described emselves as born-again but ron paul and mitt romney each got 18%. so they're not united. they may, inded, start moving that way, the interests of having one of them, as mike

said, at the top. >> ar we not, this is for everybody, the volatility we've seen in the polling here, and who comes out of these debates, what does thatell us? is it ultimately going to be potrayed as whether romney can get above that 25% threshold is that not the big issue? >> i think it's a little deeper. one of the things that struck me from all e rollies i've seen is a sense the country has ge seriously off course. and it's a values thing. a all the campaigns are trying to tap into th sayi we've lost it. let's restore. let's go back to what we've lost. and you see thatn the crowds hen you talk to the ople. but when you ask them what do you want to do, no one has a clue. and so -- >> when you fe that anger, it's that wrong track, number that we see, it's the anger against washington. ron paul early on tapped in to that. i think he really hurt himself on foreign policy. and on making himself not electab. the sense in the polls tha we saw starting with, withthe polls on wednesday, then our poll on friday, and yours today,

he's just not acceptable to so many people because of his foreign policy positions. and going in to south carolina, in particular, that's going to be a very big problem. >> the ron paul thing is overrated and i'll go on the dangerous prediction and say he'll be the surprise disappointing finish. a lot of his function is, will new people show up at the caus? and we always get seduced by this argument because it's so much fun margins are going to land. historically new people don't. it's republican primary voters and activist in the range. i think because of the wrong tracknergy and frustration the turnout should be a litt higher than last time. >> 27% of those polled are new caucusgoers. >> --id bring new people in the caucus. i think we've got a different electora than we did in008 because the democrats don't have a contest. so you have people who were independents particular, who nt a caucus, and a lot of them a going toward ron paul. he is the least ideological on the social issu and also, what we're getting is i think a

desperation for real change. and i think a lot of those folks are flocking toward ron paul because he is the guy who is complety different. >> i think he wasimtwhich is a these polls measure early, noise meter. now it's time for votin i don't know i can vote. >> can i interject something else into this. the sunday "new york times" and the leadtory is obama strategy for '12 election, attack congress. white housofficials i talked to say tha was sensationalized, that that was overwritten, yes the president isoing to talk about contrasts with congress but he certainly hopes and will work for cooperation. but we're beginning to see the outlines already in this contest ofhathe general election will look like, the general election campaign, no matter who the nominee is. now here was then-setor obama, when he won in ioa, back in 2008, this is what he said in part. >> the ti has come for a president who will be honest about the choies and the challenges we face. who will listen to you, and

learn from you, even wn we disagree. who won't just tell you what you want to hear, but what you need to kno >> and mitt romney, on the campaign trail ts week, is actually shadowing where president obama, then-senator obama, campaigned in iowa, and he's got a very different message. this is it in part. >> fur years ago this week the barack obama vsited daveort and he gave a speech right down the street, and like mos ohis campaign speeches, it was long on promises. he promised he was going to bring people together. and then he closed his speech with these words, he says, this is our moment, this our time. well, mr. president, you've had your moment. we've seen the relts. and now, mr. president, this is our time. >> mark halperin the argument is the trangz formation leader that president obama was supposed to be, the truth tellers to tell

americans what they needed to know, not what they wanted to know, has failed to show. >> it's clearly the strongest message any republican can have. mitt romney has driven it more than anyone else in the field. he also has by every measure you can use to judge a campaign, fund-raising, opposition research, far and away the best campaign of anyone in the race. the white house ready for him. last night, new year's ev right, romney finished late in the day event says he would veto the dream act giving more opportunity to immigrants to this country. the white house jumped on that, new year's eve, david axelrod, the president's adviser, tweeting about it. dnc putting out press release. they are very aggressive. they are very skilled. if yore looking for electability, though, again the only opation out there right now that got anythng like the potential on the scale that the president will bring to this is mitt romne >> i wld say the organizationalcale h even are like aircraft carriers. i have a little problem with the mesaging, though. here 's all patriosm. it's tom sawyer. i love america, you love

america. the sub te is you might think i'm a rich guy with a strange religionut'm just li you. i think that's probably not enough to win in a country where people feel it's in decli. that the scope of hislans are not as big as the scope of the problems. the problem that also appli to barack oba. >> -- this week though, potentially? >> potentially >> -- is not going to be silent, also. >> -- take that on. because this i a big issue about whether president obama has measured up as a leader. i mean, there's real fears of national decline, a snse of the country's on the wrong track. this is a campaign about big things ultimately for vers. >> and t president is trying to respond to that. he's actually doing a video message to all of the democratic caucusgoers. he wants to be present in some fashion, so he is going to have democratic caucusing with presidential message by video. but the point is that he has not yet found a way. he has not found his voice. d they say that "the new york times" story is overwritten that he's running against congress. that hasorked for him in the

payroll tax fight but he still has to find that message for the state of the union, for whatever his nexplatform is going to be that is obviously the next one. to tell people how the cuntr can be better at a time where his only economic message can b it's not as bad as it could have been. it's better than it was. >> or -- and republicans will mae it worse. they'll take you back. >> there's a really interestg question for mitt romney next week. i think it's highly lily santorum will come out hereith a lot of energy. i don't mean second first. it will settle down, that will be what the medi will want. rick will come at it from the right. if you run on the romn campaign you've got a choice, eitherust grind it out and have a contest on the right. you s you're pro-life. the white house is going to be giggling for tee months of that. or do you know you got the organizational strength and the depth and santoru it will be ke drinking from a fire hose for him to try to catch up. do you triangulate? do you take a few risks in the primary but do you boue off santorum to grab the middle again which a much beter general election strategy. >> i wan to get ck to tactics in just a seco.

david brooks stayn this larger theme which is the white house, i talked to senr advisers say, look, can win the broader vision where the cotry is going, where it should go. we can win independent voters on that message. what is the vision that we're learning about of this republican variet party? >> it's a vision that thinks government's too big. the thing santorum brings to the table which the others don't talk about as well is community and values. he really was a big anti-poverty guy when he was in the congress. re talks about families and ties that to business a little betr. that's been lacng from what has become a very libertarian, anti-tax, economics only party. and it is in danger of reverting back into that. >> kathie what are the story lines that come out ofuesday as you see them? >> ll, i think that there's a couple things. one, that we're very interested in here in iowa is just how our iowa caucus is viewed nationall and the results here will feed into that discussion. does somebody come out of iowa that people perceive has very little chance of being the

nominee, like ron paul or rick santorum? that's something that we're worried about and some republicans are worried about that. and finally, i think that the questithen,s,ou know, how did a conservatives fre in the future in iowa. >> mark halperin? >> every time mitt romney's been challenged in this proces it's very well-skilled opposition research team has killed the pern who's challenged him. killed rick rry, kille nt gingrich. they haven't lifted a finr to kill rick santorum. if he do come out of the air, and it's perceived as a two peon race. he might not have to choos between triangulation, they may tactically kill rick santorum with an opposition research file that's like this. then the qution will be can santorum rvive that? does he have the skill and the ability to fightback? because he won't have the nfrastructure. he won't have the money. as he talked about with you, he won't have the big enorsements and people backing him thelp him. >> $17 million spent in blank blanketing the air waufs here in iowa, these outside groups, super pacs are pounding and they did it without romney rig having to lift a finger.

>> d the fact that romney is not perceived, there is no blowback as there's been in past campaigns because of the citizens unid supreme court decision, which now has opened the door for tese super pacs to come in and they just killed gingrich, just pummeled him, not that he might not he self-destructed anyway. but they just went after him, a mitt romney doesn't get the blame. >> good for mitt romney right now. the minute he's no longer good for him, super pacs will shift their focus. >> what's the story line wednesday morng? >> who the hell is antorum? but tre's a point abo th, not ju the super pacs, easier to crush a guy, negative ads in one state than in ten, santorum is a lot more competitive than ron paul wouldbe. but it's the media. the media works like the jurassic park dinosaurs, 30 feet tall, huge teeth, with all due respect, nothe biggest brain, and it follows movement. ricksantorum stomps over there and tries to eat rick santom. he's going to be the happiest y in the world tuesd night. wedneay he's got to stand on

his headdrink from a fire house witho drowning and learn chinese in one week to roll this thing out nationay. not impossible. going to be hard. he's going to get looked at rd. >> mike, one of the things -- rick santorum really hates us sometimes, and santorum ran a bad campaign when he tried to get re-elected in pennsylvania it's because he gobsessed with the media, got very sour and self-destructed. we'll see how temperameal he reacts to this. >> where does this thing get decided, andrea? >> it could get decided in south caroa or florida. if not sooner. >> let's look at the calendar to remind people where we go as we move forward. tuesday,f course, the iowa caucuses. new hampshire primary is january 10th. the following tuesday, january 21st is south carolina. january 31st florida. mark, this is a busy january. does this author for it being wrapped up in january or am a drawn-out 2008-like affair? >> unless someone c beat mitt romneyn one of the first four, or two of the first four, i

think it's wrapped up by the state of the union. if he's cut and he shows lot of weakness that's a different story. but there's nindition o that right now. >> if he wins new hampsre and he wins florida, a that's a neck breaker on everybody else, not impossible to win the delegate count is lighter but i think he is the commanding front-runner the day afters florida front-runner. >> how you haver in 5b9 is president obama? >> he's vulnerability. i'd say he's a slight underdog. very slight. who knows what' going to happen in europe. he doesn't have the strongest opposition in the world. >> kathie you're on the ground in iowa. who's going to win this thing? >> you kn, i can't predict it. it's too fast mov i will predict that a lot of people are going to make up their mind on caucus night and it ry well could be a surprise. >> all right. we'll leave it there. thank you all very much bere we go, a programming note, next sunday morning is our live nbc news facebook republican presidential debate right here on "mt the press." the final dete before the new hampshe primary. for the past mth wve been asking new hampshire facebook

users what the most important issue is for them in the primary,noverwhelming majority, 58% say it is, in fact, the economy. so if yo have a question you'd like asked in the bate, go t our facebook page, that's at facebook.com/meetthepress and you can post it there. that is all for the day. i'll be on the ground in iowa through the caucuses and on to new hampshire reporting on the primary. we'll be back next week with ou

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