one. >> 10,000 bucks? $10,000 bet? >> that's a lot of money for most people. i guess not for mitt. >> mitt romney is clearly on the attack. >> zany is not what we need in a president. >> my campaign's going to focus on positive ideas and positive solutions. >> you believe he's trying to buy this one? >> i don't know. $3.5 million in negative ads you tell me. >> romney mocked newt gingrich for his failure to get on the ballot in gingrich's home state of virginia. >> it's more like lucille ball at the chocolate factory. you've got to get it organized. >> here i am in the chocolate factory. >> since the summer, seven different republicans have led in the polls here. a new poll finds romney out in front. >> newt gingrich is a man on fire. >> four-way tie right now, you see cane, paul, romney, gingrich. >> 9-9-9, doing fine. i'm suspending my presidential

campaign. >> ron paul sit atop the latest poll. >> how much was incendiary. >> good-bye. >> that's just like the last month. the hits keep on coming. check out newt gingrich. just a few minutes ago. >> are you calling mitt romney a liar? >> yes. >> you're calling mitt romney a liar? >> well, you seem shocked by it. yes. this is a man whose staff created the pac, his millionaire friends fund the pac, he pretends he has nothing to do with the back. he's not telling the american people the truth. it's like a pretense that he's a conservative. >> what a wild campaign season it's been. i'm joined by nbc's david gregory, moderator of "meet the press." good morning to you, david. wow, it seems like newt gingrich is a little miffed this morning. >> well, i think he's ready to fight. he's ready to fight mitt romney clearly as he comes out of iowa, particularly as he goes to south carolina.

i think gingrich understands there's the "meet the press" debate coming from new hampshire on sunday. there were very much looking forward to, just a couple of days before the primary there. and on to south carolina, which is where gingrich and other, you know, self-described social conservatives can really take a stand against mitt romney, who is, after all, a rather weak front-runner. he may look stronger if he can win here. and we'll find that out later. >> with a huge advertising dollars spent that the guy who spent almost nothing but maybe shook 1 million hands is the one challenging for the lead, rick santorum. what's it going to take for him to win tonight, david? >> well, it's the unknown. you know, this is a -- this is a state where folks work hard. they caucus. they show up. they give speeches. they work the crowd. they don't simply pull a lever. you don't know who is going to be there. we know how much volatility there's been, latest "the des moines register" poll that came out over the weekend indicated a very big percentage of folks who

hadn't made up their mind yet, and won't until they go to the caucus. so, that's where that surge of santorum gets very difficult to measure. but he's getting the attention at the right time. he's generating buzz at the right time. and now there's some expectation that he's the one who could actually beat out the romney candidate. in any primary fight you're looking at two an establishment front-runner and an alternative who is a populace social conservative front-runner. mitt romney's been the establishment front-runner against a constellation, not a candidate. and now santorum if he can do well here, has a chance to become that. >> you know, obviously mitt romney has been campaigning a lot on the idea of elect ibilty that he is the one. i mean, how does rick santorum or a ron paul counter that argument, or do they need to? is it clear how important elect ability is to the folks in iowa right now. >> i think it it is pretty

important. i was at an event with rick santorum yesterday and guy in the crowd said i'm undecided, i'm a conservative, and frankly i'm leaning toward romney because of his executive experience. i talked to other republican office holders in the state and they say that, look, these are party activists, they're stalwarts, yes, but they want somebody who can win. don't understand estimate how much intensity there is to beat barack obama, how much people are fed up with the process, politics in washington that they want to see a real change and, sure, obama talked about change three years ago. but that desire's still very much there. i thielectability is on the min of iowa not the stalwart conservative. that gets pointed out by rick santorum's ad, a final argument, is about the fact that he believes he can beat obama. so he's trying to make that argument that he's not just some sort of movement conservative, but that he can actually pull it

together. >> and you know iowa doesn't always tell us who the next president is going to be obviously. but it does often help us winnow the field. what do you think the chances are that it's going to be that this time or is everybody going to hang on for at least maybe new hampshire, south carolina? >> well, it's said that iowa eliminates losers it doesn't crown a front-runner. i think that could be different. i think mitt romney, who set expectations low, can win here and go in as a favorite to new hampshire, where he should do well, no republican candidate has won the first two, he becomes extremely difficult to beat. but there is another scenario that's just as viable, which is that romney does not do well here, expectations have been creeping up and there's some blood in the water and then it goes to new hampshire and then on to south carolina, and there's still a lot of folks in the race. i do think that maybe michele bachmann drops out if she does poorly here. a number of candidates, you've got perry, you've got gingrich, you've got paul and perhaps

bachmann going on to south carolina making that as joe kleine from "time" magazine said that's the super bowl here for the certainly conservatives. and that could elongate this process. it's worth reminding viewers that this is not like it normally is in a republican primary, which that is winner takes all delegates. everybody can get some delegates here, depending how they place in these polls, both in the caucuses and the primary states so there may be more incentive to keep it going. >> david gregory, we will see you sun, not just for "meet the press," but they've been so consequential these debates, looking forward. we should say, that's newt gingrich live. i think he's in ellie's tea. we've heard that before. in muscatine, iowa. david mentioned it a minute or two ago, the ads, you can't escape them, $16 million of tv advertising in iowa. here's just a glimpse. >> the fox guarding the henhouse

is like asking a congressman to fix washington. bad idea. >> i'm mitt romney. i believe in america. >> who has the best chance to beat obama? rick santorum. >> gingrich found guilty of ethics violations. mitt creates romney care. >> i'm joined by howard bragman. good to see you. i've never seen anything quite like this. let's go through these. michele bachmann's new ad, hit the air this week. let's take a look. >> born and raised in iowa, only one candidate has been a consistent conservative fighter who fought obama care, fought increasing our debt ceiling, even as other republicans were cutting deals with obama. >> comparing herself to margaret thatcher, gutsy, isn't it? >> she's pretty gutsy, anyway. >> does it work? >> no, it's not. what's interesting, positive ads just -- they're like eating a frito, they go over your head and they have no sticking power, it's negative ads that do the real work in the campaign. >> we've seen what impact

they've had on newt gingrich, part of why he has said the things he said about mitt romney. let me play an example of that. >> i've made mistakes at times. >> so far, newt gingrich has admitted his mistakes or flipped on, teaming up with nancy pelosi, immigration, medicare, health care, iraq, attacking mitt romney, and more. >> i made a big mistake in the spring. >> haven't we had enough mistakes? >> what does experience tell you? why are negative ads so effective. >> a couple things one, they're more cop plex. they take us longer to understand and digest and stay with us longer, they're stickier and more viral. people like to talk about negative stuff, we were a gossipy society. by mate nur, we're cynical people, particularly when it comes to politics and these feed our cynicism beautifully. >> i think an amazing one by ron paul, caught our attention. let me play that one for you.

>> what's up with the sorry politici politicians? when it's showtime, wimpering like little shih tzus. you want big cuts? ron paul's been screaming it for years. budget crisis, no problem. cut a trillion bucks year one, trillion with a "t". looks look it's something made for spike tv. is this part of ron paul's appeal? does that represent who he is as a candidate? >> that represents who he thinks he believes he is. but he's the same guy who won't own his newsletter. he owns parts of the newsletters that have done well over time. the pars that don't, racism, the homo phobia, the hatemongering part, he had nothing to do with that. this is a guy who is talking the talk and walking the walk. >> does that help change the conversation, refocus the conversation away from newsletters? >> this is a man who is never going to be president. yes the ads certainly call attention away from the

newsletter, because those are more nuance but they're not going to change the outcome. >> i think one of the reaps, swand i'm not first to say this, rick santorum is rising because everybody else has been in the league, they've all gotten attacked and so by being the last, the people haven't really had much opportunity to do that. but rick perry did try to get in on the action. let me play that one. >> which republican running for president voted for the bridge to nowhere earmark? yes, susie from des moines. >> rick santorum? >> correct. santorum voted for the bridge to nowhere, and a highway bill full of pork. >> quick turnaround on that ad? is it too late? >> it's way too late for rick perry. negative ads take somebody down. ask newt gingrich, who has gone down 10, 12 points. you know, remember a month ago he said, it's obvious i'm going to get the nomination. today it's obvious he's not going to get the nomination. what they don't do is bill up the person who wants to. when you have this many people running it's whack-a-mole, one

goes down, the next one pops up, it's unpredibabctable. >> chris matthews you have a tough guy on the stump or in interviews but you look at his ads, you know there's a lot of -- i think i'm misrepresenting him -- anyway, his closing argument, about him being this nice guy, about him quoting all of these patriotic songs and you have this on the airwaves. let me show you. the mitt romney ad, do we have it? no. don't have it. but they show, you know, cornfields and, you know, the waving flag. >> at the same time he's got his political action committee running the nastiest, negative ads about gingrich and others, too, which he's distancing himself from and that's exactly what gingrich was calling hem a liar about. so he's having it both ways

right now. >> can it get worse? >> it's going to be much worse. one opponent, when it's obama versus whoever, it's going to be a really ugly race. lots of negative ads. so fasten your seat belt and get ready. >> get ready for the ride. howard bragman, come back. rick santorum gets annance dorsment and a bus, a bus from a large reality show family. we've got those details in five. occupy protesters making good on their pledge to follow candidates in iowa wherever they go. >> let's talk about the constitution again. and, by the way -- sorry? i'm sorry? >> that was romney's fourth campaign stop yesterday at a warehouse near des moines. "the des moines register" says about 15 protesters were removed from the event, three of them arrested. another 12 protesters were arrested at a hotel in downtown

des moines protesting corporate money in politics? first family back at the white house after a continue-day vacation in hawaii. tonight president obama will get in on the iowa act, hosting a live web video. what will it take for obama to went a second term? t "the washington post." [ male announcer ] wouldn't it be cool if you took the top down on a crossover? if there were buttons for this? wouldn't it be cool if your car could handle the kids... ♪ ...and the nurburgring? or what if you built a car in tennessee that could change the world? yeah, that would be cool. nissan. innovation for today. innovation for tomorrow. innovation for all. ♪ innovation for all. now there's no need to hold back. new revolutionary scope dualblast obliterates strong food odors

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newt gingrich refuses to be knocked down, even as admits he probably won't win the iowa caucuses. >> whatever i do tomorrow night will be a victory because i'm still standing. this is the second time in a year and twice, you know, people tried to drive me out of the race and i'm still here. >> well the latest polls raising

questions about whether jon huntsman will be standing after new hampshire. where he staked his campaign. >> i think there's room for more than one. i think there will be more than a single ticket leaving new hampshire. but we're not -- we're not concluding at all at this point that anyone's going to win this big. i don't think anyone's looking for a coronation. >> a double dose of paul on the campaign trail yesterday. senator rand paul coming out to support his dad and trying to motivate tea partiers to caucus today. but it was a much bigger family that stole the show when the duggers showed up to endorse rick santorum, 19 kids and counting. the reality star said it's family values that led them to santorum. >> last time we came to iowa we helped mike huckabee win iowa and worked in the campaign and helped do phone calls and everything. this time we believe that rick

santorum is the candidate that we need to get behind. >> now to our caucus quiz. which republican, who was not an incumbent, had the best ever showing at iowa caucuses? we'll have that answer in a few moments. but tweet us your answe answer @jans&co. "your business" entrepreneur of the week. the chinese-born american citizen owner of chesapeake bay candles. her product was manufactured in china. but now she's moved the company to a multi million dollar factory in maryland. she says the move reduces shipping and and inventory costs and brings much-needed jobs to the u.s. watch "your business" sunday mornings 7:30 on msnbc. i remember the day my doctor told me i have an irregular heartbeat, and that it put me at 5-times greater risk of a stroke. i was worried. i worried about my wife, and my family. bill has the most common type of atrial fibrillation, or afib. it's not caused by a heart valve problem.

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back with the answer to our caucus quiz. since 1980, which gop candidate has won the highest percentage of the vote? george w. bush, 41% back in 2000 besting steve forbes and alan keyes. al gore won by .3. republicans aren't the only one watching who wins today. dnc chair wowoman debbie wasser schultz making a bold prodiction. >> i'm 100% confident the people of iowa and the american people will win the day on november 6th of this year when president obama is re-elected because of

his policies, because of the fact that he has brought think country out of the second economic disaster since we faced since the great depression. >> chairman of the rnc, good morning. >> good morning. i don't know what else she's supposed to say, but, yeah, bold prediction i guess. >> i'm guessing you "the des moines regter." the case for the president. you know, you've got to admit that what seemed like a huge opening for the republicans does seem to have narrowed a little bit. look at the polls and in head-to-head matchups the president does very well and on like ability he still does very, very well. >> i guess i disagree with the premise, chris. but first of all if you look at voter registration in iowa, we're winning that battle 2-1. all of the gains made by the democratic party in 2008 they've been totally reversed. if you look at head-to-head

matchups, obviously those go up and down. many candidates are beating the president in head-to-head. but i hear what you're saying. keep in mind, our candidates are in iowa, they're in new hampshire, they're in south carolina, nevada, florida. we're in those particular states, but the poll that matters the most, you ask anyone involved in polling and politics, easy question to the american people which is, is our country on the right track or the wrong track? and poll after poll after poll about 70% of the american people are saying, we are on the wrong track. the likelihood of an incumbent president being able to win when 70% of the american people are saying we're on the wrong track and, by the way -- >> look at those same polls, if you look at the same polls the american people think that most of these major economic problems were inherited by the president from a republican administration and if you look at what's going on in washington, there are a

lot less happy with washington republicans with the house, with the congress, than they are with the president. so -- >> i give -- one of those things. >> it goes both ways. >> i give you on one of the issues, i give it to you people are tired of washington. my view happens to be -- i think most people would agree with me on both side of the aisle -- when people are upset with washington they tend to blame the most the president of the united states. the president, on the same polls isn't doing well when asked, has this president performed or fulfilled promises that he made to the american people when it comes to jobs and the economy and the debt and the deficit, and only 35% of the people say yes to that. 65% say this president has failed. so, on top of it i think the bigger issue that this president has is that people just, i think they're tired of the pageantry and the speeches and sort of the plasticized approach to washington that he has. ethink they're going to reject

it it. >> they'll hear more speeches between now and november from everybody. i've got some pictures up. >> he's good at that, good at giving speeches. >> newt gingrich is talking. i think -- it's hard to see who else is there. rick perry. and jon huntsman's in new hampshire. let me ask you about today's caucus. we've seen iowa a place that winnows the field. do you think there will be pressure for conservatives to get out of the race, get to a nomination quicker so there can be someone who can focus his attention solely on president obama? >> this is a typical situation. a crowded field four years ago and you know, barack obama and hillary went on for a long time. but it comes down to, i think in the end, money and whether or not candidates and continue. and in that sense, i think there's validity to your point. i think in the end what this will come down to, for us the republican national kcommittee

standpoint what do we need to do to make sure iowa's a red state in 2012. we want to win the battle for america which means defeating barack obama. who that candidate is, your guess is as good as mine. in the end we're going to provide the american people a clear alternative to a president who while good at giving speeches isn't good at following through on promises. >> thank you so much. >> thank you, chris. for the president, he's fresh off his hawaiian vacation and will host a live web chat with supporters in iowa tonight. tomorrow he hits the ground running, heading to battle ground ohio to talk about the economy. "the washington post" political columnist dana milbank is in des moines. good morning. >> good morning. >> i think it's fair to say the president has the best organized campaign of any candidate in iowa, eight campaign offices across the state. i think&t. surprises people to hear they're working to get people to the caucus tonight even though he's running unopposed, why? >> well, because it's always

about reminding his supporters that though it's not a contested election on the democratic side, take advantage of all of this attention here. look behind me, there's thousands of journalists here from all over the world broadcasting iowa to the world and more importantly to the nation. the president is piggy backing on all of the attention and making sure it's not just being delivered to mitt romney or rick santorum. >> is this a little bit of a test run for his organization to see just maybe their first chance to look at get out the vote organizing efforts? >> it is. and it also, you know, this now ends what has been a difficult phase for the president, because it's not clear what the alternative is here. so you know, like the polls you were just talking about with reince priebus, it shows the hypothetical matchups and now we may begin to get clarity, whether it's mitt romney or somebody else. but then it becomes the barack

obama or another candidate, and he can start really getting to work on that. so, yes, it's partially the field organization, which they'll be able to replicate but he's going to have somebody to run against fairly soon. >> let's talk a little bit about the messaging, too, because you know, we were listening to reince priebus saying that the president has failed but if you listen certainly to his campaign, they will tell you that he rescued the u.s. auto industry, that whether the republicans like it or not, he said he was going to get health insurance, it got done, the war on terror, bin laden, taking the troops out of iraq, overhauling the credit card industry. they have a lot of things to point to. there's a check list of president obama's accomplishments there. but how does he take that given the state of the economy right now? how are they going to package this? >> well, truth is, all of those things on the check list may be true, but if voters aren't feeling better that's not going to do a lot of good.

the good news for the president this may be a winter of discontent. next autumn things may be not entirely different but somewhat better. and also, as we're talking about you know how that the president's going to have an alternative to run against he begins to say, yes, maybe things haven't gone as well as we would have liked, but he's better than the other guy. this is the time when finally he's able to draw that distinction, it's no the barack obama against some unknown thing that might be better but, in fact, he can paint his opponent now as somebody who would make things worse. >> dana milbank, thanks so much. get some sleep over the next month or so. a few hours here and there. we want to mention, again, a couple of debates in new hampshire this weekend, including that one we told you about on "meet the press." and then it's new hampshire's primary, one week from today. south carolina in 18 days. and we finish the month in

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♪ isn't that cool? and that's pretty cool. ♪ you're putting me in front of pizza, a dangerous thing for me. especially pizza red pizza. this is 35 pizza branchs that i've been to in the state of iowa. >> rick santorum isn't kidding. a little slice of life from the campaign trail. the republican hopefuls have held 46 campaign events at iowa's iconic pizza ranch chain. santorum had 13 events, one location, named their chicken salad sandwich after him. or did he say 35? i think he said 35.

these connections with voters are a key ingredient in the iowa caucus recipe. we put msnbc's richard lui on the trail of other big numbers to watch for. good morning. >> now you're make me hungry. >> you want pizza. >> that's right, chris. long time coming but ten hours to go and the heat is on. so here's how to follow tonight's outcome by the numbers. we start with the number three, no candidate who has come in lower than third place has ever become president. it's the iowa winnowing process. 150, that's the average number of people at each caucus location, the intimate setting means next to you could be your boss, neighbor or pastor speaking or leading the balloting. 118,696, that's the number of people caucusing in 2008. that was a two-decade high. higher numbers could mean more independents which could help ron paul, lower numbers mean people are staying home. that also helps paul because his

supporters are passionate and will not stay home. another one, 50%, watch the entry polls. if evangelical turnout exceeds 50%, it could spell trouble for romney. his advisors feared that number in 2008, it happened and he lost. high evangelical turnout could also mean santorum surges. the number one, that's what candidates need to be in iowa or new hampshire. two bways to the white house historically for gop. first, win iowa, win south carolina, win the white house. second, win new hampshire, win south carolina, the white house. there is no third way. fin finally, 7:30, voters arrive 7:30 p.m. eastern, have refreshments. 8:00 p.m. eastern, party business starts. next volunteer speeches for each candidate, two to five minutes each. 8:45, secret balloting begins show of hand caucuses are discouraged. 9:30 p.m. eastern people start to leave.

three other caucus procedures start. within an hour results could trickle in. bonus number, 37. the temperature when caucuses kick off. for iowans ending a heated caucus season with a balmy day. >> in iowa terms, 37 is balmy. >> it is. >> in a couple of moments michele bachmann is expected to take the stage at rock the caucus, designed to get young people pumped up about tonight. ron paul will speak, too. i'm joined by iowa's secretary of state, matt schultz, in west des moines. good morning to you. we all know huge numbers of young people turned out for the president back in 2008, really all across the country. what happens your sense of the level of enthusiasm among young voters this year realistically? >> oh, i think they're very enthusiastic and that's what we're doing this event, to keep that enthusiasm going. you know, young voters generally don't turn out and we're hoping that with this event we can kind of start bringing light to that

process and get more young voters involved. >> nbc's entrance polling from 2008 showed 11% of republican caucusgoers were under the age of 30. can you do better than that tonight? >> oh, i -- i'm telling you, there's a lot of energy in the state and a lot of energy in the room. i think that we could. i mean, it's hard to say. it's all speculation. but there's a lot of energy in iowa right now. i think we could really do much better than last time. i think you may even see numbers above 120,000 caucusgoers this time. if that's the case, i think a lot of young people are getting involve zbrd let's hope they do. >> matt schultz, thank you so much. i want to bring in politico's mike allen and former rnc chairman and msnbc analyst michael steele. gentlemen, good morning to you. >> good morning. >> happy caucus. >> happy caucus day. mitt romney said something interesting this morning on "morning joe." i think you were both there. let's listen. the reason i'm running for

office is not for the 1%, as you point out the 1% are doing fine. this is a campaign about helping the middle class of america. >> michael, if this is a campaign about helping the middle class of america, can mitt romney win? >> oh, i think he can. a lot of ways simply because mitt has, over the years, shown his abilities to connect with people. he's governor of a state which requires, you know, that very inmate relationship with the voter because, as chief executive on a day to day basis you're dealing with comings and goings of people's lives and i think mitt romney can tell that story. a lot of the frustration you're seeing along rank and file republicans is that, up until now, he has not told that story. and so that's one of the ways they want to connect with him to see in that story line do we see our values represented? i think the more mitt is able to do that, beginning here in iowa, particularly if he has a successful night, the better off it's going to be for him longer

term going into south carolina and elsewhere. >> chris what we're seeing there -- >> go ahead, mike. >> i'm sorry. i was going to say, what we're seeing there is mitt romney already looking ahead to the general election because, of course the middle class, restoring it is very much barack obama's message. the president is going to be talking about that, including in the state of the union later this month. so, we can see mitt romney already thinking -- >> we're hearing from rick santorum, too. >> yeah. >> this blue collar, you know, fighter for the blue collar. >> well, i have always said, i know some folks kind of look cob eyed, the gop has been the party that is best situated to argue for and on behalf of blue collar america because of the idea of individualism and empowerment and ownership, and those are messages that in this economy will resonate with those looking to be self-empowered to get beyond these tough times. >> it leads to a fascinating argument. writing in the boston herald,

moderation can impell republicans to stay home rather than vote as we saw in the disastrous 2006 and 2008 elections. gop voters are angry at our elected officials for increasing spend, growing entitlements. they repaid them by refusing to vote. conventional wisdom is you can't go with a conservative candidate on the republican side because they won't win the general election but is that argument really turned around? might they do better? might they get more people enthusiastic with a more conservative nominee? >> that's a great point. voters may be outthinking themselves in "the des moines register" poll on sunday, when you drilled down into the numbers and looked why they chose particular candidates, electability is why mitt romney did well. tonight and in the general election, intensity, having people passionate for him. chris, yesterday i went to rallies for mitt romney, ron

paul, and for rick santorum, and what fascinated me about the ron paul rally was that it reminded me of what political excitement looks like. it was in a huge hotel ballroom. people were chanting his name. you don't get people chanting mitt romney's name out on the stump. >> that's the challenge, isn't it, mikele? that's the challenge. this enthusiasm gap. >> absolutely. michael hit it right on the head. that is the test coming out of these caucuses for mitt romney should he particularly have a successful night tonight. he's going to have to go to that base and say, i need you. we are in this fight together. let's rally around the common cause of unelecting barack obama and electing good principaled conservative leadership. that's what the basis waiting to hear. if he can make the argument, don't do the pie in the sky conversation, we have heard that before. we're looking to see the fight in the belly and whether or not there's a genuine fight you're willing for us rally around and then we'll see the whooping and

the cheering are excitement utterances of his name. >> mike alan, michael steele, thank you, good to see you. when the caucus results come in, one candidate will find himself in the back of the pack. the trail has claimed two high profile victims, of course, herman cain, tim pawlenty. who will be next to leave the race? head to facebook.com.

good morning, everybody. i'm thomas roberts. in the next hour of msnbc, continuing coverage of the super tuesday. all eyes on iowa from counties across the state, voting precincts and the delegates at stake. we have if covered for you. mitt romney leading the pack but can rick santorum or ron paul leap to top? or will iowans deal the country a wild card conservative pick? and then my interview with iowa congressman steve king, why he won't be a kingmaker with an endorsement for any of the candidates today. that, and much more, coming your way in the next hour.

>> thank you. we are hours away from start of the nation's first official presidential contest. to give you an idea of how wild this has been, for example, in late october, right around halloween, rick santorum had 5% in the "the des moines register" poll dead last. now he's poised to score an upset. this morning, he is feeling energized. >> i would say we strung this on shoestring but that's been ensuling shoestrings. money is coming in better than it's ever come in. we suspect we'll have resources to be able not to keep just in new hampshire but all the way through. >> ed schultz join me now. you think santorum's going to win. >> i think he's got it. >> why? >> one of most important people in iowa is the weatherman. anywhere in rural america where it's not a storm it's an older, high conservative turnout, that's good for santorum. low turnout is good for ron paul. enthusiasm is important. i understand all of that.

but the ground game of the social conservative, rick santorum, is just as good or better as the ground game that mike huckabee had in 2008, maybe even better. i believe that if you look at the last two in 2008 and back in 2000, 2004, bush of course had it, but 2000 and and 2008 the social conservatives collectively got more than 45% of the vote. the question now is, bachmann, we know she's going to fall, just how far is she going to fall? because there's a level of realism that's going to be realizes and voters that go out she can't win. >> she keeps saying i've got my ticket to south carolina. >> there's a lot of egos out there. not a lot of practicality there. the fact is, is that santorum, i think santorum is ahead of his polling numbers. i really do. >> don't you think it's fascinating here we have a campaign, 16 million has been spent in television advertising alone. we've never soon anything like it, yes this guy who said you

would be insulting a shoestring to say he was on a shoestring budget who had no money, did old fashioned retail politic is at the top. >> he's as good as president obama on retail politics. i've seen him on the stump. he's very impressive. he's in total command. >> very engaging. >> he is. >> comes across as a nice guy. >> affable, friendly but he has strong convictions. he has the ground game. and he has paid his dues county by county and that impresses iowans. >> the question raised about him even if he wins, the problem is he doesn't have a year to get ready for south carolina. you know, he's just got less than -- a couple of weeks here. he doesn't have time to go to 500 churches and you know diners. so how do you turn iowa into something more than that? >> look when he's going against. he's not going against a staunch conservative he's going against mitt romney. mitt romney is not strong in south carolina. if santorum wins tonight, and i think he will, his biggest play is going to be going against

newt gingrich in south carolina. and so it's a waterloo for gingrich as to whether he can stay alive or not in the campaign. but the resources are coming in to santorum, everything's lining up for him. timing is everything. and of course the weather's good. romney, look, romney got 30,000 votes, just over 30 how to in the last caucus. i think santorum's going to get 35,000, 36,000 and win it. >> you mentioned newt gingrich. he said earlier, downplaying expectations game, that he doesn't think he can win tonight and apparently some people on his staff got pretty upset with him about that because people go to these caucuses and they change their mind, their influence, they want to go with the winner. did he make a mistake trying to downplay expectations and telling people i'm not going to win? >> well, when you look at mitt romney, he's looking at the long haul. he's viewing this as a marathon and not a sprint. this is more of a sprint for santorum. but along the way, the culture

of it can build and i think that he can win iowa and he can do extremely well in south carolina. i just think that in the long haul romney has more resources right now. i think that ron paul has done good leg work in the caucus states, paralleling that of what barack obama dez inid in 2008. >> newt gingrich? >> people in congress, of course are talking about him, i don't see newt as a major player in the long haul. >> you talked about big egos. do you see anybody dropping out, say, before south carolina? >> no. i don't. i think that they're going to do everything they possibly can to keep their book tour alive. >> always good to see you. thanks for coming on. catch more of ed during our special coverage of the iowa caucuses 6:00 p.m. eastern here on your place for politics, msnbc. even the entertainment world

is keeping one eye on the iowa caucus. a couple of tweets today. the first from john lejgend. rick santorum gives off a distinct i'm running for civil council vibe. n. a bold, last minute tactic romney changed his first name from mitt to not.

iowa takes a lot of flak over the importance of its first in the nation caucus. so, a local iowa public television host decides he was going to have some fun and set the record straight on iowa's stereotypes, and, boy, this video is taking off on youtube. >> the first woman in america to become a lawyer was in iowa in 1869. you think we're all hillbillies. well, 4 out of 5 of us live in the cities, punk. farmers? you think farmerers are

hillbillies. sit down, son. one iowa farmer feeds 155 of you. do you like to eat? looks like it. you think farming is easy? the average iowa farm is larger than 300 football fields. take a fleet of tricked out machines and lp b[ bleep ] to m it work. how tough is your job in don't answer. you look like you can use a break. iowa has the sixth lowest unemployment in the nation. des moiness are rank the richest metro in the country and the second happiest. yes, you can have it all. player. stop worrying about what we know. spend a little more time on what you don't know. next time you fly over, give us a wave. we'll wave back. we're nice. >> i'm trying to figure out what my favorite line is. maybe it's you like to eat? looks like it. was that -- no, not a great imitation. anyway, very funny. he said he's happy. he's got a lot of response to that and people are taking it

the right way. anyway, wrapping up this special iowa caucus edition of "jansing and company," i'm chris jansing. tomorrow, results. thomas roberts continues msnbc's special coverage. he is next. you are watching msnbc, the place for politics. ♪ he was a 21st century global nomad ♪ ♪ home was an airport lounge and an ipad ♪ ♪ made sure his credit score did not go bad ♪ ♪ with a free-credit-score-dot-com ♪ ♪ app that he had ♪ downloaded it in the himalayas ♪ ♪ while meditating like a true playa ♪ ♪ now when he's surfing down in chile'a ♪ ♪ he can see when his score is in danger ♪ ♪ if you're a mobile type on the go ♪ ♪ i suggest you take a tip from my bro ♪ ♪ and download the app that lets you know ♪ ♪ at free-credit-score-dot-com now let's go. ♪ vo: offer applies with enrollment in freecreditscore.com™. we have to thank you for the advice on phillips' caplets. magnesium, right? you bet! phillips' caplets use magnesium. works more naturally than stimulant laxatives... for gentle relief of occasional constipation. can i get an autograph? [ female announcer ] live the regular life.

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hi, everybody. good morning i'm thomas roberts. it is decision day in iowa. republican voters on the fence, they're going put their cards on the table tonight and give one candidate the first big boost in the gop presidential primary. the numbers you need to know, 99 counties, over 1700 precincts and 25 delegates at stake, ready to be