marching towards a showdown with president obama. major players, first the presumed front-runner. >> i expect people to come after me. if i do well here, i'll have a target painted on me and i expect other folks to come after me. if i can't stand up to that i shouldn't be the nominee. >> against the romney campaign machine -- >> iowans want to get behind a candidate who will represent their values and i believe that i best represent their values. >> i should win the iowa caucuses because i'm the only candidate who could successfully debate obama in the fall. >> i may not be the best debater in the world but i gonety you i've got the best record. >> we are not looking for a chief executive officer for this country. we're looking for a commander in chief. >> then the wild card, texas congressman trying to shake up his party before hitting the road to new hampshire. >> tomorrow is a very important

day. small in numbers but a very big message. so you carry a lot of weight in this state. to send a message which way we're going. >> the stakes are high in the hawkeye state. after a dozen debates, seven different front-runners $16 million in ad spending and over 150 different campaign stops. tonight somebody may not be headed to new hampshire when all votes are counted. but let's put all of the factors together. turnout, timing, moan tum, expectations game, and look in the caucus crystal ball we do that with chuck todd, nbc political director host of "the daily rundown" here on msnbc. and we hope, we hope, that you have already eaten that chicken soup that savannah brought you earlier to battle off that cold. >> i have. we're lucky we have it it around here. >> let's get straight to this because we've seen iowa front-runners come and go, seven in fact set stage for us. how does this history fore shadow what we could see

happening tonight? >> we are lucky enough, mitt romney ran four years ago we have a great idea of potentially what he needs to do better at than he did four years ago, right here in iowa especially when facing a social conservative alternative. four years ago it was mike huckabee. this time it's rick santorum. so we dug into the archives here of the 2008 entrance poll. and i point this out, thomas, because you know what did the iowa caucusgoers four years ago, who what did they think was the most important quality in the presidential candidate they were looking for? four years ago the top two qualities ago, says what he believes and shares my value. nearly 80% of those who came, the top two qualities. the idea of election ibilty and experience accounted for 20% of the electorate. mitt romney beat huckabee four yearsing aon elect ability and experience. but lost to huckabee on values questions, shares my value, says what he believes and that to me is the key tonight.

not just how many people come but what do republicans come thinking? are they thinking about picking a nominee or thinking about going with what they're comfortable as iowa republicans. and that's the difference between santorum winning and losing. if this is a 70/30, values versus political calculation, that's not good for mitt romney. if it's more of a 50/50 split of these republicans coming in, that's good news for mitt romney. >> so, chuck, newt gingrich, he's been hammers in these attack ads by romney. ron paul came out swinging about romney this morning. let's show everybody this one. >> you're calling mitt romney a liar? >> well, you seem shocked by it. yes. i just think he ought to be honest with the american people and win as the real mitt romney, not try to invent a poll-driven, consultant-guided version that goes around with talking points. >> so there's been no really sustained group attack on mitt romney. so explain to all of us how is this going to get beyond iowa

and into south carolina, really going to be the super bowl of the nomination fight? >> well, look, south carolina has a history in its republican primaries, not just the presidential level, it's infamous from bush/mccain 2000 but a statewide level. every republican primary is personal, it's nasty and it's ugly. i have a political consultant friend who describes it as the balkans back in the mid '90s where's there's factions always fighting and find out one faction is for one condition they sign up for the other one just to launch bombs because it's a personal feudish-like thing. we could see a lot there. i tell you this, it is fascinating to me. mitt romney's been the front-runner all year long and nobody's put together that sustained attack. and i can tell you that the romney folks, if they're second place to rick santorum, they're not that upset. why? even though it does sort of exemplify a weakness in the base, which is -- which may

still be there, rick santorum -- they don't think he has the resources to go long. they don't think he can raise the money that it would take to truly make that sustained campaign against romney, strong enough to actually take the nomination away from him. they feared newt gingrich and rick perry because both had more of a national infrastructure, they thought, to actually maybe take the nomination away from mitt romney. the romney campaign does not believe that about rick santorum. >> "the daily rundown" host, chuck todd. you've been all over iowa for us. thank you, sir. ron paul's asking his supporters to arrive at caucuses early and his campaign is giving them rides to precincts. the candidate, due to appear at the rock the caucus event, addressing supports, many who are too young to vote. that combined with his controversial opinions raising questions about his political viability beyond iowa. gary howard press secretary for the ron paul campaign and joins us this morning. ron paul is second in the polls

and he is seen as this wild card and his rivals taking aim at his views on foreign policy. i want everyone to take a listen to this. >> is he more dangerous on iran than barack obama, in your view? >> in my view, yes, he is. i think he's to the left of barack obama. >> congressman paul would take every ship we have and bring it into port. he would abandon the seas to allow other countries to tell us what the rules are for transporting our goods. >> you can go with congressman paul, he's not electable at the end of the day, be real about it. >> the perception would be that he's outlandish, even scary in his views by some. is ron paul too extreme to win in iowa? >> well, i just say to those folks, the majority of american people agree with dr. paul on foreign policy. they don't want our troops to be stretched all over the globe. they don't want us to be playing

policeman of the world. they want our troops to come home. i think dr. paul is right along with the majority of american people on this. >> let's talk about what dr. paul has said. this is i man who came out against the killing of osama bin laden, he suggested that the u.s. brought 9/11 on to itself, he wants to eliminate the federal reserve who doesn't want to sank iran. how do these viewpoints jive with the republican base, let alone, as you're talking about, mainstream america? >> well, just like i just mentioned, dr. paul wants strong national defense, most americans agree with him. most americans don't want to be stretched across the globe, troops in foreign lands fighting wars that are undeclared, unconstitutional. i mean, this is backed um by poll numbers and it's backed up by the poll numbers in iowa. people agree with dr. paul. i can say those views seem to be mainstream to me, if most people agree with him. >> he was on the trail yesterday. his son rand was by his side.

given the slide in the daily polls, momentum shifting to rick santorum, do you think dr. paul regrets spending the weekend away from iowa? he spent 36 hours with family at home. >> well, this is what he had to do for family. it's a family obligation. people care about family. dr. paul cares deeply about his family, likes to spend holidays, charisma and new year's with his family. if people can't understand that, i don't know what's wrong. >> looking beyond iowa, ron paul had something pretty interesting to say on "night line." >> when you lay your head down on the pillow at night, do you see yourself in the oval office? >> not really but i think it's a possibility. sometimes i kid about it, i say that's the risk i take. >> okay. is that the kind of thing where you be careful what you wish for because it just may come true if a lot of people would be left scratching their head after seeing that, he's not in it to win it. if he done win in iowa --

>> he's -- >> is his goal to be a political king make. >> no, dr. paul is in it to win it. he's in it to win the whole thing. i believe the question, the context of that, was does he dream about being president? a lot of people dream about being president who shouldn't be president, a lot of people whoo have political ambitions, dr. paul is in to be president to make a change in america. he's not in it for personal or power gain. he's in it for america and the american citizens. >> gary, thanks for joining me today. pass along and ask you to stay tuned, we'll talk with rick perry's campaign about his chances for tonight. let's talk about the weather, though. because sunny skies and relatively warmer temperatures in the 30s and the 40s, forecast around the state of iowa and that's a factor expected to bode well for mitt romney, as voters hit the polls. but how will weather affect voter turnout? as we take a peek back in history, 2008, the gop turnout

in iowa was a record 119,000 people. the weather then was hovering somewhere in the 30s. for compareson sake, though, last night's rose bowl drew a crowd of more than 91,000 people. nearly al of the republican presidential conditions are campaigning throughout iowa today. president obama just back from hawaii, also making his presence known there. 310 days until the presidential election. but it's already game on. we've got much more iowa caucus coverage coming your way. make sure to stick around for our prime time coverage, it starts at 6:00 eastern. you're watching msnbc, the place for politics. [ whistle blows ] oh!

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into if it's 16 years to talk her into marrying me, however months we need to do talk americans into our vision, that's what we're going to do. >> he went on the "today" show, after being inaugurated and said that if he's not able to turn around the economy in three years, he'd be looking at a one-term proposition. i'm here to collect. he's out. >> small sampling of the gop hopefuls making some final pitches, as the hours tick down to tonight's republican caucus. but there are seven major candidates competing in iowa today. six republicans, and president barack obama who will address the democratic caucuses but live feed tonight. the president, freshly back from hawaii, warming up for the general election fight as the gop unleashes new attack ads on the president today. take a look.

>> years from now you'll be able to look back with pride and say that this was the moment when it all began. >> joinings now, former ohio governor, ted strickland and republican communications strategist, j.p.frare. thanks for joining me. j.p., the new gop ad uses the president's talent for addressing crowds against him literally alleging that he made quite a few promises to america that he didn't keep. what's your take on the republicans starting the general election season before even having a nominee or is the strategy to make obama his own worst enemy? the discussion centering on the nomination debate is who is best able to take on the president. and as those people are making the cases it's important to keep in mind what they are running against, a frez who has taken every community to get out in front of every hallmark piece of legislation he's pushed through,

talking about his fail record. mitt romney a former governor of massachusetts has done a lot of things that are of course, you know, not pleasing to a lot of republicans, but on the other hand, he does have a record. and a record that you know he's been more or less proud of. and newt gingrich and other candidates as well. so i think it's important to keep in mind who they're running against, what this nomination fight is about, which is making sure that the incumbent doesn't stay in place. >> governor strickland, tomorrow the president is making his 17th visit to your state, ohio, to talk about the economy. but a new quinnipiac poll shows majority of ohio would favor a republican nominee over obama. romney and gingrich both with 43% to obama's 42. so ohio went to obama in 2008. in your estimation how critical is it to him this time snarnd. >> well i think president obama will win ohio again. he saved the auto industry, that's krits dool ohio.

he kept us from sliding into a deep depression. he is pushing jobs and job creation while his opponents are fighting among themselves. you know, i agree with newt gingrich when he said about mr. romney, if someone will lie to you to become president, he'll lie to you after he becomes president. neither of these candidates, gingrich or romney or any of the others, quite frankly, have been able to get more than 25% support from their own base. and so it's going to be a long campaign. ohio will be a critical part of that campaign, but i think president obama will win ohio again and he'll do so because he is focusing on job creation while the others are pursuing policies that literally brought us to the condition that we face today. >> mitt romney has been relentless against the president and on the "today" show earlier, savannah asked him if he has what it takes to be commander in

chief. take a listen to this. >> working folk who are struggling to remain in their homes -- >> relatively low approve numbers. >> struggling to get back to work. >> things are not going -- >> we played the wrong sound. do we have the right clip for everybody? >> talking about president obama, it seems to me that the primary argument you make against him is that he lacked experience when he took office. in terms of national security experience, what would you cite to say that you are prepared to be commander in chief? >> foreign policy standpoint i've worked in multiple countries around the world competing with american businesses to make them more successful. >> how is that national security experience? >> let me continue. in addition, i borked ee works olympics and i negotiated with people around the world. i have not led the department of defense. no one is commander in chief until they're commander in chief. >> j.p., can romney credibly keep attacking the president on

foreign policy, given his own lack of experience? should he stick to the economy? >> foreign policy involves things other than national security. for example, when governor of a state, as governor strickland knows you, lead trade delegations. you entertain trade delegations. the experience that governor romney cited is also important. we need to keep in mind when talking about records, when talking about lying to the american people, you know, governor romney had hit it on the head, that president obama made a bunch of promises, a bunch of speeches where he said he would do something, he wasn't able to fulfill it and now talking about a second term to get those things done and takes a big problem for him. >> is the governor, former governor of massachusetts, making a mistake trying to go after president obama on foreign policy as opposed to highlighting failures in the economy? >> i think so. i mean, president obama led the effort to kill osama bin laden. our greatest enemy.

he was instrumental in the effort to get rid of the leader of libya who had killed our citizens. he has a very, very stellar foreign policy report. he is a strong supporter of israel. he has improved our standing in the eyes of people around the world. and so i think president obama's foreign policy has been a success and i think those who would accuse him of being a weak leader in terms of national security in foreign policy simply are not being honest with this president's really stellar record when it comes to protecting our country, improving our standing in the world, and fighting despotism around the world. >> ted strickland, j.p. thank

you. >> i want to show everybody live pictures from des moines from a rock the caucus event. a chance to teach young iowa voters about how it all works. the iowa caucus process. they're going to hear from rick santorum coming up later in this hour, after it gets going. plus, the former senator is all the craze in iowa right now. so are his now famous v-neck sweaters. you see one right there. we'll talk more about it. [ male announcer ] cranberry juice? wake up!

♪ that's good morning, veggie style. hmmm the iowa caucus process.

♪ if you want to destroy my sweater ♪ >> welcome back, everybody. polls have shown rick santorum surging in iowa. it's not just santorum getting

attention. it's also his now familiar v-neck sleeveless sweaters. spotted at more campaign event wearing the sweater vest, gray, navy, red. the sweater vests have inspired their own twitter feed and a website, fearricksvests.com. even a music video, "sleeves slow me down." i think the vests are fine. i'm just telling you. i wear them myself. voting totals not the only numbers to keep your eyes on the eye caucuses. a few other key figures can tell us more about the results and the candidates moving forward. we're going to check in with msnbc's richard lui to breck it all down. hopefully you wear a sweater vest sometimes. >> i just donates -- >> i feel bad. >> i donated two -- >> to me, my desk? >> no, over the holidays. good morning. let's talk about why the caucus is important. how to track the outcome. we've got key numbers to watch along the way.

the number three, no candidate who has come in lower than third place has ever become president. it's the iowa winnowing process. 30, if romney gets 30% in entry polls he's smiling. he's never broken the 20s in iowa go. polls. to date, 30,000 important to romney. only 24,000 votes in 2008 after spending huge money and time. 50%, if entry polls show evangelical turnout exceeds 50%, it could spell trouble for romney. advisers feared that number in 2008. it happened. and he lost. high evangelical turnout could also mean santorum shines tonight. the number one, that's what candidates need to be in iowa or new hampshire. there are two ways to the white house. for gop candidates, first way, win iowa, win south carolina, you win the white house. second way, win new hampshire, win south carolina, win the white house. there is no third way. finally, 7:30, voters arrive at

7:30 p.m. eastern and have refreshments, a doughnut or two. 8:00 p.m. eastern, party business and speeches for each candidate, two to five minutes each. 8:45 p.m., secret balloting begins, a show of hand caucuses are discouraged now. 9:30 p.m. eastern, people start to leave. within an hour results trickle in. 150, the average number of people at each caucus location. but it's not the numbers that could confuse iowans along the way. imagine your boss or neighbor as precinct captain and getting to know your politics along the way. that's the way it is. >> it's fascinating stuff. we'll know more been 10:00. we encourage everybody to keep it locked it into msnbc. steve king is coveted endorsement but he's not giving one. ahead of the caucuses, he explains why he just can't seem to get behind one of the gop candidates. and it speaks volumes why this race is so fluid. plus, governor rick perry used to be a front-runner, now

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isn't that cool? and that's pretty cool. ♪ good morning, everybody. welcome back. one thing missing from this edition of the iowa caucuses, big-time endorsements from big figures in iowa politics. conservative leaders from inside and outside of the beltway haven't settled on a single candidate, hoping the best bet to beat barack obama emerges from the precincts. i spoke with one of the kingmakers earlier. >> iowa congressman steve king, a member of tea party caucus, someone who has spent quality time with candidates in the caucus this season but he joins other hawkeye state lawmakers in staying on the 2012 sidelines. congressman king, thanks for making time. >> thanks a lot for having me on this morning. thanks for covering this in iowa. >> just to remain everybody, last time around you endorses

fred thompson. any candidate that you feel that deserves your support because a lot of people see you as being inspired by fred thompson last time around. why don't they look for your endorsement this time? >> well, i planned all along that i would make an endorsement, starting clear back last january 6th, when we did our first meetings to set up some of the things that have to do with caucus in the early states and, as we moved forward, i thought september, october would be a good time, it became november, december, now it's january. and yesterday afternoon i finally came to a conclusion i just don't have that deep conviction and without that, it's inappropriate for me to make a recommendation to iowans. so i'm surprised that it came to this, i never anticipated, it wasn't my intent at all. i like a lot of the candidates and that's some of the difficulty is the balance between them, it's not one at this point that has emerged to the point i think they're the

one -- i need the one who has made the shining city on the hill speech enough times that they've convinced americans that they see what america needs to look like a generation from now, how to get out of the financial debacle isn't just enough to lay out the plan but sell to to the american people so they're ready to make the sacrifice to get us back to paying down our national debt. i just got to that point where i thought there's more to be done yet and let's see if we can go on to the other states and shape some of the policy and maybe it will still emerge so we can save our country. >> some people might think that your silence of not giving an endorsement, literally a kingmaker, is deafening on this. michele bachmann born in iowa, part of the tea party caucus as its leader. do you think, though, that you being silent on this endorsement is sending a message because a lot of people are wondering how this process is being controlled, whether it's tea party controlled, whether it's controlled by the evangelical christians, or the regular

die-hard goppers, what do you say to that? >> well, it's pretty hard to put iowans into a category. yes, sir, evangelical voters, many of them also focus on the fiscal issues, we have tea party people, and from my standpoint, i think very fortunate to look at this political issues all the way across the full spectrum. it's one of the reasons i supported fred thompson, he's a full spectrum conservative. no, michele bachmann, she and i see the world the same way and she is -- she and i agree on issue after issue after issue, i like her a lot personally and i hope she has a great day today. i just wasn't ready to make that endorsement. and it comes down to conviction. it's something you can't put it there, if you do, you try to, you can't look yourself in the mirror afterwards. i've got to have my private opinions about when it becomes a public recommendation that's a different story. i'm surprised that it came to

this and i wish it was another way but i can't be anything other than honest with iowans and the american people. >> mitt romney is leading in iowa in the polls. earlier this morning, though, you said that speaker boehner is a conservative that doesn't want to confront president obama when it comes to a showdown. do you think that mitt romney, who has held moderate view points over his career, might be susceptible to abandoning conservative principles to make deals if he gets to washington? >> well, i think, first, if mitt romney becomes the president, that will solve a lot of that difficulty of not wanting to confront the president. then i would think john boehner and mitt romney or whoever the president is will come together on many of the same policies necessary to fix the economic situation that we're in. >> do you think that mitt romney would make deals with democrats? >> you know, he had to do that as governor of massachusetts. 85% of the legislature there were democrats when he was governor. any president will do that to get his agenda passed.

i'd look at mitt romney's agenda and among them are the prerepea dodd/frank, that's legislation that michele bachmann introduced privatizing, many of those things will be bold positions on the part of mitt romney that he would not have to cut deals with democrats. votes would be there from the republicans. but there will be time is in president makes a deal with democrats to get his agenda across. >> that was iowa republican congressman steve king. i want to pass along, congressman king is appearing this hour with has colleague, michele bachmann in iowa. another underdog who wants to be on top. newt gingrich getting in some last licks before caucusgoer have their say. he called mitt romney a liar this morning. did you see this one? >> are you calling mitt romney a lier? >> yes. it's like his pretense that he's a conservative. here's a massachusetts moderate who has tax-paid abortions in romney care, puts planned parenthood in romney care, raises hundreds of millions of

dollars on taxes of businesses appoints liberal judges to apiece democrats and wants the rest of us to believe he's a conservative. >> when andrea mitchell tried to get a response from romney, the front-runner remains mum. >> governor, newt gingrich called you a liar today. what do you say about that? >> we're not taking questions. >> governor, is that the way to campaign? calling you a lier? >> we're not taking questions. >> how are you? good to see you. >> nbc campaign inbed alex mo with the gingrich campaign. does newt gingrich think that these swings at mitt romney are going to boost his chances, at least come out guns blazing today, this morning? >> well, speaker geneva hopes iowans will see through the negative ads that mitt romney and the other candidates have been running against him in the state and he believes that those ads have been dishonest and the iowans will vote for him tonight. he's had one event this morning.

we have another one later on today. he's been continuing to push his message that he's like ronald reagan and has been very critical of president obama more so than his gop competitors. so it will be interesting to see what pitch he'll make when he's caucusing in waterloo and gingrich has been more enthusiastic the past couple of days he was sick earlier in the week. he's back to his normal self. they were watching a movie on the bus. i hope tonight gingrich will have a strong showing and eventually will be the republican nominee, despite the negative ads that romney and other competitors have been running. >> alex moe, thanks so much. i want to point out, something about the ad money that's being spend. it turns out that one of the superpacks supporting mitt romney outspent mitt romney's own campaign, 2-1 in iowa. much of the cash going to ads slamming newt gingrich. since skyrockets into the public consciousness last

august, rick perry's reception in the hawkeye state has chilled pretty considerable. the one-time dark horse for the gop nomination has taken a significant slide in the polls, after a series of embarrassing gaffes on the campaign trail. a bottom tier finish is likely for the texas republican, which could mean an end to his bid for the white house. but he's still making a last-minute push there, attacking rick santorum in this latest ad. >> which republican running for president voted for the bridge to nowhere earmark? yes, suzi from des moines. >> rick santorum? >> correct. santorum voted for the bridge to nowhere and a highway bill full of pork. >> just a short time ago rick perry spoke to voters in des moines about his plan to, quote, take america back. >> this election is about stopping a president of the united states and his administration that is abusing the constitution of this country, that is putting america on a track to bankruptcy and,

folks, we are going to take america back. that's what this is. >> i'm joined by ken blackwell, former ohio secretary sof staof vice chairman of the rnc's platform committee. nice to have you with us. iowa do or die for rick perry? >> i don't think so. i think rick will have a good showing tonight and i think he'll move on to south carolina. he'll be at the debates in new hampshire but he's going to put emphasis, organizational emphasis, on south carolina and florida. look, i think there's a great chance that tonight you're going to have four, perhaps five, candidates that are bunched up together. i don't think there's going to be a runaway winner or two. but there will be an interesting sorting out and i think think perhaps the last place finisher will consider packing it up. but i don't expect that to be rick perry. >> as you point out about south carolina for the perry team they

are plan events for south carolina tomorrow. can south carolina reboot his campaign if he does particularly badly in iowa? >> well, again, i don't anticipate him doing badly in iowa but i do think that south carolina and florida are going to be key states for rick perry. i think there will be rick perry-friendly states and he's well organized in both of those states. that's the other thing about iowa that i think people are underestimating. there are only going to be 130,000 people in the caucuses tonight. rick perry not only has a message of economic growth, he has a message that really is pushed by an organization. so he has the organizational muscle not only to do well here, but to go forward in some of the other battle ground state and, lastly, he has the money. and i think that's going to be

substantial. >> even with that being say he's in the single digits in iowa. you bring up debates between now and new hampshire, there are just two left. he is his own worst enemy when it comes to debates telling everybody himself that he's just not good at him. what does he expect to gain by continue organize what is there to gain by putting himself out there? >> he expects to do better and that's what has happened. he stumbled out of the gate but he's been strong in his last several debates. i think most political observers and experts and pundits agree to that. he's only going to get better. so that's why he hangs in there. debating is part of it but it's also a matter of message, making sure that people understand you bring the experience set. he has done what a lot of these other candidates are talking about. he leads the 13 largest economy in the world. >> so, ken -- >> economic growth and job

creation. >> should americans expect, though, these people raised to this level, elevated to this level are already at their best because they're about to be president of the united states, maybe. so do you think that watching them get better along the way is something they should have done, you know -- this isn't the time for that. they need to be at their best. >> he's at his best when it comes to producing jobs. he he's at his best when it comes to protecting our border that is in his state. he's at his best when it comes to talking about those core traditional values that have made america exceptional. i think that's why we're here in iowa and we're going to be competing in other states, is to demonstrate that this guy is at the top of his game in all of those crucial areas and, yes, he has an upward trajectory when it comes to the debate stage. he has -- i've done a lot of

talking -- he's done more doing. now being able to debate and ho hold is own is part of the contest and we've seen him get progressively bet. >> nice to have you on this morning. thank you. >> good to be with you. everything that you need to know about the iowa caucuses from one of the best former des moines register reporter, david yepson, king of the kaushgs, will join me. plus, facing the odds. mitt romney's chance of winning the republican nomination. and president obama's chance of getting another four years in the white house. an accident doesn't have to slow you down. with better car replacement, if your car is totaled, we give you the money for a car one model year newer. liberty mutual auto insurance.

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>> welcome back to msnbc. wanted to take you to the rock the caucus event taking place in west valley high school's gymnasium in des moines. rick santorum speaking to the crowd. let's listen. i want to introduce you them and thank you for welcoming us here to valley high school. i know that this is a big moment. all of you are going to have an opportunity to be able to vote in the caucuses tonight and obviously i encourage you to do so. this is an important moment for our country. we're at a critical path. every generation, every generation of leaders has an obligation to be able to pass on to the next generation something greater. i was very fortunate. we -- i was raised in a family that was an immigrant family. my father and my grandfather were immigrants to this country. my dad came when he was all of 7 years of age. and it was instilled in me the greatness of our country, the foundational freedoms. my grant father left, in fact, he left my father and the rest

of the family behind when in 1925 during mu muss leaney's re italy and he was not a fan of fascism and he wanted to live in a country that believed in him, in free people in opportunity that any person could rise in society if they worked hard, got a good education, and played by the rules. that's what america always stood for. that bottom up, entrepreneurial, individual spirit based upon strong families that molded and instilled values that were important for you to be success like hard work, honesty and integrity. that is the real greatness of america. i would make the argument that there's a lot of people in america today, unfortunately some in the white house, who don't believe that anymore who don't believe that america's a great country because we are great, because we have great

people who build great things from the bottom up but that america could be better if we built things from the top down. that may be the way the way oth countries have done it. in fact, it is, but a lot of people who are in this country left those countries, because like my grandfather, they wanted a country that believed in him. he diplomat get that kidn't get education. he was a coal miner pep worked in the coal mines until he was 72 years old. he thought if he could do his part, make the sacrifices that were necessary, that some day his son and daughter would be able to go to college some day, which fortunately they were able to go. now here his grandson is standing and running for president of the united states. that is a great country. because we believe in free people and the ability to build something from the bottom up. you have a very tough choice to make. there are a lot of great

candidates who are going to be up, and many have spoken already. but you need to focus in on who is that candidate who has the vision for america, that's going to believe in the founding principles of our country and build this country, well, like our founders did and believing in those freedoms that i've described. you know -- >> we've been listening to rick santorum at the rock the caucus event taking place at west valley high school gymnasium in des moines. other presidential hopefuls making this irway through that gym. we'll check in with kelly o'donnell, live at that rally. i understand in the last hour at the end of the last hour, michele bachmann also spoke to the kids there, correct? >> reporter: yes. we're getting one of those moments where you've got candidate who is are all coming through, trying to get their message out, especially to young voters. one thing that's important to note, if they are at age 18 by november, they can participate. we've seen hands go up in this

room of quite a number of young people who say they will participate as republicans in tonight's caucus. earlier today michele bachmann was here. this is what she had to say to this group. >> this is your chance to succeed and have your say. go out tonight, rock the vote, take your country back. it's your opportunity. i believe in you. god bless you, you guys. go out and vote tonight. thank you, everybody. >> reporter: and mitt romney's, four of his five sons were here talking to the crowd a short time ago, as we've been hearing rick santorum who has gotten so much attention now, is addressing the group. this is one of those moments where you can see in kind of a small setting what the energy is, what the message is, all in one place, just hours to go before people actually start making their own choices. thomas? >> nbc's kelly o'donnell, thanks so mg. coming up at 12:00 there today, congressman ron paul is expected to speak to the crowd as well, and then the kids will have their own mock caucus

coming up at 12:10. today's real caucus in iowa is the first step to the nomination. three nominating states help narrow down the ranks. why iowa? big questions joining us this morning is david yepsen, a political writer for "the des moines register" for over 30 years, director of paul simon institute. i want to get to it because iowans get ready to make their pick, even apparent front-runner isn't sure what's going to happen. seeing mitt romney on "morning joe" earlier today. >> mitt, things going well right now. yesterday you were confident enough to tell your audience that you were going to win iowa. what do you see out there that you like? >> i don't think i quite said that, but -- >> you said, i'm going to win this thing going away. >> that's what i said. >> if all goes well, i hope i become the nominee. >> what do you think iowans are

looking for in the final hours? >> well, i think republican activists are looking for a couple things. they're looking for a good conservative that they agree with and they're also looking for one who can get elected. you know, some of them -- there is some dissatisfaction among some activists but other activist who is i talked to are struggling with this decision because they like all the candidates. you know, the purpose of the exercise is to nominate a presidential candidate who can beat barack obama. so, i think electability is really part of this. and a lot -- one of the reasons for a lot of this indecision isn't indecision at all. they want a chance to meet tonight to talk to their neighbors. it's a great grass roots exercise. they're sitting around, talking with their friends and neighbors about who's going to win, who's a good republican and who isn't. >> who do you think, though, when we talk about this is really going to carry the nomination this time around, whether iowa depicts that person or not. who do you think really is going to take it?

>> well, right now have you to say mitt romney is a front-runner for the nomination. now, you know, the voters haven't spoken yet. anywhere in the country. so, we'll have to wait and see what they say about it. >> david yepsen, thank you for your time. we'll be seeing what happens when everyone in iowa goes to the caucuses tonight. we appreciate your time and experience today. thank you. >> thank you . >> if you're in invested in iowa to the point you would lay money down on a winner, we can give you odds. mitt romney gets 0.9% odds to win the state with 79.8% winning party nomination. if you're putting on incumbent, president obama gets 51.4% re-election off his lows of last fall. that will do it for me this hour. i'll see you back here tomorrow at 11 a.m. eastern time. until then you can follow me on twitter @thomasaroberts. "now with alex wagner" comes your way next.

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seven, that is the number of possible outcomes of tonight's iowa caucuses meaning who knows what will happen. tuesday, january 3rd and this is "now." joining me today in iowa, msnbc political analyst and former chair of the rnc, michael steele. here on set, steve of salon.com, s.e. is a columnist with the new york "daily news." the iowa caucus is just eight hours away and these are the closing arguments. >> i don't think i'm going to win. whatever i do tomorrow night will be a victory.