>> i'm not going to believe any set of such numbers this regime puts out this year. i'm not going to believe the unemployment number. i don't believe this general motors number. >> halftime in america. i think we need to finish the half one more term. clint eastwood, i might not buy a chrysler, but i'm going to go buy some old dvds of your movies. thanks for watching. i'm al sharpton. obama says i deserve a second term. let's play "hardball." >> good evening. i'm chris matthews in washington. leading off tonight, an oh, oh, moment for mitt. what happens to a candidate when he says, i'm not concerned about the very poor? when he accepts the endorsement of donald trump, the nation's leading birther? when he tries to poo-poo another

strong jobs report? what happens if you are mitt romney is that you find yourself six points behind a newly confident president obama in an abc/"washington post" poll. the president says he deserves a second term. maybe people are beginning to agree. mitt isn't going to get any help from newt gingrich who is still pledging to go all the way to the convention. leave it to his former colleague and dick armey to say newt is taking a second rate campaign and turning it into a first rate vendetta. plus our colleague tom brokaw often says politics is subject to ufos, unforeseen occurrences. this year's presidential wild card may be in the middle east where syria, iran and egypt all have the potential to scramble the election in ways we can't predict. if you thought clint eastwood halftime in america ad looked like a pro-obama ad, you aren't the only one. >> this country can't be knocked out with one punch. we get right back up again. and when we, do the world is going to hear the roar of our engines. yeah.

it's halftime, america. and our second half is about to begin. >> at least one republican said chrysler was saying thank you for the bailout. karl rove says he was offended. well, the white house was thrilled. let me finish with president obama's re-election campaign. it's not going to be about who he is running against but how he's doing. let's start with president obama saying he deserves a second term. bob shrum and -- it's got the president at 50% approval. 46% disapproval. how do you as a skilled reader of such numbers view that number. 50% for the president. back up to basically a high point for him in recent months, back up to where he was when he capture -- actually killed bin laden. what do you think, 50%. what does that tell you?

>> what counts here is the direction. and the direction is moving up for him. i think, you know, his toughest opponent up till now has been the economy. that's turning. if it continues to turn, he'll be in much stronger shape. he's also got the right tone in talking about it. he's optimistic but not triumphal. he's not making the mistake that george w. bush made in 1992 when the recession he said was over. technically it was. but he sounded complacent. like ronald reagan in 1984, he's drawing a dividing line. it's a different dividing line. he's saying i stand for fairness. i'm going to fight for prosperity, for the middle class, for ordinary americans. that's my cause. and, quite frankly, that's a great push-uf against mitt romney. >> dwhoot you mawhat do you mak? half of the country says they approve of this guy. >> with unemployment still high, even though it's ticked down, a lot of people have given up looking for work. 50% is really pretty good given the status of the economy. we've been talking about this since his job speech in

september. the white house came up with an idea, came up with a campaign on what they could do to convince americans that the president cared about the number one issue. that is jobs. that he's willing to fight for it and that he'd take it to the republicans. he's done all those three and all that time period, his numbers have crept up pretty slowly and gradually but in the right direction. as you said about mitt romney, his numbers have come down because ultimately he's being compared not just against the economy but also -- >> i agree. what's changed for the prrkts the -- president, these numbers reflect the economy. it's why the numbers have changed. not just why the job situation has gotten better and how that's affected the president. this president has changed gears. since september it was a great piece about gene sperling in the paper. he's focused on jobs. not trying to compete with the republicans on debt reduction where he never gets anywhere, but focus on something they don't want to talk about, jobs. and as he began to talk about jobs, serendipitously, the job

number has gotten better. is it the fact of all three? he's improved the morale and he's focused on the right top chick is jobs. not compete with the republicans on who is the most fiscally responsible. >> yeah, i think you're right. i think there's no question that saying jobs, jobs, jobs, saying it over and over again has helped him. but it's helped him because the job situation is actually getting better. he's also created a narrative here. and the narrative is that he's the guy who is trying to stand up for people who are out of work. he's the guy trying to stand up for hard-working americans. when he got these recovery numbers the other day, he did a smart thing. he went out. he struck that kind of optimistic but tempered tone. we've done a lot. we have a lot more to do. and then he said, don't let congress muck it up. he's got a narrative that's powerful. at the same time that mitt romney is running out of a narrative. if you listen to romney's victory speech in nevada the other night, he sounded deeply

pessimistic. pessimism doesn't usually work, as you both know in american politics. >> especially when you are running up against the numbers. let's look at the president's approval number here reflected in the latest head-to-head with romney. and also just to be fair with newt. here he is with romney. abc/"washington post" poll, 51/45. six-point spread for the president. pretty strong. newt gingrich, much stronger, nine-point spread. actually 11-point spread there. david corn. let's talk about the guy that's the front-runner now. six points. >> barack obama is making gains against blue collar, noneducated workers which were one of his weakest demographics. michigan, wisconsin, ohio. if you look at recent polls, he's creeping up again, as bob says, going in the right direction. that's where a lot of this pick-up is. i think it's directly attributed in footer hpart to how mitt rom coming across as newt's side

kick. he's talking about jobs. i think the contrast is getting sharp. >> in an interview last night with matt lauer before the super bowl, president obama made this case for re-election while addressing the budget concern of many voters. the biggest concern of many voters, the economy. >> i deserve a second term, but we're not done. look. when you and i sat down, we were losing 750,000 jobs a month. in fact, we had found out just a few days before we sat down we had lost that month 750,000 jobs. now we're creating 250,000. we've made progress, and the key right now is to make sure we don't start turning in a new direction that could throw that progress off. >> you know, i'm looking at his polling numbers. they are positive for the president. i want you to get deeper on this. it looks to me like the president is hedging the bet here. he reads the numbers from goldman and from cbo. unless congress gets its act

together and keeps the cut going in the payroll tax, makes some adjustment downward -- or keeps the bush tax cuts for the middle class alive, don't cancel those. plays ball with him a little bit, they could screw it up themselves. he used the phrase congress can muck things up. sure if the employment rate keeps going down below 8.3, he's going to get re-elected. if it goes the other direction, does he need to have a hedge? >> he has a plan b. and his plan b is to say, don't muck it up. to put the republicans in a very difficult position. if they are seen to be blocking the payroll tax cut renewal if they're seen to be blocking the renewal of unemployment composition. if they seem to be rooting for recession and downturn which by the way is almost how romney sounded the other night, they'll pay a price. and i think republicans -- >> how did he do that? you think he was rooting for the economy to go down? did you hear that? >> no, i -- look. the first good jobs number comes in a long time.

spectacularly good jobs numbers that had very few things in them that you could quarrel with and he suddenly starts talking about the under employed. obviously, we have a problem of under employed people. he himself when he ran bain and company used to get people out of full-time jobs and into part-time jobs. he knows about that. >> you never miss a chance, do you? you never miss a chance to put the fork in. i love this question. it provided an interesting nug net how damaging the republican race has been so far. 52% said the more they hear and have heard about mitt romney, the less they like him. 60% said the same thing about his traveling partner gingrich. david? they don't like this debate that's been going on. >> politics is einsteinian. it's relative. and if -- barack obama was running against the republican with no name and no positions, he probably would lose given the economy. but these guys, mitt romney and newt gingrich, the more people see of them, and this is what we've seen from the beginning of

this campaign. perry, michele bachmann. >> what is happening in this campaign that makes people think -- what's happened in this campaign? we watch it every night and cover all the caucuses and primaries here relentlessly. what have you seen that the average middle of the road voter that's opened to this election has not liked about romney? >> he's not been able to talk about his own money, his own taxes. he talks -- you watch those speeches. the speeches he gave in florida after winning the big victory was at vapid as it gets. he didn't mention one idea, one policy about moving the country forward. i think people are seeing perhaps a bit of an empty suit. a rich guy out of touch like the cliche goes. he's done nothing to beat back that obvious image. and that's kind of what's been stunning. newt just looks mean. >> we've got a couple of things to clash here. i'm going to talk about this at the end of the show. i see problems down the road that have nothing to do with romney but the economy. bob shrum, the president only gets 44% approval on the economy, handling the economy. only 43% on jobs. it seems to me those remain his

vulnerabilities, if you are running against him. >> sure. but they're coming up. those numbers are coming up, too. and the real problem that romney has is he comes across as cold and callous and indifferent. he's a gaffe machine. at least once a week he provides a new incident that makes him the guy who is not going to fight for ordinary people on the economy, who is not going to fight for jobs. so i think when you look at this whole picture, it's emerging in a very good shape for the president. in a way that a lot of us wouldn't have predicted necessarily. first, the economy may get better. it may very well be getting better. we're not going to change horses in the middle of a recovery. and secondly, in terms of the contrast with the republicans and with romney, the president, i think, is at a really good place. he's defined a narrative that fits romney and that you can use to push off against romney and against the congress. >> i like the fact he said the longer you are president you get better at it which is something that he has to make that case. people wanted to get better. >> the payroll tax fight which is coming sup going to be really

important. you saw what happened in december. the president was able to totally isolate john boehner and the house republicans from other republicans. and the republican party still has this conflict inside that's going to come out again. give obama the chance -- >> he's on the high ground because he's talking jobs. he's talking ways to create jobs. not fighting over the debt issue with the republicans where they do have an advantage over -- they had a history. jobs are still the democrats' job number one. thank you david corn and bob shrum. good numbers all around for the president but still some interesting questions out there. coming up, newt gingrich is viewing to stay in this race until the bitter end. like that word, bitter. is this about winning the nomination or a vendetta against romney? is he just raining on romney's parade which would help obama? [ female announcer ] lactaid milk is easy to digest.

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and caucuses. saturday's nevada contest was in fact, the second consecutive where turnout was down from 2008. in iowa and new hampshire, the turnout was slightly higher than in '08 and in south carolina, significantly better. in florida, the turnout was down 13%. in nevada, down 26% compared to four years ago. we'll be right back. according to research, everybody likes more cash. well, almost everybody... ♪ would you like 50% more cash? no! but it's more money. [ male announcer ] the new capital one cash rewards card. the card for people who want 50% more cash. what's in your wallet? woah! [ giggles ] until the end of the quarter to think about your money... ♪ that right now, you want to know where you are, and where you'd like to be.

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welcome back toed "hardball." >> a brazen newt gingrich took to the stage to announce he's in this fight for the long haul. all the way to the convention. he also used the opportunity to knock his chief rival. let's watch. >> i am a candidate for president of the united states. i will be a candidate for president of the united states. we will go to tampa. i also believe that the vast majority of republicans across the country are going to want an alternative to a massachusetts moderate who has been

proabortion, pro gun control, pro tax increase and who ranked third from the bottom in creating jobs in the four years he was governor. >> but is newt's campaign about winning the nomination or tearing mitt romney down and keeping him from winning the election? perhaps both. jim is executive editor for politico and michael scheerer for "time" magazine. it seems to me, sure, he's mad at the other guy. who ain't. we'll get into that in a minute. nobody wants to admit they're mad. he may have a coup shoefle of s here. he wants to win. something could happen to mitt. the other thing is he could do some damage to make sure he's never going to be president. that seems to be a noble effort. give me some other thinkings you might be going on here. >> if romney gets the nomination in the end but doesn't win, newt can say, i was right all along. we can't nominate a moderate. if they take it all the way to the convention, a lot more headflirns newt gingrich. he's running for a tie. there's not really room for --

>> and no loss in staying in? keep this fight up. he's not going to be vice president, right? >> he's a historian running for his place in history. there's no cabinet position there. >> is that fair to start off on the negative here, which i like to do. this guy, newt gingrich, he's going to get nothing, not peanuts, not crumbs, nothing from romney if he quit right now and it's over for those two together. no friendship, though? >> romney wouldn't want him. i don't think gingrich would want taking a place in a white house. i can't imagine that you'd want gingrich who is such a freelancer and such a free spirited thinker in your white house anyway. he's in it because i still think he believe he's has a plausible chance of winning. certainly does have a plausible chance. it's just hard to see the mechanics of how he would orchestrate a victory short of conservatives all of a sudden deciding, yes, he's our guy and everybody from sarah palin to the conservative media outlets, all sort of bless him as the

alternative to mitt romney. if that hasn't happened yet, why would it happen tomorrow or two weeks or a month from now? >> michael, before we go on on this, why are they giving up the conservatives? they look like they're laying down for romney now. what happened to the tea party? the anger and excitement that they really want a real winger out there for them. instead are now outsourcing it in to this guy. >> you can't say they've given up because in florida he was outspent 5-1. and nevada is a peculiar caucus state. they are still out there. and "the washington post"/abc poll said a quarter of all people who don't support mitt romney say the reason they are supporting somebody else is because they don't like mitt romney. these are republican voters. a quarter of the non-romney vote who is actively against mitt romney. i think they are still there. cpac later this week. other rounds. if you look at the polls, these things bounce around. and i -- jim is right. there hasn't been that unity yet but what we know about the republican party is this does tend to happen. that unity does come at the end.

romney this point last cycle was the conservative's conservative and there's a real chance that could happen to newt. >> there's no organizational structure for anti-establishment conservatives. there's not one or two leaders who can rally the troops or who have that stature. sarah palin has a niche following. rush limbaugh has a niche following. fox news, different folks on -- in primetime have niche followings. but there isn't one figure who can rally the anti-establishment conservatives. and so the fact you have santorum in there who pulls from social conservatives makes it almost impossible for gingrich to do that. a lot of those anti-establishment conservatives have serious issues about his viability as a general election candidate. >> they are very good at being negative. and rush limbaugh is excellent at forcing politicians, elected politicians, senators and congressmen to come and kiss his knee whenever they say something he doesn't like. here's newt defending his attacks on romney as a result of

the negative ad onslaught he faced starting in iowa but not ending there. let's watch. >> you can't unilaterally disarm in a world where someone is willing to be aggressor. i stayed relentlessly positive in iowa and lost 22 points. it's a fact, and if you aren't willing to stand and fight, then you have to get out of the race. >> let's take a look at the places where newt gingrich hopes to win. he's talking about winning in georgia and tennessee on super tuesday. and in alabama and mississippi. missouri when they have the caucus and in louisiana. michael, he is red hot. if you look at just where he did in the panhandle in florida, where all those people, you know, that old southern part of the state, confederacy part of the state. if he can replicate that around the deep south, he's going to have one heck of a number of delegates going to tampa. >> let's take a moment to cherish newt gingrich, the man who brought nasty politics to the 1990s, talking about how he just wishes we could be more

polite in the political system. he's going to do well in the south. mostly proportional voting. he's not going to be able to sweep it like huckabee swept it last time around. to get to 1144 is going to take awhile. no way he can just get out of the race right now. he's running right now for a tie. if he can get to the convention close to what mitt romney has, then he can make the case this was the front-runner who wasn't able to close the deal and that's why you have to nominate me. >> former house majority, dick armey criticized gingrich and his campaign. listen to this sarcasm coming here. >> i think he's digressed into a state of taking a second rate campaign and turning it into a first rate vendetta. >> you know, that's the kind of well crafted shot that the other guy knows you thought about before you delivered it. taking a second rate campaign. there's the personal shot and then the coup de gras.

so whatever bad blood is between these two guys and former leaders of the house of representatives in the '90s, it's getting spilled right now. >> the reason they get so unnerved is the fact that you can't -- it's very hard to find anybody who served under him in the house of representatives, certainly served at that leadership table that thinks he should be president of the united states. it's very hard to find people who have worked for him at think tanks, or people who worked in his campaign even six months ago who think he should be president of the united states. these are the people who worked most closely with him. these people are conservatives. these people want to win and want conservatism to prevail. and if they are frightened of the thought of newt gingrich being president, they worry that independents will be more frightened by that prospect. >> the trouble is he's like an old polaroid film. starting to develop. we're getting a good look at the old newt here and that's killing him. although i always root for the underdog in almost every fight. i want a fight. and this country deserves a good fight for both -- well, not both

nominations. i think for the republican nominati nomination. thank you, sir. i love "time" and politico. a spoof making fun of newt gingrich's promise to build a colony on the moon. next in our side show. the moon colony. you're watching "hardball." [ leanne ] appliance park has been here since the early 50s. my dad and grandfather spent their whole careers here. [ charlie ] we're the heartbeat of this place, the people on the line. we take pride in what we do. when that refrigerator ships out the door,

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a printed statement or receipt provides... ...with mail. it's good for your business. ♪ and even better for your customers. ♪ for safe and secure ways to stay connected, visit usps.com/mail back to hardball. now for the side show. first up, taking it all in stride. the nevada caucuses did not bring good news for newt gingrich. but that wasn't the only topic he was dealing with when sunday morning rolled around. here's another one he faced. what did you think of saturday night life. the spoof on newt gingrich's promise that we'll have an american colony on the moon if he gets elected president. >> the year 2014 is a year of

turmoil for america. comfortably serving his second term. president barack obama no longer hides his socialist agenda. the unemployment rate skyrockets and foreign armies gather their forces for attack. chaos reigns but from the darkness, a visionary emerges and leads a group of pioneers to pursue a better future in space. he is newt gingrich, moon president. >> you think he enjoyed the attention. he was shown the clip during his appearance on "meet the press" yesterday morning. the whole idea take away from the seriousness of his campaign? let's hear how he responded to that question. >> i propose a fundamental reform of nasa to engage the private sector in very bold and very dramatic ventures. this was not some slip. this was a deliberate effort to start a conversation. >> he's done that. even among his opponents, the

moon colony talk his been more an opportunity to get some laughs than to launch any heated debate about this subject. gingrich said he can hardly complain about getting attention from "snl." next up, leveling expectations. it may be getting late in the game but religious conservatives have yet to coalesce around a single candidate for 2012. that changes as primary season continues. according to tony perkins, who also heads up the family research council, there's still a long road ahead. let's hear what he said on cnn yesterday. >> we're not looking for a candidate that can walk on water. we're looking for a candidate who doesn't sink under the weight of their own baggage. it may be august before this is a done deal. we may go all the way to the convention before we have solid support behind a nominee. >> so how is that for a campaign slogan? vote for me. i won't sink under my own baggage. perkins also says his base is slowly warming up to mitt romney. republicans don't fall in love. they slowly fall in line. and how does president obama

view the nasty romney/gingrich nomination fight? in last night's pregame interview, matt lauer asked the president the size of how the race will affect the general election this november. and he added, matt had this visual aid to help him. let's watch. >> here's the cover of the new yorker, the most recent new yorker and it has a picture of you watching the big game on tv. and there you are sitting there and up on the screen it's not the patriots and the giants. it's mitt romney and newt gingrich, same team and they are pummeling each other. look at the smile on your face there. it is art imitating life here? >> you know, i've been through these primaries. they are tough. i think ultimately, this will be forgotten by the time they make a decision on who their nominee is. and the american people are going to make a decision on my platform and where i want to take the country and where the republican does. >> i think that smile is worth 5 to 10 points in the general. his campaign strategist might feel differently about what we're just talking about. up next, the u.s. is closing

its embassy in syria after another violent weekend there. tensions are rising with more talk of a possible israeli strike against iran. we're all talking about that one. how will this mideast turmoil affect the 2012 race? you're watching "hardball." nks.. so i'm glad it's with fidelity. they offer me one-on-one guidance to help me choose my investments. not just with my savings plan here at work. they help me with all of my financial goals. looking good, irene. thanks to fidelity, i can stay on top of my financial future, huh? good one. why, thank you. whether it's saving for retirement, college, or anything else, contact a fidelity investment professional today. if you took the top down on a crossover? if there were buttons for this? wouldn't it be cool if your car could handle the kids... ♪ ...and the nurburgring?

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hello. i'm melessa rehberger. a judge says jared loughner will have to spend another four months in prison being forceibly med xaptd gabrielle giffords is among his victims. the man who admitted to killing more than 70 people in norway last summer told a court he should get a medal for striking against, quote, traitors. and authorities say josh powell intentionally blew up his home killing himself and his two young sons. he was being investigated for his wife susan's disappearance. back to "hardball."

welcome back to "hardball." the economy is expected to be the main issue in the coming campaign. it's the economy, stupid. but there are several major flash points in the world that will affect the economy. certainly centered in the middle east right now. look at what the president is facing right now. just in recent days, on syria, russia and china vetoed a u.n. resolution this weekend that would have called on basal -- bashir al assad to step down. today the united states closed its embassy in damascus. and in egypt, the 30-year-old alliance with the united states is on shaky grounds after officials said yesterday that 19 americans connected with the pro-democracy ngos over there would be put on trial. one of those republicans is the son of ray lahood, our secretary of transportation. this is getting personal. and israeli leaders continue to

hint that military action by them is coming against iran and that's coming soon. could that be an ultimate october surprise or sooner? david sanger is chief washington correspondent for "the new york times" and nira tanden is the president for the center of american progress. thank you. david, first. let's go through the ones relatively easy. syria, why are we worried about the syria thing so much? how did we get to take sides against assad's kid. you think up until the beginning of january you asked -- they've lost count now. from the beginning, we wanted to toppis the guy. i think there was a strong sense during the end of the bush administration and even the beginning of the obama administration that assad may be somebody they could work with in a difficult way. remember he had tried to build the nuclear reactor.

as soon as the arabs. the problem now is we're not in the land of lousy options. we're in the land of no options. without a u.n. resolution, without a military option, there's very little the united states or others could do to stop what's happening. >> why did susan rice get so emotional today. >> she's calling it despicable. they're all professionals up there in new york. why is she getting so enraged. i think it's been fabulous taking on the u.n. >> there's a humanitarian crisis. the fact china and russia were unique in blocking this, i think there are a lot of folks at the u.n. who were really surprised that russia and china would be the ones to just say no to this. >> why are they saying no? >> because i think, you know, the argument they use is that they are concerned that given the libya resolution, they are concerned about military

strikes. and, you know, that's not what the resolution said. that's not what was at stake. that was in my view, the excuse they were using. but it's not, you know, it's in my view an excuse. >> here's secretary clinton using very strong language as well on this topic. this is yesterday. >> what happened yesterday at the united nations was a travesty. those countries that refused to support the arab league plan bear full responsibility for protecting the brutal regime in da damascus. >> i get the sense the russians are loyal to the old ties with the baathists over there. >> it's got a little bit of that, but also a lot of anti-americanism to it. there's a big element here of their feeling is if they were duped in the libya resolution. the russians, sorry. the revolution was about protecting the population and it

was turned to regime change. >> it was. that was mission crete. >> that certainly was. what this has created a clear division of is those who are supporting a responsibility to protect the citizens of syria and that's included the entire arab league. and i think what the secretary was getting at in the oddity here was that it was the other arab states who you could never imagine separating themselves from bashar assad. >> let's go to the real hot button issue. the president said the united states and israel were in agreement on the threat from iran. the president said the united states had successfully gotten other countries to increase sanctions against iran. let's watch the president on the hottest issue in the world right now. >> we have mobilized the international community in a way that is unprecedented. and they are feeling the pinch. >> has israel promised you that they would give you advanced warning to any such attack should they give you that warning? >> i won't go into the details

of our conversations. i will say that we have closer military and intelligence consultation between our two countries than we ever have. and my number one priority continues to be the security of the united states, but also the security of israel and we are going to make sure that we work in lock step as we try to solve this hopefully diplomatically. >> the big question is what we're going to do here. david sanger of the "new york times." what are we going to do? israel keeps sending signals. is israel basically feeling it has to do something this spring? >> israel says that it cannot allow iran to get into what mr. barack calls a zone of immunity. a place where the nuclear facilities are down so deep they could never strike them militarily. the united states has a very different view of where that zone begins and where it ends. so the u.s. position is there's a lot more time, and a lot of other options. remember what else has hit iran

in recent times. stuxnet, the computer worm, sanctions that are just now beginning to be felt in a big way and the u.s. argument is -- >> and assassinations regime. >> assassinations of the scientists which people assume was assad and there's probably a pretty good assumption. so those have all been under way, and the u.s. has said, give this a little bit of time to work. particularly the cut-off of revenues to the iranians. >> is there any way to know who is right? our intelligence or the israelis, how much time we both have? >> in a sense, i think they're both right. i think david's point is the issue is the american military has greater capabilities and can -- it has a longer time. >> we can go deeper. >> we can go deeper than they can. though sew that's the issue. we're two different countries with two different national security interests, although as the president said yesterday, our interests are very aligned with israel's and that is incredibly important point.

but i think the issue in terms of time horizons is we have a different time horizon because we have different capabilities. >> we're exposed all around the world, the united states. if the iranians decide to strike back, they have an amazing, virgin forest, around the world they can strike at us. missionaries, business people, tourists. they can strike with all kinds of weaponry. it's asymmetric. but if they decide to go to war with us for a long time. is there something worse than iran having nuclear weapons. think about that. if there isn't anything worse, strike them. thank you david sanger and neera tanden. up next, millions of americans watched the super bowl last night. millions of billions of people. one television ad is causing a stir. look at it. this is the big one. this is the one to watch. clint eastwood's. and this is "hardball" only on msnbc. ♪

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it's halftime. both teams are in their locker room discussing what they can do to win this game in the second half. it's halftime in america, too. >> well, welcome back to "hardball." those are the first few seconds of a super bowl commercial that lit a fire in the political world. it was a two-minute ad airing in a spot in which a raspy clint eastwood says detroit is showing the rest of the country how to make a comeback. here's more. >> all that matters now is what's ahead. how do we come from behind? how do we come together? and how do we win?

detroit is showing us it can be done. and what's true about them is true about all of us. this country can't be knocked out in one punch. we get back up and when we do, the world is going to hear the roar of our engines. yeah, it's halftime, america. and our second half is about to begin. >> i like that guy. "national journal" headline summed up one take on the ad. clint eastwood makes obama's day. republican strategist karl rove says he was offended by the ad. obama's strategist praised the ad and the ceo of chrysler says the ad has zero political content. viewed through a political lens and the question is could the ad be seen as pro-obama.

mark mckinnon is head of a strategy firm and was advertising director for president bush's 2000 and 2004 presidential campaigns. mark, you are on all alone except with me. and the question is, i saw the ad. what was your response to it? >> well, first of all, i thought it was a great, great ad. reminded me of "morning in america," one of the great political ads of all time. it's great because it evokes optimism and confidence and it evokes hope. but i didn't see it as particularly political, as being one side or the other. i think it's kind of like a rorschach ink blot test. people read into it what they wanted to. i could make a case that it could be a romney ad. you shift it up a little bit and say it's halftime. we need to put in a new quarterback. it's just as easy you could make that a romney or republican version. >> i'm with you completely. i think we're both being very nonpolitical. i heard it and i thought, i guess because i know clint eastwood is a libertarian and a republican or pretty much to the right that he was -- well, who knows his motives. obviously working here. but i think it's a rorschach test. today on fox news channel, karl

rove said he was offended by the chrysler ad and said it's a political payback for the auto bailout. you would expect a nefarious from him. >> this is what happens when yo happens when you have the government getting in bed with big business like the bail out of the auto companies, they begin to -- the leadership of the auto companies feel they need to do something to repay. i was offended, i'm a huge fan, i thought it was well-done a sign of what happens when you have chicago style politics and president of the united states and minions using tax dollars to buy corporate advertising and the best wishes of the management which is benefited by getting a bunch of our money they will never pay back. >> chicago-style politics. he won't quit. team obama praised the ad, dan pfeiffer communications director tweeted "saving the american auto industry something eminem and clint eastwood can agree on"

david axelrod tweet eed "powerf spot, did clint shoot that or narrate it." >> clint eastwood, #winning. what do you make of this? i think it's both ways and i just -- isn't it amazing to listen to rove find a nasty way of describing this thing. he actually calls this some sort of pay-back for the bail out, and that is why they do it. where does he think the conspiracy meetings are held, anyway? you don't want to comment? >> i break with karl, he's reading too much in it. the key to the ad that makes it so powerful it has a optimistic vision of the future, that is key to politics and winning and that is what john kerry never got, he painted a really bleak vision of the future, this is something george w. bush always understood, and that is you can't go out and campaign whether you're the challenger or incumbent and say the future

looks terrible, follow me. >> dukakis and al gore, kerry, i don't know what is in the democrat's blood stream that makes them do that. ronald reagan evoked in that america on the road to recovery ad, "morning in america" let's watch and listen. >> it's morning again, in america. today, more men and women will go to work than ever before in our country's history. it's morning again in america. and under the leadership of president reagan, our country is prouder, stronger, and better. why would we ever want to return to where we were, less than four short years ago. >> that was the great voice of hal rainey, brilliant mark. why don't democrats put ads like that on television? >> i went to kiss the ring of

hal rainey, such a guide in our business, i had lunch with him, he had four whiskeys and a pack of cigarettes. >> great having you on, mark, who will have the best ads this year? on the political side? >> i think both -- the team that produces ads like clint eastwood is the team that will win. >> optimism sell or are the people down so much? >> it always sells. whether you're the challenger or incumbent you have to paint an optimistic future and vision that is better, whoever does that, most persuasively will win the election. >> mark mckinnon, when we return, fine wish president obama's reelection campaign strategy, going to be i think how he's doing not who is running against him, i disagree with the talk about it matters who he is running against, all abut him and he can win or lose

the campaign. you're watching "hardball" on msnbc.

let me finish with this, lots of talk about the poll

number shows obama six points ahead of romney in a face-off. i would be careful with that number. people love talking about elections being a choice. you hear it won't be a choice between the president and all mighty but one between the president and alternative. in other words, it will be easier to beat someone than to beat the ideal. if that prospect get you the voter through the night, fine. if that gets you, the president and those working for reelection through the night, you better stay awake a little bit and listen to this. elections are about incumbent. think of a major league game you're the manager you keep your eye on the pitcher see how he's doing. if he is getting them out you keep him in. starts letting the other side scatter hits you get jittery. gives up runs, you get him warming up in the bullpen. looks like he can't get the other side out you walk out there, take the ball from him. that is what good managers do. we voters are good managers. we don't keep pitchers in the game when they can't finish the

job. lo look at gerald ford, the senior george bush, we yanked them. we had no problem pulling them. iets n it is not about the guy in the bullpen, the guy in the mound, if he has the stuff to get the job done we keep him in. if not we don't. so it's not about romney or anyone else who runs against the president it's about the president. just as we said all along romney solved the newt problem now the mitt problem. he t the president has to meet his own challenge. he will be reelected if he con vipss majority of the voters he has the stuff to finish the job and get the currentountry on it again. will he get us back to the prior economy? people want it back. if obama looks like he will get it back he will get reelected. if he can't, he won't. the country will put a reliever like romney in