>> i've got a kathy. she writes because my hotel room in kalamazoo has one of those inflatable beds and i'm not an astronaut or seven year has inf beds? do you have to put change in it too to make it shake? you're staying in a hotel perhaps you shouldn't be staying at. i love an inflatable bed, don't get me wrong, we have two of them. but not at a hotel when you're paying good money. i've got a tweet here, john tower. i'm up busy making my meryl streep fake i.d. well, it's about as plausible as the one this guy made in brazil. yes, if you're just joining us this morning, a guy arrested in brazil yesterday trying to open a bank account with that photograph on his fake i.d. you may recognize that man as the world famous jack nicholson. "morning joe" starts right now. ♪ in this room are the people who knocked on the doors and

made the calls and went to the polls and made an enormous difference. we didn't win by a lot, but we won by enough, and that's all that counts. >> a month ago, they didn't know who we are, but they do now. >> we came into the backyard of one of my opponents in a race that everyone said, well, just ignore, you really have no chance here. and the people of michigan looked into the hearts of the candidates and all i have to say is i love you back. >> top of the hour. and this morning, mitt romney is waking up the winner of back-to-back primaries in michigan. he won the popular vote 41% to rick santorum's 38%. and in arizona, romney beat santorum by 20 points, 47% to 27%. here's how the delegate count unfolded yesterday. romney picked up 38 including all 29 from arizona. the delegates in michigan, however, are broken up by

congressional district. meaning santorum will ultimately leave the state with roughly the same number as mitt romney. good morning, it is wednesday, february 29th, welcome to "morning joe." with us onset, we have msnbc and time magazine senior political analyst mark haleprin. we also have the executive editor at random house and pulitzer prize winning historian jon meacham. and in washington, msnbc political analyst michael steele. good morning to have you on, michael. >> good morning. >> and we'll start out with the primaries, but olympia snow. >> yeah, big news, she's out of it. but no doubt. this is big news for mitt romney. >> a good day. got to give it to him. >> a very good day. i just don't think he could've afforded the loss at this point. >> no, and even the margin by which he won there are critics who are saying it's still not enough. but we've got to give him a win.

>> listen, a win's a win's a win. if rick santorum hadn't gone ahead and if it didn't luk like he was going to win, if he had not blown himself up with one mistake after another. as charles krauthammer said last night, romney won in large part because rick santorum lost. >> it seems like he drove away women just a tad bit. >> well, i think he did. >> might have alienated them a tad bit. >> what's the churchill quote? i think they'll look back, the romney campaign. and this is their near death experience. this is the threat. the churchill quote, there's nothing more exhilarating than being shot at without result. >> without result. >> and romney was shot at, and the bullet whizzed pretty close to the campaign's heart and went past. >> a young george washington thought it was also exhilarating to be shot at. there's something sweet in the sound. >> my goodness.

>> i think he probably would disagree, could've forgone the whole experience. but he did it. and it'll be interesting to see whether this proportional delegate counting going on below the surface continues to keep it close. >> the thing is, mark haleprin, though, at the end of the day, the romney people were saying two weeks ago, it's going to be ugly, but we're going to squeak this one out. you've got to give the romney people credit. maybe their candidate's not the strongest in the world, but these people -- they know what they're doing. and they called this two weeks ago and said we're going to win and it's going to be close, and they were saying that when santorum was up by four or five points. >> i'm under instruction only to speak in political cliches this morning. that's exactly right, joe, the romney campaign did what they had to do, and they did and you can now see the path of the nomination.

the whole thing could be and would be ugly. if he does what he can do on super tuesday putting a lot of resources in, picking spots, getting delegates the day after super tuesday, they'll be able to argue mathematically it's impossible for anybody to stop him. he'll have a big enough lead shortly after super tuesday he'll be able to make that argument. there's a worst-case scenario, if he's wiped out on super tuesday, doesn't win anything out of virginia or new england, then we may go back to talking about his candidacy in peril. but if he does what he can and should do on super tuesday, he'll be able to make that argument of inevitability again. >> this was the race at this particular time, willie, that mitt romney could not lose. because if he had lost -- >> it would have been bad. >> i don't care what anybody says, i know people would've started moving from some that i have talked to, there would have been movement towards -- if not a brokered convention, a contested convention. >> yeah. >> that talk is dead now.

that ship has sailed. it's too late in the calendar. >> we talked about this yesterday. mark haleprin, john heilemann said the same thing. if we woke up this morning with a win in michigan, perhaps not arizona, but michigan for rick santorum, the white knight conversation would have been white hot. that would have been all we've been talking about. the other thing that's clear, though, from last night is that these guys aren't going away. santorum if anything is emboldened by a three-point loss in his state. newt gingrich is waiting in georgia, waiting for those southern states on super tuesday, this race is going to go on for a long time. >> i was of course at the orphanage this morning as i am every morning, and i looked up and little timmy said uncle joe, uncle joe, look at what mr. willie's -- because willie goes down too -- look what mr. willie's showing, and there was

a picture of newt gingrich talking about trees. >> did you see that? thanks to little timmy, i did. what was going on there? do we have a clip of that? what was going on. >> "way too early" is only factoring commercial time is only 22 minutes long, so we couldn't show the whole newt gingrich story. perhaps we have time on "morning joe," but he was relating back to trees the way mitt romney did in the state of michigan. >> show it to us. >> newt gingrich was at an event while everyone was focused on michigan talking about the trees in georgia. let's watch this. >> hold on. hold on, let this breathe. >> a friend of mine, we lived on a street right off the college. and he lived down at the bottom of the street. he had a really big tree that was dying. she said if that tree falls during the storm, it's going to hit the house. how hard can it be to cut down a tree? so we go to work cutting this tree, got the rope in place, and we get to a point where we think

the tree is about ready. and so we got on the tree, it was a really big tree. now, if you have 500 pounds pulling in one direction and -- turns out, when the tree breaks, it doesn't matter that you're pulling it, it's going to go in the direction that the tree's leaning. i personally have never tried cutting a tree down since then. >> that was one minute of -- it was between five and six minutes we're told by our sources on the ground. >> fantastic. >> anyway. >> so he's -- and rick santorum is, as well. >> he absolutely is. and you know what? there'll be a lot of money to make sure that happens and this continues to be ugly. but let's look at the exit polls from last night. according to nbc exit polls, 48% of voters who supported romney said beating president obama was the issue that mattered the most. 31% said having the right experience was a critical factor. 61% of michigan republicans think romney has the best chance

of winning in november and just 24% see santorum as the stronger challenger to the president. economic issues were key to romney's victory in michigan where the state's 9.3% unemployment rate is well above the national average. concern over the economy and deficit far outpaced social issues that santorum, of course, was putting out there on the trail. meacham. >> i think that's hugely important. and i think it has a lot to do with the general election calculus here. the longer santorum had the microphone. >> the worse it got -- >> for independents. >> could've won it probably. romney won 40% of republican voters who said the economy was the most important issue compared to 30% who supported rick santorum. romney's three-point margin still a victory was less than commanding in his home state, more than 40% of romney supporters say they still have reservations about the candidate and 8% say they only voted for him because he didn't like the other candidates in the race.

among women voters in michigan, romney got the best of rick santorum 43% to 38%. >> yeah, a couple of quotes here. the "wall street journal," and i'm looking for the exact quote from russell's note last night. but the wall street jury roournd something like rick santorum will talk about the economy, but he'll talk about the economy as a secondary issue behind saving traditional families first. and i -- i've got to say, and we've said this time and time again. again, going back to the pat buchanan quote about politicians as athletes, a political athlete. and it's a great way to put it. throughout this entire campaign we have had some really weak political athletes. and you know, the basics on the blocking and the tackling, having a message, a clear message, hammering that message home. we saw it with jon huntsman. a guy that we liked very much. he could not deliver a

five-minute stump speech. every night it was something different. every night he went on to a different topic. he couldn't stay on message because he had so many messages. this is rick santorum's same fault. he can't -- he's so undisciplined on the campaign stump. it's maddening and it's making a lot of his supporters angry. ben smith tweeted this of rick santorum's campaign last night after he lost. a frustrated gop operative e-mails me, all santorum had to do was turn his iowa speech into a tv ad and stick to it on the stump. and yet, mark, i've heard this since iowa, rick santorum seems completely incapable of being disciplined enough to deliver a stump speech. that will stick.

he keeps going down rabbit trails. >> on this set, we talk about him as the grandson of a coal miner more than he does. >> exactly. >> and last night was a great example. he gave like a 40-minute speech that was rambling all over the place. that is not how you send a message on election day. >> how undisciplined. >> you write a ten-minute speech with the help of an adviser, give your web address as mitt romney did last night i think maybe for the first time and you drive a message going forward. you don't say everything that's on your mind in 40 minutes. it is emblematic of the fact that he is not a great political athlete. >> lacks discipline. >> and the fact that mitt romney can only be that guy performing at that level by three points in his home state suggests a set of political athletes playing i'll be generous aa ball. >> and what i learned in my first campaign was -- and i guess a lot of these guys think they're too good for it, you write a stump speech.

and you deliver that stump speech. and you give -- and i remember being told this by somebody 20 years ago. you give the same stump speech so often that at some point after six months of giving the same speech, your staff members and the press that are following you want to throw up and think they're going to throw up if they hear the same jokes, hear the same punch lines time and time again. and here's a punch line. and then i was told at that point and only at that point, jon meacham, are you beginning to breakthrough with your message. and this is something -- ronald reagan, his closest friends said the man gave the same speech for 30 years. >> the beginning of the end of communism was at the ge plant circuit. because reagan started giving that speech in the '50s.

and it was the speech, as we know. he used to go into a zone when he gave that where he would then not recognize people for abo about -- some period of time after when he was shaking hands. and people thought he was sort of out of it. he didn't, he was just in a zone because he was delivering something that he totally believed and it was a performance that he had absorbed. and it is remarkable. the only person i know in modern political history who can ramble on message is bill clinton. >> right. >> and these guys are not bill clinton. >> it's a great point. ronald reagan, the speeches that ronald reagan gave for ge in the 1950s are the speeches ronald reagan gave on the campaign trail in 1976, in 1980, and 1984, and at the republican national convention at 1988 when he said good-bye to america. the same speech. and these guys, michael steele,

these guys can't deliver the same speech like a week apart. it is maddening how undiscipl e undisciplined they are. >> well, i think that's the core of it right there. and the messaging has been the enemy of the party, i think, since really last year. and this ability to -- the inability to communicate what you believe and how you're going to move the country forward, i think has been a large driver here. you've seen -- seen it reflected in the fact you have a slow or low turnout in republicans, who were juiced coming into the cycle, you know, to do this campaign to defeat the president. and yet we can't seem to be getting them to get to the polls. and a lot of that is the messaging. how these candidates are communicating. and i thought it was well put, you know, if santorum had taken that big speech and condensed it to a 30-second ad and just

hammered that in michigan. >> -- what his message should be. his grandfather's hands. the coal miner's son. the working class. he lifted his entire family on to his shoulders with those hands and gave rick santorum an opportunity to have more post-graduate degrees than the snob in the white house. >> and he went off -- >> -- not that last part, but think about that. a coal miner's son? grandson. being able to do what he's done and he can't deliver that message. >> and instead of hammering that home, he went off in five

different directions that were completely self-destructive. let's hear from the winner first, last night. mitt romney didn't mention santorum in his victory speech, instead focusing his attacks on president obama. >> four years ago, we warned that the presidency was no place for on-the-job training. well, today we have the economy to prove it. did he fix the economy? no. did he tackle the housing crisis? >> no. >> did he get -- >> no. >> no, instead he put it toward debts, deficit, and decline. it's time to get off that path and get back on the path of american prosperity. >> it's an issue about fundamental freedom. it's an issue about whether you want the government to take your money and exchange give you a right. give you a right they're going to give you the right to health care. that's what president obama promised, but of course, when

the government gives you a right, they can take that right away. and when the government gives you that right, they can tell you how to exercise that right. ladies and gentlemen, we need a candidate to go out and take on barack obama. who was an author from 20 years ago, the author of free market health care savings accounts has been a fighter for replacing all of these programs across this country with a government-run health care, with not romney care or obama care, but a program that's based upon you, called you care because that's what we believe in. >> all right. so obviously the romney campaign is ecstatic. i heard from one member of the high up campaign saying they got 70,000 more votes in michigan than they got four years ago. >> and a higher percentage. >> i think you're talking about the messaging. one of the things that the president has had a hard time doing is overcoming the kind of intellectual contempt for sound bites. he sometimes on the big speeches

intentionally goes out of his way to say i don't want it to be reduced to 20 words. submit that -- it's not what your country can do for you -- >> read my lips -- by the way, sermon on the mound, some of the greatest sound bites judge not that ye not judged, he said in his massachusetts accent. >> jesus did? >> yeah. >> mayor quimby. >> there's a reason the sermon on the mound. >> mitt romney's speech last night. >> but it was good. and i suspect i suspect he's going to do pretty well, michael steele if he gets through this process.

i think it's going to match up pretty well against president obama, mitt romney. >> oh, i think he will. i really do. i've never had any doubt about that. i think romney going toe-to-toe with the president is going to be something that i think everyone will see and recognize as a, you know, hey, this is good political theater. the problem still remains, though, in my estimation is whether or not you have behind you the army, the forces, the ground troops are going to be willing to go out and do the necessary work that's going to be required to defeat what will be and is currently a very formidable political operation. and that's where the passion, the fire. you know, mr. gorbachev tear down this wall. yeah, that kind of moment where people see it, feel it, want to be a part of it. that hasn't clicked for romney yet. and hopefully going into -- after the wind he gets in the sails here going into super tuesday, he'll find that voice like hillary clinton found her

voice in new hampshire and begin to speak in a way that allows him to pull that base closer to him. that they then become an army for him going into tampa and then into the fall. >> that was my question coming off that point to you, joe, is at one point we know the party doesn't love mitt romney. >> right. >> large factions of them dislike mitt romney. at what point do they say this is the guy we have? this is our candidate. we really, really, really don't want president obama on for four more years. >> i think it's going to happen a lot faster than we think. i've got serious concerns with mitt romney. i'm really, really scared he'll be another george w. bush, big-spending statist republican. that said, you know, if people like ann colter, hugh hewitt, rush limbaugh has said nice things about romney. i think it's going to happen pretty quickly. and there are some people that

held out hope that santorum might be the knight in shining armor, but he blew himself up with some stupid statements. and so i think they're going to start -- i think you're going to start seeing them move toward romney in the next couple of weeks. >> and the issue of money in this election and how it's dragging it out may ultimately be good for him. you know? to make him fight through it. >> well, exactly. you always hear that these long primary battles weaken the candidate, i think in this case, that may not be the case. coming up, tom brokaw will be here onset. we'll talk to former national security adviser dr. brzezinski. also -- >> oh, look at dan. >> dan bartlett, he's smiling, well, he's next to my dad. also harold ford jr.

but first, bill karins with a check on the forecast. bill? >> we're tracking some very serious weather out there this morning. major winter storm, tornadoes overnight, a snowstorm headed for new england late this afternoon through this evening. branson, missouri, got hit by a tornado last night, roof of the walmart collapsed, couple of hotels with significant damage in the entertainment district. those are the storms down here near the springfield area. we'll continue to watch these storms this morning. we still have tornado watches in effect for central kentucky and areas of tennessee. watch out there along the ohio river along evansville. tornado possibly headed your way. as far as the snow goes, heavy snow now reported north of minneapolis, northern michigan also a lot of heavy snow. that's what's headed for new england. during the day today, the weather goes downhill, the morning drive and everything's fine, it's the afternoon drive. we'll see the snow, and by the time we're all done by thursday, looks like central new england and northern new england, especially in the mountainous areas and the ski areas, we get

a lot of snow. boston, most of that heavy snow away from the water, you may have to do some shoveling. for boston, that could be one of the bigger snow events of the city. you're watching "morning joe" brewed by starbucks. ♪ ♪ [ multiple sounds making melodic tune ] ♪ [ male announcer ] at northrop grumman, every innovation, every solution, comes together for a single purpose -- to make the world a safer place. that's the value of performance. northrop grumman.

let's take a look at the morning papers at 27 past the hour. "wall street journal" for the first time since 2008 the financial crisis, the dow will open five points above the 13,000 mark adding 23 points yesterday. >> and from the washington post, apple is holding a media event on march 7th where they're expected to unveil the new ipad 3. >> they're going to get an iphone that doesn't break. >> stop being bitter. stop treating it like a basketball. >> no. >> apple shares up 2% yesterday closing at $535. ten years ago, you could have

owned the stock for $7 a share. here's one from our parade of papers, the portland press herald, in the latest shake-up, republican senator olympia snowe of maine says she will not run for reelection. it opens the door for democrats to fight for a seat long held by the gop. time now for politico. willie? >> let's go to mike allen, the chief white house correspondent for politico with a look at the playbook. before we get to the results, let's talk about olympia snow. big story coming out of the senate. she's announced she will not seek reelection. what does it mean? >> well, there's two big take aways. one is republicans were pretty optimistic about taking the senate. i can tell you the republicans are more and more pessimistic about the white house. a lot of them are looking past 2012, already to 2016. so the senate was what they were hanging their hat on.

also the moderates from the northeast. senator snowe was one of the last holding down the fort. >> let's talk about last night in michigan and arizona. what was your big take away, mike? >> well, our big take away is this is now a math problem for mitt romney. but he's not going to put this away. he's not going to close the deal through charm or through charisma or being bill clinton. it's starting now to be a state-to-state house-to-house knife fight for delegates. and this was not how the romney campaign was looking at the race. we know that by the fact they allowed him to lose in colorado and missouri from contests that were a little bit off the radar. one operative telling us that now we're looking at things like how do we do around atlanta? how do we do around nashville? and later today, we're going to see this. it's looking like rick santorum may wind up with more delegates from last night than mitt romney.

santorum has won seven congressional districts. there's one still out. so mitt romney's momentum now is going to come from just inching up contest by contest. so that it will take away the argument of rick santorum. >> and real quick on super tuesday, alaska, georgia, idaho, north dakota, oklahoma, tennessee, tough states all for mitt romney. >> they are, but santorum's really wounded after this. and i've been talking about his message. he's going to be switching. we're told he's going to be talking almost entirely about revising manufacturing. they recognize the mistake they made by getting so badly off message. also yesterday mitt romney admitting the stakes. we've been talking this morning about political athletes, something no elite athlete. yesterday in his first in three weeks, mitt romney said my campaign, my organization is fine, the candidate has made

mistakes. i'm going to work harder, do better. >> he did say one thing he won't do. set his fair on fire. . >> that's good. if you look at some of the stuff he puts in his hair, it's flammable. >> you couldn't put that. >> when that thing goes out like that, he looks like grandpa munster. >> i won't do that either. >> four months ago, he didn't have the goop in his hair. >> i can't answer that question. >> why not, willie? >> i'm not sure. >> willie -- >> are you covering his campaign? >> you have your own show. >> mike, thank you. >> have a good day. >> it goes out like this, he just -- you know what? >> chuck todd, david gregory, major garrett is going to be here. breaking down the primary results. president obama proved he is, in

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welcome back to "morning joe." time for some sports at 6:35 in the morning. for the past decade, the opening game of the nfl season has been played on a thursday night, not this year. the nfl announced it's moving the opener to wednesday, september 6th. why? because president obama's scheduled to give a speech at the democratic national convention on thursday, september 7th. the nfl making way for the president of the united states. the super bowl champion, new york giants will play in that opening game. we don't know who they're going to play yet. the first nfl game played on a wednesday since 1948. and you can watch that game, jon meacham, on nbc. isn't that exciting? >> where are the chimes? >> i was wondering. >> don't go back, you already did the french/indian war. >> that was good. >> and then jon meacham's first reference of the day. you're a big winner today.

>> the baseball, joe. this one's for you. your new man bobby valentine getting it done. fighting words for the new york yankees already. he poured more fuel on the rivalry going after derek jeter. remember this play? it's in yankee lore. the 2001 playoff. he stepped in, hit the cutoff man got the runner at the plate. valentine saying that play happened by accident, jeter was out of position on that play shouldn't even have been there. it's an iconic moment in history. bobby v.'s going after it and also took a shot at alex rodriguez while talking about the retirement of jason veritec. he was everything you want him to be. he was the leader of the pitching staff and able to beat up alex rodriguez. he was exactly what he was supposed to be. that from bobby valentine referring to the brawl that

happened in 2004 at fenway. >> these are the greatest pictures of all time. >> a glove and a paw. >> is this before or after a-rod went like this? >> i can't defend that. i can't defend that. veratec won a couple of world series titles, will announce his retirement on thursday. >> who was he -- what game was that where he was trying to -- >> that was at yankee stadium. i can't defend it. >> that was horrible. >> that was really bad. >> that was awful. packers quarterback aaron rogers, super bowl mvp, mvp trophy, commercials around the world. but the quarterback who succeeded him at cal where he played college, he has something rogers can never claim, a guinness world record for the longest paper airplane throw. here's aaron rogers' successor. >> there it is. there it is.

we are all over that one. that's going to do it. get up there get up there, get up there. >> something to be proud of. >> go iou. >> aaron rogers, impressive. >> getting it done. >> wow. up next, harold ford jr. >> joins us for the must-read opinion pages. you're watching "morning joe." look at all this stuff for coffee.

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santorum got to the point where he released a robo call telling democratic voters to vote for him. since michigan's republican primary is open to voters of all parties and mitt romney did not care for this tactic. what are the odds of the tape existing of mitt romney endorsing that very same practice? >> in massachusetts, if you register as an independent you can vote on the republican or democratic primary. when there was no real contest in the republican primary, i'd vote in the democrat primary, vote for the person i thought would be the weakest opponent for the republican. >> what a disgusting thing to do. you have some splaining to do.

>> pretty funny at 43 past the hour. time now for the must-read opinion pages. and joining us, msnbc political analyst and visiting professor at nyu, former democratic congressman harold ford jr. >> good morning. >> good morning, harold. >> you look good in that blue shirt. for the first time you're coming close to looking as good as me. >> that'll never happen. >> i didn't say there, you're getting closer. >> how important was that win for him? >> i listened to some of the conversation this morning and i've listened to others, i want to get to the headlines, but a lot of this stuff will be forgotten. think about a month and three or four days, south carolina, newt gingrich, he was on top of the world, a month or two from now, you and i both know when you get out of a primary and get out of these tough, ugly episodes, people look at you as a nominee. last night was huge for romney. had he lost, we would have been writing his obituary this morning. >> that's a perfect segue in the first must-read from the "wall street journal." it's the paper's editorial.

mitt romney's rebound. for all of his struggles as a campaigner, mitt romney doesn't lack for resilience. that character trait is essential in a president. and mr. romney proved again, tuesday, that he has it. by winning primaries in arizona and in an especially rough contest against rick santorum in michigan. mr. romney never makes it look easy. but as hillary clinton knows from 2008, victory beats the alternative. the candidates can help themselves if they stop playing the game of who is the real conservative. they are all conservatives of one stripe or another. gop voters want to hear a critique of mr. obama. but above all, they want to hear an agenda and vision for a better future that can rally a majority to defeat him. >> boy, what a great editorial. michael steele, couldn't have said it better myself. and what the "wall street journal" editorial said this morning. this, romney is resilient. getting beaten up, not a bad

thing because if you talk to republican people early on about the romney campaign, they all talked about the arrogance. >> yeah. >> and how they felt like it was their time and they were entitled and arrogant. that's been beaten out of them, hasn't it? >> it has. i think the base has humbled them mightily at this point. making it very clear that this is a process we want to be a part of. and yes, you may be the front-runner, but we get the final say. and so i think last night in many respects was very humbling because even though it was a closer vote than they wanted, he did win. and so he can take from last night the kind of momentum that a real front-runner will need going into that big super tuesday fight where he as you've already noted, joe, he's got santorum ready to prime the pump in ohio. and newt gingrich sitting there in the south ready to go after him there. i think he can take that

momentum, go to the base with that and say i get it. i'm ready, let's do this. and hopefully begin to -- coming on the other side of that -- putting together the pieces that's going to be a building blocks for a victory in november. >> mark, you talk about political athletes. i guess the best way to talk about romney's campaign is it's three yards and a cloud of dust. they're just grinding it out. and they plan to keep grinding it out until tampa. >> they have a very decent operation. strong in some places, weaker in others. but it is worlds ahead of everybody else and that allows them to grind it out, even with a candidate as you said yesterday is making mistakes. he said he's made some mistakes. they can grind this out now. it'll take something to intercede, the win was that big last night. it'll take something for him not to grind it out. but i said before, he must do well on super tuesday or this will go a lot longer just

mathematically. if he does well on super tuesday, he can start to make the math argument. >> yes, it'll be tougher if he doesn't do well on super tuesday, but michigan ended all speculation of anybody parachuting in. >> i think so. and also, it doesn't seem like santorum's going to have the ability to self-correct. here's what e.j. dionne says, michigan was an opportunity blown for rick santorum. he had a real chance of winning michigan and throwing romney's campaign into chaos. he went ahead in the polls after his trifecta of victories in minnesota, missouri, and colorado, but he couldn't close the deal. and women were key to his defeat. the two candidates ran close to even among men. most of romney's margin came from women. a victory tonight would've established santorum as the unquestioned leader of the republican right. now he will have to continue to fight to fend off newt gingrich for that honor. >> and charles krauthammer last night. >> yeah, that was fantastic. >> santorum's loss was

self-inflicted. >> yeah. when you decide you're going to throw up when you read president -- senator kennedy's speech in 1960, you're courting a kind of trouble. i think the voters in arizona and michigan should be commended for voting where 60% of the country which is there should be a separation of church and state and they can inform each other. but the kind of absolutist rhetoric that santorum has been using in recent weeks and throughout his career is not something that people want on the national stage. >> well, there's just -- and i don't even think this goes to the substance of issues of separation between church and state, or you talk about the other issues where rick has stumbled. he's just -- what was the -- oh, the snob statement. >> anti-college. >> the snob statement harold ford. he's going out there, and it seems like he's throwing

political molotov cocktails into the crowd. you could make a good argument about elitism and liberalism on college campuses in america. and have a great argument to make about that. same thing about separation between church and state and how the left has tried to retch those words from their proper context. instead he throws bombs into the crowd. >> his comment about college. i mean the easy point was that there are a lot of people in this country who are not going to go but need a skill set to compete and help america compete. he went on -- he has a tendency to do this. to answer questions that have not been asked. and he continues to make romney look more and more reasonable and makes romney look more and more like the candidate that republicans want. i tend to think he'll do well on super tuesday. jon meacham and i are from tennessee.

when you have two conservatives in a race against a moderate republican, the moderate republican always wins. if he's able to win there and in ohio, you give georgia to gingrich and look at the mountain west states, this could be another good day for him, another good night. >> i think newt could do very well in the south. so -- you have -- don't you agree, michael? >> i do. >> you're going to have newt taking conservative voters, santorum taking conservative voters. and in the end, it may be like south carolina four years ago where the perceived moderate, you know, in that case was john mccain won because you had huckabee and fred thompson splitting the vote. >> i think you laid it out exactly right there, joe. and it's going to be an opportunity for, i think for the romney campaign to begin to stop the bleeding and to slow this train down or speed it up, rather in terms of getting toward that nomination. so tennessee and ohio loom big for him and i think it's a real opportunity. >> meacham? >> it was pretty clear last

night from santorum's speech. he's going to be running as the candidate of rural america. and so i think that's going to be a constant hum now all the way to tampa. still ahead, we're going to bring in dr. brzezinski and tom brokaw. >> all of america loves him. and willie's news you can't use. straight ahead. we'll be right back. [ leanne ] appliance park has been here since the early 50s. my dad and grandfather spent their whole careers here. [ charlie ] we're the heartbeat of this place, the people on the line. we take pride in what we do. when that refrigerator ships out the door, it's us that work out here. [ michael ] we're on the forefront of revitalizing manufacturing. we're proving that it can be done here, and it can be done well. [ ilona ] i came to ge after the plant i was working at closed after 33 years. ge's giving me the chance to start back over. [ cindy ] there's construction workers everywhere. so what does that mean? it means work. it means work for more people. [ brian ] there's a bright future here, and there's a chance to get on the ground floor of something big,

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tonight is also particularly special for me because this was a place i was born. this was the place i was raised. my mom and dad lived many years here, love this great state and i know the michiganders in this room, we consider you all family. thanks so much. and in this room are the people who knocked on the doors and made the calls and went to the polls and have made an enormous difference. we didn't win by a lot, we won by enough, and that's all that counts. >> it's getting harder for people to make ends meet because

we have a government that is crushing us every single day. with more taxes, more regulations, and the idea that they know better than you how to run your life. that ultimately is about what this race is about. it goes down to the very nature of who we are as americans. are we a country that believes in big government? do we believe in the smart and elite in this country to manage us? or do you believe in free people and a free economy and building a great america from the bottom up? what do you say? >> top of the hour, and this morning, joe, mitt romney is the winner, let's give it to him. back-to-back primaries. in michigan he won the popular vote 41% to rick santorum's 38%. in arizona, romney beat santorum by 20 points, 47% to 27%. here's how the delegate count unfolded yesterday. romney picked up 38, including all 29 from arizona. the delegates in michigan,

however, are broken up by congressional district, meaning santorum will ultimately leave the state with roughly the same number as romney. welcome back, everyone. mark haleprin and harold ford jr. are with us along with michael steele in washington and tom brokaw joins the table. thank you so much for being onboard this morning. >> tom, you don't want to overstay the result of an election. but it seems to me last night, right now with you onset, i'm going back through the years. and this michigan win from mitt romney i would suggest is every bit as important as george w. bush's win in south carolina back in 2000. remember george w. bush's win in new hampshire after coming in third in iowa back in '88. this is a race mitt romney couldn't afford to lose. >> ronald reagan's win in new hampshire. >> exactly. >> beat in iowa by george bush.

this is an important race for him, but it's clear this is going to the convention in one form of the other. i think romney should have the delegates by the time he gets there. the comparison in my mind is 1996, there are still a lot of peasants with pitch forks out there. and they're going to show up in tampa bay. and that could become an issue for the republican party. and that's something they're going to have to start to deal with. if romney gets the nomination, the tea party people are not going to go away. i don't think rick santorum's going to go away, and i don't think newt gingrich ever goes away. so he's going to show up there. and they're going to demand their voice. and the question is, can that party come out of that convention in tampa bay united behind and enthusiastic about a candidate that so far has been for them a kind of reluctant date at the big prom. >> and you're referencing pat buchanan 1992, 1996. a lot of people talk about

buchanan in '92, but it was really in '96 that really, i think, the republicans with pitch forks just decided we're not coming out for bob dole. and it killed him in the fall. >> and that's a big issue. they have to get control, first of all, of the delegates and make sure they have enough and get control of the convention. and there's going to have to be some people who are honest brokers between the various factions of the republican party. and there are now a lot of them. and if the objective is to defeat obama, it's not that we beat up each other all through the summer and at the convention because that'll make it harder for us. >> it seemed like rick santorum was beating up himself, though. more than they were beating up each other in this primary. he could've won this, could he not, mark haleprin? >> no doubt about it. and tom references the republicans coming together. you quoted the "wall street journal" editorial page after the romney win. and you just sort of sense that's coming together.

>> it does. he looked good last night, mark. >> one of the things that romney did. you're right, santorum had self-inflicted wounds. but did what he did to gingrich, went directly at santorum. and he's shown, first with gingrich and now with santorum they have feet of clay too. santorum voted to raise the debt limit and voted on behalf of unions. >> he voted for the $7 trillion medicare drug plan without paying for dime of it. >> but by showing that for the tea party and the pitch fork people, there's no pure candidate out there, i think it makes it easier for them to rally around romney because they don't have any champions still left in the race. >> and you brought up the point about how santorum just blew it. and we had the buzz feed quote up earlier. >> it's a tweet, right? >> it's a tweet from ben smith. but this is what he tweeted last night. >> it's the bottom line. i don't like the foul language. >> the frustrated gop operative

e-mailed me. all santorum had to do to win michigan was to turn his iowa speech into a bleeping tv ad and stick to it on the stump. >> it is true. and michael steele, he didn't do it. and i guess those of us in the business for a while, it's stunning that a guy running for the president of the united states could not discipline himself enough to stay on message. >> and he had a powerful one. that blue collar message resinated, boxed romney in in terms of his own messaging and the sort of elitist view people began to have about him. and yet, santorum would diverge from that message. and i think it slowly ate away at his heels to the point where weakened his achilles and he couldn't go any further, and romney caught up with him and past him and looked back at him and said how do you like me now? one of those moments. and santorum has to figure out how he recovers.

does he do what he should've done in michigan going into super tuesday? that is find that message, hone it down, and stick to it and drive it through those super tuesday states to make romney really work for that vote. >> harold, jon meacham said earlier that we were laughing about how ronald reagan and ronald reagan's friend said this, gave the same speech for 30 years. what about you? did you deliver the same -- i'm still giving the same speech i gave back in 1993. >> you are. >> boring everybody. >> the core remains unchanged. the things that motivate and color, and motivate you getting into politics, always come out. in a lot of ways, santorum, what we're seeing, this is the santorum he would be as president. i think this whole blue collar thing, i think he's able to relate. but at the end of the day, you've said it before, the moral issues, the social issues, he relates to more, he's more comfortable talking about and it came out. i guess the question i'd have for tom brokaw who has seen so

many of these candidates in light of what mark has said, you look at all the people that romney's overcome. cain, trump, may not have been serious, bachmann, perry who emerged and many thought he would be unbeatable. now obviously gingrich and santorum. has he not done something that is unique in these primaries? he has literally taken on one by one and taken them all down which may strengthen him in some ways heading into the fall and it's easy to forget one month ago and three days, newt gingrich was on top of the political world having won south carolina. will people forget two months from now some of the cadillac comments and other things romney may have said? >> i think that's probably true. but in none of these victories has the republican electorate carried him out of the stadium on their shoulders. they have not celebrated george romney. they've not elicited any kind of a passion for him. and i think they'll probably rally behind him because they

want to beat obama. there are two issues here. one is, what's going to be the tenner and tone at the republican convention? who is going to talk? what are they going to have if rick santorum gets the platform at the republican convention. a lot of what we've heard in the last week could play out across the national air waves going into the national election. that's something that they have to think about. bob dole was wounded when he left san diego because of marilyn quayle and pat buchanan and other people who had a message that was out of sync really with where the center of the country is. as we all know at this table, the big issue is here how do you get to the independents? >> right. >> who are those people that they're going to rally behind and it's not just the candidate, but what does the party stand for? i think there's a very telling political development this morning and olympia snowe saying i'm getting out of here, i can't take it anymore. i think that speaks to a lot of people in the country when someone who has had the distinguished record she does who has been a moderate on a lot of things and a states woman in

many ways now said it's just not worth it anymore. so if that gets reinforced at a republican convention or democratic convention, we've got a different set of benchmarks by which we measure. >> an important statement by olympia snowe. the president while the republican candidates were squaring off was speaking to auto workers. we'll get to that in a moment. let's take a look at exit polls showing that 48% of voters who supported romney in michigan said beating president obama was the issue that mattered most. 31% said having the right experience was the most important factor. 61% of michigan republicans think romney has the best chance of winning in november. just 24% see santorum as the stronger challenger to the president. still, romney's three-point margin of victory was less than commanding in his home state. more than 40% of romney's supporters say they still have reservations about the candidate. and 8% say they only voted for

him because they didn't like the other candidates in the race. among female voters in michigan, romney got the best of rick santorum, 43% to 38%. among supporters of the auto bailout in michigan. obviously a big issue there. 43% backed romney and 38% backed santorum. >> a win's a win. >> it is. >> no question. and this was a binary thing. if he would've lost, it would have unleashed negative things for him. and by winning, he asserts the clear path to the nomination and he hasn't totally united the party. barack obama lost by like 30 points or something to hillary clinton in primaries in west virginia and other places late in the process. he's going to lose some things down the road, going to lose some things on super tuesday. he needs to convince the party he's on a path to the nomination through the delegates and he needs to perform better. you could almost chart his chances of being a president by every day does he say something like, you know, i like firing

people and -- mr. >> got a couple cadillacs. >> more days than not, he's got to avoid saying that. he said something yesterday about the base if hillary clinton said four years ago, she would have been killed on. i forget the exact words, i'm not going to say things to excite the base. he said you can say outrageous things and excite the base, but i'm not going to do that. >> you're talking about your primary voters. and i think he's got to stop. >> michael? >> no, mark, you're making the point. and that's exactly the frustration that a lot of folks around the country in those blue-collar towns and those small towns and big towns around america have with romney is that we want you -- we want you to say those things that excite us to show us that you get our passion, that you understand what motivates us. it's not just throwing a bomb to be throwing a bomb. that's connected to something. it's connecting to something

principled about you that you're telling the story about growing up in michigan and why those trees are important to you. and that's the part that's missing. and so, yeah, you can roll out of the convention and, you know, he's got the organization and the machine in place, but where's the love? >> well, and -- >> where's the passion? >> and i think mitt romney doesn't get it in this respect. you don't have to call people snobs that encourage -- >> right. >> -- americans to go to college. you don't have to say john kennedy made you want to throw up talking about separation of church and state. just give us the top of speech that chris christie can give, that paul ryan can give, that jeb bush can give. go out there and say, you know what? we've got to balance our budget and make our schools better, and we've got to make our health care system better. but what the democrats don't understand is as a nation, we spend more money per student than any other nation in the world as a nation, we spend more

on health care than any other nation in the world. obviously the democrats have had their way in education and health care for a generation. they've had their chance. it's our time, competition, et cetera. give that kind of speech that reagan or thatcher or christie or jeb or paul ryan would give, and you can excite the base without throwing bombs in the audience. >> and joe, you know what's important about what you just said, that is the perfect counter argument to the economic argument that the democrats are making against republicans right now. but, you know, we've tried trickle down and you see that hasn't worked. well, guess what? we've tried your approach on education and we've tried your approach in a whole number of areas of our economy and our society that haven't worked. he can make that argument if he just brings it down, relaxes, and be himself enough for people to see who he really is. >> and by the way, this doesn't happen in a vacuum.

mitt better find his footing and his voice because i'll tell you what, listening to the president yesterday, he has found his. >> yeah, and the president took his message and his voice to the united auto workers while the republicans were squaring off. take a listen. >> you know why i knew this rescue would succeed? you want to know? it wasn't because of anything the government did, it wasn't just because of what management did, it was because i believed in you. i placed my bet on the american worker. and i'll make that bet any day of the week. the recovery is speeding up. now it's time to keep our foot on the gas, not put on the brakes, and i'm not going to settle for a country where just a few do really well and everybody else is struggling to get by! >> yeah. >> that's the guy -- >> there's a contrast.

>> he's finding his footing. he is finding his footing. and tell you what -- >> look. >> romney better find his. >> i'm sorry, harold, you're next, but with rick santorum, it's even worse because he had a message that everybody really liked and he threw it down the toilet and went off -- >> because rick santorum could say, don't lecture me, mr. president, on the american worker, i know the american worker. my grandfather, et cetera. >> nobody would believe him now. >> instead, he goes off -- >> that's the guy he is. the political figure he is, rick santorum, and he can't break out. we all are the political figure we are. romney, he's not going to throw and pore emotion into the speeches as the president just did. and the country will have to make a decision whether they want a repairman or want the president or the passionate leader in barack obama. and at the end of the day, i

think it'll come down to how you're doing around your kitchen table, how your neighborhood is doing and how your city is doing. >> tom, if we have that president, that political athlete, again, to quote buchanan in the fall taking that populist message against mitt romney who i think will be better in the fall giving a traditional republican message, that's a hell of a choice for americans to make. that's actually a pretty damn exciting election to have. >> it is. and i think the country needs a big election, by the way. we need big choices and talk about big issues. a lot of things we haven't talked about for me, at least, notably, china. what are we going to do about china? what's our relationship going to be? how do we respond to the challenges they give us every day and every conceivable way? that will have to be back in play by then. let me make a couple of comparisons if i can. mitt romney and george bush 41 come out of the same gene pool. privileged backgrounds, not at

ease with themselves on the platform necessarily. you don't have any ringing rhetoric. george bush running against michael dukakis was 15 points down in august and won the race. people forget that. and he picked dan quayle as his vice presidential candidate and had debates and he won the race because they had a clear path about how they wanted to keep him on and they put dukakis immediately on the defensive, which was a big, big issue for him. >> right. >> a lot of what happens this fall, joe, will depend on what happens between now and the fall. in the economy, iran, in afghanistan, and all these places where the big issues are still very, very much in play. i've said it here to the point that my wife is ready to throw up, the ufo theory is still in place. the unforeseen will occur at some point. and it's very hard to project how people will respond to it. >> potential game changers to use your words. >> no doubt. go back to september 15th, 2008, that was a turning point in that

election. when we had the meltdown and people saw how the president responded to it and how senator mccain responded to it and that -- you saw the numbers change. >> the health care debate before the supreme court, what the supreme court does around obama care law could have a similar impact september 15th -- >> tom brokaw, stay with us. still ahead we'll talk to former national security adviser dr. brzezinski also dan bartlett and white house correspondent for national journal major garrett. up next, nbc's david gregory and chuck todd break down the race from last night's primaries. you're watching "morning joe" brewed by starbucks.

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mitt romney plus a mustache equals george hamilton as zoro. >> i'm mitt romney, and i approve this message. >> welcome back at 24 past the hour, joining us now from washington, the moderator of "meet the press" david gregory, and here onset in new york, political director and host of "the daily rundown" chuck todd. i want to start with olympia snowe, you brought it up during the break and i think it's a great conversation point because we've been talking about the primaries last night. we'll get to that and hear you guys break it down. but here's what she said yesterday as she decided not to run again. i'm well prepared for the l electoral battle. however, i've had to consider how productive an additional term would be. unfortunately, i do not expect the partisanship of recent years in the senate to change over the

short-term. obviously a lot of reasons, david gregory, go into decisions like this, but she's putting it squarely on problem number one in congress and how people feel about it. >> well, i think she knows so many people around the country know that congress is not getting anything done, and that's republicans and democrats no matter who's in charge. the polarization is as great as it's ever been. the partisanship is more entrenched. and the republican party is frankly still going through a sorting out period where depending on your point of view, all they want to do is say no to the president or they're getting back to some of their first principles as a party and that's making the group very difficult to govern. i think in her view, it is both, but it leaves her as a northeastern moderate republican out in the cold and not really welcome in this republican party that is starting to build off of that momentum from 2010. and as chuck made an observation earlier on the "today" show,

this really does reinforce an argument that president obama has made about a republican party unwilling to do business with him. to compromise on some of the big issues that the country has to face as tom was just talking about. >> you know, chuck. there's no doubt, there is a split in the republican party. it's harder to be a northeast republican than ever before. at the same time, you and i when we talk to senators in either party, they just say this is not the place that i thought it was going to be. i don't know a liberal democrat that likes working in the united states senate. it is a miserable existence. >> i always say this, you really want to know the frustration, talk to a former governor, a former republican governor. >> they hate it. >> they hate it. and there's a couple -- one or two that are very conservative who sit there and say, you know, i couldn't -- i had to -- they worked in legislatures. they remembered they had to deal with that one ideological

outlier inside their own party or another party that caused them problems. and they knew they had to figure out and we've got to work something out. they can't believe that can't get in the u.s. senate. >> that's on both sides. ideologically, both sides, they hate it. >> no, you talk to mark warner, they'll all sit there and they just lament this inability to sort of have a better working relationship with each other. >> what's your take away from last night, chuck? >> the more things change, the more they stay the same. mitt romney survived. he had another near-death experience, he still hasn't won rank and file republican conservative voters, that's still an issue. but he's still likely to get this nomination, but it's not going to be easy. he probably is going to have one or two more rough moments where because he still can't excite conservatives -- that speech

last night, i thought was just such a missed opportunity. he sat there and made a case against the president. he still doesn't know how to make a case for him. the republican vision for himself. that somehow at least if you can't excite the republicans about you or conservatives about you, at least have them buy into you. and you still get the sense that he knows that not everybody's bought into him and he's tried so hard to say, look, i'll be okay. i can attack the president. >> he talks about ending the death taxes. there's a kind of tone deafness about that. >> and asks for money. >> that's actually a serious problem. number one, he really doesn't want to write a check. and he may have to the way -- you know, i've talked to a lot of folks who have worked around romney world, they don't know how he avoids it and they know how much he hated having to do it four years ago and doesn't want to have to do it this time. but that goes at something. this is the front-runner for the republican nomination has been the front-runner for over a

year. he has an inability to create a small donor base. rick santorum will probably have more donors in the next fund raising period, individual donors than mitt romney. how did that happen? >> we've been lamenting the fact that these guys just aren't very good at what they do. the blocking and the tackling. why can't mitt romney just read the editorial page of the "wall street journal"? have his staffers take quote out of milton friedman books, margaret thatcher speech. i just don't understand, why can't he connect to the base? why can't he put a message together? >> i think the blocking and tackling is actually okay. to extend the metaphor, he can't make the deep pass. can't strike a knockout blow. he's not very lyrical in his speeches, there's not a lot of poetry in his campaigning, and that's who he is. i mean, this is a guy whose whole public experience and private experience is about

turning things around. and that's a campaign he's running. i thought, okay, this is a big acceptance speech after important victories, fire wall held in michigan and another fire wall holds. he's got to make a case for why only he can be the nominee and ultimately can beat president obama. and we got a bit more of the same. and i think i finally realized, he wants to play within himself. i think the argument he made yesterday which is i've made mistakes, i'm not going to turn things to turn the base to excite the base. it was both a message to donors, look, i get it, i'm going to retrench a little bit. but i think he also recognizes he desperately wants to run as a fiscal conservative in the fall but as a more cultural moderate. that's what he knows how to do. he doesn't make as many mistakes. he doesn't want to take santorum on over religion or whether he should go to college. he wants to run as a fiscal conservative, take the case to obama and is desperately worried if he tries to tack to the right

for expediency, he won't do it well. >> and tom, he's avoided making mistakes on social issues saying something that could come back and -- he goes into the general election, i think, without gaffes in that area. it's going to be the 1% area where he says things about his wealth. >> well, he doesn't want to go into the general election defending against the research the other side is doing about every little thing he had to say that may not resinate. look, at a certain point in our lives, we are who we are. the chances of me becoming -- going on stage with 50 cents as a rapper is not going to happen. >> probably not. >> and the fact you said -- >> he clearly wants to be invited. >> i knew i'd get harold's attention with that. >> the other thing, you look at santorum. santorum had a lot of things going on, but he's always been

an angry candidate. and just when he had it going in michigan, he could not resist. >> could no one in his campaign tell him what was working? >> and the same thing with newt gingrich. this is true of all the candidates, also true of president obama. >> the past is always prologue. and harold, you can go back to the huge win he had in iowa and the next day, i always look at what candidates do the next day after iowa to see whether they're the real deal or not. because if they keep their head down, don't get too excited, if they act in the words of vince lombardi like they've been there before, you know they're going to last. what did rick santorum do? got in a fight with college students in new hampshire about gay marriage. and i sat there watching, are you kidding me? >> he walked off the stage in the middle of that fight. look, this is the point that david has already made well. tom has reinforced. >> what about chuck? >> chuck laid out the landscape.

i'm talking about the candidates, they are -- >> you are so smooth, harold ford jr. >> they are the same -- >> i applaud you. >> these guys are who they are. and romney, for better or for worse, he won't be invited on the stage with 50 cent either. this is going to take me to victory or it's not. it's the right thing to do, he's going to be a formidable candidate in the fall because he has a record where he saw things, fixed things. >> by the way, apparently we've decided that dennis green is america's smartest pundit who yelled, we are who they thought they were. and that great little pre/postgame speech. and he goes we are -- it is true, eventually you know, we figure out who these people are. but let's remember, santorum blew his moment over the last six days. >> totally. >> and when you look at a 41-38

result. >> he should've won. >> it was women too. >> santorum -- >> they said see ya. >> it's what krauthammer said. >> let's not pretend romney survived again -- >> take us through really quickly the math here. >> well -- >> what does romney have to do? >> well, look, he's probably -- but he's going to win virginia. nobody's on there other than paul. you would assume it does propel him to grab ohio. if for some reason he could steal tennessee, one southern state, tennessee's been given a choice between a businessman republican and an ideologue. >> particularly two. >> usually they choose the businessman. >> oh, yeah. >> it is a place that romney could in the south -- and if he did that, then maybe we'd end this sooner rather than later. >> david gregory -- >> remember, ohio. no republican wins the white

house without winning ohio in the fall. that's a stand he wants to make on super tuesday because as tom knows, the most important issue for 50 cent is electability. and i think that's where -- >> you're supposed to call it the ohio republican primary. someone said on twitter. always have the word "the" this week. got that, david? >> thank you all so much. still ahead, an exclusive look at wall street paydays. new york state comptroller will be here with new numbers from last year's bonuses out just this morning. "morning joe" back in a moment. ♪[music plays] ♪[music plays]

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i'm meteorologist bill karins. this is right through the entertainment district. best western hotel was significantly damaged. that was the walmart right there. it looks like minor damage. doesn't appear too many injuries. be uh you can see there, i guess maybe a little more than minor, looks like major, but no fatalities, many injuries in that area. another tornado has hit just about an hour ago in harrisburg, illinois. associated with the same line of storms. another walmart was almost destroyed in that area and we're thinking that damage is a little bit worse.

there are multiple ambulances rushing to harrisburg, illinois, at this time. that's the area of concern. also southern indiana around the evansville area. tornado watch continues everywhere from louisville down to just about nashville. that line of storms has to go through your area. it should weaken slowly but it hasn't yet. areas of new england, that's the story later on this afternoon towards this evening. you're going to drive home in the snow today in albany, springfield, even into boston where we could see some of the more significant storms from boston to new hampshire and southern maine. but the big news this morning, overnight tornadoes have proved deadly. updates to come here on "morning joe." you're watching "morning joe." brewed, of course, by starbucks. ♪

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♪ what's worse, angela merkel? a, a waiter spilling five beers all over your shoulders? or b, george w. bush giving you an unsolicited shoulder rub? if you guessed "b," you are correct. see you next week on what's worse, angela merkel? >> oh -- >> i don't understand. i would love to talk to the staff member and say, hey, why don't you give merkel a back rub. oh, he's here. >> former counselor to george w. bush, and now the president and ceo of hill and noton strategies. also here with us, "national journal" major garrett is with us. >> are you kidding? that was an easy day. president cheney shot somebody. this was easy.

>> that's nothing. >> back rub. >> back rub, shoot a friend. >> that was kind of cute. >> looked like merkel was more offended by the back rub than cheney's friend was the shotgun to the face. let's talk about mitt romney dodged a bullet. how important was that? >> that was crucial. could you imagine the conversation this morning if he lost one or both of those? >> game changer. >> while the most important thing is while he came off the victory in new hampshire, down in florida, don't go into prevent defense now. he has really got to stay on offense. this is going to be a continued hard slog. but, yeah, this would be a fundamental conversation this morning. they're pleased but they know they're not out of the woods. >> you've been there the morning after and talked to a candidate, what would you be saying to the governor this morning? fine tuning if that's necessary or changing message or putting him in a different place? what would you suggest? >> there's all this talk about having to try to address his

fundamental issues whether it be with the base of the party or being more in touch with people. you're not going to change the stripes of a man, particularly at this point in a candidacy. the stress is there, the fatigue is there, that's how mistakes are made. that's why we're seeing the mistakes he's made, because they're putting him in uncomfortable positions. go back to why people want to support you, which is they think you have the best shot at obama. if you have to keep him on script, keep him on script. but they should have an offensive playbook that goes after the white house and the president day in day out. >> and that's where they're going to go. >> the message up until super tuesday will all be about obama. there'll be very little engagement of rick santorum. that's the message i got last night. they're going to look at washington, unsure what's going to happen this saturday in washington. you don't know what the turnout models are going to be, somewhat optimistic, they would like a win there, but they know if they lose there, it resets this narrative. they can't keep the momentum going. tennessee, ohio, quite clearly the best opportunities. but i think there was something very important yesterday even

before the polls closed. mitt romney said there have been mistakes. everybody knows that's not true, his staff has made mistakes. they blew it in colorado, they blew it in minnesota, they made mistakes, but romney said -- >> i like that in a leader, though. >> the people that work for him, that's when they say, you know, that's why i'm working for this guy and i'm going to work harder for this guy. those things matter subtly internally in a campaign. >> ground control, obama builds while the gop fights. what do you think of this, dan? one of the best kept secrets of obama's 2007/2008 campaign was how much its structure and strategic focus was influenced by the bush/cheney reelection strategy. obama wanted to create the same kind of data bases and contact schemes. he marvelled at the ability to identify potential supporters and keep them motivated. enthusiasm for obama now is not like it was then but ground operations are robust.

in just about any big city, you can find obama reelection events on a daily or weekly basis. take las vegas. from tuesday until march 31st, the campaign has 156, you read that right, 156 events planned. meet ups, voter registration drives, phone banks, neighborhood walks, house parties and coffees. an outlier, 63 events scheduled in the same time period in raleigh, north carolina. >> what carl rove with help did in 2004 was revolutionary. they weren't running to the middle, they found -- and i always tell the story, pensacola, florida. no republican ever comes to pensacola, florida. you guys in '04 worked it like it was the i-4 corridor. i've never seen anything like it. and you could see this coming a mile away. the obama team is copying what you guys did in 2003. >> and they have technology,

technology is making it easier and more precise and less expensive to go about doing that. the other broader point, though, is the power of incumbency. you layer over that political outreach, athe ability to use al the levers of government to keep certain segments of your base, of your constituency fired up and ready to go, this is a very well-run campaign, sophisticated campaign. i think that's what's got most republicans concerned about november, including obviously the macro trends of the economy. >> and on the technology side, think about it this way, barack obama on facebook has 12.7 million likes, or 12.7 million followers on twitter and far more on facebook. in addition to these sites, they have virtual town halls. they work through software programs they give to their volunteers and their paid staff. they have eight offices in michigan, already open. three in arizona, a fourth in glendale will be opened within a month. the rnc on tomorrow, thursday,

will put on its first state directors anywhere in the country four states. they're behind, republicans know they're behind, and they look at this operation that obama has both end and the old fashioned organizing end. i call president bush a committee organizer in the 2004 campaign. because obama did genuinely and david plouffe genuinely looked at that model and they found votes when they needed him, that's how they turned iowa and new mexico, and those two states didn't have gay marriage bans like ohio did, there's no artificial bump in turnout that democrats complain about in 2004. you build new models and the campaign is paying very close attention. >> that paints the faint glow on the horizon in terms of the economy, things are starting to get a little bit better. the stock market which is a false positive indicator hit 13,000 yesterday. but they're beginning to see some relief, for example, in foreclosures and mortgages and people are going back to work. so, the confluence the obama

campaign is going very well. there was some criticism about him a month agoing after romney. i thought this was modern campaigning. >> wrong sidtrack, right track. >> it's down to 50%, when we won, it was 62%. >> big difference. >> michael steele, how does the republican party and its potential nominee catch up? >> pardon me, what was that? wait, wait. >> i asked you a question. i mean, look what major wrote about the obama re-election team and how entrenched they are and some of the things they learned along the way, how do you republicans catch up given the confusion they feel right now? >> i think you go back to the strength and the strength for the party has always j from the bottom up, and the base is ready and willing to get out there and get active. irrespective of the respective

of the politics at the top and the nomination process and all of that. the rank and file wants to start chewing on something, and let's give them something to chew on. in 2010 we focused your attention you want to begin to take control of the congress, let's fire nancy pelosi. that's something for them to begin to chew on as we worked through who the candidates were going to be in these primaries that we had to still run between april and september or october. so, giving the base something to begin to organize around and chew on to galvanize that fight for them think begins to help put them back in place. having those directors that are beginning to go out there across the country is a start. a late start, but it's still a start, to begin to do that. >> dan, in 2004, there were so many things for you guys to work with. and in the bush operation, iraq divided the country down the middle. but that was a pretty good organizing issue. what does mitt romney have to

excite the base? >> well, hopefully that he put together an economic plan that can rally around. obviously he's coming a little bit late with the new proposal he has. but that has to be his calling card even with the fact that the economy sim provinis improving, to make the stand, he's got to bring it down to the granular level where the common joe out there can understand it. he hasn't been able to do it yet. but when they think about the general election, it all has to come back to the economy to make the base. >> is just being the candidate that can beat barack obama enough? i know you can win off-year elections, in '94 we did it against clinton, in 2010 republicans did it with obama. you can be against something. but in presidential elections it's not enough. >> it's not enough. it can be enough to get the nomination, but they have a lot of work to do to paint a picture, a narrative, a philosophy, an agenda about why

he's ready to be president. >> how radioactive do you think obama care will be by the election? >> i think it still will be. i think it's a net/net for the republican party and the nominee. >> tom, you brought up not only the supreme court decisions on president obama's health care also affirmative action. listen, there are a lot of liberals in new york and washington that might think that cuts democrats' way. listen, those are two fights that david axelrod, and you know this, those are two fights that david axelrod does not want to have in july or august of this election. >> if this court rules against affirmative action, in this cap case they very well might, it's a lot different from the michigan case, i think it will have a big impact on the campaign in terms of the dialogue that exists out there, about fairness and class warfare and where we're going and the underrepresenting whites in this country who are not getting the same breaks that other ethnic

groups are. so, these are the kind of things that are unknowable at this point that could get injected into the campaign. >> and, major, president obama doesn't want that type of fight. >> but i've always believed and the obama campaign believes this as well and so do most republicans that i talk to, whatever the supreme court decides on the health care law it won't alter the fundamental politics, if you don't like it, you still won't like it. if you like it, you will still like it. if they preserve it as a republican you'll back the republican to turn it over. >> major garrett, dan bartlett, thank you guys. >> thank you. we'll be back with much more "morning joe." [ female announcer ] goodnight gluttony, a farewell long awaited. goodnight, stuffy. goodnight, outdated. goodnight old luxury and all of your wares. goodnight bygones everywhere. [ engine turns over ] good morning, illumination. good morning, innovation.

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the people who knocked at the doors and made the calls and came to the polls, it made an enormous difference. we didn't win by a lot, but we won and that's all the difference. >> a month ago they didn't know who we are. but they do now! >> we came into the backyard of one of my opponents, in a race that everyone said, well, just ignore, you have really no chance here. and the people of michigan looked into the hearts of the candidates, and all i have to say is, i love you back. this morning mitt romney is waking up the winner of back-to-back primaries in michigan. he won the popular vote, 41%, to rick santorum's 38%. and in arizona, romney beat santorum by 20 points, 47% to 27%. here's how the delegate count unfolded yesterday.

romney picked up 38. including all 29 from arizona. the delegates in michigan, however, are broken up by congressional district, meaning santorum will ultimately leave the state with roughly the same number as mitt romney. welcome back to "morning joe." back with us on set we have mark halperin and jon meacham along with michael steele in washington. >> he's the best. this is big news, mitt romney. >> a good day, you got to give it to him. >> a very good day. i just don't think he could have afforded the loss at this point. >> no. and even the margin by which he won, there are critics who were saying it's still not enough, but we've got to give him a win. >> listen, a win's a win's is win. if rick santorum hadn't gone ahead and if it didn't look like he was going to win, if he had not blown himself up with one misstatement after another. charles krauthammer said mitt

romney won because rick santorum lost. >> he might have alienated women just a bit. >> i think they'll look back, the romney campaign, and this is the near-death experience, this is the existential threat, there's nothing more exhilarating than getting shot at without result. >> without result. >> and romney was shot at, and -- >> the bullet whizzed pretty close to the campaign's heart, and went past. >> yeah. i think he would disagree. there was a young george washington thought it was also exhilarating to be shot at or something sweet in the sound i think he said in the french and indian war. >> my goodness. >> i think he would probably disagree, forgone the whole experience, but he did it, and it will be very interesting to see if this proportional delegate counting going on just below the surface continues to keep it close. >> yeah. the thing is, mark halperin, though, at this end of the day, the romney people were saying two weeks ago, it's going to be

ugly. but we're going to squeak this one out. you got to give the romney people credit. you know, maybe they went ugly. maybe they went by going negative. maybe their candidate's not the strongest in the world, but the people, they know what they're doing. and they called this two weeks ago, that they were going to win and it's going to be close. and they were saying that when santorum was up by four or five points. >> i am under direction only to speak in political cliches this morning. that's exactly right, joe, the romney campaign did what they had to do, they did. and you can now see the path to the nomination, they mentioned it would not just be ugly, the whole place would be and can be ugly. if he does what he did on super tuesday, picking his spots and getting delegates, the day after super tuesday, they'll be able to argue what david plouffe and barack obama argued, that mathematically it's impossible for anybody to stop us, they'll have a big enough lead shortly

after super tuesday he'll be able to make the argument. there's a worst-case scenario if he's wiped out on super tuesday and doesn't win ohio or new england, we may go back to talking about his candidacy in peril, but if he does what he should do on super tuesday, he'll be able to make the argument of inevitability. >> this was the race, at this particular time, willie, that mitt romney could not lose. because if he had lost -- i don't care what anybody says -- i know, people would have started moving from some that i've talked to, there would have been movement towards if not a brokered convention, a contested convention. >> yeah. >> that talk is dead now. that ship has sailed. too late in the calendar. >> we talked about this yesterday, mark halperin, john heilemann said the same thing, if we woke up this morning if we were sitting here with a win in michigan, maybe not perhaps arizona, but in michigan for rick santorum, the white knight conversation would have been white hot, that's all we would

have been talking about. but it seems like it's been tamed down at least. but the other thing that is clear from last night, the guys aren't going away. santorum is embolden by only a three-point loss in mitt romney's home state, if he gets the money, newt gingrich is waiting for georgia and the southern states and superi tuesday, the race will go on for a long time as long as there's money. >> let's look at the exit polls, it's interesting, according to nbc exit polls 48% of voters who voted romney, leaving president obama with the issue that mattered the most. 31% said having the right experience was a critical factor. 61% of michigan republicans think romney has the best chance of winning in november, and just 24% see santorum as the stronger challenger to the president. economic issues were key to romney's victory in michigan where the state's 9.3% unemployment rate is well above the national average. concern over the economy and deficit far outpaiced social

issues that santorum, of course, was putting on the trail. >> i think that's hugely important, and i think it has a lot to do with the general election calculus here. the longer santorum had the microphone -- >> the worse it got. >>-- the worse it got for independents. >> romney won 47% of republican voters who said the economy was the most important issue compared to 30% who supported rick santorum. romney's frequent margin of victory was less than commanding in his home state, more than 40% of romney supporters say they still have prereservations abou the candidate and 8% said they only voted for him because they didn't like the other candidates in the race. among women voters in michigan, romney got the best of rick santorum 43% to 38%. >> yeah, a couple of quotes here. >> yeah. >> "the wall street journal" -- and i'm looking for the exact quote from russell snow last night, but "the wall street journal" said something along the lines of, yes, rick santorum will talk about the economy. >> yeah. >> but he'll talk about the

economy as a secondary issue behind saving traditional families first. and -- and i have got to say, and we've said this time and time again, again, going back to the quote about politicians as athletes, a political athlete, and it's a great way to put it. throughout this entire campaign we have had some really weak political athletes. and, you know, the basics and the blocking and the tackling, having a message, a clear message, handmmering that messa home. we saw with jon huntsman a guy, you know, that we liked very much, he could not deliver a five-minute stump speech. every night it was something different. every night he went on to a different topic. he couldn't stay on message because he had so many messages. this is rick santorum's same fault. he cannot -- he's so undisciplined on the campaign stump. it's maddening. and it's making a lot of his supporters angry.

ben smith tweeted this of rick santorum's campaign last night after he lost -- a frustrated gop operative e-mails me all santorum had to do to win michigan was turn his iowa speech into a bleeping tv ad. he didn't say bleeping in the -- in the e-mail, tv ad and stick to it on the stump. and, yet, mark, i've heard this since iowa, rick santorum seems completely incapable of being disciplined enough to deliver a stump speech that will stick. he keeps going down rabbit trails. >> on this set we talked about him as the grandson of a coal miner more than he does. >> exactly. >> and last night was a great example. he gave, like, a 40-minute speech that was rambling all over the place. that is not how you send a message on the election. you write a ten-minute speech with the help of an adviser who

understands how to communicate, you give your web address as mitt romney did last night i think maybe for the first time and you drive a message going forward. you don't say everything on your mind in 40 minutes. it's emblematic of the fact that he is not a great political athlete. and the fact that mitt romney can only beat that guy performing at that level by three points in his home state suggests a set of political athletes playing i'll be generous double a ball. >> what i learned in my first campaign was, and i guess a lot of these guys think they're too good for it, you write a stump speech. and you deliver that stump speech. and you give -- and i remember being told this by somebody 20 years ago. you give the same stump speech. so often that at some point after six months of giving this same speech, your staff members and the press that are following you want to throw up, if they

hear the same jokes, hear the same punch lines time and time again. and here's a punch line, and then i was told it's at that point and only at that point, jon meacham, are you beginning to break through with your message. this is something ronald reagan, his closest friends, said, the man gave the same speech for 30 years! 30 years. >> the beginning of the end of communism was the ge plant circuit, because reagan started giving that speech in the '50s, and it was the speech as we know. he used to go into a zone when he gave that, where he would then not recognize people for about -- for some period of time after he -- when he was shaking hands. and people thought, well, he was sort of out of it. he wasn't. he was in a zone, because he was delivering something that he totally believed and it was a

performance that he had absorbed. and it is remarkable. the only personal i know in modern political history that can ramble on message is bill clinton and these guys are not bill clinton. >> it's a great point. ronald reagan, the speeches that ronald reagan gave for ge in the 1950s are the speeches ronald reagan gave on the campaign trail in 1976, in 1980, in 1984, and at the republican national convention at 1988, when he said good-bye to america. the same speech. and these guys, michael steele, these guys can't deliver the same speech, like, a week apart. it is maddening how undisciplined they are. >> well, i think that's the core of it right there. and the messaging has been the enemy of the party, i think, since really last year. and this ability to -- the inability to communicate what

you believe and how you are going to move the country forward, i think has been a large driver here. you've seen -- you've seen it reflected in the fact that you have a slow or low turnout in republicans who were juiced to re really gin up coming into this cycle to do this campaign to defeat the president. and yet we can't seem to be getting them to get to the polls. and a lot of that is the messaging, how these candidates are communicating and i thought it was well put, you know? if santorum had taken that big speech and condensed it to a 30-second ad and just hammered that in michigan, you are looking at very different results last night. when we come back we'll talk to former national security adviser, dr. zbigniew brzezinski, his thoughts on the violence in afghanistan, iran's nuclear ambitions and the uprising in syria. and also an exclusive first look at the bonuses handed out

at wall street last near, new york comptroller bill dinapoli will talk about it. and deadly tornadoes in kansas and deadly tornadoes over the last two hours in areas of southern illinois. this is branson, missouri, by the way, we have two walmarts that were pretty much hit hard and almost destroyed, one in branson and another one in harrisburg, illinois, the two cities hit hard by the tornadoes last night. no fatalities so far out of the branson, missouri, area, but the entertainment district was hit hard, that's right where the majority of the tornado went through. as far as what we're dealing with, we just had a new report of a tornado on the ground in kentucky, severe weather threat has been shifting to the east. we are watching one little storm that continues to push tornadoes, just went through the madisonville area of kentucky, thankfully the line of storms this weekend is going through the louisville, kentucky, area, and if you live in the area, go indoors and let the tornado go through. it's produced tornadoes the past half hour, and as far as new

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it is fair to say that progress has been made, and we have invested an enormous amount of blood and treasure in afghanistan. we do have a stake in trying to help work toward the best possible outcome, and that's what we're doing now. >> that was the secretary of state hillary clinton defending the u.s. mission in afghanistan at a senate hearing yesterday. and joining us now from washington, former national security adviser for president carter, dr. zbigniew brzezinski, author of the new book "strategic vision, america and the crisis of global power." dad, great to have you on this morning. >> good to be with you, mika. >> let's start there. secretary clinton saying we have a stake in afghanistan for a

good outcome, but could we ever have a good outcome there? >> she has to say it, because after all she represents america. she has to put up a great front for american foreign policy. so, i sympathize with her and i support her. but the facts of life are that you don't create democracy by war unless there is an early phase of historical evolution in that society which makes prospects for democracy somewhat promising. i think that in afghanistan, even worse in iraq, we are beginning to shed some illusions. you know, germany became a democracy after its defeat in 1945 because for the previous 100 years germany was earlier a democratic state. we forget that. even under imperial germany just prior to world war i, the mayor of berlin was a socialist.

japan because of the major restoration became a democracy after we defeated it. but the situation's very different in afghanistan or in iraq, and i think we have to learn the fact that wars don't solve political problems. wars may be necessary to avoid a defeat, but they don't solve political problems by themselves. >> and here we are ten years in, an incident regarding a koran being burned has led to 30 deaths, 30 u.s. deaths, thousands out in the streets. it seems like we are further away from -- from having control over that country than ever before. what do we do moving forward? >> well, that's exactly right. i think we have to stick, however, to the plan that we've announced, which is a kind of accelerated but essentially still gradual disengagement but one which doesn't last too long which goes on into 2013, 2014,

but basically we'll be out, but the problems have to be handled by the countries in the region how best they can do were, and we'll help from the outside. in addition, we have to avoid getting involved with any additional conflicts in the world. because we have the situation with several conflicts going on and if we're not careful they could merge into one grand regional crisis. afghanistan is integrated with pakistan. iran is interrelated with us and iraq and in afghanistan and the conflict between iran and israel. syria is exploding. all of that could become a regional disaster and particularly for us if we're upfront. >> dr. brzezinski, it's willie geist, good morning. there was a report in the associated press a couple days ago that the israeli government had informed the white house behind closed doors it was fully prepared to, quote, go it alone in terms of going after iran's

nuclear program. what would that look like to you exactly, and does that seem likely to you that israel would go it alone without its closest ally even knowing it was doing so? >> well, it all depends on how they do it, of course. if they do it, for example, through an airspace that we're responsible for, have in mind iraq, we're going to be viewed by the iranians as complicit, so i'm not sure that is exactly doing it alone. but i have reasonably high confidence that the israelis could do something on their own, there's no doubt about it. they have the ability, the skill, the guts to do it. the question is, is it politically wise. is it politically wise for them to contribute to a dynamic that might make the region even more unstable? linking all of these problems in effect in a series of explosive reactions. in the short run, we'll pay the price, the american taxpayers will be paying $5 per gallon of gas, and the world economy will be affected. in the long run, one has to ask

one self seriously, will israel survive in the area and will the passions become dominant, that's the basic historical question that they have to face. we have to face it, too, and i think we have to be straightforward in defining our national interests and be straightforward in promoting it. >> and the front page of "the new york times" is running the story, u.s. sees iran attacks as likely if israel strikes not only against israel but also attacks, terrorist-style attacks, on the united states, civilian and military personnel overseas. mark halperin? >> dr. brzezinski, i'll ask you about china, your name was invoked here yesterday about a discussion about the administration's thinking about china, you and others invoked this during the cold war being big strategic thinkers not tactical day-to-day operators on how to deal with the soviet uni union. do you see this administration as economy as secretary clinton

and secretary panetta are, do you see big strategic thinking about how to deal with china, and if so, who? >> i don't think there's big strategic thinking going on in terms of china, but these are very bright people, with very good experience. moreover, i think our politic on china is on a whole correct. we're trying to institutionalize, normalize, a balanced partnership in which the benefits are mutual and not one sided. there is a problem of tactics, how do we do that. sometimes we're i think a little bit too one sided in our own criticism of the chinese, which runs the risk about demonizing them and they demonizing us in return. but i think on balance towards china, the administration has been responsible, reliable, and has a longer-range vision than it is pursuing. >> let's move on to syria. reports are that the death toll in syria rising to 7,500 civilians.

what can the united states do? what should the united states do? should we push nato to move in or sit back and watch this continue? >> well, first of all, i think syria is not libya. and assad is not gadhafi. this is a stronger player. a tougher regime. we're also not positioned so to speak geographically, geopolitically to take direct military action. it wouldn't be easy for us to do that. last but not least, i don't think we should be on the forefront for political reasons. because our position in the middle east is rapidly deteriorating. and israeli/iranian conflict will further accelerate that deterioration. if we get involved in our own or as leaders on some effort to intervene in syria, that, too, will have that negative effect. in my judgment what we should do is this --

there are two neighbors of syria that are good friends of ours, good friends of ours. one of them is a member of nato and even a democracy, namely turkey. the other one is saudi arabia. i would in effect say to the turks and the saudis, this is your baby. it's right next to you. you decide what you want to do and we'll back you and help you. but you have to take the lead and do some of the heavier lifting. this cannot be an american responsibility. that would be counterproductive. >> and what would you recommend our diplomats do faced with the fact that china and russia both stand in the way of any strong sanctions at the united nations? and just a few days ago they praised the referendum in syria as a positive first step. >> well, that's obviously deplorable and it reflects the fact that they have a very different view of what's happening than we do. and they probably feel that us

taking the lead in a way diminishes them, so it's part of the big power rivalry. but the choice that we have here is not necessarily ostracizing them or making the u.n. the key formula for a solution. i think the better approach is a regional, local approach, where the neighbors of syria potentially most directly affected by negative developments decide what in their judgment needs to be done. if turkey and saudi arabia take the lead, if they're willing to be committed, if the arab league supports them, that is enough for an effective response if it is to be mounted. but i would be personally inclined to be cautious here, because i think assad will be much tougher. it's a much tougher nut to crack. so, you know, some sort of cautious approach probably is preferable. but if the turks and the saudis want more direct action, i think we should back them. >> and you, of course, in

"strategic vision" talk a great deal about the porks importance of turkey, and it seems like the events, since your book was released, the events over the past month or so show that to be the case more than ever. >> yes. you know, the purpose of my book was not to advance a blueprint for the immediate but to make the case that if you have problems today, that you have to address, you might be able to solve them more effectively if you simultaneously had a vision, a longer-range vision, as to where you want to head. and i think europe needs turkey. turkey and europe would be a great asset for us in terms of influence on the region that's so explosive. turkey is showing that democracy and westernism is compatible with the islamic traditions and faith. turkey for 100 years now has been trying to emulate a european system, trying to make itself look like a european

country and is doing it well. so, turkey is a very major, positive development in so far as the potential for making the west more stable, more productive, more responsible. and, by the way, i argue in my book also that in the longer run that could be the case with russia, especially after putin or after if he wakes up and realizes that he's in the 21st century and not trying to re-create the empire of peter the great. >> okay. we'll leave it there. dad, thank you so much. dr. zbigniew brzezinski. the book is "strategic vision." >> thanks a lot, dr. brzezinski. >> thank you, doctor. >> good to be with you. >> okay, we'll see you soon. what do you have next? >> lighter fare, newt gingrich spent the evening in his home state of georgia talking about a tree. what? >> ah. no. >> i don't understand. what? >> we'll weave the yarn when we come back. >> a tree? i look at her, and i just want to give her everything.

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welcome back to "morning joe." 8:36 in the morning. rit romney may have started a trend on the campaign trail. >> talking about, like, supply-side economics?

entitlement reform. >> what? >> the thing with the tree. remember a couple weeks ago he professed his love to the trees, particularly the height. do you remember that? >> what is that? >> a little history, i was born and raised here. i love this state. it seems right here. trees are the right height. i like seeing the -- i like seeing the lakes. i love the lakes. >> i love the lakes! >> that's the winning message, right? >> true. >> i love the lakes. >> maybe gingrich heard that. >> there you go. >> and romney talks trees he wins. >> the trees in his home state no less. newt gingrich is in georgia, his home state at a rally, making no reference to the primaries. >> what does he talk about if he doesn't talk about the primaries? >> he talked about a man and his tree. >> what? >> excuse me? >> a friend of mine we lived on a street right off the college and he lived down at the bottom of the street. and he had a really big tree that was dying, you know, he said if the tree falls during a storm, it's going to hit the

house. how hard can it be to cut down the tree? so, we go to work cutting this tree, got the rope in place. and we get to a point where we think the tree is about ready. so we got on the tree. it was a really big tree. now, if you have 500 pounds pulling in one direction and 15 -- when the tree breaks, it doesn't matter that you're pulling it. it's going to go in the direction that the tree's leaning. i personally have never tried cutting a tree down since then. >> now you know. there you go. >> that's the message. >> talk about trees and you win your home state, that's the message. >> so he's in georgia. >> looks like it. >> too formulaic. >> i don't understand. up next, we've got a big guest next. exclusive first look at last year's wall street bonuses. what the numbers may mean to the economy. >> i want to know what harold

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42 past the hour. this morning the dow jones will open above 13,000 for the first time since may of 2008. the s&p 500 meanwhile is at its strongest level in almost four years. the next big test for the markets comes a week from friday when the labor department releases the february jobs report. as wall street rebounds, how are the executives doing? here with us now is an exclusive look at last year's bonus figures on wall street, as new york state comptroller dom mass dinapoli. very good to have you on the

show this morning. i'm looking forward to the exclusive look, are they up, down, the same? how do you characterize them? >> they're down, 2011 was a tough year. we track in the comptroller's office the cash bonus payments to new york city-based securities employees. it's important to us in terms of projecting revenue for our budget purposes, so we're projecting that the bonus pool be about $19.7 billion, about a 14% decrease from the bonus pool of last year. >> 14% decrease, last known weeping for the guys at goldman sach s. aren't they getting compensation in other ways so that publicly they can say our bonuses are down? >> well, keep in mind there's still fallout from the financial crisis and anticipation of continued implementation of regulatory reform and changes as a result of the response to that crisis. so, you're seeing more in terms of stock options, deferred compensation. in fact, some of the big firms are now announced bonuses will be down 20% or 30%, but our

number is a little lower than that because you'll also see deferred compensation from a couple years ago being paled out this year. so, you're really seeing a combination of a response to what was a difficult second half of 2011 in terms of profitability, but also continued restructuring of the industry in terms of how compensation is paid out. base pay is higher. xe compensation's more deferred. but you are seeing the response to the second half of 2011, very difficult third quarter and fourth quarter. job loss as well we're projecting through 2012, 10,000 jobs lost in the industry. >> wow. >> big state with a big economy, with the bonus in context, how much of that leads to economic growth in the state? >> well, we look at total activity including bonus. it's about 14% in terms of revenue coming to the state. >> of all revenue coming to new york. >> yeah, yeah. actually that's a lower percentage than before the meltdown in '08 and '09 when it was closer to 20%. >> wow. >> the city is 7%, the city's

revenue down from about 13% prior to the meltdown. so, less of a factor, but still obviously a very, very important part of our state and our city's economy. >> some of us were talking yesterday about wall street. and talking with the writers from "the new republic" about the obama economic team. and he said that time geithner actually believes -- i'll simplify this a little bit -- that's what good for wall street is good for america as well, because if wall street's not doing well, the jobs, the money is going elsewhere. from where you sit, would you agree with secretary geithner? >> well, certainly as a new yorker whether you love them or hate them, we need wall street to be profitable. i think the challenge is the business model needs to be tied to sustainable profits. we've gone through peaks and valleys. highs and lows. from the perspective of planning a government, when the profits

are high, we assume it's going to last forever, and then, of course, we're caught short and when you have a crash like you did in 2008, 2009, it really exposed some real challenges in terms of the budgetary situation, so from my point of view, more oversight and transparency, we see risk and leverage. that means sustainable profits that are more predictable, that's good for everyone and good for new yorkers and america. >> i'm wondering just what your opinion is on this when you say the business model needs to be changed. are part of the reasons because of problems that we had with disparity or is that completely separate? >> it's probably a separate question. i mean, it's obviously a very large discussion and will go on certainly in an important year like this, a presidential year, in terms of the disparities out there, but, again, from a new york perspective and from an american perspective, we want wall street, want new york to be the global capital for finance. we just don't want the kind of risky behavior that rewards short-term profits and results in the kind of crash that we had

that really hurts everybody else. so, you know, again, the changes on a federal level. if that helps us avoid that risky behavior that hurt everybody, but we still have profits generally, that's good. we estimate for new york city, for every job added on wall street, two more are created in the boroughs of new york city, one more outside of the city. the reverse is true if wall street is shutting jobs, it affects the rest of the economy. there needs to be a balance. >> a lot of people said regulatory reform didn't go far enough at the federal level, de wall street been squeezed? a lot of people don't think it's been sqeelz esqueezed enough. >> part of what you're seeing is an anticipation of what is coming and that's why you are seeing more impet actuals for the compensation and the base pay and paying out over time and

time rewards to long-term, sustainable profitability. i don't think that's bad. again, from a government planning point of view, a budgetary point of view, it enables us to have a more predictable revenue stream and we can avoid, then, the valleys like we went through in 2008 and 2009 and we're still suffering from the fallout, no question about it. >> thomas dinapoli, thank you so much. >> thank you very much for coming. we appreciate it very much. looking ahead to tomorrow, goldman sachs. >> buddy roemer. and danny divito will be on the show. we'll be right back with the best of late night. ♪ [ male announcer ] from our nation's networks... ♪ ...to our city streets... ♪ ...to skies around the world... ♪

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santorum got to the point where he released a robo-call telling democratic voters to vote for him. since michigan's republican primary is open to all parties. mitt romney did not like the tactic? what are the odds of a tape of mitt romney endorsing that very same practice? >> in massachusetts if you register as an independent, you can vote in either the republican or democratic primary. when there's no real contest in the republican primary, i'd vote in the democrat primary, vote for the person who i thought would be the weakest opponent

for republican. >> what a disgusting thing to do. you have some explaining to do! >> mitt romney plus a mustache equals george hamilton as zorro. >> i'm mitt romney, and i approved this message. >> he looks good there, doesn't he? >> he does. >> he's back. >> somebody's better. >> adorable. >> go to rhode island. >> that was in october. her current rotation is with jimmy fallon. >> much better than here. >> that's great. >> she made her debut. >> yeah. ♪

♪ >> oh, my gosh! >> the segment is called "let us play" and they take someone from the audience. >> what are they dumping, mousse? >> i think is what it was. >> whipped cream? she's so cute! >> she's wonderful. >> we miss jamie. >> mike, my gosh, that guy is horrible. >> not good. >> not good. >> he's talking back. are you kidding me? >> look at that.

jamie would have never talked back. what if anything did we learn today? next. this at&t 4g network is fast.

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you name it...i've hooked it. but there's one... one that's always eluded me. thought i had it in the blizzard of '93. ha! never even came close. sometimes, i actually think it's mocking me. [ engine revs ] what?! quattro!!!!! ♪ what's worse, angela merkel, "a," a waiter spilling five beers all over your shoulders

or, "b," george w. bush giving you an unsolicited shoulder rub? if you guessed "b," you are correct. see you next week on "what's worse, angela merkel." >> time to talk about what we learned today, i learned this friday we have a special, very special "morning joe." it's sort of our "brewing together" series on education. we'll be live at ft. lehigh school in new jersey. joined by governor chris christie, teachers union president randi weingarten, and the reverend al sharpton and many, many more, we love our "brewing together" shows, willie? >> i was there yesterday. >> is it a great place? >> fantastic. while we're plugging, "rock center." >> you're on? >> 10:00 tonight. in the battle of references today, tom brokaw wins the