rundown" with chuck todd. >> tragedy in aftghanistaafghan soldier kills 16 afghan civilians. the u.s. tries to contain the damage with the afghans. is this the last straw for many americans? plus, he's eating the grits. can wehe win the south? mitt romney is hoping a split between the conservative vote will mean good news in either mississippi or alabama or both tuesday. is he overcommitting? high risk/high reward style of campaigning. and the battle over who should get out of the race. the rick santorum and newt gingrich camps square off. this is "the daily rundown." i'm chuck todd. let's get to my first reads of the morning. can mitt romney steal alabama or mississippi? it was a strategy in tennessee and didn't work. but we'll see. romney added a last-minute stop in mobile, alabama this morning, which advisers say was in

recognition of the campaign's belief he could still pick up a win tomorrow. but romney is playing it both ways. also trying to keep expectations in check. last night the romney campaign tipped off local media to an unscheduled stop in jackson, mississippi. but didn't notify the national press corps. at a minimum, romney will wendell gats tomorrow. 47 at stake in alabama. 37 in mississippi. this weekend, though, santorum walked away from the kansas caucuses with 51% of the vote, beat romney by 30 points. santorum came away with fewer delegates. romney won 39 to santorum's 36 in wyoming's county conventions and running the gable in guam, the northern islands and virgin islan islands. romney 337 delegates in his column, santorum moved ahead of gingrich into second place with 146. the romney campaign is now fund-raising on that delegate math. but moments ago on "today," santorum said numbers will not buy romney a win in the

conservative part of the republican party. >> the math is not the issue. the issue is vision. the issue is the governor romney having outspent me 10-1 is still not able to close the deal. >> south carolina senator linds lindsey graham got to the heart of why santorum might be right. >> mathematically, this thing is about over, but emotionally, it's not. i think everybody believes if i could just get a one-on-one romney, i could win this thing. >> and there you have it. and that's why santorum and gingrich just won't get out of this thing any time soon. they both believe that in a one-on-one, they somehow can consolidate the conservative vote. certainly something to keep watching for. for santorum, wins in both alabama and mississippi would prove he is the chief conservative alternative to romney. and that he has the momentum to keep this race going for a long time. losing them would suggest his campaign might be running a little bit out of gas. and for gingrich, winning both

states would keep his candiacy alive. this weekend, the candidates did their best to talk dixie. the message, we're all southerners now. >> i got ken here in mississippi. and i'm not sure -- i'm very proud of it. >> morning, y'all. good to be with you. i got it right this morning with a biscuit and some cheesy grits. >> governor romney yesterday morning tried grits. and i want you to understand as somebody who had represented georgia for a long time, i like grits. i like cheese grits. i like grits with gravy. a number of ways you can have grits. >> i understand cheese grits. i even understand shrimp and grits. >> well, last week the gingrich campaign called both alabama and mississippi must-win primaries. this weekend, gingrich lowered the bar. >> are these must-win states for you, mr. speaker? >> well, the states i want to

win, i think the states we're going to do very well in, we're going to get a lot of delegates in both mississippi and alabama and i think the odds are pretty good we'll win them. >> there you go. the question is if he only wins one, does he still try to find a rationale to stay in the race? santorum, be needling gingrich on his fourth and fifth place finishes, calling him for exit the race. >> the speaker can stay in as long as he wants, but i think the better opportunity to make sure we nominate a conservative is to give us an opportunity to go head-to-head with governor romney at some point. and hopefully that will occur sooner rather than later. >> meanwhile, gingrich, ever the historian, accused romney of being the weakest front runner since 1920. you remember that republican race, don't you? >> yes, he's a front runner, he's not a very strong front runner. almost all conservatives are opposed to him, which is the base of the party. >> it's funny to listen to these guys, if i'm a weak front runner, huh what does that make

newt gingrich? >> there you go. of the retort the campaign will say. very rare you hear it from a mitt romney. by the way this morning, republicans wringing their hands over this drawn-out nomination process. one piece of good news. due to the bad news on gas prices. rising gas prices are taking a toll on the president's approval rating. new washington post abc poll, two-thirds of americans say they disapprove of the way the president is handling the situation at the pump. the dissatisfaction is driving down views of his performance overall. just 38% approve of the way the president is handlin tsing gains he made against the republican candidates who are now even in hypothetical match-ups. today the president goes on offense with his defensive strategy and will give interviews to local anchors in aed markets on what the white house calls his blueprint for a secure energy future. it's a large file they put out this morning. banking the case that progress has been made when it comes to weaning ourselves off of foreign

oil. but that gas price figure is what sticks in the heads of many american consumers. and that's driving things in a way the white house politically is prepared for, but it still stings as it comes. finally, the tragic news in afghanistan. the united states army sergeant is being detained today by fellow troops in afghanistan after american officials say he went on a nighttime massacre over the weekend, killed at least 16 afghan civilians as they slept in their homes. witnesses say nine children were executed. some shot in bed while asleep. the shooter was reportedly on his fourth tour after serving three tours in iraq. the attack comes just three weeks after u.s. troops burn copies of the quran accidentally, triggering deadly riots. u.s. officials are trying to contain the damage there. the president, who was attending his daughter's basketball game in maryland, released a statement saying, quote, this incident is tragic and shocking and does not represent the exceptional character of our military and the respect that the united states has for the

people of afghanistan. the president promised a full investigation, but afghan president ahmed karzai is demanding answers from the u.s. government. 620% of americans say the war has not been worth fighting and criticism of the u.s. mission is coming from hawks. newt gingrich said it was time to leave. and this morning, santorum didn't exactly offer a ringing endorsement of the u.s. presence sticking around there as well. >> i think it's very likely that we have lost -- tragically lost lives and suffered injuries to a considerable number of young americans on a mission that we're going to discover is not doable. >> we have to either make the decision to make a full commitment, which this president has not done, or we have to decide to get out and probably get out sooner. >> even john mccain acknowledged incidents like this one make the war very hard to explain. >> it's one of those things that you cannot explain, except to ex he tend your deepest sympathy to

those victims and see that justice is done. these things in warfare that happen give us all the more reason to have it be avoided. >> well, u.s. troops are bracing for a backlash, as word of sunday's massacre spreads across afghanistan. afghan president karzai called it an assassination and intentional killing of innocents that cannot be forgiven. the taliban has vowed revenge. atia bowie is live for us. i know your weekend reporting indicated this news has actually been traveling very slowly across afghanistan. and so far, there hasn't been this same type of rioting essentially that we had seen before after the quran incident. what can you report this morning? this. >> reporter: hi there, chuck. that's a good observation you made, even with the quran burnings, it did take a day or two until the word spread throughout the country and the crowds came out protesting

against it. we are waiting to see what happens here. the american government, the other embassies throughout afghanistan on edge right now. a notice went out to u.s. citizens within the country to be careful of the backlash that may come from these shootings and these killings. and i'm telling you, chuck, i've seen some of the pictures. when these pictures get out of these young children with bullet holes through their heads going out to different parts of afghanistan, it's not going to bode well to the westerners and the americans throughout afghanistan. we do expect to see protests. we do expect people to step up and speak up. and unfortunately, we expect some violence, as well. already, the parliament in afghanistan decided toel call the day off today and instead they have demanded that a delegation head down to the district where these killings occurred to investigate exactly what happened, because right now, the news is that there was one shooter. but there are afghans who are saying there was more than one shooter, which is obviously going to cause more uproar throughout the afghan communities.

>> and atia, i know it was president karzai that started bringing up this conspiracy that it may have been more than one shooter in his initial reaction. has he backed off of that? >> reporter: well, the initial report said it was more than one shooter came from afghans within the villages that were attacked. some say there was one shooter, others say there are other soldiers they saw. there is a bit of confusion, were there soldiers that came out to look for this one soldier? right now it's a situation we're not -- neither nato or the afghan government can confirm what happened. but president karzai in his release yesterday referred that possibly more than one shooter, but then reminded that it was an individual act. although he did say it was an unforgivable and intentional act. chuck? >> all right, atia abawi, thanks very much. i want to bring in msnbc news military analyst retired army

colonel jack jacobs. there seems to be a number of questions here. >> . the first thing obviously is this appears to be one madman inside the u.s. military. at the same time, when you look at an incident like this, the impact that it has on everybody else serving. give me your reaction. >> well, when you have a large number of americans in one place like afghanistan, anything any of -- any of them does is going to affect, a., the mission, and b., in which the american mission there is viewed. so clearly, this is going to have repercussions. i think it's moving slowly across afghanistan, at least partially because this happened in a very remote area. unlike the burnings of the qurans. so i think you can anticipate a lot of problems going forward. especially in small regions where there's a large concentration of americans trying to convince the afghans to defend themselves. >> colonel, from what you've

heard about this incident, and from what you understand, i guess another question i have, how does a soldier like this, this staff sergeant, make it off of -- make it off-base like this by himself? >> well, very easy. he just leaves. but that brings up a really, really significant question that's going to require a great deal of explanation. when you have people who are living together 100% of the time, as troops do, and you are supervised by somebody who is with you 100% of the time, there is no way you're going to avoid picking up signals that somebody has a problem. a good comparison is a major hasan who killed 13 people at ft. hood in 2009. his supervisors had known for a long time, and even committed to paper the fact that the guy was irresponsible, that there were some problems. he couldn't be trusted and so on. when you're close to somebody, and when you're charged with the

responsibility of supervising somebody, there is no way that something like this is going to come as a big surprise. so -- >> you know -- >> they're going to look at the supervisors, too. >> right. this morning general mccaffrey brought up another point. he said -- and, again, he was speculating here a little bit, because we don't know exactly how the staff sergeant was recruited into the military. but he said if there was a point about ten years ago when the requirements -- the mental checks, the mental stability checks that were put into place for some of these soldiers were lower, essentially. the standards were lowered, and there were a lot of folks let in that maybe in hindsight shouldn't have been let in. do you buy this? >> yes, i do. some years ago, about 100% of our soldiers, sailors, airmen and marines have high school diplomas and now fewer do. general mccaffrey makes a good point and that is when you have a country of over 300 million people with worldwide

responsibilities, you cannot possibly defend it with the very small number of brave young americans who volunteer for services. it's just not going to work. and as a result, you're going to have to lower standards, even though we're lowering the requirement of people, the number of people who we want on active duty for budgetary reasons. it's still extremely difficult to recruit top-grade people in this kind of environment. he's absolutely right. and i think you're liable to see more difficulties of this type, because we don't have adequate supervision and the requisite quality of people in the service. having said that, we've got lots of good people. but some people are not properly supervised. >> and let me ask you about one more piece of information that's come out of this, which the idea that this is -- this gentleman's fourth tour of duty, and not to make an excuse, this is a rampage, there is no excuse for what he did. four tours of duty in the last ten years. this is -- there have been military experts that have been warning that maybe the military

just wasn't properly preparing these soldiers for the type of long-term mental -- the mental toughness you need to withstand four tours of duty like this. >> well, it does sound like an excuse. and there is no excuse for this kind of behavior. but there is a strain that's put on both individuals in units, particularly families, when you send people overseas for extended periods of time for multiple tours. having said that, those of us who are close to people in the military know rangers and s.e.a.l.s and lots of other people who had many more tours and much more time away from home than this guy has had. you're right, it's not an excuse, but you're not going to be able to defend the country, like i said, of this size, with so few people. >> colonel jack jacobs, thanks for coming on and providing your expertise and experience. up next, the square-off.

rick santorum and newt gingrich try to shove each other off the campaign trail, each saying they should be the alternative to romney. the debate ahead. plus bringing out the big guns. president clinton lends a hand to the election campaign. we have an exclusive first look of the powerful part clinton is going to play and is playing in this new obama campaign film. first, a look ahead, the president's schedule, does a whole bunch of local interviews today in preparation. he has a big visit coming later this week from british prime minister david cameron. you're watching msnbc and "the daily rundown." we'll be right back. [ male announcer ] juice drink too watery?

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rick santorum and newt

gingrich aren't buying the romney campaign's argument that they're mathematically out of the race. both men appear to be placing their bets on a contested convention. >> it's a conservative party. they're not going to nominate. if they -- if the opportunity provides itself in an open convention, they are not going to nominate a moderate, massachusetts governor who has been outspending his opponent 10-1 and can't win the election outright. >> romney is probably the weakest republican front runner since leonard wood in 1920, and wood lost in the tenth ballot. and i think we are as likely to see after the last primary in june, we're as likely to see a 60-day conversation about what's going to happen as we are to see romney dominating. >> the 1920 convention, who can forget. alice stuart, kelly ann conway for the gingrich campaign. welcome to both of you. kelly ann, let me start with you. we didn't get quite a straight answer out of the speaker this

weekend about alabama and mississippi. earlier last week, the campaign said got to win 'em both to have a viable, credible path forward as a campaign. is that still the case? >> the speaker himself said this weekend, he said, quote, let me put this to rest once and for all. i'm going to pam tampa. >> so even if he loses, one of these two neighboring states to georgia? >> i think that would be -- that would be fully included in his statement we're going to tampa, yes, just as senator santorum lost in ohio. but in any event, mitt romney had a near-death political experience in his home state of michigan. i know he's got four or five home states, but this is an open race. and i think voters in these states that haven't yet cast a ballot, chuck, have the right to voice their opinion as to who is their nominee should be, just as voters in the previous states have been. but what senator santorum and speaker gingrich are saying is true, it's been true all along

but now many romney supporters and romney supporters in the media have to come to grips with, which is this would be 1996 and 2008 all over again. where you nominate the guy who lost the previous time, not a conservative, conservatives in the party do not think as one them and you lose to a clinton or obama. and conservatives are not going to allow that. so i think an open convention is a dream for many voters and they may get their wish this year. >> alice, let me ask you about -- obviously, you guys wish you would have a full one-on-one with mitt romney. do you think if you win one of these two states, if not both of them, over gingrich, that sends a message, and that you guys will publicly start asking for speaker gingrich to get out? >> well, we will certainly never ask for speaker gingrich to get out. that's up to the people to decide. but more and more we're seeing that the people are speaking their mind. rick has one soften contests so for, virtually tied another and speaker gingrich has a long way

to go to catch up. what we're seeing more than anything, we're seeing the conservative base and grass roots organizers and tea party loyalists rallying behind rick santorum and that's the message we want to get out. this nonsense that the romney campaign is pushing that is mathematically impossible for anyone else to get the nomination is a smokescreen to divert attention away from the fact that he is failing in his efforts to energy oois the base. with all of the money he has and as long as he has been doing this and is the name he has, he should be running away with this. but the fact of the matter is, they are not energizing the base and if it was such a shoe-in, why are they running so many negative campaign ads? it's mathematically impossible for rick santorum to win, given the fact we have a lot of bound and unbound delegates out there that will go to the more conservative candidate. >> i have to say, i understand, and i've read the delegate memo and i get it. no offense to the campaign, but you guys haven't shown an ability to organize at some of these conventions, in a way that

indicates that while you are correct that there are ways to get delegates at some of these conventions that maybe some of them have been by other media outlets allocated that you guys could win over or win more than, say, a romney -- than what romney's vote is, do you guys have the organization to do this? i mean -- >> yes. >> all indications so far, you haven't. >> yes, chuck, and here's why. look at the change narrative just on this very program. we're no longer talking about mitt romney's inevitability. that's a huge victory from a week ago, a month ago, a year ago, five years ago, since that's how long he has been running. and now the narrative is, oh, it's mathematically impossible, because boston loves to push that against both of our campaigns. what's mathematically impossible, chuck, is that a majority, perhaps even a strong plurality of rank and file republican voters are going to think that mitt romney is a conservative between now and that open convention. that's never going to happen. the money and had not thought

romney would go there, so to speak. if you can't win on the issues, you talk about inevitability. you just keep spending money to pound everyone. and i could submit, all of the endorsements and is money are not going to make rank and file voters think he's going to win. he's honey vanilla. you've got to be rocky road. you have to show contrast. >> alice, i want you to sort of answer this issue on organization, because i've heard you make this argument. but organization has been shaky at best in the santorum side of things. and second, if you realize that not only do you split the vote, but you split this ability and romney is going to end up winning more delegates in alabama and mississippi than he normally would have, had you had a clear shot, isn't that factor into your mathematical problems? >> well, romney is the one that has the math problem and it's certainly not an inspiring message for the american people. what we have in the santorum campaign is a growing memo tunnel.

we started out small and look where we are right now. for romney to have the money and the infrastructure he has to be even against the ropes as he is, is a sad state for his campaign. but what we are is a growing campaign, and we've grown as -- we're now in a multi-state primary and caucus situation. we have more volunteers, we have more grass roots organizers coming. so in terms of the infrastructure, that is growing along with the momentum that rick has. and people are seeing that they want someone who is the consistent conservative. we don't need the massachusetts moderate and we don't need a nonconservative from georgia that is not resonating with the people. rick has the growing momentum and the message people want. and the organization is coming right along with the support that we're seeing across the state. and we expect to see that tomorrow in alabama and mississippi and hawaii, as well. >> the gingrich/rick perry rumors, what do you think? >> i think it would be a great ticket. >> are you thinking about doing what reagan did in '76,

announcing a running mate during this process, like -- is that what really -- >> it certainly is possible, chuck. i think it's wise to transport the voter into the first day, first week, first month, first year of the gingrich presidency so we can get out of this process we're in right now. let me respond to gingrich being a nonconservative by alice. i think what's really benefited santorum, he's a strong social conservative. they just presume you're a fiscal conservative. santorum was a fiscal moderate in the senate. newt preprovided billions of surpluses, $1.5 trillion in more debt when rick was in leadership. so i think this -- by the way, i've been in polling for 24 years next month. i have never heard a voter describe himself as i'm a social conservative but a fiscal moderate. there just aren't enough people like that. those are fighting words. >> alice, i gave kelly ann the

first word. you get the last word, alice. >> real quickly. in response to that, one of the biggest issue this year is jobs and the economy and also obama care. we have the speaker, who has written the original draft for individual mandate more than 20 years ago. that's not very conservative. and people are starting to recognize that. sitting on the couch with nancy pelosi and endorsing cap and trade, that's not very conservative. and also supporting the bailouts, that's not conservative. >> well, the bridge to nowhere -- >> what his record is -- >> i've got to leave it there. alice stuart, press secretary for the santorum campaign, kelly ann conway, adviser for gingrich. thank you both. primary day just 24 hours away. what's in store on wall street? market rundown is next. plus, as the republican candidates battle on, the voter confidence index, it shows why president obama is scoring some of his highest points in two years and what does that mean for his chances at re-election.

i'll show you an historical tour. but first, today's trivia question. name the only illinois native to be elected to president of the united states. @chucktodd. be the first to answer. coming up. i love that my daughter's part fish.

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just minutes away from the opening bell means it's time for the market rundown. becky quick, what you got? >> chuck, this week, we are starting with a clean slate. it looks like we're opening relatively flat because people are waiting for the next economic numbers to kind of give us an indication of what's happening with the u.s. economy. first of all, we did hear that gasoline prices over the last two weeks have risen about 12 cents. that brings the national average to $3.81. a lot of questions about what that's been doing to consumers

and how it's affecting their pocket books. the good news out of thelund berg survey, it looks like these places may be beginning to peak at some point. the increases seem like they're starting to slow, at least. we also got some news overnight from china about its latest trade deficit numbers. these numbers came in on saturday, but this is the first opportunity to trade on them. we saw a much wider trade deficit than had been expected and that has people wondering if the slow down in asia is coming a little more quickly than the government officials there had been expecting, or frankly, any of the investors here. and finally, this week is a big one. we're hearing from the federal reserve. they have an fomc meeting tomorrow. and chuck, what's key at this point, whether or not the fed is going to take some of these better economic numbers we have been getting recently, considering the things like the jobs number on friday, is going to be taking that into consideration and what that's going to mean in terms of whether or not they get back involved and offer anymore liquidity, anymore of this quantitative easing.

>> qe3. >> nerdy-nerdy, right? >> it is. but it gives something for ron paul to talk about. of he has been sort of forgot n forgotten. becky, thank you. the deep dive into the voter confidence index. it starts in 30 seconds. in today's deep dive, we're looking at the voter confidence index. it's a proprietary msnbc.com that we've come to rely on quite a bit at the nbc news political unit. what is the vci? a way to measure the level of

confidence voters have in not just the president but his party at any given time. think of it as a dow jones industrial style index of sorts. basically, how popular is the president's party at a time of an election. you can look at past vcis and see how it correlates with election results. not quite a predictor in how a party will do in the election, but a sense of the mood of the country during an election, and it certainly helps explain what happened. our political unit created the index by looking at three commonly asked poll questions from all of the major national surveys, not just ours, like the nbc wall street journal poll but others connected by fox, nbc, reuters, abc, politico, you get it of the just don't use robo polls. we look at what voters think about the direction of the country, and the generic congressional ballot, alwaysf t. a positive number is generally a good sign for a sitting president and his party while a negative number is not. we have calculated vcis for

every president since gerald ford. let's look at what some of the past results have shown. as you can see, gerald ford actually had a positive vci of 25 at election time. that it explains his comeback. carter was at a negative 72 in 1980, right before the election. think landslide. ronald reagan, a positive 62. think another landslide. reagan in ' 88, 15, fairly close election, if you recall, democrats did do pretty well down the ballot. george h.w. bush, a minus 84 in '92. we know what happened there. clinton, '96, 18. clinton, 2000, a 45. a president positive number. democrats won the popular vote, lost the electoral college. bush in '04, a minus 11. bush in 2008, and the republicans a minus 116. so as you can see, it's sort of telling you the undercurrent of where things are. to show you how one poll with change the voter confidence index, let's look at the latest

"washington post" news poll which shows president's approval rating dipping to 46%. this new poll changes the president's vci by a negative five points, changing it from a negative 15 to a negative 20 in our poll. now the take-away by the new vci, although the voter confidence index is not predictive who will win, does provide a frame of reference with how the mood of the country can respond to election results and shows some trend data over the last year. and if you look at it, president's trend data has been moving in the right direction as far as democrats are concerned on the vci. joining me now to talk about president obama's vci is vaughan verber for msnbc.com. all right. so we have had the vci prewashington post poll and we don't have all of the data fully in. it's why we don't technically calculate it. right now it sits at a minus 15. and this shift over the past month has been quite dramatic over the past two or three months. >> yeah, just the past month, the trend line is clear.

the lowest point of the president's term thus far came in september. what was going on in september? well, we had just had the debt ceiling fight, we had just had a lot -- the economic news had not been looking as good as pebe. so you r syse there of -- >> great graphic here, seeing the longest blue line that was debt ceiling. >> yep. that was after months and months of all of this. it wasn't just the debt ceiling. we had fights going into the spring, all through the summer. so you you saw the nation's confidence in government, basically, really lag. and who does that accrue to? that's going to accrue to the president. now, since that point in time, we've gotten better economic news, things -- the outlook has brightened a bit and you complain that with the republican primary contest and you've seen a really steady climb for the president. >> and there's a reason we picked those three numbers that we picked. first of all, pollsters universally do ask them, and ask them, and it's the least sort of biased way of taking poll data ask trying to aggregate it a little bit.

but obviously, the president is the president. and it does -- you know, we know how that gets affected. but right direction, wrong track tells us the mood of the electorate. and then the generic ballot can tell us sort of which party is in this case -- which party is more down, since everybody seems to be down on both. the right direction, wrong track. some will say, hey, it's the only number you need. >> well, that's true. but i think if you take these three numbers together, it gives you a deeper data set. and also, when you look forward, not just in a presidential election, we originally designed this last -- in the last election cycle for the congressional elections for the mid terms, because, you know, that -- the right track, wrong track doesn't necessarily correlate to that when you put in, you know, congressional generic ballot question. it gives you more of a sense of the parties and how they're faring, not just the president. because they're not always equal in people's minds. >> and what's interesting, when we look at this, bush won with a negative. but it was a small negative. so it shows you that -- i think we're starting to learn, there is a range here, anywhere minus

15 to plus 15 in that range, then it's a winnable or election for either party. that's sort of whether when we're in coin flip territory. >> you have to take into consideration what's going on. not an election about the economy, it was a national security election, very close election in any event. but it was really dominated by the wars in iraq and afghanistan. i think what's more important, like in any poll, the same thing applies here, looking at the trend line. is it going up or is it going down? not necessarily the very last number. >> we have trended it all the way back for the entire obama presidency but also have done these snapshots for all these presidents. nbcpolitics.com. we're going to have apps, all sorts of fancy stuff. it's already there. the map is already there, too. you can see -- it's all there. nbcpolitics.com might be the most traveled political site. >> it might be. >> we know it is. you can get the latest updates on the vci, and all the latest, of course, at msnbcpolitics.com.

it's all there. up next, an exclusive first look at a role former president bill clinton is playing in president obama's re-election fight. we'll check it out with our political panel. but first, of course, white house soup of the day. greek lentil stew. i keep thinking they will wait until the greeks fully take this economic peril off the table before serving anymore greek stew. but we'll see. you're watching "the daily rundown." put a little feta on it. ♪ -one. -two.

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the two trains and a bus rider. the "i'll sleep when it's done" academic. for 80 years, we've been inspired by you. and we've been honored to walk with you to help you get where you want to be. ♪ because your moment is now. let nothing stand in your way. learn more at keller.edu. on thursday, the obama campaign will release their 17-minute campaign film called "the road we've traveled". it con cells they believe the president's most significant achievements and most notably the capture and kill of osama bin laden. in a first look at this new excerpt, the vice president describes the moments after the president heard from his entire national security team, and then

we hear from another democratic voice, whose active support could be key to the president's effort at re-election in some rust belt states. take a listen. >> as he walked out the room, it dawned on me, he's all alone. this is his decision. >> he took the harder and the more honorable path. when i saw what had happened, i thought to myself, i hope that's the call i would have made. >> bill clinton. i hope that's the call i would have made. my panel today, msnbc contributor jeff johnson, also executive editor of politics365.com. susan page, and dan balz with "the washington post." bill clinton. i hope it's the call i would have made. you know, it is -- this is an un -- we know that the relationship between the two is -- it's at least a friendly

rivalry, as i think that presidents of the same party -- can't help themselves. >> it's more than a friendly rivalry, it was a real rivalry four years ago at this time. the relationship between the two was quite strained. and it's gotten better, obviously, and the president has turned to the former president in some difficult moments, he did it after the 2010 election. so it's not surprising he's trying to bring him in on this. >> this is different, though. this is bill clinton deciding, i am going to come out and not just say i'm in favor of, but he's doing the kind of things that i would hope i would have done when i was in office. that -- >> serving as a verifier on the presidency. >> not something we heard before. >> how important do you think it is to voters? >> incredibly important. because there is an excitement level issue with even president obama's base -- >> have you noted you've been traveling -- >> sure. it's not an issue they don't support the president. and there are a ton of people i think are very excited about the

president. let's not discount that. but there are -- that are with the economy looking the way it is, gas prices looking the way they are. are going to look for something to excite them. and for many of them, bill clinton could be that tool. >> you know, susan page, it does strike me, there is this odd problem the obama campaign can't use hillary, because of the way it works. secretaries of state -- you don't serve as -- you know. i think bush always struggled that he couldn't figure out how to use colin powell, and they wanted to in that 2004. obviously, bill clinton will be the surrogate of choice for them on these -- on these things. important for the obama folks, isn't it? >> and they have the minimum complicated relationship. look who bill clinton could help obama with, with those noncollege educated white, those blue collar workers that president obama has always struggled to connect with, and that are so important in those rust belt states, and mitt romney has trouble connecting with. so they'll be in play.

they haven't been the critical part of the electorate for barack obama in 2008. they could be more important in 2012. >> let's move to the republican race. dan balz, i want to show this illinois poll, "chicago tribune" poll over the weekend, i believe illinois is an old home state of yours. >> it's my only home state. >> romney, 35, trum 31. gingrich 12, paul 7. by the numbers, financially, they're playing big-time in those two southern states. but it seems that the romney campaign is sort of, well, we thought we could do well in tennessee and we didn't. are we about to get burned again. >> well, they may well get burned. but i think because a lot of people expect they will not do particularly well, even if these polls have looked pretty good, they may be able to escape the south, particularly if they can conjure up enough delegates. but illinois is a very important race, as michigan was and as ohio was. and you would think that he would be the favorite in that state.

the combination of a large suburban area outside of chicago where he has done well. so you would expect them. but they're going to have another tough week. >> and those primaries in illinois have nominated conservatives. >> this has been -- and it's been a critical state. but i don't think he gets off scot-free out of alabama and mississippi. it reinforces the concern people have that he can't appeal to the gop base. >> that's why stealing one with 33% -- >> a win -- and a big loss for his rivals, santorum and gingrich, they need wins tuesday more than mitt romney does. you see mitt romney making the same calculation in alabama and mississippi that he made in iowa and south carolina before. >> and even tennessee so a lesser extent. >> that's right. where he wants to wait before really investing or seeming to invest until he's sure he can have a good showing. >> what do you think of his cheesy grits? that seemed a weird thing -- >> i don't think it plays. >> yeah. >> at the end of the day, if i'm a southern grit-eater -- there's

not a lot of integrity in it. i think it goes back to in many cases the same thing people have been saying about him from cases what people said about him in the beginning, that i don't believe him. it doesn't play well. i think we have seen it is not playing well. >> after the break i want to talk about john boehner's newest latin term. it makes bob latin blush. trivia, we asked the only illinois native to be elected president. dan balz, you knew the answer, right? ronald reagan was born in the small town of tampeco, illinois. illinois also lays claim to two other presidents, grant and obama. they were born in ohio and hawaii respectively. we'll be right back. ugar than leading regular juice drinks. because less sugar is a better way to fly. ♪ just not literally.

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let's bring back the panel

now. peggy noonan did an interview with john boehner, and he can be more colorful off the record than on the record, but he talked about the republican angst. he said, quote, ied to them they have ocular recktitis. that's when your eyes get confused with your butt and it develops into an unnecessarily fecal outlook of life. this is the problem he's dealing with, the angzity of the base, feeling like they are not getting anything done. the leadership who realizes, we have to be careful here or we are going the lose our leadership. >> the tea party wanting change faster than they are getting it. talk about tough jobs in washington, president obama has a tough job. john boehner has a politically

tough job keeping the party together. they are looking at gaining the senate, which they thought was a done deal, looking tougher. the white house, a couple months ago looked like president obama looked more vulnerable than he does now, he has to hold the people together. >> do the democrats have the alternative vision yet on a congressional level? or do they just sort of tie with the president? >> i think they are tied too much to the president to differentiate themselves. so, no, it's going to be challenging going forward if they are going to be able to do that. >> john boehner, if he loses too many house member seats but keeps control, is his speaker ship still in control? >> i think he'll still feel cantor. >> do you feel he leads that way? >> i feel he led defensively. he's tried some things and has been hauled back. he's on this reel and they keep jerking him back when he gets

too far out there. >> shameless plugs, i have to go. >> shameless plug, just joined 365. >> i thought it was a mistake. >> alyssa menendez has a great article out running for the house seat. please check it out. >> 366 days this year. >> yes. >> david koran has a new book coming out next week called "showdown." >> and i'm plugging "the daily run down's" anna who is running a 2 1/2 marathon on tuesday. >> more power to her. we'll sew see you back tomorrow. primary day in the south. chris jansing is coming up next.

i'm meteorologist bill karins with your business travel forecast. big huge wind maker moving onshore in the pacific northwest. that's one storm there. the other one is heading through the midwest. watch out near chicago to grand rapids with strong thunderstorms likely today. also a chance of an isolated strong storm near atlanta, detroit, those storms roll your way late tonight. on the west coast, the northwest storm, a lot of wind.

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you're up! oh! oh! so close! now where were we? ok, this one's good for two. score! [ male announcer ] share what you love with who you love. kellogg's frosted flakes. they're gr-r-eat! ♪ you are me i'm jennifer hudson and i believe. i was strong before weight watchers, but i'm stronger with it. i believe weight watchers can do the same for you. i believe you have more power than you think you do. i believe because it works. ♪ if you want it you got it your turn. your time. your year. [ female announcer ] join now for free. hurry, offer ends march 24th. weight watchers points plus 2012. because it works. good morning. i'm chris jansing. an already volatile situation for american troops in