tomorrow. stick around right now for "the daily rundown" with our good friend chuck todd. ah, can today's southern primaries do what super tuesday couldn't? win the field or even end the race? it all depends on who wins. what could be three-way squeakers in mississippi and alabama. mitt romney hopes the santorum/gingrich split vote means he could sneak a victory in dixie. for the second day in a row we get a national poll that finds president obama's approval rating slipping as gas prices continue to soar. the white house very defensive on this issue. is there more to these poll results than meet the eye. and the fallout grows after that tragic killing spree in afghanistan. protests on the rise in afghanistan, and here at home pressure builds on the president to bring the troops home. has war fatigue among americans reached an actual tipping point? it's tuesday, march 13th, it's

2012, it's southern super tuesday. this is "the daily rundown," i'm chuck todd. a romney victory tonight in either alabama or mississippi would knock fence sitters off the fence. if gingrich loses either of these southern states, where can he win and where does he go. ahead of today's contest the candidates have declared themselves adopted sons of the south. for these northern republicans and even the supposed southerner in the race, newt gingrich, who by the way was born and raised in pennsylvania, the dixie talk has not exactly come naturally. >> morning, y'all. >> i got kin here in mississippi and i'm not sure i -- i'm very proud of it. >> there must not be anybody left at walmart this afternoon. >> i've been getting hugs from the southern girls and from 12 to -- well, a lot more than 12. >> i hear you've got the best grits here. >> i like grits, i like cheese grits, i like grits with gravy.

there are a number of ways you can have grits. i even understand cheese grits. i even understand shrimp and grits. >> can you wait for shrimp to say shrimp scampi, shrimp on the barbecue. romney stumped with jeff foxworthy and then attempted to praise alabama and auburn football, but ole mitt romney kinda put his foot -- his football foot in his mouth again. >> i don't want to see him go to miami or to the jets, but i've got a lot of good friends. the owner of the miami dolphin and the new york jets, both owners are friends of mine. >> well, there you go. romney talking about peyton manning there, that was the topic of conversation. romney has attended fund-raisers hosted by woody johnson and dolphins owner, one of romney's top fund-raisers and frequently travels to romney for campaign events. for santorum or gingrich, a sweep would provide the needed momentum they need and quiet

critics who wonder if this has been over for a while. neither shows any sign of planning to get out no matter what happens tonight. >> we've been running a marathon breathing through a swizzle stick. but that's what it's felt like. i mean we're just -- we're just sucking hard on that swizzle stick trying to get as much air as we can in to keep ourselves alive. >> we stay in the race for two reasons. i do not believe the other two candidates can beat obama and i believe this race is the most important in our lifetime, and i will not believe the field. >> boy, swizzle sticks. but gingrich, who says he's going all the way to tampa did do his best to lower expectations. >> what does it mean tomorrow night if you win by just a point or two or lose by a point or two? >> well, in either case it would be so close that we'd be moving forward. everybody would move forward. >> well, newt, finding a rationale to stay in the race

despite moving the bar as his campaign team has done. how likely is it that mitt romney could steal a run in the south tonight? somehow the bar has been raised for romney and there's hope among republicans that he'll exceed expectations and pull off a surprise win in the race tonight. could he do it? romney himself has been trying to have it both ways. >> we're going to win tomorrow and need your help. >> do you get a sense that you have to win one of the two southern states up for grabs tomorrow, mississippi and alabama? does your campaign need that? >> no, absolutely not. john mccain didn't win either of these states. >> the romney campaign is banking on santorum and gingrich splitting 60 to 65% of the vote, muddying the waters enough to romney to pull out a win. take a look at these numbers. in the four culturally southern states, south carolina, tennessee, oklahoma and georgia, romney has not cracked 28%.

look at those percentages. 28, 28, 28, 26. in the south he's only cracked double digits once back in south carolina. we'll see. romney folks are oddly optimistic that maybe they can pull something off. who knows. i still -- i've told you earlier, late last week i thought mississippi more of a chance than alabama if you look at the history of the republican primaries but delegatewise it's more important for the romney folks to win second place in alabama than it is in mississippi. they can win more delegates winning third in mississippi than third place in alabama. check out these numbers. 65% of the ads run in the last month in alabama and mississippi have been paid for by romney super pac restore our future of his super pac has spent $2.2 million compared to just

$234,000 in spending by the campaign itself. restore our future has run ten time as many ads in alabama as romney's campaign and campaign hasn't aired a single ad in mississippi. risen to his dire warnings yesterday about a contested convention. >> look, if we go all the way to a convention, we would be -- we would be signaling our doom in terms of replacing president obama. we are not going to go until the end of august to select a nominee and have campaign working during a convention. can you imagine anything that's a bigger deficit to barack obama? >> although there's been speculation that the race might end with romney/santorum, elevating santorum into the number two spot, after yesterday that looks unlikely. >> if you were to become the nominee of your party, sir, you would almost have to put a conservative, a real -- i know you say you're conservative

yourself, but even to the right of you on your ticket. >> well, that would preclude, of course, rick santorum. his record does not suggest that he has the fiscal conservative chops that i have. >> fascinating that romney went right there and said precludes santorum. there are 47 delegates at stake in alabama, 37 in mississippi. polls close at 8:00 p.m. by the way, alabama, if you carry less than 50% of the vote you get two of the three delegates. mississippi it's ought proportional there action even within the congressional districts. that's why third place is really bad in alabama, third place in mississippi actually not so bad. finally, if you have any doubt we're in the middle of an election year, the president is taking british prime minister to dayton, ohio, to watch the ncaa first four matchups.

they'll do an interview there. meanwhile a new poll shows a drop in the president's approval. it's now 41%. 50% disapprove of his job performance. obama's approval number was nine points higher just a month ago. the swing raises a question, what major intervening events occurred in the last month to account for the drop. one culprit could be gas prices which 57% of americans believe the president should be able to do something about. in a series of interviews with local anchors, the president was on the defensive on this issue. >> there are a lot of things we can do, whether it translates immediately in lower gas prices at the pump, the biggest contributor right now to that is rumors of war in the middle east, which is part of the reason i said a couple weeks ago let's stop with the loose talk about war. >> and that's the second intervening event if you look. still, a little bit of a head

scratcher there. 41% job approval but yet getting 47 in a matchup with romney in the same poll. anyway, in an interview with the des moines affiliate, obama addressed critics who say the white house is engaged in a war on religion. >> obviously my own personal faith is very important to me. i think the proper role here is to recognize that faith-based groups can do a lot of good out there. that forms our values and who we are as a people. but when we start using religion as a bludgeon in politics, when we start questioning other people's faith, we start using religion to divide instead of bring the country together, then i think we've got a problem. >> all the states the president carried in the midwest, both agriculture and industrial parts of the midwest, the place where he's weakest right now is the state of iowa. let's get right to kelly o'donnell covering the santorum

campaign. he's in another southern state, louisiana, outside santorum's election night headquarters in lafayette. the louisiana primary is later this month. i believe on the 24th. but still keeping a southern flavor to things tonight, kelly. >> reporter: absolutely. well, we've been in alabama, mississippi. for rick santorum, he will have his party here tonight. he has a tendency to like leap ahead a bit in the media market for the next contest down the line and it's been part of the santorum approach of sort of grinding it out and being in places where some of the other candidates are not necessarily devoting as much ground game time. he has found that to be successful so far. one of the things that has stood out to me in the last couple of days too is how he is really taking on mitt romney on the mathematical formula of delegate math and delegate advantage that romney certainly now has, telling audiences and supporters that it is really not about math, it's about a vision,

trying to sort of chip away at this idea of an inevitability. for example, his big win on kansas on saturday that didn't get as much of the attention, there again because romney got more delegates in all of the contests. today santorum's eldest daughter, elizabeth, is in hawaii where they're also voting today and getting a sense of putting the family on the map there as well. he's also talked about his campaign as the nice campaign. with some of the things that santorum has said along the way, that might not be the first word that comes to mind, but he's trying to characterize himself as being someone who's in touch with someone on the ground, meeting people more than the romney style he says, chuck. >> and kelly, you've watched santorum for a while an during the early primaries, he can get caught on the stump getting sucked into process too much. have you noticed that in the last couple of days? you mentioned that he talks

about the delegate math. is he talking more process than message? >> reporter: well, he has a bit of that senator time that comes out where i think people who are working on a campaign that's behind get consumed a bit about how do they get out of being in the second wave or the second tier, so you do get some of that. what i think is also stabbnding out is he is spending less time on the social issues that in some ways brought him favorable and negative attention in the last couple of weeks, focused on things like the president's health care plan that he calls obama care. trying to position himself as the clearer conservative against what he calls a moderate in mitt romney. so you do get some of that. the nature of the race, of course, does involve process. and because romney is talking delegates, santorum is too. he's trying to cast himself with someone as a bigger approach, a bigger vision for the country that people can grab onto. it will be interesting to see how well he does tonight. certainly critical for him to do well in the south.

we were surprised to see romney getting a lot of attention too. when i've talked to voters, they say they like all three, referring to gingrich, santorum and romney. >> it looks like you have a swamp behind you. there's a green thing behind you that could be a gator. i'm just gag. anyway, kelly, thanks very much. the polls have been open for about an hour. john, it's been interesting if you just worried about win, place or show, the romney folks think they'd have a better shot in mississippi than alabama, but alabama is about delegates and that's where they have been spending a lot more time. >> reporter: that's right. romney was here yesterday making a last-minute stop in alabama. they think if santorum and gingrich continue to split the conservative vote, they have a chance of sneaking in. but newt gingrich has been the

one who has been placing a lot of emphasis on alabama. he's the one candidate who is still here today, still making appearances, a speech to a local chamber of commerce, one of his favorite activities is going to the birmingham zoo this afternoon. as a kid, he wanted to be a zoo keeper. his wife, clallista is here and he is putting a lot of emphasis on alabama. he says he's going to continue on no matter what, of course. he says he doesn't have to win here but the body language suggests that they are really suggesting to do well or are hoping to do well. to emphasize that point, that they are going on to tampa to the convention no matter what. yesterday they released a schedule for the next couple of days showing him going to illinois tomorrow to continue campaigning for the primary, which is a week from today in illinois. chuck. >> and, john, it's always interesting, we know santorum will be in louisiana, we've got romney in missouri tonight.

gingrich is going to be where? >> reporter: he will be here in another suburb of birmingham called hoover. he'll be here in alabama. so i think they really are hoping -- they have high hopes for alabama and it may be really a decision or sort of a turning point of whether he has the rationale for this campaign to continue, whether or not he wins here tonight. >> you always learn a lot about where the candidates spend their election night. john, good stuff, sir, thank you. up next, can romney pull off a surprise win in any of these states that he's not supposed to? we'll show you why romney is facing an uphill climb in alabama and mississippi today. plus the massacre of afghan civilians by a u.s. soldier has a lot of people rethinking the longest war. what does the country's war weariness mean for our future involvement in other places, be it syria or iran? that's our deep dive later.

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well, can mitt romney silence his critics and put a southern state in his win column, or will today's primaries in alabama and mississippi be like charlie brown and the football, give his rivals a boost to go on. joining me now, republican strategist, henry barber, a lot

of experience in southern states, particularly running campaigns in mississippi. mr. barber, nice to talk to you. from burbank -- thanks for taking a break for me. when you look at these stateses are and i'm just read some percentages here. south carolina, oklahoma, georgia, tennessee, culturally southern states, if you will. the romney percentages, 28, 28, 28, 26. why do we believe tonight will be any different and romney will break 30? >> well, people in mississippi really want to get rid of obama. i think what romney gives us is an electability issue. people think he can win. he can win swing voters. we are afraid newt gingrich and rick santorum would really struggle in november against obama. if we don't make the race about obama's record and we get off on other issues, we're going to really struggle in november. so it's about electability mostly. >> you know, we did a few other things looking at the exit polls and all the states romney has

won versus all the states romney has lost. the states that he's won, there have been a majority of the voters have been college graduates. in the states that he's lost, it averages under that. the biggest number to me that jumps out is that it's usually in the 60s, the evangelical christian number is in the 60s in these states that he's lost, mostly the southern states, but throw iowa in as well. the alabama/mississippi profile, 42% college graduates, 77% evangelicals. mississippi 38% college grads, 69% evangelicals. it's sort of a recipe for romney not getting to 30. let me ask you the religion question. is that a possibility that sort of holds him back from getting over 30? >> i don't think so, chuck. i think people are worried about jobs and the economy in both mississippi and alabama, like most of the rest of the country. and i think that's the issue that's driving folks.

i do think that newt gingrich and rick santorum came into this week expecting to win, and they certainly are the heavy favorites. romney is the underdog. but he's got good organization on the ground. he's run a good campaign. he's focused on jobs and the economy. so we feel like we've got a shot at pulling an upset. we've got a shot. >> if you get one win and, you know, and i'll ask you in a minute which state you think is a better shot for romney, mississippi or alabama and i know delegate math is a different question, but if one win gets into the romney column tonight, does that get the remaining fence sitters, i'm thinking about your uncle, lindsey graham, jeb bush, there is some prominent republicans that have stayed off of the bandwagon for now. i've heard some people tell me just win a southern state and i'll be there for you, mitt romney. >> i think it does. i do think that newt gingrich and rick santorum both need to sweep mississippi and alabama

tonight. one of them is not going to do it for sure, if not both of them. so if romney could pull off an upset in one of those states, i would say newt and santorum don't have a viable path to victory and the drum beat will get louder and louder, let's move on, let's focus on obama's failed record an win this thing. >> what do you tell conservatives who say romney, does he need to prove himself with a clean shot, a one-on-one with one of these two guys down the road, be it in illinois, be it in texas, be is in some of these places that haven't voted yet. >> well, however it plays out, i think romney can do very well one on one against gingrich or santorum. the romney campaign has done a great job of staying on message, talking about the jobs and economy day in and day out, whereas newt's campaign a week ago says they're going to drop out of the race if they don't win mississippi and alabama.

a day later they say we're not sure, we'll probably stay in and now they say they're going to stay in until tampa, so they're all over the map. we need a consistent messenger to lead our ticket. >> what do you make of this gingrich/rick perry talk? >> well, i love rick perry. whatever rick perry can do to help take on washington i'm for. i'm sure when governor romney is the nominee, he'll reach out to governor perry. >> if you were to pick which state romney has a better shot at, mississippi or alabama. >> mississippi i would say. we have all seven of the republican state elected officials, including the governor and lieutenant governor and those organizations are helping on the ground. there's real organization in mississippi and i think that gives us an advantage in mississippi to maybe pull an upset. >> is it the more establishment a businessman candidate can get

out in mississippi. >> that traditionally has been true. that's right, chuck. >> henry barbour getting up early for me while on vacation. i appreciate it. go enjoy your family and my apologies for interrupting. wall street is holding its breath as the fed gets ready to make an announcement on the country's economic outlook. the market outlook is next. and a potential game changer. as voters go to the polls, new setbacks for two states in their very strict voter i.d. laws. but first, today's trivia question. who was the first foreign leader to visit president reagan after his inauguration. tweet me the answer. the first correct answer gets a follow us tuesday. i love that my daughter's part fish.

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members of the syrian opposition are accusing syrian troops of rounding up dozens of civilians in the city of homs and executing them. the dead reportedly include women and children. the syrian government is denying involvement and they are blaming this massacre on so-called terrorists. an egyptian brokered cease-fire has stopped violence between the israelis and palestinians. four days of attacks and counterattacks killed at least two dozen people involved. a federal court will now decide the fate of a new texas law requiring voters to show voter i.d. on monday the justice department said it was blocking the law. a judge in wisconsin has struck down that state's voter i.d. ruling that its unconstitutional. we'll talk more about that later in the show. and former florida congressman alan grayson escaped unharmed after he ran a red light and slammed into a bus. two people on the bus suffered

minor injuries. dprason was on his way to a fund-raiser when the accident occurred. the opening bell rings on wall street in six seconds. becky quick, what do you want to hear from the fed? >> reporter: you know, it is just shaking that opening bell right now. it looks like we'll ep up about 50 points. i'd like to hear what they think about the economy and these numbers coming in. you know if you've been watching the fed closely they have told us they are not planning on raising interest rates until 2014 unless the economic data starts to improve. sure enough, if you've been watching some of these numbers coming in recently, they have been improving, specifically and especially that jobs number that we got back on friday. that was the third month in a row of stronger than expected gains, i should say. obviously unemployment is still sitting up there at 8.3%, but these jobs numbers have been impressive. they have been surprising economists and investors. now the fed has to take this into account and tell us if that 2014 still looks like they'll be

holding off for that long. obviously bernanke is not going to come out and say just that, but the market will be listening very closely to anything that the statement says that would allude to these better-than-expected numbers. there's still a debate as to whether gdp is growing. retail sales were up 1.1%. the strongest gain since last september. we also heard from small businesses. the national association of small business out with its optimism survey and that showed the biggest jump in a year so basically the trend feels like things have been getting a little bit better. >> the only thing harder to deal with than diplo speak is fed speak. we'll be back in 30 seconds with a look at the far-reaching consequences of america's long war in afghanistan.

well, in our deep dive today, president obama and british prime minister david cameron meet this thing. they are going to discuss the war in afghanistan following the murder of 16 civilians and calls to bring troops home sooner rather than later. incidents are also boosting public opposition to both the afghan war effort and to the prospects of any other military conflict. for his part the president vowed that the u.s. won't speed up its withdrawal despite this shooting spree by a u.s. soldier. >> i think it's important for us to make sure that we get out in a responsible way so that we don't end up having to go back

in or deal with al qaeda resurgent and potentially launching attacks against us. so we try to create a responsible pathway for an exit, whereby the end of 2014 we'll have all our troops out. >> but discussions about an altered timetable are already under way following a string of incidents that have inflamed tensions between afghans and u.s. troops. just two months ago images surfaced showing u.s. troops urinating on fighters. then the burning of koran sparked vie leaolent protests. so far the response to sunday's shootings near kandahar have been less intense but the administration remains concerned as news does travel slowly in that country. remember, it was president obama who campaigned on ending the iraq war and shift to afghanistan. he did raise troop level in

afghanistan. simultaneously announcing a timeline to end u.s. involvement by 2014. >> i am convince that he had our security is at stake in afghanistan and pakistan. it is from here we were attacked 9/11 and it is from here that new attacks are being plotted as i speak. >> but that has hamstrung but a weak government. nearly 1800 americans have now been killed in afghanistan. that's about half of them over the past two years. more than 15,000 have been wounded and well over $400 billion has been spent during the past decade. the president's republican rivals say it's time to take a look at a new strategy and maybe even come home sooner than you think. >> we should on a regular basis reassess what's happening in afghanistan and any place where we have activity going on and assess what's the right course forward. >> i think the current situation with the president putting a timeline in place has made a

very winnable operation very, very difficult. >> our own nbc news wall street journal poll shows the number of americans who view the war as a success has fallen to just 57%. that's down from 62% last may and that was down from numbers earlier. as americans become more frustrated with the war in afghanistan, they're showing less tolerance for any military conflicts. when asked if the u.s. should intervene in syria, more than two-thirds of the public said they should send humanitarian aid or do nothing at all. only 13% said get involved. 11% said arm the opposition. on the topic of iran, only 21% thought the u.s. should take direct military action. another 26% said support israel doing it. but a majority on the other side. joining me now, former assistant secretary of state, p.j. crowley. p.j., we have a war weary nation. i think that's pretty obvious. the question is when it comes to

afghanistan, do you let incidents like this drive the overall policy? >> well, first of all, public opinion has to support to be able to sustain these kinds of operations. we have been at war ten years. in truth we've been at war 20 years going back to the first gulf war in 1991. i think the public is right to be skeptical. you know, for example, we'll see more libyas before we see another iraq or afghanistan. limited objective, specific limited troop commitment or limited military commitment. >> what you're describing to me sounds interesting. it sounds like we're going back to i would call it i guess the powell, bush 41, jim baker era of foreign policy but it all had the vietnam hangover. are we going to have an afghanistan hangover. listening to both romney now and obama that makes u.s. foreign

policy in general, i guess, more cautious? >> i think we need to be careful about the vietnam parallels. we have reached a tech moment where we're now public opinion towards afghanistan is in permanent decline. and the stage is set for, you know, exit stage right. i think the danger here is actually we're reaching an iraq moment. we are at risk of staying too long, so long that we in trying to achieve narrow short-term objectives, we jeopardize the long-term partnership that was premised behind the intervention in iraq and the intervention in afghanistan. >> now, one of the reasons we're in afghanistan that nobody ever talks about is simply because of the issue of pakistan. this fear that pakistan's instability, they are a nuclear nation. if we have an unstable country right next door in afghanistan run by the taliban, potentially open up to al qaeda-style terrorists, then that could seep over into pakistan and that's an

unstable government -- >> and that's the element of the strategy that really nobody focuses on. >> it's a complicating portion of it. >> there is an existing ramp to complete the combat mission by 2014, but then there's supposed to be a shift not only to continue the training of the afghan forces but to establish a presence to be able to enforce whatever political arrangement exists between the taliban and the afghan government and to continue to have pressure on insurgents on either side of the border, afghanistan or pakistan. that is the secret -- the long-term presence is the secret to getting back to why we're in afghanistan in the first place, which is prevent it from being a safe haven for an attack against the u.s. going forward. >> can we go to the pakistan question a minute. why is it that the first public inn stint of the pakistani government was to say who helped the u.s. with the mission with bin laden. is that a domestic political issue that they manage and maybe

privately they did wonder how did this happen but publicly have to say something else? >> it is out of embarrassment. you have the most respected institution in pakistan is its military. >> perhaps the only universally respected. >> and for them to not know bin laden was there and obviously not know that the united states was poised to attack there. the problem in pakistan is we have two wars going on where we need one joint battle. you have pakistan, which has taken significant action and casualties doing things in recent years. you also have this alleged drone program. we need to merge those together because right now we have a situation where we're fighting a war in pakistan. the pakistanis are pretending we're not. >> or criticizing us for it. >> and that's inflaming pakistani public opinion, which actually is at the heart of the long-term challenge of terrorism and the united states. >> let me switch gears. you talked about a libya-style

solution and i've talked about this with others on the show but i want to hear your explanation of why a libya-style solution may not apply to syria, or does it? >> the preconditions in libya were a strong arab league invitation to intervene, a security council resolution that made it legitimate and legal and then an alliance in nato with multiple countries, including the united states, willing to take on that burden. we may well get to that point. but right now military intervention is seen as not the optimal. the preference is pressure. but at some point in time if this continues, the military option might be the least bad option available. >> and we saw secretary clinton was with the russian foreign minister yesterday. obviously we're guessing syria came up. the russians, if they ever back off and say fine, we'll abstain, does that open the door? >> that will be a tremendous get. i doubting the russians are going to go there but that's where the arab league will play a pivotal role.

>> i could sit here and do this another ten minutes but i have to go. our southern super tuesday panel joins me next. first, the white house soup of the day. minestrone. you're watching "the daily rundown" only on msnbc.

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daily flashback. in 1868 an impeachment trial of the american president began. an jew johnson went on trial with the chief justice presiding. the senate fell one vote shy of the two-thirds majority needed to convict. on this southern super tuesday mitt romney is trying to build up his delegate count for the nomination. while rick santorum is arguing that it's still anyone's game. >> the reality of the situation is that if this race continues

on its current pace, it's going to be very difficult for anyone to get to the number of delegates that is necessary to win with a majority at the convention. i think that's what the math is pretty much showing. >> let's bring in the panel. democratic strategist and go vote.com had tor jamal simmons. jackie kucinich. welcome, all. mr. musser. >> yes. >> 28, 28, 28, 26, 28. south carolina, oklahoma, georgia, tennessee. have expectations gotten out of hand for romney? last week it was like he might win tennessee and shut the race down. >> this is a four-way primary, chuck. you're supposed to get 60% in every contest? >> all of a sudden there's chatter that you guys can win one of these two states.

i'm just saying the evidence in the south has been you can't even crack 30. so aren't you being hurt by these expectations? that's my question for you. >> well, look, gingrich was up 20 in some private polls i saw in mississippi about a week ago. so the fact is this is a razor-close race. no one really knows how it's going to play out. but romney has been there. i've spent a lot of time working in this region. i was a consultant to the alabama republican party in 2010. he's showed up. he's closed strong on the economy and he's a good shot to win this. i'd be surprised if he wins both but he has a shot at winning one. >> jamal simmons, in democratic primaries race matters and in republican primaries, religion matters. here's what the alabama governor said about mormonism yesterday. >> do you think mitt romney's religion will be an issue in your state, governor? >> well, i think that's a very subtle issue that probably may

be a problem in many states, not just in alabama. but i do believe republicans are looking to see who can win the presidency, and they're going to look at that more than anything else. >> you know, jamal simmons, when we've done this question in some of these southern states, we've asked do you believe mormonism is christianity and it's usually about 50-50. about half do not believe it's christianity and obviously romney does less well with those. alabama 77% of republicans describe themselves as evangelical christians, in mississippi, it's 69%. the numbers speak that it could be very tough for him. >> absolutely. i went to college and spent most of my political career in the south. even in a democratic primary, religion counts. when you think about some of the people that have come out of these states, even bill clinton. bill clinton usually did pretty well because of his time in arkansas. i think it's going to cost romney something. >> is it two points, three

points, whatever? >> it's impossible to measure. >> it doesn't matter if it's really, really close. that's the thing. those points here and there start to really count when you're looking at what was ohio, like a percentage point? >> here's something else i've noticed. i'm curious about in the initial exit polls it feels like romney's number gets overstated. you see him polling over 30 in southern states and the number never is. i'm starting to wonder does romney get overstated and more importantly does support for santorum get understated? maybe because there's the so-called silent majority is back. >> yeah, that could definitely be true in this. maybe they're not polling -- a lot of the polling has been off historically in alabama. i read that. >> well, part of it is there's not a lot of good pollsters that have spent a lot of time polling these two states. even people with good track records haven't done a lot of polling. >> i don't think a lot of people talk about the mormon issue too.

when i've talked to voters, they'll bring it up, but it's like, well, kind of conversation. they don't like to talk about it. even if that is factoring in their position or their decision. >> i heard a lot of whispering about it both in tennessee and north carolina when i was doing other consulting work. people were -- it was on the table. >> it can get oddly volunteered. the other thing people forget is that republican primaries are still new things in the south. >> they are. >> it used to be you had a lot of conservative voters who stayed registered as democrats and voted republican in federal elections so they didn't participate, right? >> yeah, no, it's somewhat uncharted territory. i don't think anyone can put a bull's-eye on this thing but romney has been down there working it, gingrich has been working it. i think both in mississippi and alabama mitt is doing everything he can possibly do. he's got a terrific slate of endorsements in mississippi. you've got to keep an eye on bentley's comments about faith. he just endorsed santorum this

morning. >> now bentley -- what's interesting about bentley, he won a republican primary that was basically establishment versus the social conservatives there. all the establishment including jeb bush that got behind another candidate and bentley won big. >> it sounds like he would be more inclined to support santorum who is the non-establishment candidate right now at this very minute. >> but then you have a guy like mike hubbard, one of the driving forces in the state, strongly backing romney. tinge message around the jobs and the economy, mitt has great crowds over the weekend. he's closing strong. >> mississippi is one of the states where, believe it or not, there's an establishment inside the republican party. henry barber talked about it a little bit. >> if mitt romney comes in closing, he'll have bragging

rights. stick around, i want to talk about the president and voting rights. finally, it is southern rock time. trivia time we ask, who was the first foreign leader to visit president reagan after his inauguration? it's the special relationship, british prime minister margaret thatcher. the two formed a political alliance that continued long after they both left office. it seems every british prime minister does form an interesting friendship during their times in office. the same goes true with obama and cameron it appears. you're watching "the daily rundown" only on msnbc. piro.obert over a million people have discovered how easy it is to use legalzoom for important legal documents. so start your business, protect your family, launch your dreams. at legalzoom.com, we put the law on your side. delicious gourmet gravy.

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let's bring back our panel, i want to quickly talk about what the obama justice department did, they ruled the voter id law in texas, basically

they ruled to block it, jamaal. this has been one of the base arguments, base of the democratic party gets fired up about the voter party laws, saying for different reasons, is there validity that the voter laws are going to keep people from the polls? >> sure. there's a question about latino voters, in south carolina that came up about older african-american voters, if you're 80 years old and weren't born in the hospital, you don't have a birth certificate, you don't drive anymore, you may not have a government id that's valid. so trying to get those folks up to par and get them back is a pretty big deal. >> for the opposite question, it does seem as if there are a lot of republican state legislatures looking to a problem for a solution that does not exist, which is the mass of voter fraud. >> i don't know the premise of that question would be something most would accept. this is a bipartisan issue with democratic legislatures that have taken on this issue of federalism and state levels, but

it is a basic level of fairness in access. >> the assumption is there's a problem and there is no staytist call proof of voter fraud. >> if you feel pack a lot of elections over the last several cycles there are enormous instances of questionable voter fraud. this is not driven by some kind of partisan ideological witchhunt, it is trying to set a base level standard of what's fair and legitimate and legal. >> jackie, give me your -- you're stuck in the middle and i have to go, very quickly. on this issue, is it -- it does seem to be polarizing. >> it is a polarizing issue. it is two southern states. >> that's all you need to know. >> one number, george bush got 40% of the latino vote. mccain got 30%. the republican candidates are at 14%. it is an issue. >> shameless plug, go last,

jackie. >> go bucks, march madness. >> 8-year-old niece, george washington carver presentation this week, nailed it. >> awesome. >> shameless plug. political fund-raisers out there into a go payment system into your smartphone, sbip swipe your card, get your transaction. >> i have to stop him. holy cow, that's it for this edition of "the daily rundown." tomorrow we'll break down the winners and losers from today's contest on msnbc. coming up next, chris jansing, she's more than a mississippi queen. she's msnbc's queen. have a super tuesday. here's your business travel forecast. the incredibly warm spring conditions continue around the country today with a slight chance for showers and storms on the east coast. it won't rain all day, just a

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