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tv   Hardball With Chris Matthews  MSNBC  April 12, 2012 11:00pm-12:00am PDT

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moving forward with the maccabees. >> we have to go, we are out of time. that will have to be the last word. thank you very much for joining me tonight. >> the war over women. let's play some hardball. good evening. i'm michael smerconish in new york sitting in for chris matthews. what do women want? not mitt romney, at least according to the gender gap seen in many polls, and things only seemed to get worse yesterday as the romney campaign stumbled on the subject of equal pay. then just as the democrats were
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ready to celebrate a successful day, one of their own stepped on their message with an ill-conceived shot at anne romney. anne romney fired back today and now president obama has weighed in. also an agreement between the obama campaign and the republican candidate. the right wants him to say he meant those quotes he said during the campaign and democrats won't let the swing voters forget it. plus, the trayvon martin case. we got our first glimpse of george zimmerman when he appeared in court today. harvard law professor george dershowitz joins us to break down the case. about 80 democrats in the house are communists. communists! spe the spent the 1950s in the fever swamps of mccarthyism. do they really want to go there tonight? and let me point out why we may be in even worse shape four years from now.
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joe walsh is editor of salon and both are msnbc analysts. let's take a look at the comments made by debra rosen on cnn last night that kicked off this controversy. >> what you have is mitt romney running around the country saying, well, my wife tells me that what women really care about are economic issues. when i listen to my wife, that's what i'm hearing. guess what? his wife has actually never worked a day in her life. she's never really dealt with the kind of economic issues that a majority of women in this country are facing in terms of how do we feed our kids? how do we send them to school and why do we worry about their future? >> today rosen apologized for what she called her poorly chosen words, but on twitter and tv she defended the premise of her argument.
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here's what she posted on her twitter account last night. when i said anne romney never worked, i meant she never had to care for her kids and earn a paycheck like most american women. joining me now, michael steele and also joan walsh. can we parse this statement? michael steele, his wife has actually never worked a day in her life, she said. i mean, that was an atrocious thing to say. i think we can all agree on that. she raised five boys, she's worked plenty of days in her life. >> thank you. >> but she then goes on to further explain what she means. does her current meaning legitimize a lack of empathy? >> there is no legitimate argument there. according to her, never worked a day in her life doesn't mean i have empathy for my mom who had to work or a sister who may be working or an aunt or dear friend of mine who has made the choice to go into the work force as well as raise her kids at home, as well as do whatever else she's doing.
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this sort of elite attitude, particularly about conservative women and this presumption that they're somehow disconnected or disjointed from the rest of america because of their wealth or their station is just ludicrous. i mean, she's never walked a day in ann's shoes, she doesn't know what trouble she has at home raising those five kids that, regardless of whether she had a job in the work force, are real challenges for her. you just don't make these presumptions -- if a conservative had made that same call, the outcry would be deafening because it's arrogant and it's insensitive. let her tell her story the way she wants to tell it. the american people will judge for themselves whether there is value. you don't need people pontificating how they live their lives. >> senate learned about 10 years ago that this is a dumb argument.
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every mother is a working mother. let's just say that, okay? whether you stay home or whether you work, being a mom is very hard. >> you don't have to tell me that. i have a working mom. >> i'm actually talking to michael smerconish. >> finish your point. >> please. for god's sake. the real issue here is that mitt romney, what we're forgetting, is that mitt romney, in that lordly way he has, says, my wife reports to me that women say this and women care about the economy. it's mitt romney's foot and mouth disease that brought us to this position, and that is what hilary rosen was talking about, that he uses his wife as this everywoman who reports to him, like what, he's the ceo and he's deferred the women question to her? i have advice for mitt romney. i'm not a romney campaign adviser. don't talk about your wife as your campaign surrogate or your
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adviser on women. talk about the experiences of women. as michael steele says, men can have empathy, men can learn about what matters to women. that's the point she was trying to make. >> will you accept that, that governor romney put this into play by identifying his wife into the way he sort of gets insight into female voters? >> no, i don't. he's relaying personal conversations. she's not a paid staffer. every candidate who has ever run for whatever office has made that connection with family or voters. i listen to what my wife tells me, or newt talks about his grandkids, and even president obama talks about his children. the infamous carter telling amy, telling him how to decide nuclear policy. but everyone makes that connection in their own way, and i think i'm a little bit overblown to sit there and say it's a foot and mouth disease. >> it went viral today.
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it got all the way to the president. president obama weighed in this afternoon. he was asked about a kovrgs in an. >> first of all, there is no tougher job than being a mom. i watched michelle who, for most of her career, had to juggle work and family, but there was a time when she was on maternity leave, and i'm telling you, that's work. i think this was an ill-advised statement by somebody on television. it's not something that i subscribe to, and moreover, my general rule is, you don't talk about the spouses of elected officials. because they've got a really tough job. i haven't met ms. romney, but she seems like a wonderful woman, and i know that she's devoted her life to her family. >> joan walsh, among those who tweeted in opposition or in
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disagreement, perhaps i should say, with this whole controversy with david axelrod, and i guess it begs the question as to whether democrats have a right to be defensive. are they handling this correctly from a political standpoint? should axelrod have sent out the tweet that he did? >> i don't think axelrod needed to do that. i love what the president said. he did it very well. but hilary rosen herself said he didn't put it the right way. we're being dragged into a phoney debate. mitt romney, i have to give him credit, he's carrying the day. he had a ridiculous, i know you are but what am i strategy about the war on women. he pretended president obama is the one with the war on women when that is patently ridiculous, and unfortunately, hilary rosen's comments got us all talking about something else. but the real issue is life is tougher for women who have to work. that being able to stay home with your children right now is an issue, it's a choice. we need to discuss the issues of
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poor women, working class women, middle class women and getting our panties in a twist over the issues of very wealthy women when the woman in question, hilary rosen, has apologized. this is a bad day that we could be spending this day on many more important issues. >> michael, can i throw in this thought? there have been a whole host of female-oriented issues that have been raised in the last 20 years. an obama campaign adviser didn't help his boss when he said they didn't support the liberal pay act, take a look and see what you think. >> our next question will come from sam stein with huffington post. please go ahead. >> does governor romney support the lilly ledbetter fair act?
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>> the president understands the devastation it has caused women and families. the president has made so many strides in the last three years to upgrade women's treatment and their jobs and their livelihood. >> michael, there was a little mary woods action going on there. this has become a curfuffle. >> it was dumb. you have to raise money, so you put the kermudgeon. romney itself had you'lly been on -- on the other issue, i think you're blowing it out of proportion on the other one. it's just crazy. >> i think it's a legitimate issue and i think it's pathetic that a.
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they could sign into law a bill weakening. so it's very important that we get the romney campaign, i'm very happy about that. but that is a real issue. what hilary of these. . how, if you were advising mitt romney, would you be telling him to bridge that. ignore the silly noise eye. come up very strongly and talk to mem and all of america. .
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>> merp women are doing it all. they're going to night school, they're raising kids, and you have to have a method that helps that women understand that during. there are a lot out there who stay at home with their kids, too. they teach their kids, their. the distraction what we need. >> 20 seconds and you have the final thought. go ahead. >> the proportion of women who can afford to stay home is going down. one of the five women in the work force right now would actually be home for their kids. and also.
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. so there are lot of. >> thank you, michael steele, and joan walsh >> does everybody want mitt romney to run on the points he was making during the primaries, and nobody wants him to pivot on ahead. this is "hardball."
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new poll numbers in the presidential race. let's check the "hardball" scoreboard. president obama leading mitt romney by 9 points, 49 to 40. in 2008, obama won the garden state by 15 points. if romney puts chris christie on the ticket, this could be a contest. yesterday found new jersey's approval of chris christie at a
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record high. we'll be right back.
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welcome back to "hardball." now that mitt romney has effective won the republican nomination, he hopes to follow a rich tradition, head back to the republican center. but republicans and democrats are saying, no way. conservatives he quoted in the primary say, forget the etch a sketch. they plan to hold mitt romney to his new right wing positions, and they're going to make sure we're reminded of mitt romney's conservative views. how does he walk that tightrope? gentlemen, yesterday on fox news, mitt romney tried to assure voters that the party will unite behind him in the fall, and he said this. >> i think we'll all come together as time goes on to make sure that we see a new change in direction in washington. i think senator santorum, throughout the campaign, has been speaking about issues that we care about very deeply.
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so we're on the same page on those issues. i think you see our party, and you will see our party more united than it's been in a long, long time in part because president obama has taken america in such a different course than we have ever gone as a nation before. >> chip saltzman, do you buy into the premise that he needs to move tornado to capture independent voters and win in november? >> i think he needs to be true to himself. this is a guy that comes from the private sector. he talks about jobs all the time, economy, that's where his comfort zone is. he won the primary. it was tough and long. i think how we win as republicans, we stay true to our republican principles, our conservative values, but this election is going to be one on jobs and the economy and i think mitt romney is going to be recomfortable in the fall discussing these issues. >> but you've seen the numbers suggesting he lags behind the president on economic voters, but you're saying he's got to stand that ground. frankly, what i said at the beginning of the lead-in, that
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those on the right of the republican party are insisting he maintain his position in which he ran in the primary. >> to thine be true, be true to the republican party, but it's about the economy, it's about gas prices, and lay out a clear vision to this country. if he does that, he wins in november, and he's got one thing exactly right. the power of barack obama has done one thing to this party. the party is coming through in the last couple months. you saw that in the last couple months and especially in the last couple days. >> do you believe the government is hoping they fall where the chips lie, that there be nothing from the vantage point? >> i guess the question we all have is which self are we talking about? are we talking about the mitt romney who is the governor of massachusetts which i think he would like to morph into, or the mitt romney who ran in the
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primaries and embraces the path that mitt romney took and is now embracing the budget, which includes medicare, as we know it, and it embraces many of the policies that folks are calling a wore on women. if he wants to own those things, i think democrats would love it. if he wants to flip-flop again, i think democrats would talk about that. and if he wants to run as a businessman who loves to fire people to create jobs, and carve out a company leaving debt behind, we can talk about that as well. >> how would you, as a strategist, attempt to keep him locked in as the romney of the 2012 primary season as compared to the romney who was the governor of massachusetts and who, i maintain, would have independent appeal to voters. >> the obama campaign put out a clip that said there's not going to be an etch a sketch moment in this campaign. we're going to hold him to his word, and they put him to his words in the general election. >> this may be where you say they are having fun with him in
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these seasons. here's a web ad. >> corporations are people, my friend. >> i like being able to fire people who provide services to me. i was a severely conservative republican governor. do i believe the supreme court should turn over roe v. wade? yes? >> planned parenthood. we have to get rid of that. >> don't try to stop the foreclosure process, let it run its course and hit the bottom. >> chip saltzman, you played in such a high-level position for governor huckabee, if you were in this instance whispering in the ear of the obama campaign, how would tell them to respond to what you just saw? >> i would take it back to barack obama and talk about the issues that matter. i know we talked about romney fired people. i think there are a lot of
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people in washington that need firing. if he's got experience in that, let's put it to work. they have spent more money in the last two years than this country has spent in the last 200. i would take it to barack obama and talk about what matters in this country. and mitt romney, you're the guy to do it. >> steve mcmann, let me ask you to switch hats. you seem to think that mitt romney, in order to win, would have to attack toward the middle. is there an issue that comes to mind where he could move to the middle, upset some conservatives but still keep everybody in the tent? >> boy, that's a good question. i think moving to the middle in the era of the tea party where the tea party dominates the republican echo chamber, where you have a candidate like newt gingrich who is staying in the race to keep him honest, or you
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have tony perkins out there saying he's going to keep the pressure on, it becomes very difficult for mitt romney to become the guy, the centrist, the massachusetts governor who people one day feared. he's become kind of the caricature of a tea party right wing conservative. he wasn't firing government employees, he was creating wealth by firing middle class employees. the kind of manufacturing jobs leading this country were hastened in their departure. he might try to move to the middle but it will just be another flip-flop. primarily, something worse than a flip-flopper is about to be a flip-flops-flips. this guy is what they would call in "top gun," a target rich environment. >> he likened voting for obama or mitt romney as a time of eating your vegetables. he was also selected on the daily rundown.
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take a peek. >> he does have a record that does not necessarily match his rhetoric that he campaigned on four years ago and had not campaigned on much this time, although he's checked the boxes. he clearly has a lot of work to do to shore up support among a very important segment of the republican voting base. so they're going to vote for mitt romney. there's not a question. the question is the level of enthusiasm and. you hear, make reference to having their opinions, but you have to get your ideas in one box. >> eating your vegetables, we think it's a good thing. but i think as mitt romney put this, you have to keep the base energized and excited.
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i think you can do that perhaps with a v. p. pick. i think there are good names out there to do that, but this election is going to be about jobs. this election is going to be about the economy, and i think mitt romney is pretty comfortable there. up next, what does first lady michelle obama have to say about the fact that her popularity is higher than her husband's? stick around as we come back. i stepped on the machine, and it showed me the pressure points
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welcome back to "hardball." and now for the sideshow, first lady michelle obama was on the colbert show last night. she was there to support military families but also hit on her role in the general election. >> do you ever lord over the
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president the fact that you're more popular than he is? do you ever say, like, hey, watch it, or i won't run the campaign for you. >> i might try that when i get home. >> have you endorsed him yet? are you prepared to do that? >> i am prepared. i am endorsing my husband, barack obama. i think he will be a phenomenal president. he has done a phenomenal job. he's my man. [ applause ] >> a new measureis poll shows first lady obama with a 55% approval. >> this contraceptive thing, my gosh, it's so inexpensive. back in my days, they used bare aspirin for contraceptive. girls put it between their knees and it wasn't that costly. >> they're probably wishing the romney issue would keep his mouth shut.
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>> it's going to be very hard for him not to stick with those positions. he has to realize the american people are counting on him now to do what he says, and i think he will. there are a lot of things that haven't been hammered at because rick and mitt kind of turn on each other. now that they've turned the barrels on president obama, i hope they're bulletproof. >> he says he shouldn't have said that. no, he shouldn't have. george zimmerman made his first appearance in court today. he is charged with second-degree murder and we'll break down the case with alan dershowitz next on "hardball."
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now back to "hardball." welcome back to "hardball." today george zimmerman made his first court appearance since being charged with the fatal shooting of trayvon martin. the appearance lasted less than five minutes but it was a marker
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in the shooting death of trayvon martin and the arraignment was set for may 29. joining me now is kerry sanders. kerry, the affidavit of probable cause was released this afternoon. what surprises do you see in it? >> well, you know, the affidavit of probable cause explains why the prosecution decided that there was, in their mind, a second-degree murder here. there were two investigators who did this affidavit, and they are from the state attorney's office, and they were working for the special prosecutor. i think the first thing that really grabbed me when i was looking at it was there's been this whole question about who was following who and why they were doing it. the first thing it says in here is that trayvon was profiled by george zimmerman. so that suggests, using that word profile, that he was being followed because he was african-american. then on another page in the affidavit, it goes on to talk about zimmerman confronted
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martin at a struggle. this is critical of the stand your ground law if you are not the one initiating the contact, so here they're saying zimmerman confronted martin. that appears to be the basis in the affidavit why they believe the stand your ground here does not apply. >> go ahead, i was going to say i thought it was a little thin for what it doesn't say. i'm anxious to ask professor dershowitz about that in a moment, but make your second point. >> you're correct, and in that hearing today it was kind of a surprise, because as you know, florida has a very liberal open record laws, and we expected to get a lot more than this. but the defense attorney, mark omara requested that all the public records be sealed, and angela corey, who would typically not be in a first
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appearance, was in the courtroom, and she agreed. now it would take a challenge for the judge assigned to this to determine whether, indeed, florida's public records law apply to all cases, those that are high profile and those that are not, or whether they're going to create a new interpretation of cases that are high profile. the other thing in here that i think is interesting, and i have to kind of edit the words, but there are those 911 calls that we heard, including the call that george zimmerman made, and there was a mutterring in there that was hard to an loois what they said. this is what the investigators say, and these are quotes. these -- expletive deleted -- they always get away. then it goes on to say these -- expletive deleted -- punks. i think that's interesting because nobody really knew exactly what was said, and now, at least from the state's point
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of view, and then ultimately there is a question of that scream, chris, we heard that scream, and there were both sides arguing that was trayvon martin screaming for help, no, that was george zimmerman. they said they played that piece of audio tape to sabrina fulton, which is trayvon's mother, and trayvon martin's mother has reviewed the 911 calls and identified the voice crying for help as trayvon martin's voice. so there you see -- i agree with you, thin document here of how they reached their conclusion to bring second-degree murder charges. >> we appreciate your time and your report very much. joining me now, harvard law professor alan dershowitz. i've looked forward to this conversation. you've seen the affidavit of probable cause. what do you make of it? >> it won't suffice. most are thin. this is so thin it won't make it past a judge on a second-degree murder charge. there is simply nothing in there that would justify second-degree murder.
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the elements of the crime aren't established. basically what's in the affidavit is what's in the public domain with the exception of the few little things that were put forward by your previous commentator, but the fact that the mother identified the voice as that of her son, of course, we all knew that was going to happen. there is nothing in there, of course, either about the stains on the back of zimmerman's shirt, the blood on the back of his head, the bloody nose, all of that. it's not only thin, it's irresponsible. i think that what you have here is an elected public official who made a campaign speech last night for reelection when she gave her presentation, and overcharged, way overcharged. this case will not -- if the evidence is no stronger than what appears in the probable cause affidavit, this case will result in an acquittal. >> allow me, please, just to read one short paragraph so folks know how limited it is in the factual discussion of the critical sequence.
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zimmerman confronted martin and a struggle ensued. witnesses heard people arguing and what sounded like a struggle. during this time period, witnesses heard numerous calls for help and some of these were recorded in 911 calls to police. trayvon's mother has reviewed the 911 calls and identified the voice as trayvon martin's. nothing about who struck the first blow and what precipitated that action that i was looking forward to seeing in the affidavit of probable cause. >> and it's unethical, and not including the material that favors the defendant, if it's not true that we've learned from other investigations that there were grass stains on zimmerman's shirt, that there were bruises on his head. you must include that in the affidavit. >> you have written something very insightful about a nightmare scenario that a prosecutor would face where you discern between a level of proof, probable cause and
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reasonable doubt. lay that out for us now. >> it's very easy to get an indictment. a prosecutor can persuade a grand jury to indict a ham sandwich. it's even easier to get something like this because all the prosecutor has to do is sign her name to it. probable cause is a very minimal standard. it just means if everything you say turns out to be true, have the elements of the crime been satisfied? proof beyond a reasonable doubt means that a jury has to conclude that there is no reasonable doubt that it happened. this affidavit doesn't even make it to probable cause. everything in the affidavit is completely consistent with a defense of self-defense. everything. even if he was the provocateur, you still have traditional defense under florida law. if zimmerman provoked it and then martin got on top and was banging his head against the ground, he still has a traditional right of self-defense. there is nothing in this affidavit that suggests the crime.
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it suggests the possibility of a crime, but a good judge will throw this out. and i think probably she would be satisfied with it. she's won her campaign, she's overcharged, second-degree murder. she's the hero. >> will the prosecution get a mulligan on this? will they have the opportunity to do it over and put more information into it? >> sure, but the question is do they have more information? if they have more information, why don't they put into it? and why are both sides trying to seal the record here? i think we're seeing negotiations possibly toward a plea bargain. the new lawyer implied that yesterday when he talked about negotiations and when he wouldn't say anything critical about the prosecutor. it is unethical to overcharge in order to get a plea. it's unethical to charge second-degree murder in order to get a plea of manslaughter, so i think this prosecutor had a lot of answering to do. she'll win a lot of popularity contests, she'll probably get points with the judge, but the tragedy in america is the only democracy in the world where we elect prosecutors and elect
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judges, and that's not working where people are expecting outcomes. martin's parents, who seem to be handling this very well, i think they are interested in the truth and i have nothing but praise for the way they've handled this case. >> thank you for your insight, as always. >> thank you. alan west of florida says there are about 80 democrats on capitol hill who are members of the communist party. what is this, 1952? somewhere joe mccarthy is smiling. by the way, you can follow me on twitter if you can spell smerconish. this is "hardball." [ female announcer ] women have made it the number one selling anti-aging cream undeniably. it creamed unbelievably a $500 cream and now women have made regenerist microsculpting cream also unscented. women love it. in original and also fragrance-free.
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relieves kids' worst allergy symptoms for 24 hours. plus, it's the #1 pediatrician recommended non-drowsy brand. ♪ gonna be a bright ♪ sunshiny day ♪ former presidential candidate john edwards who was in court today as jury selection got under way in his criminal trial. edwards faces six criminal counts related to nearly a million dollars in secret payments made by two campaign donors to allegedly cover up an extramarital affair. if convicted, edwards could face 30 years in prison and be expected to pay fines. we'll be right back.
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we're back. republican congressman alan west of florida is threatening to take its party back to an era it would rather forget. the infamous speech in wheeling, pennsylvania in 1950, west told people in the town there were 80 people in congress that were members of the communist party. is that really the message that the gop wants to be sending in 2012? howard fine is an nbc political analyst. chris freed is the reporter for the national journal. it's at a town hall meeting on tuesday. he's fielding a question by an attendee. >> what percentage of the american legislature do you think are card-carrying marxists or international socialists? >> there are about 80 members of
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the congress that are members of the communist party. >> afterwards, the congressman's staff didn't back away from his comment, they doubled down saying, quote, the congressman was referring to the 76 members of the congressional progressive caucus. the communist party has publicly referred to the congressional caucus as its allies. an extreme example of the loose la >> yes, it is, and i was just talking to one of the top officials in the democratic party who said, where is the outrage on the part of responsible republicans? where are they saying let's denounce this guy? there's a lot of talk on the air about loose sided politics, stay at home moms, this and that, news of the day. congress isn't in session, sure, but where is john boehner, where
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are the leaders of the republican party saying this is ridiculous? they're not saying it, and in the meantime, it helps the democrats to the extent it makes the republican party look even more weirdly tea partyish than it already did. there's a lot of talk about stay at home moms and news of the day, congress is not in session, but where are the leaders of the republican party saying this is ridiculous. they're not saying it and it helps the democratics because it makes the republican party more weirdly tea partyish than it already did. >> and you have gone through some verbal faux pas they have gone through. >> yes, allen west on the republican side has nods from people like sarah palin and herman cane, saying he can get the tea party excited about the
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romney ticket, but when you look at the things he said, he said being gay is like picking an ice cream flavor. he has said that keith ellisson, the first muslim elected to congress -- and he called the chairwoman vile. these are things if you're a vice president candidate you're going to drive your campaign off message and it will hurt the campaign high pressure he is showing he is not ready for the national spotlight, and it's easy for democrating to lampoon that behavior, and romney needs to be the serious adult that can fix our problems. >> to show everybody how far off the rails this is, the communist party is backing away from what west said. it's guilty by association taken to an extreme. >> yes, and when the communist party is attacking you for being wild and crazy, you know you're probably off in the corner somewhere. i don't think anybody seriously in the republican party is
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looking at allen west at a vice presidential candidate. and i would say if sarah palin or herman cane are talking about him that proves my point. he does nothing but play into the hands of those that would like to take the republican party off the edge of the cliff by the tea party. years ago they were saying they were going to revolutionize the republican party, but i think the tea party has lost a lot of luster in the electorate, and now the democrats can try to tie comments and characters like west to the republican party and try to make him the emblem of the republican party. >> i have less than a minute less, but the point is we discussed this earlier in the program, it's a time when the
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gop needs to command independent support, this is the wrong brand at the wrong time, that's the significance, right? >> this is not a candidate when he first rain for congress, the gop distanced himself from allen west. when he looked like he could take a seat in 2010, they through their support behind him late. i think you're both right when you say this is not the kind of character that the establishment gop wants to put on the ticket when they need independent votes. >> on that we all agree. when we return, allow me to finish with a prediction about the republican nominee for 2016. you're watching "hardball." [ male announcer ] raise your hand if you've got savings whiplash. you know, from car insurance companies shouting,
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let me finish tonight with this. with mitt romney now in control of the 2012 gop nomination, i'm looking into my 2016 crystal ball. the usual suspects for 2016 assuming mitt romney loses to barack obama which current poles suggest will be the race. if romney loses, i can hear santorum in an iowa corn field telling people, "i told you so" he told wisconsin voters he was
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the worst republican to put against barack obama. he can use the same speeches again. then he will have to drill down on when a gerald ford won over ronald reagan but lost the election. of course, an alternative view is that the gop went off the rails with religious and social litmus tests and the conservative candidates cannibalized moderates, and they allowed the most liberal of the field to survive the process. romney survived the race that had no hares. the party has done nothing to broaden it's tent, and
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registration figures document the growth of independents. there will be santorum fresh from the speaker's circuit and a stint on foxx news faces rubio and others. they will get anyone together whatever independent gop thinkers never got the memo and are in the party. there are few republicans with national stature that are not ideologs. last september, new york magazine offered five things conservative voters would hate about chris christie. he will be in a crowded field which will be an advantage if they split the primary vote.