put into your mouth or what comes out of it? the eye of newt, let's play "hardball." good evening, i'm crust matthews in washington, let me start with this. i have newt gingrich with he here tonight and it will be an interesting discussion. i hope he will say what he thinks he he thinks a lot. whatever you think of his rough politics, he operates on a higher level of debate for the simple reason he thinks in a deeper level of discussion than his opponents.

he has the perspective of knowing history and knowing it's important. so let's talk to the man that gave mitt romney a good fight and knows more about him than most of us ever will learn. former speaker of the house. good to be with you. i have a theory about you that is not hard to prove. you're smarter than you talk sometimes, you know about politics at a deeper level, you read endlessly about american political history, and you're up against guys in debate who don't. >> that's true so far. >> how much does it burn you that mitt romney, a man i'm convinced, is not deeply rooted in american political history beat you with money? >> it doesn't burn me a lot. he did what he had to do to become the nominee. he organized for six years. he worked on this since his dad's campaign for president. he paid his dues, lost in '94,

after the crunch he was tough enough and smart enough to beat me in florida. now i have real respect, and you have been at this stuff, when you have somebody tough enough to look you in the eye and run over you -- >> did he tell the truth about you? >> no. but he did what he had to do. >> so the end justifies the means? >> no, but go back and look at what obama did to hillary. these are tough fights. you have been through them. you throw the kitchen sink. he informs a situation where everything he had ever done would disappear if i beat him in florida. so he said look, i can throw the kitchen sink, or i can be a nice guy and not be the nominee. >> what burns me as a student of politics, is that someone like yourself, who has been studying politics -- look at our history of the president, we have people like woodrow wilson that wrote a life of washington.

people that earned it with deep thought. mitt romney is not that guy high pressure he is a man of faith, family, we'll give him that, and of business, give him that, but he's certainly not a man of history or any kind of understanding of the presidency. he doesn't understand what it is, he think it's a business ting tinkerer. >> this is a guy who has thought about this at least since his father ran in 1968. >> to do what daddy couldn't do. >> right. >> is that an understanding of the country. >> having collided with him head on and his organization, and now working with him on the campaign, he has assembled a very smart group of people. and he listens to them well, and he asks them tough questions,

and he is approaching this as methodically as anybody. back in the 1950s, sam labell was a great political scientist. was at election night with a lot of academic that's were shocked eisenhower won, walked around the room, and said not a single person voted for eisenhower and said this is a sign of the gap in america. mitt romney is like eisenhower. he's a good organizer, a methodical person, he is prepared to do what he thinks is right for the country, and he might turn out to make a surprisingly good -- >> eisenhower got a nazi surrender, he was a man of peace that kept us out of the war and lebanon, and like the campaign the other guy is a guy that never seen more that talks like

a hawk, so i have a problem like that. romney talks like he has been to war, but he hasn't. >> the parallels are not even, but stevenson was more -- who would have guessed in 1906 that lincoln would be as eloquent and effective as he was. >> you're saying he's a long shot. >> i'm saying you don't know and he doesn't know exactly what kind of president -- look at obama, he is one of the most articulate eloquent people we ever had, and i think he is largely an amateur. his misunderstanding of this city is extraordinary. >> here you took on romney's claim that he was not a career politician, and i thought this was quite a smart comment by you, let's watch it.

>> this for me, politics is not a career. for me, my career was being in business and starting a business and making it successful. my life's passion is my family, faith, and business. >> you ran in '94 and lost, that's why you were not serving. you've been running consistently for years and years and years. so suddenly citizenship showed up in your mind, just level, you've been running since the 1990s. >> you got him to laugh, because it was true. he was a failed politician. >> now i have to tell you, he is probably laughing looking at this because now he is successful, he will be the republican nominee. >> but a business guy that stayed away from the dirtiness of politics was forced on him by defeat.

okay, let's look at this, we have newt gingrich at an event in florida, let's watch the next clip of you in action, i like this stuff. >> we're not going to beat barack obama with some guy who has swiss bank accounts, kaman island accounts, a stockholder in fannie mae and freddie mac, and he thinks the rest of us are too stupid to put the dots together. >> so now i think the obama team, not as sharp as your team, will use everything you said. >> here is the problem. and i'm surprised they did this. it didn't work. >> you didn't have the resources. if you had the kind of money -- if you could have matched dollar for dollar you would have won. >> but not on that issue. that didn't work -- >> in the republican party it didn't work. >> no, in general. watch what's happening right now. there is a reason the governor of massachusetts, the democratic senator from california, and

others -- >> they like the equity because of the money they give him. they hang out with them because they want their support. you know what's going on. cory booker, all of these guys, they love those guys. >> so you're saying the only honest ethical guys are guys like barack obama who was the number one choice of all of the >> i think you had a streak of honesty there saying do you want a chop shop guy coming in taking over the american political system and his only claim is that he could shut down business and cost cut and flip them. >> i thought i was a better choice. compared to obama, i think romney is a better choice. >> but you said this bain capital was the bain of his existence, and you said it well, better than the president, and now you're saying you're wrong. >> no, i'm saying it doesn't work. here is the president's problem. the president was the number one recipient of wall street money in 2008.

the president was loved by everybody who he is now attacking. >> for reasons that have nothing to do with economics. >> these people on wall street never vote economic interest for liberal, they don't want regulation or high taxes. they like those deals. >> i'm just reporting to you that -- your position, if they're for us, they're not virt virtuous. >> here is the problem. and it's twofold. one, obama set up class warfare paradigm that people reject. a president with this level of unemployment attacking business is not credible. >> what if a guy says i made a quarter million bucks, if you do it my way, we win. if you have a guy as successful as me, we'll have a better country. my wealth is my case for my presidency.

>> the fact is, historically what they would have said, they're interested in ending poverty by leveling up, not leveling down. >> let's look at some of these, i don't think anything what we say here is as good as you say in the campaign, you describe your choice between the president, i want you to analyze some of these dog whistles, let's watch. >> if you're for paychecks you're with us, food stamps you're with barack obama. if you're for american exceptionalism you're us, european socialism and radicalism you're with barack obama. if you are, in fact, in favor of a strong america in a dangerous world you're with us, if you're for a weak america that tries to apiece it's enemies, you're with obama. >> then you use a phrase like food stamps with all the coinage

it's got. but then the line, do you think the average person knows who solninsky is. you say this foreign sounding name, russian sounding name, why him? what's the point of giving a stump speech -- he is for poor blacks and off with the commies. >> food stamps are not about poor blacks? >> that's not the signal you were sending? >> no, it has to do with dependency. no, it never had that. reagan used to do it, say a guy standing in line at the safeway and seeing a young buck walk by, and buy his liquor with his food stamps. i won't get you to agree with it, i'll just assert it.

>> remember the welfare queen never once had an ethnic -- it could have been any background. >> yeah right. you're smiling. >> more whiting than blacks are on food stamps. the average person thinks it's a shot. so if i said bill ayers, since he is not a foreigner, that's not a foreign sounding -- >> he was at one time. >> we'll be right back, i want to talk about some interesting stuff with you. one question about your party, why can't you lose the birther stuff? why do you have like trump you'll be with tomorrow, and coffman in colorado, still pushing this. there's a dozen of these guys, why not just drop them off the back of the caboose and say lose it. we'll be back with more with newt gingrich.

back to "hardball" and newt gingrich. why do some people in your party, including donald trump who i have mixed feelings about, i like him in some ways, but he is not stupid enough to believe this birther stuff. barack obama has a birth certificate. he is clearly locally born in hawaii, why do some people in your party push that he is not an american? >> beats me. >> thank you. let me ask you about the tampa convention. we're going to be gavel to gavel here, we'll be covering this thing on fox and msnbc and cnn, but on the broadcast net, we get

about an hour a night, will you get prime time? >> no, but i'll get whatever romney thinks helps him win? yes, i will take whatever romney thinks will help him win. >> i'm to team player. when you smile i see what you are. let me ask about vice president, i think it's portman, but i would love it to be christie for reasons like i would like you to be the nominee, but how will he go about picking him? an ibm executive, calculated? get one state? >> no. >> what is it about? >> i think first of all if you look at george w. for example, getting wyoming couldn't be the reason -- >> that whole dance was orchestrated by. >> by cheney, he picked himself.

tom ridge is a good buy. >> i think they will face a couple bis decisions and you won't know the shape of it until july. for example, virginia is a key state both for governor and the senate. bob mcdonald is a terrific governor, do you use him and seal off the south? >> does had hurt that he is catholic? >> no, it might help. that could be an asset. he will be an asset across the country. if you want a guy that helps you in the industrial midwest, portman has an advantage. it makes him more complicated that he was the trade representative, but he's really smart, so i suspect he can handle -- >> would you go with a colorful

guy like christie or rubio? >> i would look at rubio seriously. >> is it two strange to have two people with mormon backgrounds on the ticket? >> no. >> so you think rubio is in the running? >> at this stage i think he is, you have to question, florida is now a huge state. >> if you had to order it right now, who do you think the best picks are if you were picking? >> i think almost anybody you just mentioned, mitch daniels and three or four other people. they have to decide a couple things. first of all, the person has to be capable of being president. and second they have to be philosophically compatible which means a broadly conservative person. >> thune? >> i think he is attractive and

articulate. >> last question, animals, you and i in a different way share a tremendous interest in animals. i think you're the only presidential candidate ever to basically go zoo to zoo. women in combat want to go off and kill -- >> that came from a course i taught. >> but it still -- whatever it means. what are you and animals about? >> i love the natural world. i love animals if they're out in the wild or in the zoos. >> best zoo in the country? >> san diego. >> if you take the water animal and -- it's just huge. >> best out of all favorite animal to watch? >> hard to say, maybe elephants.

they're just remarkable. >> i'll show you a picture in the office. do you like the reptile house? >> yes. >> why? >> because -- >> most people are afraid. >> they're successful, they do it in a totally different way they we do, and they have been successful for a long period of time. >> favorite snake? >> python. >> why? >> it's a constrictor, right? you like the constrictor aspect of it. you like that it eats cows whole. >> i thought you would like the mamba, they go 30 miles per hour -- >> you have a more ruthless approach to politics than i do. >> thank you, newt gingrich, please come back if you don't side with fox again, it will be good for you. stay independent. we'll be right back with the side show, and this has not been that. this is "hardball."

the past few months has been a buzz that mitt romney will pick a vice president that is safe, white, and dumber than him. that narrows it down to a piece of chalk. >> that is the side show. first off, how rick scott just became the laughing stock of spanish tv. he was promoting business opportunities to his home state. spain's leader caused a fire storm when he went on an elephant hunting trip. it didn't go well with the people struggling. enter rick scott who met with juan carlos later this week.

i've ridden elephants. an elephant started chasing the jeep, my wife was in the back and she wanted to get to the front of the jeep. you heard of the elephant in the room, he didn't know the elephant in this room was an elephant. next up, a fundraiser this month, mitt romney said obama's edge with hispanic voters could spell doom for republicans. nbc news caught part of it on tape. last night he spoke at a latino summit. what did he talk about? >> if every one of our small businesses added just two employees, americans could pay more mortgages, buy more groceries. president obama decided to attack success. >> if unemployment is where it

should be and home values were going up, but the crisis in american education would be the great cause of this campaign. as president i will pursue a very bold policy of change that will restore the promise of our national education system. >> no mention by romney of i'm graduation in a speech to latinos. asked to comment after wards, he said i don't think he's been unilaterally against hearing ideas, only talking about them. and dan rather covered 11 presidential elections over the course of his career, and he thinks 2012 is a stand out race, not in a good way. >> this is by far the worst so far. i think the fact that there is so many debates in the republican primary contributed to it. i hope i'm wrong about this, but i think by the time we finish

with this campaign it will be a $3 billion campaign, but ugly enough to choke a buzzard. >> where does dan get this stuff? up next, we have new poll numbers out from key swing states from the states that will citizen the presidential race. how is it looking for presidential obama? we'll get to that next.

>> back to "hardball," a 2012 presidential race will likely come down to a handful of battleground states. the most important of them is ohio, virginia, and florida. we're learning more about where things stand there thanks to the latest poll. the race is tightening. it's near the margin of error. florida obama is up by four, virginia the same numbers, ohio, almost the same, a six point spread. so what do they tell us about the ration nationally? chuck todd is with us, and major garrett also.

when you look at these state numbers in these key states of florida, virginia, and ohio, what do they tell you about the shape of the race for the electoral college? >> number one, when an incumbent is running, you look at their number first. it matters more than the challenger number. >> do you need to be 50? >> no, but he is at a reelectable number right now at 48, but just barely. and that's where obama is. he has 48% job approval rating overall, nationally 47 in the match up nationally, and here 489/11 the likely voter modelling in there, romney moves up a little. >> so is he walking on a cliff? would the president slip? >> we haven't seen that sign yet.

the president has at the national and state level, and the state numbers are really just starting to take on some relevance, the state numbers -- >> it's wet cement. >> the numbers have not been this for him for a long -- he's stat tick. here is the thing about florida, ohio, and virginia. republicans and the republican brand vastly underperformed in all of those states by four percentage points in ohio, and 3.2 in florida. if republicans do better than half, get half of that back in their turn out modelling, then romney is in all three of those states very, very competitively, but they have to gain back at least half of the vote they gave up. >> let's talk about colorado, new mexico, and nevada. can the president count on them. >> yes, two of those three. assuming stuff doesn't step

back, colorado he is a favorite, new mexico because of hispanic voter pps nevada is the one, it's a coin flip right now. >> is the lbs helping romney? >> neff, look at nevada, north carolina, florida, i group them together because all three have unemployment rates higher than the national average and bad foreclosure issues. >> what are your observations when you see the yellow with the key swing states. in iowa i hear, even though the unemployment is down to 5%, i hear he has problems with evangelicals on same sex marriage. >> they were bad right after the caucuses because there was a concentrated 2.5.months of bad ads. in colorado and new mexico,

there is an x factor like north carolina or virginia. >> would they do it over -- >> i think he would pick richmond if he could. >> or cleveland? >> no, i disagree. the whole point, the way david thinks about this, the convention is an organizing tool, not for the week, but for the five months leading pup. >> and the places all around there, florida, virginia -- >> i think charlotte would still be in play, absolute, minneapolis, cleveland, those are good if you want to worry about labor. >> what do you make of the latest advertising push by karl rove? you don't have to like him to know he is smart. operating slightly upper middle class, just above average. she looks very well spoken, it's

not a poor person's house, that's a upper middle class home, and she doesn't have a husband around, it's a white woman, and the kids with failure to launch. is that a smart add? >> i think there are two predicates he is trying to lay down there he will reinforce or he believes a romney campaign will reinforce. i liked what i heard, i'm disappointed with the results. that is the theme. and the idea of children living at home and my retirement less certain than it was. they play on fears up and down. >> i had a romney person say to me wow, they had the same focus groups we had. it was the same focus groups. >> so this narrows the gender gab, and they can win women back, they will not get african-american or latino. >> look at northern virginia,

suburbs around philly. >> one of the most significant problem social security the president has double digit leads among women. he up by 10 and 12 in ohio. that is the challenge their trying to break. >> one more thing i want to take these states as a whole. the scary thing about these -- look, i put these three here because florida was the be all end all. >> how did tim russet, and then he said ohio, and listen, i think it's virginia. >> you agree? >> sure. >> the president can win without ohio and florida. it is hard for him -- there's a way to get there without -- >> that's what i want to spend time in virginia for. the really tough question, why is obama unable to get above 48 in job performance? >> the economic news, though better, it still mediocre at best. and the president owns the

economy. he can't not -- the president said his campaign would be about, forward, what's his most aggressive attack about romney? back ward. he did not fill in, i believe, what his second term will be about, what has been accomplished that has changed people's live first the better. what is the payoff for them -- >> did he say things were getting better? >> look at the number in the poll? >> are things getting better? >> when you look at the numbers and the housing numbers coming in, i have to say i think the most important, if you're in chicago, the single most

important thing that happened in numbers in the last ten days is housing numbers. >> that's right. the idea, that is why people feel like, yes, there is new jobs, i think the reason the economic anxiety stuck for so long is people thought they greatest invest accident, their house, didn't worth it. >> if that sticks, then that will -- >> one big asset when you're 06 years old is the house, and then they sell it and move into a condo and they have that cash to retire on. they need that kitty. and without it they will struggle. >> so will the president win the election? >> 48 is in coin flip territory. >> you're the best, nobody knows more than you. >> nobody knows more than chuck, i'll say that. thank you chuck todd and major garrett. up next, the bain scrutiny. the risks and rewards of president obama going after mitt. and catch the chris matthews show this weekend, we'll talk about that very topic, the obama campaign and plans to start nailing romney on his history at bain.

it will be shown this weekend on your local stations. >> key senate races around the

>> key senate races around the country, let's check the score board. first in virginia, according to the new poll, time kaine is leading allen by six. and bill nel sop has a four point lead over mack, not very

safe there for nelson. now to ohio, brown opened up a big lead over mandel. up 14 points now. up in massachusetts where i just was, it's a tight rate with brown and warren, a new poll shows a one point race. this is a barn burner rate up there, a nail biter if you will. no difference there, we'll be

back to "hardball," make no mistake, obama says romney's record at bain may make him a goose businessman, but not a good president. bain strategy holds pitfalls for president was a headline today. we have steve mcman and todd harris. it settles down to this is the main thrust and attack line. so he needs it as a weapon. the other guy needs to push it out of the way or deflect it, right? >> what's fascinating is normally an issue of this

magnitude, this is the stuff you would see prosecuted in the fall postlabor day. these are the heavy guns of the campaign, and the obama campaign made the decision they have to -- they have to undercut his ability to present himself as a job creator and businessman. they're throwing everything at him now so they can introduce him to the american people. >> so he didn't have a lot of charges, they were cost cutting companies and flipping them -- >> it's easy because it's not true. that's not fair, who are these people in television that keep saying -- >> they're people that worked at a factory two years after mitt romney -- two years after mitt romney. but this is the problem. if you're going to turn this into a character attack -- that's what it is. these ads are an attack.

>> everything is about character. >> you can't talk family or business -- >> you can talk about character. >> you were doing such a good job you were right. normally this would be prosecuted in october not right now. this is a definitional moment for romney. his vote is about 46. you don't usually see a vote outstrip a favorable rating like that. people don't like this guy, it's a referendum on the president. the president wants to introduce mitt romney, his record as not just somebody that created the jobs he said he created. >> so make it about him as much as about obama when did that work last? >> four years ago. >> it works any time you come in with somebody who is not well defined. clinton was defined, they smoothered it in the crib, that's what he's trying to do now. >> he's saying you'll end up like me? he's saying i'm a role model for

american success. >> he says i should be president because i was good and successful at bain. >> he says i have experience creating jobs. and he's -- >> it's his claim to fame. >> and they were successful. 80% of the company -- >> how can obama not attack the argument of why he's president. >> my point is if you're going to make a character attack like this, you better get your facts straight and they didn't. that's the problem. that's why cory booker is calling it nauseating and ed ren dell saying these are cheap. >> they got their health benefits taken away, their pension taken away. >> and who was running bain when this happened? >> last night, president obama -- update here, president obama criticized romney's business sense, let's listen to the president on this point you can respond. >> he is saying my 25 years in

private sector gives me a special understanding of how our economy works. well if that's true, why is he pedaling the same bad ideas that brought our economy to the brink of collapse? most good business people i know, if something doesn't work, they do something different. >> this morning on fox tv, governor romney was asked if he agrees with rush limbaugh that president obama is running a campaign against capitalism. >> there's a tough panel to work, by the way. give me a break. there's an easy audience. what do you make of that? >> the obama campaign is running an ad --

>> so he's communist. >> calling romney a vampire. they are saying, when you do what he did at bain capital -- >> when you suck the money out of something, when you suck all the nutrients out of something and leave it dead, what is that? >> who was head of bain that they believe he is a vampire. this factory that closed they talk about. who was head of bain when it closed? was it mitt romney or not? who was head of bain when -- >> they took $20 million and left the company unable to do business and these poor people -- >> if private equity is so bad, why did the president take millions from private equity firms in 2008? why did he just have a fund-raiser the day this ad went on the air, had a fund-raiser. >> because he needs television time. >> he's willing to take money from these vampires? yes.

take money from venture capitalists and -- >> he's saying there's something wrong with a guy that -- >> no, no, that's not what his ad says. that's what the president said when he politicized his nato summit. that's not what his ad says. >> i agree with you. the first ad was pretty good saying obama will do keystone. i think the president should do keystone. this ad looks like it's airing in iowa, north carolina and virginia, the states we're talking about, swing states. let's watch. >> day 1, president romney announces deficit reductions ending the obama era of big government, helping secure our kids' futures. president romney stands up to china on trade and demands they play by the rules. president romney begins

repealing job killing regulations. >> on an obama super pac, with a web video on their version of the romney administration. let's liston the counterattack. >> what would a romney presidency be like. >> corporations are people, my friends. >> i like being able to fire people that provide services to me. >> i'm not concerned about the very poor. >> don't try and stop the foreclosure process, let it run its course and hit the bottom. >> there you have it. first of all, how does he declare the end of deficit spending. what role does the president play in that? >> executive order or something? no more. >> he declares the end of deficit spending? >> you could start by coming out with a balances budget amendment. >> that's how you declare it? >> at least we're in favor of ending deficit spending. >> what about day three? we've been talking about the balances -- is he going to go down to the republicans in congress and say, you have to cut defense? is he going to say, you have to pass a huge debt deal and not walkway from it like john boehner did? what will he do? >> john boehner did not walk away from it.

president obama changed the terms. >> i mean this subjectively, the worst thing that happens you win it. the house, senate and presidency and cut the hell out of medicare, you're gone in two years. >> someone has to do something about medicare. what do you want to do? >> i have a whole theory. not sure i can explain it tonight. we work in the hallway and rationalize our medical system. >> it won't be done on day one. >> a lot less paperwork is key to that. good question. we'll get to that when we get to the lehr hour. basic question about mitt romney, does he want to be president of the united states or just the 1%? you're watching hardball, the place for politics.

let me finish tonight with this. mitt romney has one pitch and since this is his only pitch, he says it again and again. he is a man of business, someone who spent his life in business, doing it, experiencing it and why he rather than the president to do best for the country and the important thing is whether he would take it and use it for the country or take the office of the presidency and use it for his fellow business people. will he serve the people or the

ceos. the 99% or 1%, basic useful question to ask. what if he favors the wealthy like himself? what if he cuts taxes for wealthy and eliminates environmental and safety regulations and takes down the regulations that caused the crash of '0 nine and what if he does the wheerl dealers that caused the hell done for george bush but what if the does it all over again? this is the danger. we elect presidents to look out for the people. business people like mitt romney already have a voice in our national government. they're called lobbyist, push for lower taxes on the rich, corporations, work with friends in congress to pull back on corporations to make life easier for them and make more money. would we like one of these lobbyists to be our next president and want someone who only thinks about big business and what taxes we pay and what working conditions we endure and protections we get for food safety, airline safety, safety of our investments from wall street sharpies? is thawh