waiting for it -- >> way too early. >> historians will refer to it as when willie spoke. >> that's uncle willie. >> if it's way too early? >> it's "morning joe." we'll see you back here tomorrow. stick around now for chuck. thank you, william. romney's rivals were right. they always said it would come down to texas, but instead of being down and out, texas gives romney enough delegates to clinch the nomination. and he's not the lone star in the news today. it's some down ballot results that are turning heads. we'll have more on that. and romney raises cash with the number one birth certificate authenticity enthusiast. is this a distraction that romney can afford to have with less than five months to go before election day? and from raising money to spending money, we're taking a deep dive into the scientific strategy that the obama campaign is using to make sure their message sticks inside your head kind of like the old days --

♪ by menan ♪ let's get to the first reads, four months, texas was going to be mitt romney's alamo, his rivals looked to the lone star state and its mammoth amount of 155 delegates as the place that they were going to turn this race around. >> we're going to be able to go compete in south carolina and florida and nevada and obviously in texas and -- >> i'm very proud that rick perry is campaigning for me and he believes we'll get 155 delegates in texas at the end of may. governor perry who's supporting me thinks that eventually when texas votes it will be 155-0 in texas delegates. >> ronald reagan didn't get out of the race. he was able to stand tall in may and win the state of texas which we have every intention of doing. >> i thought that little trip down memory lane was worth it since last night it wasomney oi

delegates in his column and so we can call him now the projected republican nominee. also in texas last night, the bigger race was the senate race, lut governor david dewhurst who got stamped with the establishment label by a boatload of national conservatives from washington. he failed to avoid a runoff and he's now focused on a race at the end of july. he won just 45% of the republican primary vote to succeed senator kay bailey hutchison making him frankly the underdog which will likely be a very low turnout runoff against ted cruz, the favorite of tea party and conservatives. a runoff in the dead of summer with two months instead of one month, that's an establishment candidate's worst nightmare. cruz declared victory and challenged dewhurst to five debates in the next two months. >> this race is ground zero in the battle between the moderate

establishment and the conservative tea party tidal wave that is sweeping this country. and if he wants to make the case to the people of texas that he thinks i'm an amnesty-supporting, china-loving, pinko liberal, then i encourage him to do so. in person. >> all right. well, we're going to be watching that closely, by the way. one member of congress did lose, sell vester reyes, but in democratic primary. there weren't a lot of upsets, a few congressional runoffs. we'll get into that later in the show. mitt romney didn't have a victory speech last night but he was trumped by trump, romney said, quote, i'm humble to have won enough delegates to become the republican party's 2012 presidential nominee. but it's indicative of the way things have been for romney that the message he clinched 1144 was delivered at a closed fund-raiser and it was by donald trump.

>> 1144, you know, what that is? in about an hour or so, that number will be superceded and we will have effectively our nominee. he will be the man. >> when romney arrived in las vegas, he did it in the shadow of the giant trump plane and all day trump doubled down on birther talk on every possible platform that donald trump could find. >> a lot of people are questioning his birth certificate. they're questioning the authenticity of his birth certificate. there are many people that don't agree with that birth certificate. they don't think it's authentic, wolf. >> i don't know when you say many people who don't agree -- >> many people. >> like who? >> many people. >> give me a name of an authority -- >> there's many people -- >> give me names. >> i don't give names. there's many questions about the authenticity of the birth certificate. you can believe it or you don't

have to believe it. certainly there are many, many questions. i actually think it's a great issue for mitt romney. >> whoever this "many people" is, move over deep throat, right? well, with the obama campaign running a video comparing romney unfavorably to john mccain, trump seemed to taunt the obama campaign. he twitted, barack obama is practically begging mitt romney to disavow the birth certificate crowd. mccain lost the election, don't let it happen again. the obama campaign gleefully fired off a statement, quote, if mitt romney lacks the backbone to stand up to a charlatan like donald trump because he's so concerned about lining his campaign's pockets, what does that say about the kind of president he would be? this trump fiasco was entirely preventable, you could have seen it happening from miles away and in the end it was newt gingrich of all people that ended up having to clean up the romney campaign's mess. >> governor romney's not

distracted. the republican party's not distracted. we believe that this is an american-born, job-killing president. other people may believe that he's born somewhere else and still kills jobs. but that's an argument over background. >> we'll be talking with both the romney and obama campaigns in a few minutes. and finally the ad wars. this week team obama is spending more than $8 million on advertising and they're outspending team romney 4-1. anyone can claim they know which states are the true battleground but let's let the money tell the story. still think north carolina's no a battleground? the romney campaign sure thinks so. they're spending half a million on advertising there this week. that's just one of four states where the romney campaign is putting its money. they're also spending in iowa, ohio, virginia, those are the only four states they have money up. they're getting an assist from the superpac crossroads in those states plus six more as you see pop up on the map there. in other superpac spending the pro-obama superpack is shelling

out money in florida, ohio, and virginia. the campaign is spending in those states plus four more as you see, colorado, florida, ohio, as you see there, north carolina, iowa, nevada, and new hampshire. if you want to see where this presidential election fight is playing out look no further than virginia and north carolina. look at this little thing we've crunched. six of the top ten hottest ad markets right now are in just those two states. the norfolk area, roanoke, richmond, greensboro, raleigh-durham and charlotte, those are five of the six. columbus, ohio, sits at four, rounding out the top ten most saturated media markets are cities in colorado and ohio. they are being fought on gop turf. these are all states that george w. bush carried in 2004. and they are that john kerry never contested, colorado, virginia, and north carolina. all right, while mitt romney has secured the 1144 he needs to clinch the republican nomination, the candidate is sharing the spotlight with a supporter.

his name is donald trump. romney's press secretary joins me now. good morning. >> good morning, chuck. >> i want to start with this donald trump business. any regrets by the campaign of spending the day that you clinch the nomination with donald trump? >> well, donald trump's a supporter, you know, governor romney's made it clear that they disagree on some issues like you do with some of your supporters, many of your supporters, you'll not agree on everything. but the one thing that all of our supporters can agree on is that mitt romney would be a better president than president obama, can actually get this economy turned around and create jobs which this president has failed to do. >> well, there's two types of disagreeing with supporters. there's disagreeing on policy issues and then there's what donald trump spent all day yesterday talking about, the president's birthplace and his birth certificate and a lot of people think it's distateful rhetoric. i want to read you a quote from

a presidential candidate you're familiar with, governor romney, this is what he said in october when he heard anti-mormon rhetoric. we should remember that decency and civility are values too, one of the speakers that follow me has crossed the line, i think poisonous language doesn't advance our cause. it's never softened a single heart nor changed a single mind. he was referring to anti-mormon rhetoric from a pastor at that time. this was in october of last year. a lot of people think what donald trump says is vicious and rhetoric and should be denounced. does governor romney not agree? >> governor romney has said he believes the president was born in the united states. he said it repeatedly. he said that he thinks the issue is closed. and that he's focused on jobs and the economy. and, you know, democrats put out a web video on this yesterday. they can talk about donald trump all they want. we're focused on jobs and the economy. how mitt romney's going to get people back to work and i think that's what voters care about. so, you're going to hear a lot,

you know, of stuff on the sidelines, you know, whether it be from people outside the campaigns or the media, but at the end of the day, voters want to get a job. they want their paychecks to go up. they want gas prices to go down. and those are the things that governor romney's focused on. >> i understand that. but i guess why -- the campaign chooses who they raise money with. why raise money with somebody who is using what a lot of people believe is poisonous language? >> look, as, again, you know, they don't agree on every subject and if you look, you know, the obama campaign refuses to denounce bill maher when he said extremely hateful things, so you're going to see things on both sides of the aisle, you know, as jay carney said, you can't be responsible for everything your supporters say. governor romney's made it very clear where he stands on the subject and that he's going to focus on what's important to voters which is jobs and the economy. getting people back to work and that's what voters care about at the end of the day. >> big difference between bill maher and donald trump, though, is the president is not sharing

a stage with bill maher. >> he's taken plenty of money from him which he could turn away if he wanted to. again, you know, this week we're talking about how president obama's hostile to job creators. i think that's an important message to get out. when you look at what he's done over the past four years, whether it be obamacare with his adding extra costs on to businesses so they can't hire employers. whether it be something like solyndra where he's rewarding campaign donors to make -- >> let me ask you this, because on solyndra. you talk about, you say the obama administration's hostile to job creators. at the same time solyndra was a part of a solar energy industry that the administration chose to help invest in. can you be both hostile to business and invest in a potential growing business? >> here's the difference. i'm glad you brought that up. the difference is that president obama thinks that politicians can make a better decision of

how to grow our economy than people in the private sector and in the real-world economy. you know, they're picking winners and losers, and so far, you know, the only people that have lost out are taxpayers. and, you know, the workers at those companies as well. what governor romney thinks we need to do is take the burdens off job creators. you know, while president obama's rewarding his campaign donors, he's handicapping other job creators. whether it be with obamacare, higher taxes, regulations, you know, these are the types of things that are making it impossible for people in the real world economy without -- you know, if you're not one of his donors, you're not going to get picked. >> well, let's go back to this issue of government investment into the private sector. it's sort of -- it's been around with the federal government. there would be no space program without the federal government. the airline industry wouldn't have gotten off the ground without the federal government. the auto industry wouldn't have gotten off the ground without

the federal government, wouldn't have been saved a couple of times without interventions of the federal government be it back in the early '80s or with what just happened recently. does that mean governor romney's going to turn back the clock and the government will never invest in the private sector under a romney presidency? >> there's -- there's no -- you know, no one's questioning if there's a role for the federal government to play. what we see with president obama is he spent billions of dollars hand picking winners and losers. he promised with the passage of the stimulus that unemployment would be at 6% or lower currently. and it's not. it's not even close. because he doesn't fundamentally understand what it takes to get the economy going again. so, rather than spending his time rewarding campaign donors with taxpayer dollars that eventually were lost in many cases, he should have been focusing his time on taking the burdens off of these businesses, whether it be, you know, regulations that are hampering their ability to do things.

whether it be the taxes. there are all these burdens that he's put on, you know, folks in the real-world economy that they can't thrive under those burdens. and so, you know, what governor romney would do, you know, should he be elected, is to make sure that we create an environment that's friendly to job creators. you can't be hostile to job creators and still be friendly to jobs. it just doesn't work that way. >> i want to ask you one other question. you put an iphone app out. it misspelled america. how did -- i got to ask, how did something like this happen? >> mistakes happen. you know, i don't think any voter cares about a typo at the end of the day. the -- an update has been sent to apple for approval and it will be updated as soon as that's approved. >> all right, andrea saul in boston with the romney campaign, andrea, thanks for coming on. >> thanks, chuck. that's righall right. we heard from the romney campaign, and it's the obama's

campaign turn. we're talking all sorts of things including letting her respond from andrea saul. and did the white house go too negative too fast? still to come, forget about hunches. the obama campaign thinks it's discovered the secret science of political advertising. there's a method to their message madness. we're going to deep dive it. but first, a look ahead, at the president's schedule. signs a bill today, export-import. we'll get of talk of bipartisanship for about 20 minutes. you're watching "the daily rundown" only on msnbc. ♪ let me hear you let me hear you let me hear you ♪ unner,marathon r in absolute perfect physical condition and i had a heart attack right out of the clear blue... he was just... "get me an aspirin"... yeah... i knew that i was doing the right thing, when i gave him the bayer. i'm on an aspirin regimen...

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well, the pro-romney super pac american crossroads is deflecting the attacks on romney's record at bain capital with a counterstrategy. the pac is out with ads accusing president obama of engaging in public equity investments with his use of taxpayer dollars. stephanie cutter is the obama campaign deputy campaign manager and she joins me now. >> good morning. >> good morning. i want to start with that, is both the romney campaign and the web video. yesterday and we saw crossroads out with a tv ad that if -- is this a fair countercharge -- basically counterattack, if you will, your bain argument about mitt romney profiting off picking winners and losers and then going and looking at the president's record of investing taxpayer money in things like solyndra and the energy issue where winners and losers were picked as well? >> well, no, it's not fair, but that's sort of aside the point with the romney campaign.

let's just take a look at the facts of solyndra. we used the same competitive process that the previous administration used. politics didn't play any role and that's a known fact. and the president's not picking winners and losers. he's making strategic investment to promote clean energy. as a result of the clean energy investments that we've made, almost a quarter million jobs have been created in just the clean energy sector and we've doubled the renewable portfolio. we just heard the romney campaign say they don't believe in clean energy invest menments which i guess is no surprise given the amount of big oil money they're taking in this campaign. now, let's compare that to what mitt romney did with bain capital. mitt romney's role at bain capital was to make profits for his investors and for himself, there's nothing wrong about that but it's not about job creation and it certainly doesn't allow you to be the financial wizard that you claim to be. he wanted to krat a profit for himself and his investors.

as a result of that there were winners and losers, but mitt romney always won. but workers who lost their jobs, their pensions, their health care benefits, companies went bankrupt, communities were devastated. all because mitt romney wanted to make a profit. again, there's nothing wrong with that. but the way he's talking about it is just wrong. it doesn't qualify him to be president. and it doesn't qualify him to turn this economy around. now, let's compare that back to what the president did. the president was making investments for the country because he's not going to cede an entire industry to companies like china and india. and as a result the company -- the country is prospering from that. >> then what is the lesson learned from solyndra? no lesson learned? how is it that all this money ends up getting lost in this company? i mean, what was the misread here? is it the misread that the industry is not yet viable? is it a misread that there's a bad set of executives? what was the misread of solyndra? >> there are plenty other examples that were successful but you're asking me to compare it to bain capital which i just

did, chuck, and it's not comparable. the president is making thebes investments on the behalf of the american people to develop an entire industry that we refuse to cede to china and india, that's not comparable to mitt romney. he said his bain capital experience qualifies him to run the economy. well, is that what we really want? do we want to overleverage companies, bankrupt them, and leave workers holding the bag but even in bankruptcy mitt romney walking away with a hefty profit. mitt romney's picking winners and losers but he always wins. that's not what the american people are looking for. we've seen what happened. >> there's hand wringing over the tone -- there's hand wringing over the tone of the campaign and i know some folks in chicago like to call these folks bed wetters sometimes when it comes to these things. but i want to play you a clip of david brooks on "meet the press" and ask you to respond to it. >> i question the obama decision to go after to start negative. they've decided to focus on a negative way and this seems to be self-destructive. i think starting negative not

only distracts you from what you should be talking about but also damages his personal reputation. >> and, stephanie, in today's politico there's a senior democratic strategist active in the obama campaign who is quoted as saying there is some validity to the point that we lose something, unquote, by attacking mitt romney. how do you respond? >> well, i -- here's my response to that. i don't know who the senior democratic official is but they should go on record if that's what they believe. in terms of a response to david brooks, i guess he didn't see the $25 million that we have on air talking about president obama's record and turning this country around, turning the economy around, after being handed a disastrous financial crisis. the biggest financial crisis that we've had since the depression, and in just 26 months we've created more than 4.2 million private sector jobs. and, you know, that's all for viewers to see. $25 million. >> you think the commentary is more negative than what you have on the paid airwaves?

>> the commentary by whom? >> you feel like as if the commentary and the press clippings are more negative than what's actually being spent on the tv ads themselves? >> well, i guess that means the press are covering what they consider to be a more sensational story by focusing on the negatives. there's a lot that we're doing to talk about the president's record all across this country, you know, people being covered with pre-existing conditions where they were denied coverage before. women getting preventive care to prevent breast cancer. the revival of the auto industry. the creation of tens of thousands of manufacturing jobs for the first time in almost two decades. exports, we're almost doubling our exports from when we took office so that american businesses are, again, making things here that the rest of the world buys. there's lots that we're talking about about this president's record, but, chuck, this is a presidential race. presidential races are about choices. and we have an obligation to ensure that what mitt romney says, he's held accountable for. when he says that he's a

financial wizard who took that experience to massachusetts and turned that economy around, well, we have an obligation to correct that record because it's actually not true. when he's making broad pronouncements -- >> okay. >> -- about creating jobs in this economy, we have an obligation to talk about what exactly his economic policies are, $5 trillion in tax cuts. that, you know, not paid for which will increase our deficit. tax cuts -- >> very quickly -- >> -- geared toward millionaires and billionaires, we've seen it before and it's not going to work and it won't work again. >> very quickly and i have to go. five days ago, there's no president obama, no vice president bitden to help the democrats there. what's -- when election comes and goes, in wisconsin, in the recall, will democratic allies of yours feel satisfied that the obama campaign did everything they could to help tom barrett? >> well, this is sort of like a ritual for us, chuck. >> i know it is. >> i think that people on the

ground are looking at the significant resources that we are putting into that rales. whether -- with people organizing on the ground. using obama for america organization which is one of the best in the country and certainly very powerful in wisconsin, raising money for barrett. sending surrogates on the ground for barrett. if you think that the secret weapon here is sending president obama, then, you know, i'm pleased that you believe that. but i think that actually having people organizing and volunteering and turning out the vote and doing everything they can that actually effects an election is more powerful. and i think that the barrett campaign -- >> does that mean the result, though, should tell us something about november? >> i think the barrett campaign is pleased with what has been done by the dnc. >> does the result tell us something about november? >> no, i don't think so. this is a gubernatorial race with a guy who was recalled, and a, you know, a challenger trying to get him out of office.

it has nothing to do with president obama at the top of the ticket. and it certainly doesn't have anything to do with mitt romney at the top of the republican ticket. so, no, i don't think, you know, there may be some that will, you know, predict that it means doom for us in wisconsin in the fall elections, but i think they'll be proven wrong. >> all right. stephanie cutter, deputy campaign manager for the obama campaign out of chicago. thank you, stephanie. income up, pnext up, pat su glenn and bob dylan in shades. it's an error in his remarks that is making news today. but first today's trivia question, who was the last democrat to win texas in a general presidential election? tweet me @chucktodd o or @dailyrundown.

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the stories we're watching this morning, the u.n. human rights council will hold a special session on syria on friday. it's a direct response to the massacre, more than 100 civilians in houla, and china and russia said today they would still oppose military intervention. president awarded the medal of freedom to more than a dozen people at the white house tuesday from bob dylan and tont morrison to shimon peres, but he had an awkward moment. >> before one trip across enemy lines, resistance fighters told him that jews were being murdered on a massive scale, and smuggled him into the warsaw ghetto and a polish death camp to see for himself. >> well, what the president meant to say was a german death camp in nazi occupied poland. the white house has said the president misspoke. the polish prime minister called

it ignorance and is demanding apology. with so much talk on political ad spending, you saw what i laid out earlier today, where the battle is actually being engaged on the tv airwaves. the obama campaign isn't relying on hunches to see which ads are effective. they aren't even relying on focus groups. they say they can prove it real time. on the deep dive we'll talk about how the obama thinks it can win elections. and bayer advanced aspirin relieved my pain fast. it helps me get back in the game. but don't take his word for it. put bayer advanced aspirin to the test for yourself at fastreliefchallenge.com.

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spots. it's nine states in one buy and five in another. and, in fact, they aren't even buying every tv market in those states. sometimes it's a two-minute ad for one day in columbus. sometimes it's a local spanish language ad in tampa on another market and their tv and web ads have hit a wide range of subjects, from bain capital and the koch brothers to energy, ethics, and health care and whether some wonder if it's scattered, apparently there's a method to the madness. it began last november that set the message for the campaign if it wasn't for an nbc embed in des moines noticing might not have been picked up by a lot of folks in the national media. here's the ad. >> it all starts with you making a decision to get involved. because we've got so much more to do. call the number on your screen or visit joinbarackobama.com to let me know you're in. >> well, those numbers apparently changed depending on where you saw the ad. now, the obama campaign has hooked up with a group called the analyst institute, it's a

group of democratic researchers testing the best way to reach voters and what messages may change the way they vote. instead of relying on focus groups and surveys, the traditional way to test campaign messaging, they can see how campaign messages are actually processed in real time. so, researchers seek out slivers of the electorate to see which messages they respond to, a strategy called basically microtargeting in terms of presidential ads, it means speaking directly to certain voting blocs like seniors, veterans, or students. >> to you and your loved ones, medicare is personal. and to a president raised by his grandparents, it's personal, too. >> we have a sacred trust to make sure we are doing everything we can to heal all of their wounds. >> with hard work and student aid, his life was transformed. today, higher education means even more for the middle-class. >> so, those ads ran and researchers follow up with those groups to see what resonates and use that to determine how best to spend campaign cash further. so, the obama team's bain capital ads are a perfect

example. this two-minute ad called seal ran in five battleground states for one day only and it was a total cost of less than $100,000 and they were able to measure traffic in those five states as compared to those states where the ad didn't run at all just going viral and giving it an accurate read on whether it has an impact. granted the experiment is still in the early stages but the results will shape their strategies as the summer goes on and could be the key to the victory in november if they get one. joining us is sasha, author of "political campaigns" one of all of us political geeks to get into. you exposed this and this inspired this deep dive. what have you learned on reporting on the campaign ad experiments that basically changed the way you view tv advertising now? >> i think as you say sort of look at the buys when they come

out and we assume we are seeing the strategy in practice, right, in eight states, these are the eight most important states or these are the most important markets, here are the issues that they think are the things that they should be messaging on. what's really happening is that the campaign is going through a period, this is a period that will probably last through the summer and possibly into the fall where they're vetting messages and they just have much better tools than we've had in the past for sort of tracking which ones are actually moving. >> how many different tv ads have they run now? they may run eight -- are we close to a dozen specific different types of tv ads they've run? >> i think it's more than that probably. they announced -- which is very different from presidential campaigns in the past. >> right. >> they announced a $25 million buy but it came out in a totally scattershot way geographically in terms of messages and then they also contrast the impact of different messages over different delivery messages, by mail, and tv and broadcast tv and satellite you're able to measure. >> the different ways they measure, not only some of it is

polling, some of it is online, some of it is voluntary. what are some of the different tools that maybe we don't know about? >> right, this is an experiment. we're not using the term experiment generically to refer to testing. these are randomized controlled trials. this is basically what pharmaceutical companies use to test whether drugs are working. instead of sending out drugs and placebos and randomly assigning them, they are sending out pieces of mail or tv ads and rob-calling and if they are polling continuously as they are for all sorts of reasons in the campaign, you are able to see who moves. if i ask you if you knew that mitt romney had laid off people at bain, would you be more or less likely to vote for him, that's a totally artificial setting to be asking you. >> the voters are being prompted. you are prompting and see how they react in real time on their couch. >> focus group is people are sitting around paid to have an opinion and polls are asking you to sort of project what you might think if you learn something which you might

already know which is a totally bizarre concept when you think about it. here because you're polling before they get the message and after they get the message and they don't know that they're understand observationure able to actually track movements, so you're not just tracking who is undecided we're talking about who is persuadable by a certain message. >> stuart stevens likes to tell hils staff, reported by a colleague of mine, saying the obama campaign is e-harmony, we're monster.com, and we want to be focused on one message only, jobs. what you are describing is almost a scientific way that they are trying to find their coalition of 50.1% of voters using what e-harmony says they almost do had is a 25-point personality test. >> i think the important thing the paradigm of undecides is not the right one to be thinking about who they are targeting. they want to see who is persuadable by certain messages over certain media over certain times and this finally is a tool where you can isolate cause and effect for a certain message. >> it won't be until october that we'll be able to actually

see what the methods in may, what they were doing right now, we'll learn in october what worked, is that essentially what we're learning here? >> we'll see particular messages and markets and geography and also which channels they're using to deliver them to certain slivers of the electorate. >> josh isenberg, we'll have you back so we can sit there and go back and unwind. very good stuff. read the very long piece on slate. thank you, sasha. the update panel will be here next to decide whether stuffing with trump could put romney in a slump. no, don't sit there, i'm not talking about this from a campaign dump. all right, the white house soup of the day, crab corn. i don't got much else about this. it's fine. i've got no comment. and don't forget you can always follow the show on facebook. you're watching "the raley rundown" only on msnbc. ♪

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on the same day that mitt romney hit the magic number of 1144 to seal the nomination he raised money with someone who still has a pet issue in 2012. >> well, a lot of people don't agree with that birth certificate. >> but the state of hawaii of authorizes it. donald, donald, you're beginning to sound a little ridiculous, i have to tell you. >> no, i think you are, wolf. >> my only disagreement with wolf there is "beginning." you think donald trump is sounding ridiculous is long-known fact, i think. i think that's beener is er icey many states. let's bring in our panel, cnbc contributor and former bush 43 white house political director sara taylor fagan and dan ball. sara, let me start with you, your candidate is about to go over the top at 1144. >> yes. >> i can't imagine george w. bush would have said, okay, i'm going to be with mitt romney on the day i hit the magic

number -- or be with a donald trump on the day. anybody that would overshadow his moment of hitting the magic number 2,000, it seemed like an odd decision. >> i think it was unfortunate timing -- >> you knew it was going to happen. >> yeah, you could have predicted it and scheduling fund-raisers and events and moving around the country is harder than it looks, and so i just think it was probably an unfortunate set of circumstances that drew them to that date. let's not forget, though, that donald trump's latest business venture is entertainment and i don't think that's lost on anyone. >> well, it's not lost, because mitt romney's making the choice to stand next to him. >> yeah, he sure is. >> that's the problem the romney campaign seems to struggle to dig out of. >> sara's right, the issue of timing is probably somewhat coincidental, and yet, you know, when you get that endorsement, you're buying everything that comes with it and the romney team has to know that and they've got to figure out some way to put some more distance between themselves and trump than they've been able to do. >> well, it's funny, i don't --

>> like going to court him. >> it's funny, i wonder if we're just seeing the way the campaign is shaping up that neither campaign believes they're not talking to the swing voters right now. and the romney campaign will say, do you know what, none of this matters, we'll talk to swing voters in the fall. so, are they right? >> i think they're trying to do exactly what you are saying, secure their base early, get the swing voters in the fall. i think, though, what the obama campaign is doing, though, is laying down a predicate that will actually matter in the fall, because what they're doing they're questioning mitt romney's very credibility to be the president of the united states based upon the argument he's making around being sort of this chief investment officer for the country. and people -- and they're saying that's not really a good argument. mitt romney and the story this morning said the economy is made up of the collection of businesses. that's actually not how the economy and gdp is made up. it's made up of income and output and worker, labor, and all sorts of economic inputs that even his advisers sort of recognize and i think that's a fundamental difference in the

economy. >> when does he make the pivot, one thing i noticed and i've been surprised of, in the month since santorum dropped out, it's only been five weeks, maybe six, he's still speaking to republican audiences in his rhetoric. his rhetoric is not yet doesn't seem designed to talk to suburban america. why is that? >> well, i think if you look at where polling is today, though, he's doing pretty well among independents, so i think the difference here is that unlike 2008 independent voters seem to be lining -- aligning much more with republican philosophy after the first 3 1/2 years of president obama. and so i would argue that while he's speaking, you know, somewhat to republicans, still coalescing the base, his message is resonating with independents and is ultimately the swing voters that will decide the election. >> do you feel like you've seen him? i feel like i haven't seen him yet talk to -- that he's still using rhetoric to target specific conservative groups rather than -- the trump is an outized example. >> the trump thing is an

anomaly, so it's donald trump and we've got to put that off to the side. i think that this is just the way that mitt romney is. i'm not sure that mitt romney is somebody who who thinks about o segments the way he is dealing with audiences. he has a basic message that he has tried to put out which is an economic message and a message saying this president has failed the country on the biggest test he has had which is to create jobs. how they get to the swing voters in the end i'm not sure. i think they think it goes through the economic message. >> to the last segment i had. it is one message that the romney campaign believes they have. it seems that the obama campaign is trying a bunch of messages. >> they are targeted at disqualifying the one message that romney has. there is a pattern that romney has to be careful about whether it is rush limbaugh or rick santorum or now donald trump he won't stand up and say you are

going too far. let's put the crazy back in the cage. >> i want to take a look at the battle ground. >> i think this is just noise. it means nothing. >> we look at the tv ad spending. i know i surprised you with some numbers earlier this morning. first trivia we asked who was the last democrat to win texas in a presidential general election the answer jimmy carter the last time the south was a competitive battle ground overall for the democrats. carter became the first president elected from the deep south since zachary taylor in 1848. i look at her, and i just want to give her everything.

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let's bring back our panel. there are two ways of looking at a battle ground map. you go with your hunch.

if you went by hunches -- i say this because apparently there are hunches that north carolina's not really in the battle ground. look at this. if you look at the most saturated tv markets where the most money is being spent it's in north carolina, virginia, two states that you guys didn't have to compete for in 2004. is it fair to say that if this is where the campaign is being fought in october, problem for romney. >> i think you see reflective in the spending is the romney campaign is trying to put the states away early to focus on pennsylvania and michigan, places to put the president on defense. >> this map is sort of the seems a larger hurdle for romney than the national polls do. >> it has been from the beginning. he has to take back a lot of states that obama took away from the republicans the last time. unless he can put michigan or

pennsylvania or wisconsin -- >> he is missing one industrial -- >> he has to force obama to play on obama turf somewhere. >> this strategy, they think they have to sweep the floor that they are spending ad money in and then win one more in the industrial midwest. this is romney. >> it is a tall order. playing on traditionally republican turf. >> if you look where the country is headed over the next 20 years you will see states like pennsylvania and wisconsin and michigan being republican and we are battling in nevada and arizona and texas. >> shameless plugs, go. >> i want to shout out for our graphics department which has a wonderful battleground map. >> after you download the nbc

app. >> my brother principal of kramer middle school announced a blended learning model. kids will spend half time online learning. that's it for this edition of "the daily rundown." we'll see you back here tomorrow. do democrats still have a chance. that race is not as over as the obama campaign. coming up next on msnbc, chris jansing. . at the forecast boston to new york to dc chances of showers with the front across the area. not a complete washout but could be an issue. dallas a potential for severe thunderstorms, oklahoma city at least down towards phoenix. l.a. looking good travel-wise.

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