votes dp down today with the paycheck fairness act. seriously, someone explain to me how you can't be for paycheck fairness between men and women. does anyone want to challenge me on that? what's wrong with you people? seriously, what's wrong with republicans on this? i need to know. will willie? >> stick around for chuck. a dead heat. 60 months after a protester took over the capitol, the wisconsin battle comes to another nail biting close today. can governor scott walker survive his recall fight? should president obama have done more? but is this a battle 16 months in the making or 16 years? how wisconsin is simply another proxy war in a larger political battle. coming together one week after praising mitt romney's business record, president clinton rallies for president obama in new york picking add jek it if i was adjectives that aren't so sterling warning it could be a calamity. obama's most irrepressible wing

man. plus, you toss out our diplomats, we're going to toss out yours, remains defiant as more deaths are reported in the ongoing conflict. a busy day. good morning from josnew york, e 5, 2012. this is chuck todd. maybe the biggest tuesday of the year until this coming november. let's get right to my first reads of the morning. history could look back and call it the age of polarization, an era not simply about winning but utterly delegitimizing your opponent and not accepting defeat at the ballot box. go in for the political kill by any means necessary. this bitter period in american politics started with the clinton impeachment. it's given us our most closely divided elections in american history, 2000 and 2004. it's brought us 5-4 decision from a sharply divided supreme court which the public increasingly views as politicide. now the age of polarization has

delivered today's historic recall election in wisconsin. this hour voters are deciding whether to fire governor scott walker and replace him with milwaukee mayor tom barrett. walker, who you could argue was handed a legitimate fiscal problem, didn't just push through pension reforms. he decided to crush public sector unions in a political war. and now labor unions and state democrats want to punish walker. it's the height of political combat and may be our favorite cliche but today does come down to turnout. wisconsin is so divided that persuadables are gone. they told supporters not to leave anything on the table. >> we were in west salem, we were in altoona, we were in stevens point, and now we're here in the south side of milwaukee. we're not conceding any vote anywhere across the state of wisconsin. i'm here tonight to ask for your vote to move wisconsin forward. >> it's like a heavyweight boxing match. and in this corner we have scott walker with his millions and

millions of dollars of out-of-state dollars, and in this corner we have tom barrett and he's got you. that's who he's got. >> the public is caught in the middle. if there are undecided voters, from what i'm told 0, then they are folks like this. they may like some of walker's reforms but they simply don't like walker and his tone or style. last night he argued it's those reforms they should focus on not him. >> there's a lot of voters out there, a lot about the voters out there kind of scratching their heads wondering what this recall is all about, right? because it's certainly not about the things they said it was about last fall. i mean, think about it. they don't talk about reforms anymore. why? because they're working. >> remember, it wasn't about the reforms, it was about the whole point of collective bargaining that tipped this over the edge. now organized labor, whose power has been fading since walter mondale got his clock cleaned by ronald reagan has treated wisconsin like a last stand, but democrats have not gone all in.

president's 11th hour tweet was a prime example of how reluctant the white house has been to engage. the president said in a tweet, it's election day in wisconsin. no, it's a recall election. be a i'm standing by tom barrett. he'd make an outstanding governor. and he signed it, p.o. which means he signed the tweet as opposed to the candidate. walker points it out nonstop. >> is this a dry run for november? >> no. this is a real run for wisconsin, and i know there are people from outside the state, and i know that governor walker wants to make this a national election. that's his problem. >> i think the white house and some of the political allies of the president are scared that somehow if they get in the mix of this and their candidate doesn't win, that might be a sign that would impact the fall election. >> but in a way the fact national democrats have not gone all in makes a walker loss harder for republicans to explain away tonight. we'll learn the answer to some of these questions.

does walker pay the price? does labor still pack a punch and what's the best recipe for achieving reform? compromise or take no prisoners? well, a week after former president bill clinton went off message calling mitt romney's business message sterling, clinton found 0 another adjective to describe what a romney presidency would be like. he called the idea of a romney in the oval office calamitous for our country and the world. >> a lot of work out there so let me just be as simple as i can. i don't think it's important to re-elect the president. i think it's essential to re-elect -- >> the off message remarks on bane arguably they brought more attention to last night's obama show where the former president made nice with the president and democrats at a trio of fund-raisers by hammering the republican party. clinton argued republicans have adopted the economic policy of the eurozone. >> who would have thought after years and years and years, even decades, in which the republican

right attacked old europe that they would embrace the economic policies of the eurozone? austerity and unemployment now at all costs. i mean, after all, their unemployment rate is 11% and ours is 8%. we can get right up there if we just adopt their policies. >> and bill clinton in high form there. he defended the president's economic policy argue that go obama has done his best to work with an uncooperative congress. >> he's had to get all of this done while people as recently as last week were still saying he wasn't born in america. he's had to get all of this done with a house of representatives that had one of the tea party members claim that 78 to 81 members of the democratic kau can cuss were members of the communist party and the presidential nominee nor any of the leaders rebuked him for saying that. this not the 1950s.

>> as you can see, this was the bi bill clinton show. not even the clinton/obama show. and clinton went after mitt romney by name, reviving the attacks linking romney to the republican brand. >> the romney republican plan is austerity and more unemployment now and blow the lid off later. who said that he has a better idea was the governor of the state that was 47th in the country in job growth. his plan is to go back to the bush program, on steroids. >> taking one piece from last week and trumpet it. he can come back with a vengeance. at one point he called romney but his father's name, george, summed up the problem facing him after last week's very sluggish jobs numbers. >> the only reason that this is

going to be a close election is because people are still hurting. the situation in europe is slowing things down. that's basically the argument the other side is making. they're not offering anything new. they're just saying things are tough right now and it's obama's fault. >> today romney begins two days of fund-raising in texas where this afternoon in ft. worth he'll hold his first public campaign rally in the lone star state this cycle. finally to the ad wars. our latest installment of the top ten hottest tv markets in the contest and they tell us more about the battleground map than anything. the campaigns and their surrogates are spending time and money tells us the true tale. and this week the top ten hottest ad markets are in just four states, virginia, ohio, iowa and north carolina. remember, this was the list last week, norfolk, roanoke, greensboro, raleigh-durham the most saturated media markets. this week norfolk rae mains on

top, columbus ohio shoots up to 0 number two, cedar rapids, roanoke, virginia, and charlotte, north carolina. the biggest change no colorado markets are in the list this week. by the way this includes money from romney, from obama, from crossroads, priorities. you name the outside group, it's in there. this is our exclusive stuff. so this race is still being fought as you can see on gop tu turf. those are all states george w. bush carried in 2004. all right, wisconsin governor scott walker will find out his fate today. but he's not the only one. along with walker lieutenant governor rebecca kleefisch, also wanggaard, moulton and fitzgerald. if democrats can win any of those four seats they'll hold a majority for the first time since 2010. after a full year of this power

struggle wisconsin could wake up tomorrow with republican governor, democratic state senate and, ready for this, a democratic lieutenant governor as well. ed schultz is the host of "the ed show" doing his show live from wisconsin today. he joins me now. ed, i know you've been on the front lines of this battle. what does it say about labor unions and the power inside the democratic party if scott walker prevails today? >> well, if scott walker prevails today, i think it will set up a national narrative. we heard that from congressman paul ryan the other day. he's claiming that if the people push back what walker has tried to implement here in the state and what he's carried through so par, it's going to slow down other governors and other legislators across the country who are going to tray to do what they call reforms but, of course, what democrats are calling cuts in a real shot to the middle class. so i think that this is going to

play into the november narrative all along this summer, going into the fall. and i think the romney camp is going to point to this, see what scott walker has done in wisconsin. that's what we're going to do in america. and so this is being closely watched. >> ed, we're exit polling this so it's very likely we may find out tonight that a majority of those who show up for the polls may decide in an obama/romney matchup that they like the president, and, they want to keep scott walker. we know that voter exists. we've seen all the polling data. voting for walker today and says they're going to vote for obama in november. where is the disconnect here if that could be the margin of victory? >> well, it's a very interesting dynamic. there's no question about that. but i would make the case that president obama isn't on as thick ice as he might think he's on here in wisconsin. this is going to be a tough one for the president, no doubt, no the matter how this turns out

today. look, the independents have broken for tom barrett here in the last few days. it's been a good four, five days for tom barrett. he has done very well in the debates. he's been on the offensive. the john doe investigation and some of the things that have evolved out of that in the last week have not helped scott walker. to walker's credit he has been a tireless campaigner down the stretch. but what they're going to have to do is get their people out. they are going to have to be strong for scott walker. dane county will have to be strong. and it's going to be strong. the mayor here this morning is saying maybe a 70% turnout. also interesting, chuck, both sides have already gotten attorneys lined up for a recount. >> right. >> there are 7,000 ballots, absentee ballots, that have not been turned in yet here in madison and they have to be in by friday. so it could be razor tight. >> it would almost be the ultimate way -- the ironic way

for this all to end or maybe never end. 2.1 million people voted in 2010. 2.9 million in 2008. i think what it is in between will tell us a lot. but i want to ask this about messaging for labor. labor had won the pr battle after he's reforms were sort of slammed through the legislature during that whole fight. and i look at this poll number in marquette. in january should union rights be limited? it was 48% to 47%. now 55% now in wisconsin say they should be split. in many ways the whole message war that labor was winning as the campaign has pro-degreesed arguably they've lost ground on this issue. is that a problem? >> no, i don't think it's a problem but i do think you're seeing the effect of millions of dollars being spent by the pro-walk pro-walker peel. we're talking $30 million. we're talking the democrats and the progressive movement hasn't even kol up with a fraction of

that. so, clearly, the air wars have had an effect on the progressives in the state. but i think that there's been somewhat of a resurgence, a renewed confidence in the last couple of weeks and we're certainly seeing it on the ground. the enthusiasm and the get out the vote effort on the part of the democrats has really been amazing. party beil asked me yesterday, told me he's never seen anything like it. so this is going to go down to the wire. it's all about turnout. it's a lot of fun to watch it unfold. >> it certainly is. i think we're going to have a bunch of close elections there in wisconsin. you can watch "the ed show" at 8:00 p.m. particularly tonight he's on the ground in madison, wisconsin. you won't want to miss that. thank you, ed. well, developing now, you're looking at live pictures in london are where the pomp and pageantry of the queen's jubilee celebrations are heading towards their finale this morning. of course it's this afternoon over there. right now the queen has just finished the diamond jubilee luncheon at the palace of westminster. we're expecting the royal family

to make their way to buckingham palace and one of their famous carriage processions. they'll follow the same route that will and cate took on their wedding day. it's not just the wisconsin vote, folks. voters are going to the polls across the country. multiple member races, a bid to make it way more expensive to light up. the red-hot battle for an open governor's seat just to name a few. i have my man from the hotline here. you're watching "the daily rundow rundown." a look at the president's schedule after a very light night. it's a quiet day today. ♪

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okay. these are the live pictures. we know so many of you have been waiting for queen elizabeth and members of the royal family. an open carriage procession back to buckingham palace. it's, of course, the fourth day, the grand finale of a weekend of festivities celebrating the queen's diamond jubilee once the royal family is back at the palace they will appear to greet the crowds below. if london watching it all, you know, i would say, what is it, something like 70% of americans have only known one monarch of our former overlords, if you will. the legacy of queen elizabeth and the pomp and circumstance, how popular is she these days? >> reporter: cluck, this four-day celebration has been a fantastic demonstration of just how popular she is. particularly sunday.

you will have seen during that river pageant when 1,000 boats took to the river thames, by the end of heavens opened. people stuck out there, their spirits were not too dampened by that and i think the queen really felt moved by that great tribute to her. today as well as you can see from the pictures there are thousands lining the roof of the carriage procession. she is, of course, traveling without prince philip. now this is the great sadness that overshadows the day, that her husband, who stood by her side throughout the 60-year reign isn't actually with her for this great finale to her diamond jubilee celebration, chuck. >> reporter: he was in the hospital overnight. we understand he'll be kept in for a couple of days. buckingham palace spokesmen are stressing this is not serious, that it's a minor problem this bladder infection, but he's about to turn 91. at this age, at such a great age, any health scare has to be taken seriously indeed but hope

that he will be back at his wife's side before too long. >> is there any reason -- you know, i know this is a conversation with people that are fascinated by the whole royal family and the royal secession, is there any reason why she would give up her throne early and give it to her son now while she is alive? >> reporter: well, most people believe that is incredibly unlikely. when she took those vows, when she was crowned 59 years ago, she swore to continue in this role of duty throughout her life and, really, it is very difficult to imagine that this woman who takes her faith incredibly seriously, she is, of course, head of the established church here, would ever disregard those vows and abdica abdicate. there may be grounds as she advances in years perhaps if her health fails, there may be grounds. the question will rise again but, really, it is not being discussed at all and especially when you look at her 86-year-old

but walking without a stick, no hearing aid, no signs of age at all, and she has shown such fantastic energy throughout the last four days, resisting the bad weather on sunday, a late night last night, and that fabulous concert and here she is again today dining with 700 people. >> she has the queen mum, we know how feisty she was. anna bell roberts, thank you very much. well, beyond wisconsin there are lots of other races we'll get you to. we'll tell you what's going on around the rest of the country. we have a deep dive coming up explaining wisconsin by the numbers and how you can follow election night very carefully and know who won pch we actually call the race. all coming up next. we will be -- all right, first we have today's trivia question. throughout american history, how many governors have survived recall elections? tweet me the answer. the first correct answer will get a follow tuesday from us.

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just because we have that cool animation we have to in0 to keep our eyes on the queen and the royal family as they keep the party going in london. the queen is making her way to buckingham palace in an open carriage. as you can see very excited londoners lining the streets there, big celebration that's been going on for four days. we want to turn back to this side of the pond and american politics. beyond wisconsin already six other states holding primaries today. we're going to go through it all. my man reid wilson, editor of national journal's hotline and in true hotline fashion we're

going to do 0 it in the old right side/left side and go through this bullet point by bullet point, state by state. we're going to start in california and we're going to move west to east. so let's start california senate. the only thing that interests me here tate, the crazy con spear this woman. could she be against dianne feinstein? >> there are 23 running. nobody knows any of them. one hiked a mountain to raise awareness. orly taitz may end up being the senate nomination nominee. they're not going to win the seat anyway. it would be a momentary embarrassment. >> pr disaster. all sorts of interesting house races going on because of the new rule where there are no party primaries anymore. everybody votes. top two regardless of primary will meet. and so that means berman sherman, could have been the most expensive in history, becomes the most expensive

general election democratic campaign. any chance berman or sherman don't make it to the top two in november? >> i don't think so. both of them spent millions on the race. i think berman is north of $2 million and sherman is north of $3 million on this race so far. they're both very well known. the district sort of combines their two previous districtses. >> does it matter who is on top today? >> i think it does primarily because the person who winds up on top ends up with the momentum going into november and the person who is not on top is going to have to go back to their donors and say please keep funding me to the tune of millions of dollars in a race that i essentially just lost. >> it's the republican voters who will decide which democrat represents them. that's the irony here. >> there aren't many republicans in the hollywood hills. they could have an impact. >> all five of them. >> there you go. >> pete stark/eric swalwell.

is this likely to end up in a top two situation where they rematch again or could one of them not make it in the top two? >> no, again, i think this is a top two situation in which we're going to see two democrats head ing towards a showdown in november. >> and you like california 26, before i move on to a couple of other stories, why. >> california 26 is interesting because there's an independent candidate there who might sneak into the top two and freeze one of the democrats out, democrats are a lot more optimistic about this race now. they think their favorite candidate is likely to make it. >> so many democrats. that's the worry, right? so many democrats splitting the vote, an independent sneaks in there? >> exactly. >> one ballot initiative, the cigarette tax one. how likely is that to pass? >> not entirely clear on that. the latest surveys have it leading by a small margin. still, 47 million bucks have been spent already on this race. >> let's move west. we'll go to the rocky mountain time zone, if if you will.

the mountain time zone. montana is going to have the hottest senate race perhaps in the country, one of them, one of the hottest house races. primary wise no action there. all the action is on the gubernatorial race. >> there's a large field on the republican side. rick hill looks like the front-runner at the moment. democrat brian schweitzer is stepping down. they will rely on the attorney general. they will try to national iize e race and talk about health care and the fact steve bullock did not join the health care lawsuit. democrats are confident that schweitzer is so popular that bullock is going to be able to continue to sort of serve the third schweitzer terrell. >> let's move south to new mexico. senate democratic primary probably the most interesting race we're following because democrats have a preferred candidate but he could lose in the primary. tell us about it. >> he's not going to lose in the primary. this is martin heinrich running against balderas. both will pick anglo candidates in a state that is now plurality

hispanic. the republican hispanic candidate dropped out. we're likely to see a heather wilson showdown. >> heather wilson is running the best campaign in the country but, boy, she has to get a lot of obama voters in order to win that senate seat. let's move. i want to do new jersey, what's going to happen? >> there's a clinton/obama factor in the race in new jersey. pascrell probably has the larger base. rothman has been running an ad campaign focused on paid media. even the new york media market is hugely expensive. pascrell spent a lot of money on the ground. i think his base will win at the end of the day. >> obama unofficially with rothman. very quickly jeff barth, the man of the viral video, south dakota. what happens there, my friend?

>> look, i hate to say it, but a very popular incouple dent -- >> we know that. >> i think she is safe in november. >> after all this attention, this viral video has gotten, has started to raise a lot of money. >> we shall see. reid wilson, well done. march through the country. sorry i didn't get to iowa. that's okay. it's not that many good primaries there tonight. up next, more on the critical wisconsin recall race. we'll break down the numbers and how to watch the returns come in. it all comes down to which voters show up to the polls, what the electorate looks like. we'll take a deep dive 2008 versus 010 versus today. what happens when classroom teachers get the training... ...and support they need? schools flourish and students blossom. that's why programs like... ...the mickelson exxonmobil teachers academy...

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well, for those of you following the queen's procession to buckingham palace, she arrived just moments ago. here she is, the carriage ride is done. again, the finale of what's been a four-day celebration diamond jubilee. it is amazing how long she has

reigned over the monarchy of great britain. okay. the governor's race between scott walker and tom barrett in 2010 was decided by 125,000 votes out of 2.1 million cast. it's expected to be closer this time around. today's deep dive we're taking a look at how the demographics of the state shape up, how they changed from 2008 when president obama won by 14 points over john mccain. and this is sort of how you can watch tonight and watch the exit polls and know the results. so look at this, democrats had the advantage in 2008. 39% to 33%. a one-point advantage. maybe barrett has a shot. he needs something along those lines, the independent numbers haven't been that much. let's look at another one. ideological breakdown, look at this, 47% call themselves moderate in 2008. much more of a conservative to the electorate in 2010. this is walker wants it to be closer to 10%. again, my guess is look for the

number to be somewhere in between. now let's look at our next one here, young voters. look at this drop-off, that there's any place there was a huge turnout and drop-off, made up 22% of the electorate, folks under the age of 24. this maybe is as big of an issue as ever and this is where the president's team may or may not get blamed if if this number is more like 2010 than it is 2008. could he, himself, have made a difference in upping that number. let's look at the labor union vote, though. look at this, no change. same enthusiasm, made basically a one in four in 2008, one in four in 2010. is that number higher at some point tonight? i doubt it considering the consistency despite the ideology and all this other makeup there tells you a lot there and look at african-american voters. we're look iing at 5% in 2008, in 2010. again, not a big margin, so the big ones it to look at have to do with ideology and young

voters more than anything else that i think will tell us something. now what do we want to know, what counties to watch? look at these counties that both obama carried in 2008 and walker carried in 2010. brown county, i think it's a swing as they come. the green bay market as rte presidential race, a bush '04 market and obama '08. he got 54%. walker got 56%. obviously here barrett doesn't need to win it but he probably needs to be holding walker to 51%, 52% of the vote and this is working class blue collar vote, brown county. this is where if the message -- if the labor and barrett hasn't been able to push that message here, it's hard to imagine where he pulls this off. obama 53% under his statewide vote. walker, again, at 56%. again, it's about margins here. what does walker get? he's likely to still carry it but does barrett hold him to another number? and let's look at barrett strongis hold here. obama got 68% in milwaukee county. barrett got 62%.

he meads a big margin. he needs a bigger margin than simply 62%. you have 80,000 votes and 80,000 vote margin out of milwaukee county in 2010. he needs a larger margin out of here. turnout overall, about 2.9 million in 2008. what is the number in between? we're projecting a pretty high turnout here. you have the state saying somewhere between 65%, so we think 2.4 million, 2.5 million ballots cast. you would assume the higher it gets, the better for barrett. i would draw the line at 2.4 million voters. we start seeing him creep up above that. you would assume barrett's chances go up and it gets better and better. a fascinating race to watch and consider it's likely that we're going to have some sort of split decision as far as wisconsin is concerned, democratic control of the state senate, possibly walker holding on. maybe a lieutenant governor. going to be a fascinating race to watch. stay with us all night. again, we're exit polling.

we'll have obama/romney matchups, we'll learn a lot about november a little bit tonight. a few stories, u.s. officials say they are, quote, optimistic that a cia drone strike has killed al qaeda's second in command. the drone was targeting abu yahya al libi. he became the latest number two after the death of osama bin laden last year. a week after governments around the world expelled syria's top diplomats, the country is responding by expelling 17 western diplomats. the envoys of the u.s., uk and france are among the diplomats designated persona none gras at that. it comes as activists say they were killed in violence across the country today. and democrats are bringing the paycheck fairness act to the senate floor today but the proposed bill is not expected to pass the 60 vote threshold. the bill would require employers to prove that wage differences between men and women are job related and not based on gender.

sponsors of the bill point to research that show women make 77 cents for every dollar men earned in similar jobs. they say the bill places too much of a burden on businesses. this is a pretty super tuesday, right? six states, dozens of contests. of course wisconsin. our panel will be here next to break it all down. but first, are white house soup of the day, listen to this one. spring pea with duck bacon. i know bacon's terrific off of the pit but duck bacon? don't forget you can always follow the show on facebook. now you can apply sunblock to your kids' wet skin. neutrogena® wet skin kids. ordinary sunblock drips and whitens. neutrogena® wet skin cuts through water. forms a broad spectrum barrier

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bill clinton hit the fundrai-raising circuit. take a listen. >> it's hard for them since governor romney's finest act as governor was to sign a bill with the individual mapdate ndate in which he has now renounced. >> let's bring in our 0 panelist, eroll lewis, alicia menendez with the huffington post and host of huff post live. welcome all. alicia, i will start with you, bill clinton, did he make good after last week's off messaging when it came to bane and the sterling comment? >> bill clinton always makes good. yes, i think there's no one better to be delivering this message than bill clinton. i think americans still have some no, sir willing stalgia fon years. he's a good reminder for everything that came after him. anytime obama talks about bush it seems as though he's ceding responsibility. bill clinton is in a power

position to talk about the pact we've tried republican economic policies, we've seen the results. >> is this a risk/reward, are the republicans had such a field day, they enjoyed using bill clinton friday and over the weekend, and then, hey, be careful what you wish for because bill clinton will come back. he was sort of, is on as you can be as an obama surrogate, i think, last night. >> he was but, you know, bill clinton's fun to watch. this was clearly penance, you know, let's not joke about it. >> he even said it himself, let me make something clear. you don't say that unless you feel as if you needed to claer t clear the air. >> he had to do this. the fact is bill clinton, i think, in his mind, and he is a great messenger but he's also a huge ego, right? and i think in his mind he probably thought what he was doing last week was actually for the good of the campaign. it would redirect the obama campaign back on message. he would take it upon himself to do that without asking anyone first. >> there's a lot of truth to

that. what i found fascinating is that he seems to basically be saying stop running against mitt romney. go back to running against the republican party. the republican brand is what's in the tank right now. mitt romney's brand is in a lot 0 better shape than the republican party brand. so attack the republicans. it seems to be what the bill clinton message was. >> that's right. when it comes to finance and business, no question about it. the average person, if you tell them, look, he was in private equity or leverage buyouts, whatever you want to call it, and made a couple million dollars, people are going to say, he knows a little something about money. more than i do. >> the businessman halo. you get a halo effect. just being described as a businessman so shift the conversation. >> this narrow distinction about making profits as opposed to creating jobs. most people think of the two as going hand-in-hand. without the profits, you don't get the job or you don't keep the job. for bill clinton to sort of point that out, it sounds like there's an internal debate within the obama camp about whether you go after bane. >> there is now. >> and we know --

>> there seems to be a little bit of that. i want to shift gears to wisconsin. i think that, to me, it's part of the 16-year war, if you will, between the two parties where basically even when you lose whatever you're going to move on and find another way to keep fighting the battle. what are we going to learn tonight? >> i think we're going to learn a lot about the new coalition when you compare 2008 to the election. >> you do? >> i do. >> president obama needs to get involved in this? >> even though he didn't get involved in this, i think you have a structural challenge which is in addition to african-americans which we have heard a lot about, young voters who are scattering to the fore. this is the worst time of the year to have an election when you want students to show up at the polls, and i think their absence is will be sorely felt tonight. >> what's the governing lesson scott walker should take out of this and what will he take out of this if he wins? >> either way this is a really good opportunity for republicans. if he wins, obviously, republicans and scott walker get to say mandate.

we just had a mandate on fiscal responsibility and, indeed, austerity. let's move forward. >> what if the voters deliver a democratic lieutenant and say we're not recalling you because we just don't like barrett. if someone else had been on the ballot -- >> i think what he will say and what republicans are going to say is this was a mandate on the policies. you saw policies that were working. maybe you don't like me and my stance on labor but you like my economic policies. if he loses, if he is recalled, republicans get to say, well, democrats have really lost their way. now they're voting out economic policies that are working in the state for them the way they're supposed to. >> you're trying to spin there's a way to win? on the fund-raising circuit there might be. >> chuck, even for mitt romney to say look at how democrats have lost their way, voting out good economic policies. >> we made a big deal about president obama not stepping foot in wisconsin. do you know who else didn't step foot in wisconsin?

>> who? >> mitt romney. >> -- >> are a wait and see. >> financially he loses by winning. >> will he have to call in every conservative think tank and super pac every couple of years just to survive? will he spend $20 million every couple of years just to keep his job? you talked to ranch and they are not thrilled about this. >> the tv stations of wisconsin over the last three years. trivia time. how many governors have survived recall elections? the answer is zero. gray davis of california and somebody who has become a household name to trivia geeks. lynn frazier. we have the daily rundown on msnbc.

let's bring back the panel. okay. i want to shift gears a bit to texas. in an interesting back and forth that you don't see every day, ted cruz, the potential senate candidate runoff there, david duhurst. they are having a battle over when should they debate? how many times should they debate? apparently they are having a debate over which language. ted cruz is not on the side you think. let me show you a clip. >> i would welcome a debate with lieutenant governor dewhurst in any forum. i think it would be better in english. >>. [ speaking spanish ] >> aleisa?

apparently he learned in spanish in bolivia. how was it? >> it was pretty good. there was a time when he just gotten back and said -- [ speaking spanish ] -- which is i'm a little bit pregnant to the audience. loved it. what is the issue in which he would gain voters? >> it seems there are what are the under currents here. is david dewhurst saying he is hispanic and it could be a negative republican party? there are a lot of factions in which this is done. it actually should be -- all candidates should welcome. >> ted cruz's spanish is not good. he is a tea party candidate.

the fact he forced the runoff as a tea party is an attack on the mainstream. you have to are careful around immigration. either way, it is a loser. >> another reminder for cuban americans. >> shameless plugs. >> in keeping with all things wisconsin, i had an interview with paul ryan in this month's town hall. >> errol. >> tonight on new york 1, i'll talk to him. it will be up on ny1.com. >> and? >> the men in my office are having a twitter war. they are amassing the twitter fortunes. follow me on facebook.com. >> that's it for this edition of "the daily rundown." tomorrow is the big show. the results day. not just primary, but the wisconsin recall. coming up is chris jansing. stay with us.

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