no we're not. yeah, we are. no...we're not. ♪ ask an allstate agent about the value plan. are you in good hands? what are you doing up at this hour? john tower has answers. >> here's why frank is awake. he writes i want to see the person my wife wants to name our baby after. >> bill karins, lovely. i would definitely go with the name william. you can do a lot with it. bill, willie, will. i got one from mark halperin right here. don't know why he's up, but he tells me why. i'm a sucker for sports

highlights and landmark decisions all in one carrot top-style news cast. i don't know what that means but we do the news with a trunk full of props. carrot-top style. "morning joe" starts right now. this could potentially be a win-win for the president. >> whatever the court rules it's bad for the president. >> whatever happens it's a win/win for romney. >> really isn't necessarily a win for mitt romney. >> a win is a win and a loss is a loss. >> a loss could be a gain. >> it's unlikely the court is going to strike down the entire law. >> the court could decide to uphold or strike the entire law. >> either 6-3 decision to uphold the law. >> 7-2 but it could be 6-3, it could be 8-1. >> if he thinks it's going to be five votes will he join to make it six so it doesn't look like one of the 5-4 rulings i don't know. >> the whole thing has me crazy. maybe the chief jus till will

kill the other four and it will be 5-0, or -- maybe obama will reveals the existence of a double supreme court but it's just like the real supreme court with a side of guacamole or one will be a car crash and i can't rule on this justice he's my son because the justice is a woman. anything could happen! >> anything could happen this morning. good morning. it is thursday, june 28th. a momentous day in washington. the momentous day around america. with us here on set to talk about things we know absolutely nothing about, what happens inside the chamber at the supreme court of the united states, executive editor at random house and pulitzer prize winning historian, also "time" magazine contributing editor, the man who debunks all great american legends and faiths of your fathers, yes, jon meacham.

msnbc political analyst and visiting professor at nyu, former democratic congressman harold ford jr. >> good morning. >> washington we have former governor of vermont and former chairman of the democratic national committee, dr. howard dean. thank you so much for being with us, doctor. and, of course, here in new york city, the great willie geist. >> joe, listening to that clip from jon stewart, the truth is no one knows what's going to happen. reminds me of the week leading up to the super bowl. this huge event coming, nobody knows what's going to happen but you have people on tv for seven days talking about what's going to happen. they don't know what's going to happen. >> nobody has any idea. you have all the numbers, 6-2, 4, 5, 1, 3, 8. you know a number, willie, thinking about this morning. >> what's that? >> tainting a little heavy on my heart. >> work through the pain. >> 428. 428.

the combined wins that were taken off the yankees' starting rotation yesterday. andy pettitte and cc sabathia. >> petit out for two months. >> going to be a problem with andy pettitte, he's an old man. >> he's 40. >> he's an old guy. cc out for a couple weeks. >> yeah. stains his groin. their -- strained his groin. they're going to rest him through the all-star break. >> you have like a 17 game week. >> close enough i'm a politician. >> there should be a joe girardi school of management. had this psychological point. don't know if you saw this. telling the other three guys they don't have to be cc or andy, a good thing because they can't be. you do your job, we'll take care of it. >> ouch. >> took a shot off his foot, yesterday, petit did, broke his fibula. >> you like saying fibula. >> i do. >> remember they lost mariano

and people thought things would go down. i think they're okay. >> i think, though, there is, of course, sort of the domino effect and you're pulling people out of your pen in the fourth or fifth inning instead of the seventh or eighth. it all adds up over time. these kids, they just love playing baseball. >> i can tell you're hurt. >> i am hurt. >> who else is hurt, segway, mitt romney in these swing state polls. let's find one where he wins a swing state. this morning a new nbc news/maris poll shows a dead heat between president obama and mitt romney in three critical swing statesp they're tied 45/45 in a new new hampshire poll, with president obama holding a slight lead in michigan, four points, and north carolina two points. i got to say that's much better news this morning than we saw for mitt romney yesterday.

new hampshire, break even new hampshire, is good for any republican candidate. i think george w. bush won it back in 2004, but republicans don't usually -- in 2000, but republicans don't usually win it. north carolina, i got to say i'm surprised president obama is still ahead by two points, harold ford n north carolina. >> the power of the incumbency, the fact that the convention is there, the democrgraphic changen the charlotte area suburbs. as you listen to mitt romney, there's still a maturity factor missing. i listened to him yesterday talk about the health care which we all -- everybody is predicting they know what it is. he didn't sound mature enough. he said in his remarks, i bet the white house is not sleeping well tonight. he's a presidential candidate. we, obviously, know he disagrees with it, to lay out the court has a big moment tomorrow and we need to look how we move forward, i think there's something missing there. perhaps if it comes, it helps

him. if it doesn't it continues to aid the president. >> take a look at mitt romney yesterday talking about health care. >> my guess is they're not sleeping real well at the white house tonight. that's the way it ought to be. yeah. and be this is a decision, by the way, about whether or not obama care is constitutional, whether it passes constitutional muster. and so we're all waiting to see how the court will decide. one thing we already know, however, we already know it's bad policy and it's got to go. his policies were not focused on creating jobs. they were focused on implementing his liberal agenda. there's nothing wrong with people having an agenda, but when the country is in crisis you have a moral responsibility to focus on helping people come out of that crisis. it was not just bad policy, it was a moral failure to put forward a piece of legislation that wouldn't help americans get

back to work. >> a moral failure to pass a law that was based upon a law that i passed when i was governor of massachusetts. now i notice, there is a trend, though, you may not like mitt romney, i like him, i think he's a nice guy -- >> i don't dislike him. >> you may say he's the worst thing ever for the united states of america. if you want to talk that way, talk that way, but you're wearing the romney this morning. you know you're wearing the romney. >> oh, my god. >> look at that. >> this is a trend that all the kids are picking up across america, even pulitzer prize winning authors are wearing the romney. >> wow. >> i think harold is actually -- >> i think -- >> you should see harold's car garage elevator. >> two of them. >> oh, yeah. >> the car elevator. >> listen to him -- >> hey, you know, you already bashed the republican candidate. you got enough democratic votes for your next election.

>> i've said positive things about his candidacy. >> few. >> if you listen to him now, there's a seriousness deficit there. >> okay. >> if you want to talk about health care -- >> come on, man. >> joe, all i'm saying if you're running for -- >> so much silly stuff gets said on the campaign. don't get me started with the demagog. the ghost of hughey long rises on the shores of every ohio river where there's a factory being shut down by these democratic candidates. >> i've been critical -- >> don't tax me. tax the man behind the tree. >> i've been on your show critical of the approach of attacking private equity. i only make the point that romney, he needs to be more serious about this. the country knows that today's a momentous day. >> yeah. >> if the court strikes it down, where do you go from here? >> we need to have a more -- >> that's what the country wants to hear. >> we need to have a more serious campaign and it is all mitt romney's fault, says

harold ford jr. seems to me though, as mika brzezinski -- >> it's important because -- we're not belittling your point. we're belittling you. so anyway -- >> listen to you. >> i'm joking. >> as mika brzezinski, she's labeled this, 100 years from now people will be calling this the "seinfeld" election. there's not seriousness on either side. >> not in a deep and fundamental way, no. there's no -- you know, there's no fdr, no reagan, there's -- even in a weird way, it's -- it is a more of a process election because neither side has been willing to say we're going to throw our arms around simpson-bowles or do x or y. everything, joking aside, every election has to be framed as if, you know, it's world saved, world destroyed. armageddon or -- >> as you told me earlier this

week, this is going to have all the excitement of the jimmy carter versus gerald r.ford matchup in 1976. this is more like 1976 than say 1980 or 1932. >> both of these guys are reading from their scripts, they have their poll tested focus group messages and running with it. >> i think that it's -- yeah, these are two wings of an establishment party right now and until one or the other says we're really going to get serious about the debt and we're going to get serious about the tax code, then -- and we have a way of actually doing something, then it's not -- then you're talking about -- right now no one likes to admit this who's in politics because it makes what you do a little iffy but right now it's a difference in degree, not kind. >> yeah. this is not -- a lot of people going to be putting their hair on fire over the next five

months saying this election is going to be the most important wh blah-blah-blah. >> do you not think if europe continues to deteriorate, our country, we have to respond, i think it will force -- another level of seriousness and dimension of seriousness i would agree is lacking. i don't mean to criticize, i'm talking both sides. >> what else do you need to force? i mean the numbers are all there on medicare, medicaid, social security, our national defense spending is way out of whack. we're spending $2 billion a week in afghanistan rebuilding that country instead of rebuilding our own. at the same time we're talking about cutting education and r and d and infrastructure. we have a tax code that's out of whack. seriously, what do you need to happen in athens to get america on line. i don't think either of these guys are being serious and it's unfortunate. hey, willie, should we go to the doctor? the doctor is in. >> he's been waiting patiently. >> you go to the doctor. the doctor is in, because we

have a big issue today. a big health care issue. i want to know how bad andy petty's leg is? >> the broken fibula, typically, how long will he be out? >> he's going to be out a while. that's not a small break. >> six weeks sounds about right to you? >> i don't know. i'm not an orno pod. >> thanks for being with us this morning. >> that resume, it's always worth it. >> he's got a romney going this morning. >> he has the romney on today. >> no, no, no. this is a george bush tie. give me a break here. >> wow. okay. let's move to the secondary health care issue, affordable health care act. we know where you fall down politically, dr. dean. what do you think happens here, i'm not going to ask you to predict the supreme court, but say, for example, the individual mandate is pulled out and just that part of it is struck down. who claims victory in that scenario? >> romney claims victory but obama gets victory.

this is the most unpopular part of the bill. i don't think it should have been in there in the first place. the bill does fine without it. a lot of things in this bill people like. i believe that even though the obama folks have put up a fuss about the vidindividual mandate rom is going to say the president's initiative got ruined but the truth is people have a lot to like and got rid of the thing they hate, about 70% of americans. i think that's a huge win for the president although he's going to lose the inside the beltway squirmish in the first week or two. >> why did you say it wasn't necessary to begin with? >> it's never been necessary. we did this 20 years ago except a little tougher in favor of the consumer and a lot of cry then about the individual mandate and insurance market was going to be ruined. for 20 years we've had insurance market in vermont where everybody's guaranteed to be able to buy insurance as long as they're vermont citizens and where there's no individual mandate and you can't charge anybody more than 20% above your

cheapest price for a premium. so it works fine without the individual mandate. we practiced that for 20 years. you don't need it. this was a concoction of academia and insurance companies. it makes sense when you make the argument but human behavior is not what economists predict which happens fairly often. if it gets struck down it's going to be a plus for the president in the long run, probably in the short run a lot of wringing of hands. >> governor, let's talk about the practical impact, though, on health care reform on the consumers. what happens if the individual mandate is pulled out? does humpty-dumpty fall off the wall and start all over or you can raise fees and taxes somewhere else? >> you don't have to. it's minimal. the insurance companies will raise their premiums 1% or 2%. there are not many people that cheat. there are a few free riders but not many. that's the way human behavior is. if you were 55 years old and you didn't have insurance because you lost your job, and suddenly this bill comes along and you

can buy insurance you're not going to hold out to see if you need it or not. people don't do that. if you are 25 you would have done that because that's who does that. but they're covered already. this is a really minimal, minimal piece. this is much ado about nothing inside the beltway. the truth is, this really makes very little difference in the bill. all the good things in the bill will be left. >> let's bring in now nbc news capitol hill correspondent kelly o'donnell, standing by for us. kelly, good to talk to you again this morning. >> you guys need some feminine energy this morning. i'm happy to be with you. >> good to have you here. >> well -- >> i won't even say it. >> don't could do it. >> i'm just going to let it go. >> that's why we have harold. go ahead. >> coming from a man with pink pants on but go right ahead. >> i think they're salmon. >> are you so insecure about your own masculinity that you cannot wear tight pink pants harold ford jr. >> i have several pair. i chose not to wear them this morning on television. >> i have pictures of you from the hamptons. the dreaded east hampton clam

bake that was brought up yesterday. >> oh. >> holy cow. >> we're going to let these two guys work it out. kelly, you and i will talk while they work this out. >> i've derailed them. >> lay out what today looks like in washington as you sit there, obviously this is a historic day either way it goes. >> i'll be over at the court with our colleague pete williams, such an expert on these things. one thing i think people may be surprised about who have not followed a lot of supreme court big decision days, is this isn't like a jury verdict in a state crime where there is one answer and it comes very quickly. this could be more complicated than that because the justices have had to look at four questions, it is a very complicated set of issues they need to deal with. so it is possible that they won't all agree on the same issues. there might not be the sort of instant score card if you will. it may take a little time to play out. politically we'll be watching for reaction and one of the things we've seen on capitol hill is speaker boehner and a number of the people in his team

have been cautioning those who have been so vocal about what they like to call obama care to not spike the ball today if, in fact, some part of it is struck down. there's an expectations game that republicans are concerned about because there is so much of kind of a popular conversation that maybe the mandate would be the part that would be struck down. none of us know what the justices will do. so trying to tamp down those expectations. while democrats have certainly been saying they are ready to act no matter what happens. they will either be in support of what's already there and seeing it roll in over the next few years which is the way the law is structured or ready to fight another day. >> all right. kelly, stay with us if you will for more feminine energy we can't seem to get enough of on this set. coming up next, mike allen with politico. he's got the top stories of the morning. also republican senator john thune of south dakota, breaking chairs with a single hand. also david gregory, chuck todd and rick stengel with an

exclusive first look at the new cover of "time" magazine. do you have the cover this week? meacham? is it the cute puppies cause cancer? what do you got? there's no heaven. >> right. >> then you did the american dream is poppycock. what's this week? >> not true. >> what's this week? >> love colon overrated? >> okay. nora ephron we miss you more now than ever. first, here's bill karins, he has a check on the forecast. bill, what is it looking like this weekend? >> oh joe. hot so many areas of the country and, of course, with the heat comes the drought. with the drought comes fires. still suffering in colorado from the borse wildfire they've ever seen over 100 structures burned just outside of colorado springs and this fire continues. only 5% contained. there's really no rain in sight for the area. still going to be very warm and during the late afternoon, still going to continue to be windy. a bunch of absolutely gorgeous,

beautiful homes up in the hills that now do not exist anymore. let's talk about this heat wave. st. louis, take a look at the next five days for you in st. louis. pretty incredible stuff. maybe one of the hottest five-day forecast st. louis has ever had. a pair of 108s the next two days and then you cool off quote/unquote down to about 102 over the weekend. we have heat watches and warnings for about 20 different states. today we expect 100s to move to chicago, to columbus and watch the next three days. the heat stays in the middle of the country and if anything, it expands to the east coast. i expect a friday afternoon with near 100 degree heat from washington, d.c., down to atlanta and charlotte. and then by the time we get to saturday it continues. peaking about 102 in charlotte, even new york city, detroit and chicago, not in the 100s but still going to be in the 90s. one of the largest heat waves we've seen coast to coast in a long time and it's not going to end any time soon. all indications this heat will continue right through the

fourth of july holiday week. you're watching "morning joe," brewed by starbucks.

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this past weekend all the big gop donors were at deer valley resort in utah at the first national romney victory leadership retreat. you've got to respect that sort of confidence. the man has not even officially been nominated yet, and he's celebrating victory. i can't wait for this weekend's mitt romney's second inauguration how down and presidential library fund-raiser. >> all right. let's take a look at the morning papers and we'll start with "the new york times." google introduced its wireless

home media player yesterday that links the tv to the internet similar to other products already offered by apple and microsoft. but there's one noticeable difference etched into the nexus cube. google's product designed and manufactured in the united states. something rarely seen these days when it comes to consumer electronics. it also hooks things to your brain. >> oh, my gosh. >> you don't want that. >> you don't want that. >> "chicago tribune," lawmakers in the house set to vote today on whether to hold attorney general eric holder in contempt of congress. at issue his decision to withhold documents related to fast and furious the botched gun operation along the mexico border. he would be the first u.s. sitting attorney general to be held in contempt by the full house. >> that's what you call stepping on a headline. the supreme court, most likely

overturns part of -- >> how did john mitchell escape that? how is eric holder -- >> seriously. >> i mean seriously, guys. drink some water and take a couple laps around the track and calm down. pensacola news journal, european base play maker air bus is planning to build its first assembly line in the united states in mobile, alabama. air bus is reportedly ready to invest hundreds of millions of dollars to assemble jets on boeing's home turf. officials in northwest florida expect it to be a game changer for the local economy. we're seeing it, we saw it first in carole campbell, south carolina, with bmw. >> tennessee did it. >> we've seen it in tennessee with -- we saw mercedes coming to alabama and now mobile, alabama, and northwest florida, my hometown, big impact there. airbus coming. great news. >> we had last week on the show the ceo of mercedes north america doubling the size of the plant in tuscaloosa.

business is moving south. >> and the thing is, this is great news for america, mercedes, of course, when they announce these things, that they're moving plants to america, they have the protests over there. but mercedes has said that's -- it's most efficient and most profitable plant in the world. doubling the size. >> by the way, barnicle spent the aftermath of that interview trying to get a cut lease on a mercedes. it was awful. terrible. >> the american south, birth place now of manufacturing and education of willie geist. >> exactly. >> they downplay that second. "wall street journal" in northern ireland a symbol of reconciliation and peacemaking that few people thought they would ever see. queen elizabeth shook hands with martin mcginness, former commander of the irish republican army now a government official. for decades the ira led a bloody fight against british rule dividing catholics and protestants separatist and loyalist. 3,000 people died including the

queen's cousin who was killed in a boat bombing in 1979. >> jon meacham, you see that handshake and think about lord mountbatten blown up. >> exactly. >> on his boat we'll say and -- >> it's a stunning, stunning act of reconciliation by the queen. >> i know. that's remarkable because that's -- he know, mountbatten was close to prince philip, the father figure. once argued i think to rebrand the house of windsor, the house of mountbatten and that's a personal, you know, when you think about politics as a clinical matter, mine that's as personal as it gets. >> that is. you know, willie, talking about education of the south, go to the university of alabama and call him lord mountbatten as the rest of america, go to the university of the south at suwannee you call him lord mountbatten. >> you said it. >> did you learn that in your

swiss boarding school before? mountbatt mountbatten. >> we would do that and then go play sport. >> sport ball. sport ball. like mitt romney. >> with us now chief correspondent for politico, mike allen, a look at the playbook. mike, good morning. >> good morning to the house of geist. >> oh! >> nice. i like that. pronounced correctly and everything. >> let's talk about the politics of the supreme court decision that we're going to get in about hour fours. democrats, you report, capitalizing off the ruling no matter what it is. how are they doing it? >> fund-raisers that went out yesterday from the house democratic committee and the senate democratic committee. they're both already trying to raise money off the decision. congressman patrick kennedy, son of ted kennedy, the former congressman, talking about a health care emergency rapid response fund, saying that if the law is upheld, the tea partiers will go crazy. if it's struck down, they're

going to work to rebuild it. after today, neither side is really sure how these politics are going to play. what is certain is, that this is a great political exercise and we will see which of these campaigns is quicker on their feet. we can expect to say president obama say regardless of the ruling, that he's not going to walk away from this problem. we can expect to see mitt romney, who go before the cameras around noonish, a little after here in d.c., he's going to say if it's upheld he's going to work to repeal it and if it's struck down, he's going to talk about the opportunity now to rebuild it in what he considers a more conservative-friendly way. >> that patrick kennedy e-mail solicitation, if the court strikes down the law democrats need to redouble our efforts. if the court upholds the law, dangerous tea party extremists will go on a rampage. that's a quote from patrick kennedy's e-mail trying to get money off this.

yesterday senator claire mccaskill saying she would be joining the year of other election year moderates won't attend the democratic convention in charlotte but her word the whole controversy is stupid. now more than $25 billion in debt. what's going on here? >> the democratic convention in particular is turning out to be a pain in the neck for the party. this used to be the party's best message delivery devise to kick off for the campaign. something they were excited about. now you have more and more democrats who are going to stay away, senator john tester of montana, also in a tough race, staying away. congressman steve israel of new york, the head of the house democratic campaign committee, telling his members in tough races they should stay away, they should focus on their district. around washington, we're hearing fewer and fewer people, republican and democrat, who are psyched up to go to the conventions. president obama is never going to top the excitement of denver 2008. his team knows that.

and the romney campaign is hoping that there's nothing unexpected. they don't -- there's not going to be a rick santorum speech because he doesn't want to have a distraction on his message. they're trying to tamp down whatever ron paul issues there might be. so, that's why the romney campaign is still thinking about waiting until right before the convention to announce their vp pick. they need that pop. the convention itself won't naturally give them that. >> howard dean, do you think there's a story about the democratic convention. clai mccaskill said she needs to be campaigning and doesn't need to be at cocktail parties in charlotte. >> this happens every four years. and it happens in both parties. although there are not many moderates left in the republican party that have to worry about this. i don't make much out of it. i think mike is accurate, people don't pay that much attention to these conventions. they are valuable because they

get to -- you do get to kick your speech off or your campaign off officially when people start to pay attention around the turn in september. but they're mostly big gatherings every four years for the party insiders. >> governor dean, do you think they should be shorter or what would you change about the traditional format for decades? we've had the four days republicans are sticking to that. democrats altering it a little bit, doing a festival monday and then three formal days of convention. what would you change about the format? >> first of all, three is more than enough. we had a great thing in denver because the people of denver were so fantastic and it's a great setting. but i think three days at the end of the summer when people are trying to get their kids back to school is plenty and you'll see that institutionalized by both parties because it's so expensive. you cannot do this without corporate contributions. the democrats are trying to do it. that's why they're short. it just can't be done that way. but i do think it's important, i don't think you can give up on the conventions. they matter to the party. the party faithful.

it is -- and the american people do pay some attention to the big speeches. >> i just think the governor is right. if three days was good enough for jesus, i mean surely it's good enough for -- >> that's the standard. >> that's the standard. >> jesus, though -- >> i mean it's good enough for -- >> go ahead. >> it's not good enough for the host cities. that's why the parties are a little in a jam. the cities that bid on it want the four days of hotels and restaurants and that's the pressure to keep it longer. the other pressure, though, is the networks which are covering it less and less, already stretched by having this now back-to-back conventions go right from tampa to charlotte and charlotte there's going to be two big venues, the hall where they're going to have the convention for two days and bank of america stadium where the home of the panthers where the president is going to give his speech, so the networks want it shorter too. >> haley barbour said if they went down to three days, nobody would know the difference except some bar tenders and

restaurateurs in the city. >> and meacham, you did say that it was good enough for jerusalem. >> yeah. >> i've got to say, though, and i know you're the theologian, doubts the very existence of god, but you really do have to start on palm sunday. this was a seven-day. this was a seven-day spread. >> it was. >> wasn't just three days. >> think about family vacations, your in-laws come, three days, they can stay. it's good enough for our lord. >> i'll use that. >> mike allen, thanks for looking inside the playbook. >> what do you say to that? >> happy health care day. >> coming up, a little sports for you. the san francisco giants tim lincecum throws his body in front of the plate. helps the giants sweep the dodgers. highlights around the league, next. a new poll commissioned by national geographic, the widely respected, the reverred national geographic asked the question that could decide the presidency, which candidate is

best equipped to handle an alien invasion. the results later. [ male announcer ] you sprayed them.

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welcome back to "morning joe." time for sports. we mentioned it a little at the

top of the show. the yankees hosting the indians. andy pettitte on the mound. casey koch drills one off petty's ankle. petit back after a year of retirement. 40 years old. one more pitch but limps off the field. fractured fibula out at least six weeks, joined by cc sabathia on the disabled list. sabathia out two weeks with the strained grinoin. robinson canoe, opposite field home run, indians load the bases in the ninth, down a run, raphael soriano gets the pop out to left field, yankees win 5-4, lead the al east on a five-game winning streak. giants need a win over the dodgers to claim a share of the nl west. dodgers yet to score a single run. tim lincecum, pitch skipped by the catcher, 240 pound chad billingsley. lincecum, 160 pounds, blocks the

plate. >> holds on. >> holds on to the ball, gets the out. same inning, cabrera lifts one into left field. bobbie abreu with the sliding try, says he caught it, doesn't lie as well as duane did of the yankees the other i need. win 3-0 a shutout. tied the dodgers for the nl west lead. first time in dodgers franchise history shut out three games or more. california rivals tied for the division. >> willie, if this show weren't so focused on things that happened in the upper west side and the upper east side. >> yeah. >> and boston and d.c., of course, that's a great series that we'd cover. great series. >> we just did. >> more than once a year. >> we just did. that was our coverage. >> that's it for the year. >> 19 seconds. >> dodger and giant fans we hope you enjoyed that. >> i have another west coast team. the angels playing the orioles. >> okay. >> j.j. hardy gets into one, sends it deep right center, mike trout the rookie, having an

incredible season there to make the leaping grab. making a habit of this. >> look at that. >> great defensive outfielder, 20 years old playing his first full season in the majors. four hits as well in the game. angels win in a route 13--1. they've won eight of the last ten. bryce harper is great, but this kid mike trout may be better than that. >> really? >> couple notes. germany/itty today in the euro. >> that's going to be exciting. >> winner gets spain in the final sunday. >> most people are rooting for a spain/germany final. that would be a match even americans would be excited. >> tonight the nba draft where anthony davis of kentucky will go number one to the new orleans hornets. >> who goes number two? >> depends who you ask. >> they're saying the kid from florida. the kid from syracuse. >> or kid gilchrist from kentucky. >> all those guys will go in the first round. calipari has to be excited. >> also the kid -- >> and maybe three vandy guys drafted tonight. up next must-read opinion pages.

back in a moment. the postal service is critical to our economy,

delivering mail, medicine and packages. yet the house is considering a bill to close thousands of offices, slash service and layoff over 100,000 workers. the postal service is recording financial losses, but not for reasons you might think. the problem ? a burden no other agency or company bears. a 2006 law that drains $5 billion a year from post office revenue while the postal service is forced to overpay billions more into federal accounts. house bill 2309 is not the answer. with two times the points on dining in restaurants, you may find yourself asking

why not, a lot. chase sapphire preferred.

welcome back to "morning joe." taking a look right now, live shot of the united states supreme court. this morning, of course, the justices will be handing down a decision on whether the president's landmark legislation on health care reform is overturned. that's, obviously, what a lot of people are writing about today in the nation's newspapers. let's start with "the wall street journal". the president at the time forget by daniel hindinger whether obama care was affirmed or overturned by the ladies and men in the robes, nothing was going to change one unimpeachable fact. from day one the obama health care legislation was swimming

against the tides of history. it was a legislative monolith out of sync with an ipad world, in an era of the smartphone, obama was rotary dial health reform. the signs this was so were everywhere. barack obama and the pelosi/reid of the democratic party blew past them. the obama health care law was unpopular with the american public over time. a health care dinosaur like obama care was likely to implode under its own weight. howard dean, respond to that. i know there are a lot of things you personally don't like about this legislation and you don't think the democrats handled it correctly. but i take it that you don't agree with everything that daniel wrote here? >> i generally don't bother to respond to the editorial pages of the "wall street journal" with good reason. >> you dismiss every editorial that's in the -- really? >> i do. >> i never read them. >> how do you do that? does that mean i should not read the editorial page of the "new york times"?

>> i usually don't read that either except for kristof and krugman. >> what do you read in the morning? cartoons? >> i read the news but that's not news and it's opinion that is silly. that was a silly thing to write. >> okay. >> so glad we came to you for the must-read opinion pages. >> let's be truthful -- >> note to self. >> let's be truthful about the obama care piece. i'll try to be reasonably nonjudgmental ability this. this is a very centrist piece of legislation. this was modeled after what mitt romney did in massachusetts, which has been very unsuccessful in controlling costs but incredible successful in insuring people. it is a private sector reform. insurance companies did very well under this piece of legislation. and it is a more conservative european approach. there are two countries in europe that do this kind of health care reform. one is in the netherlands and the other switzerland where private sector insurance companies do most of the

insuring. that's what this legislation is. so you could say whatever you want about it. i -- this guy is wrong. this is actually a relatively free market reform. that's a fact. probably one of the reasons i don't like it but that is the fact of this irn insurance. it's a very middle of the road approach to health reform, relying on the private sector. >> all right. kelly o'donnell on capitol hill, let's go to you and read you now a must read opinion page that you did not read yourself because you think the entire newspaper is silly. from "the washington post" justice scalia's partisan discredit to the court. for american americans the supreme court's decision on president obama's health care reform poses a keen test of legitimacy in an atmosphere of intense partisanship made more acute by a pending national election, can these five republican-appointed justices and four democratic appointed ones pass judgment in a way that impresses most americans as an act of law rather than politics? we have maintained that they can, or at least that the

justices should enjoy a presumption of good faith. the recent behavior of one member of the court, jaws t justice scalia makes that presumption harder to detain. his lapses of judicial temperament detract from the diggyty of his office, they endanger not only his juris prudential legacy but legitimacy of the court. whatever way this decision goes this morning, we are going to be hearing charges flying from both sides, much like on the editorial page of the post this morning. >> raises a question in many people's minds is the court even contemplating how it is viewed politically when it's making these decisions. it will be interesting to see somewhere down the line if chief justice john roberts ever reflects on that. if we could jump forward and then have the ability to kind of see the picture from 30,000 feet. a lot of people are concerned that if it is a 5-4 kind of day,

that it would be viewed as justices appointed by conservative presidents may have swung this one way or the other. we also have some appointees of president obama on the court. i did have the chance to sit in part of the argument during march when part of this case was being put before the court and it was interesting to see the questioning and the personalities of justices including scalia came out to a certain degree in the way they were putting questions to both those representing the states that were suing and the u.s. government. so, people will look at this probably from their own personal political view as a starting point. if they like what the court has done, they will see it as being above politics. if they don't they'll read some motives into it. >> you know, jon meacham, it is impossible to predict what is going to happen today. that's why jon stewart's clip is so funny. it could be 6-3 to uphold everything roberts riding for the majority, you don't know.

but i do remember the moment that this case went up to the court, i knew and you said on tv, all right, well, it's going to be 4-4 and depends on which way anthony kennedy decides the case. and i think most americans are that cynical now about the court. >> it has its lowest approval rating i think in recorded history in gallup and i think ever since -- it goes all the way back we've talked about that. but you can't underplay by any means bush v. gore in a 5-4 decision where they said don't ever follow this again. >> right. >> you know, once you end up with a conservative majority interfering in states rights, you've got people who are reading this as a political body. but, as we all know, it's always been a political body. >> by the way, it works -- i'm just going to say it works both ways. i knew the four democratic appointed justices, the second

this went up to the court, were going to affirm it. you just know there are now on the court there are for the most part eight of nine votes that are going to usually be predictably political. >> that old political cartoon, mr. dooley said the supreme court always follows the election returns. >> yeah. >> all right. coming up next, we've got willie's news you can't use. we will be back in a minute. so anyway, i've been to a lot of places. you know, i've helped a lot of people save a lot of money. but today...( sfx: loud noise of large metal object hitting the ground) things have been a little strange. (sfx: sound of piano smashing) roadrunner: meep meep. meep meep? (sfx: loud thud sound) what a strange place. geico®. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance.

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oh, yes. is it time? >> it is. prerecorded mika. thank you. it is. time for news you can't use. new national geographic -- >> oh, what is this on global warming? >> the esteemed. >> climate change. >> a new poll shows 80 million americans believe in ufos. 80 million out of 312. this is the important question, 65% of americans believe president obama would do a better job of fending off alien invasion than mitt romney. >> really? >> i don't know that i agree with that. >> romney seems -- romney -- you got to get in the mind of the alien, right? and look at those two pictures. which guy looks more like a cyborg? romney. seriously. >> i think there's a difference between the aliens and robots both of which will take over at some point. >> okay. >> but there's a clear distinct

there. as it happens, president obama, during the 2008 campaign, was asked. >> yes. >> i think this was a serious question. >> this was. >> to discuss aliens. >> if you are elected and you learned that the government knew aliens had visited earth and the public didn't know, what you be sure the public found out? >> it depends on what these aliens were like and whether they were democrats or republicans. >> channel 2 on your side there. >> you know, i got to say, can i give you my opinion on who i would want? >> yes. >> see armageddon right. >> classic, cinematic classic. >> one of the greatest summer -- ♪ i don't want to close my eyes ♪ >> there's a beautiful -- but you know, if i'm in that situation and there's an alien coming or a big rock coming to hit earth, i want president kaine. her man kaine. don't you? >> couple months ago on "the

daily show." >> citizens of earth, the spirit of humanity that built this planet, it is that same spirit of humanity that would allow us to destroy the aliens. [ applause ] >> that's the man you want in the big chair when the aliens come. coming up john thune and chuck todd. and sounds vying for your attention. so we invented a warning you can feel. introducing the all-new cadillac xts. available with a patented safety alert seat. when there's danger you might not see, you're warned by a pulse in the seat. it's technology you won't find in a mercedes e-class. the all-new cadillac xts has arrived, and it's bringing the future forward. we charge everything else...

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the romney campaign has responded, i think yesterday, by saying we just don't get it. saying we don't understand the difference -- i want you to listen closely because maybe you can understand the difference -- here's what they said. they said we don't understand the difference between offshoring and outsourcing. okay. okay. if you're looking for work, that's a pretty cruel joke. i can picture one guy in my old neighborhood standing next to another guy in the unemployment line and saying, hey, john, did you get offshored or outsourced? which happened to you? you think it matters? to the american worker? >> pretty funny guy there, right? biden somewhere in iowa. >> welcome back to "morning

joe." jon meacham is with us, harold ford jr. here with howard dean, dr. howard dean to you this morning. also with us from washington, d.c., nbc news chief white house correspondent political director and host of "the daily run down" looking mad this morning, chuck todd. >> mad? >> if i'm chuck todd i got a reason to be mad, right? the dodgers blanked -- dodgers can't score a run. >> not just a sweep, not just to the giants. it's not scoring a single run in the series? >> yeah. >> this is ugly. matt kemp, please hurry up. >> come on, man. >> come back. come back. >> look at that. >> you're killing me. >> by the way, your meat heads are getting tagged out by hippies by san francisco hippies. >> you know, san francisco -- don't get me started. >> that rivalry -- >> i was in the giants -- i really appreciate it, the one time you don't have your east coast bias is this week. really appreciate it. thanks. >> you know, we were actually

saying, chuck, if this was an east coast rivalry -- >> it would be important. >> it would be all we would be talking about. it is one of the great rivalries in baseball. let's start out by looking at the battleground polls you have put out, nbc news and maris polls showing pretty close races between barack obama and mitt romney. three tough states, the two were tied at 45 apiece in new hampshire. let's start there. new hampshire, help me out, i know bush won that in 2000, but do you have to go back to '88 for another time republicans won new hampshire? >> it is. what's interesting here, you know, each campaign is disputing one of our polls. why wouldn't they. that's what they do. this is one where the obama folks think they're doing better than this. inside the numbers and see evidence that the president looks to be in better shape than mitt romney. not all 45/45s are equal. romney is upside down.

the president's job rating is actually a huge improvement since the last time we tested it. but new hampshire is such a fickle state with the independents. the fiscal message can play well there for republicans, but the social, as soon as the social issues popped a couple months ago that's when you saw the president's numbers pop back up again. new hampshire is a weird state. romney was just there last week. >> a lot of feel forget the history of states like new hampshire, maine. these are states that went solidly republican and not just in the '50s and '60s democrats didn't win either of those states until '92. but by '68 to '88, republicans won them all the time. let's go to michigan. i've got to say, this number is a lot closer than i expected. mitt romney only four points behind in michigan. what's happened there? >>. >> this is one you've had some republican ad spending in

michigan. democrats haven't done any. i believe we're the third straight public poll to show the president up by five or fewer points in michigan. we know the romney campaign, the romney family, desperately wants to make michigan a serious state. you know, the obama people will sit there and say, you know what, it may get closer because we're not spending any money there and they're certainly keeping a watchful eye on it but they believe all they have to do is do two weeks of what he said about the bailout, remember what mitt romney said about the bailout and any problem they ever had there two weeks of advertising fixes it. it is one of those risks, how long do you let it go before you go in there and quote/unquote fix it if you're the obama campaign. >> and now let's go to north carolina. another surprise for me. i thought mitt romney might be a couple points ahead here. this is -- >> i was surprised to. >> one of those states if this is a close race like most of us believe it is, boy, i would -- i would bet the house on mitt

romney in north carolina. if it's a close race. >> yeah. >> i agree. i would always -- one thing about the president uniquely and his coalition of african-american younger voters, he has a high floor in north carolina. the question has always been -- nobody has disputed -- talk to republicans that he's going to have an ability, almost a lock in north carolina and always polls high and tracking his job rating in north carolina over the last three years, it's one of those states he never -- it never goes very high. never gets above 50 but never drops below 45. his base is solid there. is there a path to 50. this is all about the -- what we were talking about yesterday, joe, this idea can they boost latino turnout. remember in north carolina, largest latino growth of any state in the union over the ten-year period from the 2000 census to the 2010 census. can they somehow inspire that,

get young voters. it is a very -- you know sort of a -- it's a -- they got to draw the inside straight to get to their 50. >> going to be hard to thread that needle. >> this will always be a two-point race in north carolina. >> yeah. that will be fascinating. chuck, stay with us. we want to get your take as political director on health care reform decision. but right now on capitol hill, we've got a good friend of ours, republican senator john thune from south dakota. willie geist, a man that mika brzezinski and i saw break in half like -- a chair. he was just sitting there and just the power, i mean it's -- i'm expecting 100 years from now, instead of kids seeing the legend of davey crockett they'll be singing about london jack from the dakotas that could break a chair. >> that story. >> with a single claw. >> especially great with no context whatsoever. >> ripping the arm off his chair. >> it's what makes our show our show.

we do shortcuts. >> you can provide context, senator, or not. perhaps we'll move past that. >> we may want to move on. >> let's blow past it this time. let me ask you, senator, about three hours away from a big moment perhaps a historic moment for the drin here. as the supreme court rules on the affordable health care act. do you think it would be a good thing for the country, senator, if the supreme court repeals, strikes down this entire law? >> i do. i think what that would do is create an opportunity for us to really do this the right way. when this was rushed through a few years ago, it was done, you know, with -- on a party line vote, 2700 page bill. i think the american people made it clear they don't like this law and there is a much better way. we believe that if you approach this and take common sense reforms, go on a step bistep process in which you listen to the american people you can come up with a better product and one that will lower costs and deal

with many of the issues the americans want to see dealt with on health care, namely affordabili affordability. i think that's where the obama care proposal actually now we're finding out is not living up to expectations. it is raising costs, it is hurting jobs out there, because small businesses are dealing with these mandates and the uncertainty that's associated with the bill, and as a consequence, we're not seeing people getting back to work. >> harold ford jr. >> senator, good morning. >> good morning. >> did you play basketball together in the house gym? >> we were the champs. >> were you really? you and john? >> he did all the scoring. >> he was very -- he moves quickly for a big man. didn't he? >> he does. >> the only thing about that, i wasn't good enough to make the scarborough tour de force team and so harold was nice enough to pick me up. >> so willie, what do you think i was doing while these guys were running up and down the court? >> i'd say a sack of crystal

burgers. >> i had a sack of crystal burgers. >> and a pack of menthols. >> that's exactly it. i would watch them. thune and harold, man, they're good. they're very good. >> it was in the days before they banned smoking in the house. so yeah, i'm guessing that -- >> yeah. >> john, let me ask you a question, once we get past the health care conversation today and the coverage that will come, as you well know, members of the business community and for that matter i think the country are deeply concerned about what happens if congress doesn't act on the tax cuts and entitlements and sequestration. two things, is there truth to these stories that there's some in the senate, maybe including you, trying to draft a map, draft a plan, a path to some sort of outcome that will avoid some of these things before the election and if not, do you have -- is there a map being drafted for what happens after the election? >> well, there are people on both sides, harold, who would love to see this addressed before the election for a lot of

reasons, and not the least of which is, i think that it's hurting the economy now. we've all seen these projections the congressional budget office has said if the fiscal cliff isn't addressed before the end of the year in the first half of next year it could cost us 1.3% of economic growth which is about 1.3 million jobs. there's also the cbo is also saying that this year, because of the uncertainty associated with not knowing what's going to happen on tax rates and the sequester and all these other things it could cost us a half percent of economic growth now. so there are -- there is interest on both sides to do that. i think a lot of it will depend probably on -- i mean the house of representatives, obviously, the next month will act on the tax rates on whether or not there is enough, you know, bipartisan support in the senate to do something. probably where the president comes down on this. i don't think the democrats in the senate will do anything unless the president's on board with that. but it would make a lot of sense to take that off the table so we're not dealing with the big pileup after the election in the middle of a lame-duck session. >> jon meacham? >> governor dean, this is a

complicated bill, the expansion of medicaid is usually important, the tax subsidies are hugely important. if you were an incoming governor right now, how would you be feeling about the medicaid provisions? i would want those medicaid provisions kept intact by the court and i think they will be. we built our universal health care program for kids on a clinton expansion of medicaid. medicaid probably the most important part of this bill, more important than all the other things, all the controversial things. some of the states don't like it, but that's because they've been paying very, very little. in texas, for example, has 25% of its adults uninsured, 22% of children uninsured. the medicaid piece will do more than anything else to fix that. i really want to see that continue. as i said, we provided universal -- for 20 years we provided universal health care for all our kids under 18 and did it through medicaid. >> let's bring back in nbc news political director and suffering dodgers fan chuck todd. what's the impact on the

presidential race? you know, some people talking about this. you look at mitt romney attacking obama care as he calls it, which is, of course, a follow-up to romney care, and i just find it hard to believe that that's going to draw any blood from the campaign moving forward if it is overturned? >> well, you know, look, i think it's -- the white house, they certainly believe that anything that is an overturn of anything is bad for them politically. all right. there's -- you know how everybody has their scenarios this could help them this way or vice versa, you talk to republicans, the bottom line is, a full -- they need a full uphold. anything less, they're explaining, right. any time you're explaining in politics, you're losing as far as the argument is concerned. >> yeah. >> so, you know, i know that there's a lot of, well, you know, if you hit the back poor,

top of the scoreboard, nothing -- maybe it does this way. i have talked to some republican strategists who secretly hope it's fully upheld only for this one reason. not about base enthusiasm. that's already there. they don't want to have a policy debate on health care in the fall, sort of the -- that if you do an overturn of some sort, then they got to go out there with their own plan and talking to these strategists they just say look, history shows republicans usually don't win arguments on health care if health care is part of the campaign debate. >> john? >> i think, obviously, chuck's exactly right. we wonder why people have little faith in institutions or elected officials and give congress margin of error -- >> 9% approval rating. >> other than john thune who -- i think most of the kids all across america love. the fruited plains are crazy for thune. >> one thing we can agree on. senator, before we let you go here, we know you don't like

what you call obama care, the affordable care act. we know you like to see it stricken down today. what in specific terms would the plan be from you and the republican party to replace it? >> well, i think first off, just approaching this in an entirely different way. not ruling out a huge 2700 page bill and rushing something through. listening to the american people approaching this as i said in a step by step way. i think health care is a real issue for most americans. they want to see it addressed, but it doesn't take a $2.5 trillion expansion of the federal government in order to do that. we believe that there are things -- we've proposed many things in the past we think make a lot of sense. interstate sales insurance allowing people to buy across state lines, join small business health plans, expansion of health savings accounts, medical malpractice reform, allowing states to work with the federal government on high risk pools to strengthen also and cover people with preexisting conditions. whole range of things that we think make a lot of sense, but this bill is so big, so massive,

and so -- ununderstandable to the american people, i think that's the thing that has frustrated most americans. it's very unpopular out there. i hope the court does overturn it. either way, either way, you know this is going to be a major issue of debate in the fall campaigns and i think it rightly should be. >> senator john thune, thanks. it's always great to see you. howard dean, you know, i'm critical of many of my republican party who set their hair on fire, scare like young children and puppy dogs. john thune, though, it would be harder for you to attack john thune if he were vice president select. i mean he's very midwest, very south dakota, a great guy, right? >> all we want is people who will talk reasonably and compromise some place where we can get something done. >> and not read the op-ed pages. >> "the wall street journal" is an extremist publication. we don't need to read that. >> to you! oh, my lord, howard dean, thank you so much for being with us. chuck todd, great seeing you.

>> all right, brother. >> see you on "the daily run down." what do you have at 9:00? >> let's see, is there a decision today at 10:00? a couple other senators, blumenthal, blunt, talk more polls. your power hour politics after three hours of power hours of you, brother. >> he has absolutely no idea -- >> in fact, those guys aren't even on the show. >> those two senators he could think of. >> that's right. >> now, now. come on. >> and -- >> i don't know. >> you definitely know today of all days you want to stick around to watch chuck's show. because there will be a countdown to a supreme court decision that will be monumental. up next, rick stengel to reveal the latest edition of "time" magazine. david gregory will be joining the conversation. i'm sure willie and i will ask him about the dodgers as well. you're watching -- what?

>> you're watching "morning joe" brewed by starbucks. it's not quite the same as the u.s. capitol, is it? >> a wind mill? stay in the moment sanya

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. my guess is, they're not sleeping real well at the white house tonight. that's the way it ought to be, all right. yeah. and this is a decision, by the way, about whether or not obama care is constitutional, whether it passes constitutional muster. and so we're all waiting to see how the court will decide. one thing we already know, however, we already know it's bad policy and it's got to go. >> welcome back to "morning joe." with us now from washington, moderator of "meet the press," mr. david gregory. david, good morning. >> good morning. >> so we won't ask you about the dodgers because we kind of did that with chuck in our last segment unless you want to go

there with what's wrong with the dodgers. we'll move on to bigger news. >> boy they are bleeding. >> i guess we're doing. >> like a stuffed pig. this is embarrassing. >> what's wrong? >> for one thing as magic johnson said you go through slumps and i think they can handle it. two, let's talk about the washington nationals and how they're doing. >> he is so promiscuous as a sports fan. oh, no, listen -- >> your baseball loyalty is about where you grow up. the dodgers for me. i like to encourage my children who are national fans. >> always about the kids. >> throws down his children now. >> the children are -- the children are our future. >> as someone once said. nice. using beautiful children as human shields. i love it. so david, let's talk about what we're going to hear in less than three hours from now. there does seem to be a large aspect of theater to all this. we've heard the president has several speechls prepared. we know mitt romney is prepared for several different outcomes here. how does this play out for both of these guys and does it become

as big an issue in this campaign as we think it might be? >> well, i think it's a big issue because mitt romney wants to stay on the offensive about health care, regardless. it's kind of a difficult issue for him, given what he did in massachusetts, but it represents to a lot of conservatives government overreach and so that is really the symbol of it. i don't think the issue goes away. i think the high anxiety that i've, you know, talked to people about within the white house is that it will have such a political impact, particularly of any part of this is struck down. because it would force the president to do a couple of things. one, he's got to try to make the case to the american people about what's left why it's important and what the implications are of anything that is struck down as part of the bill, and that's -- and then the second part is, he's got an opportunity to explain and sort of close the argument in a way he has not yet done. a lot of americans still don't understand what health care means to their lives unless there's been an immediate

benefit and it goes most of the benefit, most of the effect hasn't happened yet and won't until 2014. it becomes very difficult. and look, the president puts so much political capital into this fight. he faces the prospect of some or all of it being struck down. there's nothing you can say about that other than that's a disaster if that happens. >> harold ford? >> david, good morning. quickly, are there democrats in congressional and senate races touting their support and vote for the obama care legislation as a positive and campaigning on that? and two, as a part of that question, our poll, the nbc poll, still shows that about two-to-one margin more americans believe we're on the wrong track as opposed to the right track. the president still maintains narrow leads in some of the key state states. how do you reconcile that? >> i think that, you know, that's some measure of, you know, core support for the president. i think the right track/wrong track is a better measure of independent voting. i think even in the swing states

you're below 50% so i think that's a factor. i think, you know, you've also had in these swing states a barrage of ads against romney and his business record. i think some of his negatives are still high. but i think to your other point, harold, it's significant because i don't think there are a lot of democrats touting their support for it and i don't think they want to make that a big part of the conversation. even if it is upheld. which is why i spoke to one republican aide on capitol hill yesterday who said there's nothing that can happen today that takes us off of the offensive. republicans will still argue that the law needs to be repealed. the house speaker has said that will be, you know, what he tries to do this year. i still think that's the rallying cry. but i do say this, if the health care law is upheld, and there is the prospect of it, you know, as we're all making fun of this morning getting into the numbers, if it is a 6-3 decision, to uphold the law, that represents something significant for the robert court in terms of bipartisan.

>> that's big. >> the chief justice has despaired openly about the fact that our government institutions are too polarized and that a controversial decision that is a 5-4 decision, is ultimately a erodes over time because it's seen as so controversial and seen as so narrow. that's bad for the court and bad for the country. this is going to be an intriguing test of how the chief justice approaches all of this today. >> roberts writes the opinion. you're always trying to read the tea leaves. that could mean it's a 6-3 decision to uphold it. >> i know you'll be with us on nbc and msnbc all morning. >> he's hold up very well. >> who's on "meet the press" sunday? >> among our guests will be top democrat in the house, nancy pelosi. >> first time i've gotten to interview her on "meet the press." >> exclusive on sunday with david. we'll see you much more -- >> she's a giants fan, of course. this is going to be hurtful. >> that's -- that will be a problem. >> it's going to be personal. >> thanks, david. coming up the new issue of

"time" magazine with rick stengel and speak with the author of the book on the u.s. strategy in afghanistan and what he calls the administration's war within the war. "morning joe" back in a moment. [ male announcer ] every day, the world gets more complex. and this is what inspires us to create new technology. ♪ technology that connects us to everything the world has to offer and vice versa. ♪ technology that makes lightweight stronger, safer, and faster than ever before. ♪ technology that makes electric electrifying

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welcome back to "morning joe." i'm disturbed this morning for a lot of reasons. probably not the same reasons you're disturb the because i'm self-involved and shallow. to talk more about this let's bring in "time" magazine editor rick stengel. here to reveal the latest issue of "time" magazine and then i want to talk about regional profiling which willie and i have long advocated against and we think your editors your copy editors are engaging in regional profiling. first, rick stengel reveal the cover. >> one of the more important historical developments going on in the world today was the egyptian election. our cover story is about that. and entitled "the revolution that wasn't." because, in fact, what we had have happen for good or ill, we can talk about that is the reassertion of control by the egyptian military which in many ways hasn't been out of control

since 1932 and the election of mohamed morsi, the muslim brotherhood candidate, and the question is, how will this new egypt exist with those two powers side by side. will the military restrain anything that the muslim brotherhood wants to do and will morsi be able to have much room for movement. in fact, just before the election, the government restricted the powers of the president in terms of budget, in terms of foreign policy, so some say that he's just a puppet. >> of course, after the election, you had the court -- there's what you're talking about before -- passing a law that said the military couldn't arrest civilians. it's almost like this western battle between branches. james madison would be smiling. >> he didn't smile much. >> and he didn't smile much. >> as rick knows. >> what's going on in egypt. >> you could argue, and i'm not a foreign policy specialist --

you could argue for the u.s. and western interests this is the best of all possible worlds because the egyptian people got to handle and execute and feel good about democracy by electing the muslim brotherhood who had been persecuted by the government for decades and yet you have the stability of the generals, too, who want democracy that seems to work and now they could form this very almost holy alliance for democracy. >> right now i don't think in egypt it's politically possible to have one without the other. i just don't. hey, and let's talk about, obviously, a great loss for all of us here. we found out yesterday that i think everybody, everybody loved nora ephron and especially a guy that had more reason than most, tom hanks talked about his dear friend. >> well tom, you know, it all came -- came as a surprise, terrible surprise, to everybody and the first person i reached out to when i heard was tom hanks. tom hanks is a wonderful writer,

a great friend of hers. their careers in some ways were parallel. and i don't remember what time we got hold of him and it was finally like yesterday morning and he said, how soon do you need it? we said two hours. and there it was in jeff cluinger's inbox an hour later. a lovely piece about him working with her for the first time and actually, a side of her you hadn't seen, because he saw her first film -- i don't remember the name of it -- in a theater before he knew her and he just watched the tracking shots and a scene of julie caver in coming in from the outer bureaus to new york, i've never seen an accurate portrayal of driving over the queens bridge and into manhattan and when they met he said to her, i was bowled over by that scene and nora said, you noticed that. that sort of secured their friendship and be he talks about sides of her some of the other people haven't. she was a visionary seeing things ahead of time, even when

they were making "you've got mail" she said we've got to get this done before aol goes out of business. >> you know, you talked about her sharp eye. tom hanks talked about her sharp eye. he talked about that -- in this piece in "time," nora's sharp eye helped her in more prosaic ways as well. shooting in seattle the crew found this great new place for coffee called starbucks. as we bought lattes nora bought stock in the company. after reading her screenplay for "you've got mail" i told her, i was in. good, she said, but we have to start shooting in the next five minutes before aol disappears and something else takes place of e-mail. also, i love this quote by tom hanks. nora's world and willie this is what we heard time and time again yesterday on the show -- knowing and loving nora meant her world or her neighborhood became yours. she gave you books to read and she took you to cafes you'd never heard of that became

ledgens. you discovered krispy kremes from a box she held out and you learned that there is such a thing as a perfect tuna sandwich. she would give your kids small, goofy parts in movies with the caveat that they may not make the final cut but you'd get a tape of the scenes. >> we heard similar sentiment from merp streep, anothmeryl st worked with, it wasn't a professional relationship even, she was truly a friend, someone ulds call for the smallest bit of advice, what should i say in this speech, i have to give a commencement address, give me a line. she seemed to be someone that everybody could lean on. no matter how big a star they were. >> and not -- >> and the least snobbish person, very generous. i've often thought, you know, that, you know, siri on your iphone, that is -- you would want the voice of nora there. that's like where do i get the best tuna sandwich. what's the best cafe around here. she seemed to know something

more about everything that anybody else did and be a step ahead. and be incredibly generous about including you in that. you should know about that too, willie. >> mutual friend of ours who shall be unnamed once sent a screenplay to nora to read and the call came in after she'd read it saying, well, it's not terrible. >> for some that could be high praise. >> that's right. >> she was very kind. she believed in god, she believed in the american dream, she was not negative like you meacham. >> she was the american dream. i saw somebody tweeted yesterday, there's a hash "time" magazine -- hashtag for nora ephron, we all wanted to have what she was having. >> you stepped on my segway, but thank you anyway. willie geist you went south for a couple years. >> decade. >> in this conversation, i'm quoted and look how they spell what do you mean from me?

zoom in. wha tsh whatddya. we've been sadnd by regional bigotry and hatred. the soft bigotry of low expe expectati expectations. once again, why don't they just put a confederate flag around me and call me luke duke. >> the minute we take one step forward on this, two steps back. >> it's so sad. >> when you're talking, the copy test takes out its southern dix nagsry. you have a whole dictionary to yourself. >> we didn'tgo to the kennedy school of government. >> or run art museums or history museums or win pulitzer prizes. >> i'm still getting past meacham's thing where it said on "time" magazine "heaven is for suckers." i had to explain that to my little girl. >> oh, god. >> what you did. >> stalin and hitler said the same thing. >> rick wants to do love colon

overrated. >> overrated, yeah. we shall see. >> i'm go dg to do all of those instituti institutions, jon. >> that's right. >> he constructs them all for our children. the new cover of "time," the revolution that wasn't. a fascinating story. coming up next, how the recent presidents stack up against their predecessors. a full ranking of the author and editor of the national interest, robert merry. looking forward to that. that's going to be fun straight ahead on "morning joe."

the president from interview: i talk to folks on rope lines and in coffee shops. people who have been out of work. you can tell it wears on them. narrator: he's fought to pull us out of economic crisis for three years. and he still is. president obama's plan keeps taxes down for the middle class, invests in education and asks the wealthy to pay their fair share. mitt romney and his billionaire allies can spend milions to distort the president's words. but they're not interested in rebuilding the middle class. he is. i'm barack obama and i sven's home security gets the most rewards of any small business credit card! how does this thing work? oh, i like it! [ garth ] sven's small business earns 2% cash back on every purchase, every day! woo-hoo!!! so that's ten security gators, right? put them on my spark card! why settle for less? testing hot tar... great businesses deserve the most rewards!

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♪ welcome back to "morning joe." with us the editor of the national interest, robert merry,

out with a new book "where they stand the american presidents in the eyes of voters and historians" and jon meacham, these kind of lists have been just absolutely torturing expresidents since the first one was put out by schlessinger in 1948. >> that's right. president clinton was rating himself before this second term, i think. trying to figure out where he would stand. bob, you talked about two different categories or what joe just said. voters have one view, historians have another. where do they -- with which figures do they intersect? >> well, my insight was that we needed to sort of bring the voters into it because we had these polls of historians -- that's a body of literature that's been established over the decades, but the voters have a very strong opinions of these guys and they either re-elected them and after they re-elected they might have kept their party

in power after the second term or might have rejected them as they did say jimmy carter. in terms of the interesting thing is that there's a great deal of correlation between what history says and what the voters say. but there's a lot of distinction as well. harry truman is a great example. he was essentially shown the door by the american people. they were very unhappy with him. gallup poll rating of 22% in his last year in office and yet almost immediately he was a near great among historians. the point i make about this is that the voters and historians look at presidents very differently. historians look at the presidents in terms of their overall record, what did they accomplish during their tenure. the voters look at the president as they were invited to by the constitution in four-year terms. so his first term was absolutely heroic. if you just think about all the things he accomplished. the second term was really not much better than a disaster. sputtering economy, a war he couldn't get out of and couldn't

win, petty corruption. >> yeah. >> and so -- >> and snarky letters. let's talk about -- at the top of your list you have leaders of destiny, george washington, abraham lincoln, fdr followed by jefferson jackson and roosevelt. not a lot of surprises there. bottom of the list, james buchanan, franklin pierce, harold ford jr.'s favorite president, andrew johnson, millhard fillmore and warren g. harding but a more fascinating group, split decision presidents and one of those split decision presidents is a president who i appreciate more every year and moving him into like the near great or great list dwight eisenhower who quietly did things for eight years that nobody seemed to recognize. my mom who was an fdr democrat, said he was lazy, stupid and just played golf all day.

>> not true. >> that was the common attack on this guy that did some pretty extraordinary things over eight years. >> he did. but the split decision presidents are presidents who were two term presidents not succeeded by their own party. what you find is they had a very successful first term, could get re-elected, less successful, sometimes significantly less successful, sometimes moderately less successful second case. in eisenhower's case it wasn't that much worse but it wasn't quite the same success quotient he had in his first term. >> talk about president reagan? >> i do talk about president reagan and and i say he is very close to being within the category of the people i call leaders of destiny. because he was beloved by the american people, two-term president succeeded by his own party. bear in mind that's not easy to do. there aren't that many presidents who could accomplish that. secondly he transformed the political landscape and set the country on a new direction. he is not consistently hailed by

the historians in the polls, however, and i think that's because of sort of political biases in the early polls, that's changing. he's rising up, as did eisenhower, in the polls and i think he may make that circle. >> certainly john, you would agree, that the 20th century, no two presidents -- the two presidents that changed the direction of the country that fundamentally changed the political landscape were fdr d anand ronald reagan. >> wonderfully mirror images or opposite polls, depends on how you want to look at it, but reagan having been an fdr democrat, using fdr's language, rendezvous with destiny, in the '64 speech, sort of to try to shift the conversation away from the first question being what should government do to being what can the market do. >> also, he said, are you better off than you were four years ago, which is what roosevelt said in a fireside chat.

>> exactly. >> let me ask you this, you cite one criteria for a successful second term as the party in power, electing their party. what other attributes -- you said there's some second terms, eisenhower's, marginally worse , but not better. who had a second term that exceeded that by the measure they laid out. >> a great question and almost no president has a better first term than a second term. i am trying to think who may have. maybe your guy, andrew jackson. i don't think there were many who pulled that off. >> in recent history, reagan got reelected in 84. 49 states and one crisis after another. they took their eyes off the ball and iran contra started a lot of sputtering and we remember how things ended.

the brick throughs and even the great communicator was shut off. it was turned off in 86, 87. >> it getz longevity. in order to pull that off, you have to have eight full years without a combination of a downturn or blood from the streets or scandal to beset you or a war you can't control. >> bill clinton would say over yeefr years that we fought congress and balanced the budget and oversaw the creation of 20 million new jobs. passed medicare reform. y know all of this because i take credit for it as being a republican. the republican congress. the president, this president oversaw a fairly successful eight years. >> he say very solid president

and i think he will rise in the historian polls. i don't think he was a great president, but he was a very good president and governed effectively for six years. he spited his first two skbreers the american people handed his head to him and he learned how. >> there was a great example of what herald just asked. the president who did better his second term than his first. 93 and 94 he was a disaster but he was a mess. it was the 90s. >> who grew the most in his first term? >> maybe calvin coolidge. >> interesting. cal, baby. silent cal. great to have you here. the book is where they stand. thank you, robert. this is the sort of stuff that

keeps me up at night. we are dorks. next week on "morning joe," we will look at the american presidency much like this in celebration of july 4th week. we are bringing it all together. an all-star cast of historians to definitely into the legacies and the 43 men who had the honor of running america. of course john will be here and evan thomas. it's going to be a great week. stay with us. we will be back in a minute. ovit but centurylink is committed to being a different kind of communications company by continuing to help you do more and focus on the things that matter to you. recently, students from 31 countries took part in a science test.

the top academic performers surprised some people. so did the country that came in 17th place. let's raise the bar and elevate our academic standards. let's do what's best for our students-by investing in our teachers. let's solve this.

>> tomorrow on "morning joe," who will we have? this is an all-star cast looking at the list. it's the pantheon. tom brocaw, a former white house health adviser and senator ron johnson and former attorney general alberto gonzalez. that is a crew. new polling from three key battle ground states and three surprises including a real surprise in michigan for me. john meachem and harold

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it could be 6-3 air 8-1. if he thinks it's 5-0, join it to make it six. i don't know. >> i don't know either. the whole thing got me so crazy. >> maybe they will kill the other to make it 5-5 or maybe obama repeals the supreme court that comes with side of guacamole and maybe will be a car crash and the other saying i can't rule on it because he's my son and the justice say woman. anything could happen! >> good morning. 8 a.m. on the east coast. in washington. >> i don't know knows what's going to happen and the week

leading up to the super bowl and you have the week leading up to it and no one knows what's going to happen. they don't know. >> nobody has an idea. you have all the numbers, six, two, four, five, one, three, eight. the number i'm thinking of this morning. 428. the combined wins that were taken off the yankees starting rotation. andy pettitte. that's out for two months. that will be a problem with him. he's an old man. he's 40. he's an old guy. cc is out for a couple of weeks. >> he strained his groin. they will rest him until the all-star break. >> you have like a 17-game lead.

>> i think it's five. it's destiny. >> the school of management. this great point. the other three guys, they don't have to. it's a good thing. it was an interesting thing. you do your job and we will take care of it. >> that are took the shot off of his foot. he broke his fibula. he will be out for a couple of months. you just like saying fibula. >> they lost him and thought things would go down. all adds up overtime. these kids just segue. mitt romney in the swing state polls.

let's find 1 where he wins. this morning, a new poll shows a dead heat between president obama and mitt romney in three critical swing states. they are tied 45-45 in a new hampshire poll with president obama holding a slide lead in michigan for points and north carolina with two points. that's much better news than we saw for mitt romney yesterday. new hampshire break even is good for any republican. george w. bush won it back in 2004, but republicans don't usually win it. north carolina. you can see i'm surprised that president obama is still ahead by two points in north carolina. >> the power of incumbency and the convention is there and the demographic change there is in the area in the suburbs and i think as you listen to mitt

romney, there is a maturity factor missing. i listened to him talking about health care that everybody is predictioning they know what it is. he didn't sound mature. he said i bet the white house is not sleeping well tonight. he's a presidential candidate. he disagrees, but to lay out how we move forward, there is something missing there and if it comes, it helps him obviously and if it doesn't, it continues to aid the president. >> let's look at mitt romney talking about health care. >> my guess is they are not sleeping real well at the white house tonight. that's the way it ought to be. this is a decision, by the way, about whether or not obama care is constitutional. whether it passes constitution muster. we are all waiting to see how the court will decide. one thing we already know

however, we know it's bad policy and it's got to go. his policies were not focused on creating jobs. they were focused on implementing his liberal agenda. nothing wrong with having an agenda, but when the country is in crisis, you have a moral responsibility to help people come out of the crisis. not just bad policy, it was a moral fail tower put forward a piece of ledge stlagislation th wouldn't help people get back to work. >> that was based on the law i passed when i was governor of massachusetts. there is a trend out. you may not like mitt romney. i like him. i think he's a nice guy and you may think he's the worst thing ever for the united states of america, if you want to talk that way, talk that way, but you are wearing the romney this morning. look at that.

this is a trend that all the kids are picking up across america. even pulitzer prize-winning authors are wearing the romney. wow. >> i think harold is actually -- you should see his garage elevat elevator. the two of them. listen to him. >> you know what, you barbed the republican candidate. you have enough votes for the next election. >> i said positive things about his election. there is a seriousness if you top the talk about it, you should. all i'm saying is if you are running -- >> don't even start there. so much silly stuff gets said. don't get me started. the ghost of huey long rises. on the shorts of every ohio river where there is a factory being shut down by the

candidates. i have been critical. >> don't tax. he tags the man behind the tree. >> i only make a point that romney needs to be more serious about this. the country knows that today is momentous. if the court strikes it down, where do you go from here? i think that's what the country wants. >> we need to have a more serious campaign and all mitt romney's fault. it seems to me as mika -- it's important because we are not belittling your team. we are belittling you. >> listen to you. >> i'm joking. >> mika said people call this the seinfeld election. there is no seriousness on either side. >> not in a keep and fundamental way, no. there is no fdr and reagan.

even in a weird way it is more of a process election. either side has been willing to say we are going to throw our arms around simpson bowles. everything. joking aside, every election has to be framed as if it's destroyed. it's armageddon. >> as you told me earlier this week, this is going to have all the excitement of the jimmy carter and gerald r ford matchup. this is. this is more like 1976 than say 1980 or 1932. both of these guys are reading from the scripts and have the poll tested focus group messages and they are running with it. >> i think these are two wings of an establishment party. until one or the other says we

are really going to get serious about the debt and serious about the tax code, we have a way of actually doing something, you are talking about right now no one likes to admit this in politics, it makes what you do a little iffy, but right now it's a difference in degree, not kind. >> a lot of people are going to be putting their hair on fire over the next five months saying this election will be the most important. >> do not think they continue to deteriorate in our country. we have to respond and force another level of seriousness and dimension that i would agree is lacking. it's on both sides. >> serious. what else do you need? the numbers are all there on medicare and medicaid and social security and the national defense spending is way out of whack. we are spending $2 billion a

week rebuilding the country instead of rebuilding our own and cutting education and infrastructure and a tax code that is out of whack. what do you need to happen in athens to get america? i don't think either of these guys are being serious. it's unfortunate. should we go to the doctor? the doctor is in. >> he has been waiting patiently. >> you go to the doctor and the doctor is in. we had a big issue today. a big health care issue. i want to know how bad he is. >> the broken fibula. how long will he be out? >> that's not a small grade. >> weeks sounds about right to you? thanks for being with us this morning. >> in that resume, it's always worth it. the face off.

>> he's got the romney on too. this is a gorge bush tie. give me a break. >> the affordable care act. we know where you fall politically, dr. dean, i won't ask you to predict, but say the mandate is pulled out and that part is struck down. who claims victory and how does it play out? >> romney claims victory, but obama gets victory. i don't think it should have been in there in the first place. the bill does fine without it. a lot of things in this bill that people like. i believe that even though the obama folk who is put up a huge fuss about the mandate, if it gets struck down, romney will say it was ruined and all this stuff, but the truth is people have a lot to like in this bill and they got rid of the thing they really hate. i think that's a huge win for the president although he will lose the inside the beltway

skirmish in the first week or two. >> why did you say it wasn't necessary to begin with? >> it never has been necessary. we did this 20 years ago although a little toughner favor of the consumer and a lot of cry about the mandate and the insurance market was going to be ruined. we had insurance in vermont where everybody is guaranteed to buy insurance as long as they are citizens and where there is no individual mandate and you can't charge anybody more than 20% above your cheapest price for premium. it works fine without the mandate. we practiced that and you don't need it. this was a concoction of academia and it makes sense when you make the argument, but human behavior is not what economists predict. if it gets struck down, it will be a bust in the long run and probably the short run. >> so governor, let's talk about the practical impact on health care reform on the consumers.

what happens if the mandate pulls out. you can raise fees and taxes somewhere else. >> you don't have to. it's minimal. the insurance companies that raise premiums -- there not a lot that cheat, there a few and not many. that's the way human behavior is. if you were 55 years old and you didn't have insurance because you lost your job and this bill am of comes along and you won't hold out until the last minute. people don't do that. if you were 25, you would have because that's who does that. they are covered already. this is a minimal piece. much a do about nothing. this really makes very little difference. all the good things about the bill will be left. >> let's bring in kelly o'donnell who has been standing by. good to talk to you. >> you need feminine energy this morning. >> good to have you here.

>> i won't even say it. >> don't do. i think i know where you were going. >> that's why we have harold. go ahead. >> coming from a man with pink pants on. >> salmon. are you so insecure about your own masculinity that you can't wear pink pants? >> i have several pair, but i chose not to wear them on telephone. >> the dreaded east hampton clambake. holy cow. >> i worry about these two guys. >> you and i will talk while they work this out. lay out what today looks like in washington as you sit there. this is a historic day either way. >> i will be over to the court with pete william who is is such an expert on these things. one thing people may be surprised about who has not followed big decision days, this is not like a jury verdict in a

straight crime where there is one answer. this could be more complicated than that because the justices had to look at four questions. it is a complicated set of issues and they won't all agree. it may not be the instant score card. it may take time to play out. we will be watching for reaction and one of the things on capitol hill. they have been cautioning those that are so vocal to not spike the ball today if in fact some part is struck down. there is an expectations gain that republicans are concerned about that there is so much of a popular conversation that maybe the mandate would be the part that would be struck down. none of us know and democrats have been saying that they will

act in support of what's already there and seeing it roll in over a few years, the way the law is structured or fight another day. >> coming up, the progress with the troops making sustainable? our next guest offered an account of america's war strategy and the fighting among the president's work ethic. also ahead, how will the health care impact small business owners? msnbc's jj ram berg joins us to talk about that. first here is a check on the forecast. >> all eyes on colorado. the worst in their state's history. burning about 100 homes in the beautiful hills outside of colorado springs. the fire is 5% contained. 100 degree heat and gusty afternoon, it's a battle they have been losing. we will keep an eye on that one. the other story is the heat wave moveing for the west and pushing

all the way to the east coast by tomorrow. yesterday was 115 in hill city, kansas. hotter than phoenix and the second hottest spot in the entire planet. impressive stuff we are dealing with. let's talk about the temperatures. 108 in st. louis and chicago gets into the hundreds. the triple-digit shrub in columbus and birmingham, alabama. we expand to the east coast so get ready in richmond and charlotte and d.c. could be near 100. not like it will be here and peter out. it looks like we continue very hot from dallas to wichita. on saturday we should have 100 from kansas all the way to north carolina and everywhere in between. not like we are chilly in the great lakes either. we are not triple-digits, but it will be around 95. st. louis one the hottest spots at 108. you are watching "morning joe," brewed by starbucks. ♪

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>> every challenge we face, you get the final say. that's how democracy works. you can decide. you can decide whether we decide to keep our brave men and women in afghanistan indefinitely as mr. romney wants to do or whether we stick to the timeline i set that will finally bring our troops home. that will be your decision. >> president obama on the campaign trail earlier this week offering his take on how the election will affect the war in

afghanistan. here is the author of the new book, little america. >> the war within the war for afghanistan. good to have you with us. >> you nailed the name. >> i have been practicing in the mirror all night last night. i will screw it up at the end. >> before we get into the end, and the community. what is the rational for being in afghanistan. the rational shifted. >> to go with counter insurgency and propping up the government

and a corrupt government that wasn't doing right by its people. you guys have talked a lot about this. we are the optimistic type to be in a slightly better place. a strategy that really is trying to find a good way to the exits. >> to be more conservative with a strategy they understand. they are not going to remake. >> they finally understand it now, but it took years. that's what i chronicle in the book that looks at the foly and how it played out. in my view, going big was a big mistake. the afghans what they needed. and additional reconstruction systems. we fuelled the corruption and created economies of the economy. all the troops you bring in, the

cal ban comes to pay people off to snipe the boys and lay roadside bombs. it was counterproductive. with president obama, you expect that the political leaders with the strategy is rolling together. what i discovered was an infighting in washington, particularly between the state department and the white house and between richard holbrooke, the point man from afghanistan and senior officials of the security team at the white house. it was largely personal. holbrooke was brought to to try to see if they broached a peace deal and get them in the path of negotiations. he had his flaws, but this was his mandate. the folks at the white house

could not abide by him doing that and they thought he was going to hog the glory. petty stuff that blocked him from using military aircraft and the meetings at one point he is i bush appointee and hamid karzai comes in and condocket a plan and try to slip the president's talking point and everyone represents me and has my trust of. >> for those of us lucky enough to know richard, they kept it from a meeting. >> even richard would be represented, i think as well as anybody.

on the air, create a most defensive of sending troops into iran. off the air he was completely different. we hear that and that's not just richard. that is official washington coming on the show saying one thing on the air and off air going i don't know how we win. >> i detailed the process in the white house with regard to the president's announcement on the troop drawdowns. at that point the cia finished conducting an assessment of every district. they concluded that afghanistan was trying to stalemate. they not had an aggregate affect on changing. for all the improvements, things are going bad in the east and elsewhere. i asked a senior official. did you look at the assessment before the president made his

decision? they didn't want anything that would run counter to the narrative and the surge was working. that's what the president had to tell the american people. a president that was elected opposed a directionless war decided to triple the number of troops in another direction. you have seen the show and it goes back to the three weeks before the decision. every day we were saying don't do it. do not do it. don't give the generals the troops and you will get in deeper. people saw that. >> people searched. >> he was dopely ambivalent and

the advisers around him. from bide tone obama, spelling out his grave reservations. young first term democratic president who campaigned on iraq being the bad war couldn't stand up to the generals. a few months earlier, this was a key mistake. he signed off on the strategy early in his presidency. at that point not fully understanding what the price tag would be. general mcchrystal gets out there and it's sticker shock. this is in the box because it's our strategy and the military is asking for more. i don't think they thought it would work, but he didn't feel lick he could step up at that point. >> you talked about mcchrystal by the white house conversation, one of the president's top advisers. i'm not a genius, joe biden, he is probably saying the same thing. you will never give the generals

enough troops. they will figure out a way to blame you, a young democratic president. that's the way washington works. better to stand up to them now. he gave the generals what they ask for. they got under cut. the other generals. >> they would argue by putting the deadline on, he under cut the power of it. when you look at the record, there have been security changes and improvements in places and we can argue whether it's sustainable or not. the reason a lot of these places have transformed for the time being is because of hard nosed counter terrorist measures. it is sending the special forces guys at night killing and capturing senior leaders. it's doing what we are doing with drones in pakistan. the approach that biden wanted was actually the approach that

the military started to use and it started to generate traction. >> it would work. let's go back to it. your argument is that the president sent these troops in without the conviction that the strategy would work. >> yes. i can't look inside his head, but when you look at the evidence, you look at where his advi advisers were. you look at what most of the team thought should be done. >> what are do you think senator obama would do? >> if obama were running against obama, he would be highly critical of this and say this was a commitment of resources in support of a corrupt government, pouring in way more money than we needed. if this were a republican

administration, the democrats would be savaging them and we would hear about afghanistan at nearly every campaign stop. he has 90,000 troops deployed today. it is very rare that the candidates talk about this, in part because romney knows he doesn't have a good attack line. a mar jority of republicans think this is not a war worth fighting. we can't argue we should do more and obama doesn't want to remind the democrat he went against the views was many by surging. we are in an election year and men and women are dying there nearly every day and many losing limbs every day. billions of dollars still spent. it doesn't really rake all that much conversation. it's a tragedy. >> hardly at all. little america, the war within the war for afghanistan. the great book with a lot of

original reporting. thanks so much for being there. how this morning's ruling on health care may impact small business owners. jj ram berg joins us to take a look. keep it on "morning joe." [ male announcer ] you sprayed them.

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faced with a $27 million fund-raising shortfall, the host committee pulled the plug on using the charlotte motor speedway for the big kickoff. >> democrats have only themselves to blame for the shortfall. they refused all corporate money for the convention and they have tried to raise taxes on the top 1%. so i guess you don't need our money, democrats. why don't you run along and ask your little people that you love so much. i'm sure if they reach deep down into their couch cushion, they will find your $27 million. if not, maybe a tip jar on the president desk that said change

we believe in. >> hope he is doing his best. how ironic that democrats have to be so thrifty. the bank of america. let's take a look at the morning papers. my hometown and the news journal. air buzz is planning to build the first assembly line in the united states of america. in mobile, alabama, they are ready to invest humans of millions of dollars on boeing's home turf. florida expected to be a game changer for his own economy. they are planning to blowout the plant in tuscaloosa. las vegas is concerned about the state of the gaming industry. the united states, major casino

companies carry as much as $20 billion in debt. according to movies as confidence has stalled, so as willingness to step into casinos. >> lawmakers in the house and set to vote on whether to hold the attorney general eric holdner contempt of congress for something. at issue is holder's decision related to fast and furious. the operational on the u.s. border. that would be the first sitting attorney general to be held in contempt by the full house raising john meachem's question. an attorney for the governor, he said he is totally bored.

would you rather be teaching and he is four months into a 14-year sentence. >> i love that. >> when is your blog becoming? the house introduce are under way. >> up next, the host of your business. jj joins us. we'll be right back. high schools in six states enrolled in the national math and science initiative... ...which helped students and teachers get better results in ap courses. together, they raised ap test scores 138%. just imagine our potential... ...if the other states joined them. let's raise our scores. let's invest in our teachers and inspire our students. let's solve this.

>> welcome back to "morning joe." this is getting exciting. you have about an hour and 15 minutes until we may hear about this. perhaps those most affected by the decision, small business

owners. the law requires businesses with more than 50 employees to give affordable health care benefits by 2014. the host of msnbc's your business, jj ramburg. we hear about uncertainty all the time. the reason small businesses don't like this and the questions about it is uncertainty. they want to know one way or the other. how will today change things? >> there is so much misinformation about how this act affects small businesses. when you said, it affects as far as the requirement to give health insurance or provide it, it affects businesses that have more than 50 employees. small businesses. that is such a tiny percentages of small businesses. 96% of small businesses have less than 50 employees. they are not required to do anything. all of this talk about how this is going to hurt jobs and small businesses are not going to hire people, it doesn't apply because

of this 50-person requirement. there a tiny number of people who may have 49 and they are thinking do i get to the 50th post people with at least 25 already provide some sort of benefits. >> if the only people saying this were people on television and talk radio, that would be one thing. i am sure you know this as well as me. small business owners. most small business owners are scared to death of ryiising cos. >> they believe we brought tup by thi this is before the health care act continues. it's incredibly scary for a small business who wants to do

the right thing and provide health insurance and see the premiums go up significantly. now, whether the affordable health care reduces the premiums, that depends on who you are talking to. it falls on party lines. one side said the insurance companies are going to be hit with the big taxes because of the affordable care act and pass them along. premiums are not going to decrease. the other side said all of these exchanges will be created and small businesses will be able to pool employeesing to and premiums will decrease. that is the big key as to whether it hurts or helps and that is an unknown. >> i am surprised that the lack of knowledge and the ignorance not only by the american people, but lawmaker who is don't know what's in the bill. they didn't read it and have no

idea what the impact are. they asked small business owners, does this impact you or not? 10% said yes and 24% said no. look at the not sure. 66% have no idea whether it impacts them or not. >> do you think your business qualifies for a health care tax credit? what is that number? >> this is another part. this is nothing required that the government is actually giving to you. if you have less than 25 employees and make a certain amount of money, you actually are -- there is a tax credit available to you. this affects about three million businesses depending on who you ask. do you know how many people applied for that? >> 17? >> 170,000. out of the millions for what do you mean it's available. there is an education problem going on. the people saying one thing and people are not asking for it?

what happens in 2014 when so much is available, how are people going to understand what to do and what's allow and what's not? >> a lot of times the politicians and people talking about their problems have nothing to do with the underlying legislation. it's a communication problem? that's nonsense. in this case i think this white house and the democratic party is botched on this health care bill. >> running scared. >> i think the closeness of the vote. it is a self-inflicted wound to put all of this energy and muscle behind it. is that the number?

it's just not true. sundays and tune in for a special edition. >> jj has a book coming out. >> coming out in october. >> it's your business. >> it's your business. >> this is like this is your book. >> we're collaborate on it. >> we do a lot. >> thanks and we will see ow your business. an accident doesn't have to slow you down. with better car replacement available only with liberty mutual auto insurance, if your car's totaled, we give you the money for a car one model year newer. to learn more, visit us today. responsibility. what's your policy?

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>> our president is asking for money. that's what you have to do if you want to get elected. last night in miami beach, he mispronounced the name of their nba team. >> for would be incomplete if i did not congratulate the city of miami for having the world champion miami heat here in town. >> it's funny when it isn't you. >> this past weekend, all the big gop donors were at deer valley reshort at the first national romney victory retreat. you have to respect that sort of

confidence. the man has not been nominated yet and he is celebrating victory. i can't wait for this weekend's mitt romney's second inauguration hoe down library fund-raiser. the postal service is critical to our economy, delivering mail, medicine and packages. yet the house is considering a bill to close thousands of offices, slash service and layoff over 100,000 workers. the postal service is recording financial losses, but not for reasons you might think. the problem ? a burden no other agency or company bears. a 2006 law that drains $5 billion a year from post office revenue while the postal service is forced to overpay billions more into federal accounts.

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>> so good today. >> i learned it will be a good morning. a decision that can change the presidential race will be all over on msnbc. all the big guns coming out of that building. >> yes. what did you learn? >> the supreme court has the center of the country's political life. the neutral umpire. it is in fact that. you are so cynical. he