lost as the state's worst wildfire in history continues to burn. and move over, mick jagger. we have the big city mayor who is not afraid to strut his stuff. new orleans mayor mitch landrieu. good day. i'm andrea mitchell live in aspen, colorado. the supreme court used the "t" word and that gave republicans a big opening to label president obama as a tax and spend liberal, or try to. but their only problem is, didn't mitt romney do the very same thing in massachusetts? that's what democrats are asking. chris cillizza is an msnbc contributor and managing editor of postpolitics.com for our daily fix today. let's talk about this tax versus penalty. where does it all come down? wanted to show a little bit of eric fernstrom, the top advisor from the romney campaign, talking to chuck todd on the daily rundown this morning. >> the governor believes that what we put in place in

massachusetts was a penalty and he disagrees with the court's ruling that the mandate was a tax. but again -- >> so he agrees with the president? he agrees with the president that it is not -- he believes that you shouldn't call the tax penalty a tax, you should call it a penalty or a fee or a fine? >> that's correct. >> so how does this play out politically, chris? >> well, andrea, look, this was i think part of the reason that some republicans, establishment republicans, people who tried to get people like mitch daniel, governor of indiana, haley barbour, chris christie, other people in the race, was because they were worried that ultimately, mitt romney's experience in massachusetts on health care would take away a big hit on president obama. now, we kind of went away from that because we have been so focused on the economy, but look, the reality of the situation is if it's a tax in massachusetts, then it's a tax federally. if it's a penalty in

massachusetts, it's just very hard for mitt romney and his campaign to argue well, it's not a penalty nationally. this is in some ways the worry we had all the way back in the beginning of mitt romney's campaign, did what he do on health care make it so that he couldn't attack one of president obama's -- what republicans believe to be one of president obama's biggest weaknesses. >> and how important do you think this is going to be on the campaign? >> well, look, i would say that if the nominee of the republican party did not have the past on health care that mitt romney had, you would be hearing tax, tax, tax, tax, tax, even more than you're currently hearing it. they may try to figure out a way to finesse it, that well, the penalty was right for massachusetts, but it's a tax nationally. i don't know how you square that rhetorical circle. they may try to do it. but i think what it does is it takes away an obvious hit that mitt romney and his team could

use on barack obama just basically labeling him a big tax and spend liberal, that he's passing his health care plan that sure, it's constitutional because they're taxing people. it's just harder to make that argument given his past in massachusetts. so it may either lessen that attack or take it off the table entirely. eric fernstrom this morning seemed to take it off the table entirely to chuck todd this morning. >> really interesting. that's why that interview was -- is getting so much play and was such a big signal of where they're heading next. chris cillizza, thanks so much. see you later towards the end of the show. for more on just where the presidential campaign stands, as we kick off a very busy holiday week, i'm joined by the best of the best, e.j. deion, msnbc contributor and columnist for "washington post" and charlie cook, msnbc political analyst and editor of the cook political report. you both have been going around in aspen and talking to people all weekend about a lot of different things. charlie, first of all to you, the attacks on bain, working,

not working? e.j., i think you wrote about this as well today. >> i think that the romney campaign is paying a price for never having gone out and laid out a positive narrative of who their guy is, flesh him out as a three-dimensional human being. as a result, these bain attacks, outsourcing, layoffs, people, they're willing to say okay, he's a business guy, he's a smart successful business guy, but is he a ruthless cold-blooded or does he share our values. i think the romney campaign is paying a terrible price for not having humanized their candidate and it allows this stuff to stick to him like velcro. >> e.j.? >> i agree with that. in fact, i'm surprised the romney campaign hasn't spent some of its substantial resources just trying to paint a picture of the guy that might be attractive to people, because i think there's no question that this bain attack is working. if you look at your poll, the nbc/"wall street journal" poll, in the states where these ads are running, in the swing states, his experience with bain hurts him a lot more than it hurts him in a country as a whole.

even in the country as a whole, it's not helping him. i think this gives president obama, if he wants to take it, some other openings to say you know, all these deregulatory and tax cutting policies that romney says will create jobs, those aren't about creating jobs. he would be for those policies no matter what. i think there's a policy debate underneath the bain attack that we may also see in coming weeks. >> one of the things we've seen is that even though the romney camp has really outraised the obama camp, the obama campaign has been spending a whole lot more money right now up front to try to paint mitt romney -- >> i think what's happening is that there's a school of thought in the romney campaign, any day or dollar we're spending that's not on the economy is a day or a dollar lost. the thing is, the daily narrative of economic news is pushing a fire president obama, but the thing is the second half of that is do you want to hire mitt romney, and if -- no matter how smart he is and how successful, and how rich he's become in business, if they

don't think -- if they don't trust him, if they don't think he shares -- would share their values in terms of making economic decision, they could still want to fire obama but not hire romney and president obama wins. >> let me show you their ad that started on friday and ask both of you how effective you think this one is. this is the mitt romney ad against barack obama. >> barack obama's attacks against mitt romney, they're just not true. the "washington post" says on just about every level, this ad is misleading, unfair and untrue. but that's barack obama. he also attacked hillary clinton with vicious lies. >> he continues to spend millions of dollars perpetuating falsehoods so shame on you, barack obama. >> well, hillary clinton, the most popular figure in america -- in american politics, at least, and part of the obama administration, not campaigning because she's secretary of state, but now being used

obviously against barack obama by mitt romney. >> i would just say the least popular figure in american politics. very effective ad. >> i think it's effective for a couple reasons. one, it's a democrat. two, hillary clinton -- >> the democrat. >> -- is strong in swing states, particularly places like ohio and pennsylvania. there is, however, a fairly quick antidote to that ad which is hillary clinton coming out on behalf of barack obama saying something in response to that ad, or running a pro-obama/hillary clinton ad. >> which is hard for her to do as secretary of state. traditionally that's not the role. >> that is true. there may be some other way for her to put word out. but what's interesting is it doesn't even tell you what ad obama is running is untrue. it's just try to get people to disbelieve everything. what's odd of course is the romney campaign has played fairly fast and loose with the truth in the course of this campaign. >> one other thing i wanted to bring up about health care is according to the new cnn poll,

by 50-49, people agree with the supreme court decision so the country is evenly split which is basically a blank slate that either side can try to bring to bear. >> it's a cliche, but i think this issue was so thoroughly litigated in the court of public opinion two years ago that it's all sorted out. i think the president, it's factored into the stock price against the president. i think what the supreme court was going to decide wasn't going to make a whole lot of difference to most voters. they already formed opinions on health care. >> mitt romney and ann romney, when you talked about trying to flesh out who is this guy and does he share your values, mitt romney and ann romney jet skiing, i assume in new hampshire, so you can see that probably the best thing that he's got going for him is ann romney, who is out on the cover of "usa today" today talking about her struggle against m.s. and she's going to be writing a book, she says, about that. not about politics but about her health issues, her challenges

and what she's learned from them. >> first, i totally agree with that. i disagree with charlie on the health care thing. i think these are the best numbers the health care bill has had. i don't think it's fully litigated yet. i think there are a lot of americans who like a lot of the stuff in it but have said they don't like the health care bill whole. this gives another opportunity to argue about it. but on ann romney, i think she's his greatest asset and what she went through and the way she talks about how mitt romney comforted her, stood with her, she's a great asset to him. i don't think there's any doubt about it. >> charlie, e.j., thanks for being with us today. coming next, will israel attack iran even before our own election? what is the secret timetable that israeli officials are talking about? it's all the buzz here in aspen. and still ahead, new orleans mayor mitch landrieu joining me. plus, the financial times' jillian tet and politico's mike allen. this is "andrea mitchell

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here in aspen this weekend, israel's defense minister insisted that israel will act while it still can to stop iran from going nuclear and will not delegate that decision to the united states or anyone else. walter isaacson is president and ceo of the aspen institute. of course, author of the best-selling nonfiction book ever on steve jobs, and jeff goldberg is a national correspondent for "the atlantic" with me here as well. welcome both. jeff, you spent a lot of time

talking about the israeli question and obviously, listening to the barack speech here as well. he made it very clear, bottom line, they're not waiting for anybody. he did say the u.s. and israel are on the same page, sort of on the same page, about how far iran has gotten. >> right. >> but not necessarily on the same page about how far we're willing to let them go. >> they agree about the past. they don't agree about the future i think is the issue and the challenge for the obama administration. they agree on intelligence. they believe iran is moving toward nuclear weaponization. they agree they're trying to enrich uranium. they agree on all of that. they even agree on the sort of long-term timetable. where they disagree is when is the time to act against it, if sanctions fail and if negotiations fail. the israelis believe very strongly and we heard it here at the aspen ideas festival very clearly that they're not subcontracting out their security, their defense, to any other country, including the united states. which is their foremost ally.

so that was a kind of pretty bold statement that we're going to do this if we feel we need to do this. >> let me read a couple of the quotes. we cannot afford delegating the decision even into the hands of our most trusted and trustworthy allies which are you, united states. he said a nuclear military iran is the end of any conceivable antiproliferation regime because the saudis will turn nuclear within weeks. the turks will turn nuclear within several years and probably even new egypt would find no way to avoid turning into a military nuclear power. you spent a lot of time, walter, on the middle east. you've done work with the state department. you're head of the broadcasting commission that actually broadcasts american -- >> was, yeah. >> broadcasts into that region. we're looking into an apocalypse if this were to happen. >> one of the things -- >> according to the israeli perspective. >> one of the things minister barak said, which is the

capability of israel to take out the iranian nuclear threat exists now and there's a certain window. that window closes for israel, the united states has greater capability and probably has another year or so is the way he put it in which they could do that, but then if israel waited that long, it would be totally dependent on the united states. >> it's not going to wait that long. >> another interesting thing he said, though, in direct question from tom friedman, was do you trust president obama. he said yes, president obama is right with us. >> which is something you know the white house really wanted to hear. >> right. very much. you know, the interesting thing, something you mentioned which is really fascinating, is this. the israeli perspective on the consequences of a nuclear iran are also the obama perspective. when i interviewed him in march for "the atlantic" -- >> the president. >> the president, on this question, he spoke very strongly, very adamantly, about the day after and no one in the

white house doesn't believe, they all believe that saudi arabia would immediately go nuclear and believe you would soon be looking at a nuclear arms race in the world's most volatile area. >> another thing that is very clear is that from israel's perspective, they would take action even if it were to just slow down iran, whereas the u.s. intelligence officials and military officials with whom i talk are all talking about wanting to do something definitive, therefore, not wanting to do sort of something small, smaller, which is what israel could do. >> a lot of the military people from the united states who have been here talked about if you're going to do it -- >> do it. >> -- do it. we have capability, do something very definitive. i don't know what happens after you try to do that, what does iran look like. >> this is the problem. >> the other thing is the timing. right now, july 1st, yesterday, was the big kick-in of the sanctions. and what barak and the israelis

are saying is let's see how tough the sanctions are, whether they really work. the diplomacy surely over the weekend we saw is not working. the diplomacy on iran around the margins of the big syria summit. >> the big question is how long will the prime minister of israel and the defense minister of israel, how long will they wait before they rule, they decide themselves that nothing is working, and i think though the white house has put a lot of heat on them to say give these sanctions some time, obviously there's an american election in a few months and certainly the administration doesn't want a war in the middle east before that election. so they're hoping that the israelis give it some time, but the israelis believe that iran is entering what barak calls a zone of immunity at which point it will be impossible to use military force to stop the iranian program so all these clocks are ticking faster and faster. >> you think something could happen before our election? >> plausible. i would put it at 30% or 40%

which i guess is fairly high for something this dramatic. >> walter, in the other conversation, stan mcchrystal for the first time talking openly about what happened when that "rolling stone" article came out. said he got on a plane and flew back to the states from paris -- not from paris, from the middle east, and handed in his resignation. >> right. i think he felt you do not need to be that distracting to an administration, to a president, and he was very honorable about that. i certainly enjoyed being with him and admiral mullen. you see the leadership and the sense of honor that all of our military leaders have shown. >> one other thing that stan mcchrystal said in that conversation that really drove home to me, because we have been focusing here on education nation, also in partnership with you at the aspen ideas festival, when asked what is the greatest threat facing the united states, is it al qaeda, his answer was our declining schools, our poor education. this fits exactly what the council on foreign relations study that mike mullen was part

of, condi rice, that schools, poor education is now the greatest national security threat. >> the majority of kids are not coming out of high school able to go into the military. so that is a very specific national security threat. it gets even worse when you talk about the overall economy. i know nbc is doing the education nation, we're working with them on that. to me, almost every panel, not just national security panel but every panel, it comes back to k through 12 education in the united states. >> thank you so much. we will talk to mitch landrieu about everything you accomplished in new orleans. >> mitch is the greatest mayor and he has done a great job in new orleans. those from that town love him. >> jeff goldberg, thank you. up next, new orleans mayor mitch landrieu. what kind of setup could that be on health care? and bringing his city back from the economic brink. plus, the story behind those sensational dance moves by the mayor. to a little girl who saw flames reach her home

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tell your doctor your medical history and find an arthritis treatment for you. visit celebrex.com and ask your doctor about celebrex. for a body in motion. the louisiana governor bobby jindal over the weekend on "meet the press" a possible vice presidential contender, of course, made it very clear that he is not going to abide by the supreme court ruling. >> every governor's got two critical decisions to make. one is do we set up these exchanges and secondly, do we expand medicaid. in louisiana we're not doing either one of those things. i don't think it makes sense to do those. >> how will that refusal to accept the expanded medicaid program affect new orleans, for instance, with its large number of low income residents? joining me now is new orleans mayor, democrat mitch landrieu. mr. mayor, thanks so much for being with us. >> great to be with you. >> let's talk about the exchanges, the medicaid program. what will the governor's decision mean for new orleans? >> well, the governor and i get

along very well. but in my opinion he's wrong on both these things. unfortunately, louisiana has a very poor health care delivery system now. we have a lot of very poor people, lot of very sick people, and in my opinion, doing both of those things would be better for the state rather than not. >> is there anything that you as the mayor can do to persuade him? >> we can continue to talk to him. in the meantime, we will start working hard on getting ahead of the problem. in new orleans, we have moved away from a centralized health care delivery system to creating 88 primary health care clinics that actually get on the front end of this problem. this is something everybody in the country can agree on. to the extent that not doing these two things is going to affect now delivering primary care to folks in the state of louisiana, i think that's a bad decision. for example, we now have at one clinic on magazine street the ability to do a mammogram so 350 women that did not get screening before, and if those decisions threaten the ability to deliver that kind of care, i think it's a mistake. >> tell me about the comeback in new orleans since katrina. >> well -- >> give me the good news first. >> there's both.

it's a tale of two cities. new orleans has become an amazing way, because of the resilience of the new orleans people, this nation's most immediate laboratory for innovation and change. we have completely reconstructed our health care delivery system as i said. our education system, we now have more kids in charter schools than any other city in america. from an organizational structure of city government, we are completely transformed that to follow best practices that have been around for a very long period of time. we now have third parties coming in, saying new orleans is the fastest growing city in america, the best place to find a job. forbes and the "wall street journal" are talking about the recovery. so all of those things are very good. we have also become a hub for entrepreneurship in the country. that's great. but we still have our challenges like every other major american city does. >> one of those challenges is the murder rate. >> yes. there's no question about this. first of all, in actual numbers, we are actually number ten. new york has more murders than anywhere else in the country. chicago, philadelphia. but as per capita, we're

tenth -- ten times higher than anybody else. this is a national problem and i want to just speak to this very forcefully. >> i was just looking at numbers that said that if you are a young black male, one young black male is killed every 1.83 days. >> that's correct. you see this not only in new orleans but in every city and all mayors are starting to talk about this. in certain neighborhoods that are adjacent to cities, young african-american men are killing each other at catastrophic levels and they are absolutely doing it in the city of new orleans. it's a local problem, it's a national problem, it's one in my opinion that's unacceptable and one we have to be very forceful about. we are working very hard on that in the city. >> what about the corruption in the new orleans police department which was legendary and led to some dramatic convictions of course, what happened during hurricane katrina. >> first of all, katrina really reflected the greatest things about new orleans, things that were beautiful and wonderful, just made it much more evident and the things that were bad, put a magnifying glass on it. one of them was the police department. that's why i invited the justice department to come into the city. we're finalizing the last

strokes on a consent decree. the police department has begun to transform itself over the last two years and we're making great progress. it's a very, very important component of making sure the streets of the city are safe. we will get that right. >> in this national debate over health care, and of course, the economy, new orleans has had the tremendous benefit, if you will, since katrina, of a lot of corporate and federal help. so you've had the attention and the contributions. >> it's quite an amazing story. one of the reasons why it's been such a great success is because everybody who has responsibility has lived up to their responsibility. we have gladly in the city of new orleans accepted huge federal investments that were designed to reimburse us for the damage -- >> we are having a presidential campaign right now that is basically a debate over the role of the federal government. is government good, is it not good. >> if it's right -- >> can people be doing it on their own. >> if it's rightly placed and financed and managed, the

government can be a great partner. what's happening in new orleans is because we've had to, we had to find friends where we didn't have them before. now community groups, faith-based organizations, the business community and city government are all working together. the only things that have succeeded in new orleans have those components in it. where they have those different components, all pulling in the right direction. we've had great success. when we haven't had that, then we haven't. so for mayors, particularly this mayor, this notion of is the government good or bad is an irrelevant discussion. the federal government has a very active role and a very important role to play. so does the state government. so does the city government. so does the private sector. it has to be rightly organized, rightly structured. it has to be managed and has to be led. then it will work. >> i knew your dad. he was the mayor 30 years ago. >> he was. a much better mayor than i. >> is he as good a dancer? we went on your website and man, we found -- >> i can't believe you played that. no self-respecting mayor of new orleans would not have good moves.

how about that. that's the stompers. can you believe that? >> you've got the moves. >> to be the mayor of new orleans you got to love to eat, got to like to drink and have to love to dance. >> how do you remain so fit? >> you work really hard at it. then you buy big clothes. >> well, big clothes for a big man in a big job. >> thank you. >> mr. mayor, thank you very much. it's a great pleasure to have you here. for all of us at nbc news led by brian williams, of course, our team leader who went through what happened, it is amazing and dramatic to see at least the positive side. >> i really appreciate everything you guys have done. y'all have been great champions for us. thank you from the bottom of my heart. >> we thank you for the lessons learned. coming up next, former obama budget director pete orszag and from "financial times" gillian tett plus the heartbreaking return for residents here in colorado, to colorado springs. send me your thoughts on facebook and twitter. ok! who gets occasional constipation,

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thin coffee shops. people who i thave been out of work. you can tell it wears on them. narrator: he's fought to pull us out of economic crisis for three years. and he still is. president obama's plan keeps taxes down for the middle class, invests in education and asks the wealthy to pay their fair share. mitt romney and his billionaire allies can spend milions to distort the president's words. but they're not interested in

rebuilding the middle class. he is. i'm barack obama and i welcome back. topping the headlines right now on "andrea mitchell reports," the largest settlement ever by a drug company, the justice department says that health care giant glako smithkline has to pay $38 million in a fraud case after failing to report safety data, and promoting popular drugs for unapproved uses. 12 years after being ousted, mexico's old ruling party appears to have returned to power. the opponent has yet to concede. the election importantly signaled major shift away from calderon, the outgoing

president's controversial war against the drug cartels. in his acceptance speech, no mention was made of the drug lords. summer storms raced across parts of the east coast over the weekend, knocking out power to more than two million people from north carolina to new jersey. in some places, the power may be out all week. severe weather has been blamed for at least 18 deaths so far, most from trees falling on homes and on cars. to make matters worse, most of those who lost power are in the midst of a punishing heat wave. while the worst of it seems to have passed, temperatures will remain close to the triple digits across much of the country. here in colorado, residents across the state are picking up the pieces today as many are now being allowed to return home for the first time in the midst of an inferno that has been blazing for nine days in a large part of the state. colorado is one of nearly a dozen western states battling wildfires and one of the hardest hit.

president obama toured colorado springs on friday to thank the firefighters and comfort residents. we are joined from that battered city. >> reporter: good afternoon. the waldo canyon fire is the most destructive wildfire in colorado history. it has claimed two lives and nearly 350 homes. over the weekend, thousands of residents were able to go back up to their property for just a few hours, so many were able to see that devastation first-hand. this fire has consumed nearly 18,000 acres and today, it's roughly 55%, but crews make a point to point out that 45% of this fire still is roaring out of control. it's going to be a long and hot day for firefighters on the front lines. they are going to be dealing with high heat and some gusty winds. more officials from the obama administration are coming out this way to pledge their support as well as thank firefighters who have been battling this blaze for nine days now. of course, it was last tuesday when this fire was whipped out

of control. there certainly has been some progress but crews here concerned about the weather conditions. it's going to be a long day on the front lines. back to you. >> thanks to miguel for all of his coverage out there. there are renewed concerns about the economy with word that domestic manufacturing fell for the first time in nearly three years. an unwelcome sign about american productivity. peter orszag was president obama's first budget director, a key player in shaping the 2009 stimulus deal and the health care law. he is now at citigroup. gillian tett is u.s. managing editor for the "financial times." thanks for joining us. peter, what do these numbers which fell below 50 for the first time since 2009 tell us about american manufacturing and should we even be worried about falling back into a recession? >> well, i think what they really say is we are still in the midst of the deleveraging process that follows a financial crisis. we have made a lot of progress but we're not all the way through that. we keep having these charlie

brown moments where early in a year, we think we're going to grow really rapidly and then are disappointed that we don't. we shouldn't expect that until we're all the way through this process. >> in fact, the conventional wisdom was that the number would be at 52%. it came in at 49%. that's a pretty big drop. >> it's certainly disappointing. i would say it's not so much charlie brown, it's groundhog day. time and again we're having this disappointment set in. it's not just because of deleveraging. we also have these external shocks from the euro zone which have cobbled together another deal but no one quite believes it's going to work. of course, we also have countries like china which are beginning to emit slightly more worried signals. >> of course, the slowing economy is one of the reasons why there's a lot of oil and why prices have come down. that's a good thing but also a bad thing. it shows that there's less consumption because there's less manufacturing and less need for the oil. peter, going forward, take off all obama white house hats as you have, you removed that completely, how much trouble is

it for the president going forward, because you're not going to see the kind of job creation and real improvement that's felt by the american people before election day, are you? >> no. i think, look, this sort of central scenario is the continued hard slog of kind of sluggish growth and maybe a little bit of improvement on the unemployment rate, and the biggest risk at this point is that that's the best case scenario, that we could, because european policy makers think they have more time to act than they actually do, they miscalculate and cause a much bigger problem that would make even sluggish growth look optimistic. >> you're two of the smartest people i know on this subject. what about the eurozone? as you point out, they cobbled something together on friday, but do they have the time, do they have the luxury to wait for a real moment to get it all together? >> well, i think the problem right now is that we do feel that we've been marched up and down this hill so many times that politicians and voters and investors are getting pretty fed up. what is being produced so far is

yet again another band-aid, not a final solution. i interviewed larry summers here a couple days ago and he said the issue is they bought themselves more time. we still don't know what they're actually going to do with that time. >> peter, what is the investment world thinking -- >> look, we need -- this is a good step but not a full step. we need deposit insurance which would be part of what's recently been discussed. we need some way of injecting equity capital into the banking system directly, not going through sovereign governments. we need some way of neutralizing excessive sovereign debt, and that's only kind of partially on the table. finally, we need a much bigger bazooka. >> the financial institutions -- >> need to be perhaps one and a half to two trillion euros, not their current size, which is a half to a third of that. we're sort of parked way down the road but we're not all the -- >> really tough decisions. >> the problem is that this can

get away from you very quickly. >> let me just also ask you about health care and the economic impact of the supreme court decision. the cbo has said in the past that there will be big savings. do you accept those forecasts now? >> i think actually one of the untold stories over the past few years is there's been a huge amount of movement. health care costs have decelerated. the big debate is is that just because the economy has slowed down or is there structural change. fascinating thing from here at aspen, the head of brigham and women's in massachusetts -- >> big hospital in massachusetts. >> in their internal planning, they are assuming that within three years, all of the money they are paid will not be fee for service, it will be some kind of risk payment. that is a massive change and it's happening at hospitals across the country. >> that would mean real savings. what if 26 states, the 26 states that challenge the law follow the lead of virginia and bobby jindal in louisiana and refuse to implement it?

>> what we're essentially heading for is another war of attrition where we post the election could see all sorts of jockeying again and it's another factor creating uncertainty along with the eurozone and the fiscal cliff, let's not forget about that, which is dampening down consumer and business confidence and just making people freeze while they wait to see what happens next. >> what about that fiscal cliff, peter, where you've got the bush tax cuts set to expire, the debt ceiling confrontation and all of the budget cuts, the automatic budget cuts, unless they do something about it. >> well, look, the economy will be in no shape to handle a 3% to 5% of gdp fiscal contraction in january which is what will happen if the fiscal cliff fully takes effect. i suspect what will occur is we may actually have to go over the cliff for a short period of time with a lot of turbulence and then a deal gets done after a week or two but let me put it this way. the probability we have a very soft landing of the planes coming down, we just land

softly, strikes me as very low. >> very low probability. >> i think we'll have a lot of turbulence. >> peter is predicting bungee jumping. >> it's like the first t.a.r.p. vote. we saw they voted it down, then got so scared they came back and approved it. >> i hope i'm wrong. i think that's the central expectation. >> well, the other side of the coin, larry summers said on saturday he thought some kind of deal would be done and they wouldn't go off the fiscal cliff. certainly some people are trying to be optimistic but it's pretty tough right now. >> we have to leave it there. i think a little bit optimistic but not a whole lot. in fact, pretty gloomy. how could you be gloomy on such a beautiful day? gillian tett, peter orszag, thank you both very much. up next, the politico briefing. we're live in aspen with the man himself. mike allen. this is "andrea mitchell reports." ♪

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coming up on "news nation" new developments on that deadly storm to strike much of this country. from illinois to new jersey, around two million are still without power and it may take a week for it to come back on. i'll get the very latest from the area's largest utility company in the d.c. area. also, the dnc's patrick gaspar will join us. i will ask him to respond to comments that the president's health care mandate is not a tax. and a popular disney villain gets a controversial new makeover. in today's politico briefing, all the buzz here at the aspen ideas festival has been about how all the buzz can sometimes be wrong. from the speculation over just how the supreme court would rule on health care to just how much money president obama could raise for the re-election, the

conventional wisdom has been wrong in all cases. joining me now is politico's chief white house correspondent, mike allen. mike, we're here to beat up on ourselves. >> there's plenty of people who would love to take a swing. >> why do you think, here it's a moment or a weekend to take a step back, rethink, listen to people from around the country and around the world. why do you think that everyone guessed wrong on the supreme court? >> great thing about being here in aspen, some people call it d.c. summer camp, is the chance to sort of hit pause on our lives. somebody talked about how you and i are sort of in a pinball machine every day. pull the camera back, talk about big issues. your great panel yesterday about character and education panels will how we turn boys into men, how camps are good at that, colleges aren't. but one thing we get to do is look at ourselves and our own business, and we had a great conversation last night at a bar here in aspen --

>> always a good place to have it. >> this one was on camera. it promotes good behavior. about just why we have gotten so many things wrong. >> what was the conclusion? >> well, one of them was we're so close that we don't pull back and think about the big terrain, that in the end this election is to be decided on two things, i think. how people feel about the country and how people feel about these two leaders. everything else is sort of noise on the route to there. when we talk about the supreme court, it may matter in the sense that president obama looks like a winner. that's the sort of intangible thing that seeps in with lower information voters, people who really aren't paying attention, who in the end are going to be the ones who tip it. >> a lot of talk about chief justice roberts. cbs reported over the weekend that he had changed sides. there's a lot of reading the entrails of the various decisions, opinions, majority and dissent, but as pete williams points out, that is always the case in these big

cases in closely decided cases, they trade opinions back and forth after their initial vote. they take a vote the day after the argument in chamber, in conference, then they trade opinions and keep trying to change each other's minds. the great chief minds. and the great chief justices turn out to be the ones who can be leaders. one of the reasons why president bush wanted to nominate john roberts is, first of all, he's young, and because of his work in the counsel's office he was viewed as a persuasive fellow. >> and we do have a lot of indication from his comments and writings over the years that he does care about the court as an institution and that's someone you want as a chief justice. and an individual opinion here or there may break, but the legitimacy of the court matters to him. and you, again, pulling back the camera. if you look at the opinions over the term, there was no over friendliness to the administration. neither was there an

unwillingness to listen to the administration. the poor solicitor general who got beaten up so badly. you want to talk about another time when we were wrong when the conventional wisdom was so wrong despite a halting flawed presentation. he prevails. >> in fact, he said something recently at a commencement at columbia law school it was painful for him to see how he was portrayed in public. i saw the tweets while we were all preparing the show not to be too much of a complainer, you were out having a hike this morning. >> yes, we took a great hike this morning as the people from npr organized it. >> i seen our friend there. >> and this, by the way, the kind of place where a cab driver is extremely excited to be driving. why didn't you tell me? he said at least one of the hikers there was in wing tips. so that's my kind of hike. a little less strenuous than the

five-miler that peter orzag the going to do tomorrow. and right after this, i'm going to take a ride down to the woody creek tavern and sit where hunter thompson sat. >> well, the holy grail. >> exactly. >> great to see you. thank you so much. and what political story will make headlines in the next 24 hours? we'll be back with chris and melissa next. that's true. ...but you still have to go to the gym. ♪ the one and only, cheerios

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which political story will make headlines in the next 24 hours. msnbc contributor is back with us. chris, first of all, i'm going off to host a panel for education nation and the ideas festival. with howard gardner from harvard on arts and education, but the question to you is, when are you going to get your power back in d.c. and virginia? and your own home? and what is baby charlee doing without any power? >> that hosting a power in aspen with that beautiful view behind you, i'm going to go back to my

house without power since friday night. it's about 115 on the top floor currently. we are far from alone, andrea. when you come back, you'll see lots of downed trees and power lines, i hope everybody stays safe. it's scary. >> we lost trees too. but the people who suffered are those without power. that does it for this edition. live from the aspen ideas festival, join us tomorrow. and we have npr back from his hike in the creek. remember, follow the show online and on twitter. my colleague craig melvin has a look at what's next on "news nation." hi, craig. >> we are actually going to pick things up right where you and chris left them off. 2 million people without power and it may take a week to come back on i'm going to get the latest from the ceo of pepco.

also the dnc will join me live. new comments from mitt romney's senior adviser saying he agrees with the president at the health care mandate is not a tax. and then today's "news nation gut check" a popular disney villain gets a controversial new makeover. go ahead of him and win fifty thousand dollars. congratulations you are our one millionth customer. people don't like to miss out on money that should have been theirs. that's why at ally we have the raise your rate 2-year cd. you can get a one-time rate increase if our two-year rate goes up. if your bank makes you miss out, you need an ally. ally bank. no nonsense. just people sense. i've got a nice long life ahead. big plans. so when i found out medicare doesn't pay all my medical expenses, i looked at my options. then i got a medicare supplement insurance plan.

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