quality. >> if kids have a hope of competing in the world, they have got to start learning mandarin today. my 3 and 4-year-old. >> there is an astronomy magazine. >> i learned that amelia airhardt is enduring a lot. >> daily run down starts right now. >> independents day. did president obama get a boost from the supreme court health care ruling? we're going to chew through a ton of new numbers out this morning. romney agrees with president obama that the mandate should not be caused a tax.

plus we are taking a deep dive out west to meet the woman who becomes the first african-american republican woman ever elected. should be the first african-american woman elected to the house. utah voters on the verge of creating history. it's tuesday, july 3, 2012. this was a tweenor day between declaring independence and getting it pen to paper the next day. what did they do in july 3? some day we will know the fuller story. a bunch of new polls out this morning gives us our first real look at how last week's supreme court decision is being digested by the public. the verdict? the court's ruling did give the president a minor boost.

the public seems to be split right down the middle on the decision. look at that. you see it is pretty much even on both sides. it is up four points from may. we're still outnumbered by republicans who strongly oppose the law, the proportion of democrats who say they have a very favorable view of the law has jumped from 31% to 47% this month. it's an all time high in polling stretching back two years. as you see that jump is largely driven by self-described democrats whose views of the law surged 19 points. republicans are still more

likely than democrats to say the law will make them turn out to vote in november. 31% say it will make them more likely to vote compared to 18% of democrats. and what amounts to a head to head between the presidential. 45% of americans have a favorable view of his plan. 48% unfavorable. romney's plans work. another number. the white house has to be satisfied by 56%. opponents should stop their efforts to block the law and move on to other problems. but while 82% of democrats and 51% of independents say those opponents should just move on, only 26% of republicans should

do that. this goes to the question of whether either presidential campaign is likely to let it dominate. so what did i learn from these polls? you saw democrats who may have been skeptical about this rally around the decision that helped boost the number. you look at the opposition. the entire time depending on how different polling organizations asked the question. base republicans conservatives hitting in there. look to the movement in the positive direction came from democrats with a few independents. that head to head match-up is fascinating considering what our next story is about.

so moving on to the clip that dominated the political news and muddied the waters for republicans who want to make lemonade out of the lemons handed to them. >> he disagrees with the court's ruling that the mandate was a tax. >> he agrees with the president? >> he agrees with the president that it is not and he believes that you should not call the tax penalty a tax, you should call it a penalty or a fee or a fine? >> that's correct. >> that's the answer to the straightforward question. >> the supreme court which has the final say says it is a tax.

>> it's not a tax. the court said it was a tax. >> it's not obama care. it's obama tax. this is a tax. >> immediately democrat passed. >> he will repeal all of obama care on day one. two that he agreed with the dissent part because he thought the entire thing was unconstitutional. >> the important thing is moving forward. romney said he wants to abolish this. it is an unconstitutional

whatever you want to call it. it's clearly a tax. >> meanwhile the romney campaign put out a statement which turned the focus back to the president. the supreme court left president obama with two choices. the federal individual mandate is either a constitutional tax or an unconstitutional penalty. romney thinks it is an unconstitutional penalty. what is president obama's position. it's probably clear that he was trying to make sure that romney looked consistent knowing there are plenty of clips like this one on meet the press that do exist. >> it would become a tax. >> it's reality. i have -- i am not trying to hide from the fact that we raise

fees. that was separate from the health care part of this. but that goes to the whole argument that romney had back in 2007, 2008. you don't have to be a virgin to make the case against promiscuity. bottom line is what you saw, you saw eric trying to make sure that romney does not look like a flip-flopper. republicans want to do this in another place. >> finally, what do you do if attacks are working? you air more of them. that is what the campaign is doing in a new add this morning that focuses on romney's business background.

>> what a president believes matters. mitt romney's companies were pioneers in outsourcing u.s. jobs to low wage countries. he supports tax breaks for companies that shift jobs overseas. president obama believes in insourcing. he fought to save the u.s. auto industry and favors companies that bring jobs home. outsourcing versus insourcing. it matters. >> that ad is airing in the same nine states where the president has been advertising. the obama campaign is spending $5.3 million on the air in several states this month. >> the reason for the spending spike look no further than the sunshine state.

ohio and colorado round out the top four places where they are spending. the romney campaign is still not advertising in. we will have more on who is spending where in about 15 minutes. i'm going to the map, folks. >> the bank admitted that some of its traders attempted to manipulate the market. let's get the market run down. we went through the whole jp diamond episode. obviously this is not the same. but i will be honest with you. the same impression to average americans which is, you know what? wall street making -- playing by its own set of rules. >> that's very true. it does shape the confidence of

main street. they don't really understand this certainly does not help. let's put it at that. right now futures are indicating a slight negative with 20 minutes here to go. it is a shortened trading day completely tomorrow. trading volume expected to be relatively light. the focus will be on vaktry orders. we did already get prices better than expected up 20% for the month of june. there was a bit of concern after a slowing trend last month. and lastly i do want to mention that the fed will publish the public portion. this is from dodd frank and how they would unwind in the case of a major emergency. chuck? >> to call a banks living will.

it's scary stuff. >> up next, a rare moment of agreement on the campaign trail. who stands to lose the most? we will bring an end. two of our favorites. strategy session. and while president obama gets set to hit the road, mitt romney makes plans to rack up serious frequent flier miles. we will explain. and u.s. is not sitting idly by. we're going to talk about the latest escalating tensions there. you're watching the daily run down. people have doubts about taking aspirin for pain. but they haven't experienced extra strength bayer advanced aspirin. in fact, in a recent survey,

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>> when is a tax not a tax? perhaps when it's at the heart of a presidential campaign. those three letters are changing the way that the landmark health care ruling is handled. it's frost and davis time. okay. when is a tax a tax? you have been joking about it. you call it and say it's not a tax or penalty. >> revenue enhancement measure. >> this argument that congressional republicans -- can they talk about it as a tax and mitt romney talk about it as not? >> the tax and supreme court said it's a tax. when you buy a pack of cigarettes is it a penalty or a

tax? >> he actually, he is a great piece you're about to put up. the word tax is 28 times on the decision. not only that he said a penalty means you have done something wrong. a tax is not -- is not somehow you did something wrong and roberts in this opinion wants to make sure. not buying health insurance, you're not committing a crime. >> all of this is irrelevant. the romney campaign should be talking about the economy. i think they are wasting time on this. i know the republican base wants to talk about this one. this will not be a determining issue. the economy is what it's all about. i would do whatever they have to do to pass it by their base. they should not be spending a lot of time on those. >> our cc is running right now the house race. i think the one example that we have, a democratic congress

woman showed two people texting and it's all about health care. is this the idea that if romney plays this right, he won't have to talk about -- against the republican base. >> but your own polling shows that it does not poll that well among independents. >> okay. but go ahead. >> independents want this thing to go away. they want to get on to other issues and i hope the republicans do keep helping this. if i were running the republican campaign committee as tom did, i would tell my candidates keep

talking about the economy. find a way to talk about the economy and realize you have got deal with it. >> what happens when a democratic house or candidate does this. >> i don't think it works. if they voted for it, they're on the hook for it. >> let's talk about the economy. >> we have good news on housing. bad news on manufacturing over all. >> if i were the obama campaign and they rarely ask my opinion, i would talk about the autos. >> which we gist saw in the new ad. >> ohio, wisconsin, michigan, and i would talk about that every single day. that has been their strongest issue to appeal to blue collar voters. they will have to say what they

want to do for the future. eventually they will have to address the goals and recommendations. >> you know, i did the little numbers yesterday and did our map and showed that romney can win every other battleground shake. he cannot -- he is three electoral votes shy. even with new hampshire and colorado, virginia. >> ohio is the easiest of those. i looked at the ads for obama. if you look, he is not in wisconsin and michigan and those are states on the bubble. >> romney is -- he is not on the air in pennsylvania, not on the air in michigan, not on the air in wisconsin. >> this race does not really engage until after the conventions. >> the average person, 40% of the voters don't know about the

supreme court ruling. >> i looked at those numbers, too. romney has to carry florida, virginia, and ohio. now his trip to israel makes a lot of sense for him in terms of florida. >> one sweep. >> i remember when obama went to israel in the summer of 2008. my grandson who was 11 is now 15 commented on what he was wearing when he went to the wall. my grandson is from an orthodox family. those little things make a difference. >> i think it's huge. a swing element in florida and ohio and virginia.

>> up next, follow the money. we have an update on where the campaigns and super pac allies. and other pollsters when you pick battleground states, pick states where campaigns are actually battling. here is the answer. the answer is more coming up. [ female announcer ] research suggests the health of our cells plays a key role throughout our entire lives. ♪ one a day women's 50+ is a complete multi-vitamin designed for women's health concerns as we age.

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the super pac have already spent over $180 million to date on the design to win your vote. that is a third more than bush and gore spent in the fall campaign in 2000. think about that. the fall campaign has not started. if you placed a map of the battleground states, it would match up almost exactly. in the case of the president's re-election campaign, it's nine states. let me show you where we are here. here is the president's map. from nevada and colorado in the west, notice, no wisconsin or michigan net. here is the romney campaign. look at the states they are missing. they are in eight of the same nine states but no pi pi, no

michigan, and no wisconsin. a lot of the skipping seems to have to do with the fact that they are all a little nervous about the saturation during the recall. let's move on. this is the coke brothers. look at the additional states we have here. they are in wisconsin. they are in minnesota and new mexico. two states sort of, republican dreams if you will. certain women for america were both up in those states. americans for prosperity went ahead and picked it up, running their adds here. we will see if it moves any numbers. i'm going to go back basically a month. so four weeks ago, this one was

the top ten markets. four of the ten were in. a week later you still had a couple -- you had one north carolina market in the top ten. as you see there it went from columbus to richmond. watch closely in the back and fourth. you will see it teeters back and forth. colorado makes its debut. look what state is not on here any more. look at what state debuts? the state of florida. colorado springs, first time a colorado mark was number one. there is always a virginia and ohio in the top five. no iowa any more.

let's fast forward to this week. colorado springs, second week in a row they are number one. look at the florida markets now. again, look at what's missing. no north carolina. a lot of times you see the campaign. most saturation of television ads looks like what everybody has been telling you. this state is going to come down to two states. you cannot see how romney gets to 270 without winning both of these states. the obama campaign knows it. they just think they need to do more. remember when the obama campaign launched it?

columbus, ohio and richmond, virginia. >> we're heading out wets for an out of the ordinary congressional race. it could tell us a lot more. find out more about the candidate hoping to become the first black republican woman in congress. have our fridges cater our parties. and tell our ranges to whip up dinner. let's plug in to summer savings before they're gone... ...without wasting an ounce of energy with smart machines that turn housework into house play. more saving. more doing. that's the power of the home depot. right now, save $600 on this maytag french door refrigerator, just $1,598.

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military does. >> they are going to be visiting colorado and idaho in response to the deadly wild fires there. they head to boise today. virginia governor chairing the platform committee at the republican national convention. that means he will probably not be the pick do we read between the lines there?

>> in today's deep dive we will take a look at a potential new republican star rising in utah. an african-american population of about 1% and she stands out from there. she is a young fiscally conservative woman who happens to be black and running for congress. after blowing out her competition, the utah republican convention she won 70% of the delegates and that was enough support to by pass a primary election. she faces a tough fight fwens a long time name in utah politics and the six term democrat and n what has become one of the more closely watched congressional races in the country and she has the support of some big name republicans.

craig velvet is here. you went out to utah. what did you learn? >> one thing, she is quite the runner. they may not know her name just yet but she is creating quite the stir within the republican party, generating some sorely needed buzz and excitement. the trail running native new yorker who has adopted utah as her home and converted to mormonism as her faith. he is set to hit the political big time as she makes a historic run for congress. >> it's quite the hill. >> it gets worse. >> mia love is the running, gunning rsh how's it going? >> how are you? >> mayor of saratoga springs, a

town of 20,000. >> i love it. life is just great out here. >> the 36-year-old became the republican nominee for congress in utah's fourth district. now love is running the race of her life. a win in november means she would make history. the first black republican woman ever elected to congress. but that's not what she wants to talk about. >> we're focused on color and race when you should be focused on preserving the future, preserving this country. >> you don't talk about race a lot do you? >> i don't because it doesn't define who i am. >> in a town that is more than 90% white, they don't mind either. >> her race is not an issue to me. >> the mother of three would rather be known for her brand of conservati conservatism, rooted in her mormon faith.

>> i support marriage between a man and a woman. >> and her haitian parent's immigrant upbringing. >> i am a product of the american dream. >> she would vote to shrink programs aimed at reducing poverty, simplify the tax code and overall popular programs. >> i think my opponent represents views that are way out there. >> for 12 years congressman has repped the most republican district held by a democrat. he is the son of a former governor and at mids that love's story is compelling but not her politics. >> i don't think utah families want someone who says we should stop doing student loans. >> there is a sense by some of

the mormon republican voters that electing a black republican woman would demonstrate whatever people say about mormons is maybe not so true. >> she is used to sloging uphill and knows this will be a long hard race. >> i might say she is about a little better than that. it's a tough new district. they redrew it in a way to make it harder for matheson to hold on. >> you were a decent runner. >> that was carefully edited. >> you ran what?

about a block or two? >> you know me well. >> nice work. >> we're taking a closer look at the new polls we told you about at the top of the hour. the fight over taxes. first, the five people look at this one. it's minstrone chicken. who has chicken with their minstrone? unless you have it like it's truly meant to be. watching the daily run down. we will see you right back. hi, i'm phil mickelson. i've been fortunate to win on golf's biggest stages. but when joint pain and stiffness from psoriatic arthritis hit, even the smallest things became difficult. i finally understood what serious joint pain is like. i talked to my rheumatologist and he prescribed enbrel. enbrel can help relieve pain, stiffness,

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they're in or no party at all. i won't do it from the governor's desk. >> the daily flash back to this day in 2009 when sarah palin abruptly ruined a lot of our days off and announced that she was resigning as governor. she wanted to foe kwus on worthy causes and not the super official political blood sport that had become of alaska politics. >> right now president obama is hanging on to a slim lead that puts the race in a tie. these are the latest numbers that we have out there. maybe not reassuring for anybody. somehow has the president surging to a five point lead. i'm sure tomorrow it will flip the other way.

>> david hawkens is the editor. what is this? >> fair enough. all right. >> it looked to me like it was skeptical democrats. that's what it looked like to me.

>> certainly romney and obama have seemed to make a truth on this in saying that they're really not going to talk about health care that much. you look at all of the press releases that romney has made so far. not a lot on health care. talk to democrats. they feel like people already don't like health care already ubs understand it as a tax. so this new frame something not necessarily going to need it.

>> more to the point, it takes the issue off the table. >> do you expect him to go on health care? >> here's the problem, chuck. i think the last week shows some of the core problems with romney's candidacy between the arizona immigration case and the fact that he still can't figure out what to say about it. >> and this particular issue really makes that clear. and finally the vanity fair piece about money.

>> that's a great piece. it's interesting. she brought up the immigration thing. instead we're now at status quo. democrats saying hey, we were right, let's move on. is the immigration decision actually politically potentially more impactful? >> i think it will energy a crucial block, the hispanics.

you saw democrats. look at these favorable numbers. among republicans, 30rks 38. >> and this could be a temporary love affair. all of the publications that are coming up. bashing. and with the voting rights. so he could certainly swing back and become not so well liked. >> this is a new democrat conspiracy theory? john roberts was buying more capital? >> i have never pretended to know what the supreme court is going to do. but what is important is that you look in these poles, at the standing on health care versus romney's, it's very clear that they continued attack from the

republicans on health care have a potential to hurt the romney candidacy. >> and the fatigue factor. >> when we come back i want to talk about battlegrounds that we talked about. merging them with the day did congress vote for independence? they approved the resolution and wrote these united colonies ought to be free and independent states. john adams believed july 2nd, but we instead celebrate july 4th. i guess it's the day of sticking to congress, right? even in our beginning, we were not going to give congress that sort of power. we'll be right back. you are watching "the daily rundown" only on msnbc. ordinary sunblock drips and whitens. neutrogena® wet skin cuts through water. forms a broad spectrum barrier

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>> let's bring back the panel. i want to go back to the deep dive on ad spending matching it up for quick reference for you guys, let's put up the top ten. the top ten marks of this cycle. hopefully we will get it up there. the week going. it started yesterday. week forward, most saturated markets. this is not where most of the money is being spent. most saturated. there is the five states represented. colorado springs twice in a row. it's not to say you are not still advertising in north carolina, but it seems to say something about the saturation. what should we read into saturation? >> i think you can read all kinds of things. in your earlier set up, you

showed the amount of money being spent as well, and as they move more into markets, campaigns have to move as well. what you should take away is that there refined battle grounds and virginia that four years ago people thought was a fluke is now a genuine battle ground and florida are saying no way obama can win is a battle ground. >> when i am looking at ad spending, everybody delayed. once you're in, now it's in and certainly -- it's passed over. >> we have seen the congressional spending. colorado springs. florida, the democrats think they have two guys on the ropes. >> how about virginia that will have a knock down drag out senate race and at least two or three house races. the norfolk media market with

house, senate and columbus. >> romney visited twice. he was on this new york to virginia swing over two days. he's obviously focused on that. what do do you with the markets? >> if you live in columbus, you will ask the sanctuary. >> shameless plugs? >> a group of people who fought a great deal and polarized politically and did manage to come together to sign the declaration of independence. >> they were polarized. >> they had regional differences that were immense and they -- >> you took my vote for president and you have until 4:00. >> very forward in the article. the front page of the "washington post" on eric holder. >> i have a shameless request.

when did king george sign the declaration of independence? coming up next. chris jansing. have a safe fourth. see you back thursday. i'm only in my 60's... i've got a nice long life ahead. big plans.

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