together for the common good. america loses her advantage when compromise becomes a dirty word, shouting valued over dialog and when reasonable minds surrender the stage to shar low tans. when americans focus on that which unites us we're unstoppable. happy birthday, america. that's "hardball" for now. >> six titles the major eater of all time, grabbing six mustard belts. >> 68, the unofficial right now nor joey chestnut. >> i feel good. it was a great win. i feel bad for the audience, they were pushing me and i wanted to give them a new record. hopefully next year. i'm happy to come out with a win. it's fourth of july and i'm super happy.

>> good morning. it's thursday, july 5th. welcome to "morning joe." i'm lawrence o'donnell, pinch hitting for joe, mika, and willie. hope everyone had a great fourth of july. and joining me this morning, we've got the whole team here. the host of msnbc's politics nation, president of the national active network al sharpton, co-host of msnbc's 3:00 p.m. show "the cycle" and in washington, political correspondent sam steinen and burlington, vermont, former chairman of the democratic national committee, dr. howard dean. so, gang, it turns out that mitt romney decided to take on the job of clarifying this whole penalty tax thing that eric fernstrum created a problem with and did an interview with cbs to clear it up. let's see how he cleared it up. >> the the supreme court has the final word and their final word

is, that obama care is a tax so it's a tax. it's -- they decided it was constitutional so it is a tax and consugsal. that's the final word. that's what it is. >> have you changed your views on this? do you now believe that it is a tax at the federal level that the supreme court said it's a tax so it is a tax? >> i said that i agreed with the dissent and the dissent made it clear that they felt it was unconstitutional but the dissent lost, it's in the minority. the supreme court has spoken. there's no way around that. you can say you wish they decided a different way but they didn't. >> does that mean the mandate in the state of massachusetts under your health care law also is a tax and that you raised taxes as governor? >> actually, the chief justice in his opinion made it very clear at the state level, the states have the power to put in place mandates. they don't need to require them to be called taxes for them to be constitutional and as a result, massachusetts mandate

was a mandate, was a penalty, was described that way by the legislature and by me, and so it stays as it was. >> at the state level, you're saying the supreme court says that's different, that the federal government -- >> made it very clear. >> the powers are different between the states and the federal government? does that make sense to you? >> just take a read of the opinion, the chief justice states have police power and states can implement penalties and mandates under their constitutions which what is massachusetts did. but the federal government does not have those powers and, therefore, for the supreme court to reach the conclusion it did, the law was constitutional they had to find it was a tax and they did and, therefore, obama care is a tax. like it or not it's a tax. >> okay. we missed the shot of the day which was al sharpton's reaction to -- >> i mean -- >> no. we needed the isolated camera on al while the governor was speaking there. makes perfect sense. >> it does? i mean -- >> your opening line, lawrence,

he cleared it up. i think he confused it more. >> his job was to clear it up. >> his job was to clear it up and he failed miserably. the fact of the matter is, even "the wall street journal" is coming after them this morning. this is adding to the confusion. first of all the supreme court did not say that romney care or what he did in massachusetts was not a tax. so first of all he's distorting what was said. beyond that, what happened at the federal level was what he did at a state level and if it's a tax at a federal level it was a tax when he did it in massachusetts. second of all, it was his spokesman that came out, several days ago, less than a week ago, right on this station and said it was a penalty, not a tax. so he's arguing with his own campaign. he's not arguing with anyone else. and lastly, the supreme court, one person, john roberts, said it was a tax. a lot of the others affirmed that it was constitutional --

the other supreme court justices using the commerce statute. so again, either he doesn't read it well or he's trying to have it both ways. >> let's roll chuck todd's tape when he asked eric fernstrum the question last week and last week, of course, it was a penalty according to the camp. >> the governor believes that what we put in place in massachusetts was a penalty and he disagrees with the court's ruling that the mandate was a tax. >> so he agrees with the president, but he agrees with the president that it is not -- and he believes you shouldn't call the tax penalty a tax, you should call it a penalty or a fee or a fine? >> that's correct. >> governor dean, you've run a presidential campaign and other campaigns, just at a campaign level, what is this like when, you know, a spokesman for your campaign goes out there and you have one of two words you to pick to describe something? that's it. one or the other.

he picks one. and you decide okay, that's not the right word, now it's your job as a candidate to go out there and save the day, and clarify everything. what do you think governor romney was going through when he was trying to get these things clarified. >> one is, obviously, the confusion inside the campaign which makes the campaign look not so great. i mean if you can't sort your way out of this how will you run the white house? the other problem is, this is a much bigger problem, they shouldn't be talking about this. the american public by about 56% wants this question to be -- to go away. this is an argument that helps their base, but their base isn't the problem. the swing voters are their problem. so for them to every day they spend talking about clarifying this and the health care that is a day they're not talking about the economy and most importantly, for mitt romney, they're not talking about how mitt romney can connect with ordinary americans since 70% of them think he's favor of the 1%.

this is a disaster, not because the press secretary and the candidate are disagreeing, that's not good, but what's really bad, from his point of view, he's losing every day this goes on, a day he's losing traction in the presidential race and he doesn't have a lot to lose. >> see, how is this playing inside republican world and rick santorum told us this day was coming. said repeatedly this is the worst guy -- in fact, i think we have it ready to go. let's listen to santorum. he told us this day was coming. >> this is so important, yet mitt romney agreed with barack obama on every single thing that he did. why would we put someone up who is uniquely, pick any other republican in the country, he is the worst republican in the country to put up against barack obama. >> that might be my favorite quote. the entire campaign. it's not just he's not the worst of us potential candidates here.

the worst republican in the country, which includes you, worst of you. >> yeah. >> he was right. >> yeah. >> on this subject. >> yeah. i've been saying for a few years now actually that mitt romney is uniquely challenged as a candidate, not just because of romney care, but also because it's kind of a terrible time to be a wealthy guy and run for president. we're in the midst of this argument over class and he's sort of puts all of that under a microscope. i'm not saying he's not qualified, but he's a uniquely challenged republican candidate right now. and this is exactly why romney wanted to pivot off of health care quickly. the gop base and congressional republicans want to talk about the supreme court's decision and how this is going to help them down ballot, mitt romney knows this is a loser for him and the fact he's allowing his spokes person to say something really

nuanced and weird and he goes out and tries to sort of clarify with more nuance, i think means they're just trying to survive this and get to the next argument. they've been a very disciplined campaign so far and i think this is an area where they're realizing they have some weaknesses which we already knew, and they're hoping to get through it. >> the obama campaign is enjoying it. david axelrod mocked the romney campaign's mixed message on twitter, quote, if romney were in the white house, parsley would be aen official vegetable, twister national pasttime. "the wall street journal" is chiming in saying the romney campaign is trying to play it safe these days, don't know how to get through this. >> the only good news here, lawrence, this is the middle of july and not many people are paying attention. this is not a good thing to have happen. >> of all days of the campaign, this would be the day, wouldn't

you want this to be the story, july 5th, the day we're doing "morning joe." that would be the day. so -- >> this is the highest ratings day of the year, what are you talking about? >> sam stein, does the campaign just hope by next week we'll be on to another subject? isn't that the basic bet they're making on the whole health care thing? >> yeah. keep in mind, tomorrow we get the jobs report numbers for june and, you know, you can make a guess that those are going to actually succeed any discussion on health care if they end up being as poor as the last jobs report numbers. the conversation has a way of getting back to the major issues or the major issue which is the economy which i guess is what as his point was in the first place, the only thing that i would like to point out, though, is that the key part of the fernstrom quote is when he said the governor believes. he wasn't taking a campaign position. this is mitt romney's position relaying it for the world. you know, that is -- that's

what's contradictory here, he was giving romney's position. how are we supposed to believe what he says going forward when matters of health care is up to viewer decisions but i thought that was remarkable it took only two days for mitt romney to have to come out and say. the mandate i talked to jonathan gruber who worked for obama and romney on both their health care plans, he says as a legislative instrument, the mandate is basically identical between the two. we're arguing a thing of semantics here. the actual legislation they introduced with respect to the mandate is virtually identical. call it a tax, a penalty, whatever. it's the same. >> it's actually enforced the same way, in massachusetts on your tax return you have to submit -- >> yes. i grew up there. >> they have to put the proof of health insurance file it with their tax return. >> i think that's right. actually, the only argument that romney had and he made it maybe a couple years ago, but he really abandoned it, was the

tenth amendment issue, sort of a states rights kind of issue. abandoned that and then the supreme court ruling made that null anyway. but that would be the only area of nuance he has to go because they are so similar. >> yeah. i think that sam made the real relevant point and that is, that eric did not say this is the campaign's position. >> right. >> he said the governor believes. and we can say all we want this is the right week for it, in this age of social media, and commercials we're going to see eric and romney on commercials, super pacs will use that. this is not going anywhere. and any good reporter, would press romney said he said you believed this. did you tell him that or was he guessing that. it's going to be pressed. if you don't believe that, let romney come on "politics nation" i'll press him. >> we knew romney was going to have to answer for mass care, for romney care. >> eric was going to say he

said -- >> he really got thrown entire primary without being challenged on this. everything but romney care, except for senator santorum. we knew this day would come. i don't think we knew how it was going to be handled and when it was going to come. >> or mishandled. >> this week. >> another interesting point, another interesting point on this one, david gregory brought it up last week on "meet the press," less than 1% of people from massachusetts actually quote/unquote paid this tax, so for this to -- for the republicans to say this is a massive tax increase is as many things they say completely factually incorrect. and that -- you know, this is not a winning argument for mitt romney. he can't win this argument. he's basically obama care and romney care are the same. very few people have paid sort of a tax. this is nonsense and i think -- i actually think at the end of the day, it is possible that the health care bill will actually help barack obama get re-elected. i think he will be re-elected.

538.com has a piece on it yesterday that shows that if the election were held today, obama would get close to 300 electoral votes. that's pretty extraordinary. >> well, the president is taking his first bus tour starting this morning, i guess. re-election -- of the re-election campaign going to ohio, pennsylvania. the latest quinnipiac poll shows the president leading mitt romney in both places, up six points in pennsylvania and in ohio the president leads romney by nine points. both states the president's message is bolstered by an improved jobs situation in those states. the unemployment rate in ohio and pennsylvania just over 7%, nearly a full point below the national average of 8.2%. this is a uniquely challenging geography now for mitt romney. >> it is. two things, one, two days ago, polls had -- cnn poll had romney up in battleground states. these are snapshots of minutes

apparently. and secondly, you know, i think romney -- >> depends on the time of day. >> it does. >> where the sun hits the horizon. it's up to romney to go into these states where employment is better than the national average and say these are not because of the president's policies if they were you would make the natural conclusion unemployment would be down everywhere. it's a hard sell but that's what he is challenged to do in these states. >> in ohio, there's plenty of evidence that the president's policies with the auto bailout? particular had something to do with that. >> that's another huge problem for -- see, this is the problem. santorum may have been right. he's probably the worst candidate of the field, even though the best organized and probably the most capable probably the worst candidate of the field because when you go -- if you need to win michigan and ohio and pennsylvania in order to win the presidency, and he has to win ohio, he must win ohio if he loses ohio he's done, your record is to have opposed at industry, there are probably

more auto industry jobs in ohio if you include the auto parts supply system than in michigan and he's going to go in having opposed the bailout of the automobile companies. you know, it with you a great quote in a paper in a paper this morning that said, from an autoworker in ohio, saying, you know, if mitt romney's policies had been in place when the auto industry went down, we would be like greece. romney keeps talking about we're going to be like greece, if he had been president we would have ended up like greece, at least in this guy's view. he has his work cut out for him in the midwestern states where manufacturing jobs were basically saved by barack obama who was willing to bail out the auto industry. >> sc's write about polls moving here and there. quinnipiac is one of the reliable, straightshooting polling organization, a lead of nine in ohio. >> a lead of nine. >> over republican -- >> but i think the lead is real and i think it's not only

because he saved at industry, it's working. every one of the major companies are going up in profits. i mean if you compare last year to this year, gm, chrysler, ford, 22% up. i mean so it's worked. if you contrast that with the fact that romney said let them go down, and not only did president obama save them, but they're making profits, which means they can expand and create more jobs, how do you campaign against that? i think in the words, he's uniquely chaelgd. >> governor dean, you have republican governors in those states who will presumably be on tak stages with the republican nominee who are trying to tell the audience that things are going bad in the country, that republican governor is trying to tell them things are going much better in my state, he has that little dissonance problem to deal with.

>> yeah. that is a problem. the memo that he put out last week or the phone calls or whatever that he was making saying look, don't play up the economy in your state, that didn't -- isn't going over so well with people like rick scott and john kasich from florida and ohio because they do want to go out and tell everybody in their state what great governors they are and how they've turned the economy around. and, of course, governor romney wants to make sure people feel terrible so they'll vote for anybody but barack obama. and that's essentially the core problem with the romney campaign. ehe's got two big problems. the first is, that people think he's for the 1% and not for the 99% by about three to one. the second problem that he has, is that he can't -- he is running a campaign that is all about don't vote for barack obama. he has not given a single message about why you should vote for mitt romney that is a positive message. if he has an economic plan, i don't think anybody in america can explain it to you except his press secretary. as we pointed out he doesn't

have a lot of credibility left. he has a huge problem. he has no positive program. it's all about the negativity. and the difficulty is that is something you do have to establish during the summer months, the doldrums month, because it's too late to start with your program in september or october. if some people haven't heard about it before september or october it's going to get lost in the noise of all those pac commercials and so forth that goes on. >> sam stein, the white house has to be happy when they start one of these bus tours into a battleground state, it's always great to be driving right into good poll numbers in those states. >> yes. i'm sure they're very happy and i agree with the points the governor made there. the only two things, only piece of cold water i'd throw on this is that there were some bad manufacturing news that came out recently and there's sort of people waiting to see how that sector does in the next jobs report which in turn could be a bad one. i'm a little -- i was a little surprised they were going into pennsylvania which is somewhat

reliable democratic state. obviously they're concerned about it. they don't want to lose it. if they were to lose it it would be a huge blow. the polling numbers look good there currently but these are snapshots in time and, you know, everyone's waiting to see how the economy plays out over the summer because that's really going to be the determining factor. so, you know, this bus tour is good. i agree with the governor, romney needs to put out an economic agenda but a lot is going to be determined by the jobs numbers. >> all right. we're going to be back with more on the tax or penalty debate. and we're going to talk about the medicaid provision in the supreme court decision coming up. let's see, ezra klein will join us next. and mr. chuck todd who got this whole penalty versus tax thing going. you're watching "morning joe," brewed by starbucks. with the spark cash card from capital one,

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whatever the politics,

today's decision was a victory for people all over this country whose lives will be more secure because of this law and the supreme court's decision to uphold it. >> it was a victory for people all over this country who are a little more secure because of this law. >> when the bill comes into effect, being a woman will no longer be a preexisting medical condition. victory fowoman. >> today is not a victory for one party or another, it is not a victory for an ideology, it is a victory for the american people. >> today's victory really was for the american people and now it really is time for us to move on. >> democrats and supporters of president obama's health care law were nearly all giddy with excitement over the supreme court's decision to uphold the individual mandate but while breathing life into that provision, did the supreme court also deliver a possibly fatal blow to the rest of the law? the decision to allow states to opt out of the law's medicaid

expansion. what does that do to the medicaid expansion? joining us from capitol hill, columnist for "the washington post" and msnbc policy analyst ezra klein and also from washington, nbc political director and host of "msnbc's the daily run down" chuck todd. i have to ask you, now that governor romney has issued a supplementary answer to the -- >> right. >> eric fehrnstrom answer to your question, of penalty or tax, where does this go from here. >> it's a reminder why many of us don't expect in our own reporting telling us that romney's not going to be spending a lot of time on health care, that it is -- as fast as the obama campaign wants to pivot from health care so does romney. we know why. it was a reminder, look at the line that romney -- i mean it was impressive verbal gymnastics what he tried to do, basically he didn't disagree with what

fehrnstrom told me, he just essentially said i've got to bide by the supreme court but he had this long, convoluted answer saying well, this wasn't, you know -- we called it a penalty in massachusetts, the supreme court wasn't talking about our law and trying to sort of have it both ways there. i think it's a struggle and i think it's a reminder why we won't hear a lot about health care but why so many conservatives from the get-go about mitt romney and we hear it this morning in "the wall street journal" editorial page why they were so much hand wringing about him because on the issue that the base of the republican party cares so much about, romney was kind of at odds. >> chuck, i got to ask you about the interview of the week, your fehrnstrom interview. when i watched it and i think a lot of other people's judgment was, okay this was the considered opinion of the romney campaign. this was not a surprise question. he knew he was going on your show. the question had to come. and it was my impression with no reporting on my part, just my

impression of what i was watching, that this was the product of a romney campaign meeting. this is what we are going to say. as we've pointed out already here, he said to you, it is the governor's position that this is what it is. it's a penalty. sitting there talking to him, as you look at the totality of the way the whole thing played out, is it your belief, do you understand that to have been the actual official position of the romney campaign at the time? that was not just something that he went off and did his own improvising on? >> no. i mean eric fehrnstrom doesn't improvise. the other thing to keep in mind about eric he's been with the governor for a long time, most of those folks, in the trenches. in '07 and '08, mitt romney had this long heated battle inside the republican primary about whether various fees that were in massachusetts and penalties were tax increases and they had to fight that.

what you saw with eric, you saw him making, you know, making sure that they stayed consistent with what they were saying in '06, '02 and '06 during the term and what they said in '07 and '08 and saying today. i think then you saw that in romney yesterday. he was taking pains to try to stay consistent with what he had said, with what fehrnstrom said. no, this was -- especially when you hear the way it was specifically worded, the governor agrees with the dissent and the dissent does not believe the mandate is a tax. they believe the mandate is unconstitutional. he was careful how he worded it. he doesn't go off on his own. >> let's get to the medicaid side of the story which you and i consider the big ignored by the media side of the story. this was the part of the law that the supreme court rewrote. made the medicaid expansion optional instead of mandatory. the reason the democrats made it mandatory they believe they had to or not all states would do it

and wouldn't get the coverage rate they need if they didn't make it mandatory. what do you think is going to happen rolling out here now that 50 states have an option of taking on this new medicaid provision which involves after the first three years, a 10% cost sharing for them, 10% might sound like not too much money, but in some states it's billions of dollars. >> in the long run what will happen is every state will participate and the question is, between now and then, as chuck today said, the single most important issue to republican voters is the health care law. even if mitt romney loses the election it is conceivable if you are a nikki haley or bobby jindal thinking about 2016 one way to endear yourself to the conservative base would be to the most recalcitrant, resistant opponent of the health care law and the way you do that is stay out of the medicaid expansion. that is not going to be a good deal for your state. for the first three years. if you stick it out for the

first three years, excuse me, you're missing a 100% cost sharing to the federal government. they will take all of the costs on themselves. that's an incredible deal. after that to 95, after that down to 90%. currently medicaid is a 57% cost share on the side of the federal government and everybody thinks it is a good enough deal to participate in. but at least for a little while we could see a gap in coverage and the difficulty here is the bill wasn't written for that. people making just above the poverty line they'll get subsidies, 100 to 133 get subsidies. the very poorest people, nothing to give them a subsidy in the bill because their subsidy is medicaid. you could see people caught in the very difficult trap over subsidizing folks who don't need it as much and we're not giving people anything at all. >> governor dean, the supreme court as ezra points out created a very mean doughnut hole there for people who are above the current qualifying income levels for medicaid but below the

income levels for the subsidies written into the law, are you confident that all 50 states will pick this up, especially in this republican world, the republican legislatures in states have to pass this as a new law, the governor has to sign it. in order to do the real reporting we have to check with every legislature and every governor. i have a feeling if 26 states went to the supreme court suing saying we don't want the medicaid provision and won that, why would those 26 states then take on this new cost? have we lost howard dean? >> i thought you were talking to ezra. >> no, sorry. >> here's the big problem with these governors. i have no doubt, ezra is right, they're going to take it eventually and b, no doubt that some of the right wingers will refuse the money. let's look at texas, for example, that's a problem they have an enormous number of

uninsured children and adults, 25% adults, 22% children and one of the best hospital teaching hospital systems in the united states. there's an amount of money which you're familiar with, so the viewers know it, called dish money, disproportionate share money, from the federal government to states, particularly to hospitals that have a lot of uncompensated care. well, as governor romney did in massachusetts, so did barack obama nationally. that money disappears with one exception. that money with one state's exception. that money disappears on the theory everybody is now going to be able to pay something. if all those poor people don't get medicaid and they don't qualify for insurance, the hospitals have to pick up that tab and they're going to lose all their federal money as a result of the law. so now, if you want -- if you're a bailer, which is a terrific medical institution, going to go to the state government and say you have got to put us in this program we're losing money hand over fist. i don't think texas wants to give up the status of having one

of the very best teaching hospital networks in the country, if -- to make a political point. there will be states that do this. i have no doubt south carolina is going to do it because they've been in the bottom tier for years and years in terms of health care and could have gotten themselves out of it if they wanted it. the pressure from the hospital system and doctors will be enormous on these governors. >> that's a good point. i forget it eliminates the disproportionate share which is hugely important and i can see how it would work that way in texas. you're a republican governor, you want to run for president, want to be considered on a vice presidential ticket slot at some point in your career, can you ever sign the obama expansion of medicaid in your state if you have national political ambitions? >> this is going to be something of a purity test. this is going to be a situation where some republican governors and legislatures will say, i didn't take the bailout. i didn't take the federal funding. i didn't take the medicaid. they're going to do this and i trust ezra's math, i'm sure ezra is right about how this is all

going to work out in each state. this is the point, while romney doesn't want to be talking about this, people in the state houses and folks, you know, congressional members absolutely do and they know that the polls suggest this bill is still widely unpopular. i don't know how long that's going to last, but it is still unpopular and republican members need to address that among their constituents. >> but there is a severe budget challenge here for states and that's why they made it mandatory. >> i think it is. >> you have state budgets where they're saying -- california, for example, we might have to cut 20 school days and -- because one of the big things that's crowding out all the budgets in the states is the current medicaid budget. >> no. i think you're right. i think they face that. but i think that the governor's right, governor dean, that as you get down to the real bottom line here, do you want to be able to say if i'm running for president as a republican in the primaries, that i didn't go in,

but i closed these particular teachers hospital and teacher school. i mean the tradeoff politically i think is real, real delicaica and in the end ezra is right they all have to come in, even the politics in the long run will not, i think, outweigh the risk of saying they had to sign on. >> chuck todd, take the last word on this medicaid provision. >> i would say this, i think the referendum on this is going to be in the state of florida. you have a conservative governor rick scott saying he's not going to participate, one of the republican governors, i think his re-election battle, it's one of the few places where this will be in a swing state where you have a large chunk of folks, not covered by the new provisions that would need the medicaid folks, so i think florida will be your battleground for this in 2014. this assumes, of course, that obama wins re-election. if it's romney all of this stuff is moot we're talking about. if the president wins

re-election and the health care plan goes forward, then look to florida and i think what happens there, if scott loses and this is a large issue and i think it would be, other republican governors will quietly cave. >> chuck todd we'll see you on "the daily run down" after "morning joe." could you be ready to go early? i don't know if i can make it all the way this morning. >> this is a lot for you, two hours. >> it's two hours of television. >> you didn't even have to do the three-hour. >> two hours of tv, that's half my work week in a normal week. >> you have the first word and lastword we're pushing the limits here. >> you're assuming he's working together. >> i am. i'm actually going to do a 10:00 p.m. show tonight. hardest working man at msnbc for one day. dr. howard dean, we'll see you again in the next hour. ezra cliniklein stay with us. coming up democratic super pacs raise enough money to keep obama in the white house? can they do that? we'll talk to robert draper about his piece in "the new york

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let's take a look at some of the morning papers. "the new york times" was palestinian leader yasser arafat poisend? he died in 2004 and now swiss researchers have found traces of a.nous nous element called polonium, radioactive element that was found on some of his belongings including his toothbrush. his widow requested his body be exhumed to reveal the truth about his death. the palestinian authority has agreed that could happen within days. los angeles times, steve nash is joining the lakers, the 38-year-old phoenix suns point guard signed a three-year deal worth about $27 million. l.a. gave up an assortment of draft picks to get the two-time league mvp. and from the london "daily mail," don't expect to see this athlete at the summer olympic games. this is from the 110 meter

hurdle event at the chinese university games. things didn't go as planned for the guy on the left as you can see, he clips the first few hurdles and then decides to do exactly what i'd do ignore them all, sort of worked and then sort of didn't, finished last and in san diego, a technical glitch during the city's big fireworks show caused all the fireworks to ignite at the same time which you think would be great, but the show lasted about 15 seconds. after which the crowd of 500,000 people were told to go home. the city has apologized for the error which is not going to be good enough. up next, the race for the campaign funds. can the democratic super pacs actually compete in the big dollar donations? that's coming up next on "morning joe."

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some are saying the president's being hypocritical, others are saying, and i think most of us agree around here, he doesn't have much of a choice if he wants to be competitive in this race. but is the president a hypocrite for championing a super pac? >> i'm going to go out on a limb and say no. >> gutsy move, axelrod. >> the bottom line here, is that the -- the citizens united decision was a bad decision from our perspective, it did open the floodgates but now the rules are what the rules are.

we see karl rove, the coke brothers and others talk about raising collectively upwards of half a billion dollars to try to defeat the president and we were faced with the situation as to whether we could afford to play by two sets of rules and the answer is, obviously, no. >> what are you going to do? if you can't beat them, join them. that was senior strategist to the president, david axelrod. "morning joe" back in february, when president obama gave the green light to donors to back the pro obama super pac priorities usa action. in his cover story for this sunday's "new york times" magazine contributor robert draper takes a look at the progress that super pacs have made so far, asking if the democrats can keep up with the republican money machine and robert draper joins us now from washington. so, can they keep up? that's the question, robert. >> well, the answer is they're not going to try because they know they can't. i mean if it's an arm's race

they've basically conceded the arms race, lawrence. on the republican side, super pacs will raise probably $800 million and priority usa's goal, the pro obama super pac, is $100 million. so, if they're going to win this war, they're not going to win it through -- they'll win it through asymmetrical warfare, a bomb approach of targeted ads they think will carry some devastating message. >> hey robert, it's s.c. here. i found the article so interesting on a number of levels. hearing how the campaign internally handled the chatter from ed rendell, cory booker, al ford jr. coming out in opposition to the president, showed tremendous discipline, that they were going to sort of let this happen. i wanted to just pull out a quick quote from the story and ask you to comment on it. you're talking about bill burton hanging out with some potential

donors, one of whom amber mosten wanted to know how the campaign was going to re-energize the democratic base that had been disillusioned and he says that's not our role, according to bill burton. and then he goes on to explain how the obama campaign might sort of deal with that, buts the super pac's role is something quite different. >> that's right. basically super pacs are about negative advertising. they're about telling the other guy's story and telling it in an unflattering way where the obama campaign is the cuss toadium of the obama story. you're not going to see ads from priorities usa any more than likely to see ads from cross roads the karl rove super pac in rove's case extolling governor romney and in burton's case extolling the accomplishments of president obama. instead what they intend to do is find a bumper sticker means, priority usa, of distilling down mitt romney and who he is in the

most unflattering way possible. >> can i just say something? one of the fascinating parts of the piece is how the painstaking effort that bill burton put in to securing this million dollar donation, goes on starts talking to the donor and the next day, he's going to put a $10 million donation into the romney super pac. a 10 -1 disparity right there. it goes to sew you there's so much more money on the republican side of the things than the democratic side of things. i was wondering, robert, why did bill in the first place put out that million dollar figure because he was bound to disappoint. that he could get to h million dollars was a watermark that seemed almost impossible to achieve. >> for one thing, i think he had to put out a number just so that would be democratic donors would see there was a lofty donor here. at the time it was put out, i think the view was the republicans would probably out-spend the democrats in the super pac side two or three to one but not, you know, 8-1 the way it is now.

but their sh tick all along is not we're not going to try to match them dollar for dollar. that's the wrong approach. the model for them is 2004. after all, when bush was run for re-election, act media fund, these two big political action committees set up by the democrats, raised a, t ton of money, $200 million. on the republican side there was a little outfit calling itself swift vote veterans for troops. they raised $10 million. they raised 120th of the amount. guess which side produced the more memorable narrative. whether they will admit it or not that's essentially the model that the democratic super pac has to take. >> hey, robert. one of the things that i thought it was interesting about the article buttive a been trying to put it into con next more broadly, all the discussion we have about super pacs is on the presidential level and arguably they're least effective there because people have strong opinions about mitt romney and barack obama already. you've got to do a lot to convince anybody to change their

mind about the presidency. on the republican side where there's a lot more super pac money flowing around, a large amount of it actually carl rove has promised will go into house and senate campaign, congressional campaigns, where people don't know the candidates as well, where the candidates can't win and barack obama can maybe draw last-minute donations to fend off a huge flood of money coming into it. how big of an effect do you feel like that will be? what we're watching presidential this could end up changing the outcome of the congressional races. >> i think you're exactly right, ezra. on the republican side, i'm not sure what -- for one thing, the democratic super pacs simply don't have the money to put on the congressional side of things. the republicans do, as you point out. we saw that playbook in 2010, right? we saw how congressle candidates, democratic incumbents and democratic challengers or malled by republicans -- republican super mack money who wetted democrats to obama which whetted them to nancy pelosi. and i think largely because, as you point out, these

congressional candidates and even incumbents aren't that well-known. they can really be swapped, can be defined in a very negative way by flooding the zone with negative ad money. yeah, i think we're going to see a lot of that in 2010. >> robert draper, thanks for joining us. the rest of the world can read your piece in the sunday "new york times" magazine. ezra klein, thanks for getting up this morning and joining us. we will have more with sam stein, the rev repd al sharpton. al, i feel really bad for these local merchants who are going to try to do tv advertising in battleground states. there's not going to be any -- sorry, we have no time to sell you. >> better sell all your goods now. >> it's gone. it's gone. all right. we're going to be back. this is new york state. we built the first railway, the first trade route to the west, the greatest empires. then, some said, we lost our edge.

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coming up next, it's rick santorum's, i told you so day, he said mitt romney was going to be in big trouble when health care came up in this campaign. and supreme court has brought it up and mitt romney is in big trouble on that subject. we've got a full hour of "morning joe" coming up next. we charge everything else... maybe it's time to recharge the human battery. only the beautyrest recharge sleep system

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♪ good morning. it's 8:00 a.m. on the east coast. 5:00 a.m. on the west coast. as you take a live look at new york city, i'm lawrence o'donnell in this morning for joe, mika, and willie, back with us on the set. the host of msnbc's "politics nation" and president of the national action network, reverend al sharpton. cohost of msnbc's new 3:00 p.m. show, in washington, political editor and white house correspondent for the hutton post sam stein. and former governor of vermont and former chairman of the democratic national committee, dr. howard dean. so, gang, it turns out that mitt

romney decided to take on the job of clarifying this whole penalty tax thing that eric created a little problem with and he did an interview with cbs to clear it up. let's see how he cleared it up. >> well, the supreme court has the final word. and their final word is that obama care is a tax. so it's a tax. they decided it was constitutional. so it is a tax and it's constitutional. that's the final word. that's what it is. >> have you changed your views on this? do you now believe that it is a tax, at the federal level the supreme court has said that it is a tax so it is a tax? >> i said that i agreed with the dissent and the dissent made it very clear that they felt that it was unconstitutional. but the dissent lost. it's in the minority. and so now the supreme court has spoken. there's no way around that. you can try and say you wish they would have decided a different way, but they didn't. >> does that mean that the mandate in the state of massachusetts under your health care law also is a tax?

and that you raised taxes as governor? >> actually the chief justice in his opinion made it very clear that at the state level, states have the power to put in placeman dates, they don't need to require them to be called taxes in order for them to be constitutional. as a result, massachusetts mandate was a mandate, was a penalty, was described that way by the legislature and by me. so it stays as it was. >> at the state level, you say the supreme court says that's different, that the federal government, the powers are different between the states and the federal government? >> made it very clear. >> does that make sense to you? >> take a read of the opinion if chief justice said the states have what's known as police power. and states can implement penalties and mandates and so forth under their constitutions, which is what massachusetts did. but the federal government does not have those powers and. therefore, for the supreme court to reach the conclusion it did, that the law was constitutional, they had to find it was a tax and they did. and, therefore, obama care is a tax. like it or not, it's a tax.

>> okay. we missed the shot of the day which was al sharpton's reaction to -- no, we needed the isolated camera on al while the governor was speaking there. makes perfect sense. it. >> does? >> you tell me. >> your opening line, lawrence, was that he cleared it up. i think he confused it more than -- >> his job was to clear it up. >> his job was to clear it up and he failed miserably. the fact of the matter is, even the "wall street journal" is coming after them this morning. this is added to the confusion. first of all, the supreme court did not say that romney care or what he did in massachusetts was not a tax. so, first of all, his distorting what was said. beyond that, what happened at a federal level was exactly what he did at a state level, and if it's a tax at a federal level, it was a tax when he did it in massachusetts. second of all, it was his spokesman that came out several days ago, less than a week ago,

right on this station and said it was a penalty, not a tax. so he's arguing with his own campaign. he's not arguing with anyone else. and lastly, the supreme court, one person, john roberts, said it was a tax. a lot of the other affirmed that it was constitutional to the other supreme court justices using the commerce statute. so, again, either he doesn't read it well or he's trying to have it both ways. >> let's just roll chuck todd's tape when he asked eric the question of the week last week and last week, of course, it was a penalty, according to the campaign. >> the governor believes that what we put in place in massachusetts was a penalty. and he disagrees with the court's ruling that the mandate was a tax. but again -- >> he agrees with the president -- but he agrees with the president that it is not -- and he believes that you shouldn't call the tax penalty a tax. you could call it a penalty or a

fee or a fine? >> that's correct. >> governor dean, you've run a presidential campaign and other campaigns. just at a campaign level, what is this like when, you know, a spokesman for your campaign goes out there and you have one of two words that you have to pick to describe something. that's it. it's got to be one or the other. he picks one. and you decide, okay, that's not the right word. now it's your job as a candidate to go out there and save the day and clarify everything. what do you think governor romney was going through when trying to get this thing clarified? >> there's two bad things about this, lawrence. one is obviously the confusion inside the campaign which makes the campaign look not so great. if you can't sort your way out of this how are you going to run the white house. but the other problem is, much bigger problem, they shouldn't even being talking about this. the american public by about 56% wants this question to be -- to go away. this is an argument that helps their base but their base isn't the problem. the swing voters are their

problem. so for them to -- every day they spend talking about clarifying this and the health care that is a day they're not talking about the economy and most importantly, for mitt romney, they're not talking about how mitt romney can connect with the ordinary americans since most 70% of them think he's in favor of the 1%. so i would say this is pretty much a disaster, not because the press secretary and the candidate are disagreeing. that's not good. but what's really bad is from his point of view is he's losing every single day this goes on, it's a day that he's not -- he's losing traction in the presidential race and he doesn't have a lot to lose. >> see, how is this playing inside republican world? and rick santorum told thus day was coming. rick santorum said repeatedly, this is the worst guy -- in fact, i think we've got it ready to go. let's listen to santorum. this is his day. he told us this day was coming. >> this is so important, yet mitt romney agreed with barack obama on every single thing that he did.

why would we put someone up who is uniquely, pick any other republican in the country, he is the worst republican in the country to put up against barack obama. >> that might be my favorite quote. the entire campaign. it's not just he's not the worst of us potential candidates here, the worst republican in the country, which includes you, worst than you. >> yeah. >> he was right. >> yeah. >> on this subject. >> yeah. i've been saying for a few years now, actually, that mitt romney is uniquely challenged as a candidate. not just because of romneycare but also because it's kind of a terrible time to be a wealthy guy and run for president. we're in the midst of this argument over class. and he's sort of puts all of that under a microscope. i'm not saying he's not qualified. but he's a uniquely challenged republican candidate right now. and this is exactly why. romney wanted to pivot off of

health care very quickly. the gop base and congressional republicans want to talk about the supreme court's decision and how this is going to help them down ballot. mitt romney knows this is a loser for him. and the fact that he's allowing his spokesperson to go out and say something really nuanced and weird and then he goes out and tries to sort of clarify with more nuance, i think means they're just trying to survive this and get to the next argument. they've been a very disciplined campaign so far. and i think this is an area where they're realizing they have some weaknesses, which we all already knew, and they're just hoping to get through it. >> the barack obama campaign is enjoying it. david axelrod mocked the romney campaign's mixed message on twitter. quote, if romney were in the white house, parsley would be official vegetable, twister, national past time. al, "wall street journal" is

chiming in saying these guys -- the romney campaign is trying to play it safe these days. they don't know how to get through this. >> lawrence, the only good news here, lawrence, is this is the middle of july. not very many people are not paying attention. still, this is not a good thing to have happen. >> of all days of the campaign, this will be the day. would you want this to be the story july 5th. the day we're doing "morning joe." that would be the day. >> this is the highest ratingses day of the year. >> that's right. sam stein, the -- does the campaign just hope by next week we will be on to another subject? isn't that the basic bet they're making on the whole health care thing? >> yeah. i mean, keep in mind tomorrow we get the jobs report numbers for june. and, you know, you can make a guess that those are going to end the discussion of health care if they end up being as poor as last jobs report number. the conversation has a way of getting back to the major issues or the major issue, which is the economy, which i guess is what

s.e.'s point was in the first place. the other thing i would like to point out though is the key part of the pehrnstrom's quote is, this is the position and he was relaying it for the a world. he was actually giving us romney's position. how are we supposed to believe what fehrnstrom says going forward? i thought that was remarkable that it took only two days for mitt romney to have to come out and say it. one other thing is the machine date, i talked to john, the m.i.t. economist who worked for obama and romney on both their health care plans. he says as a legislative instrument the mandate is basically identical between the two. we're arc a famous sim mantics here. the actual legislation they said was virtual idea call. call it a tax. call it a penalty, whatever. it's the same. >> sam, it's actually enforced the same way.

in massachusetts, on your tax return you've got to submit -- s.e.? >> i grew up there. >> you have to put their proof of health insurance, file with it their tax return. >> i think that's right. and actually the only argument that romney had, and he made it maybe a couple of years ago but he really abandoned it, was the tenth amendment issue, state's rights kind of issue. completely abandoned it and the supreme court ruling kind of made that null anyway. that would be the only area of nuance he has to go because they are so similar. >> i think that sam made the relevant point. and that is that eric did not say this is the campaign's position. >> right. >> he said the governor believes -- and we can say all he wants is the right week for it. in this age of social media and commercials, we're going to see eric and romney on commercials, super pacs will use that. this is not going anywhere. and any good reporter will press

romney saying, he said you believe this. did you tell him that or was he guess that? and it's going to be pressed. if you don't believe in mitt romney, come to "politics nation." i'll press him on it. it's not going anywhere on july 5th. >> we knew that romney was going to have to answer for mass care, obama care. we didn't know how long it was going to take. he got thrown an entire primary without being rigorously challenged on this. we knew this day would come. i don't think we knew how it was going to be handled and when it was going to come. this week. >> another interesting point -- there's another interesting point on this one, david gregory brought it up last week on "meet the press." massachusetts quote, unquote, less than 1% paid this tax. for the republicans to say this is a massive tax increase, as many things they say, completely factually incorrect. and, you know, this is not a winning argument for mitt romney.

he just can't win this argument. he's basically obama care and romney care are the same. very few people have paid any sort of tax to do with this. this is nonsense. i actually think at the end of the day it is possible that the health care bill will actually help barack obama get re-elected. i think he will be re-elected. 538.com had a piece on it sterday that shows that if the election were held today obama would get close to 300 electoral votes. that's pretty extraordinary. >> the president is taking his first bus tour starting this morning, i guess. re-election -- of the re-election campaign, going to ohio, pennsylvania, the latest qui quinnpiac poll shows him up six points in pennsylvania. in ohio, in both states the president's message is bolstered by an improved job situation in those states. the unemployment rate in ohio and pennsylvania are just over 7%. near lay full point below the

national average of 8.2%. this, s.e., this is a uniquely challenging geography now for mitt romney. >> it is. two things. one, two days ago the cnn poll had romney up in battleground states. these are snapshots of minutes apparently. and secondly, you know, i think romney -- >> depends on the time of day. >> it does. where the sun hits the horizon. it's up to romney to go into these states where employment is better than the national average and say, these are not because of the president's policies. if they were, you would make the natural conclusion that unemployment would be down everywhere. it's a hard sell. but that's what he is challenged to do in these states. >> governor dean, in ohio there's plenty of evidence that the president's policy with the auto bailout in particular has something to do with that. >> that's another huge problem in is the problem. santorum may have been right. he's probably the worst

candidate of the field. even though he's the best organized and probably the most capable, he's probably the worst candidate in the field because when you go we -- if you need to win michigan and ohio and pennsylvania in order to win the presidency, and he has to win ohio, he must win ohio. if he loses ohio, he's done. and your record is to have opposed the auto industry, there are probably more auto industry jobs in ohio if you include the auto parts supply system, than there are in michigan. and he's going to go in having opposed the bailout of the auto deal companies. you know, it was a great quote in a paper this morning that said, from an auto worker in ohio saying, you know, if mitt romney's policies had been in place when the auto industry went down we would be like greece. romney keeps talking about we're going to end up like greece. if he were president we would have ended up like greece, in this guy's view. he's got his work cut out for them in industrial states where manufacturing jobs were basically saved by barack obama

who was willing to bail out the auto industry. >> s.e. is right about polls being all over the place. they move here and there. quinnapiac is one of the straight shooting polling organizations. a lead of nine over republican. >> a lead of nine. but i think the lead is real. and i think it's not only because he saved the oil industry, it's working. i mean, every one of the major companies are going up in profits. i mean, if you compare last year to this year, gm, chrysler, ford, 22% up, i mean, so it's worked. if you could trash that with the fact that romney said let them go down and not only did president system save them but they're making profits, which means they can expand and create more jobs, how do you campaign against that? i think in the words of s.e., he's uniquely challenged. >> and governor dean, you've got republican governors in those states who will presumably be on

stages with the republican presidential nominee, who's trying to tell the audience that things are going very badly in this country. that republican governor is trying to tell that same audience, hey, things are going much better in my state, in our state. he's got that little problem to deal with. >> the memo he put out last week or the phone calls whatever he was making saying, look, don't play up the economy in your state. that isn't going over so well with people like rick scott and john casey from florida and ohio because they do want to go out and tell everybody in their state what great governors they are and how they turned the economy around. andsh of course, governor romney wants to make sure people feel terrible so they will vote for anybody but barack obama. that's essentially the core problem of the romney campaign. he's got two big problems. the first is that people think he's for the 1%, not for the 99%, by about 3-1. and the second problem that he has is that he can't -- he is

running a campaign that is all about don't vote for barack obama. he has not given a single message about why you should vote for mitt romney that is a positive message. coming up next, lost on long island. the new hbo documentary chronicles, the casualties of the great recession and four people who are struggling to hold on to the american dream. we'll talk to the film's director mark levin next. but first, here's bill karins with a check of the forecast. bill? >> well, good thursday morning to you, lawrence. temperatures continue to be the big story across the country. what a fourth of july it was for the heat. one of the hottest fourth of julys our country has ever seen. i mean wide spread, from the rockies to the east coast. a look at all the major cities above 100 degrees. how rare is this? highlighted by that 105 in st. louis, chicago continue to boil at 102. it's not like it was cool in the eastern city, either. washington, d.c. still about 800,000 people without power was 99 degrees. so what do we do today?

we're already starting to feel like the mid to upper 80s. 89 it feels like in richmond this morning. minneapolis at 87. the heat hasn't gone away and it won't until sunday or monday. so we have heat warnings in effect for minneapolis through chicago, down to st. louis and to the ohio valley. then we're really going to see the heat increasing in the eastern half of the country as we go through saturday. so forecast for today, it could be 103 today in chicago. 106 in st. louis. and notice from d.c. down through raleigh, continuing into the hundreds. the only cool spots on the map continue to be the west coast. but even there we're going to warm it up a little bit. it looks like even the northwest could see temperatures in the 80s and 90s by the upcoming weekend. so times square looks like saturday will be the hottest day in new york city. near 100 degrees. you're watching "morning joe" brewed by starbucks. people with a machine.

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being unemployed for two years is not just a financial loss, it's an emotional loss, it's loss of friendships. people disappear. you can't socialize. it changes your every facet of your life. i'm panic-stricken. i'm feeling as if i have absolutely nothing. i don't want to be helped. i want to just help myself, but what we want are jobs. what we need are jobs.

in my next job, and i will have a next job, i -- i will thank god every morning and every night for that job. >> that was a clip from the new hbo dock may it please the courtry "hard times, lost on long island." it follows four families in this recession as they struggle to find work. joining us now is the film's emmy wing director mark levin. mark, when i think of a dock men tearian getting to look into the emotions and lives behind the unemployment statistics, i think you go to one of the industrial centers of the country, you go -- is t. so-called rust belt areas, long island? >> i think you're right and a lot of people have gone to the rust belt deindustrialized america. what we wanted to do is go to kind of the birth place of what we would think of as the suburban dream and leavitt town really, after world war ii became the model for the new su

bur ba and the local contract that we grew up with. and also we've heard so much mischaracterization of people who are out of work. the moocher class, lazy, you know. it's them. it's not us. well, maybe it's -- so here you go into neighborhoods that look beautiful, that we would all like to live in, grow up in, nice houses, nice cars. and yet behind those doors people are kind of collapsing inside, disappearing really. the idea was a snapshot that would humanize both the statistics that we repeat over and over but also like kind of break down it's them, it's somebody else. no, it's your neighbor, it's your friend, it's your family, it's us. >> al sharpton, you and i have both been lost on long island at different times. >> different ways of being lost, too. >> this is a different story. and you see -- i mean, i see in the woman that we just saw that her fall may be from a higher

place in the employment world than others have falling in unemployment but there's a lot of pain there. >> yeah. i think that what is interesting about this documentary, and i think it's very good, is that, one, you are dealing with people that have not had to wrestle with this kind of status of being unemployed and suffering. so it's one thing to grow up poor or to be used to that environment. it's another to know what you're missing and to really say that this is not who i'm supposed to be. it's a different kind of psyche. the other thing i think, though, is what he has said, and he's absolutely right, it gives americans that watch this, these are not people that are lazy or that are looking for a handout. they're not your typical people that we say in some kind of subconscious way, it's their fault because these people are not those that are perceived to have created this situation because they weren't in that situation. and i think it drives home with

this recession really did to americans. >> sam stein, get in here. >> i just had a couple of questions. one is, what do these people do with the material possessions, the way they handle their lives? do they go about making ingestments to their quality of life? two, these you are focusing on a distinct neighborhood. how is a community -- has the unemployment crisis effected that neighborhood? >> well, two things. one, on the material. there was an example of a woman who was selling her engagement ring. in fact, when we first screened the film at a festival out on long island her two sons came. they were not even aware until they saw the film that their mom went to a food pantry to get food for the family. so, you know, tastarting to sel off possessions is part of the story. as far as the commune tirks i think what most shocked me is how many people have internalized the message that it's their fault. you know, there's something wrong with them, they're losers.

even if their life has been successful, they've had successful profession alives, done well, the isolation is amazing. you don't go to an unemployment office anymore like you used to. it's all done, you know, over the web. and actually what we discovered is diners are one of the few places where the long-term unemployed hang out because they can get wi-fi there, you can buy a cup of coffee. and a number of the support groups that we met to find some of these people all meet in these diners. that was one of the few community gathering places. >> you know, i'm wondering, long-term unemployment insurance has become something of a political football. and there are some, you know, one argument is these are the people who need help the most right now. the other argument is long-term unemployment insurance actually prolongs unemployment. i'm wondering what kind of attitudes you confronted. your subject there just said we don't want help. >> one argument is right and one argument is wrong. >> all right, lawrence. what kind of attitudes did you confront in this film? >> well, i certainly didn't see

the lazy moocher, you know. the desperation. there's a whole other side of the ledger which is how you find yourself, you know, your identity. your sense of self. and to see it, it's almost like these people have disappeared. what amazed me is that sometimes their neighbors don't know. and then when they find out their neighbors start sharing with them, a story, hey, i'm in somewhat the same situation. so i think as far as the political argument goes, there's a desperation. and there's also a sense of, i have something to offer. you hear one of the guys say, i'll drive a fedex truck for the holidays. sorry. you're over-qualified. or a guy who has two masters degree in business, i should have become a plumber. >> right. right. >> you know, it's this human capital that is going to waste. especially for older americans. you know, 50 and over, if they're out of work for a year or two, it gets tougher and tougher to get back in the job market. and yet there's an incredible

amount of experience and wisdom that we're just tossing on the side. >> when you lose a job now in america and our employer-based health care system, you also lose your health care. we have a clip about that. let's take a look. >> sure. >> i have a bulging disk in my neck. my hands are numb. and anxiety, depression, anxiety, i guess. i'm on medication for that, too. i can't go without insurance, especially now. it's just not right. like i've been working since i was 15, straight through over the years. i never used those benefits. you know, like i worked hard for those benefits. now i'm 50 years old and i can't get them. i'm broke. i'm broke. i'm bankrupt. i'm done. you know? i'm in the lower half. i don't make any money. >> how did you get their trust to be able to have those kinds of intimate conversations?

>> that was difficult. i'll be honest with you. we met lots of people through different social services and these support groups and networks. they were all willing to talk off the record, but very few of them were willing to go on camera because of that sense of shame, because the neighbors are going to find out. even one of the things that shocked me when we showed the film is people in the audience standing up and saying, i've never had the courage to say this, but my sister's been living in our basement for the last nine months because she's been out of work, or an uncle is in the attic and we're collecting his disability so that we can just pay the mortgage. so you can't underestimate this sense of shame but some of these people were courageness enough and desperate enough. that guy worked on wall street since he was 16 years old, nick. >> right. >> so, you know, for a guy like that who has been working since he was a teenager to all of a sudden be totally busted, as you said, i'm poor, i'm broke, i got nothing, it's tough but i give them a lot of credit for their

courage. >> al, it makes me wonder about the media because i'm realizing as i sit here with this protracted unemployment situation that we've had. we've talked about the numbers a lot. we talk about the numbers on our shows all the time. i have seen very few clips like this in the news media about the real human toll and the real human experience of this unemployment. >> no, i agree with you. and not only the real human toll, what kind of toll, because when we do hear about the unemployed of the long-term unemployed, it's usually a more urban setting, it's usually a minority. to show this, i think, really drives home how bad this recession hit america and how it is not people that are sitting around doing nothing expecting the government to take care of them. it is wall street people and others that really had the bottom taken out. and no one really wanted to deal with the economic devastation it's cost across the board. i think this is an important way of changing the optics of what

happened to this economy. >> marc, i'm wondering, when did you shoot this and have you checked back with any of these folks to see how they're doing now? >> we have. i don't want to give away the whole film. >> yeah. >> you know, there are some positive developments. but for the majority, it's pretty much the same. and what i would say is in terms of when we shot it, we started at the beginning of the summer of 2010, which if you recall the administration was terming the summer of the recovery. >> right. >> so there was some optimism that the stimulus was getting to people and that we were going to rebound and it was going to be more of a cyclical boom, bust, here we come, we come back. the principle photography we finished at the end of the year, after the republicans regained control, the congress, tea party we resurging. the extended benefits became a huge political football. there was a sense as the holidays approached of despair and i think when i look at the film now what i find unique is that it was a snapshot where we went from, oh, this is a bad

recession but we've been there before, to something fundamental has changed. the american dream or social contract itself is at risk. which obviously as you mep mentd earlier is a key thing in this political campaign. but i think that's the moment we captured, where all of a sudden it sunk in that this isn't just a two- or three-year thing. something has changed. not just on long island, all over america and maybe all over the developed world. >> sam stein? >> i wanted to jump off of al's point. we have a reporter at the huffington post who to focuses almost solely on human suffering, long-term unemployment. one of the horrible iron anies on this is if you long-term employed it hurts you from getting a new job because people look at your resume and wonder why you've been out of work so long. there's a bias against these types of people. to get over that hurdle is momentous. it's very difficult to jump back into the world of employmentle having not worked for, you know,

a year, maybe two years. and i'm wondering, as these people go on, that you document, do they get that sense of despair, does it kick in even worse and worse because they know they're being rejected for the mere fact that they haven't worked? >> yes. one of the examples is the opening character is almost a joe bly figure who survived all sorts of near disasters, including 9/11, in the world trade center as it collapsed and he survived. i make note of that because when i asked him what is it like to be out of work for over a year. he said, no problem. he said, i've been through much worse shs and he read off this litany of what he survived. nine months later this gentleman was looking at hit life insurance policy and considering what would his family -- would they be better off if he wasn't here. so you want to talk about despair. this is a guy that survived 9/11, survived colin ferguson's shooting on long island railroad, just amazing, and that's the toll it took.

>> the documentary is "hard times lost on long island." premiers this monday, july 9th, on hbo. what time? >> 9:00 p.m. >> how long is it? >> an hour. >> they can switch right over to "the last word." i think people should watch rachel because she puts a lot of this in context. dvr this, hbo is okay with that, right? >> yeah. >> they don't mind if they -- >> watch lawrence. >> and then -- don't watch it until at least 11:00 p.m., right? >> yeah. >> repeat. >> yeah. >> exactly. coming up, what will tomorrow's monthly jobs report look like? brian shactman is next from the mercantile exchange with a preview, plus a look at what might be the most recession proof job out there. i don't even know what that is. "morning joe" is back in a moment.

let's get a check on business before the bell. cnbc's brian shactman is live at the new york mercantile exchange. we have new weekly job numbers out, brian. what have we got? >> actually pretty good. we have a lot of news globally. rate decisions overseas. since you were talking about jobs, 374,000, down 14,000. a little bit better than

expected. although still a little higher than a lot of people would want. we have challenge a layoff report every month. that was at a 13-month low. we have adp which is a private sector employment which is 176,000 private sector jobs were added last month. you put all of this together, leading into tomorrow's government jobs report where expectations are for about a growth of 95,000. all throw three of those numbers, adp, challenger and weekly jobs claims, lead some to believe we might get a little better than expected number tomorrow. not the growth we are all looking and hoping for, but it is still job growth, none the less. >> and, you know, al, we teased the recession proof job. what's your guess, the most recession proof job? the answer, by the way, is on the front page of the "wall street journal." >> the "wall street journal" has had it. >> hairdressers. >> hairdressers because jobs cannot be moved overseas. that's the answer. >> and notice he threw that question to me. >> as al would know, you can't

k. not automate and you cannot outsource a hair cut. >> yeah. so, brian, that's what people should be looking for are those jobs that can't possibly be moved. >> well, you know, what's interesting though is they talk about high skilled, middle skilled, and low skilled jobs. the high skilled engineering top jobs, graduate degree levels, that market stays firm. the middle is krurked, manufacturing, middle management. the low skill, quote, unquote, low skill, because a lot of merit to it, hairdressers, fast food, there's growth there. there's a need for it around there are growing businesses. like i said, everyone needs a hair cut. >> brian shactman doesn't need a hair cut. thank you very much forgetting to us today. it looks good. it's fine. you don't have to think about it. coming up, the seven points that could tip the election. it's one of the top stories in the portico playbook. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 let's talk about fees.

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now from washington with this morning's politico playbook, senior political reporter from politico, jonathan martin. "the seven points that could tip the election." i'm going to rattle them off and then fight about them. number one, jobs and growth. we all agree on that one. number two, the u.s. credit downgrade, if that were to happen. number three, european calamity. four, the debates. five, convention speeches. six, romney's vp pick. romney's overseas trip is bunched in with that. >> right. >> and seven, possible mid eastern, north korean military strike. >> yeah. >> what do you think are the most -- i don't think all of those weigh the same. >> i agree. >> of those, what do you think would be the most important? >> i think the big two will be the monthly jobs report that we're going to have.

of course, once again, on friday. and then up through the election. and then also what don rumsfeld used to call the unknown is unknown, lawrence. that could be a north korean event, something in iran. it could also be something domestic, too. some kind of a major storm hits a u.s. city, you know, the power grid goes out like we're familiar with here in the washington area, for days at a time. so i think those are the big two. and then i would add the three debates, i think, are also going the to be really crucial. if you think about it, we haven't had two strong debaters head to head in a few presidential cycles. i think romney and obama are going to be much more evenly matched this time around than we've seen in quite some years, lawrence. >> al, how do you think the debates are going to go? >> i think -- i don't know that i would consider romney and barack obama evenly matched. >> more than mccain and barack obama, more than bush and kerry. yeah. >> if you comparing it to them,

yes. >> i am. >> one that was in some of the primary debates in '04, i think that president obama is a much better debater than romney, which gives romney the advantage because if he does better than expected, which is lower expectations. >> sure. >> it helps. >> s.e., on most score cards john kerry won more in the debates than george w. bush did. he did not end up winning the election. >> debates matter but they're not everything. he is right, the debates this particular campaign season are going to be, i think, influential. people want to see these two guys, the president and mitt romney, together, talking about the issues, laying out some of their plans. mitt romney has been specific on paper but he hasn't been specificin public and speaking. j.r., i want to know, did you guys consider syria/russia on this list? >> sure.

i think any sort of major national security, foreign policy event that you can't plan for or even kind of major domestic issue that you can't plan for. that can be a variety of things across the world. and here, every four years we invariably have something like that and there's no prediction what it's going to be or what the political impact is going to be. don't foet, four years ago there was that moment in august when russia invaded georgia. and that was part of the reason why biden was put on the ticket because at the moment, foreign policy was seen in august of '08 as so important, to pivotal. of course, the following month the economy collapses and that becomes the election. but you just don't know day to day, week to week what's going to happen and the political impact it's going to have. >> politico's jonathan martin, thanks for joining us. "morning joe" is coming back in a moment. the postal service is critical to our economy,

delivering mail, medicine and packages. yet the house is considering a bill to close thousands of offices, slash service and layoff over 100,000 workers. the postal service is recording financial losses, but not for reasons you might think. the problem ? a burden no other agency or company bears. a 2006 law that drains $5 billion a year from post office revenue while the postal service is forced to overpay billions more into federal accounts. house bill 2309 is not the answer.

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tomorrow on "morning joe," a special in-depth discussion on the american presidency, including what a modern day mt. rushmore might look like. that's tomorrow with joe and mika. and up next, what, if anything,

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welcome back to "morning joe." time to pretend relearned something today. sam stein, can you even pretend? >> i'd learned. we started, we had a cup of joey

chestnut. this is what the announcer said. i don't know if it's a keep or the emotions pumping through my veins but i'm overcome right now. that's why learned. >> not looking at that video. i cannot look at that. >> it's a beautiful american tradition. >> s.e., what did you learn? >> i learned that reverend al's hairdresser has 100% job security. >> cannot move that job over seas. >> you're okay, man. >> reverend al, what did you learn today? >> other than i can't outsource my head, i learned that lawrence can be the first word and the last word in one day. >> boy. notice i started at 7:00 a.m. they asked me to do the show, i said, yeah, if it starts at 7:00. >> shave an hour off. >> 6:00 a.m. you're working today at 3:00 p.m.? "the cycle." reverend al at 6:00 p.m. i will actually be doing 10:00 p.m. show tonight if i can stay awake. we're all going to be hanging in there. joe and mika will be back tomorrow. for now, it's way too early. it's time for -- what are we doing?